Friday 10/31/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Santa Anita Park

RACE #7 - SANTA ANITA PARK - 3:05 PM PACIFIC POST


The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $1,000.000.00 PURSE

#1 GOLDENCENTS
#8 FED BIZ
#4 PANTS ON FIRE
#6 GOLDEN TICKET

#1 GOLDENCENTS is the overall speed leader in this stakes field racing at the mile distance on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight starts, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 2nd race back. #8 FED BIZ has produced "POWER RUNS" in five straight starts, hitting the board in four including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hoosier: Friday 10/31 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS


Best Bet: FATHER PATRICK (10th)

Spot Play: CAPITAL ACCOUNT (6th)


Race 1

(1) SUNDAY POKER defeated the majority of these last week and should perform an encore on Saturday. (3) PQ THREE is back in his comfort zone after a try versus open stakes company. (2) TINK AND TIGER rallied for second behind the top choice last time.

Race 2

(6) CARIBBEAN SHOOTER was used hard and understandably tired late against Sunday Poker, who came back to win at the $35K claiming level. His prior start was a win. (7) ENDEAVORS KING is clearly sharp and only needs a smooth trip to threaten. (9) ER ZACH ATTACK was in a bit too tough last time. Four-year-old has a chance. (2) LADY’S MAN has been consistent of late and looks like a must on your exotic tickets.

Race 3

(7) MASTERS CHAMPION hails from the powerful Ron Burke barn and is clearly in form. He draws inside of (8) MAJESTIC this week and that should help push this guy over the top. The latter wired the field at big odds last time; dangerous again. (1) FOX VALLEY NORMAN has inside speed; player.

Race 4

(4) SWEET TALKIN SATIN free falls in class on Saturday and has no excuses for failure. (6) ALLTHATGLTRSISGOLD & (7) FASHION DELIGHT are both coming off good efforts at this level and figure to be involved. (8) VIRGIL drops out of the claiming ranks were the competition was tough. This guy has dangerous speed.

Race 5

(8) STRAIGHT COMIC gets into a split condition race where he faces an easier group. He was a solid second last time from an outside post. (5) HAWK’S RED CHIEF closed from ninth to be second last time; better post now. (4) LINCOLNJAMES likes to win. Three-year-old has been first or second in seven of eight starts.

Race 6

(3) CAPITAL ACCOUNT finds the easiest spot he has seen since August. Jimmy Takter charge is no killer but he is capable of stepping up in soft spots like this one. (2) SOMESIZESOMESTYLE raced decently last time. He should be a major player against this group. (6) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE looks as capable as any of the others.

Race 7

(7) MYKINDACHIP was a strong second behind top older pacer Bettor’s Edge last time; no shame it that. He figures to be pointed down the road. (3) SHOOTER’S DREAM took plenty of air and held well most recently. (4) ROBIN I SCOOT clearly has form and should be forwardly placed.

Race 8

(6) SHAKE IT CERRY continues to roll along and look more impressive each week. She might get pressed a bit to make the front, but I believe she’ll be up to the task. (2) LIFETIME PUSUIT is at worse the second best filly in the race and possibly even better than the top choice. I’m a bit concerned she might be used hard to either secure position or brush to the front. (5) AVALICIOUS & (3) MARKET RALLY both had trouble with the smaller track at Yonkers and could appreciate this oval

Race 9

This should be a great race, especially if they mix it up on the engine. That said, (4) WEEPER finally draws well in one of these big-money events and seems likely to take charge. She does her best work when near the lead and should be no worse than second after the dust settles early. (1) GALLIE BYTHE BEACH finally hit her stride and lost some time with sickness. She missed four weeks prior to her last start, so her effort for third was commendable. (8) COLOR’S A VIRGIN gets another shot at Open company after winning the Jugette in September. If she wins again tonight, she’d be a Breeders Crown victory from divisional honors. (3) ALLSTAR RATING perked up versus lesser and could carry that form forward. (7) UFFIZI HANOVER is capable of a big mile and this track should suit her style.

Race 10

(1) FATHER PATRICK should win for fun. (6) E L TITAN was basically in-hand during her Galt victory. Ron Pierce in the bike could be a nice plus. (3) ROSE RUN PARKER is the king of Indiana. He gets a huge class test on Saturday. (4) ODDS ON AMETHYST is fast enough to play but very erratic.

Race 11

(8) FOILED AGAIN couldn’t have raced any better in defeat last week at Dayton. He seems to thrive off those types of tough trips and gets another vote of confidence from me despite three consecutive losses by a total of about a neck. (5) THINKING OUT LOUD surprised everyone in the American National and should be in line for a decent trip from the mid-pack post. (6) SWEET LOU reportedly trained well for this race. I’ll respect him with inclusion on my multi-race tickets, but I need to see a better effort before using him on top intra-race.

Race 12

(2) JK ENDOFANERA has been super lately. This is no easy spot, but I feel like he is a bit more handy than main competitor (4) ALWAYS B MIKI. The latter is freaky fast and has won three straight. With a win on Saturday and in the Breeders Crown, he could vault to the top of this division. (1) LIMELIGHT BEACH clearly has a shot but remains a small notch below the top two in my book.

Race 13

(7) CONTINUAL VICTORY ships in for Burke and picks up Gingras in the bike. She’s a classy mare that really should take care of business. (5) MONTENEGRO has plenty of form and finished second in this class last time. (4) MCFLIRTY followed the former and got the better of her most recently.

Race 14

(8) NITRO is another well classified Burke horse that appears to be in soft. (4) FREDDYSCOOTER is very sharp right now. (3) ALWAYS THE SUN returns to Hoosier in the conditioned ranks after facing tougher at Balmoral.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Friday 10/31 analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: AMERICAN IN PARIS

Spot Play: BADLANDS LOVE


Race 1

(6) CANT STOP has been knocking on the door in three of her four career starts and is due to earn her first lifetime win. (9) WOODMERE TRULYBLUE has a solid record this season and will debut for new trainer Corey Johnson. (10) APPLE PIE ANGEL has posted back-to-back wins for trainer/owner Raymond Larose. The daughter of American Ideal makes her way onto this circuit in her tenth career start.

Race 2

(7) BRITISH STEEL has posted back-to-back dominant wins and looks like the horse to beat again this week. (10) CASHONTHEROCS is the newest addition into the Tony O’Sullivan barn following a private purchase and will carry a four-race win streak coming into tonight’s contest. (2) FASHION GODDESS has been getting overlooked as of late, but I doubt that will be the case in this field.

Race 3

(6) AMERICAN IN PARIS will be the favorite in this dash when the gates unfold; very logical. (3) NAT A VIRGIN draws inside again this week for trainer Dustin Jones and the pacing miss has yet to miss the board with Jody Jamieson aboard. (2) BULLET POINT has over $500K worth of back class and draws inside for trainer/co-owner Blake Macintosh.

Race 4

(3) MAJESTE DUHARAS continues to offer a low price at post time, but was a winner last week in this class. (5) KABU was a recent winner at Hoosier Park and will now move into the Tony O’Sullivan barn. (1) MOONLIGHT ESPOIR draws the rail and has been a prime threat in this class in each of his last four starts.

Race 5

(1) BADLANDS LOVE draws the rail this week for trainer Corey Johnson and driver Jonathan Drury. (6) MAJOR HANGOVER has been knocking on the door as of late and always seems to be in the hunt turning for home. (8) BIG TREAT has been much better as of late for trainer/owner Junior West. The Mister Big miss will get the services again of Mike Saftic.

Race 6

(8) WEST COAST ROCKER has been a top threat since dropping into this class two starts back. (10) USEFUL HANOVER will need to overcome post 10, but shows tactical gate speed and as hit the board in three of his last four starts. (7) BETTER ART has a solid record this season coming into tonight’s contest and may offer a nice price as the four-year-old jumps in class and onto this circuit.

Race 7

(5) BEE FULLOF STEINAM drops down in class and gets driver James MacDonald in the bike this week. (10) RUB N TUG will need to overcome post 10, but utilized her gate speed last week from a post seven start to make her way to the front. (4) MISS MACHQUEEN certainly has the speed and drops down in class, which should benefit her nicely.

Race 8

(7) POCKET TRIP comes from a top trainer in Kelly Goodwin and the gelding has been a lead candidate in this class for many weeks. (8) DONTCHEATONMENOW debuted for the trainer Corey Johnson last week and the result was a winning effort. (6) EXEMPLAR was a winner in this class three starts back, but tends to race very inconsistently for trainer/driver Per Henriksen.

Race 9

(2) RUBIS PRESCOTT has many things to like about her coming into tonight’s contest. (8) WILDCAT HANNA has hit the board in each of her last two starts and just missed last week in this class. (3) RADAR CONTACT is a better mare than she’s been showing in my opinion. She draws nicely this week after a pair of outside post positions and gets Jack Moiseyev back aboard

Race 10

(5) BRUSHSTROKES was an impressive winner last week in this class and now she goes in for a $50K price tag to remain in the same class. (2) WILDCAT BEAUTY likely will offer a price when the gate unfolds. She draws inside and is fresh off a second-place finish last week in this class. (8) BET YA is a price horse in this dash as the sophomore will face older rivals for trainer Frank Colville.

Race 11

(8) SWINGING CAMI is long overdue for her first win of the season and the public thought she would get it last week while sent off as the heavy favorite. (4) CATALEA SEELSTER finished off her mile very strong in her latest and the pacing miss comes from the Tony Montini barn. (2) VAL DI NOTO finally draws inside after back-to-back 10-holes for trainer Gord Remmen.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 10/31 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 324 - 938 / $1689.60 BEST BETS: 54 - 77 / $175.70

Best Bet: SIMPLE SAVER N (7th)

Spot Play: EXPLOSIVE ACTION (5th)


Race 1

(2) TALBOTCREEK ARMANI went fast last week and was swallowed up by the trip-sitting (6) LIGHTNING STRIKE; maybe he turns the tables tonight. The latter debuted for Brainard in that race and exploded out of the pocket; obvious threat. (3) VODKA IS TERROR goes for another new barn and has been sharp.

Race 2

(6) SON OF NORDIC has speed and class in his favor; to the front. (2) BIG SKY STORM has done well with this type in the past and he looks like a closing threat. (1) SINA draws best and looks like a contender for the bottom of the ticket.

Race 3

(6) MUGSHOT JESS is better than he's been racing of late and he only needs a live trip in this suspect field. (7) SWEET JUSTICE has been knocking on the door of late but the outside post may be a problem. (2) ROYAL MALINDA should be close up throughout from this spot.

Race 4

(2) HACIENDA understandably flattened out late after a rough uncovered try last out; veteran returns to claimers and he could post a mild upset with a smoother trip. (4) FLYING INSTRUCTOR collapsed on the front end, then was scratched-sick; tough to gauge. (3) LUCKY MAN dropped to this level last week and got the job done.

Race 5

(8) EXPLOSIVE ACTION is working his way up the class ladder after just missing in a big eight-hole try last week; he should be a halfway decent price with another bad post. (5) NEIGHSAY HANOVER has class and could be leaving the gate. (2) AS YA'LL LIKE IT gets post relief and shows a win three back versus lesser.

Race 6

(5) COFFEE ADDICT has impressed me recently with a string of solid efforts; sharp sort could trip out from this midpack post. (6) SCANDALOUS HANOVER should be forwardly placed again with Sears. (4) LET'S GO HIGHER returns locally for trainer Rohr and we know what she's capable of.

Race 7

(1) SIMPLE SAVER N was the sacrificial lamb last week in the Open, trying to grind into a rated pace. It's a totally different story tonight from this spot. (4) ROCK N LOAD is a legit open-caliber mare who should go well here. (3) UF DRAGON'S QUEEN returns locally for Ford in fine form.

Race 8

(3) DANCEHALL MISTRESS arrives from Canada where she has been racing well with top stock; mare could be an immediate fit here. (4) DW'S NY YANK may have tailed off a touch but he still remains a threat. (8) MELADY'S MONET has been super in his last few but he's stuck all the way outside.

Race 9

(7) JOHNNY Z has been flat since the Drolet claim but he does drop in class and picks up Brennan; maybe. (3) BADGER QUINN scored right off the Fraley claim but he faces better tonight. (4) RICK'S SIGN took some sneaky money last out and benefitted off a hot pace.

Race 10

(3) ELIN drops in class, draws better and faces no standouts. (1) BRICKYARD TOOTS is always capable for Baynes given the right setup. (2) BROOKROAD KNIGHT drops, draws better and can resume winning ways.

Race 11

(2) TRIPLE LINDY is better than he showed last out, where he was shuffled and didn't do much; price should be ok from this spot. (7) THERAPUTIC was a solid front-end winner last out for Burke/Brennan. (1) SOME LIKE IT HOT has speed and the best draw.

Race 12

(6) STRINGS was been the victim of tough trips in her last couple; she can clearly take this with a smoother trip. (4) CLASSY LANE ROSE had a touch of belated pace last week and she can build off that effort. (3) STAR KEEPER has some class to her, having banked almost 400K and she returns off a nice try at Saratoga.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (6th) Winner's Legacy, 4-1
(7th) Scarly Charly, 3-1


Charles Town (2nd) First Chapter, 4-1
(5th) Master's Champion, 3-1


Churchill Downs (9th) Lunar Surge, 5-1
(10th) Wildwoodsgreatest, 4-1


Delta Downs (1st) Cherokee High, 5-1
(11th) Arctic Charm, 5-1


Finger Lakes (4th) My Kryptonite, 3-1
(5th) Audies Champ, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Minnaloushe, 5-1
(9th) Rogue Status, 9-2


Gulfstream Park West (1st) George Jet, 8-1
(10th) Aragvi, 5-1


Hawthorne (4th) Tactics Rap, 9-2
(9th) Purely Given, 9-2


Indiana Downs (4th) Seattle Mountain, 5-1
(7th) Native Best, 7-2


Laurel Park (1st) Miss the Magic, 4-1
(10th) Andrus Anthena, 3-1


Meadowlands (2nd) She's My Afleet, 3-1
(3rd) At Boolavogue, 5-1


Parx Racing (1st) Loveshackled, 9-2
(5th) Woody's Show, 10-1


Penn National (5th) Tribute, 6-1
(8th) Miss Andorra, 3-1


Remington Park (6th) De Score, 7-2
(7th) Save the Gold, 6-1


Retama Park (4th) Donna's Blue Bayou, 4-1
(7th) Countthemoney, 8-1


Santa Anita (1st) Mum's Truckee, 8-1
(10th) Day of Fury, 6-1


Thistledown (2nd) Pyrite Halo, 3-1
(7th) Coastal Rascal, 6-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Sweet Silica, 4-1
(6th) Quite Spectacular, 7-2


Woodbine (1st) Crystal Duck, 3-1
(9th) Maltese Knight, 10-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grand Salami - October

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.


NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result

10/8 4 22 20 UNDER
10/9 12 67.5 70 OVER
10/10 1 5.5 8 OVER
10/11 15 79.5 84 OVER
10/12 2 10 14 OVER
10/13 4 21.5 18 UNDER
10/14 9 50.5 60 OVER
10/15 3 16 19 OVER
10/16 7 39 42 OVER
10/17 6 32.5 18 UNDER
10/18 11 59.5 55 UNDER
10/19 4 21 15 UNDER
10/20 1 5.5 5 UNDER
10/21 10 55.5 59 OVER
10/22 3 16.5 18 OVER
10/23 8 43.5 48 OVER
10/24 5 27.5 35 OVER
10/25 11 58.5 59 OVER
10/26 5 27 24 UNDER
10/27 2 10.5 12 OVER
10/28 12 66 72 OVER
10/29 2 10.5 11 OVER
10/30 10 54.5 47 UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Predators (6-1) at Flames (5-4)

Date: October 31, 2014 9:00 PM EDT

Matt Cullen's return has provided another spark for the Nashville Predators, who are off to a solid start with first-year coach Peter Laviolette and a host of newcomers.

The Calgary Flames, meanwhile, are having trouble staying healthy.

Nashville looks to avenge an earlier loss the Flames, who complete a five-game homestand Friday night.

The Predators (6-1-2) fired longtime coach Barry Trotz after missing the playoffs the last two seasons and underwent a bit of an overhaul during the offseason. They brought in Laviolette as well as veterans Mike Ribeiro, James Neal and Derek Roy to combine with 21-year-old winger Filip Forsberg and former Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber.

Forsberg and Ribeiro are tied for the team lead with seven points while Neal tops the club with five goals. After Nashville suffered its first regulation defeat with a 3-0 loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday, Cullen assisted on one of Craig Smith's two goals in Wednesday's 4-1 win over Edmonton that kicked off a six-game road trip.

Ribeiro assisted on Weber's second-period goal.

"Our forwards can really skate and using their wide speed, they pushed their defense back and made some good plays," Weber said.

Cullen, who turns 38 on Sunday, missed the first eight games with an upper-body injury but meshed quickly with Smith's line.

"Our unit was able to create some turnovers and use our speed to make plays," Smith said. "Cullen getting back in the lineup, I thought he was outstanding. I didn't think he missed a stride."

The Predators were 18-2-4 last season when Cullen had a point, and he totaled six in two visits to Calgary.

Nashville, 2-0-1 on the road, is 4-0-2 in its last six with the Flames but lost the only meeting this season. Forsberg and Ribeiro scored, but Joe Colborne's shootout goal gave Calgary a 3-2 road victory Oct. 14.

Colborne, though, suffered an upper-body injury in Tuesday's 2-1 shootout loss to Montreal, and Matt Stajan went down with a knee injury.

Stajan will miss about six weeks while Colborne is day to day. The Flames (5-4-2) were already missing Mason Raymond, on injured reserve with a shoulder problem and considered week to week.

"You can't call a timeout in the NHL season when you have injuries," coach Bob Hartley said. "We have some options out there. We have 20 guys and I feel awful for (Stajan) and for (Colborne) and Mason Raymond a few days ago, but every team goes through this. There's no sense creating excuses or anything."

Calgary is 1-1-2 on its homestand, scoring only one goal in each defeat. Rookie Johnny Gaudreau, who assisted on Mark Giordano's goal Tuesday, still took plenty of positives from the latest performance - like outshooting the Canadiens 29-13 after the first period.

"The team was flying out there in the second and third periods," Gaudreau said. "That's the way we need to play the whole game. I think we should've come out with a win."

Jonas Hiller made 18 saves and is 3-0-1 with a 0.72 goals-against average over his last four starts. He's mainly split the net with Karri Ramo, but Hartley gave Hiller the nod again for this contest.

"I want to keep playing the way I am or even get better," Hiller said. "It might go the other way pretty quick. I've got to take the games I get and don't look too far ahead."

Nashville's Pekka Rinne is also off to a hot start at 6-1-1 with a 1.71 GAA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Two of top under play clash when Preds meet Flames
Justin Hartling

Though it is early in the NHL season, fans have become accustomed to seeing both the Nashville Predators and Calgary Flames play. The Preds and Flames have a combined 3-16-1 over/under record this season.

In the teams combined 20 games this season, they have scored two or fewer goals 11 times while holding opponents under three goals in 13 occasions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Report: Cavs, Varejao near extension
The Sports Xchange

The Cleveland Cavaliers and center Anderson Varejao are close to agreeing on a contract extension, ESPN.com reported Thursday.

The deal would be for three years at an estimated $30 million starting with the 2015-16 season. The Brazilian native is in the final year of a six-year, $42.5 million contract. He is making $9.7 million this season.

Earlier this week, the Cavs announced that Varejao would start Thursday night's opening game against the New York Knicks ahead of Tristan Thompson, who also could get a contract extension before Friday's deadline for first-round picks in the 2011 NBA Draft.

The 32-year-old Varejao has spent his entire career with the Cavs and was a teammate of LeBron James before James left for Miami. Last season, Varejao played in 65 games and averaged 8.4 points and 9.7 rebounds.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 10
By ASA

GAME OF THE WEEK

Ohio State (-28.5) vs. Illinois - 8:00 p.m. ET
Nothing came easy for the Buckeyes against Penn State in Happy Valley last week. Quarterback J.T. Barrett came back down to earth a bit after a torrid four game stretch (20 total TD, 1 INT) to complete just 12-of-19 passes for 74 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. Overall the Bucks notched just 293 total yards and 17 points in regulation. They gave up a 10-point second half lead as PSU scored a late field goal to tie it at 17-17 and send the game to overtime. Barrett scored two rushing touchdowns in overtime and the defense held to allow OSU to escape with a 31-24 victory. The Buckeyes 'D' limited the Nittany Lions to just 240 total yards, including just 16 rush yards on 31 carries (0.5 YPC). PSU QB Hackenberg completed 31-of-49 passes for a meager 224 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. Credit the Bucks for coming away with a win in Happy Valley in a hectic atmosphere when they didn't get stellar play from the offensive side. Barrett will need to clean up his act before OSU travels to Michigan State in two weeks in the conferences most important game of the season. Barrett and Co. get a chance to get right against the Illini this weekend. Illinois snapped a three-game losing streak with a quality win over Minnesota last week. They were outgained by 148 yards, but the defense made a few key plays - including a game-winning fumble return for TD with six minutes remaining - and QB Riley O'Toole played mistake-free football, leading the Illini to an upset. Illinois continues to struggle running the football. They rank second to last in the B1G in rush offense with just 106.5 YPG on 3.6 YPC. QB O'Toole is off of a nice performance, but he'll have tougher sledding against this OSU pass defense that has surrendered just eight passing touchdowns this year. He'll need some help from RB Ferguson and this rushing attack if the Illini want any chance of the upset. Ohio State is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings with Illinois, winning by an average of 19.3 PPG over that span. Last year OSU won 60-35 in Champaign behind 441 rush yards and five rush TD. Ohio State is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 games as a home favorite of 20 points or more. Illinois is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games.

The REST

Nebraska (-23.5) vs. Purdue - 3:30 p.m. ET
It was a one-man show in Nebraska's 42-24 win over Rutgers last week as RB Ameer Abdullah set the single-game school record for all-purpose yards with 341. Most of it came on the ground as he notched 225 rush yards and three scores on just 19 carries. Defensively the Huskers limited Rutgers' scoring chances early en route to a 35-10 3rd quarter lead, and it helped that the Scarlet Knights were without starting QB Gary Nova for much of the 2nd half, who exited the game with a leg injury. Rutgers managed just 348 yards and 15 first downs against this Nebraska defense. The Huskers can't afford to sleep on this Purdue squad that has shown great improvement in 2014 and is coming off of a bye. Quarterback Austin Appelby has revitalized this offense that was downright putrid in 2013. He has led Purdue to three straight games of 30+ points, two of which came against the stout defenses of Michigan State and Minnesota. The Boilers took an 11-point lead into halftime against the Gophers and led by nine points late in the 3rd quarter before Minny scored the final 10 points to notch the 39-38 victory two weeks ago. Appleby threw three touchdown passes and the Boilers rushed for 298 yards on 8.5 YPC. Purdue has now covered six of eight games this season, including four of five as the underdog. Despite the obvious improvement, it’ll be tough for the Boilers to become bowl eligible as they need to win three of the remaining four games against Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Indiana. But the arrow is definitely pointing up for Purdue as they'll try to play spoiler for some of the big boys in the B1G. Purdue has covered its last three as an underdog of 20 points or more, including twice this season. Nebraska is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a favorite of 20 points or more. The Huskers won last year's meeting in Purdue, 44-7, behind 251 rush yards and 5 rush TD.

Wisconsin (NL) at Rutgers - 12:00 p.m. ET
**Rutgers QB Nova remains questionable for this matchup and the line for this game has not yet been released.

The Badgers are off of an absolutely dominating performance against B1G newcomer Rutgers. They had +352 yards and +15 first downs in the 52-7 blowout win. QB Joel Stave appears to have rid himself of the yips as he was efficient in tossing for 155 yards and 2 TD and 0 INT. Melvin Gordon is on an absolute tear. He has averaged 198 rushing yards per game on 8.1 YPC with 15 TD over the last five games. It's a more impressive feat considering that opposing defenses have focused their gameplan on stopping him and they still can't slow him down. Wisconsin is now third nationally in rushing and have rushed for 250+ yards in six of seven games. One of the most impressive aspects of this team has been its defensive prowess. The Badgers are 1st in the B1G in scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed), 1st in total defense (270 YPG allowed), 1st in pass defense (49.4%, 163 YPG allowed), and 3rd in rush defense (106.7 YPG, 3.1 YPC allowed). With that dominating rushing attack and a statistically elite defense, the Badgers will be a tough out the rest of the way and could be the B1G West's representative in the title game. Rutgers' QB Gary Nova went down with a leg injury just before halftime in the loss to Nebraska. He remains questionable and if he can't go it'll be backup QB Laviano making the start. Laviano isn't nearly as good of a passer as Nova, but he brings a dual-threat capability to the position (5 rushed for 54 yards last week). Whoever starts at quarterback will have the difficult task of moving the football against this Wisconsin defense. Defensively the Scarlet Knights have allowed 616 rush yards (7.1 YPC) and 8 rush TD the last two weeks. That's not good news with Melvin Gordon coming to town. They aren't much better against the pass, surrendering a B1G-high 7.8 yards per completion on 60.8% completions. Wisconsin has failed to cover four straight road games and is just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 overall. Rutgers is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games following a SU loss, but 4-1 ATS in the last five vs. a team with a winning record.

Iowa (-4) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 p.m. ET
At 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, the Hawkeyes still control their own fate in the B1G West with games remaining against Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin; but there's still much to be fixed on this team after a troubling loss to Maryland. The good news is that the Hawks have had a bye week to fix their issues before the meat of their schedule truly hits. In its last game, Iowa had two quick touchdowns at Maryland and appeared to be in great position to pull off the upset – and then Maryland scored 38 of the next 45 points. Iowa QB Rudock threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, but he completed just 32-of-56 passes (57%) and the INT he threw was returned for a Maryland touchdown. Rudock has been forced to throw it more than he should because Iowa has trouble mustering any sort of rushing threat (90th in rush YPG). As is the case with a number of other Big Ten squads this year, a stout defense will only carry this Iowa team so far before the offense needs to pick up some slack. Northwestern comes to town this week needing a win of its own. The Wildcats are a streaky team as evidenced by a two-game losing streak to start the season, followed by a three-game winning streak, followed by the current two-game losing streak. Their most recent loss - two weeks ago - was to Nebraska. They were leading at halftime against the Huskers before Nebraska scored the final 24 points in the game. The Wildcats will need to figure out how to add a little punch to this offense moving forward. QB Siemian has just four TD passes this season and this rushing attack is ranked 105th nationally. They have yet to reach the 30-point mark in a game and have been held to 20 points or fewer in three consecutive league games. The defense is good enough to keep Northwestern competitive against most opponents, but that will go unnoticed as long as this offensive ineptitude continues. Iowa hosted last year's meeting and won by seven points in overtime, but Northwestern has enjoyed success when playing the Hawkeyes. They've won six of the last nine straight up, including three of five visiting Iowa City. Northwestern is 0-6 ATS in the last six games following a loss and just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 B1G games. Iowa has failed to cover five of the last six home games.

Penn State (-3) vs. Maryland - 12:00 p.m. ET
Penn State has now dropped three straight games since starting the season 4-0. Last week was a disheartening overtime loss at home to highly ranked Ohio State. The Nittany Lions fought back from a 10-point deficit to tie the game with nine seconds remaining, but ultimately fell short in overtime. It was another subpar day offensively for the Nittany Lions, who notched just 240 total yards. Granted, it was against a swarming OSU defense, but the offensive ineptitude is an unnerving trend for this team. PSU's offense has managed just 120 rush yards on 91 carries for a measly 1.3 YPC during its three-game losing streak. And Hackenberg has been unable to pick up the rushing game slack, as he's completing just 58% with 2 TD and 4 INT during the skid. Defensively you won't see many better units in the B1G. The Nittany Lions are 2nd in the conference in scoring defense and 1st in rush defense - surrendering just 17.4 PPG and 83.4 rush YPG on 2.4 YPC. PSU plays at home again on Saturday to host the Terrapins. There aren't too many positives to take away from Maryland's performance at Wisconsin. The Terps had just 175 total yards and 10 first downs in the 52-7 loss. They managed just 46 rush yards on 28 carries (1.6 YPC) and QB Brown was just 13-of-29 for 129 yards and 1 TD (that came with 52 seconds remaining). The defensive front was dominated by Wisconsin's offensive line as the Terps were gashed for 311 rush yards and five rush TD on 6.3 YPC. This was the kind of defeat that can affect a team for weeks and make coaches and players want to start from scratch. Maryland is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games following a SU loss but 4-1 ATS in the last five as a road 'dog of fewer than seven points.

Michigan (-7.5) vs. Indiana - 3:30 p.m. ET
The Wolverines had another hapless showing against Michigan State last week. The Wolves were outgained by 260 yards, had just 61 rush yards on 2.3 YPC, and turned the ball over three times. Michigan is now an FBS-worst -14 in turnover ratio, and QB Gardner is a huge reason for that. Gardner has just 3 TD and 10 INT in Michigan's last seven games. Gardner's inability to keep the ball in Michigan's possession are a big reason why the Wolverines are 118th in total offense and 113th in scoring offense - having not exceeding 24 points in five straight games. If Gardner still can't have a good day against an Indiana defense that has allowed 16 pass TD and just 5 INT, then it'll be time to officially move on from the senior QB. Indiana is off of a bye week after a blowout loss to Michigan State on October 18th. A season-ending injury to starting QB Sudfeld pushed freshman Zander Diamont under center against Michigan State for the first start of his career. It did not go well as he completed just 5-of-15 passes for 11 yards. Somehow, Indiana held a 17-14 lead in the second quarter before Michigan State scored the game’s final 42 points. Other than a stout offensive line that paves the way for star RB Tevin Coleman (132 yards on 15 carries against the Spartans), there isn’t much to like about the direction of this team. What once looked like a promising season in Indiana has now been replaced by concern over whether Indiana will win another game this season. RB Coleman has been a one-man wrecking crew, averaging 170 rush yards per game with 11 rush TD. It won't be easy to rush against this Michigan defensive front that allows just 109 rush YPG (16th nationally), but Indiana needs a strong rushing attack to aid its young QB if it wants any shot at the upset. Michigan has won 18 straight against the Hoosiers and is 10-0 SU at home over that span, winning by 18.7 PPG. That includes a 63-47 win at home over the Hoosiers last year. Indiana is just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 games as a road 'dog of 7 points or more.

Michigan State - Bye
The bye week came at a perfect time for the Spartans. They are off of an emotional victory over in-state rival Michigan and they have a huge showdown with OSU on deck. There aren't many negative things to say about the Spartans right now as they are playing extremely sound football right now. The offense - ranked 13th in yards per game and 5th in points per game - is humming behind QB Cook (17 TD, 5 INT) and RB Langford (100+ rush yards in five straight games). The run defense is surrendering just 95.4 YPG on 3.3 YPC and the pass defense is allowing opposing QB's to complete just 51 percent. They host OSU in the B1G regular season Game of the Year next week. Michigan State is just 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS in the last 10 meetings with OSU, but they won the most recent meeting in last year's B1G Championship, 34-24.

Minnesota - Bye
Many people expected Minnesota to falter in the conference at some point, but not a lot of pundits expected it to come against Illinois. Minnesota was able to pull off back-to-back close victories over Northwestern and Purdue, but couldn't do it a third straight time against Illinois last week. The lack of a competent passing attack really hurt the Gophers as QB Leidner completed just 12-of-30 passes. The Gophers actually held a three-point lead in the 4th quarter before Illinois returned a Leidner fumble for a TD. The good news is that Minnesota has a bye week to figure out its issues before the meat of its schedule hits (Iowa, OSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin). Next week is the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy against Iowa, which the Hawkeyes have won in back-to-back seasons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lookin' Ahead to Week 11
By Brian Edwards

There are four monster Week 11 games looming next weekend, with all of them impacting the race to garner invites to the inaugural College Football Playoff. Sportsbook.ag already has lines on these contests, so bettors get down on these games right now.

Check out College Football Odds for Week 11 through Week 15

Alabama at LSU

Let's start with Alabama at LSU in Baton Rouge. The offshore shop has 'Bama installed as a 7.5-point road favorite. After easily getting ahead of the number in a Week 9 win at Tennessee, the Crimson Tide allowed the Volunteers to rally and take the cash as 20-point home underdogs in a 34-20 loss.

Nick Saban's team has struggled badly in road 'chalk' roles recently, limping to a 1-7 spread record in its last eight such spots. Alabama is 0-3 versus the number in three road assignments this year, failing to cover at Ole Miss, at Arkansas and at Tennessee.

LSU has lost three in a row to 'Bama, including last year's 38-17 setback in Tuscaloosa in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Tide covered the spread as an 11-point home favorite.

When these teams collided in Baton Rouge in 2012 with first place in the SEC West at stake, 'Bama won a 21-17 decision thanks to a clutch drive in the final two minutes. With less than a minute remaining on third down inside LSU territory, A.J. McCarron hit T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass with LSU blitzing and the then-freshman running back took it to the house for the game-winning score. The Tigers took the money, however, as 8.5-point underdogs.

With last week's 10-7 win over Ole Miss as a three-point home underdog, LSU improved to 7-2 both straight up and against the spread. The Tigers have won three straight and four of its last five both SU and ATS. During Les Miles's 10-year tenure, they are now 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS as home 'dogs.

Both teams have an open date to get ready for Saturday's prime-time matchup under the lights at Tiger Stadium.

Ohio State at Michigan State

Sportsbook has Michigan State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite vs. Ohio State. The Spartans have won six in a row, while going 4-2 ATS, since suffering their only loss at Oregon back in Week 2. They have an open date to prep for the Buckeyes after spanking in-state rival Michigan by a 35-11 count in East Lansing.

With the addition of Maryland and Rutgers into the Big Ten, these teams reside in the same division (East) unlike last season. They collided in the Big Ten Championship Game last season, with Mark Dantonio's team handing Ohio St. its first loss of the Urban Meyer Era. Michigan St. won 34-24 as a five-point underdog.

In 2012, Ohio St. escaped Spartan Stadium with a 17-16 victory as a 2.5-point road underdog. That same season, the Buckeyes won 21-14 at Wisconsin as 2.5-point puppies. Those are the only two previous occasions in which Meyer's squad has been an underdog on his watch.

Michigan St. is 4-1 ATS as a home 'chalk' this year. The lone non-cover came in a 27-22 win over Nebraska when the Cornhuskers rallied from a 27-3 deficit in the final stanza to post the backdoor cover catching 6.5 points.

While Michigan St. has an open date this weekend, Ohio St. falls into a look-ahead situation at home vs. Illinois.

Baylor at Oklahoma

Sportsbook has Oklahoma favored by three vs. Baylor for their showdown in Norman. Both schools had open dates this past weekend and are back on the field Saturday. The Bears host Kansas and the Sooners venture to Ames for a battle against Iowa St.

Bob Stoops's squad will be in revenge mode after getting smashed 41-16 as a 16.5-point road underdog in Waco last year. Baylor has won two of the last three head-to-head meetings, covering the spread in all three of those contests.

OU, which has lost two of its last three games, is in the rare role of spoiler here. The Sooners saw its hopes of going to the College Football Playoff almost certainly dashed in their 31-30 home loss to Kansas St. on Oct. 18.

Baylor remains in the mix but undoubtedly has to win out. To do so, Art Briles's team will have to win in Norman for the first time ever.

Baylor hasn't been an underdog in 21 consecutive games if we can count this week's 'chalk' spot vs. KU. The Bears were last 'dogs in the 2012 Holiday Bowl when they crushed UCLA, 49-26. They are 7-1 ATS with four outright victories in their last eight games as 'dogs.

Notre Dame at Arizona State

Sportsbook has Arizona State tabbed as a two-point home favorite vs. Notre Dame. The Sun Devils will be looking to avenge a 37-34 loss to the Fighting Irish at Jerry World in Arlington last season.

Todd Graham's team has three remaining games against one-loss schools and controls its destiny to get to the Pac-12 Championship Game. In other words, ASU will find itself in the College Football Playoff if it wins the rest of its games.

The same can be said for Brian Kelly's team, which closes the regular season at Southern Cal. It also hosts Louisville in South Bend in a game that will become bigger if U of L can upset unbeaten Florida St. on Thursday night.

Notre Dame owns a 6-2 spread record in eight games as a road 'dog during Kelly's tenure. Meanwhile, ASU is 9-5 ATS as a home favorite on Graham's watch.

ASU has a huge game in Tempe this weekend against Utah, while Notre Dame is in Landover to face Navy.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams

The headliner of the ACC schedule will be the Thursday night contest, as defending national champ Florida State, again surrounding by off-the-field controversy, heads to Louisville for a date with the Cardinals. Papa John's Stadium is not an easy place to play, and if the Seminoles aren't on point, it could be a tough weekend. Outside of FSU, no one else has a legitimate shot at the four-team playoff, so FSU is the conference flag carrier.

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 5-3 2-2 5-3 2-5-1
Clemson 6-2 5-1 4-4 3-5
Duke 6-1 2-1 4-2-1 1-5
Florida State 7-0 4-0 1-6 3-4
Georgia Tech 6-2 3-2 4-4 5-3
Louisville 6-2 4-2 5-3 1-6-1
Miami (Fla.) 5-3 2-2 4-4 3-5
North Carolina 4-4 2-2 3-5 4-3
North Carolina State 4-4 0-4 4-4 3-4-1
Pittsburgh 4-4 2-2 3-4-1 3-4-1
Syracuse 3-5 1-3 4-4 2-5-1
Virginia 4-4 2-2 5-2-1 3-5
Virginia Tech 4-4 1-3 3-5 2-5
Wake Forest 2-6 0-5 4-4 1-7


Florida State at Louisville (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30p.m. ET)
The defending champs hit the road after last week's bye looking to get on track. While they have been winning, they're still just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games overall, 0-4 ATS in their past four home games and 2-7 ATS in their past nine road games against a team with a winning home record. As mentioned above, there is off-the-field controversy with RB Karlos Williams and an alleged domestic violence issue. The soap opera continues in Tallahassee. For Louisville, they are 4-1 ATS in the past five against a winning team, 16-5 ATS in their past 21 conference tilts dating back to their days in the AAC and Big East, and they're 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games overall. FSU will need to play at its best to come home with a victory.

Duke at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Duke takes it on the road to the Steel City looking to come home with another win and cover. The Blue Devils, already bowl eligible have posted a 10-2-1 ATS mark in the past 13 games on a grass surface, and they're 15-5-1 ATS in their past 21 games overall. In addition, Duke is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 road games, although they were humbled at Georgia Tech in their last road adventure. Duke is also 9-2 ATS in the past 11 conference tilts. For Pitt, they have struggled with a 1-4-1 ATS mark in the past six, and they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games at home. However, they are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games against a team with a winning road mark. These two teams played to an exciting 58-55 final last season in Durham, but this year things should be markedly different. The under is 6-0 in Duke's past six ACC games, and 5-1 in their past six overall while going 39-19-2 in their past 60 away from Wallace Wade. The under is 4-1 in Pitt's past five, and 3-1-1 in the past five against a team with a winning overall mark.

Boston College at Virginia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
Boston College travels to Blacksburg looking to become bowl eligible and pave the way toward securing an upper-tier bowl in the conference, while Virginia Tech is looking to simply remain alive for a postseason bid. This one will be tough for the Hokies, as Boston College is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 trips to Blacksburg, and 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall in this series. Neither team has been particularly impressive against the number recently, with BC going 4-11 ATS in their past 15 road tilts, but Virginia Tech going just 1-5 ATS in the past six overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four games at home. The Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning road record, however.

North Carolina at Miami (Fla.) (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
North Carolina put the skids on its losing streak, winning in dramatic fashion at Virginia last week. Miami finally ended their losing ways on the road at Virginia Tech, thumping the Hokies soundly in their own shack last Thursday. These are two teams feeling good about themselves finally, but only one team will continue that euphoria after Saturday's tilt. The Heels, for all of their troubles on the defensive side of the ball, are still 7-3 ATS in the past 10 conference games, while the Canes are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 ACC battles, and just 5-11 ATS in the past 16 games overall. However, Miami is 11-5 ATS in their past 16 at home, while UNC is 5-12 ATS in their past 17 road games against a team with a winning home record.

North Carolina State at Syracuse (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)
Syracuse returns from a respectable showing, especially defensively, at Clemson last week, albeit a loss. North Carolina State has been difficult to figure, as they played Florida State tight, but then were bombed by Clemson and Boston College. N.C. State is just 2-6 ATS in the past eight ACC games, and 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games overall. They're also an abysmal 4-10-1 ATS in the past 15 away from Raleigh. 'Cuse can hold their heads high after going 4-1 ATS in the past five games, although they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five. However, that cover came last time out at home against Florida State. The better play could be the under, which has hit in six of the past seven road games for the Wolfpack against a team with a losing home record. The under is also 3-1-1 in their past five overall. The under is 5-1-1 in Syracuse's past seven, and 6-2 in their past eight following a straight-up loss.

Virginia at Georgia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
Virginia started the season as cover kings, but they have been slipping lately, failing to cover in each of the past two against Duke on the road and UNC at home. In fact, they're just 6-13-2 ATS in their past 21 conference games, and 5-11-1 ATS in their past 17 following an ATS loss. Georgia Tech has been a little sketchy lately, too, starting out 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, but going just 1-2 SU/ATS over the past three. Their offense has been brilliant, averaging 49.5 points per game over the past two, but defense has been an issue all season, with the Yellow Jackets allowing 24 or more points in five of the past six.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams

The Pac-12 rolls on into November, and there are still plenty of teams who can stake a claim to a division title and spot in the league championship game. Some dreams will be dashed this weekend, depending upon how things break. The clear marquee game of the schedule will be in Tempe, where Utah and Arizona State battle for supremacy down south. Who would have ever though that would be the headliner game of any weekend this season?


2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 6-1 3-1 3-4 3-4
Arizona State 6-1 4-1 4-3 3-4
California 4-4 2-4 5-3 5-3
Colorado 2-6 0-5 4-4 5-3
Oregon 7-1 4-1 4-4 4-3-1
Oregon State 4-3 1-3 2-5 3-3-1
Southern California 5-3 4-2 5-3 4-4
Stanford 5-3 3-2 4-4 1-6
UCLA 6-2 4-2 1-7 3-4-1
Utah 6-1 3-1 6-1 2-4-1
Washington 5-3 1-3 3-5 2-6
Washington State 2-6 1-4 3-5 4-4


Washington at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Washington heads to Boulder looking to score another win and become bowl eligible, while Colorado hopes to avoid another narrow, heartbreaking loss. The Huskies were dropped at home in a soggy game against Arizona State last weekend, their second straight loss in a row. However, they are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a losing overall record. They haven't fared well away from Seattle, however, going just 6-13 ATS in their past 19 road games. Colorado nearly pulled off a much-needed win last week against UCLA, but faltered in overtime. It was their second OT battle in four weeks, and both games ended in similar disappointment. Colorado is a respectable 4-2 ATS over its past six games, and the over has connected in four straight for the Buffs.

Southern California at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Trojans head to the Palouse looking to take out some aggressions after losing a heartbreaker at Rice-Eccles last weekend in Utah. USC is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to Pullman, and the road team has covered each of the past four meetings in this series, including Washington State's stunning 10-7 win at the Coliseum last year. Despite that low-scoring game, the over is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings in this series, including a perfect 7-0 in the past seven at Washington State. The over is 34-16-1 in the past 51 for the Cougs at home, while the over is 4-0 in USC's past four road games against a team with a losing home record.

Stanford at Oregon (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)
This game has lost some of its luster due to Stanford's rare three-loss season to date, but it is still very important. Plus, Oregon can ill-afford to look past the defensive-minded Cardinal. The Cardinal finally saw the over cash for the first time in seven games last weekend. Now, they need to work on covering. They're 0-4 ATS in their past four road games, and just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. However, Stanford is 26-12-1 ATS in their past 39 Pac-12 battles. However, that type of dominance seems so long ago given the difficulties of the current season. Oregon is just 2-5 ATS in its past seven at Autzen Stadium, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. The dog has covered five of the past six in this series.

California at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)
After an impressive start to the season which saw California as a division leader briefly, the Bears have fallen on hard times. Cal has dropped three straight, and they're just 1-2 ATS during the span. Oregon State has had an equally rough go of it lately, starting out 3-0 SU, but going just 1-3 SU/ATS over the past four outings, including a 38-14 whitewashing from Stanford in Palo Alto last weekend. Cal is just 7-18 ATS in the past 25 overall, and 5-13 ATS in their past 18 against a team with a winning overall mark. In addition, Cal is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven with Oregon State, and the favorite has connected in four straight in the series.
Arizona at UCLA (ESPN, 13:00 p.m.)
This is essentially an elimination game for the loser in the Pac-12 South Division, especially for UCLA. Neither team has been particularly attractive against the number lately, with Arizona going 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 0-4 ATS in their past four on grass. Their lone cover against a winning team was that upset at Oregon as a 21-point favorite three weeks ago. UCLA has posted an 0-4 ATS mark in their past four Pac-12 games, and they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five home games, while managing only one cover in five tries against a team with a winning record. The favorite has cashed in six of the past seven in this series, and the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. However, the home team is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings.

Utah at Arizona State (ESPN, 11:00 p.m.)
The game of the weekend, and who could have forseen this at the start of the season, will be the late-night game. Utah kept their conference title hopes alive with a stunning last-season win over USC last weekend. Arizona State fought through the raindrops to record an impressive road win at Washington last week. The Utes are on fire against the number, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven overall, including a 6-0 ATS mark in their past six against a team with an overall winning mark. Arizona State started out 1-3 ATS in their first four, but they're 3-0 ATS in the past three games. Their 62-27 home loss to UCLA is looking like quite the anomaly, but given the fact Utah won at UCLA, the Utes look mighty attractive getting almost a touchdown in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 10
By Kevin Rogers

Heading into the first Saturday of November, there are a handful of teams looking to avoid getting routed in conference action. Florida is fresh off the bye week, taking on rival Georgia in Jacksonville, while Kansas is a heavy underdog against an explosive Baylor squad. We’ll start with a battle of two military schools for an early kickoff.

Army (+3 ½) vs. Air Force – 11:30 AM EST

Since outlasting Buffalo in the season opener, Army has failed to cover in five of the past six games. The Black Knights have allowed at least 35 points five times, while getting blown out as a short road favorite against previously winless Kent two weeks ago. The only positive for Army is its running game, which averages 319 yards/game, as the Black Knights have outgained six of their seven opponents on the ground.

Air Force has won four of five, but failed to cover in a 35-31 home victory against New Mexico as seven-point favorites in its previous contest. The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in all three road games, while their lone victory on the highway came against Georgia State, who has won just one game this season. Air Force has dominated this series over the years, grabbing seven of the past eight meetings with Army.

Iowa State (+16 ½) vs. Oklahoma – 12:00 PM EST

The Cyclones are just 2-5 on the season, but ISU has managed a 3-1-1 ATS record as a double-digit underdog. Iowa State’s defense has been ripped up, giving up at least 30 points in six of seven games, including a 48-spot to Texas two weeks ago in a three-point road loss. It will be tough sledding for the ‘Clones on Saturday, as ISU has scored more than 10 points against Oklahoma just once in the past nine meetings, while losing all nine of those games.

The Sooners have dropped two of three since a 4-0 start, pretty much ruining any chance at making the college football playoff this season. Oklahoma has failed to cover three straight games, while coming off a 31-30 home setback to Kansas State two weeks ago. Bob Stoops’ team owns a 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS record off a defeat since 2009, while amazingly facing Iowa State for the fourth straight season when coming off a loss in the previous game.

Florida (+13) vs. Georgia – 3:30 PM EST

When these two SEC East rivals hook up in Jacksonville annually, the records are thrown out. It’s hard to ignore Florida’s 3-3 mark, as this Gators’ team has lost 10 of its past 13 games dating back to last season. UF is fresh off an embarrassing homecoming loss to Missouri two weeks ago at the Swamp, 42-13, the third loss in the past four games. Since trouncing Eastern Michigan in the opener, the Gators have compiled a 1-4 ATS record, which includes a one-point win in a pick-em spot at Tennessee.

From 2005 through 2010, the Gators took five of six matchups from Georgia. However, the Bulldogs have bounced back the last three seasons with three straight win over Florida. UGA is riding a five-game winning streak since getting stunned at South Carolina, while topping the 34-point mark in all five SEC games this season.

Kansas (+36) at Baylor – 4:00 PM EST

The Jayhawks have been more competitive since the firing of head coach Charlie Weis, covering two of the past three games. Kansas owns a 2-5 record, but lost by 13 at Texas Tech and by 10 to Oklahoma State, as the Jayhawks look to snap a four-game skid to Baylor. The Bears have scored at least 41 points in three of the past four wins over KU, including a 59-14 blowout in Lawrence last season.

Baylor will be in full angry mode after falling at West Virginia two weeks ago, 41-27, while committing 18 penalties. The Bears are playing just their second home game since early September, as Baylor is 4-0-1 ATS in five games as a double-digit favorite this season. Baylor has dominated opponents the last few seasons when laying at least 10 points in Waco, going 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in this role.

Hawaii (+3) vs. Utah State – 11:00 PM EST

Hawaii’s offense has been anemic all season long, scoring 18 points or less in five of eight games. However, the Warriors have covered four of five home contests, including in losses as an underdog to Washington and Oregon State early in the season. Hawaii hasn’t been as fortunate in the ‘dog role of late, posting an 0-3-1 ATS record when receiving points, while losing at home last week to Nevada as three-point ‘dogs.

Utah State has lost three games this season, while winning back-to-back games off each defeat. The Aggies try to keep that trend alive this week, after losing at Colorado State two weeks ago then beating UNLV last Saturday. The Aggies are favored on the road for the first time this season, while putting together a 1-3 ATS record as a favorite. Since 2012, Utah State owns an impressive 5-1 ATS record in the road favorite role, but has lost three of the past four visits to Honolulu.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall

Friday, October 31

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TULSA at MEMPHIS
Tulsa 2-5 vs. line TY, 5-14 vs. spread since 2013. Tigers have covered 8 of last 12 since late LY.

Memphis, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at TULANE
Wave covers last 2 TY, now 2-1 vs. line in new stadium, now 12-6 vs. spread last 18 as host (counts LY bowl game and Superdome games 2012-13).

Tulane, based on team trends.



Saturday, November 1

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY (at FedEx Field, Landover, Md)
Navy has covered 3 of last 5 meetings and 12 of last 20 vs. Irish. Mids 18-9 as dog for Niumatalolo since 2009.

Navy, based on team trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH
Beamer on 15-32-1 spread run since late 2010. BC has covered last three meetings, and Eagles have covered 4 of last 6 this season.

BC, based on team and series trends.


EAST CAROLINA at TEMPLE
ECU no covers last three after 4-0 break vs. gate vs. spread. Pirates 1-5 last six as visiting chalk. But Owls no covers last three TY after 11-5 spread run prior.

Slight to Temple, based on team trends.


UCF at UCONN
Diaco 1-6 vs. lint TY, though Huskies had been 8-1 as Rentsch dog 2011-13. UCF only 1-5 last six as chalk away from Orlando.

Slight to UConn, base don extended trends.


WISCONSIN at RUTGERS
Wiscy 3-7 vs. line last 10 since late 2013. 'Gers 14-6 last 20 as dog (8-4 for Flood since 2012).

Rutgers, based on recent trends.


NC STATE at SYRACUSE
Pack a bit back and forth vs. line TY but still no SU ACC wins, now 0-12 SU in league play for Doeren. But Pack is 2-1 vs. line away TY and gets points here. Cuse only 3-5 vs. spread last 8 at Carrier Dome.

NC State, based on recent trends.


DUKE at PITTSBURGH
Cutcliffe 5-2 vs. line TY, 15-5-1 since 2013, 7-2-1 last 10 away. Lost high-scoring 58-55 shootout vs. Pitt LY.

Duke, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at PENN STATE
These teams used to regularly meet long ago, now reunited in an interesting twist to Big Ten expansion. James Franklin 4-3 vs. line in 2014 after 25-14 spread mark previous three years at Vandy. Terps 7-4 as visiting dog since 2012.

Slight to PSU, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLORIDA
Heels closed 7-1 vs. line LY after dropping first five vs. number and are in same pattern this season, now three covers in a row after five spread Ls to open season! Visiting dog has covered this game the past two years. Canes have covered last three at home after dropping previous four vs. spread as host.

UNC, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at APPALACHIAN STATE
GSU 7-1 vs. line on road since 2013, also 12-3 last 16 as DD dog.

GSU, based on team trends.


AIR FORCE at ARMY
Falcs reclaim Commander in Chief's Trophy with win here. Falcs have won and covered 7 of last 8 trips to Michie, though did lose last visit in 2012. Force 13-4 vs. spread last 17 vs. West Point. Black Knights 7-4 last 11 as Michie dog but 0-1 in role TY.

Air Force, based on series trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN
CMU has won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Enos 4-0 as visiting chalk since 2012 (0-0 TY).

CMU, based on team and series trends.


NORTHWESTERN at IOWA
Home team has won and covered last four meetings. After brief rally, NU has lost and failed to cover last two, putting pat Fitz 2-5 vs. line TY and 3-13 last 16 since early 2013. NU 12-4 as visiting dog 2008-12 but 2-3 in role since. Ferentz, however, only 1-3 vs. line at Iowa City TY and 5-11 as home chalk since 2012.

Slight to NU, based on extended trends.


TEXAS at TEXAS TECH
Horns have won SU last five meetings. TT 1-5-1 last seven vs. spread at home.

Texas, based on team and series trends.


PURDUE at NEBRASKA
Purdue has quietly surged, covering last three and five of last six this season. Boilermakers have also covered last four away from Ross-Ade. Bo Pelini 6-2 vs. line TY and 12-7 as Lincoln chalk since 2012 (3-1 TY, but 3-4 LY).

Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.


KANSAS at BAYLOR
Jayhawks unbeaten vs. line in three since Weis dismissed, but have been crushed last two years by Baylor. Briles 19-3 vs. spread as host since 2011.

Baylor, based on team trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at MIAMI-OHIO
Phenom WMU now 8-0 vs. line in 2014. Miami 5-9-1 last 14 vs. points at Yager.

WMU, based on team trends.


AUBURN at OLE MISS
Auburn has won and covered 4 of last 5 vs. Ole Miss, but Hugh Freeze now 7-1 SU and vs. line TY and 33-12-1 vs. spread since 2011. Malzahn 1-4 vs. line last 5 TY.

Ole Miss, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY at MISSOURI
Tigers have won and covered in similar comfy fashion past two years. Pinkel, however, just 1-4 vs. line as host TY.

Slight to UK, based on recent trends.


ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE
MSU 6-1 vs. line TY and 11-1 last 12 since late 2013. Mullen has won and covered last two years vs. Arkansas. Hogs 6-1 last 7 vs. line TY

MSU, based on team and recent series trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at LA TECH
WKU 2-4 vs. line last five TY, La Tech 5-2 vs. spread in 2014.

LT, based on recent trends.


UL-MONROE at TEXAS A&M
Ags having a rough go with four straight spread Ls and 1-5 vs. line last six TY. A&M on 4-12 spread slide since mid 2013, only 4-4 vs. line. But ULM only 0-5-1 vs. spread last five TY. Warhawks 1-4-1 last six as DD dog.

Slight to ULM, based on extended A&M spread woes.


BYU at MTSU
Cougs no SU wins last four TY and no covers last six TY. Though Stockstill 3-1 vs. line at Johnny Floyd Stadium TY and covers last three as home dog.

MTSU, based on recent trends.


TENNESSEE at SOUTH CAROLINA
Revenge for Spurrier after loss at Knoxville LY but Cocks only 2-6 vs. spread in 2014. Vols have covered last two meetings.

Slight to UT, based on recent SC struggles.


FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (at Jacksonville)
Richt on march with big wins and covers last two, both away from Athens. Richt 2-0-1 vs. line last three vs. Muschamp. Muschamp 2-4 vs. line TY, ,6-17-1 last 24 on board since mid 2012, 13-26-1 last 40 since early 2011.

Georgia, based on team trends.


USC at WASHINGTON STATE
Leach beat SC 10-7 LY at Coliseum and also covered last two years vs. U-Dub and Sark. Trojans 3-12 vs. line last 15 as visitor (1-3 TY).

WSU, based on team trends.


STANFORD at OREGON
Cards have won and covered last two vs. Ducks. Tree 5-0-1 as dog since 2011 for Shaw, though no covers last four away from Palo Alto. Ducks have now won and covered last three in 2012 after 1-10 reg.-season spread run.

Stanford, based on team and recent series trends.


OKLAHOMA at IOWA STATE
Stoops no covers last three in 2014 and just 2-4 last six as chalk away from Norman. OU has covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. ISU and Cyclones haven't won SU in series since 1990! Prior to that it was 1961! ISU quietly surging with 5-1-1 spread mark last six this season and 4-0-1 as dog.

ISU, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at KANSAS STATE
Home team has won SU last three meetings but Bill Snyder has covered all of those three. Snyder 14-6 vs. spread last 19 at Manhattan and 31-14-1 overall vs. line since 2011. Gundy 0-4-1 vs. line last five TY.

K-State, based on Bill Snyder trends.


INDIANA at MICHIGAN
Wolverines also 6-5 as home chalk since 2013 (2-3 TY), and Hoke 15-16-1 last 32 on board. Hoosiers 2-7 vs. line last nine as visitor (1-2 TY).

Michigan, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA at GEORGIA TECH
Cavs no covers last 3 TY after five straight Ws vs. line to open campaign. Home team 3-0-1 vs. line last four in series. GT just 1-3 vs. line as host TY after 9-4 home chalk mark past two seasons.

Slight GT, based on series trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at IDAHO
Ark State was 5-1 vs. line prior to ULL loss. Red Wolves 7-3 last 10 as visiting chalk. Idaho has covered last three TY and is 5-2 vs. line in 2014, though only 1-2 vs. spread at Kibbie TY and now 2-11 vs. spread as host since 2012.

Ark State, based on team trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-LAFAYETTE
Cajuns might be turned around with back-to-back impressive wins and covers after dropping four straight vs. line. But road warrior USA has won and covered all three as visitor this season and is 7-2 vs. spread on road since 2013.

USA, based on Jag road marks.


ODU at VANDERBILT
Vandy back to the Bobby Johnson-type teams TY, poor chalk (0-3 at home in role) after succeeding under James Franklin past three years.

ODU, based on recent Vandy home chalk woes.


RICE at FIU
Rice on 19-9 spread uptick since mid 2012 and has covered last 4 and 5 of 6 this season. FIU improved and had covered 6 of 7 prior to Marshall loss. Rice 8-3 vs. spread last 11 as visitor.

Rice, based on extended trends.


WASHINGTON at COLORADO
Mike M 4-0 vs. line at Boulder TY and 8-2 vs. spread at Folsom Field since arriving at CU in 2013. Though Huskies have won and covered big last three meetings.

CU, based on home marks.


CAL at OREGON STATE
Dykes 3-0 vs. line on road (all as dog) this season. Beavs just 2-7 vs. spread last nine at Corvallis, though Riley has won and covered last two and 6 of last 7 vs. Bears.

Cal, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA at UCLA
Mora has won and covered last two vs. Rodriguez (it was 66-10 in 2012) but Bruins only 1-7 vs. spread in 2014 and no covers in three tries at home. Bruins also no covers last four at Rose Bowl since late 2013.

Arizona, based on recent UCLA woes.


COLORADO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE
SJSU has won and covered the last three years vs. CSU but Rams are on 18-7 spread uptick for McElwain, 9-2 vs. line last 11 away from Fort Collins.

Slight to SJSU, based on series trends.


UTAH at ARIZONA STATE
ASU 3-0 SU and 2-1 vs. line last three years vs. Utes, and Graham 6-3 as Pac-12 home chalk since 2012. Utes 3-0 vs. line away this season.

Slight to ASU, based on series trends.


TCU at WEST VIRGINIA
These teams have played OT games the past two seasons. Frogs are 7-0 vs. line in 2014 (2-0 away). Holgorsen 1-1 as home dog TY and 2-3 in role since last season.

Slight to TCU, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at SOUTH FLORIDA
Cougs 2-0 vs. line away TY and have covered eight straight as visitor dating to late 2012. USF HC Taggart 19-8 as dog (WKU & USF) since 2011.

UH, based on team trends.


UAB at FAU
FAU has won and covered last three meetings (2010-121-13). Owls now 3-0 vs. line at Boca Raton TY and 6-1 last seven vs. line as host. UAB has dropped 4 of last 6 vs. line.

FAU, based on team and series trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP
Improved USM three straight covers on road. UTEP 3-0 vs. line at Sun Bowl TY.

Slight to USM, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO at UNLV
Hauck 3-1 SU and vs. line vs. Lobos. But Hauck just 5-8 as chalk with Rebs. Road team is 7-0 vs. line in UNM games TY, and Lobos 6-1 last seven as road dog.

UNM, based on recent trends.


TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE
Aggies 3-0 vs. line in Las Cruces TY and have covered five straight at home (and last four as home dog) since late 2013. Franchione 2-5 last seven as chalk.

NMSU, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at OHIO STATE
Illini no SU wins over Bucks since 2007. Illini covered as road dog at Wiscy but was 1-9 in role for Beckman in ten previous tries (since 2012).

OSU, based on recent trends.


WYOMING at FRESNO STATE
FSU crushed Wyo past two years. Wyo on 4-12 spread slide since early 2013.

FSU, based on team and series trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at NEVADA
Aztecs have won and covered wild games the past two years, both in OT. Rocky Long 7-2 last nine vs. line on MW road. Pack 3-7 vs. line last 9 as MW host.

Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at HAWAII
Home team 7-1 vs. line in Hawaii games TY. Chow 9-4 vs. spread last 13 in Honolulu.

Slight to UH, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football roundup: Georgia appeals Gurley suspension
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The NCAA announced Wednesday that Georgia Bulldogs running back Todd Gurley must sit out two more games for accepting more than $3,000 in cash from multiple individuals for autographed memorabilia.

Georgia said it will appeal the decision "immediately."

According to the NCAA, Gurley received the cash for signing memorabilia and other items over two years and must repay a portion of the money he received to a charity of his choice. He also must complete 40 hours of community service as conditions of his reinstatement.

Gurley has already missed two games for the No. 11 Bulldogs (6-1, 4-1 SEC). Unless he wins his appeal, Gurley will miss Saturday's game against the Florida Gators in Jacksonville and next week's game at Kentucky. He would be eligible to return Nov. 15 against Auburn.


---Utah senior wide receiver Dres Anderson will miss the remainder of the 2014 season because of a knee injury, according to the school.

Anderson is currently ranked as the No. 14 wide receiver prospect for the 2015 NFL Draft by NFLDraftScout.com and No. 90 prospect overall. He was considered a second day draft pick, but the severity of his injury could push him out of the top 100.

Anderson, a team captain, apparently was injured in the fourth quarter of last week's 24-21 win over USC.


---When you're No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings and have only one game left against another ranked team, you're relying on a lot of help to eventually reach the first ever Final Four, football style.

That's exactly where Michigan State is after the initial rankings were released Tuesday. The Spartans are the highest-ranked team in the Big Ten, but that doesn't mean much considering each of the other Power Five conferences has a team rated higher.

The committee is supposed to give extra weight to conference champions, and Michigan State is banking on that being the case. It will need the four SEC teams ahead of it to beat each other up, maybe hope for a loss from Florida State and hope teams like Kansas State, Notre Dame or Georgia don't run the table and jump ahead. All of this, of course, is assuming the Spartans don't lose again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Colorado State Rams (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS)

This week: -6.5 at San Jose State

Don’t be fooled by the fact that San Jose State boasts the nation’s leading pass defense. After all, it just faced a Navy team that attempted eight passes. The Spartans have not yet played an opponent that has more pass attempts than rushes on the season.

Head coach Ron Caragher basically admitted in his most recent press conference that his team has not been tested through the air. That may not be a good thing when the trend suddenly changes against Colorado State. The Rams’ feature senior quarterback Garrett Grayson, who earned Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors after CSU’s 45-31 win over Wyoming last Saturday. He leads the Mountain West with 2,456 passing yards and 21 touchdowns.

If SJSU wants to keep the Rams’ offense off the field, it won’t be helped in that effort with the two running backs expected to lead the way heading into this season on the sideline. Jarrod Lawson is suspended and Thomas Tucker is out for the year with a foot injury.

Team to beware: Army Black Knights (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS)

This week: +3.5 vs. Air Force

Army has some well-documented issues on its hands heading into this weekend’s home game against Air Force. A recent scandal emerged when it was reported that a recruiting trip in January included alcohol, women, and the general VIP treatment in order to impress possible incoming freshman. Starting quarterback Angel Santiago was allegedly among those involved.

A spokeswoman said the institution is coming down hard on the cadets with administrative punishments, but will not affect anyone athletically. Santiago and everyone else is expected to be on the field this Saturday.

It’s not like Army needs any distractions, either. It has lost two in a row by at least 20 points and fell 48-28 last season at Air Force. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to West Point.

Total team: Georgia Southern Eagles (6-2 SU, 5-3 O/U)

This week: vs. Troy

The college football week begins on Thursday with Georgia Southern vs. Troy (and FSU at Louisville, which also kicks off at 7:30 p.m.). Scoring should come in bunches in Statesboro, where the Eagles are coming off a 69-31 rout of Georgia State last Saturday. Behind an offensive line that has been awesome all season, six different GSU players scored rushing touchdowns and three had at least 12 carries.

It will be short week of preparation for both teams, which generally tends to hurt more on the defensive side of the ball. Troy at least got to play last Friday instead of Saturday (lost to South Alabama 27-13) but will have to travel on Wednesday—albeit a short distance. The over is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last seven overall and 4-0 in the Trojans’ last four Thursday games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF line watch: Best wait late to fade 7-0 ATS TCU
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats (-13.5)

Kansas State opened as 13-point home favorites over Oklahoma State, but expect this line to tick up at least to the key number of 14. The Wildcats were in a terrible situational spot last Saturday after upsetting Oklahoma on the road the week before, but they still came to play and beat Texas 23-0.

Oklahoma State is finally struggling like many thought it would at the beginning of the season. The Cowboys have lost back-to-back games by a combined score of 76-19. They’ve shown nothing that indicates they can turn things around, especially against a good team like Kansas State.

It would be wise to lay the points now with Kansas State before the line goes up to and possibly higher than the key number of 14.

Spread to wait on

TCU Horned Frogs at West Virginia Mountaineers (+6)

Texas Christian was originally posted as a 4-point road favorite at West Virginia, and the early money quickly came in on the Horned Frogs, moving the line up to -6. I expect the line to go up some more, especially when the public bettors get involved.

Texas Christian comes in off an incredible 82-27 home win over Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, so they are sure to attract public money in this game. West Virginia has been undervalued all season by the oddsmakers and bettors alike, and it’s the case once again in this contest.

The home dog Mountaineers hold the value in this game and it will be greater closer to kick off.

Total to watch

Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes (46.5)

Northwestern and Iowa are two teams built the same way. Both teams have conservative coaches that prefer to play ball control and win with their defense. The Wildcats are only averaging 20.9 points per game on just 4.6 yards per play this season. The Hawkeyes are averaging 27 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.

Both defenses have played above average football this year. Northwestern is allowing only 20.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses averaging 29.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. Iowa is allowing just 21.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus opponents averaging 28.1 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.

There will be value on the Under if the oddsmakers keep this total at 45 or higher.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Four fantastic futures bets that could shock the College Football Playoff
By KEVIN CAUSEY

The College Football Playoff committee has announced their first "Top 4", putting Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn and Mississippi atop the list of contenders for the national title.

However, those rankings are going to look a lot different by the time the college football season wraps up. There’s great futures value to be had looking at programs just outside of the playoff cutoff. Here are four of the better bets to crack the Top 4 and steal the national title.

TCU Horned Frogs (6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS)

Odds: 12/1 to win national title
Ranking: No. 7

Right now, Kansas State is in the driver seat in the Big 12 but it has three upcoming games on the road against Top 20 opponents (Baylor, TCU, WVU) and a game versus Oklahoma State. Texas Christian has two big games left (WVU, Kansas State) but only the WVU game is on the road.

It's hard to ignore the way the Horned Frogs have played in the last two games (combined victory of 124-36) and their leader Trevone Boykin is playing as well as anybody in the conference and maybe even the nation. The Big 12 doesn't have a championship game but TCU's only loss was on the road by three points to a good Baylor team, and that loss likely won't keep the Frogs out of the Top 4 if it's their only blemish.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

Odds: 20/1
Ranking: No. 10

The Irish feel like the forgotten team. In their last game, they lost to the defending national champs because of a controversial call to end the game. If FSU makes the playoff and the Irish remain a one-loss team, it will be almost impossible to keep them out of the playoff as a rematch is not only intriguing but would also mean big money to the NCAA.

Notre Dame has some roadblocks ahead (at Arizona State, vs. Northwestern, vs. Louisville and at USC) but if the Irish are truly a contender those should all be wins. They sit No. 10 but remember that Kansas State and TCU still play as well as Auburn/Ole Miss, Auburn/Alabama and Alabama/Mississippi State. That's four guaranteed losses for programs ahead of Notre Dame in the standings.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)

Odds: 40/1
Ranking: No. 15

The Cornhuskers haven't at all been mentioned in the same breath as the College Football Playoff but they have a real path to the Final Four. They have four games remaining with the toughest being a Nov. 15 date at Wisconsin. If the Huskers win out then they will represent the West in the Big Ten Championship Game and if they meet Michigan State they will have a chance to avenge their only loss.

A 12-1 Big Ten Champion that has beaten the only team they lost to would look very impressive to the selection committee. They also have the leading rusher in the nation in Ameer Adbullah (1,249 yards) and he won't let Nebraska go down without a fight.

Arizona Wildcats (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Odds: 50/1
Ranking: No. 12

The Wildcats have a difficult path ahead of them but they also have the advantage of showing that they can beat Oregon (and in Autzen to boot).

The path for Arizona includes road games at UCLA and Utah and a home game against Arizona State in addition to a Pac-12 Championship rematch with Oregon. If the Cats win out, they will have as impressive a resume as anyone and would have beaten Oregon twice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Lookahead spot

Bragging rights in the Big Ten and the inside track to a spot in the College Football Playoff is on the line when Ohio State visits Michigan State in Week 11 of the NCAAF schedule. But while the Spartans get a week off to prep for this massive matchup with the Buckeyes, OSU is at home to Illinois this Saturday in a dangerous lookahead spot.

Oddsmakers have installed Ohio State as a 28-point home favorite versus the Illini. The Buckeyes nearly shot their national title chances in the foot last weekend, blowing a 17-point lead against Penn State and needing two overtimes to escape with the 31-24 win Saturday. Ohio State could dumb down the playbook in preparation for MSU and allow Illinois to sneak away with the backdoor cover. There is a lack of focus already present with this Buckeyes squad, so bettors beware.

Schedule spot

The Los Angeles Lakers have enough issues to start the new NBA season. But the schedule makers couldn’t care less, penciling Los Angeles for four games in five nights to kick off the 2014-15 campaign. The Lakers open the calendar against the Rockets Tuesday, then travel to Phoenix Wednesday, back to L.A. to face the Clippers Friday, and finally go to Golden State Saturday night.

Los Angeles doesn’t have much around Kobe Bryant, whose health will definitely be an issue in the early going. The team could limit his minutes in the opening slate of games or just choose to rest him here and there. On top of that, players are nowhere near in shape this early in the season. So, even if Kobe is fresh, his teammates will likely be dragging their Nikes after trying to make up for his lost minutes. Keep an eye on Saturday’s odds in Golden State.