Fresno State vs Hawaii 11/19/2011

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Fresno State winning 43% of simulations, and Hawaii 57% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Fresno State commits fewer turnovers in 26% of simulations and they go on to win 62% when they take care of the ball. Hawaii wins 67% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Robbie Rouse is averaging 109 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (32% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. Bryant Moniz is averaging 355 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (43% chance) then he helps his team win 72%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is HAW -5.5

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