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Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals May 13 7:05 EST

Conventional wisdom suggests that you shouldn’t really judge any major league baseball team until sometime around Memorial Day. Teams that came flying out of the gate may have come back to earth, while the slower starting teams will have settled into a groove. This is an incredibly long season, and there is no point in getting too up or down based on what goes down in April and May. The Washington Nationals were a team that looked almost unbeatable in the early stages, but they have taken a pretty sizeable step back in the last couple of weeks. No-one really knew what to expect from the Miami Marlins after a disastrous season last year, and it’s pleasantly surprising that they are just 3 games out of first in the NL East. These two teams will hook up in Washington on Friday to begin a 4-game series that could shake up the division standings just a little.

Why bet on the Miami Marlins

A 5-11 start suggested that the Marlins (18-15) might be the same type of team as last year, but they then went on a run that saw them win 11 of 12 games. That has hauled them right back into the fray atop the division, where they are now just 3 games back of the pace setting Mets. Having a healthy Giancarlo Stanton back in the line-up this season has certainly helped, as he has already hit 10 dingers and driven home 24 runs. Despite that display of power, the Marlins are still down the rankings in runs scored, and are middle of the pack in team ERA. This looks like a team that may eventually fall off, but they are certainly fun to watch right now. Tom Koehler (2-3, 5.83 ERA) will start for the Marlins.

Why bet on the Washington Nationals

As mentioned at the start of this preview, the Nationals (21-13) got out to an amazing start, although it should be noted that they had a pretty favorable schedule in the opening weeks. Once their schedule started to include teams expected to contend this season, things started to go a little south. The Nationals are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, which included a 4-game sweep at the hands of the red hot Chicago Cubs. They returned home after a lengthy road trip and started out with a series win over the Tigers. The goal for the Nats is to win their division this year, and the next 2 series, where they play the Marlins and the Mets, should give us a better idea of where they stand. Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 2.19 ERA) will start for Washington.

My Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

The Marlins and Nationals have split the 6 games they have played this season, which makes me believe this will be another tight series. I like the pitching match-up for the Nationals here, and I think they will take Game 1.

Miami Marlins 2 Washington Nationals 5
 
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MLB

Friday's games

National League games

Pirates @ Cubs
Liriano is 2-0, 1.98 in his last two starts (over 3-3).

Hammel is 4-0, 1.85 in six starts this year; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts.

Pirates won seven of last nine road games; over is 12-4 n their last 16 road contests. Cubs won eight of their last ten games; five of their last six went over.

Marlins @ Nationals
Koehler is 2-3, 6.44 in six starts this year (over 3-3).

Gonzalez is 2-1, 2.68 in six starts this year (under 4-2).

Miami is 12-4 in its last 16 games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten road tilts. Nationals lost five of their last seven games; five of their last six went over.

Reds @ Phillies
Finnegan is 0-1, 6.75 in his last four starts; five of his six starts went over.

Hellickson is 1-2, 6.84 in his last five starts (over 4-3).

Reds are 2-10 on road, 3-3 in last six games overall; four of their last five road games stayed under. Philly won four of its last five games- their last three home games went under the total.

Padres @ Brewers
Lefty Friedrich comes up from AAA to make his first '16 start; he is 5-16, 5.81 in 100 big league games (19 starts), 16 of the 19 starts were in 2012.

Guerra is 1-0, 6.00 in his two starts, both of which pushed total.

Milwaukee lost six of last nine games; three of its last four games stayed under total. Padres are 9-5 in last 14 games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 road games.

Mets @ Rockies
Harvey is 3-1, 3.57 in his last four starts, last three of which stayed under.

Gray is 0-0, 11.82 at home, 0-1, 1.38 on road (over 2-0 at home).

New York won 10 of last 15 road games; five of last seven road games went under total. Colorado lost seven of last eight home games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games at Coors Field.

Giants @ Diamondbacks
Samardzija is 3-1, 2.79 in his last four starts (4-0, 1.67 on road); five of his seven starts stayed under the total.

Miller is 1-3, 7.36 in his first seven Arizona starts, 0-3, 8.24 at home (over 3-1).

Giants won four of last five road games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games. Arizona lost six of last seven home games; its last five home games stayed under.

Cardinals @ Dodgers
Wacha is 0-3, 3.43 in his last three starts (over 4-3).

Stripling is 0-2, 5.64 in three home starts; under is 5-0-1 in his starts.

St Louis is 7-3 in its last ten games; seven of its last nine road games went over total. Dodgers lost eight of last 11 at home; under is 12-4-1 in LA home games.


American League games

White Sox @ Bronx
Sale is 5-0, 1.24 in his last five starts, last three of which went over.

Severino is 0-5, 6.40 in six starts; Bronx was outscored 37-7 in those games. Four of his six starts stayed under.

New York won seven of last ten home games; five of its last six games went over the total. White Sox are 3-4 in last seen road games; over is 9-1 in last ten road games.

Tigers @ Orioles
Verlander is 1-2, 4.26 in his last four starts (over 5-1-1).

Tillman is 3-0, 2.05 in his last four starts (under 5-2).

Detroit lost nine of last ten games; five of its last six games went over. Orioles won seven of last nine games; three of their last four games went over.

Twins @ Indians
Nolasco is 0-1, 8.00 in his last three starts; his last five starts went over.

Tomlin is 5-0, 4.03 in five starts; Indians scored 27 runs for him (over 4-1).

Minnesota is 2-15 on the road; they've lost seven in row overall. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Cleveland won five of its last six home games; five of their last seven home games went over the total.

Astros @ Red Sox
McCullers is making first '16 start after being hurt; he was 6-7, 3.22 in 22 MLB starts as a rookie LY.

Wright is. 3-1, 1.88 in his last four starts (under 4-1 last five starts).

Astros lost nine of last 11 road games; under is 3-1-2 in their last six games. Boston won 16 of its last 20 games; eight of its last 11 home games went over.

A's @ Rays
Hill is 4-0, 1.46 in his four road starts (under 4-2-1).

Odorizzi is 1-0, 2.00 in his last three starts (under 6-1)

Oakland lost 10 of last 12 road games; over is 11-3 in their last 14 road tilts. Tampa Bay lost its last three games; under is 13-3 in their last 16 home games.

Blue Jays @ Rangers
Dickey is 0-4, 6.43 in his last six starts (over 4-3).

Perez is 1-0, 2.12 in his last three starts; three of his last four starts stayed under.

Toronto won six of last nine games; under is 14-1 in their last 15 road games. Texas won its last six games; over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games.

Angels @ Mariners
Tropeano is 0-2, 4.39 in his last five starts (under 4-0-2).

Karns is 3-0, 3.03 in his last five starts (under 4-2).

Angels lost ten of last 12 games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four road games. Seattle won eight of last ten home games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games overall.


Interleague

Braves @ Royals
Teheran is 0-1, 1.42 in his last three starts (over 4-2-1).

Volquez is 0-3, 7.94 in his last three starts (under 5-2).

Atlanta lost six of its last seven games. Royals lost 12 of their last 16 games; eight of their last nine games went over the total.


Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:

Pitt-Chi-- Liriano 5-1; Hammel 5-1
Mia-Wsh-- Koehler 2-4; Gonzalez 3-3
Cin-Phil-- Finnegan 2-5; Hellickson 4-3
SD-Mil-- Friedrich 0-0; Guerra 2-0
NY-Col-- Harvey 3-4; Gray 1-3
SF-Az-- Samardzija 4-3; Miller 3-4
StL-LA-- Wacha 3-4; Stripling 3-3

Chi-NY-- Sale 7-0; Severino 0-6
Det-Balt-- Verlander 3-4; Tillman 6-1
Minn-Clev-- Nolasco 3-3; Tomlin 5-0
Hst-Bos-- McCullers 0-0; Wright 3-3
A's-TB-- Hill 4-3; Odorizzi 4-3
Tor-Tex-- Dickey 1-6; Perez 2-5
LA-Sea-- Tropeano 2-4; Karns 5-1

Atl-KC-- Teheran 1-6; Volquez 4-3


Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:

Pitt-Chi-- Liriano 2-6; Hammel 1-6
Mia-Wsh-- Koehler 4-6; Gonzalez 0-6
Cin-Phil-- Finnegan 2-7; Hellickson 2-7
SD-Mil-- Friedrich 0-0; Guerra 1-2
NY-Col-- Harvey 2-7; Gray 2-4
SF-Az-- Samardzija 2-7; Miller 1-7
StL-LA-- Wacha 2-7; Stripling 0-6

Chi-NY-- Sale 1-7; Severino 3-6
Det-Balt-- Verlander 4-7; Tillman 3-7
Minn-Clev-- Nolasco 3-6; Tomlin 2-5
Hst-Bos-- McCullers 0-0; Wright 3-6
A's-TB-- Hill 2-7; Odorizzi 1-7
Tor-Tex-- Dickey 2-7; Perez 1-7
LA-Sea-- Tropeano 2-6; Karns 2-6

Atl-KC-- Teheran 1-7; Volquez 2-7
 
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Friday's six-pack

-- From Katie Sharp, pitch counts for the five 20-strikeout games: Clemens (1996) 151, Clemens (1986) 138, Randy Johnson 124, Kerry Wood 122, Scherzer 119

-- In those five games, pitchers struck out 100, didn't walk one batter.

-- Scherzer/Johnson are only pitchers with a 20-strikeout game and a no-hitter.

-- Nine of Scherzer's 20 Ks came on 3-pitch at-bats.

-- Only 20.7% of big league strikeouts come on 3-pitch at-bats.

-- Victor Martinez was 3-4 against his former teammate with no strikeouts.
 
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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Friday, May 13, 2016 10:10 PM

(913) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (M WACHA) VS (914) L.A. DODGERS (R STRIPLNG)

Play St. Louis.
 
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Roz Wins

Roz's Friday, May 13, 2016, Free MLB Pick: 10:10 PM

(913) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (M WACHA) VS (914) L.A. DODGERS (R STRIPLNG)

Play UNDER the total.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

ANGELS (Tropeano) at MARINERS (Karns) 10:10 PM

Take: MARINERS -155

It just keeps getting worse for the Angels. The starting pitching is not good, the bullpen is shorthanded and not very effective, and now the injuries to position players are piling up. Two more guys went out early on Thursday night, as Cliff Pennington left with hamstring tightness and Yunel Escobar also finished the game in the clubhouse, although I don’t know if that was injury related. In any event, an already beat up team got nicked up even more in what turned out to be the sixth straight loss by the Halos.

The Angels made it interesting late, but in actuality the highlight of the night for the home team was the appearance of a stray cat on the field that got the crowd roaring. And since they lost again anyway, I’m guessing the brownish tabby became “Rally Cat II” for one night. By the way, there was good news on that count as the cat was picked up and taken to local adoption center.

It gets no easier tonight. The Angels have to travel to Seattle to face a Mariners entry that is playing really good baseball. Nick Tropeano has been fair for the Halos, but he’s really not more than a five or six inning guy and hat means likely multiple innings for a bullpen that’s getting chewed up right now having to pitch way too many frames.

Nate Karns is throwing it well for Seattle, and while the Angels did manage to somehow put up ten in the loss to the Redbirds, this is not a good offense. The home team should enjoy an advantage with the sticks and they will have the much fresher relief corps as well.

It’s not cheap by any means at the tag, but the fact is I still think the Mariners are laying less than they ought to be factoring in all the variables. I make the tight price here Seattle -175, so I see enough value to go ahead and fire one unit on the Mariners tonight.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp MLB Pick, Thursday, May 12, 2016 10:10 PM EST

(957) NEW YORK METS VS (958) LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Take: Over the total

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, May 12, 2016 is in baseball as the NY Mets and Los Angeles battle at Dodger Stadium. A low total here but plenty of offensive talent, with the Mets ranked No. 12 in baseball in on base percentage. The over is 39-19-1 in the Mets last 59 road games, plus 9-2 over the total in Bartolo Colon's last 11 road starts. Colon has a 1.89 ERA at home, but 3.72 on the road. Clayton Kershaw has allowed 7 runs his last three starts (23 innings) and he has a 2.74 ERA at home. Play the NY Mets/LA Dodgers Over the total.
 
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Red Dog Sports

Brest vs AJ Auxerre

Bonus Play Draw +205

Brest and Auxerre meet on Friday. This match takes place in France.

Brest 1

Auxerre 1
 

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