***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH – MLB *****
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*** FIVE BEST OFFENSES IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE ***
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The three best offenses in Major League Baseball and perhaps seven of the top 10 reside in the American League. The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers — you pick the order — are widely predicted to produce the most runs in 2011. All three teams play in hitters’ ballparks and each of them has multiple All-Stars in their lineup. But even though AL offenses tend to command the most attention, there are plenty of strong run-producing teams in the National League as well. Here is a look at this year’s top five National League offenses:
• CINCINNATI REDS - On opening day, with the Reds trailing the Milwaukee Brewers by three runs in the ninth inning, Brandon Phillips scanned the crowd and couldn’t believe what he was seeing. "I looked up and saw people leaving, and I was like, 'C'mon, man, you're slipping on us already?'" Phillips told ESPN.com. Cincinnati promptly scored four runs — capped off by Ramon Hernandez’s three-run walkoff home run — to win the game, 7-6. The point? Don’t sleep on the Reds, who have the NL’s deepest, most dangerous lineup. The offense, led by NL MVP Joey Votto, remains intact, with outfielders Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce expected to improve on strong 2010 campaigns. Only one player, Jonny Gomes, figures to regress. The Reds, who had an NL-best 4.87 runs per game and 188 home runs in 2010, should once again be the best offense. The Reds have played over the total in four of their first five games this season.
• PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - Phillies manager Charlie Manuel recently lamented the fact that he has had to juggle his lineup card more this year than in previous seasons. “I don’t know exactly who’s healthy and I’m still looking for some balance in our lineup,” Manuel told the Philadelphia Inquirer. Of particular concern to Manuel are the Phillies’ No. 3 and No. 5 spots, which were occupied last year by Chase Utley, out indefinitely with a knee injury, and Jayson Werth, who signed a free-agent contract with the Washington Nationals in the offseason. But while Manuel’s concerns are legitimate, the reality is that the Phillies have enough offensive firepower to be productive. They’ve scored 32 runs through five games already, and Ryan Howard — coming off the worst season of his big-league career — is off to a fast start in 2011 and poised to have a bounce-back year. The over is 4-0-1 entering Thursday’s game against the New York Mets.
• ATLANTA BRAVES - The argument can be made that the Braves have a better lineup than the Phillies. Every player is capable of reaching double figures in home runs, and the roster has a good mix of veterans (Chipper Jones, Brian McCann) and rising stars (Jason Heyward, Martin Prado). Perhaps the most underrated acquisition of the offseason, Dan Uggla, provides the Braves with plenty of pop in the middle of the order. The big question, and this always seems to be the question with the Braves, is whether or not they can stay healthy. While Jones will surely make his annual trip to the disabled list at some point, the Braves can’t afford to lose guys like Prado and Heyward, who each missed time with injuries in 2010. The over is just 2-3-1 in Atlanta’s first six games in 2011.
• MILWAUKEE BREWERS - This is where it starts to get ugly, but the Brewers get the nod here because of their two big boppers, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, who should both bounce back from down seasons. Fielder and Braun combined for 57 home runs and 186 RBIs in 2010, well below their combined totals in 2008 (71 HR, 208 RBIs) and 2009 (78 HR, 255 RBIs). Even so, the Brewers still managed to rank fourth in the NL in runs scored last year and did so by scoring more runs on the road, 385, than they did at home, 365. The Brewers have finished in the top 5 in runs scored three times since 2007, the year Braun and Fielder became teammates. As long as those two are in the same lineup, run production shouldn’t be an issue. Milwaukee has played over the total in just two of its six games but the club’s been one of the better over bet teams in the last three seasons.
• COLORADO ROCKIES - It was a toss-up between four teams, but the Rockies, because they play at Coors Field, get the final spot. Since 2000, the Rockies have led the league in runs scored at home every year but 2008, the only year they failed to have a top 5 offense. Colorado, like the Brewers, will expect two stars — Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez — to carry them. And while people will say the Rockies have a weak lineup outside of those two, it won’t matter. The Rockies, like they always do, will have a top 5 NL offense.
***** FRIDAY, APRIL 8TH MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PAGE *****
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Every day during the 2011 Major League Baseball season, Stat/Systems Sports will analyzes all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
NOTE: For the first week or two of any season, there are not a lot of stats that make much sense, but we'll be giving you pitching stats that refer back to last season. We will start the umpire stats in mid to late April, and will give you pitcher versus team stats, when some of the other stats, start to become relevant.
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• HOT PITCHERS
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-- Dickey has a 2.65 RA in his last five starts.
-- Nolasco is 2-1, 3.13 in his last four starts.
-- de la Rosa has a 3.20 RA in his last four starts.
-- Braves won last four Hudson starts (3-0, 2.67).
-- Zambrano is 7-0, 1.81 in his last nine starts.
-- Kennedy has a 2.57 RA in his last six starts.
-- Scherzer is 3-1, 4.10 in his last four starts.
-- Anderson is 3-1, 2.09 in his last seven starts.
-- Lewis is 4-0, 2.23 in his last five starts. Britton allowed one run in six IP (96 PT) in his first MLB start.
-- Danks is 2-1, 2.70 in his last three starts.
• COLD PITCHERS
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-- Zimmerman is 1-3, 5.87 in his last five starts.
-- Westbrook has a 7.59 RA in his last four starts. JSanchez is 0-3, 6.38 in his last four starts.
-- Rodriguez is 1-1. 4.68 in his last seven starts.
-- Ohlendorf is 0-5, 3.75 in his last nine starts.
-- Wolf is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Wood is 1-2, 3.96 in his last six starts.
-- Lilly is 2-5, 5.21 in his last eight starts. Richard is 2-2, 9.00 in his last four outings.
-- Davies is 0-3, 7.81 in his last five starts.
-- Pavano is 0-3, 9.00 in his last four starts.
-- Lackey is 1-3, 8.74 in his last four starts. Hughes is 0-3, 11.37 in his last three outings.
-- Shields is 0-5, 7.31 in his last five starts.
-- Santana is 0-1, 5.68 in his last three starts. Drabek is 1-3, 3.75 in his first four big league starts; he allowed one hit in seven IP in his first '11 start, against the Twins.
-- Vargas is 0-7, 5.70 in his last nine starts. Carrasco is 1-3, 6.93 in his last four starts.
• TOTALS
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-- Four of last five Met games went over the total.
-- Last four St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Florida games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Cincinnati games went over total.
-- Three of last four Los Angeles games went over the total.
-- Last four Kansas City games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Lewis starts.
-- Three of last four Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Five of six Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Cleveland games stayed under total.
• HOT TEAMS
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-- Rockies won their last four games, allowing seven runs.
-- Phillies won five of their last six games, scoring 21 runs in last two.
-- Brewers won their last three games, allowing six runs.
-- Cincinnati won five of its first six games.
-- Royals won four of their last five games.
-- Rangers won their first six games, scoring 42 runs. Orioles won five of their first six games.
-- Bronx won four of its first six games.
-- White Sox won four of their first six games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their first six games. Angels won their last two games, allowing total of four runs.
-- Indians won their last four games, allowing six runs.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Nationals lost three of their last four games. Mets lost last two games, allowing 21 runs.
-- Cardinals are off to 2-4 start, scoring 15 runs. Giants are 0-4 when they score less than 8 runs.
-- Astros lost five of their first six games.
-- Atlanta lost its last three games, scoring six runs.
-- Arizona lost three of its last four games.
-- Dodgers lost three of their last four games.
-- Tigers lost four of their first six games.
-- Oakland, Minnesota both lost four of their first six games.
-- Red Sox are 0-6, scoring six runs in last four games.
-- Tampa Bay is 0-6, scoring a total of eight runs.
-- Mariners lost their last four games, allowing 23 runs.
• QUICK HITS
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-- WASHINGTON @ NY METS, 4:10 PM ET ZIMMERMANN: WASHINGTON is 10-30 as a road underdog of +100 to +150. DICKEY: NEW YORK is 14-5 SU in home games after 6 or more consecutive road games.
-- ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO, 4:35 PM ET WESTBROOK: ST LOUIS is 26-32 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. SANCHEZ: SAN FRANCISCO is 17-3 in home games after 4 or more consecutive road games.
-- FLORIDA @ HOUSTON, 7:05 PM ET NOLASCO: FLORIDA is 11-2 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games with no home runs. RODRIGUEZ: HOUSTON is 36-19 UNDER in home games in night games.
-- COLORADO @ PITTSBURGH, 7:05 PM ET DE LA ROSA: COLORADO is 32-50 in road games. OHLENDORF: PITTSBURGH is 23-14 in home games after scoring 4 runs or less 4 straight games.
-- PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA, 7:35 PM ET LEE: PHILADELPHIA is 25-11 in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games. HUDSON: ATLANTA is 14-4 at home when the money line is +125 to -125.
-- CHICAGO CUBS @ MILWAUKEE, 8:10 PM ET ZAMBRANO: 19-5 TSR against division opponents. WOLF: MILWAUKEE is 16-25 at home with a money line of -100 to -150.
-- CINCINNATI @ ARIZONA, 9:40 PM ET WOOD: CINCINNATI is 36-22 after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival. KENNEDY: ARIZONA is 6-15 in home games against NL Central opponents.
-- LA DODGERS @ SAN DIEGO, 10:05 PM ET LILLY: LA DODGERS are 16-30 in road games after a loss. RICHARD: 19-10 TSR against division opponents.
-- KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT, 3:05 PM ET DAVIES: 13-9 TSR as a road underdog of +150 to +200. SCHERZER: 4-11 TSR against division opponents.
-- OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA, 4:10 PM ET ANDERSON: 55-33 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive unders. PAVANO: MINNESOTA is 34-11 at home with a money line of -100 to -150.
-- TEXAS @ BALTIMORE, 7:05 PM ET LEWIS: 6-13 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150. BRITTON: BALTIMORE is 22-13 after having won 2 of their last 3 games.
-- NY YANKEES @ BOSTON, 2:05 PM ET HUGHES: NEW YORK is 16-21 after a win by 2 runs or less. LACKEY: BOSTON is 71-32 in home games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games.
-- TAMPA BAY @ CHI WHITE SOX, 8:10 PM ET SHIELDS: TAMPA BAY is 0-6 in all games. DANKS: CHICAGO WHITE SOX are 30-14 after 2 or more consecutive wins.
-- TORONTO @ LA ANGELS, 10:05 PM ET DRABEK: TORONTO is 32-16 OVER after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less. SANTANA: 17-6 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125.
-- CLEVELAND @ SEATTLE, 10:10 PM ET CARRASCO: CLEVELAND is 18-10 against the money line after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less. VARGAS: SEATTLE is 34-70 after a loss.
• KEY STATS
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-- The last time the Boston Red Sox started a season 0-6 was in 1945, with it lost the likes of Ted Williams among others as they enlisted in World War II. The Red Sox have been outscored 38-16 so far this season heading into their home opener against the Yankees on Friday.
• KEY TRENDS
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-- BOSTON is 13-1 OVER (+12.0 Units) in home games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 6.6, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 5*)
-- ST LOUIS is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 3.2, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 4*)
-- TED LILLY is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LILLY 2.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 4*)
-- PHILADELPHIA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.1, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 4*)
-- TED LILLY is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LILLY 2.5, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 4*)
-- CARL PAVANO is 1-11 (-12.5 Units) against the run line vs. an AL team with they batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PAVANO 2.7, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 4*)
-- CHICAGO CUBS are 13-24 (-22.7 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.9, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 3*)
-- NY METS are 24-7 UNDER (+16.2 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 3.5, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 3*)
-- WASHINGTON is 20-4 UNDER (+15.4 Units) vs. an NL team with a on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• NOTES & TIPS
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-- A fractured leg has knocked Tsuyoshi Nishioka out of the Twins' lineup for the home opener and well beyond. 'I'll try to be back as soon as possible,' he says. Showered and dressed and hobbling, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, walking with the aid of crutches, turned a corner in the visitors' clubhouse at Yankee Stadium on Thursday afternoon and immediately spotted Twins general manager Bill Smith. "I'm sorry," the Japanese infielder said in English to the GM. Smith reached out to put his arm around Nishioka's shoulders and said, "No, I'm sorry." After X-rays revealed the second baseman suffered a fractured left fibula in the seventh inning of Thursday's 4-3 loss to the Yankees when Nick Swisher slid hard into second to break up a double play, everyone, it seemed, was sorry.
-- Phillies closer Brad Lidge likely will be out until around the All-Star break, manager Charlie Manuel said during an appearance Wednesday on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM. "I'm probably looking at maybe All-Star break, or....just before that," Manuel told the station. Soon after the Phillies clubhouse opened to the media before Thursday's game against the Mets, Lidge confirmed the news. "I don't know if it's anything new, but yeah, I agree with Charlie," Lidge said. "When I first got hurt, there was this three-to-six week talk before playing catch or throwing a ball.
If nothing serious happens, and I'm hopeful it won't, I can see myself being back by the All-Star break. I'm doing everything I'm supposed to be doing and I remain optimistic about this timetable." The 34-year-old right-hander discovered last month he had a right posterior rotator cuff strain, causing him to begin the year on the disabled list for the second straight season. "Let's put it this way," Lidge said. "I sure hope to be on the mound by the All-Star break. If I'm not, I'll be disappointed." Until Lidge returns, Jose Contreras will remain the closer for Philadelphia.
-- Blue Jays shortstop Yunel Escobar has been diagnosed with a mild concussion, but won’t be placed on the new seven-day disabled list introduced by the league for concussed players. “That’s a new rule and we’re the working through it with Major League Baseball,” Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos said. “This is the first case, (the league) even told us this is the first case they’ve had. So under further clarification, he’s not forced to take the DL, he just had to pass tests mandated by Major League Baseball.”
Anthopoulos said Escobar, who slid headfirst into third base on Wednesday and struck his head on the knee of Oakland’s Andy LaRoche, is expected to return to the lineup sometime next week. “Once he passes the tests, we have to send our reports to an MLB-certified doctor for clearance so he can return, and we expect that next week,” Anthopoulos said. “He feels great, the doctors say he’ll be fine,” said Anthopoulos, adding that Escobar would be travelling with the team Thursday when it left Toronto for a 10-game, 11-day road trip through Anaheim, Seattle and Boston.
