Fresno State vs Boise State 10/13/2012

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Boise State is a heavy favorite winning 75% of simulations over Fresno State. Joe Southwick is averaging 237 passing yards and 1.9 TDs per simulation and D.J. Harper is projected for 85 rushing yards and a 68% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 25% of simulations where Fresno State wins, Derek Carr averages 2 TD passes vs 0.81 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.07 TDs to 1.04 interceptions. Robbie Rouse averages 117 rushing yards and 1.14 rushing TDs when Fresno State wins and 101 yards and 0.65 TDs in losses. Boise State has a 34% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 88% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is BST -9

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