Friday 4/17/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #2 - AQUEDUCT - 1:49 PM EASTERN POST


The Plenty of Grace Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS TURF FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#4 TOKYO TIME
#3 CUSHION
#1 NATALIE VICTORIA
#6 PRINCIPESSA AVA

Well folks ... here in the initial running of the Plenty of Grace, who won the 1992 running of the Diana Stakes at Saratoga, with Jockey Herb McCauley in her irons ... #1 NATALIE VICTORIA has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts, including a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. #3 CUSHION, a British-bred entry, is the overall speed leader in this field racing at today's distance of a mile on the turf, and has also turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts, hitting the board in three, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Friday 4/17 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

3,5,8/3,5/1,5/2,5 = $24


LATE PICK 4: 2,3,5/1,3,7/1,3,4/1 = $27

MEET STATS: 13 - 42 / $58.70 BEST BETS: 4 - 4 / $13.30

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 4 / $0.00

Best Bet: PEPPERMINT PATTI (1st)

Spot Play: K D BELLA (7th)


Race 1

(3) PEPPERMINT PATTI showed good improvement two back then popped at a huge price last week vs. better than she faces here. Moreau has her priced to win and possibly get claimed; top call. (5) GOOD LUCK KATHY can leave hard and sit a good trip here. Don't be surprised to see A. Mac angling her out of the pocket with dead aim turning home. (6) EXHILIRATED drops to her lowest level in a while and should threaten here.

Race 2

(2) LETS LEAVEM takes a big class plunge and Robinson/Christoforou have enjoyed some success already at this meet. He should get the job done vs. this group. (5) LEXUS HELIOS looked good in her qualifier and gets a good post to work with; contender. (3) SANTO DOMINGO is the ultimate win-shy type, but should get a good spot early and hang around for a slice here.

Race 3

(5) MARLEE B had a useful season's debut last week and should be put into the race earlier here. Note she took her lifetime mark over this track last summer. (3) AMERICAN IN PARIS - a win machine in 2014 - looks ready to roll again and is the one to overhaul. (4) D GS PESQUERO got stung first up in a quick third 1/4 last week and is capable of better with an easier trip.

Race 4

(3) LOVELY ERIN holds a rare distinction of starting her career with two wins from the 10-hole. She steps into a tougher class but may be up to it. (5) BEYONCES ROCKS drops out of the Blossom Series where she held her own vs. better and is obviously the one to beat. (8) AKISSFROMTHEHEART got good near the end of last year, finishing third in the OSS Superfinal. Toss her on your pick 4 ticket.

Race 5

(5) MICHAELS TURN easily rolled by his foes late last time to stay undefeated. We don't see any reason why his streak should end here. (3) MAGIC MADNESS couldn't threaten a tough winner last week but got a clean trip in after breaking two back. She may be driven a bit more aggressively here. (6) TENOR DUHARAS closed well in his Mohawk debut and is a good one to use in the exotics at a price.

Race 6

(1) NINE LIVES HANOVER went a huge first-up mile last week - including a 27 2/5 second 1/4 - and just missed. The move up in class may help the price; top contender. (5) MISTRESSTOTHESTARS couldn't keep up to the leader on an off track last week. Menary is off to a quick start this meet. Look for this one to rebound. (10) CHAMPAGNE SHOWER was noticeably motoring in the last few yards to get up late. She likely tries the same tactics here from the 10-hole.

Race 7

(2) K D BELLA showed enough late speed in her qualifier to suggest she can contend immediately. Top call at hopefully a square price vs. this suspect group. (5) WHITEGLOVES almost lasted in his most recent and will take plenty of action as a result. (4) WARAWEE PROTON should be able to follow along and grab a share.

Race 8

(2) HIGH FASHION MEL exits the Blossom Series to face much easier and should be a big threat here. (3) PINOT GRIGIO is turning into a bit of a hanger but anything she is chasing in here shouldn't be that hard to catch. (5) WAR FILLY had a nice win over this oval last week and is the one to beat.

Race 9

(7) ABC MUSCLES BOY missed a week then was passively driven over this track last week. Look for pilot Massey to send him here. (3) LUCKY MASS raced well from an outer post on a very sloppy track to finish just behind an undefeated winner; contender. (1) DONGANGO has the habit of getting some troubled trips. Maybe from the inside here he'll get a good one for a change.

Race 10

(3) BET YA suffered interference while on the move last week yet still stormed home to just miss. She is one of the top contenders here. (1) KISS ME OR NOT went coast-to-coast returning a crazy $15 to her backers last week. The price drops here, but keep her on pick 4 tickets. (4) WANNA ROCK N ROLL sat the pocket and split the top two. She too is capable with the right trip.

Race 11

(1) GIVE ME AN AMEN drops back to a class where she won as a big favorite two back. She didn't look the soundest that night so you might want to watch her in the post parade and scoring down. (5) A REAL COMMITMENT continues to thrive for Nixon and fits this class well. (10) BULLET POINT drops to her lowest class in a long time and likely blasts off the gate here on a speed mission. (7) WINDSONG JACOBA has hit her best stride and should be closing for a piece of this. (9) SHADYS M THREE returned to her favorite track and scored at big odds in her season debut; using.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 4/17 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 157 - 596 / $842.50 BEST BETS: 20 - 49 / $74.90

Best Bet: TAG UP AND GO (11th)

Spot Play: TIGERS TOO GOOD (9th)


Race 1

It is worth noting that the track had a strong speed bias last weekend. It is worth keeping an eye on this Friday.

This amateur event shapes up as wide-open and almost any of the nine could score. (9) AND HEEZ PERFECT went a bit too quickly early at Philly last time. There should be a quick pace in here and I can see this guy coming hard late at a decent price. (7) MR RIDGETAKER almost lasted the distance despite looking like he could break at any moment two weeks ago. If trainer McDermott has him straightened out, this one will be tough. (8) JACKS TO OPEN bested the former last time; threat. (5) PICTURE PERFECT fits nicely with this group and hails from a good barn.

Race 2

(8) WHOM SHALL I FEAR is a full brother to Father Patrick, so the bloodlines are solid. His qualifier was good and in a field full of potential breakers he figures to be close to the pace despite the outside post. (2) DANISH DURANGO could have qualified better, but we’ve seen this barn improve horses by leaps and bounds off a soft morning effort. (3) MADMAN HALL trotted home willingly in his first start of the year. (5) STARZINNER was better than the line looks in his most recent qualifier; using.

Race 3

(9) CASANOVA LINDY was a solid second last time. As long as driver Hannah Miller fires this gelding off the gate to at least get position, he should be the one to beat. (6) GLOBAL POWER seems to be moving in the right direction and should offer fair value. (8) MAJESTIC GINGER was super while sweeping the field back on March 20, but blew up last time; risky but capable.

Race 4

(3) LADY WINONA rolled down the road while completely on her own in her lone qualifier. Credit Winner filly could finally be ready to live up to her $155,000 Harrisburg price tag. (10) JEWELS IN HOCK has displayed flashes of clear ability yet could not get her act together in January. Now she returns for new trainer Linda Toscano and qualified well; worth some thought. (1) BLK THAI OPTIONAL raced evenly in her career debut and can build on that effort. (7) MARION MILLIONAIR comes off a win but finds herself in deeper waters now.

Race 5

(4) JANIE BAY should get away in closer attendance from the better post this week. It also helps that he goes from a field of sharp horses to a more questionable group. (5) SIR LEHIGH Z TAM finds the perfect spot to fire off the gate. If Smith gets aggressively this mare could prove very tough. (1) CANDY STYX N would figure to try to flash early speed in this spot; using underneath. (6) SMOKIN N GRININ adds Gingras and could easily wake up.

Race 6

(7) WIND OF THE NORTH wired the field in this class last week and faces a very similar group once again. No reason to believe he won’t fire down the road once again. (5) HANDOVER BELLE perked up against lesser a week ago. At least you know the price will be right with Gingras opting elsewhere. (1) MASTER OF LAW & (1A) LINDY’S TRU GRIT form a capable entry; exacta must.

Race 7

There are quite a few options in this race. (5) THAT WOMAN HANOVER picks up a more accomplished pilot this week after a good tightening mile with the trainer in the bike. This gal has some ability and should be able to show more in her second start. (3) COFFEE ADDICT was beaten up by some better foes at Yonkers in the Blue Chip and now tries the big track with Gingras in the bike. (8) PAN LUIS OBISPO is clearly the sharpest horse in the race; post could hurt. (2) CLORIS HANOVER drops down but usually needs a clean trip.

Race 8

(4) B L CLASS ACT has been chasing the speedy Pounce Hanover of late and now catches a duller group. I’m expecting Campbell to get aggressive with this veteran. (6) HOME TURF has raced well for Gingras; another with early speed. (1) ALL ABOUT JUSTICE should stay close from the inside post and have a chance. (3) MY MUSCLEMAN is back at the Meadowlands at a reduced level. You toss the start from the outside post at Saratoga and the break in the prior start. He has some excuses.

Race 9

(2) TIGER’S TOO GOOD took four months off and was greeted with two outside posts. His second effort was better than his 2015 debut and I can see a big step forward coming with this huge post advantage over his main competition. (9) STITCH IN TIME has posted back to back wins and only has the outside draw standing in his way. (8) POUNCE HANOVER is fast off the gate and on a winning streak of his own, but he is facing tougher this week. (6) SCORCHER HALL righted the ship with the hobbles added last time. (7) LAUDERDALE gets plenty of class relief. Will that help?

Race 10

(4) WICKER HANOVER was an easy winner while completely on his own in his qualifier. While he stands out for me in this field, I caution that he is facing some older foes and is by no means a lock. I always seem to be surprised when (10) FERRAGAMO wins. Credit Brett Miller for a good drive last time. (3) ENTRANCED was Callahan’s call over a few others, which surprised me. Maybe he knows something I don’t.

Race 11

(5) TAG UP AND GO fired off the gate and was a good second behind a horse that moved up to the Open level this week. Staying in the same class, this is his race to lose. (3) TWIN B SPIKE MAN is capable with the right trip and the switch to Campbell could help. (4) SWEET JUSTICE was hung out last time. I’m not going to hold that against him.

Race 12

(4) BROOKLYNS BEST kept up with the field while not showing much in his last start, just his second race since December. He drops to the basement claiming level and could awaken. (1) EVERYMILEAMEMORY has won consecutive starts since the purchase by owner/driver Nick Surick. My main concern here is that she is 9 and her lifetime mark is over a half-mile track. (6) MCNICKELS MCDIMES is somewhat tempting because she shows reasonable lines over the track, but she also lacks mile track success.

Race 13

(10) DREAM ROCKER went a nice mile the last time Gingras jumped in the bike. Post 10 doesn’t help, but this guy can fire off the gate and take this dull field down the road. (1) FALCOR BLUESTONE should be handled with vigor from the inside post and have every chance to win. (5) PT’S BOOMERANG is a steady sort; not impossible. (3) CIAO BELA looks okay if you toss the break last time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 4/17 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 54 - 322 / $409.20 BEST BETS: 4 - 27 / $17.70

Best Bet: JACK ATTACK (5th)

Spot Play: UPFRONT COUNTRYBOY (12th)


Race 1

(1) ADDWATER moves down in class and draws the rail slot; ready to score tonight. (6) TALKTOMECOURAGE N has fine speed and will be the one to catch. (3) WINTER BLUES got the job done down the road last out.

Race 2

(4) FLEX THE MUSCLE Based on his last two trips, he is knocking at the door and is capable of returning back to his winning ways. (1) MUGSHOT JESS closed strongly to nail down the placing recently. (6) IT REALLY MATTERS should be right square in the mix.

Race 3

(4) ALLSTAR BLUES tired in the stretch drive last out but this pacer could take this with a fine-timed drive from Buter. (8) CHINA DREAM has wheeled off two straight victories at Monticello; main danger. (5) BABES I SCOOT could make some noise down the lane.

Race 4

(1) JOLLY JUBITER has put in four sharp efforts and tonight draws the fence; ready to boss these. (6) GREYSTONE CASH just got up for win honors last time out. (4) FLYING INSTRUCTOR was second best in his latest.

Race 5

(1) JACK ATTACK returns to the fence where this pacer was a clear-cut winner two trips ago. At his best, he can make tonight a winning one. (4) DIAMONDKEEPER is on a roll scoring the hat trick last week. (5) GRANDPA DON has hit the board in his last three tries.

Race 6

(1) CAMILLE She has been one sharp cookie and good to see her back on the fence; ready to roll. (5) KRISPY APPLE just got up for the place spot last time around; main danger. (2) FOR THE LADIES N could have a say with these.

Race 7

(6) ANNDROVETTE is seeking her first score of the year and this looks like a perfect spot for this 5-year-old mare to make that happen. (5) FANTICIPATION put in two good efforts in her latest. (3) MEDUSA could be a factor in this event.

Race 8

(4) SIR JILLIAN Z TAM is back in the 4-hole where she was a game second two starts back; all systems go for glory. (1) HANDSOFFMYCOOKIE should fare well from the fence. (8) LITTLE SANTAMONICA just held on for the victory last time around.

Race 9

(3) SCOOTIN FOR JOY was nailed for the score last time out. Pacing mare fits well in here and with a perfect trip, she can get the job done. (2) HANDSOFFMYCUPCAKE put in a sharp effort in her last trip to the post. (1) NEFERTITI BLUECHIP She has tactical speed and will be right in the mix.

Race 10

(4) CAVIART KEY raced evenly in his last try and this gelding could rate and attack down the lane; worth a shot. (1) POP COP was caught at the wire in his last one so the rail slot should make him a serious threat. (5) VERSADO has scored in his last two at Philly; watch out.

Race 11

(2) FOX VALLEY DEUCE If he gets the right trip, he could mow these down at his best. (1) MAKES ME STUPID rallied strongly for the show spot last out; contender. (6) DAVID THE SAINT has some speed and is not out of this.

Race 12

(5) UPFRONT COUNTRYBOY Even finish in his last one and this gelding has good early zip. So with that said, a golden trip will put this guy back into the winner's circle. (8) FORT KNOX Post hurts but has sharp connections in his corner; main danger. (1) BOX CAR JOHNNIE can make some noise from the fence.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Keyaly, 3-1
(8th) Camille's Storm, 3-1

Charles Town (2nd) Lemon Kay, 9-2
(7th) It All Adds Up, 9-2

Evangeline Downs (3rd) Cajun Hellraiser, 3-1
(10th) She's Foxy, 9-2

Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Grazenette, 9-2
(5th) Rockin Denile, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Afleet Accompli, 7-2
(6th) Love Flute, 3-1


Hawthorne (5th) Awesome Venture, 7-2
(6th) Smoke in the City, 7-2


Keeneland (3rd) Indy Gale, 5-1
(10th) Hollywood Critic, 3-1


Lone Star Park (7th) Julie's Memory, 9-2
(9th) Preskit Sue, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (7th) Plazarita, 7-2
(8th) Flat River, 9-2


Penn National (2nd) Rico Does Magic, 6-1
(3rd) Avie, 9-2


Pimlico (1st) Proration, 9-2
(5th) Classic Speed, 3-1


Santa Anita (1st) Wicked Finance, 7-2
(8th) Sparkling Peg, 7-2


Tampa Bay Downs (1st) Bush Hill, 3-1
(9th) Lost in the Forest, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto: Food City 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts

It's time for some short track racing at Thunder Valley where tempers usually flare, and an assortment of winners can call themselves winners compared to the old days when the same group of drivers continually won. It might be a good idea this week to invest a little more in future wagers since Kevin Harvick's edge isn't so dramatic there.

Harvick will once gain be favored to win this week just because of finishing second or better in six of his seven starts this season, but Bristol Motor Speedway will be some tough competition. He captured his only Bristol win back in 2005, but hasn’t had a top-five finish there since 2008 -- a span of 12 races.

The half-mile high banked layout of Bristol should offer a few solid candidates to win this week, and while Harvick will still be very good, he’s not as intimidating there as he is on a down force track. He didn’t win at Texas last week, but he was second again and led 96 laps which now totals him at 766 laps led this season. There are only 2,150 laps run altogether so far, which shows just how intimidating Harvick has been.

Last season we had a couple surprise winners with Carl Edwards and Joey Logano grabing the checkers. In 2013, it was Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth and before that it was Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin, which shows quite a diverse amount of drivers having success.

This track allows drivers to comfortably run two wide and passing happens on both the inside and outside groove, which takes away some of the excitement we used to love about Bristol where everyone was fighting for that inside line. Despite the cosmetic changes to Bristol, it’s still good old fashioned short track racing on the fastest half-mile track. There should be an opportunity to find a driver at a nice price.

This is the eighth race of the season, but we can’t really use data from any of those races because nothing quite runs the same as Bristol, not even the flat half-mile layout of Martinsville. Perhaps the track that’s most similar is the one-mile layout at Dover, but we won’t see racing there until late May. So we’re kind of on our own for Sunday’s race with Friday and Saturday’s practices being extremely pivotal to the betting equation.

Here’s a look at the top candidates to beat Harvick this week:

Brad Keselowski: He’s a two-time winner and finished second in the fall Bristol race last season. He’s finished third or better in four of the past seven Bristol starts and should be considered the best candidate to win, especially since five-time Bristol winner Kyle Busch isn’t racing.

Matt Kenseth: He’s a three -time Bristol winner and has been outstanding there in every type of layout with two different teams. He finished third last fall and last won in 2013,

Dale Earnhardt Jr: His only win came in the fall of 2004, but he’s averaged an 11.9 finish in the 20 races since which is fourth best among all drivers over that span. He had a rough 2014 at Bristol, but his team has been dialed in for almost every race this season.

Jimmie Johnson: This isn’t his best track and his only win there came in 2010. He’s had a top-10 finish in eight of his last 12 starts there.

Kurt Busch: He used to be the King of Bristol until his brother took over. He’s a five-time winner, but the last one came in 2006. He should have a car as good Harvick’s and be contending for the win.

Joey Logano: He won the fall race last season and is getting really good on every track in the series. He has to be in conversation about winning.

Roush Fenway Racing: They’ve been absolute jjunk all season, but if last season is any indication, they should run well at Bristol. Ricky Stenhouse Jr finished second and sixth and Greg Biffle was 10th and 12th. Biffle has never won at Bristol, but always seem to be right in the mix of things with the leaders.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
2) #41 Kurt Busch (8/1)
3) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
4) #20 Joey Logano (10/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Opening Series Odds

Home Team listed first - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)
(Opening Odds in parentheses)

Eastern Conference - First Round

Atlanta vs. Brooklyn
Hawks (-1500)
Nets (+800)

Cleveland vs. Boston
Cavaliers (-3500)
Celtics (+1500)

Chicago vs. Milwaukee
Bulls (-750)
Bucks (+500)

Toronto vs. Washington
Raptors (-200)
Wizards (+165)

Western Conference - First Round

Golden State vs. New Orleans
Warriors (-6000)
Pelicans (+2000)

Houston vs. Dallas
Rockets (-380)
Mavericks (+300)

L.A. Clippers vs. San Antonio
Clippers (+140)
Spurs (-165)

Memphis vs. Portland
Grizzlies (-165)
Trail Blazers (+130)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Playoff Cheat Sheet - East

(1) Atlanta vs. (8) Brooklyn

Series Price - Hawks (-1500) Nets (+800)

Overall Record

Atlanta 60-22 SU, 51-31 ATS
Brooklyn 38-44 SU, 39-41-2 ATS

Home Record

Atlanta 35-6 SU, 26-15 ATS
Brooklyn 19-22 SU, 16-23-2 ATS

Road Record

Atlanta 25-16 SU, 25-16 ATS
Brooklyn 19-22 SU, 23-18 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Atlanta 42-39-1 (20-20-1, 22-19)
Brooklyn 36-45-1 (19-21-1, 17-24)

2014-15 Meetings

Dec. 5, 2014 - Atlanta 98 at Brooklyn 75 (Hawks -1, Under 201)
Jan 28, 2015 - Brooklyn 102 at Atlanta 113 (Hawks -14, Over 192)
Apr 4, 2015 - Brooklyn 99 at Atlanta 131 (Hawks -10.5, Over 206)
Apr 8, 2015 - Atlanta 114 at Brooklyn 111 (Hawks +4.5, Over 204.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Atlanta

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference 1st Round (Indiana, 3-4)
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference 1st Round (Indiana, 2-4)
2011-12 - Lost Eastern Conference 1st Round (Boston, 2-4)
2010-11 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Chicago, 2-4)
2009-10 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Orlando, 0-4)

Brooklyn

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Miami, 1-4)
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference 1st Round (Chicago, 3-4)
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

(2) Cleveland vs. (7) Boston

Series Price - Cavaliers (-3500) Celtics (+1500)

Overall Record

Cleveland 53-29 SU, 39-43 ATS
Boston 40-42 SU, 49-32-1 ATS

Home Record

Cleveland 31-10 SU, 21-20 ATS
Boston 21-20 SU, 22-18-1 ATS

Road Record

Cleveland 22-19 SU, 18-23 ATS
Boston 19-22 SU, 27-14 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Cleveland 32-47-3 (14-25-2, 18-22-1)
Boston 43-39 (23-18, 20-21)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 14, 2014 - Cleveland 122 at Boston 121 (Cavaliers -6, Over 208.5)
Mar 3, 2015 - Boston 79 at Cleveland 110 (Cavaliers -11, Under 210)
Apr 10, 2015 - Boston 99 at Cleveland 90 (Celtics +6, Under 208.5)
Apr 12, 2015 - Cleveland 78 at Boston 117 (Celtics -10.5, Under 197.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Cleveland

2013-14 - No Playoffs
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Boston, 2-4)

Boston

2013-14 - No Playoffs
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (New York, 2-4)
2011-12 - Lost Eastern Conference Finals (Miami, 3-4)
2010-11 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Miami, 1-4)
2009-10 - Lost NBA Finals (L.A. Lakers, 3-4)

(3) Chicago vs. (6) Milwaukee

Series Price - Bulls (-750) Bucks (+500)

Overall Record

Chicago 50-32 SU, 39-43 ATS
Milwaukee 41-41 SU, 45-35-2 ATS

Home Record

Chicago 27-14 SU, 19-22 ATS
Milwaukee 23-18 SU, 19-21-1 ATS

Road Record

Chicago 23-18 SU, 20-21 ATS
Milwaukee 18-23 SU, 26-14-1 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)
Chicago 41-39-2 (25-16, 16-23-2)
Milwaukee 37-45 (17-24, 20-21)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 5, 2014 - Chicago 95 at Milwaukee 86 (Bulls -5, Under 191)
Jan 10, 2015 - Milwaukee 87 at Chicago 95 (Bulls -6, Under 194)
Feb 23, 2015 - Milwaukee 71 at Chicago 87 (Bulls -7, Under 193)
Apr 1, 2015 - Chicago 91 at Milwaukee 95 (Bucks +5, Under 191.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Chicago

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Washington, 1-4)
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Miami, 1-4)
2011-12 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Philadelphia, 2-4)
2010-11 - Lost Eastern Conference Finals (Miami, 1-4)
2009-10 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Cleveland, 1-4)

Milwaukee

2013-14 - No Playoffs
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Miami, 0-4)
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Atlanta, 3-4)

(4) Toronto vs. (5) Washington

Series Price - Raptors (-200) Wizards (+165)

Overall Record

Toronto 49-33 SU, 37-44-1 ATS
Washington 46-36 SU, 34-47-1 ATS

Home Record

Toronto 27-14 SU, 17-24 ATS
Washington 29-12 SU, 17-23-1 ATS

Road Record

Toronto 22-19 SU, 20-20-1 ATS
Washington 17-24 SU, 17-24 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Toronto 44-37-1 (18-23, 26-14)
Washington 38-41-3 (21-19-1, 17-22-2)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 7, 2014 Washington 84 at Toronto 103 (Raptors -4, Under 195.5)
Jan 31, 2015 Toronto 120 at Washington 116 (Raptors +5, Over 203.5)
Feb 11, 2015 Washington 93 at Toronto 95 (Raptors -5, Under 196)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Toronto

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Brooklyn, 3-4)
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

Washington

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Indiana, 2-4)
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Playoff Cheat Sheet - West

(1) Golden State vs. (8) New Orleans

Series Price - Warriors (-6000) Pelicans (+2000)

Overall Record

Golden State 67-15 SU, 46-34-2 ATS
New Orleans 45-37 SU, 46-36 ATS

Home Record

Golden State 39-2 SU, 20-21 ATS
New Orleans 28-13 SU, 25-16 ATS

Road Record

Golden State 28-13 SU, 20-20-1 ATS
New Orleans 17-24 SU, 21-20 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Golden State 39-43 (22-19, 17-24)
New Orleans 42-37-3 (24-17, 18-20-3)

2014-15 Meetings

Dec 4, 2014 - New Orleans 85, Golden State 112 (Warriors -9.5, Under 206.5)
Dec 14, 2014 - Golden State 128, New Orleans 122 OT (Pelicans +6.5, Over 205.5)
Mar 20, 2015 - New Orleans 96, Golden State 112 (Warriors -14, Over 201.5)
Apr 7, 2015 - Golden State 100, New Orleans 103 (Pelicans +4.5, Under 206.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Golden State

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (L.A. Clippers, 3-4)
2012-13 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (San Antonio, 2-4)
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

New Orleans

2013-14 - No Playoffs
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (L.A. Lakers, 2-4)
2009-10 - No Playoffs

(2) Houston vs. (7) Dallas

Series Price - Rockets (-380) Mavericks (+300)

Overall Record

Houston 56-26 SU, 48-34 ATS
Dallas 50-32 SU, 35-44-3 ATS

Home Record

Houston 30-11 SU, 26-15 ATS
Dallas 27-14 SU, 15-23-3 ATS

Road Record

Houston 26-15 SU, 22-19 ATS
Dallas 23-18 SU, 20-21 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Houston 40-41-1 (19-22, 21-19-1)
Dallas 39-43 (21-20, 18-23)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 22, 2014 - Dallas 92, Houston 95 (Rockets +4, Under 205)
Jan 28, 2015 - Dallas 94, Houston 99 (Rockets -4, Under 210.5)
Feb 20, 2015 - Houston 100, Dallas 111 (Mavericks -2.5, Under 212.5)
Apr 2, 2015 - Houston 108, Dallas 101 (Rockets +2.5, Under 210.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Houston

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Portland, 2-4)
2012-13 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Oklahoma City, 2-4)
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

Dallas

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (San Antonio, 3-4)
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Oklahoma City, 0-4)
2010-11 - Won NBA Championship (Miami, 4-2)
2009-10 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (San Antonio, 2-4)

(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) San Antonio

Series Price - Spurs (-175) Clippers (+150)

Overall Record

L.A. Clippers 56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS
San Antonio 55-27 SU, 41-39-2 ATS

Home Record

L.A. Clippers 30-11 SU, 16-25 ATS
San Antonio 33-8 SU, 21-18-2 ATS

Road Record

L.A. Clippers 26-15 SU, 22-19 ATS
San Antonio 22-19 SU, 20-21 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

L.A. Clippers 38-43-1 (15-26, 23-17-1)
San Antonio 39-42-1 (23-18, 16-24-1)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 10, 2014 - San Antonio 89, L.A. Clippers 85 (Spurs +1.5, Under 202)
Dec 22, 2014 - L.A. Clippers 118, San Antonio 125 (Spurs -1, Over 203.5)
Jan 31, 2015 - L.A. Clippers 105, San Antonio 85 (Clippers +5, Under 205)
Feb 19, 2015 - San Antonio 115, L.A. Clippers 119 (Clippers +2.5, Over 202)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

L.A. Clippers

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (Oklahoma City, 2-4)
2012-13 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Memphis, 2-4)
2011-12 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (San Antonio, 0-4)
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

San Antonio

2013-14 - Won NBA Championship (Miami, 4-1)
2012-13 - Lost NBA Championship (Miami, 4-3)
2011-12 - Lost Western Conference Finals (Oklahoma City, 2-4)
2010-11 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Memphis, 2-4)
2009-10 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (Phoenix, 0-4)

(4) Portland vs. (5) Memphis

Series Price - Grizzlies (-155) Blazers (+130)

Overall Record

Portland 51-31 SU, 40-41-1 ATS
Memphis 55-27 SU, 41-40-1 ATS

Home Record

Portland 32-9 SU, 22-18-1 ATS
Memphis 31-10 SU, 21-19-1 ATS

Road Record

Portland 19-22 SU, 18-23 ATS
Memphis 24-17 SU, 20-21 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Portland 39-41-2 (15-24-2, 24-17)
Memphis 35-44-3 (13-25-3, 22-19)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 28, 2014 - Memphis 112, Portland 99 (Grizzlies +3.5, Over 194)
Jan 17, 2015 - Portland 98, Memphis 102 (Grizzlies -2.5, Over 197.5)
Feb 22, 2015 - Memphis 98, Portland 92 (Grizzlies +1.5, Under 193)
Mar 21, 2015 - Portland 86, Memphis 97 (Grizzlies -3, Under 192.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Portland

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (San Antonio, 1-4)
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Dallas, 2-4)
2009-10 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Phoenix, 2-4)

Memphis

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Oklahoma City, 3-4)
2012-13 - Lost Western Conference Finals (San Antonio, 0-4)
2011-12 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (L.A. Clippers, 3-4)
2010-11 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (Oklahoma City, 3-4)
2009-10 - No Playoffs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Playoff Zig-Zag Theory
By Marc Lawrence

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs. The premise is simple: ‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2014.

Game On, Dude

Overall: 786-693-37 (53.1%)
Game Two: 195-153-13 (54.7%)
Game Three: 195-159-6 (55.1%)
Game Four: 159-163-8 (49.4%)
Game Five: 128-121-6 (51.4%)
Game Six: 79-70-2 (53.0%)
Game Seven: 30-27-2 (52.6%)

The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Three where they become a better than 55% point spread play on the blind.

Burn Baby Burn

Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the odds makers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 14 years (2001-2014), going 475-444-27– or 51.6% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

That’s a decline of nearly 4 full percentage points. Talk about a buzz kill.

Round ‘Em Up

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared during each round of the NBA Playoffs since 1991:

Round One: 377-330-21 (53.3%)
Round Two: 235-205-7 (53.4%)
Round Three: 116-108-6 (51.8%)
Round Four: 58-50-3 (53.7%)

While it appears there is hold no discernable edge between rounds, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round Two have delivered the largest profits, as they are 80-51-3.

Planting The Seed

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:

No. 1 Seeds: 110-101-5 (52.1%)
No. 2 Seeds: 107-86-4 (55.4%)
No. 3 Seeds: 91-80-9 (53.2%)
No. 4 Seeds: 79-71-1 (52.7%)
No. 5 Seeds: 72-68-2 (51.4%)
No. 6 Seeds: 62-55-2 (53.0%)
No. 7 Seeds: 42-61-4 (40.8%)
No. 8 Seeds: 62-44-5 (58.5%)

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.

Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Rocky Mountain High

So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Simple. Look to back double-digit underdogs when they are off a SU and ATS loss. They’ve stood the test of time, going 33-18-2 ATS since 1991. That’s a pretty high 64.7% winning percentage when you think about it.

So instead of zigging when you should be zagging, check out the optimum roles outlined above... and enjoy the games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Can underdogs dominate NBA Playoffs betting like last year?
By JASON LOGAN

NBA betting underdogs were unleashed in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs last year, going an incredible 32-19-1 ATS (with one pick’em game) and covering the spread at a near 63 percent rate.

And that was the story for most of the 2014 postseason as well, as NBA underdogs finished the playoffs with a 52-36-1 ATS mark (57.8 percent). That Round 1 trend bled over into the conference semifinals, where underdogs finished 14-9 ATS, then went south in the conference finals (3-9 ATS) before showing up a bit in the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs (3-2 ATS).

So, will basketball bettors see similar success blindly betting the underdog when the 2015 NBA Playoffs start Saturday?

“With the Western Conference, it’s a lot closer than the Eastern Conference this year,” Mark Tomita, assistant manager at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas tells Covers. “The West looks pretty wide open this year.”

Tomita does expect the public to come in heavy on the notable favorites, like Golden State and Cleveland, but says early money has already taken San Antonio, which is a 1.5-point pup at the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.

As for which playoff teams hold the most underdog value, here are the top NBA underdog bets this season:

New Orleans Pelicans - 26-13 ATS
Boston Celtics - 31-17 ATS
Milwaukee Bucks - 29-20-1 ATS
Atlanta Hawks – 12-9-1 ATS
Houston Rockets - 16-12 ATS
Memphis Grizzlies – 13-10 ATS

In a cruel twist of this trend, NBA bettors should beware of double-digit NBA Playoff underdogs. Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, when Round 1 went to a best-of-seven format from best-of-five, double-digit dogs are just 29-42-3 ATS (6-68 SU) in the postseason - covering just 41 percent of the time.

There are a pair of double-digit underdogs on the board for this weekend’s games: New Orleans +11 at Golden State, and Boston +11 at Cleveland. Those two teams, as shown above, just so happen to be the top underdog bets in the NBA this season.

Underdog-heavy results are a double-edged sword for sportsbooks. While the general public gravitates towards the big-name favorites, the sharp bettors tend to take the points in the NBA Playoffs. This is especially true with some of the earlier weekday postseason time slots – the 7 p.m. ET starts – which are on at 4 p.m. in Nevada.

These weekday afternoon games in Las Vegas don’t get much walk-in traffic from tourists and conference goers, which leaves the books to go one-on-one with the wiseguys in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs, with little money from the betting public to limit liability.

“The midweek people aren't getting engaged until after 5 p.m. and it makes the late games much more attractive, since they can come in and place a bet and have a beer,” Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports from MGM properties in Las Vegas,said last April. “That leaves us going head-to-head with sharps in the early games. So if the underdogs are covering in those early midweek games, it’s not good for us.”

Last year’s early underdog trend did pull a fair share of public bettors away from the favorites. Rood said that NBA regular season games will see an 80/20 split of money on the favorite and underdog but that difference drops to 75/25 in the postseason.

As for the regular season giving any hints of how the playoffs could lean, oddsmakers did their job handicapping the games. Favorites and underdogs split, each going 601-601-27 ATS on the year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Four NBA teams to be wary of backing this postseason
Andrew Caley

The Washington Wizards, Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors and the Los Angeles Clippers are teams to be wary of when making playoff wagers this postseason.

These four teams are not only the worst playoffs teams against the spread, some were just plain the worst, starting with the Wizards.

Washington ended the season tied for the worst ATS record in the NBA at 33-46-3 ATS. However, their opponent in the first round, the Raptors, were not much better at 37-44-1 ATS.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks and Clippers, who compiled 50 and 56 wins respectively this season, could never quite meet books expectations. The Mavs posted the NBA's sixth worst ATS record at 36-44-2 ATS (and take on one of the best bets in Houston in the first round), while the Clippers went 37-44-1 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nets the lone team in playoffs who've been outscored
Justin Hartling

The Brooklyn Nets squeaked into the NBA playoffs thanks to a weak Eastern Conference and they hold a special distinction thanks to that. The Nets are the only team in the NBA playoffs to hold a negative scoring differential this season, being outscored by 2.9 points per game.

The next lowest team is the Boston Celtics who are averaging a +0.2 scoring margin on the regular season.

The Nets opened at +9 for Game 1 against the Atlanta Hawks Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NBA Second Season'

The 2014-15 NBA Playoffs get underway Saturday at 12:10 EST at the Air Canada Center where Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards tip things off. Raptors ended the campaign 49-33 with a 37-44-1 ATS mark at the betting window netting 108.1 per 100 possessions giving up 104.9 per 100. Wizards finished 46-36 SU, 33-46-3 ATS dropping 101.8 through the iron on an adjusted basis but were a lot stingier on the defensive end allowing 99.5 per 100 possessions. Both had a dismal second half. Raptors went 13-16 SU, 11-18 ATS the Wizards were 13-15 with a 10-16-2 mark against the betting line. Negative history aside, Raptors came down the stretch 7-3 (5-5 ATS) behind an adjusted 108.3 PPG while allowing 102.3 per/contest. The Wizards closed things out 6-4 (5-3-2 ATS) netting 100.0 PPG allowing opponents 97.2 per/game. A few trends to ponder when handicapping this game. Raptors were 2-1 ATS vs Wizards this season and have a 7-4 ATS mark L11 meetings, 7-3 ATS stretch last 10 as home favorite in the series. Wizards ended the campaign 11-20-1 ATS vs a teams netting =>102 points/game and were 3-8-1 ATS with 2 days rest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Friday's games

Canadiens scored four second period goals to win Game 1 4-3, in game with scoreless third period; two of three Senator goals came on power play (2-5, Montreal was 0-1). Ottawa won three of its last four games with Montreal; over is 7-1-1 in last nine series games. Senators won six of last eight games overall; five of those eight stayed under total. Sens won three of last five on road. Montreal won last four games overall, allowing ten goals; over is 5-0-2 in their last seven games.

Islanders scored three goals on 16 shots in periods 2-3 in 4-1 Game 1 win; they've lost six of last ten games overall, with over 4-2-1 in last seven. Both teams were 0-2 on power play in Game 1; Caps won faceoffs 39-23, but didn't score goal on 18 shots in periods 2-3. Caps won five of its last eight games with over 6-2-1 in last nine. Home side won four of last five series games; Isles lost four of last six visits here.

Chicago was down 3-0 after first period in Game 1, switched goalies, wound up winning 4-3 in double OT, its first win in last five games overall. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Nashville has now lost seven games in row overall, allowing 29 goals; they missed playoffs last two years- in their franchise history, they're 2-5 in first round series. Chicago won four of last five games with Nashville; six of last nine series games stayed under total.

Calgary scored with 0:30 left to win Game 1; they've lost last seven first round series- its last series win was in 1993. Flames won last three games with Vancouver 1-0/3-2/2-1 after losing previous eight series games; under is 4-1-1 in last six played here. Canucks won five of last eight games; they missed playoffs LY, haven't won playoff series since '10. Flames also won six of last eight games, with five of last six staying under.

Home teams are 4-4 in this round; over is 4-3-1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Rangers (4-6) at Mariners (3-6)

Game: 1
Venue: Safeco Field
Date: April 17, 2015 10:10 PM EDT

Already tied for the second-longest home run streak in Seattle Mariners history, Nelson Cruz might be able to continue his historic power surge given his recent at_bats against Yovani Gallardo.

Cruz will try to go deep in a sixth straight game while helping the Mariners end their losing streak in the opener of a nine-game homestand Friday night against the Texas Rangers.

Cruz went 2 for 3 with his sixth home run in the last five games Wednesday, but couldn't prevent Seattle from a 5-2 loss that capped a three-game sweep against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 34-year-old, who signed a four-year deal with the Mariners in the offseason, is 9 for 19 with nine RBIs during the longest homer streak of his career. Ken Griffey Jr. went deep in eight straight games while with Seattle in 1993, tying an MLB record.

"He's swinging the bat extremely well," manager Lloyd McClendon told MLB's official website. "He's slowing down, letting the ball travel, he's using the entire field to hit. He's doing a great job for us."

Cruz belted home runs in each of his two at_bats when facing Gallardo while with Baltimore in Milwaukee last season, when he finished with a league-high 40 homers.

Gallardo (1-1, 5.59 ERA), the Rangers' opening day starter after coming over from the Brewers, hopes to build on his first victory. He allowed two runs and eight hits over 5 2-3 innings in Saturday's 6-2 home win over Houston after lasting just one batter into the fifth in his debut.

The right-hander has never faced the Mariners (3-6), but he's limited Seth Smith to two hits in 17 at_bats and held Logan Morrison hitless in 14 dating to their matchups in the NL.

The Rangers' banged-up rotation has posted a 6.23 ERA while the team has dropped three of four. Spot-starter Anthony Ranaudo gave up six runs over 1 2-3 innings in Wednesday's 10-2 home loss to the Angels.

"We're a close staff and we have to keep going out there and competing," Gallardo said. "The five guys that we have in the rotation, we're up to the challenge."

Seattle's J.A. Happ will make his home debut after allowing two runs over 6 1-3 innings Saturday in a 5-4, 11-inning win at Oakland. He's 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in a pair of career starts against the Rangers (4-6), but hasn't faced them since August 2012.

Prince Fielder has the most experience facing Happ, going 6 for 19 with three doubles. Fielder is hitting .400 after missing most of last season due to neck surgery, though he's yet to hit his first home run.

Former Seattle outfielder Carlos Peguero has been a bright spot, going 5 for 13 with three doubles. He's filling in for the injured Ryan Rua, who is expected to miss at least one month with a severe ankle sprain and broken heel.

Seattle starters have an 8.00 ERA over their last seven outings and McClendon said he's sticking with Fernando Rodney after the closer surrendered six runs and seven hits in his last two appearances.

Texas closer Neftali Feliz, meanwhile, has yet to give up a run to Seattle in 26 innings over 21 career appearances.

The Rangers went 10-9 against the Mariners last season, including 5-4 at Safeco.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Burns NHL

10* B/C - Mon UNDER 5
10* Per Fav - Vancouver
9* Annill- Caps

 

[Landlord]

Home teams in hockey are 3-5 in first roundf, not 4-4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play 16-9 RUN, FRI Seattle w/ Happ

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Friday, April 17, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

The Los Angeles Dodgers lost consecutive starts by three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw just twice last season and won 20 of the final 21 times he took the mound in the regular season. However, he was knocked around a bit by the Cardinals in the NLDS and suffered two losses. Is there a postseason hangover? Have teams figured him out? Or nothing to worry about yet? I ask because Kershaw has a 5.84 ERA through two starts of 2015 and looks to avoid a second straight loss Friday against Colorado.

♦White Sox at Tigers (-170, 7)

First meeting of the season between the teams I expect to battle for the AL Central title, although obviously the red-hot Royals might have something to say about that. The Tigers’ chances might depend on Justin Verlander, who had a setback in rehab on Wednesday and now seems unlikely to pitch in the majors this month. David Price makes the start here. He was going to be a very rich man as a free agent this winter, but he has only helped his cause thus far, yet to allow an earned run in two starts and just nine hits in 14.1 innings. Last year, Price made two starts vs. the White Sox and was 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA. One was while he was still with the Rays. Adam Eaton is 5-for-8 career off him. Jose Abreu is 1-for-7 with a homer. Jeff Samardzija, another free agent this winter, goes for the Pale Hose. He hasn’t been sharp, allowing at least four earned runs in each of his first two starts. The only Tigers batter who has ever faced him is J.D. Martinez (2-for-6 with three RBIs).

Key trends: The Tigers are 4-1 in Price’s past five at home. The “over/under” has gone over in six straight Friday games for Detroit. The over has hit in nine of the past 12 in Motown vs. the White Sox.

Early lean: Not sold on Samardzija right now — maybe he belongs in the NL. Take Detroit at +140 on the runline.



♦Padres at Cubs (+100, TBA)

Interesting matchup here because the Cubs and Padres were the two final bidders for James Shields, with San Diego offering a bit more and the chance for Shields to play in his hometown. Of course Shields used to pitch in Tampa under current Cubs manager Joe Maddon, who loves Shields. The National League has been good to him as in two starts he has allowed just three earned runs and nine hits in 13 innings. Not many Cubs have faced him. Chris Coghlan is 5-for-13 with two doubles. By the way, because this is the final MLB story for this week, don’t be surprised if the Cubs call up Kris Bryant this weekend. That service-time deadline they wanted to wait for ends on Friday. It probably won’t be that day as it would be too obvious. But maybe for Saturday’s or Sunday’s game? Jason Hammel starts for the Cubs. His return to the NL also has thus far worked out well as Hammel won his season debut in Colorado, allowing three runs over six innings. The Padres’ Justin Upton knows him well, batting 8-for-29 with two homers and eight RBIs off Hammel.

Key trends: The over is 4-0 in the Padres’ past four on the road. The Cubs are 7-0 in Hammel’s past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The over has hit in the past six of those.

Early lean: Cubs and under total — which probably will be 7 when posted.



♦Reds at Cardinals (-120, 6.5)

Cincinnati was off Thursday after losing a series at Wrigley Field. The team has played without excellent catcher Devin Mesoraco since Sunday due to a hip injury and he’s not likely to play in this game. Maybe the injury explains his .095 average with no homers or RBIs. The Reds’ Johnny Cueto has been perhaps the best pitcher in the National League through his first two starts with an ERA of 0.64 and WHIP of 0.71 but he’s 0-1. Last time out he lost to these Cardinals despite allowing just one earned run and four hits over seven innings. Jon Jay is a career .444 hitter off him with three homers in 27 at-bats. Michael Wacha starts for the Cards. He was opposite Cueto in his last start and it was excellent, a great sign off his serious shoulder injury from last season. Wacha allowed one run and five hits over 6.1 innings.

Key trends: The Reds are 4-1 in Cueto’s past five series openers. The Cards are 10-2 in Wacha’s past 12 at home. The under is 5-1 in Cueto’s past six in this series.

Early lean: Cueto as an underdog? I’ll take that (he may not be by first pitch). Go under.



♦Rockies at Dodgers (-278, 6.5)

I didn’t pick Kershaw to win the NL Cy Young this season. I thought he’d be terrific as usual, but it’s pretty much impossible to be as good as he was in 2014. There was going to be some regression. I thought slight regression and it’s obviously too early to panic, but Kershaw has not looked dominant in his two starts. He took a no-decision in his opener but allowed three runs in six innings vs. San Diego, which is a lot for him. Then his second start was downright bad as Kershaw allowed six runs and 10 hits in a loss at Arizona. Last season, Kershaw was 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA in three starts against the Rockies. He had that no-hitter and near perfect game at Dodger Stadium against the Rockies on June 8, striking out 15. Troy Tulowitzki is decent off him with 12 hits in 52 at-bats, two homers and seven RBIs. Kyle Kendrick make his third start for the Rockies. He shut out the Brewers over seven innings in his first and was shelled for eight runs and three homers in five innings by the Cubs in his last. Juan Uribe is 5-for-8 career of Kendrick with a homer. Yasiel Puig (who is dealing with a hamstring injury and could sit again) is 5-for-9 with a double.

Key trends: The Rockies are 4-1 in their past five against a lefty. The under has hit in nine of Colorado’s past 11 road games against a southpaw. The over is 4-0 in Kershaw’s past four home starts. The Dodgers are 9-1 in Kershaw’s past 10 at home in this series.

Early lean: Take Colorado at +115 on the runline. Maybe something’s up with Kershaw.



♦Rangers at Mariners (-140, 7.5)

When I previewed every MLB team over the previous couple of months, the Mariners were my AL pennant team , but my one concern was that of closer Fernando Rodney. The guy can be lights out but also a gas can. Right now, it’s Rodney the gas can. In four appearances, he has a 1-1 record with two saves, a blown save, 16.20 ERA and 3.30 WHIP. Already manager Lloyd McClendon has had to give him a vote of confidence. Jonathan Papelbon to Seattle? Keep that in mind. The M’s start lefty J.A. Happ in this series opener. His lone start thus far was a no-decision vs. Oakland, allowing two runs and seven hits in 6.1 innings. Prince Fielder has faced him more than any Ranger, going 6-for-19 with three doubles and four RBIs. Yovani Gallardo (1-1, 5.59) goes for Texas. He has yet to last more than 5.2 innings in two starts but was solid last time out against Houston. Not many Mariners have seem him. Logan Morrison is an ugly 0-for-14 with five strikeouts. Seth Smith just 2-for-17.

Key trends: The Rangers are 0-4 in their past four against a lefty. The over is 7-1 in Seattle’s past eight Friday games. The under is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings.

Early lean: Mariners and over, but Nelson Cruz’s homer streak ends at five games.