Indian Cowboy
Brooklyn / Denver Over 231
There will be a lot of scoring here as note that the Nets are one of the better offensive teams in the league, which will surprise you. This is a team that is ranked 16th in the league in offense and 30th in the league in defense. This is a squad that beat Denver 116-111 at home in December earlier this year and the Nuggets will definitely want revenge. Remember, this is the same Nets team that dropped 125 points on Milwaukee, so given their offense and given that the Nuggets want revenge, it should yield an 'Over'. Note, the Nuggets have the 4th best offense, were held to less than 100 points in their last game against the Timberwolves and this was after scoring 132 points against the Warriors at home in a blowout win. Let's roll with the Over here as both teams have strong motivation for a great offensive output on Friday night.
Brooklyn / Denver Over 231
There will be a lot of scoring here as note that the Nets are one of the better offensive teams in the league, which will surprise you. This is a team that is ranked 16th in the league in offense and 30th in the league in defense. This is a squad that beat Denver 116-111 at home in December earlier this year and the Nuggets will definitely want revenge. Remember, this is the same Nets team that dropped 125 points on Milwaukee, so given their offense and given that the Nuggets want revenge, it should yield an 'Over'. Note, the Nuggets have the 4th best offense, were held to less than 100 points in their last game against the Timberwolves and this was after scoring 132 points against the Warriors at home in a blowout win. Let's roll with the Over here as both teams have strong motivation for a great offensive output on Friday night.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Oklahoma City
Pick: Los Angeles +10.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have never been shy about making moves to improve their team. They did so again by acquiring Taj Gibson, and Doug McDerrmott from Chicago. Amazingly, they now have just seven players left on the roster since their loss to Golden State in the playoffs less than a year ago. While the trade may help long term, in the present they are going to have a couple players that are going to need time to work into the system. That situation presents the Lakers with an opportunity, and a high price put on the Thunder. They are favored more tonight than they have been all season. The Lakers are 8-3 ATS on the season as a dog from +8.5 to +11, and should hang close in this one.
Los Angeles @ Oklahoma City
Pick: Los Angeles +10.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have never been shy about making moves to improve their team. They did so again by acquiring Taj Gibson, and Doug McDerrmott from Chicago. Amazingly, they now have just seven players left on the roster since their loss to Golden State in the playoffs less than a year ago. While the trade may help long term, in the present they are going to have a couple players that are going to need time to work into the system. That situation presents the Lakers with an opportunity, and a high price put on the Thunder. They are favored more tonight than they have been all season. The Lakers are 8-3 ATS on the season as a dog from +8.5 to +11, and should hang close in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
DAVIDSON +126 over Dayton
After three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, the Dayton Flyers are one of the most recognizable teams in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers have a 22-5 record and are #24 in RPI, which is a formula used by the NCAA to measure wins, losses and strength of schedule. It all looks impressive on paper but those numbers do nothing but inflate Dayton's value as a top “second-tier” program. The A10 sent three teams to The Big Dance last season (Dayton, VCU and St. Joe's) so it's not like the Flyers are going to have to run the table to a conference championship to stake their claim. Adding to their increased value is the fact that the Flyers have won nine of their last 10 games. Dayton is second in the A10 but they have a very high profile game with first place VCU on deck next Wednesday. This trip to Davidson might not be anything more than an inconvenience for the Flyers. While they aren't quite the “blue bloods” we talk about when handicapping NCAA basketball, these high profile mid-majors can actually be more overvalued than some of their “Power Five” conference brothers. The reason for that is because their opponents are often unknown to casual bettors.
Enter the Davidson Wildcats, a team who likely gets confused for “Dayton” more than they get recognized as their own program. The Wildcats are 14-12 and are in search of signature wins and a conference championship to guarantee their spot in The Main Event. Tonight is a big night on the Davidson campus, as the ESPN2 camera's will be in the John M. Belk Arena to broadcast this contest to the nation. National TV exposure is huge for even the biggest program, so when a mid-major like Davidson gets to host a high profile game like this, they are unlikely to be flat. It looks like the Wildcats are coming up against a buzz saw in Dayton but this line tells us a much different story. Davidson is being given just two points at home against one of the premier teams in the conference. The last time Davidson was a dog at home was just over a month ago when first place VCU strolled into JMB Arena and were beat outright as a 2½-point road favorite. That effort against VCU shows us that these Wildcats can not only hang with the A10's best, but they won’t be intimidated and they can beat them too. Therefore, that’s how we’ll play it. The home dog gets this outright call.
DAVIDSON +126 over Dayton
After three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, the Dayton Flyers are one of the most recognizable teams in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers have a 22-5 record and are #24 in RPI, which is a formula used by the NCAA to measure wins, losses and strength of schedule. It all looks impressive on paper but those numbers do nothing but inflate Dayton's value as a top “second-tier” program. The A10 sent three teams to The Big Dance last season (Dayton, VCU and St. Joe's) so it's not like the Flyers are going to have to run the table to a conference championship to stake their claim. Adding to their increased value is the fact that the Flyers have won nine of their last 10 games. Dayton is second in the A10 but they have a very high profile game with first place VCU on deck next Wednesday. This trip to Davidson might not be anything more than an inconvenience for the Flyers. While they aren't quite the “blue bloods” we talk about when handicapping NCAA basketball, these high profile mid-majors can actually be more overvalued than some of their “Power Five” conference brothers. The reason for that is because their opponents are often unknown to casual bettors.
Enter the Davidson Wildcats, a team who likely gets confused for “Dayton” more than they get recognized as their own program. The Wildcats are 14-12 and are in search of signature wins and a conference championship to guarantee their spot in The Main Event. Tonight is a big night on the Davidson campus, as the ESPN2 camera's will be in the John M. Belk Arena to broadcast this contest to the nation. National TV exposure is huge for even the biggest program, so when a mid-major like Davidson gets to host a high profile game like this, they are unlikely to be flat. It looks like the Wildcats are coming up against a buzz saw in Dayton but this line tells us a much different story. Davidson is being given just two points at home against one of the premier teams in the conference. The last time Davidson was a dog at home was just over a month ago when first place VCU strolled into JMB Arena and were beat outright as a 2½-point road favorite. That effort against VCU shows us that these Wildcats can not only hang with the A10's best, but they won’t be intimidated and they can beat them too. Therefore, that’s how we’ll play it. The home dog gets this outright call.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +185 over WASHINGTON
OT included. The price on the Oil here is a bit insane but it’s all because the Capitals are being advertised as the greatest show on ice. That greatest show on ice just lost back-to-back games to New York and Detroit and then got outshot by Philadelphia in a 4-1 victory. The Caps could also be in a very vulnerable spot here. You see, Washington just played three on the road and now they’ll come home for just one game before heading back out to play in Nashville tomorrow night at Coach Trotz’s old stomping grounds. Every player on that Capitals bench loves their coach and every player has to fugure that Trotz would love a win tomorrow night. It need not be said, as it is understood. Aside from all that, the Caps have a few key injuries for the first time all season, which means more minutes for some of their castoffs that nobody talks about, which includes Daniel Winnick, Brett Connolly, Justin Williams, Lars Eller and Taylor Chorney among others. We’re getting ready to fade the Caps in the playoffs again but now that they’ve cooled off, we’re just as happy to take back a price like this against them right now. Why wait?
Edmonton has one of the hottest goaltenders in the game going here and that alone makes taking back this price so appealing. Cam Talbot has posted save percentages of .912, .974, .920, 1.000, .926, .970 and .954 in seven of his past 11 games. The Oilers have really cut down on shots allowed too, which helps to keep their goals allowed lower than it’s been in years. Edmonton has won four of its last five, which includes victories over Chicago and Florida but the best news is that they’re scoring goals after a dry spell for a few weeks. At the end of the day, Washington’s Braden Holtby can steal a game on his own too but the difference is that Holtby’s team is a 2-1 favorite while Talbot’s team is taking back a massive price. Great price in a very good spot for the Oil.
Calgary +145 over FLORIDA
OT included. Florida remains a big threat to make the playoffs. With a win here, the Panthers will tie the Islanders and Bruins for the final Wild Card spot and pull a full five points ahead of the Flyers. The Panthers just returned home from a five game road trip, where they reeled off victories in every game. Upon returning, they lost to the Oilers, 4-3 but they were not flat at all. Very often, if a team isn’t flat in its first game back from a long trip, they are flat the second time out. Furthermore, said trip included three games on the West Coast, bookended by games in Nashville and St. Louis. A close look reveals that the Panthers were more lucky than good in those victories. Florida scored four times on its first 16 shot on Pekka Rinne before chasing him in a 7-4 victory. In San Jose, the Panthers scored six times on 22 shots and beat the Sharks 6-5 but got badly outshot, 36-22. The Panthers were outshot by Anaheim and badly outshot by Los Angeles before wrapping up their trip in St. Louis. The results of the road trip say “great efforts” but the performances do not, as the Panthers scored on a high percentage of their shots while getting some hot goaltending. They outplayed nobody. The Panthers aren’t likely to get hot goaltending from either one of their average goaltenders and they are not likely to score on a high percentage of their shots either, as that is simply not sustainable. Great underdog yes but as the chalk in this range, Florida has little appeal but once again the market sees wins while we see performances.
What a sweet win for the Flames last night in Tampa and there was nothing fluky about it. Calgary was rock solid from start to finish and even had a 3-1 lead with just over a minute to go. Calgary is playing outstanding defense right now and they’re scoring goals too. While the Panthers are getting all the accolades for getting back into the race, the Flames have been in it all year, they’re hot as hell and they moved four points ahead in the Wild Card race after last night’s win. Another victory here and the Flames would have a six-point lead, which has to be inspiring and hugely motivating too. Playoffs are now a true reality for Calgary and it is playing like it wants it. The Flames have won seven of their past 10 games. Two of their three losses over that span were by one goal with one of those going into OT. The other loss occurred when the Flames were coming off their bye week. Much of the market is also going to fade the Flames because of the “back-to-back” angle but winning increases energy and it also makes coming to the rink very enjoyable. It’s a short trip from Tampa to Sunrise and we’re suggesting that it’ll be the Flames and not the Panthers that bring most of the energy into this one.
Arizona +201 over DALLAS
OT included. The Dallas Stars have two chances of making the playoffs – slim and none and slim just left the building. Dallas now comes off their bye week a full 10 points out of a Wild Card spot but the more concerning issue is that they have to leapfrog OVER four teams to get there and that is not going to happen. Teams’ coming off their bye are now 4-16. However, one of those losses was Toronto’s in New York against the Rangers coming off their bye so that makes it a wash. Thus, teams’ coming off their byes are 3-15. The Stars have other issues too. They have underachieved all year due to disastrous goaltending. Soft goals deflate everyone and that deflation takes a toll over time when it happens so often. As the Stars get set to awaken from their late winter slumber party, rumors around Dallas are centered on trade talks. One or both goalies will be moved but chances are none will because nobody wants them. Dallas management is desperate to move its goalies so they may have to trade a strong asset and use one of their goaltenders as a throw in. In other words, if you want so-and-so, you have to take Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi. For 90% of the players in that Stars’ locker room, it’s an unnerving time of year because nobody is immune from being traded. Only the Avalanche and Jets have surrendered more goals than Dallas this season. The Stars also have just three wins in their past 10 games.
Arizona played last night in Chicago and lost 5-3 but Chicago is on fire and Arizona still scored three goals. The Coyotes are playing their best hockey of the year with eight wins in their past 13 games. In a highly entertaining game, the Coyotes skated with Chicago and came at them hard in the third period. Arizona actually out-attempted the Blackhawks 64-53 on the night but most of the surplus came in a score-affected third period after the damage had been done. Still, it shows the ‘Yotes are not quitting. It shows character and heart and if they bring that same intensity into this one, they’ll have a great chance to win. We also love that the Coyotes have a bunch of ex-Stars in their lineup. Dallas has beaten Arizona seven straight so motivation for the visitor should not be a problem. Lastly, these two met once earlier this year and Dallas won 3-2 but Lehtonen stopped 35 of 37 shots and that game occurred when Arizona was playing its worst hockey of the year. Things are a little different now.
Edmonton +185 over WASHINGTON
OT included. The price on the Oil here is a bit insane but it’s all because the Capitals are being advertised as the greatest show on ice. That greatest show on ice just lost back-to-back games to New York and Detroit and then got outshot by Philadelphia in a 4-1 victory. The Caps could also be in a very vulnerable spot here. You see, Washington just played three on the road and now they’ll come home for just one game before heading back out to play in Nashville tomorrow night at Coach Trotz’s old stomping grounds. Every player on that Capitals bench loves their coach and every player has to fugure that Trotz would love a win tomorrow night. It need not be said, as it is understood. Aside from all that, the Caps have a few key injuries for the first time all season, which means more minutes for some of their castoffs that nobody talks about, which includes Daniel Winnick, Brett Connolly, Justin Williams, Lars Eller and Taylor Chorney among others. We’re getting ready to fade the Caps in the playoffs again but now that they’ve cooled off, we’re just as happy to take back a price like this against them right now. Why wait?
Edmonton has one of the hottest goaltenders in the game going here and that alone makes taking back this price so appealing. Cam Talbot has posted save percentages of .912, .974, .920, 1.000, .926, .970 and .954 in seven of his past 11 games. The Oilers have really cut down on shots allowed too, which helps to keep their goals allowed lower than it’s been in years. Edmonton has won four of its last five, which includes victories over Chicago and Florida but the best news is that they’re scoring goals after a dry spell for a few weeks. At the end of the day, Washington’s Braden Holtby can steal a game on his own too but the difference is that Holtby’s team is a 2-1 favorite while Talbot’s team is taking back a massive price. Great price in a very good spot for the Oil.
Calgary +145 over FLORIDA
OT included. Florida remains a big threat to make the playoffs. With a win here, the Panthers will tie the Islanders and Bruins for the final Wild Card spot and pull a full five points ahead of the Flyers. The Panthers just returned home from a five game road trip, where they reeled off victories in every game. Upon returning, they lost to the Oilers, 4-3 but they were not flat at all. Very often, if a team isn’t flat in its first game back from a long trip, they are flat the second time out. Furthermore, said trip included three games on the West Coast, bookended by games in Nashville and St. Louis. A close look reveals that the Panthers were more lucky than good in those victories. Florida scored four times on its first 16 shot on Pekka Rinne before chasing him in a 7-4 victory. In San Jose, the Panthers scored six times on 22 shots and beat the Sharks 6-5 but got badly outshot, 36-22. The Panthers were outshot by Anaheim and badly outshot by Los Angeles before wrapping up their trip in St. Louis. The results of the road trip say “great efforts” but the performances do not, as the Panthers scored on a high percentage of their shots while getting some hot goaltending. They outplayed nobody. The Panthers aren’t likely to get hot goaltending from either one of their average goaltenders and they are not likely to score on a high percentage of their shots either, as that is simply not sustainable. Great underdog yes but as the chalk in this range, Florida has little appeal but once again the market sees wins while we see performances.
What a sweet win for the Flames last night in Tampa and there was nothing fluky about it. Calgary was rock solid from start to finish and even had a 3-1 lead with just over a minute to go. Calgary is playing outstanding defense right now and they’re scoring goals too. While the Panthers are getting all the accolades for getting back into the race, the Flames have been in it all year, they’re hot as hell and they moved four points ahead in the Wild Card race after last night’s win. Another victory here and the Flames would have a six-point lead, which has to be inspiring and hugely motivating too. Playoffs are now a true reality for Calgary and it is playing like it wants it. The Flames have won seven of their past 10 games. Two of their three losses over that span were by one goal with one of those going into OT. The other loss occurred when the Flames were coming off their bye week. Much of the market is also going to fade the Flames because of the “back-to-back” angle but winning increases energy and it also makes coming to the rink very enjoyable. It’s a short trip from Tampa to Sunrise and we’re suggesting that it’ll be the Flames and not the Panthers that bring most of the energy into this one.
Arizona +201 over DALLAS
OT included. The Dallas Stars have two chances of making the playoffs – slim and none and slim just left the building. Dallas now comes off their bye week a full 10 points out of a Wild Card spot but the more concerning issue is that they have to leapfrog OVER four teams to get there and that is not going to happen. Teams’ coming off their bye are now 4-16. However, one of those losses was Toronto’s in New York against the Rangers coming off their bye so that makes it a wash. Thus, teams’ coming off their byes are 3-15. The Stars have other issues too. They have underachieved all year due to disastrous goaltending. Soft goals deflate everyone and that deflation takes a toll over time when it happens so often. As the Stars get set to awaken from their late winter slumber party, rumors around Dallas are centered on trade talks. One or both goalies will be moved but chances are none will because nobody wants them. Dallas management is desperate to move its goalies so they may have to trade a strong asset and use one of their goaltenders as a throw in. In other words, if you want so-and-so, you have to take Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi. For 90% of the players in that Stars’ locker room, it’s an unnerving time of year because nobody is immune from being traded. Only the Avalanche and Jets have surrendered more goals than Dallas this season. The Stars also have just three wins in their past 10 games.
Arizona played last night in Chicago and lost 5-3 but Chicago is on fire and Arizona still scored three goals. The Coyotes are playing their best hockey of the year with eight wins in their past 13 games. In a highly entertaining game, the Coyotes skated with Chicago and came at them hard in the third period. Arizona actually out-attempted the Blackhawks 64-53 on the night but most of the surplus came in a score-affected third period after the damage had been done. Still, it shows the ‘Yotes are not quitting. It shows character and heart and if they bring that same intensity into this one, they’ll have a great chance to win. We also love that the Coyotes have a bunch of ex-Stars in their lineup. Dallas has beaten Arizona seven straight so motivation for the visitor should not be a problem. Lastly, these two met once earlier this year and Dallas won 3-2 but Lehtonen stopped 35 of 37 shots and that game occurred when Arizona was playing its worst hockey of the year. Things are a little different now.
Jimmy Boyd
Celtics vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -3½
I really like the value here with Toronto as a short home favorite against the Celtics. The Raptors went just 5-11 over their final 16 games before the All-Star break and I believe it has them way undervalued at home against Boston. Injuries played a big part in their struggles. Not only is Toronto healthy, but they will be adding in newly acquired Serge Ibaka, who will help them out on both sides of the ball.
The Raptors have taken 2 of the first 3 games against the Celtics this season, but did just recently lose at Boston 104-109. The Celtics needed a 32-19 4th quarter to secure the win and it came with Toronto playing without their best player in DeMar DeRozan. This is a statement game for the Raptors coming out of the break and I like their chances of delivering at home against a division rival. Raptors are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 against division opponents.
Celtics vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -3½
I really like the value here with Toronto as a short home favorite against the Celtics. The Raptors went just 5-11 over their final 16 games before the All-Star break and I believe it has them way undervalued at home against Boston. Injuries played a big part in their struggles. Not only is Toronto healthy, but they will be adding in newly acquired Serge Ibaka, who will help them out on both sides of the ball.
The Raptors have taken 2 of the first 3 games against the Celtics this season, but did just recently lose at Boston 104-109. The Celtics needed a 32-19 4th quarter to secure the win and it came with Toronto playing without their best player in DeMar DeRozan. This is a statement game for the Raptors coming out of the break and I like their chances of delivering at home against a division rival. Raptors are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 against division opponents.
Bruce Marshall
Pennsylvania -6
The talk of the Ivies (such as it is) has suddenly turned toward surging Penn, winner of four straight and looking like it might be able to land the final spot in the first-ever Ivy Tourney (which takes the top four finishers) in two weeks at the Palestra. The Quakers continue to get big production from frosh starts F AJ Brodeur & G Ryan Betley, the latter scoring 28 when Penn battered Cornell 82-63 in Philly on Feb. 12.
Pennsylvania -6
The talk of the Ivies (such as it is) has suddenly turned toward surging Penn, winner of four straight and looking like it might be able to land the final spot in the first-ever Ivy Tourney (which takes the top four finishers) in two weeks at the Palestra. The Quakers continue to get big production from frosh starts F AJ Brodeur & G Ryan Betley, the latter scoring 28 when Penn battered Cornell 82-63 in Philly on Feb. 12.
Brandon Lee
Jazz vs. Bucks
Play: Jazz -3
I know that Utah isn't a great road team, but I just feel there's too much value here with the Jazz laying a short number against the Bucks. Utah limped into the All-Star break, which I actually like, as it should have them motivated to come out strong in the first game back. The Jazz are also finally healthy with all their major pieces in play. If not for injuries I think this team would be viewed a lot different. I just see a big gap here in talent between them and the Bucks. Sure Milwaukee won 3 straight before the break, but it came against the Pacers, Pistons and Nets, which isn't anything to get excited about. Prior to that they had gone just 2-12 in their previous 14 games. Note that the Bucks are a mere 3-13 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 3 or more consecutive wins.
Jazz vs. Bucks
Play: Jazz -3
I know that Utah isn't a great road team, but I just feel there's too much value here with the Jazz laying a short number against the Bucks. Utah limped into the All-Star break, which I actually like, as it should have them motivated to come out strong in the first game back. The Jazz are also finally healthy with all their major pieces in play. If not for injuries I think this team would be viewed a lot different. I just see a big gap here in talent between them and the Bucks. Sure Milwaukee won 3 straight before the break, but it came against the Pacers, Pistons and Nets, which isn't anything to get excited about. Prior to that they had gone just 2-12 in their previous 14 games. Note that the Bucks are a mere 3-13 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 3 or more consecutive wins.
