DAVE ESSLER
Friday Bonus Play – MLB Thoughts
968 BOS (-125) vs 967 BAL
Analysis: With Uehara back Boston clearly has the back-end edge, as good as Baltimore’s pen is. Kelly was Cy Young against the Yankees with a fastball topping out at 95MPH +. Ubaldo pitched like the old Ublado last week – but the bottom line here is that this is a Boston team that has simply feasted on him, and they’ll do it again.
Padres-Cubs: This instinctive thing to do is bet on the Padres and Shields, and that could well be the winner. But, I said in March that I wanted to see how San Diego fared against RHP since they made such an effort to get better against LHP. Interestingly enough this season they’re hitting .350 against LHP (limited sample, I know) and .263 against RHP and have yet to go yard against a lefty. The Cubs are fourth in HR’s against a RHP this season (yes, limited sample) and Shields can get the ball up. Shields has thrown a lot of pitches already – but not past the 7th inning – Cubs haven’t seen him much. Hammel is at least servicable most of the time – I like the F5 under here.
Milwaukee-Pirates: Again the first instinct would be to back the Pirates. Personally, whenever I have tried to do that with Locke pitching it’s been a disaster. Nelson threw a two-hit, seven inning shutout last outing, but the problem is it was against the Pirates. I do like going the other way on quick turnarounds like that. But, Nelson was a beast in AAA so it might not be automatic. Locke does seem to be finding the strike zone better, and the Brewers are not a patient team at the plate, which could actually be a bad thing for Locke – because again, these two just faced each other. Assuming some regression both ways – I like the under in the hitters’ park. I do think the total goes to 7.5.
Miami-NY Mets: The Fish have been a bit of a betting darling the last couple of games, after starting much worse than people thought they might. If this game were about who I trusted more, it’d have to be Bartolo. Phelps is simply not a starter that we can count on for a quality start. He was roughed up in some relief appearances, now he come back from paternity leave, so it might be tough to figure him. On paper, the Mets win, but some time off and a newborn maybe gives him some adrenaline, who knows. Maybe he sucked BECAUSE he was waiting for the baby. With Wright hurt and Colon being the ground ball pitcher that he is, I’d play the under here.
Reds-Cardinals: Very interesting game here. Cueto has owned everyone the last year, and in two starts this season. However, the Cardinals have simply crushed him time and time again. Wacha just won in Cincinnati, so yet another turnaround game, but Wacha’s pitch count was very low. It almost seems a sin not to take Cueto at +120 or whatever, but it’s almost always a sin to fade St. Louis at home, too. It seems easy to think the get 6.5 (ok, 7) runs, too. IMO this game has a F5 bet there somewhere, and that would probably be the Reds.
Colorado-LA Dodgers: Last year, if I remember right, about half of Kershaw’s home games were one-run games. I wanted to fade Kendrick this season in Colorado and a flyball pitcher (flinched last game) but in LA and in the bigger park I can actually make a case for the Rockies here. The Dodgers have hit Kendrick over the years, but a team that hitting as well as Colorado has been (.301 on the season) is hard not to take, at least the almost free RL, against anyone. The Dodgers have been doing their damage with the long ball, which Kendrick does give up, so this might go over.
Arizona-Giants: Hard not to like the Giants out of the box here, if for no other reason than they’ve had their way with Collmenter. However, at team hitting .229 with only 26 runs scored in ten games is tough to immediately get behind. Peavy only lasted four inning in San Diego in his first start. Arizona hasn’t seen much of him – and a lot of what I’d do depends on how Friday nights’ game goes, but assuming it goes “close to as planned” – the under might work here. The weather is conducive to overs, but the teams nor the park are. The total will probably go up, simply because of that, so perhaps an under later.
Baltimore-Boston: Two of the “hottest” teams both from a W/L standpoint and teams bettors are in love with, and two pitchers that should get some respect. Ublado was his old self last game, and Joe Kelly pitched like Cy Young. It WAS against a slumping Yankees team, but he made them look even worse than they are. Boston typically crushes Jiminez, so with their bullpen now in tact I’d have to like the Sox here, but the total of 9 might be a bit high. This could be where all the “unders” start happening, because you know it will. I do like the F5 under here more than anything for the full game.
Yankees-Rays: Tough spot for Tampa Bay, having to play in Toronto and fly back while New York sits and waits. So, no matter what happens in the Ray game Friday, the Yankees pen will be rested and it’s not likely they sit anyone. As much as Karns turned it around at Miami, it was Miami. In his first outing he had a case of the nerves, so let’s assume “somewhere in the middle” for him. Warren can strike people out and been a great ground ball/double play pitcher, so I do like the Yankees here and perhaps the under even more.
Cleveland-Minnesota: Almost seems really cheap for Kluber at -140, even on the road. The Twins have seen enough of him and with two early 100+ pitch games I do think Minnesota can scratch out a few. Pelfrey just never seems to come through for me, but he CAN be a decent ground ball pitcher, and the way Cleveland IS NOT hitting, I like the under here but I might make a very rational argument for the Twins RL.
Oakland-Kansas City: This one will make you think. You’ve got Sonny Gray, apparently back to “normal”, against a Royals team that’s simply winning. That one doesn’t surprise me as a said on our Webinar that the Royals were disrespected – only losing Shields and replacing him with Volquez (fair trade) and losing Butlers’ 9 bombs and .271 average. Replacable. I guess it comes down to whether we think Guthrie can keep Oakland from scoring more than anything, and in the bigger park I think he can. The A’s are a .500 team right now, and without Crisp they are not the same. They’ve either been at home or at Houston, so this is a real test. Like the under here and the Royals pen to win it.
Angels-Houston: Line opened at 8.5 which lasted all of about a minute. That’s due in part to the perception that the Angels score a ton of runs (they’ve scored more than 5 twice, both at Texas) and the Park. If the roof is open, perhaps, but that’s actually, aside from the power alleys to the poles, a big outfield. Fausto can totally keep the ball down and on the ground, so I wouldn’t rule out the Astros and/or the under. The only way Houston has been scoring is the home run, and the only way Weaver tends to get beat is by giving up the home run. I don’t trust either bullpen and could easily make a case for the Astros F5.
Yes, there’s a couple more games. I like the over in the Mariners game and Teheran and a rested Braves team at +125 or whatever is doable.
Friday Bonus Play – MLB Thoughts
968 BOS (-125) vs 967 BAL
Analysis: With Uehara back Boston clearly has the back-end edge, as good as Baltimore’s pen is. Kelly was Cy Young against the Yankees with a fastball topping out at 95MPH +. Ubaldo pitched like the old Ublado last week – but the bottom line here is that this is a Boston team that has simply feasted on him, and they’ll do it again.
Padres-Cubs: This instinctive thing to do is bet on the Padres and Shields, and that could well be the winner. But, I said in March that I wanted to see how San Diego fared against RHP since they made such an effort to get better against LHP. Interestingly enough this season they’re hitting .350 against LHP (limited sample, I know) and .263 against RHP and have yet to go yard against a lefty. The Cubs are fourth in HR’s against a RHP this season (yes, limited sample) and Shields can get the ball up. Shields has thrown a lot of pitches already – but not past the 7th inning – Cubs haven’t seen him much. Hammel is at least servicable most of the time – I like the F5 under here.
Milwaukee-Pirates: Again the first instinct would be to back the Pirates. Personally, whenever I have tried to do that with Locke pitching it’s been a disaster. Nelson threw a two-hit, seven inning shutout last outing, but the problem is it was against the Pirates. I do like going the other way on quick turnarounds like that. But, Nelson was a beast in AAA so it might not be automatic. Locke does seem to be finding the strike zone better, and the Brewers are not a patient team at the plate, which could actually be a bad thing for Locke – because again, these two just faced each other. Assuming some regression both ways – I like the under in the hitters’ park. I do think the total goes to 7.5.
Miami-NY Mets: The Fish have been a bit of a betting darling the last couple of games, after starting much worse than people thought they might. If this game were about who I trusted more, it’d have to be Bartolo. Phelps is simply not a starter that we can count on for a quality start. He was roughed up in some relief appearances, now he come back from paternity leave, so it might be tough to figure him. On paper, the Mets win, but some time off and a newborn maybe gives him some adrenaline, who knows. Maybe he sucked BECAUSE he was waiting for the baby. With Wright hurt and Colon being the ground ball pitcher that he is, I’d play the under here.
Reds-Cardinals: Very interesting game here. Cueto has owned everyone the last year, and in two starts this season. However, the Cardinals have simply crushed him time and time again. Wacha just won in Cincinnati, so yet another turnaround game, but Wacha’s pitch count was very low. It almost seems a sin not to take Cueto at +120 or whatever, but it’s almost always a sin to fade St. Louis at home, too. It seems easy to think the get 6.5 (ok, 7) runs, too. IMO this game has a F5 bet there somewhere, and that would probably be the Reds.
Colorado-LA Dodgers: Last year, if I remember right, about half of Kershaw’s home games were one-run games. I wanted to fade Kendrick this season in Colorado and a flyball pitcher (flinched last game) but in LA and in the bigger park I can actually make a case for the Rockies here. The Dodgers have hit Kendrick over the years, but a team that hitting as well as Colorado has been (.301 on the season) is hard not to take, at least the almost free RL, against anyone. The Dodgers have been doing their damage with the long ball, which Kendrick does give up, so this might go over.
Arizona-Giants: Hard not to like the Giants out of the box here, if for no other reason than they’ve had their way with Collmenter. However, at team hitting .229 with only 26 runs scored in ten games is tough to immediately get behind. Peavy only lasted four inning in San Diego in his first start. Arizona hasn’t seen much of him – and a lot of what I’d do depends on how Friday nights’ game goes, but assuming it goes “close to as planned” – the under might work here. The weather is conducive to overs, but the teams nor the park are. The total will probably go up, simply because of that, so perhaps an under later.
Baltimore-Boston: Two of the “hottest” teams both from a W/L standpoint and teams bettors are in love with, and two pitchers that should get some respect. Ublado was his old self last game, and Joe Kelly pitched like Cy Young. It WAS against a slumping Yankees team, but he made them look even worse than they are. Boston typically crushes Jiminez, so with their bullpen now in tact I’d have to like the Sox here, but the total of 9 might be a bit high. This could be where all the “unders” start happening, because you know it will. I do like the F5 under here more than anything for the full game.
Yankees-Rays: Tough spot for Tampa Bay, having to play in Toronto and fly back while New York sits and waits. So, no matter what happens in the Ray game Friday, the Yankees pen will be rested and it’s not likely they sit anyone. As much as Karns turned it around at Miami, it was Miami. In his first outing he had a case of the nerves, so let’s assume “somewhere in the middle” for him. Warren can strike people out and been a great ground ball/double play pitcher, so I do like the Yankees here and perhaps the under even more.
Cleveland-Minnesota: Almost seems really cheap for Kluber at -140, even on the road. The Twins have seen enough of him and with two early 100+ pitch games I do think Minnesota can scratch out a few. Pelfrey just never seems to come through for me, but he CAN be a decent ground ball pitcher, and the way Cleveland IS NOT hitting, I like the under here but I might make a very rational argument for the Twins RL.
Oakland-Kansas City: This one will make you think. You’ve got Sonny Gray, apparently back to “normal”, against a Royals team that’s simply winning. That one doesn’t surprise me as a said on our Webinar that the Royals were disrespected – only losing Shields and replacing him with Volquez (fair trade) and losing Butlers’ 9 bombs and .271 average. Replacable. I guess it comes down to whether we think Guthrie can keep Oakland from scoring more than anything, and in the bigger park I think he can. The A’s are a .500 team right now, and without Crisp they are not the same. They’ve either been at home or at Houston, so this is a real test. Like the under here and the Royals pen to win it.
Angels-Houston: Line opened at 8.5 which lasted all of about a minute. That’s due in part to the perception that the Angels score a ton of runs (they’ve scored more than 5 twice, both at Texas) and the Park. If the roof is open, perhaps, but that’s actually, aside from the power alleys to the poles, a big outfield. Fausto can totally keep the ball down and on the ground, so I wouldn’t rule out the Astros and/or the under. The only way Houston has been scoring is the home run, and the only way Weaver tends to get beat is by giving up the home run. I don’t trust either bullpen and could easily make a case for the Astros F5.
Yes, there’s a couple more games. I like the over in the Mariners game and Teheran and a rested Braves team at +125 or whatever is doable.
