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Pelicans focus on defense a boon for unders
Justin Hartling

The New Orleans Pelicans have a stunning 1-8 over/under record in their past nine games. The Pelicans have been averaging 94.9 points per game while allowing 91 ppg during that nine game span.

The combined average of 185.9 ppg during that nine game stretch is a full 13.1 points less than their season average (199).
 
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NCAAB

Kent State won last six games after a 9-5 start; they're 2-0 on MAC road, winning by 2 at No Illinois, 11 at Ball State. Flashes got swept by Bulls LY by 11-9 points, after winning six of previous seven in series. Buffalo is 3-0 in MAC home games, winning by 19-9-6 points; home side won their last six games- they're 0-3 vs top 100 teams, with best wins by two over #117 South Dakota State. MAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-5 vs spread.

Harvard won four of last five games with Princeton, but are 1-10 in last 11 visits to Jadwin Gym, snapping long skid with 57-47 win last season. Crimson lost two of last three games; they're 4-3 on road, 5-1 vs teams outside top 200, losing by point to Holy Cross. Ivy League home teams are currently 0-7 against the spread. Princeton won four of last five D-I games but they're 0-2 vs teams in top 125, losing by 6 to UTEP, by 14 at Wake Forest, with UTEP loss on neutral floor.

Dartmouth won two of last three games with Penn, after losing seven of previous eight series games; Big Green lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 10-31-3-9 points. Quakers lost five of last seven games but upset crosstown rival St Joe's in last game. Dartmouth is 4-3 in last seven road games, upsetting Harvard in last game; they're just 5-4 against teams outside the top 200. Ivy League home underdogs are 0-3 vs spread.

Brown won its last three games with Cornell by 19-12-6 points, but they just lost leading scorer/rebounder King, a huge blow. Bruins got swept by Yale by 18-4 points; Bruins won last two visits here, lost last three road games by 20-7-4 points, with losses at URI-Yale-UNH. Ivy League home favorites are 0-4 vs spread. Cornell split pair with Columbia to open Ivy play; they're 5-2 against teams ranked outside top 200, losing to George Mason and Drexel.

Yale won 10 of last 12 games with Columbia, but lost two of last three here, beating Lions in postseason tourney last March after losing by 16 in regular season visit. Bulldogs are 2-0 and atop Ivy- they're 6-5 in its true road games, 3-6 vs top 200 teams, beating UConn/Kent State and losing to Providence by 5. Columbia is 1-4 vs teams in top 150, with best win by 5 over Hofstra. Ivy League home teams are 0-7 against the spread.

Oregon outscored Arizona State 12-5 over last 4:23 to beat Sun Devils 59-56 in first meeting 19 days ago, sixth straight series win for the home side. Ducks lost last five visits to Tempe by 8-18-10-20-2 points. ASU won three of last four games, winning last two at home, over Colorado by 6, Oregon State by 18. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 12-5 vs spread. Oregon lost only three road games by 9-8-34 points, which is what happens when you have no pre-conference road experience.

Oregon State upset Arizona 58-56 in Corvallis 19 days ago, ending seven game series skid; Beavers lost last three visits here by 11-8-22 points, in series where Arizona is 18-5 in last 23 games overall. Beavers are 1-3 on Pac-12 road with losses by 12-13-18 points and win at Washington St. Wildcats won last five games, are 4-0 at home in league, winning games by 24-14-18-24 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 7-2-2 vs spread.

Monmouth outscored Fairfield 30-15 on foul line in 77-70 home win over Stags 12 days ago; Hawks were 1-12 from arc, Fairfield 11-30. Home side won all three series games; Hawks lost 60-56 here LY. Monmouth won three of last four games, is 4-1 on MAAC road, losing at Manhattan by 7 in last game. Fairfield lost nine of last eleven games; they're 2-3 at home in MAAC, beating Manhattan/Marist. MAAC home underdogs are 9-7-1 against the spread.

Home side won both Quinnipiac-Canisius games LY; Bobcats lost by 12 in visit here. Quinnipiac is 8-3 in last 11 games after a 3-5 start; they've won last three games, with road wins last week at St Peter's/Marist and a 14-point home win over Manhattan. Griffins won three of last four tilts, are 2-2 at home in MAAC, beating Siena/Iona, losing to Manhattan, Monmouth by total of 8 points. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-12 vs spread.

Siena is 3-4 in last seven games but 2-2 on MAAC road, losing by 34 at Canisius, 12 at Rider, winning at Niagara/Fairfield. Saints won 12 of last 16 games with Manhattan, but lost last four visits here by 3-19-20-22 points in series where home side won last eight regular season meetings. Jaspers are 4-1 at home in MAAC but only one of wins was by more than nine points. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 6-9 vs spread.

Marist-Niagara are both horrible; I wouldn't bet this game with your $$$. Niagara lost its last eight games, with six of eight by 9+ points; they've won four of last five games with Marist, and have won seven in a row at home over the Red Foxes. Marist snapped 14-game losing streak in last game with home upset of Fairfield; they're 0-5 on MAAC road, with four losses by 9+ points. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-12 vs spread.

Western Illinois won its last five games with IUPUI, winning last three here by 2-4-5 points; Leathernecks lost last five games, with home losses to ORU by 9, South Dakota by 10- they're shooting only 39 inside arc. IUPUI split its four Summit road games; two of Jaguars' last three losses were in OT- they're turning ball over 24.4% of time in conference play. Summit League home underdogs of 3 or less points are 4-2 vs spread.
 
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'ACC Showdown'

Saturday night the eyes of college basketball fans and those focused on college basketball betting will be on the Atlantic Coast Conference showdown between Duke and Virginia at John Paul Jones Arena. Blue Devils dealing nicely without Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood who moved to the NBA are off to a 17-3 (10-9-1 ATS) start netting a robust 81.2 points/game while shooting 49.6% from the field. Jahlil Okafor leads coach K's troops dropping 18.7 per contest with Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow all chipping in double digits. On the other side, Cavaliers lead by Justin Anderson (13.9) are not as efficient offensively netting 68.3 points/game but their strength comes at the defensive end with its top-ranked scoring defense (49.2 PPG) and second-ranked field-goal defense (34.2%). The trends line up well for Virginia in this matchup. Cavaliers 19-0 (12-5 ATS) on the campaign have a 21-0 stretch going at John Paul Jones Arena with a profitable 13-5 mark against the betting line. Cavaliers have also been the right betting choice against an ACC opponent of late posting a sharp 17-4-2 ATS record. Duke on the other hand unable to handle Fighting Irish last time out at Notre Dame are just 3-10-2 ATS last 15 vs the conference including 1-8 ATS in road/neutral site games vs the ACC.
 
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Teyas Sports

FREE PICK NCAA ARIZONA ST. -6

DID YOU KNOW NCAA YALE @ COLUMBIA THE BULLDOGS ARE 10-2 ATS THE LAST 12 MEETINGS VS THE LIONS
 
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Mr. Vegas

NBA Bonus Play for Friday, Jan 30, 2015:

LA Clippers at New Orleans. New Orleans has home court and is trying to get the last playoff seed in the West, but they are not a good defensive team, 14th in points allowed and 25th in field goal shooting defense. That will be exploited by the LA Clippers, who are fourth in the NBA in scoring and third in assists. The over is 6-2-1 when the Clippers face the NBA Southwest division. And when these teams meet the over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in New Orleans.

Play the LA Clippers/New Orleans Over the total.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

(837) MARIST at (838) NIAGARA 7:00PM

Take: (837) MARIST +4.5

Calling this a tough campaign for Marist is a massive understatement. Calling it a disaster is more accurate. The Red Foxes didn’t figure to be especially good, but when the injuries to key personnel started piling up, Marist was getting overmatched in nearly every game.

There’s good news in Poughkeepsie. Khalid Hart and TJ Curry are finally back after lengthy stays on the sideline. Chavaughn Lewis no longer has to be a virtual one-man attack. And following 18 losses in the first 19 games, the Red Doxes are heading to Niagara off a win. That’s a big burden lifted off the players and I would expect Marist to be upbeat heading to upstate New York for this game.

Now it’s the Purple Eagles who are desperate for a victory. Niagara has lost eight straight and all that youth seeing so many minutes appears to be taking its toll on the squad right now. Two sophs are the stars for the home team. Emile Blackman has been scoring well lately and Ramone Snowden has been their most consistent threat over the course of the season.

I think there might be a little value with Marist. This is a much different team with the Lewis, Hart and Curry trio back together. That’s not to suggest the Red Foxes are top of the MAAC material but they’re no longer a walkover for any opponent in this league. With Niagara struggling pretty badly at the present time, I prefer Marist plus the points tonight.
 
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Jim Feist

NBA Comp Pick for Friday, January 30, 2015: 7:05 PM EST

(801) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS (802) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS


Take: (802) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Friday, January 30, 2015 comes in the NBA as Minnesota and the 76ers meet in Philadelphia. Minnesota is off a rare win, but it was against a Boston team winding down a 6-game trip. This Minnesota team is still 21st in points scored, 26th in rebounds, as well as 30th in points allowed. They are dead last in the league defensively allowing .493% shooting. The Timberwolves are 4-11 ATS playing on one days rest. Philadelphia is off a big win, as Mike Carter-Williams had 14 points and 10 assists, Robert Covington scored 19 points and the 76ers had an 89-69 win over the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday night. The 76ers are 9-4 ATS against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Play the 76ers.
 
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Art Aronson

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New Jersey Devils

1* Bonus Play OVER Pens/Devils

How do you go about basing your Over/Under picks in the NHL (or in any sport for that matter?). Do you look for a team that’s currently red hot offensively and simply bet the OVER? Do you automatically assume a total will go UNDER the number because a team has done well defensively of late? Those of course are the most obvious factors to base a “totals” play on, and while “recent performance” does play a role in my selection process, it’s certainly not the only set of criteria that I use. Anyone that’s followed me for any lengthy of time knows that I am primarily a “situational” handicapper at heart, but that I don’t follow any one particular methodology religiously and that I believe remaining “flexible” at all times is the best way to approach a contest. Being a situtational handicapper allows you to take the “players” out of the equation a lot of the time, and for me that’s definitely the case for the most part, it rarely matters who is playing and who isn’t in my process (unless of course it’s a Top 5 player like LeBron James or Tom Brady etc). It’s not a big secret in that I base my Over/Under picks on “lop sided” trends and numbers and in this case, each team has played to the UNDER a few times coming into this one, switching the value to the higher number in my opinion. While the Pens opened the second half with a 5-3 win over Winnipeg, they’d then revert and fall 4-0 the following night to Washington; Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four. New Jersey came out of the break with a low-scoring 2-1 win over Toronto, after playing to three straight OVERs to end the first half. However take note that of the three games these teams have already played against each other this season, two of of them have dipped below the posted number, including in the last two straight. I’ll be the first to admit that the “Law Of Averages” is flawed in many ways, but I have always felt that “lopsided” numbers and trends have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves over the short, mid and long term. I think there are enough factors working in our favor here to pull the trigger on the OVER.

AAA Sports
 
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Brad Diamond

Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat

Bonus Play on: (814) Miami+ over Dallas @ 8:05 Eastern

When you’re catching this many at home there has to be a good reason for Vegas itching the opening number. Perhaps the real key is guard Wade being out of the lineup for the Heat. In addition, Dallas has covered at a 13-3-1 clip in Miami. Still, we don’t believe the Mavs can cover this large opener considering they are on a 0-4 SU & ATS run. The losses were to Houston, Memphis, New Orleans and Chicago. Overall Dallas has a favorable net point differential of almost 18 points in the matchup, but this does not necessarily project a spread victory. Home standing Miami has won 7 straight in the series.

The Mavs (30-17) are 22-24-1 ATS, whereas Miami (20-25) is 20-23-2 ATS. Dallas comes in 16-9 SU on the road, Miami 8-14 SU at home. The Mavs show 3-12-1 ATS after an ATS loss and 0-7-1 ATS off a SU loss. Miami with a 4-0 ATS mark off a SU loss.
 
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Marc Lawrence

Houston Rockets vs. Boston Celtics

Play - Boston Celtics

Edges - Celtics: 5-0 ATS last five games as a dog; and 3-0 ATS off SU DD loss versus non-conference foe off SU win this season. Rockets: 2-11 ATS away after Mavericks versus foe off SUATS loss. With the Celtics looking to avenge a 14-point loss suffered at Houston on opening day this season, the points become the play here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston. Thank you and good luck as always.
 
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Doc's Sports

Harvard vs. Princeton

Free College Basketball Prediction From Doc's Sports :Take #819 Harvard over Princeton (6 p.m., Friday, Jan. 30)

The Crimson are coming off a disappointing loss to Dartmouth, and that makes this road game at Princeton extremely important. Harvard does not have the resume to get to the NCAA Tournament as an at-large selection and the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament. Harvard has dominated the Ivy League the last couple of years, and they do not want to drop two conference games this year in the conference season. Take the road favorite tonight in New Jersey.
 

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