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Dunkel

Friday, May 5


San Antonio @ Houston

Game 737-738
May 5, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
116.827
Houston
127.375
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 10 1/2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
215 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-4 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Toronto

Game 735-736
May 5, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
121.556
Toronto
123.054
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3
214
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+3); Over
 
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Friday, May 5

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CLEVELAND (57 - 31) at TORONTO (55 - 35) - 5/5/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 188-232 ATS (-67.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 11-8 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 13-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (66 - 24) at HOUSTON (60 - 29) - 5/5/2017, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1001-874 ATS (+39.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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Friday, May 5

Lebron James was 15-21 on foul line in Game 2; all the Raptors combined were 14-19, but now the series is in Canada, where Raptors won five of their last six games. Raptors are 1-7 in last eight games vs Cleveland; Cavaliers won their last three visits here, by 26-3-4 points- over is 7-5 in last 12 series games, 8-2 in last 10 Cavalier games. Cleveland shot 54.7% from floor in Game 2, made 18-33 on arc- they’re 6-0 in playoffs (4-2 vs spread, 2-2 at home). Lowry has a bad ankle, is ??able here. Raptors are 4-7 vs spread in last 11 games as an underdog.

Parker is done for year for Spurs; he played 23-26 minutes in Games 1-2, had 18 points in 26:00 last game- it is a big loss. Spurs won seven of last nine series games; road side won five of last seven meetings. San Antonio won its last three visits here, by 10-6-2 points. Over is 2-0 in this series, after under was 4-0-1 in last five series games prior to this- over is 9-1 in Spurs’ last 10 games overall. Rockets were 9-24 on arc in Game 2, after a 22-50 performance in Game 1- Harden was 3-17 from floor. Spurs lost four of last five road games. Houston won its last four home games.

Second round playoff series:
Boston-Washington
Bos 123-111, -4.5, O216
Bos 129-119 O, -5, O218.5
Wash 116-89, -5.5, U218

Cleveland-Toronto
Clev 116-105, -7, O211
Clev 125-103, -7, O214.5

San Antonio-Houston
Hst 126-99, +6, O215.5
SA 121-96, -5.5, O215

Golden State-Utah
GState 106-94, -13, U206.5
GState 115-104, -13.5, O206

Favorites 6-3 (26-25-1)
Over 7-2 (29-23)
 
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Friday, May 5

Trend Report

7:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TORONTO
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games at home

9:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. HOUSTON
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
 
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Friday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+2, 214.5)

Cavs lead series 2-0

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (57-31 SU, 40-45-3 ATS, 52-35-1 O/U): LeBron James moved into second place on the all-time postseason scoring list when he passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (5,762), and his personal tally stands at 5,777. "You hear a name like Kareem, a guy who's done so many great things, not only as an individual but as a teammate," James told reporters. "Winning championships in the '80s and things of that nature and how many points he's put up. He's somebody you read about. I didn't get an opportunity to actually watch him play growing up, but I just read about his accomplishments and things he was able to do, so, it's pretty cool." Point guard Kyrie Irving set a personal playoff high for assists (11 in Game 2) for the second straight contest and is averaging 23 points and 10.5 assists in the series.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (55-35 SU, 48-41-1 ATS, 44-42 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry and shooting guard DeMar DeRozan were hurting after the Game 2 loss for different reasons. Lowry scored 20 points but departed the game with a sprained left ankle - he says he will be ready for Friday's game - while DeRozan experienced a dreadful contest in which he tallied just five points on 2-of-11 shooting. "It sucks. To lose like we did, to play like I did, it sucks," DeRozan told reporters. "It's frustrating. Now I just have the added time having to wait till Friday night to redeem myself."

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 2.5-point home dogs in a critical Game 3 against the surging Cavaliers, that number was quickly bet down to an even 2. The total hit the betting board at 215.5 and has been lowered to 214.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - PG Kay Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).

Raptors - PG Kyle Lowry (Questionable, ankle).

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

* Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 overall.

* Over is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 home games.

* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.




San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (-4.5, 215)

Series tied 1-1

ABOUT THE SPURS (66-24 SU, 46-42-2 ATS, 50-38-2 O/U): The Spurs thoroughly outplayed Houston in the latter stages on Wednesday but will be without point guard Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason after he suffered a ruptured left quadriceps in Game 2. San Antonio star forward Kawhi Leonard fueled his club's rebound with 34 points, eight assists, seven rebounds and three steals in Wednesday's victory. Harden hasn't played like an MVP candidate during the first two games and is averaging 16.5 points on 9-of-30 shooting. Harden did average 12 assists in the two contests but his overall numbers are a significant dropoff from the regular season when he averaged 29.8 points, 11.8 assists and nine rebounds in four games against the Spurs. Forward Ryan Anderson tallied 18 points on 7-of-9 shooting in Game 2 and drained four 3-pointers in each of the first two games.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (60-29 SU, 46-43 ATS, 45-43-1 O/U): Houston's sharp Game 1 effort was a stunner and the Rockets couldn't stay in the follow-up contest with star point guard James Harden suffering through a 3-of-17 shooting performance while scoring just 13 points. "I just missed shots," Harden told reporters after Game 2. "I didn't convert layups. We knew they were going to come out with some aggressiveness. We just have to go out there and take care of business and do the things we didn't do (in Game 2)." Parker fell to the floor after attempting a short jump shot with 8:52 remaining and immediately grasped his leg and it was clear the injury was likely of the severe variety when he had to be carried off by two teammates. He underwent an MRI exam on Thursday, which pinpointed the nature of the injury and San Antonio will now ask backup point guard Patty Mills to step up and lessen Parker's loss. "I can tell you one thing, that we're all ready," Mills said after Game 2. "We're all ready to step up and make an impact."

LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened as 4-point home chalk for Game 3 and that number has been bet up half-point to 4.5. The total hit the betting board at 215.5 and has been faded half-point to 215.

INJURY REPORT:

Spurs - PG Tony Parker (Out for Season, knee)

Rockets - SG James Harden (Probable, hip), PF Chinanu Onuaku (Elig, suspension).

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

* Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

* Over is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 overall.

* Over is 8-1 in Rockets last 9 Conference Semifinals games.

* Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
 
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Friday, May 5


Edmonton @ Anaheim

Game 5-6
May 5, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
11.301
Anaheim
12.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Anaheim
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Anaheim
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Anaheim
(-140); Over

Nashville @ St. Louis

Game 3-4
May 5, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nashville
13.150
St. Louis
10.549
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nashville
by 2 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-115
5
Dunkel Pick:
Nashville
(-105); Under
 
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NASHVILLE (48-30-0-12, 108 pts.) at ST LOUIS (51-33-0-7, 109 pts.) - 5/5/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 41-83 ATS (+136.7 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 110-83 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 32-22 ATS (-1.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 58-45 ATS (+0.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 37-27 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 28-16 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NASHVILLE is 20-9 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 10-9 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 10-9-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.7 Units)

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EDMONTON (53-28-0-11, 117 pts.) at ANAHEIM (52-25-0-13, 117 pts.) - 5/5/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 52-38 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games this season.
ANAHEIM is 34-18 ATS (+5.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
ANAHEIM is 24-13 ATS (+3.6 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
ANAHEIM is 27-17 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ANAHEIM is 17-9 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
EDMONTON is 34-20 ATS (+7.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
EDMONTON is 26-13 ATS (+8.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
EDMONTON is 10-3 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
ANAHEIM is 12-16 ATS (-11.0 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 12-6 (+4.3 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 12-6-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.2 Units)
 
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Friday, May 5

Nashville is 7-1 in playoffs this spring, 3-1 in this series, 7-3 in its last 10 games overall against the Blues. Predators are 2-3 in their last five visits to St Louis. Under is 5-2-2 in last nine series games, 3-1-1 in last five games played here. Predators allowed total of 11 goals in last eight games; they won four of last six road games overall. Blues lost four of last six games overall, two of last three at home- under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games overall. Nashville is 3-10 on power play in series, Blues are 1-9. Must-win game for the Blues, or else series os over.

Road side won all four series games; Oilers won 5-3/2-1 in Games 1-2 here, then lost 4-3/6-3 in Games 3-4 at home. Ducks scored at 0:45 of overtime in last game to even series. Oilers are 5-3 in last eight series games overall. Anaheim is 10-2 in its last 12 games overall- they had won 8 in row at home before losing Games 1-2. Oilers are 6-1 in their last seven road games. Edmonton won three of last four visits to Anaheim. Over is 4-1-1 in last six series meetings. Edmonton is 4-15 on power play in series, Ducks 2-15.

Second round NHL series

NY Rangers (-$150) vs Ottawa (+$130)
Ottawa 2-1
Ottawa 6-5 OT
NYR 4-1
NYR 4-1

Pittsburgh (+$110) vs Washington (-$130)
Penguins 3-2
Penguins 6-2
Wash 3-2 OT
Penguins 3-2

St Louis (+$110) vs Nashville (-$130)
Nashville 4-3
St Louis 2-1
Nashville 3-1
Nashville 2-1

Anaheim (-$135) vs Edmonton (+$115)
Edmonton 5-3
Edmonton 3-2
Anaheim 6-3
Anaheim 4-3 OT

Home: 7-9 (27-31)
Over: 6-8-2 (19-29-10)
 
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Friday, May 5

Trend Report

8:00 PM
NASHVILLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Nashville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Nashville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Nashville

10:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. ANAHEIM
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games
Edmonton is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Anaheim is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Edmonton
 
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Friday’s NHL Stanley Cup Betting Preview and Odds

After sweeping top-seeded Chicago, Nashville takes a 3-1 series lead into Friday's Game 5 against the host St. Louis Blues.

Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues (-115, 5)

Preds lead series 3-1

ABOUT THE PREDATORS (48-30-8-4, 42-38 O/U): The Nashville Predators were not expected to get past the first round of the postseason, but they are on the verge of advancing to the Western Conference finals for the first time in franchise history. After sweeping top-seeded Chicago, Nashville takes a 3-1 series lead into Friday's Game 5 against the host St. Louis Blues. The Predators improved to 7-1 in the postseason after winning back-to-back games in Nashville to push St. Louis to the brink of elimination. There were questions about the drop-off in Rinne's play entering the playoffs, but he has posted a 7-1-0 mark, 1.33 goals-against average and a staggering .953 save percentage - the highest for a netminder with at least eight starts since 1982-83. "It's still a small stretch of games to me," said Rinne, who yielded three goals in each game at St. Louis. "But it's one of those things, you try not to look at those numbers." Nashville's defensemen continue to supply great production with eight goals and 14 assists in eight playoff games.

ABOUT THE BLUES (51-33-5-2, 36-41 O/U): Blues scored two goals in two games in Nashville and can't count on a return home to serve as a panacea - they are 6-8 in their last 14 playoff games at Scottrade Center, including 2-2 this postseason. Among the simplest ways for St. Louis to generate more offense is to improve its struggling power play, which has converted on 1 of 9 chances in the series and 2 of 24 in the postseason. “That’s something that we need to be better at for sure,” forward Jaden Schwartz told reporters. “We’ve just got to do a better job of making tape-to-tape passes, coming down hill a little bit more and not looking for the perfect pass, just getting them on net and find a way to get rebounds.” Vladimir Sobotka replaced Schwartz on the No. 1 line at Thursday's practice.

LINE HISTORY: The Blues opened as -115 favorites on home ice with their backs against the wall in Game 5. The total hit the board at 5.

INJURY REPORT:

Predators - RW C. Smith (Questionable, lower body), LW P. Aberg (Questionable, undisclosed), LW K. Fiala (Out For Season, leg).

Blues - C R. Fabbri (Out For Season, knee).

TRENDS:

* Predators are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
* Blues are 5-12 in their last 17 Conference Semifinals games.
* Under is 5-1-5 in Predators last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-2-3 in Blues last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Home team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.




Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers (-140, 5.5)

Series tied 2-2

ABOUT THE OILERS (53-28-6-5, 37-46 O/U): Leon Draisaitl (team-high 10 points) has been pretty hard to solve on the heels of his third multi-point performance in the playoffs for the Oilers. Captain Connor McDavid followed his highlight-reel goal in Game 3 with another tally on Wednesday, giving the Hart Trophy finalist a point in five of his last six outings. The 20-year-old McDavid wasn't hanging his head after his team dropped both contests at Rogers Place and rather expressed an air of confidence on Thursday given Edmonton's 4-1 record during the playoffs in Southern California and 22-14-5 road mark in the regular season. "I think everyone feels pretty good, even though losing both (games) at home is not ideal," McDavid said. "We're going into a building that we feel pretty comfortable playing in, we've had success there before. We've been a pretty good road team this year, the guys seem to jell on the road."

ABOUT THE DUCKS (52-25-10-3, 32-38 O/U): After remaining perfect in the playoffs in Alberta, the Ducks vie for their third win in a row in the series when they host the Oilers in Game 5 on Friday. Captain Ryan Getzlaf has enjoyed the advantage regardless of venue, highlighting his four-point performance in Wednesday's 4-3 overtime victory with a pair of tallies to surpass Teemu Selanne (35) for first place on the all-time franchise playoff list. Jakob Silfverberg scored the second-fastest overtime goal in Anaheim's franchise playoff history when he tallied 45 seconds into overtime, extending his goal streak to four contests and playoff total to seven in eight games. The 26-year-old Swede has shown a knack for coming up big in the postseason as he's only two years removed from recording 18 points (four goals, 14 assists) in 16 games during Anaheim's run to the Western Conference final. Rickard Rakell, who led the team with a career-high 33 goals, has scored in back-to-back outings and totaled a plus-6 rating over those two contests.

LINE HISTORY: The Ducks opened as -140 moneyline favorites as they attempt to become the first home team in this series to notch a victory. The total opened at 5.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Oilers - D A. Ference (Out For Season, hip), RW T. Pitlick (Out For Season, knee).

Ducks - RW O. Kase (Questionable, lower body), RW P. Eaves (Doubtful, lower body), D K. Bieksa (Out Indefinitely, lower body), D S. Despres (Out Indefinitely, concussion), D C. Stoner (Out Indefinitely, abdominal).

TRENDS:

* Oilers are 2-8 in their last 10 Friday games.
* Ducks are 17-4 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 12-2-2 in Oilers last 16 Friday games.
* Over is 4-1-2 in Ducks last 7 games following a win.
* Road team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
 
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DAVE COKIN

CAVALIERS AT RAPTORS
PLAY: RAPTORS 1H -1.5

If you’d like the rationale for what I’m doing here, check either of the last couple blogs as the methodology is largely the same as it was in the Rockets-Spurs on Wednesday as well as the Celtics-Wizards last night.

Cleveland has dominated the first two games, and look vastly superior to Toronto. Basically, the series to date is a rerun of what we saw last year between these two. if the pattern continues to repeat, the Raptors will show dramatic improvement tonight. That’s certainly not something I can chisel in granite, as I’m sure not expecting the Cavs to simply mail it in with a 2-0 lead.

But this should be the spot where Toronto puts its best foot forward, and I’ll continue to look for good play out of the gate from teams in this scenario. The oddsmakers aren’t making it easy as Toronto is actually favored for the first half, but I also see that as a positive indicator.

Same wager as the last two nights for me, half unit on the 1Q and the other half on the 1H with the Raptors the play this time.
 
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Bruce Marshall

Rangers at Mariners
Pick: Rangers

Both of these sides could use a jolt, but that's more likely to be the Rangers tonight thanks to the pitching matchup. More specifically, Yu Darvish, who has pitched extremely well in four of his last five starts, allowing two runs or fewer in those four. Less confident in Mariners starter Yovani Gallardo and his 5.08 ERA, with Seattle losing 4 of his 5 starts.
 
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Wunderdog

Cleveland @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto +4.5

Toronto finds itself in the same situation as last year's playoffs when it lost the first two games to Cleveland on the road before coming home to win two straight. DeMar DeRozan is ready to break out with a big game after scoring only five points in Game 2. Jonas Valnciunas came off the bench to score 23 points and Cory Joseph added 22 points, but the Raptors were only 5-for-17 from three-point range.
 
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Tony Finn

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Play: Texas Rangers -122

The American League West Texas Rangers visit the Seattle area on Friday night to begin a three-game series against the Mariners. This West Coast contest is slated to see first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET at Safeco Field.

Texas starter Yu Darvish received an extra day of rest for tonight's start against Seattle after pitching deep into his last turn. Darvish struck out 10 and only allowed 2 runs in his six innings of work against the Los Angeles Angels. The reason for the extra rest is due to the Japanese import throwing 125 pitches, most by any pitcher so far this season, versus L.A. This followed Darvish’s previous start that saw him throw 113 pitches against Kansas City, also a win for the Texas right-hander.

Darvish may have a lifetime record of 0-3 in his three starts at SafeCo Field in Seattle but the 14 earned runs on 15 hits combined with 11 walks in just 16 1/3 innings are misleading and are not what they appear in the box scores. His hard hit percentage in these starts are below his career average and he suffered some defensive lapses in those three starts.

Seattle veteran starter tonight, Yovani Gallardo, failed to impress in the spring and wouldn't be starting for half of the American League. In fact, his days as a starter for Seattle are numbers. Gallardo is coming off a 2016 campaign that saw him records an ERA of 5.42

Gallardo has one win since last September. The M's righty has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four turns and while he has struck out seven in each of his last two starts, versus Oakland and Cleveland, he combined for just nine in his first three outings. The Rangers know Gallardo well and he was part of the Texas roster in 2015. Gallardo is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two career starts against his former team and the expected Texas lineup tonight has a .333 batting average against versus Yovani.

The pitching mismatch in this Friday night event is overwhelming. And if it isn't clear to you by now that Gallardo isn’t going go ever be an elite starter, then read further. Gallardo depends on inducing ground balls as his HR to flyball ratio is ugly. It’s hard to be optimistic or back a veteran pitcher that has lost nearly 4 m.p.h. on his fastball since joining the American League and one with a strike out to walk ratio that isn't at least two-to-one since he made the switch. Before the All-Star break of this season, and even throwing half of his starts in pitcher-friendly SafeCo, expect him to have allowed an average of two home runs per game.
 
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The Prez

Cardinals at Braves
Play: Under 8.5

St. Louis takes to SunTrust Park field in Atlanta in a Senior Circuit affair against the Braves. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET in Cumberland, Georgia.

The St. Louis Cardinals have rebounded from a slow start in April by winning 10 of their past 15. The Braves are playing much better than they did at this point last year especially defensively. The Braves have committed eight errors in their past 20 games but have a .989 fielding percentage that ranks third in the bigs.

The Cardinals are never going to be an offensive juggernaut but they have the pitching staff to compete in the National League Central. Right-hander Lance Lynn takes the hill tonight for the Cards. In his first full year back from Tommy John surgery the St Louis starter has performed with superior form. With six innings of one-run ball and seven strikeouts in Milwaukee last Friday, Lynn lowered his ERA to a stellar 2.45 on the season. In 29.1 innings, Lynn’s K:BB sits at 25:10 which is typical of pitchers coming off TJS. Lynn's velocity and underlying peripherals are equal to those of his pre-surgery form and has a matchup tonight against a Braves team that has outperformed 2017 expectations.

Lynn has held right-handed batters to a .125 average with a .196 slugging percentage and 18 strikeouts in 56 at-bats so far this season.

Despite not having a win through his first five appearances (four starts), Foltynewicz has allowed only four earned runs in 20 innings across his past three starts. The Braves starter doesn't miss as many bats to make him an investment each and every fifth day but his slash lines .260/.336/.550 against LH hitting and .260/.314/.394 against RH hitting make him a go tonight against a Cardinals team that is going to compete from the starter through the bullpen most of the summer.
 
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Jack Brayman

My Bonus Play for Friday is on the Over in the Miami Marlins-New York Mets game, and in this contest, since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Tom Koehler and Rafael Montero If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.

So here's the deal with these two pitchers...

Koehler has been victimized by home runs, as he's been throttled for seven in five starts. And while you'd think he may be excited to return to New York - he was born in the Bronx - he's actually had a rough time pitching inside Citi Field. In Queen, the right-hander is 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA. And lifetime against the Mets, he is 2-8 with a 4.56 ERA. He will get chased early

Now, don't be so quick to jump on the Mets, either. I'm playing this Over because the Marlins could get to Montero quick too. The right-hander can be either really good, or really bad. There is no in between. And I think once the Mets' bats get going, the Marlins will be swinging for fences and could hit the ball hard tonight.

I like this one to get into double digits.

3* Marlins/Mets Over
 
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Brad Wilton

I just don't get this line!?!?!?

Cleveland has ripped Toronto a new one through the first 2 games of this series, covering both Game 1 and Game 2.

Cleveland has now won 6 straight this postseason with 4 straight covers.

Cleveland is the defending champions, and they are playing a Toronto team that lists Kyle Lowry as questionable with a turned ankle.

How in the world are the Cavs only favored by 3 points?!?!?!

This line makes no sense at all.

When I see a line like this in the NBA, I immediately think TRAP!

Last year we had the same scenario, as Cleveland won the first 2 games of the East Finals over Toronto at the Quicken Loans Arena, then went North of the Border and stubbed their toes in Games 3 and 4 as the Raptors got a major boost from the home court and crowd.

I am looking for "deja vu all over again", as I will back the wounded Raptors to bow-up and put their 30-14 straight up home court mark on the line as they finally get a win over the Cavaliers.

It's now or never for Toronto, and I say they summon a winning effort tonight against a Cleveland team that is about due for a banana peel slip.

Take the home dog on Friday.

4* TORONTO
 
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Jeff Benton

Friday comp play is Nashville to close out their Western Conference Semifinal series with St. Louis on the Blues home ice tonight.

The Predators have looked like the team to beat in the West for a while now, as they swept away # 1 seed Chicago in 4 straight games, holding the Blackhawks to just 3 goals in those 4 wins.

In this series, the Preds lead 3-1 in games, and they have outscored the Blues, 5-2 in the last pair of games in this series to build that commanding 3-1 lead.

St. Louis simply cannot score on Pekka Rinne, and that is not likely to change tonight just because they are at home. Nashville has won 5 of the past 7 series meetings, and 7 of the last 10 overall.

Look for the Preds to advance.

3* NASHVILLE
 
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Teddy Covers

Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners +111

There’s not much to like about the Texas Rangers these days. The Rangers aren’t hitting, ranked as the #21 team in the majors with a .706 OPS. Their lineup has produced two runs or less in four of their last six overall, and nine of their last sixteen. The Rangers bullpen is spotty on a good day, ranked #27 in ERA and #25 in FIP. Five different relievers from that pen threw 107 pitches against the Astros yesterday, and this will be the Rangers eighth consecutive gameday without a day off for that bullpen to regroup.

Rangers starter Yu Darvish has not mowed down this Seattle lineup. Current Mariners have a .299 average against him and a .739 OPS. And Darvish is coming off back-2-back huge pitch count games, throwing 113 against the Royals, then 125 against the Angels in his last two trips to the hill; his two highest pitch counts since 2014. I’m not expecting a gem tonight against a Mariners team that has found their offensive stroke, pounding out 23 runs in their just concluded three game set against the Angels right here at Safeco Field.

Yovani Gallardo doesn’t bring much excitement or enthusiasm from the betting markets; a ‘tired retread’ type of veteran hurler. And his 1-3 record with an ERA over 5.00 isn’t going to attract much market support tonight either; hence the ‘plus price’ return on the Mariners as home dogs this evening.

But Gallardo’s advanced metric stats are truly impressive, with significant improvements over last year in his strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate and swinging strike percentage. Current Rangers have hit only .250 against him in their careers, and Gallardo has thrown at least six strong innings in each of his last three trips to the hill. Wrong team favored here!
 
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SPORTS WAGERS

Nashville +100 over ST. LOUIS

OT included. Despite losing 2-1 in Game 4 in Nashville, it was the first game of the series that the Blue Notes actually outplayed the Predators. The hockey writers in St. Louis are not ready to write the Blues obituary just yet, citing that the Blues have not been outplayed in this series. That’s the funny thing about sports. Two people can watch the exact same thing and have two completely different perspectives. The two people involved are usually one fan and one unbiased view. The point is, every fan thinks their team is better than it really is and that’s the case with the Blues’ writers. The Blues were completely dominated in their series victory over Minnesota. In the five games, they were the better team in one period. Against Nashville, the Blue Notes have had better moments but not many. In the Blues only victory in this series, they had five PP’s to the Preds none. That’s why St. Louis won. Five on five, they don’t score often. Five-on-five, the Blues have been dominated to a high degree in these playoffs in eight out of nine games. If they dig down deep and play their finest, of course they can win here because it’s one lousy game where anything is possible. However, if we’re sticking to playing value, Nashville must be played.

No question that the Preds are aware that they dodged a bullet last game. It’s not that they deserved to lose but they weren’t at their best and now this team with a sudden killer instinct has the Blue Notes by the throat. How do we know they have a killer instinct? Well, they won two in Chicago to open the playoffs and didn’t let them back in it. Up 3-0 against the Blackhawks, Nashville buried them for good in Game 4. After a split in St. Louis to grab home ice advantage, the Preds held serve and now they have their first chance of eliminating the Blues. Nashville figures to be better here in an attempt to crush any hope that the Blues may have. Nashville is so hungry and so determined. It’s unreasonable to expect a team to be at their very best every single game and Nashville is coming off a game in which they weren’t at their best. With the West Final in their sights, the Preds will leave nothing on the table here and likely put forth their best effort. The Preds best effort should defeat the Blues best effort almost every time and that’s more than enough to prompt us to pull the trigger.

ANAHEIM -½ +124 over Edmonton

Regulation only. In the aftermath of Game 4 in which the Oilers blew a two-goal lead, all the heat coming from Alberta's Capital is on the officials. The cries of “goalie interference”, “offsides” and “icing” were heard belligerently on the airwaves into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Those roars have bled into the off day with many in the Oilers organization making it known they disagreed with the “lack” of calls on the ice, from the head coach to the star players. What nobody in the Edmonton dressing room is talking about is how the Oilers so totally took their foot off the gas after playing arguably their best period of hockey in these playoffs. For 20-minutes you could squint and swear it was 1988. Unfortunately, one good period does not make a game and shabby officials or not, the Oilers blew a great opportunity to step on Anaheim's throat. You've got to be cold-blooded in this league and the Oilers weren’t. They also had no answer for Ducks captain Ryan Getzlaf. Oilers head coach Todd McLellan admitted as much publicly. Hockey is a funny game that often comes down to bounces. In Game 1, Adam Larsson's game winner went in on a funky bounce from behind the red line. In Game 4, the Ducks got some favorable calls. Over time, bounces usually even out but from our vantage point, the Ducks look ready to take control of this series.

Getzlaf is a killer and he led the Ducks to one of the most impressive periods of playoff hockey we've seen in a long, long time in period two of Game 4. It would have been easy for the Ducks to lie down and die in front of 19,000 frothing Oilers fans, but they didn't. Instead, Getzlaf dictated the play with a goal and a helper, as Anaheim outshot the Oilers 21-5 and more importantly took a 3-2 lead into the third period. The Ducks have outshot the Oilers in every game of this series. It might be easy to forget now, but before the Oilers Game 1 win, the Ducks were on a 12-game home point streak. They were arguably the best team on home ice in the final month of the season. Now after two home playoff losses, a correction is coming, as the Ducks are too big, too physical and too experienced to just let the upstart Oilers run their rink for a third straight game.

The books priced this game pretty much identical to Games 1 and 2 and with the Oilers high profile and success in Anaheim in this series, we can understand how that tag with this crew might look appealing. Plus, the Oilers are just an easy team to like. We get all of it. There was a time this past week where the Oilers actually moved into position as Stanley Cup favorites in Vegas. That word spread like wildfire across the country, as the Oilers are now "Canada's Team" in these playoffs (sorry Ottawa, you were never considered) and they are receiving all of the attention that comes with that. We have no doubt the Oilers' time will come but the Ducks time is now. Anaheim’s strong will and outstanding talent cannot allow the Oilers to come in here and steal another one. We’re betting on it.
 

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