SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +149 over BALTIMORE
After an extremely emotional and intense four-game set with the Red Sox, the Orioles return home to play a less important weekend set with the South Side and it may take a day or two to get their mojo back or their intensity higher. Meanwhile, the White Sox continue to win more games than they lose and are bringing intensity to every game. They’ve been a live dog all season so far and they’re still underpriced. While we’re not high on Miguel Gonzalez (RHP), he’s giving the South Side a chance to win when he takes the hill so we’re not going to focus in on his flaws. The price here is sweet and this one is more about fading the O’s/Miley combo.
Enter Wade Miley (LHP) and his 2.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 38 K’s in 31 innings. Miley is 30 years old and has never shown numbers like this in the past nor a strikeout rate this high. What gives? Well, there’s a distinct difference in Miley’s pitch selection this year, ramping his sinker way up and all but abandoning his change. His slider and curve are both accumulating whiffs and grounders, and his bolstered sinker is killing worms as well. That said, his stock has never been higher and we’ll let others pay for five weeks of greatness while we pay attention to seven years of mediocrity. Miley went 13 ineffective spring training innings by allowing 21 hits and eight earned runs. Aside from July of last year, his bottom line was awful again. When a pitcher comes in and does “new” things, the adjustment period by batters is usually swift. Miley walked five batters in his last start in five innings and has now issued 19 BB's in 32 innings. His 10% swing and miss rate does not support 38 K’s in 32 innings but once again, surface stats will influence the price.
NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will have today's posted sometime around 5:30 PM EST.
ATLANTA -1½ +177 over St. Louis
With a 2.45 ERA after five starts, Lance Lynn (RHP) figures to get some play here because the market pays for surface stats. We pay for skills and sub-indicators and while Lynn is absolutely serviceable, he’s not as good as his ERA suggests. In 29 innings, he’s walked 10 batters and struck out 25. That’s good but not great and it may surprise you to learn that the Braves have struck out the third fewest times in MLB. In his first two starts this year against the Cubs and Nationals, Lynn was hit rather hard and the Cardinals lost both games by scores of 6-4 and 8-3, respectively. In five innings in both starts, he threw 101 and 98 pitches, respectively. He then faced Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati in his last three starts and put up some great looking pitching lines but the results were better than the performances. Lynn’s first-pitch strike rate is a mere 53%. His fastball tops off at 91.5 MPH, which is down from his 95 MPH fastball before TJS in November of 2015. In his last start, Lynn had an ugly 37%/25%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split and he brings an xERA into this start of 4.02. Regression in Lance Lynn’s ERA may not happen here but regression is an absolute at some point and it very likely starts here.
St. Louis is 13-14 but there is nothing about them that looks promising this year. It’s also worth noting that both Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty both left last night’s game so their outfield just got a whole lot thinner. We’re almost certain that Piscotty will end up on the 10-day DL and there’s a pretty good chance that Fowler will miss a game or two and maybe much more.
Mike Foltynewicz (RHP) went 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 123 innings for the Braves last year. Mediocre results cloaked this fireballer's steady skills growth, but he closed with a flourish as control improved and his K-rate spiked, which was backed by a strong swing and miss rate. A blood clot delayed Foltynewicz’s start last season and then elbow woes arose in June. He appears healthy now and thus, a breakout looms. The good news for everyone reading this is that Foltynewicz is 0-3 and that sticks out. Foltynewicz has always had a big arm, which helped make him a top prospect in most publications a few years ago. He hasn't made much of an impact yet in the majors, but that is about to change. Foltynewicz has shown the ability to miss bats and showed growth elsewhere in 2016, as he harnessed both his control and fly-ball tendencies. He was particularly effective down the stretch, when he recorded 42 strikeouts, and only 10 walks, in his last seven starts in 39.1 innings. His excellent pure stuff, strong pedigree and early season returns (2.81/3.11 ERA/xERA) puts this Atlanta starter high on our buy list of undervalued starters.
COLORADO -1½ +205 over Arizona
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
5-6 +5.88 units
Chicago +149 over BALTIMORE
After an extremely emotional and intense four-game set with the Red Sox, the Orioles return home to play a less important weekend set with the South Side and it may take a day or two to get their mojo back or their intensity higher. Meanwhile, the White Sox continue to win more games than they lose and are bringing intensity to every game. They’ve been a live dog all season so far and they’re still underpriced. While we’re not high on Miguel Gonzalez (RHP), he’s giving the South Side a chance to win when he takes the hill so we’re not going to focus in on his flaws. The price here is sweet and this one is more about fading the O’s/Miley combo.
Enter Wade Miley (LHP) and his 2.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 38 K’s in 31 innings. Miley is 30 years old and has never shown numbers like this in the past nor a strikeout rate this high. What gives? Well, there’s a distinct difference in Miley’s pitch selection this year, ramping his sinker way up and all but abandoning his change. His slider and curve are both accumulating whiffs and grounders, and his bolstered sinker is killing worms as well. That said, his stock has never been higher and we’ll let others pay for five weeks of greatness while we pay attention to seven years of mediocrity. Miley went 13 ineffective spring training innings by allowing 21 hits and eight earned runs. Aside from July of last year, his bottom line was awful again. When a pitcher comes in and does “new” things, the adjustment period by batters is usually swift. Miley walked five batters in his last start in five innings and has now issued 19 BB's in 32 innings. His 10% swing and miss rate does not support 38 K’s in 32 innings but once again, surface stats will influence the price.
NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will have today's posted sometime around 5:30 PM EST.
ATLANTA -1½ +177 over St. Louis
With a 2.45 ERA after five starts, Lance Lynn (RHP) figures to get some play here because the market pays for surface stats. We pay for skills and sub-indicators and while Lynn is absolutely serviceable, he’s not as good as his ERA suggests. In 29 innings, he’s walked 10 batters and struck out 25. That’s good but not great and it may surprise you to learn that the Braves have struck out the third fewest times in MLB. In his first two starts this year against the Cubs and Nationals, Lynn was hit rather hard and the Cardinals lost both games by scores of 6-4 and 8-3, respectively. In five innings in both starts, he threw 101 and 98 pitches, respectively. He then faced Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati in his last three starts and put up some great looking pitching lines but the results were better than the performances. Lynn’s first-pitch strike rate is a mere 53%. His fastball tops off at 91.5 MPH, which is down from his 95 MPH fastball before TJS in November of 2015. In his last start, Lynn had an ugly 37%/25%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split and he brings an xERA into this start of 4.02. Regression in Lance Lynn’s ERA may not happen here but regression is an absolute at some point and it very likely starts here.
St. Louis is 13-14 but there is nothing about them that looks promising this year. It’s also worth noting that both Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty both left last night’s game so their outfield just got a whole lot thinner. We’re almost certain that Piscotty will end up on the 10-day DL and there’s a pretty good chance that Fowler will miss a game or two and maybe much more.
Mike Foltynewicz (RHP) went 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 123 innings for the Braves last year. Mediocre results cloaked this fireballer's steady skills growth, but he closed with a flourish as control improved and his K-rate spiked, which was backed by a strong swing and miss rate. A blood clot delayed Foltynewicz’s start last season and then elbow woes arose in June. He appears healthy now and thus, a breakout looms. The good news for everyone reading this is that Foltynewicz is 0-3 and that sticks out. Foltynewicz has always had a big arm, which helped make him a top prospect in most publications a few years ago. He hasn't made much of an impact yet in the majors, but that is about to change. Foltynewicz has shown the ability to miss bats and showed growth elsewhere in 2016, as he harnessed both his control and fly-ball tendencies. He was particularly effective down the stretch, when he recorded 42 strikeouts, and only 10 walks, in his last seven starts in 39.1 innings. His excellent pure stuff, strong pedigree and early season returns (2.81/3.11 ERA/xERA) puts this Atlanta starter high on our buy list of undervalued starters.
COLORADO -1½ +205 over Arizona
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
5-6 +5.88 units
