SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO -101 over Miami
David Phelps is favored here because of his 2.65 ERA and 69 K’s in 54 innings. That’s nice but here’s the problem: Phelps has not started a game this year. He’s made 50 appearances and is rarely asked to pitch more than one frame. There is a HUGE difference between facing three or four batters and then being asked to go five or six innings. There’s also a reason that David Phelps started the year in the pen and it’s because he’s a journeyman pitcher that has never had sustained success starting. Phelps has appeared in 160 MLB games with 59 of those being starts. He’s been demoted to the pen every single time he’s been given a chance to start. Reliever’s numbers mean squat when they are asked to start. Relievers are former starters that could not make it as a starter and that fits David Phelps to a tee. Previously, Phelps has lost his rotation spot to Tim Koehler, Chris Naverson, Phil Hughes (when Hughes was serving up jacks on a platter in New York), Kendry Flores and the Marlins were even considering replacing him with 29-year-old minor leaguer, Erik Cordier last season.
Speaking of last season, that’s when Phelps last started a game. He was pressed into a starting role again with similar results. Phelps was unable to hold up, as his skills deteriorated and more arm problems shelved him in August. A once-interesting strikeout rate has faded with swing and miss stuff in tow and only Phelps’ control in the first half of last year saved it from being worse. Phelps has eight walks in his last nine innings and that’s as a reliever. He’s not a set-up man or closer either, despite the three saves. Now he’s being asked to start in Colorado against one of the hottest teams in baseball.
The Rocks are just three games out of a Wild Card spot. They just went into Baltimore and New York (Mets) and reeled off five victories in six games before returning home to face the Dodgers, where they won two of three. Consistently, Jorge de la Rosa is one of the biggest under the radar pitchers over the past few years. Most casual fans have never even heard of him despite the fact that he’s been pitching at this level for over a decade. Before your eyes glaze over, check out trends in de la Rosa’s strikeout and groundball rates. Yeah, his control can sometimes be a problem but he seems to thrive when he’s pitching at Coors for some odd reason. Before you go, look at this three-year home/away split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA. Thanks for your time.
CHICAGO -1½ +172 over Baltimore
At age 32, Miguel Gonzalez has certainly paid his dues. His journey to get to the big leagues is a ESPN 30/30 tale and his journey to remain is even more interesting. One should never underestimate the heart of a fighter that refuses to give up. Four years ago at the age of 28, Gonzalez finally made his first MLB start after a long, circuitous road. Gonzalez missed all of ’08 and ’09 due to arm issues. He was originally in the Angels organization from ’05 thru ’08 before being selected by the Red Sox in the December ’08 Rule 5 draft. Boston placed him on the disabled list for the entire ‘09 season and eventually released him at the end of the ’11 campaign. Baltimore scooped him up and he gave them some quality innings from 2012 until 2015. The Orioles weren’t interested in him anymore (and neither were any other teams) so he signed with the White Sox on April 3 of this year.
Despite an ERA that ballooned from 3.23 in 2014 to 4.91 in 2015, Gonzalez remained remarkably consistent in both years. He started 26 games in both 2014 and 2015. He walked exactly 51 batters in both 2014 and 2015. Even his strikeout totals were consistent (111 K in 2014; 109 K in 2015). This year, Gonzalez is doing much of the same only his peripherals are improving. He has a BB/K split of 7/27 over his last five starts. He studies batters like nobody else because of his incredible need to succeed. He knows these Orioles hitters pretty damn well because he pitched for Baltimore for four years. Gonzalez’s bulldog mentality, his will and his pride makes him worthy of backing here, as this game (against his former team that gave up on him) will be like the seventh game of the World Series for Gonzalez. It’s incredible that nobody wanted him when teams are so desperate for starters. Oh, and BTW, Gonzalez is far superior to his mound opponent that the Orioles are paying 8.5M per for.
Yovani Gallardo has a BB/K split of 38/48 in 66 frames for one of the worst BB/K ratios in the league and also one of the worst K-rates in the league.Gallardo’ issues aren’t hard to pinpoint. First, there is his declining velocity. Gallardo’s average fastball is down to 88.7 MPH. His first pitch strike rate of 53% (45% in his last five starts) assures us that more walks are forthcoming. Gallardo is frequently behind in the count. While he used to be a big K-guy (9.0 K’s/9 from 2009-2012), he’s had an unimpressive rate for years. Gallardo has served up more fly-balls in 2016. With U.S. Cellular enhancing HR by 32%, that's only asking for trouble. Gallardo has walked 19 batters over his past 28 innings, leading to a WHIP of 1.81. He’s always pitching with traffic, he’s always behind in the count and he’s also pitching for a team that plays so much better at home than they do on the road. Favorites are usually not underpriced but this one is. We'll lay the runs here because of the tremendous value in doing so.
Boston +122 over L.A. DODGERS
Scott Kazmir is 9-4 after 21 starts to go along with 124 K’s in 116 innings. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that Scott Kazmir is on the verge of some blowups because he gets progressively worse after the first time through the order. He has a xERA of 4.88 the second time through and a 5.21 the third time through. Kazmir’s 41%/21%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is exactly the type of profile that gets blown up from time to time because of the number of fly-balls surrendered. That puts him at the mercy of hr/f %. Kazmir’s hr/f rate is 15%, which in turn makes Kazmir’s profile a very risky one to be spotting prices with. The nine wins and four losses look pretty on paper but Kazmir has a mere eight pure quality starts in 21 attempts. Kazmir’s regression started last game and it may not stop. A rising xERA trend combined with a BIG second half skills erosion last year will put even a 4.00 ERA at risk. He'll struggle to return a profit the rest of the way because frankly, he’s just not that good despite the K’s. Scott Kazmir has been overpriced all year and he’s returned a small profit thus far. Don’t expect the profits to continue. He lost as a -224 favorite last start to Arizona at Chavez Ravine and these Red Sox are superior to the Snakes in every way.
Steven Wright's knuckler is working wonders. Wright has emerged from nowhere to put up a 3.20 ERA through his first 21 starts with 15 (almost twice as many as Kazmir in a more difficult league and park) of those starts being of the pure quality variety. Wright has 114 K’s in 138 frames. He has a well-above average 11% swing and miss rate to go along with a 45% groundball rate. Knuckleballers like Wright are a rare breed, and while many traditional skill gauges weren't built around this style of pitching, our skills analysis simply does not support this type of success going forward. That doesn’t mean Wright’s success isn’t sustainable. He throws a hard knuckler and when it’s dancing, it’s very difficult to square up on. With knucklers, you never really know what’s in store, which is why we will not recommend playing one when favored. However, as a pup in this range, we’re more than happy to roll the dice against the Dodgers, who return home from Colorado having scored a mere nine runs in the three-game set.
