Dave Cokin
Friday Bonus Play 04:05 PM MLB
(967) BOSTON RED SOX (968) DETROIT TIGERS
Take: (967) BOSTON RED SOX +112
This week has not exactly been one to remember fondly for either the Red Sox or Tigers. Boston isn’t playing Tampa Bay anymore and just got swept by the Indians. Detroit is suddenly just a handful of games above .500 and the Tigers got run over at home by the rampaging Blue Jays. So we’ve got a pair of teams that should be very eager to right the respective ships tonight.
Rubby De La Rosa was sensational for the Red Sox in his first big league start of the season. The hard throwing righty dominated the Rays last weekend. This is a much tougher assignment to be sure. But if there’s a right time to be facing the Detroit lineup, this might be it as they’ve been a little off kilter lately. De La Rosa did a great job of adding and subtracting to his fastball in the impressive win, mixing in two and four-seamers, and his change was terrific. The key for De La Rosa is control. If he’s got it, he’s going to be tough. If not, batten down the hatches.
Drew Smyly starts for the Tigers tonight, and he’s part of the reason I like the dog. Smyly is way off right now. He’s getting into bad counts, running up very high pitch counts and the results get predictable when that happens. I also didn’t like the body language for Smyly in his Saturday start at Seattle. Whether or not he didn’t feel comfortable is something I don’t know for sure, but it sure looked like he was out of sorts.
The Tigers need innings from their starters. That Detroit bullpen is really shaky right now, and I’m not sure they can count on the right number of frames from Smyly tonight. The Red Sox are a patient team to begin with, and you can be sure they’re going to game plan off the scouting reports from the recent Smyly starts. If the lefty is not throwing strikes and getting ahead in counts, he could be in for a shorter than desired evening.
That Tigers bullpen definitely comes into play when analyzing this game. They’re almost in a no lead is safe mode right now with closer Joe Nathan in miserable form, and manager Brad Ausmus has made it clear no changes are in the works right now. What that means is that if this is close late, Boston has a considerable advantage with their late inning combo led by Koji Uehara.
I’m not convinced De La Rosa is worthy of backing as much as I am that Smyly is worth going against here. The bullpen edge on the Boston side is crystal clear. As for the offenses, believe it or not, the Red Sox are producing slightly better stats against lefties on the road than the Tigers are vs. righties at home. So I’m putting most of the check marks on the visitor’s side tonight, and with the number where it is, I like the chances of the Red Sox getting a win in the role of road dog.