axiumsports.com
January 22nd 2009
*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*
Current Bankroll=$3,024.56
Pick #11-Germany Bundesliga 2 Soccer-FSV Frankfurt/Greuther Fuerth UNDER 2.5 -110
Pick #12-NCAAB-Yale/Brown UNDER 140.5 -108
Pick #13-NBA-New Jersey/Golden State UNDER 216.5 -105
January 22nd 2009
*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*
Current Bankroll=$3,024.56
Pick #11-Germany Bundesliga 2 Soccer-FSV Frankfurt/Greuther Fuerth UNDER 2.5 -110
Pick #12-NCAAB-Yale/Brown UNDER 140.5 -108
Pick #13-NBA-New Jersey/Golden State UNDER 216.5 -105
Bobby Maxwell
Houston +6 at SAN ANTONIO
I'm red-hot with my Bonus Plays, sitting at 55-23, including 32-9 over the last 41 days. Tonight I have an NBA free winner for you as I grab the points with the Rockets as they visit their in-state rivals in San Antonio.
I’m grabbing the points with the Rockets in this one as the road team has won the last three in this rivalry. Also, Houston is starting to score some serious points and that will be tough for the old legs of the Spurs to keep up with.
The Rockets have topped the 100-point mark in five of the last six games, including Monday’s 101-98 win over the Bucks in OT. Now they’ve had three days off to rest up for the Spurs, who they beat in San Antonio at the end of last season, 87-85 as a three-point underdog.
San Antonio has dropped three of four overall and just got beat by the Jazz on Wednesday, 105-98, on the home floor, failing as a 5 ½-point favorite. These guys haven’t gotten to triple digits since Jan. 13, a run of four games (1-3 ATS).
What it usually boils down to is if the Spurs’ Tony Parker doesn’t have a huge game, they aren’t going to get the win. And with Houston’s Aaron Brooks able to stay with Parker, the Rockets should be able to keep him relatively quiet.
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to San Antonio and I expect more of the same tonight. Grab the points and play the Rockets.
5? HOUSTON
Houston +6 at SAN ANTONIO
I'm red-hot with my Bonus Plays, sitting at 55-23, including 32-9 over the last 41 days. Tonight I have an NBA free winner for you as I grab the points with the Rockets as they visit their in-state rivals in San Antonio.
I’m grabbing the points with the Rockets in this one as the road team has won the last three in this rivalry. Also, Houston is starting to score some serious points and that will be tough for the old legs of the Spurs to keep up with.
The Rockets have topped the 100-point mark in five of the last six games, including Monday’s 101-98 win over the Bucks in OT. Now they’ve had three days off to rest up for the Spurs, who they beat in San Antonio at the end of last season, 87-85 as a three-point underdog.
San Antonio has dropped three of four overall and just got beat by the Jazz on Wednesday, 105-98, on the home floor, failing as a 5 ½-point favorite. These guys haven’t gotten to triple digits since Jan. 13, a run of four games (1-3 ATS).
What it usually boils down to is if the Spurs’ Tony Parker doesn’t have a huge game, they aren’t going to get the win. And with Houston’s Aaron Brooks able to stay with Parker, the Rockets should be able to keep him relatively quiet.
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to San Antonio and I expect more of the same tonight. Grab the points and play the Rockets.
5? HOUSTON
Dominic Fazzini
Dallas -3 at PHILADELPHIA
I should have made Stanford my main play instead of my complimentary selection Thursday! The Cardinal rolled to a 59-35 home victory over Oregon State, improving my record to 60-40-3 over the last 103 days, with a 43-27-3 run over the last 73.
I don't know if today's Bonus Play is going to come in quite as easily, but I've got a lot of confidence in the Mavericks tonight at Philadelphia.
Dallas has one of the best road records in the NBA at 15-7, and the 76ers are just as bad at home as they are on the road, going 6-14 in Philly.
The Mavericks have won three straight games against the Sixers, and seven of the last eight meetings between the teams.
Philadelphia is not a good defensive team, allowing opponents to shoot 47.3 percent this season, and now it gets the pleasure of trying to stop red-hot Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging 29.2 ppg over his last five games, shooting 56.3 percent in the process.
The Mavs might be without forward Josh Howard, who missed Wednesday's game with a stomach illness, but I think they'll be OK even if they have to play without him against a Sixers team that is on ATS slides of 7-19 at home and 0-7 as a home underdog. Take Dallas to win pretty easily tonight.
3? DALLAS
Dallas -3 at PHILADELPHIA
I should have made Stanford my main play instead of my complimentary selection Thursday! The Cardinal rolled to a 59-35 home victory over Oregon State, improving my record to 60-40-3 over the last 103 days, with a 43-27-3 run over the last 73.
I don't know if today's Bonus Play is going to come in quite as easily, but I've got a lot of confidence in the Mavericks tonight at Philadelphia.
Dallas has one of the best road records in the NBA at 15-7, and the 76ers are just as bad at home as they are on the road, going 6-14 in Philly.
The Mavericks have won three straight games against the Sixers, and seven of the last eight meetings between the teams.
Philadelphia is not a good defensive team, allowing opponents to shoot 47.3 percent this season, and now it gets the pleasure of trying to stop red-hot Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging 29.2 ppg over his last five games, shooting 56.3 percent in the process.
The Mavs might be without forward Josh Howard, who missed Wednesday's game with a stomach illness, but I think they'll be OK even if they have to play without him against a Sixers team that is on ATS slides of 7-19 at home and 0-7 as a home underdog. Take Dallas to win pretty easily tonight.
3? DALLAS
Karl Garrett
Miami -2 at WASHINGTON
It doesn't get much worse than getting beat 104-65, and that is exactly what happened to Miami on Wednesday at Charlotte. The G-Man feels that the Heat will show some pride tonight, and take it out on Washington.
The Wizards have proven to be scrappy of late, as they have covered 4 in a row coming into this Friday contest, and Washington did win the season's first meeting between the teams, 94-84 at the end of November in Miami.
G-Man expects things in this series to return to normal, as Miami had won the previous 6 series meetings, and had covered the previous 7 series meetings.
Overall, the road team is 21-6-2 against the line the last 29 times these teams have tangled.
If Miami has any pride at all, they will come out strong tonight after that Wednesday night debacle in Charlotte.
G-Man going with the Heat here.
4♦ MIAMI
Miami -2 at WASHINGTON
It doesn't get much worse than getting beat 104-65, and that is exactly what happened to Miami on Wednesday at Charlotte. The G-Man feels that the Heat will show some pride tonight, and take it out on Washington.
The Wizards have proven to be scrappy of late, as they have covered 4 in a row coming into this Friday contest, and Washington did win the season's first meeting between the teams, 94-84 at the end of November in Miami.
G-Man expects things in this series to return to normal, as Miami had won the previous 6 series meetings, and had covered the previous 7 series meetings.
Overall, the road team is 21-6-2 against the line the last 29 times these teams have tangled.
If Miami has any pride at all, they will come out strong tonight after that Wednesday night debacle in Charlotte.
G-Man going with the Heat here.
4♦ MIAMI
Craig Trapp Bonus Play
821 Houston Rockets +6: Really like the way Houston matches up against SAS. Most teams don't have anyone that can slow down Tim Duncan but the Rockets can rotate three players on him and really give him difficulty. On offense the Rockets also have a very good inside/outside threats. The Rockets are the best defensive team in the West and its a true gift to get this many points. The Rockets win this one straight up with outstanding defense and team rebounding!
821 Houston Rockets +6: Really like the way Houston matches up against SAS. Most teams don't have anyone that can slow down Tim Duncan but the Rockets can rotate three players on him and really give him difficulty. On offense the Rockets also have a very good inside/outside threats. The Rockets are the best defensive team in the West and its a true gift to get this many points. The Rockets win this one straight up with outstanding defense and team rebounding!
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Dallas over Philadelphia
It was no secret to Philadelphia Basketball fans that the Sixers are short on coaching and PG position. But, other night former PG Andre Miller was in town for the visiting Blazers and he was asked, what is missing from the Philly floor game? Miller simply replied, "a point guard." You see, Miller was the Philly PB last season and made the feeble franchise look respectable when he was running the offense. Now we have Iverson, Williams and Iggy trying to run the point along with the kid from UCLA. General Manager has been making poor decisions in his short tenure in Philadelphia. His club plays little defense, and clearly can't run HC Jordan's Princeton offense??? Maybe, they are waiting for the lottery and hoping the JW from Kentucky will coming out this spring.
Play on: Dallas over Philadelphia
It was no secret to Philadelphia Basketball fans that the Sixers are short on coaching and PG position. But, other night former PG Andre Miller was in town for the visiting Blazers and he was asked, what is missing from the Philly floor game? Miller simply replied, "a point guard." You see, Miller was the Philly PB last season and made the feeble franchise look respectable when he was running the offense. Now we have Iverson, Williams and Iggy trying to run the point along with the kid from UCLA. General Manager has been making poor decisions in his short tenure in Philadelphia. His club plays little defense, and clearly can't run HC Jordan's Princeton offense??? Maybe, they are waiting for the lottery and hoping the JW from Kentucky will coming out this spring.
EZWINNERS
Golden State Warriors -7.5
The New Jersey Nets do not have the offensive fire power to keep up with the style of play and tempo that the Warriors will force in this game. The only real scoring threat that the Nets have is center Brook Lopez and his style of game is in the half court set, not the up and down game that Golden State will play. New Jersey is only 7-16 against the spread in their last 23 road games and they are 0-9 against the NBA Pacific division. The Warriors are 15-3 against the spread against the NBA Atlantic division and they are on a 10-3 run against the spread in their last 13 games overall. New Jersey's point guard Devin Harris looked to be budding into an NBA All-Star last season, but has fallen off of the map this year. He will be badly outplayed by the combo of Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis. Lay the points.
Golden State Warriors -7.5
The New Jersey Nets do not have the offensive fire power to keep up with the style of play and tempo that the Warriors will force in this game. The only real scoring threat that the Nets have is center Brook Lopez and his style of game is in the half court set, not the up and down game that Golden State will play. New Jersey is only 7-16 against the spread in their last 23 road games and they are 0-9 against the NBA Pacific division. The Warriors are 15-3 against the spread against the NBA Atlantic division and they are on a 10-3 run against the spread in their last 13 games overall. New Jersey's point guard Devin Harris looked to be budding into an NBA All-Star last season, but has fallen off of the map this year. He will be badly outplayed by the combo of Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis. Lay the points.
JIM FEIST COMP
(825) NEW JERSEY NETS
(826) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Take "Over"
The Nets still aren't winning games, but at least they are scoring some points! New Jersey is on a 5-2 run over the total. But this defense is getting worse, giving up 106 or more points in each of the last four games. That's not surprising with a team that is winding up a lost season. That defense will struggle again against a Golden State uptempo offense that is second in the NBA in scoring with 107.7 ppg. This is the sixth straight home game for the rested Warriors, so look for them to run at the road-weary visitors, meaning plenty of points. Play the Nets/Warriors Over the total.
(825) NEW JERSEY NETS
(826) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Take "Over"
The Nets still aren't winning games, but at least they are scoring some points! New Jersey is on a 5-2 run over the total. But this defense is getting worse, giving up 106 or more points in each of the last four games. That's not surprising with a team that is winding up a lost season. That defense will struggle again against a Golden State uptempo offense that is second in the NBA in scoring with 107.7 ppg. This is the sixth straight home game for the rested Warriors, so look for them to run at the road-weary visitors, meaning plenty of points. Play the Nets/Warriors Over the total.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
The Heat were absolutely bombed in their last game, losing by 39 at Charlotte. Off a big loss, this team traditionally bounces back well as we note Miami is 13-3 against the spread the last two seasons off a loss by 15 or more. The Nation's Capital is the perfect place for them to get back on track as they have covered an astounding 23 of their last 28 visits in Washington. With the Wizards a horrible 7-25 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 and 5-18 ATS vs. division opponents, things should be no different this time around.
Play on: Miami
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
The Heat were absolutely bombed in their last game, losing by 39 at Charlotte. Off a big loss, this team traditionally bounces back well as we note Miami is 13-3 against the spread the last two seasons off a loss by 15 or more. The Nation's Capital is the perfect place for them to get back on track as they have covered an astounding 23 of their last 28 visits in Washington. With the Wizards a horrible 7-25 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 and 5-18 ATS vs. division opponents, things should be no different this time around.
Play on: Miami
BIG AL
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Houston Rockets
In its last game, Gregg Popovich's crew fell at home -- as a favorite -- to the Utah Jazz, and that was a very disappointing loss given the game's circumstances. The Spurs had already dropped three games to Utah this season, and wanted to come out and salvage the season series with at least one win. But even though San Antonio looked good in spurts (it even outscored the Jazz 25-0 at one point), it wasn't consistent enough to overcome solid efforts by Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer. Frankly, this is turning into a "lost season" for the Spurs. After much optimism to start the 2009-10 campaign, they've yet to look like a championship contender. And part of the reason is that newcomers Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess have greatly underachieved. Throw in the fact that point guard Tony Parker is battling foot problems, and it's really no surprise the Spurs have been mediocre this season. In contrast, the Rockets have over-achieved, notwithstanding the fact that they've failed to cover four straight games. Let's back Houston tonight as an underdog in the Alamo City, especially given the fact that Houston is a super 63-36 ATS off three or more pointspread losses since 1996.
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Houston Rockets
In its last game, Gregg Popovich's crew fell at home -- as a favorite -- to the Utah Jazz, and that was a very disappointing loss given the game's circumstances. The Spurs had already dropped three games to Utah this season, and wanted to come out and salvage the season series with at least one win. But even though San Antonio looked good in spurts (it even outscored the Jazz 25-0 at one point), it wasn't consistent enough to overcome solid efforts by Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer. Frankly, this is turning into a "lost season" for the Spurs. After much optimism to start the 2009-10 campaign, they've yet to look like a championship contender. And part of the reason is that newcomers Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess have greatly underachieved. Throw in the fact that point guard Tony Parker is battling foot problems, and it's really no surprise the Spurs have been mediocre this season. In contrast, the Rockets have over-achieved, notwithstanding the fact that they've failed to cover four straight games. Let's back Houston tonight as an underdog in the Alamo City, especially given the fact that Houston is a super 63-36 ATS off three or more pointspread losses since 1996.
Marc Lawrence
New Orleans Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
When the Timberwolves host the Hornets at the Target center Friday night they will do so knowing they are 13-5 ATS in this series when they own a win percentage of less than .333 on the season, including 11-2 ATS when they are off a loss. Minny is also 14-7 ATS this season as a dog in games against an opponent off a win. With the Hornets looking dead ahead to a big showdown at Denver tomorrow night, look for the T'Wolves to avenge a pair of single-digit losses suffered last month against New Orleans here tonight.
New Orleans Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
When the Timberwolves host the Hornets at the Target center Friday night they will do so knowing they are 13-5 ATS in this series when they own a win percentage of less than .333 on the season, including 11-2 ATS when they are off a loss. Minny is also 14-7 ATS this season as a dog in games against an opponent off a win. With the Hornets looking dead ahead to a big showdown at Denver tomorrow night, look for the T'Wolves to avenge a pair of single-digit losses suffered last month against New Orleans here tonight.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
COL (-130) vs NAS
To date, Nashville and Colorado could arguably be considered the biggest "surprises" of the year; that being said, for a number of different reasons I believe the Av's will win this home game and that this is a very favorable line for the home side:
Nashville is coming off a disappointing loss last night in Phoenix and I believe it will be prime for another "letdown" this evening.
The Predators were in position to win, leading 2-1 after two periods but Coyotes right wing Scottie Upshall had a natural hat trick in the third period to send Nashville to its second straight defeat.
On the other side of the rink: The Avalanche have 62 points and are tied atop the Northwest Division with the Canucks. Though both teams have the same number of points, Colorado is third in the conference because it's played one fewer game than Vancouver.
Colorado and Nashville have met twice this season with the Predators winning both in thrilling fashion; the "double-revenge factor" comes into play this evening as well.
Bottom line: This is a spot that Colorado has done extremely well in all season: 10-3 (+9.8 units) when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. It's also an awesome 8-3 (+6.6 units) after a victory by two goals or more; I believe when you take all of the above factors into consideration, along with this favorable line, that COLORADO is certainly worth a second look in this instance.
COL (-130) vs NAS
To date, Nashville and Colorado could arguably be considered the biggest "surprises" of the year; that being said, for a number of different reasons I believe the Av's will win this home game and that this is a very favorable line for the home side:
Nashville is coming off a disappointing loss last night in Phoenix and I believe it will be prime for another "letdown" this evening.
The Predators were in position to win, leading 2-1 after two periods but Coyotes right wing Scottie Upshall had a natural hat trick in the third period to send Nashville to its second straight defeat.
On the other side of the rink: The Avalanche have 62 points and are tied atop the Northwest Division with the Canucks. Though both teams have the same number of points, Colorado is third in the conference because it's played one fewer game than Vancouver.
Colorado and Nashville have met twice this season with the Predators winning both in thrilling fashion; the "double-revenge factor" comes into play this evening as well.
Bottom line: This is a spot that Colorado has done extremely well in all season: 10-3 (+9.8 units) when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. It's also an awesome 8-3 (+6.6 units) after a victory by two goals or more; I believe when you take all of the above factors into consideration, along with this favorable line, that COLORADO is certainly worth a second look in this instance.
Matt Fargo
3* Toronto Raptors
This line may seem bigger than it should be considering the Raptors were a 2.5-point underdog in Milwaukee on Wednesday making this a 10-point swing but I believe it is justified. Toronto lost that game by six points after leading for much of the contest and that made it two straight losses in Milwaukee this season for the Raptors making this a double-revenge spot. Toronto has had a very rough schedule over the last couple weeks as seven of their last 10 games were on the road and the three games played at home were no easy outs as those came against Dallas, Boston and San Antonio. The Raptors took two of those three home games and actually went 5-5 during this stretch which is pretty impressive in my opinion. They are looking to start strong here as this is the first game of the schedule turn as it is more in the favor of the Raptors in the foreseeable future. 11 of the next 14 games are played at home with the three road games being at New York, Indiana and New Jersey meaning a huge run could be in store for the Raptors beginning tonight. Milwaukee has not had a very likable schedule either as it was coming off a brutal six-game Western Conference roadtrip where it went 1-5 before it played the Raptors the other night. Now instead of some time at home, the Bucks have to hit the road again tonight before coming home against tomorrow night. All in all, this is a lot of travel as Milwaukee has not stayed stationary for more than one night since over Christmas which was the last time it played back-to-back home games. The road has been rough for Milwaukee this season as it is 5-16 away from home including a 3-14 run following a 2-2 start. One of those victories came at New Jersey so we can actually not even count that one either. As a favorite this season, Milwaukee is 12-3 but as an underdog it is 5-20 meaning the favored team has gone 32-8 in its 40 games on the season. That is the straight up record and while the Bucks have been decent as underdogs, this is not a situation it has been accustomed to. Toronto also falls into a great bounce back situation. Play against teams that are coming off a home win by scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two teams with a losing record with a winning percentage higher than .400. This situation is 50-19 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1996. The home team has covered four of the last five meetings and that continues on Friday. 3* Toronto Raptors
3* Toronto Raptors
This line may seem bigger than it should be considering the Raptors were a 2.5-point underdog in Milwaukee on Wednesday making this a 10-point swing but I believe it is justified. Toronto lost that game by six points after leading for much of the contest and that made it two straight losses in Milwaukee this season for the Raptors making this a double-revenge spot. Toronto has had a very rough schedule over the last couple weeks as seven of their last 10 games were on the road and the three games played at home were no easy outs as those came against Dallas, Boston and San Antonio. The Raptors took two of those three home games and actually went 5-5 during this stretch which is pretty impressive in my opinion. They are looking to start strong here as this is the first game of the schedule turn as it is more in the favor of the Raptors in the foreseeable future. 11 of the next 14 games are played at home with the three road games being at New York, Indiana and New Jersey meaning a huge run could be in store for the Raptors beginning tonight. Milwaukee has not had a very likable schedule either as it was coming off a brutal six-game Western Conference roadtrip where it went 1-5 before it played the Raptors the other night. Now instead of some time at home, the Bucks have to hit the road again tonight before coming home against tomorrow night. All in all, this is a lot of travel as Milwaukee has not stayed stationary for more than one night since over Christmas which was the last time it played back-to-back home games. The road has been rough for Milwaukee this season as it is 5-16 away from home including a 3-14 run following a 2-2 start. One of those victories came at New Jersey so we can actually not even count that one either. As a favorite this season, Milwaukee is 12-3 but as an underdog it is 5-20 meaning the favored team has gone 32-8 in its 40 games on the season. That is the straight up record and while the Bucks have been decent as underdogs, this is not a situation it has been accustomed to. Toronto also falls into a great bounce back situation. Play against teams that are coming off a home win by scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two teams with a losing record with a winning percentage higher than .400. This situation is 50-19 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1996. The home team has covered four of the last five meetings and that continues on Friday. 3* Toronto Raptors
