Coach Fletcher’s Friday Free Pick
Friday, August 14
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
The Pick Nationals -145
Scherzer Meets Cain in San Francisco
Max Scherzer has two subpar starts in a row. Matt Cain only has 2 decent showings in his 7 starts since coming off the DL. His last 3 have been progressively worse as are the innings he has tossed down from 6 to 5 to 4.
The Pitchers
If you just looked at Scherzer’s last 2 starts you might say “What’s the big deal?” And you would be right. In his last 2 starts he’s gone 6 innings twice and given up 7 runs, 12 hits, 3 bombs, walked 4 and struck out 19. Uh – 19 strikeouts in 12 innings will get your attention. So will 3 HR in 6 innings by the Rockies. But even these un-Scherzer like starts surpass those by Cain.
Scherzer, Nats Cain, SF
· 11-8, 2.44 era, 0.87 whip 2-3, 5.59 era, 1.59 whip
· 7-3, 1.87 era, 0.819 whip on road 1-1, 3.00 era, 1.00 whip
· 1-0, 3.32 era, 1.158 whip last 3 0-2, 7.80 era, 2.00 whip last 3
· 2-2, 4.15 era, 1.13 whip last 7 n/a
· 7-5, 2.82 era, 0.84 whip last 15 n/a
· 6-5, 2.95 era, 0.87 whip at night 1-1, 4.91 era, 1.41 whip at night
· 2-3, 3.40 era, 0.96 whip in July 2-2, 4.50 era, 1.32 whip in July
· 0-0, 5.25 era, 1.33 whip in August 0-1, 9.00 era, 2.44 whip in August
· LH hit .230 vs Scherzer LH hit .333 vs Cain
· RH hit .165 vs Scherzer RH hit .291 vs Cain
Bullpens Nats – 3.77 on road SF 3.18 at home
There is no doubt that Scherzer has regressed in July and August. But a bad Scherzer is still better than most and certainly better than a Matt Cain who has not shown much since his return from surgery. He’s allowed 13 earned runs in his last 15 innings. Don’t panic when you read that Scherzer is 1-3 vs SF with a 4.91 era. His last 3 starts were in 2009, 2011, 2012. Cains is 5-5 against the Nats with a 3.34 era but that was pre-surgery Matt Cain and those starts were in 20012, 2013, 2014.
The Hitters
Neither of these teams have played offensively to their potential. They both have had some hot streaks but consistency hasn’t happened. The Nats gave up the division lead to the Pirates and the Giants haven’t been able to dent the Dodger division lead.
Nats SF
· 4.1 runs per game 4.3 runs per game
· 4.4 runs per game road 3.7 runs per game home
· 4.1 runs per game vs RHP 4.4 runs per game vs RHP
· 4.3 runs per game last 7 3.1 runs per game last 7
· 4.1 runs per game night 4.5 runs per game night
· 8.34 hits per game 9.32 hits per game (3rd MLB)
· 0.99 HR per game 0.88 HR per game
· 13.13 total bases per game 14.16 total bases per game
· .249 batting average .270 batting average (2nd MLB)
· .251 batting average away .266 batting average home
· .392 slugging % .410 slugging %
· .315 on base % .326 on base % (5th MLB)
The teams are pretty even in scoring runs. The Nats have more HR power but most other numbers go the Giants way. I would say that the difference in offensive power does not make up for the difference in the quality of the starters.
Odds and Ends
As I said before, both of these teams are disappointments thus far. If they want to compete for the playoffs, they are going to have to heat up. And I suspect that Scherzer is more likely to shut down an opponent that Cain.
Nats SF (Thursday’s results not factored in this)
· 58-55 60-53
· Plus 0.2 run differential Plus 0.4 run differential
· 9-6 as road favorite (125-150) 2-0 as home dog (125-150)
· 27-32 road 31-24 home
· 4-8 in August 4-7 in August
· 34-38 at night 38-35 at night
· 43-43 vs RHP 44-43 vs RHP
· 29-26 vs team w/winning record 19-22 vs team w/winning record
· 8-12 vs team w/winning record 2nd half 2-8 vs team w/winning record 2nd half
· 2-4 last 6 1-5 last 6
· Washington is 12-8 against SF last 3 seasons
· Washington is 3-0 against SF this season
· Washington is 5-4 against SF in SF last 3 seasons
You can give SF the home team edge here if you like. The way these teams have played so far in August, you might as well throw out April, May, June and July. The Giants don’t do near as well as the Nats vs teams with winning records but they have other strengths.
Coach’s Conclusion:
We could have summed up the conclusion of this game with a simple study of the pitchers. There is such a huge gap between Cain and Scherzer that the Giants would have had to totally excel in offense to be even in this one. The difference in batting average against is frightening if you are an SF fan. Like I said, a bad Scherzer appears to out class Cain in his current form.
The Pick Washington - 145
