BIO:
Rich Green is the editor of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com , a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 35 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.
Rich Green is the editor of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com , a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 35 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.
(SCROLL DOWN FOR NFL TRENDS)
2012 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) TrendsHere is a look before the 2012 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:
Air Force -- 6-0 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 6-0 Home off a Straight Up Dog win, 8-1 ATS after playing Wyoming
Akron -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS with Rest off a win, 0-5 ATS after playing Kent
Alabama -- 22-10 ATS as Road Favorites, 1-6 ATS before playing Tennessee
UAB -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS as non-Conference Dogs, 0-5 ATS as Favorites greater than 11 points
Arizona -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS vs Usc, 1-6 ATS after playing Usc
Arizona State -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS after playing Oregon State, 0-4 ATS as Favs off a SU Fav loss
Arkansas -- New Head Coach, 10-1 ATS as Favorites <=15 points, 1-7 ATS before playing Alabama
Arkansas State -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS in Game One, 0-4 ATS after allowing 10 or less points
Army -- 11-1 ATS as Dogs in first of back-to-back Road Games, 5-26 ATS with Rest
Auburn -- 11-2 ATS after playing Ark, 1-5 ATS as Road Favs > a Field Goal
Ball State -- 25-8 ATS as Road Dogs recently, 0-5 ATS in first of back-to-back Home Games
Baylor -- 4-0 ATS as Road Dogs greater than 12 points, 1-10 ATS before playing Oklahoma
Boise State -- 6-0 ATS in second of back-to-back Road games, 0-4 ATS in first of back-to-back Road games
Boston College -- 8-0 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games, 0-5 ATS off non-Conference game versus below avg opponents
Bowling Green -- 20-11 ATS as Road Dogs recently, 1-8 ATS with Rest
BYU -- 5-0 ATS before playing Utah, 0-6 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games
Buffalo -- 4-1 ATS as Home Favorites with Revenge, 2-8 ATS vs non-Conference opponents
California -- 9-1 ATS in first lined Game, 0-5 ATS as Favs off a SU Dog win
Central Florida -- 6-1 ATS after playing Southern Mississippi, 2-8 ATS with Rest
Central Michigan -- 11-2 ATS in Conference openers, 1-7 ATS as Dogs off a SU Dog win
Cincinnati -- 9-0 ATS before playing Louisville, 2-8 ATS last game of season
Clemson -- 6-0 ATS after playing Florida State, 2-9 ATS as Double Digit Road Favorites
Colorado -- 0-9 ATS as Favs versus the Pac 12, 1-9 ATS as Dogs off a Straight Up Dog win
Colorado State -- New Head Coach, 1-8 ATS before playing San Diego State, 1-5 ATS as non-Conference Road Favs
Connecticut -- 13-2 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-6 ATS on the Road after allowing a TouchDown or less
Duke -- 18-11 ATS as Road Dogs, 2-11 ATS on the Road after scoring 35 or more points
East Carolina -- 14-1 ATS as Conference Road Dogs of six or less points, 0-4 ATS before playing Houston
Eastern Michigan -- 7-0 ATS in last Road Game, 1-5 ATS off a SU Dog win
Florida -- 11-2 ATS Home off non-Conference Play, 0-5 ATS at Home off back-to-back Road Games
Florida Atlantic -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS after playing Troy, 0-4 ATS before playing Florida Int
Florida International -- 8-1 ATS after scoring 35 or more points, 0-6 ATS after playing Arkansas State
Florida State -- 8-0 ATS in Bowl Games, 0-6 ATS before playing Clemson
Fresno State -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS with Rest, 2-10 ATS at Home after allowing 35 or more points
Georgia -- 6-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 1-5 ATS before playing Ole Miss
Georgia Tech -- 7-1 ATS after playing Virginia, 0-8 ATS on the Road vs opponents off a SU Dog win
Hawaii -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS on the Road off a SU Fav loss, Home team is 0-7 ATS in Fresno State series
Houston -- New Head Coach, Road team is 5-1 ATS in East Carolina series, 0-4 ATS after scoring 3 or less points
Idaho -- 7-1 ATS as Dogs less than 9 points, 1-8 ATS as Double Digit Favs
Illinois -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS before playing Minnesota, 1-9 ATS as Field Goal Favs or greater in the first of back-to-back Home Games
Indiana -- 5-1 ATS after Playing Illinois, 2-13 ATS before playing Purdue
Iowa -- 11-0 ATS before playing Ind, 0-10 ATS as Double Digit Road Favs
Iowa State -- Road team is 6-0 ATS in Texas series, 0-4 ATS vs below avg opponents
Kansas -- New Head coach, 10-0 ATS at Home versus below avg opponents, 1-10 ATS after playing Kansas State
Kansas State -- 5-0 ATS after playing Texas Tech, 1-6 ATS as Road Favs of 5 or greater points
Kent State -- 4-0 ATS after playing Bowling Green, 2-12 ATS in non-Conference Play
Kentucky -- 6-1 ATS before playing Georgia, 1-4 ATS after playing Georgia
UL-Lafayette -- 6-0 ATS off non-Conference Play, 1-4 ATS with Rest in Conference Play
UL-Monroe -- 10-0 ATS of back-to-back SU and ATS losses, 1-5 ATS as Double Digit Favs
LSU -- 7-0 ATS as Dogs off SU and ATS loss, 0-8 ATS at Home vs Ole Miss
Louisiana Tech -- 7-1 ATS as Conference Home Dogs, 7-0 ATS as Road Dogs
Louisville -- 9-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs off a SU win, 1-7 ATS with Rest versus below avg opponents
Marshall -- 5-0 ATS after scoring 10 or less pts, 0-6 ATS as Road Favs > 12 points
Maryland -- 10-1 ATS before playing Virginia, 0-4 ATS with Rest
Memphis -- New Head Coach, 11-0 ATS in last Road Game, 0-4 ATS with Rest
Miami -- 6-1 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games, 1-12 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS wins
Miami OH -- 5-1 ATS on Weekdays, 0-6 ATS after playing Bowling Green
Michigan -- 5-0 ATS before playing Minnesota, 4-8 ATS as Road Dogs
Michigan State -- 11-2 ATS vs better than avg opponents, 4-1 ATS after playing Michigan
MTSU -- 7-0 ATS off a SU Dog win, 1-8 ATS after playing Troy
Minnesota -- 6-1 ATS as Double Digit Favs, 0-4 ATS before playing Michigan
Mississippi -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS after playing Georgia, 0-7 ATS as Road Favs off a SU win
Mississippi State -- 6-1 ATS as Favs with Revenge, 2-9 ATS after playing Auburn
Missouri -- 43-3 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road, 6-10 ATS as Home Favs
Navy -- 22-8 ATS as Road Dogs, 0-6 ATS off a SU Dog win
Nebraska -- 7-1 ATS as Road Favs <10 pts, 0-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back Home Games
Nevada -- 10-0 ATS at Home in Conference Play, Fav in Fresno State series is 1-6 ATS
New Mexico -- New Head Coach, Road team in New Mexico State series is 4-0 ATS, 0-4 ATS before playing New Mexico State
New Mexico State -- 5-0 ATS with Rest, 0-13 ATS at Home vs opponents with Revenge
North Carolina -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS as Home Dogs vs better than avg Conference opponents, 0-5 ATS versus NC State
North Carolina State -- 5-0 ATS after playing Florida State, 1-4 ATS after playing North Carolina
North Texas -- 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU wins, 0-8 ATS after playing Florida Atlantic
Northern Illinois -- 5-1 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 1-7 ATS after playing W. Michigan
Northwestern -- 15-2 ATS before playing Michigan, 0-5 ATS before playing Iowa
Notre Dame -- 5-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back Road Games, 1-7 ATS after playing Navy
Ohio State -- New Head Coach, 10-0 ATS with Revenge, 1-5 ATS after playing Wisconsin
Ohio U -- 6-0 ATS after playing Akron, 2-10 ATS off non-Conference SU and ATS loss
Oklahoma -- 8-0 ATS after playing Texas Tech, Home team is 1-6 ATS in Baylor series
Oklahoma State -- 4-0 ATS before playing Baylor, 0-4 ATS as Home Dogs
Oregon -- 24-13 ATS as Home Favorites, 1-7 ATS before playing Oregon State
Oregon State -- 9-1 ATS after playing Washington State, 0-7 ATS in Conference openers
Penn State -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS after playing Illinois, 2-10 ATS as Road Dogs
Pittsburgh -- New Head Coach, 8-0 ATS off a SU Dog win, 1-8 ATS as Favs >21.5 pts
Purdue -- 9-3 ATS versus Minnesota, 0-5 ATS after playing Ohio State
Rice -- 26-4 ATS as Home Dogs in Conference Play, 7-16 ATS as Road Dogs
Rutgers -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS in second of back-to-back Road games, 5-11 ATS as Home Favs
San Diego State -- 7-1 ATS as non-Conference Favs >3,5 pts, 1-9 ATS before playing Air Force
San Jose State -- 6-0 ATS as Road Favs off a Double Digit SU win, 1-6 ATS with Rest
SMU -- 6-1 ATS before playing Rice, 0-8 ATS before playing Tulsa
South Carolina -- 8-0 ATS at Home off a Double Digit ATS loss, 1-5 ATS after playing Vanderbilt
South Florida -- 6-0 ATS in last Road game, 1-6 ATS after playing Syracuse
Southern Mississippi -- New Head Coach, 9-2 ATS vs East Carolina, 0-4 ATS before playing Memphis
Stanford -- 7-0 ATS before playing Oregon State, 1-5 ATS off a SU Dog win
Syracuse -- 6-1 ATS with Rest, 1-5 ATS after playing Rutgers
TCU -- 4-0 ATS at Home in Conference Play, 0-5 ATS off SU Dog win vs below avg opponents
Temple -- 11-1 ATS as Home Dogs, 1-6 ATS on Weekdays
Tennessee -- Road team is 13-2 ATS in South Carolina series, 0-7 ATS as Home Dogs
Texas -- 5-1 ATS with Rest, 1-4 ATS after allowing >34.5 pts
Texas A&M -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS versus La Tech, 2-42 ATS when they lose on the Road
Texas Tech -- 12-1 ATS before playing Texas, 1-5 ATS as Home Favs
Toledo -- New Head Coach, Home team is 11-2 ATS in Bowling Green series, 2-9 ATS on the Road vs better than avg non-Conference opponents
Troy -- 5-0 ATS at Home vs better than avg opponents, 0-8 ATS before playing North Texas
Tulane -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts, 0-8 ATS versus Houston
Tulsa -- 7-0 ATS on the Road in Conference Play, 0-5 ATS versus the Big Twelve
UCLA -- New Head Coach,Home team is 8-1 ATS in Arizona series, 1-8 ATS as Road Dogs <15.5 pts
UNLV -- 7-2 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-7 ATS after playing Nevada
USC -- 6-1 ATS versus Cal, 1-5 ATS before playing Stanford
Utah -- 5-0 ATS at Utah State, 1-6 ATS on the Road vs the Pac 12
Utah State -- 6-1 ATS after playing Utah, 1-6 ATS after scoring >34.5 pts
UTEP -- 5-0 ATS versus Smu, 0-8 ATS after playing Tulsa
Vanderbilt -- 5-1 ATS before playing Auburn, 3-7 ATS as Road Dogs
Virginia -- 9-1 ATS on the Road off back-to-back ATS losses, 0-4 ATS versus Duke
Virginia Tech -- 22-3 ATS as Road Favs of eight or less points, 0-5 ATS as Home Favs
Wake Forest -- 8-1 ATS after playing Boston College, 0-7 ATS in 2nd of back-to-back Road games
Washington -- 5-0 ATS with Rest, 0-7 ATS after playing Usc
Washington State -- New Head Coach, 9-2 ATS after playing Cal, 0-7 ATS as Home Favs <10.5 pts
West Virginia -- 11-0 ATS as Conference Dogs of two or more points, 2-11 ATS Home vs opponents off a Double Digit SU loss
Western Kentucky -- 9-0 ATS covers in a row, 2-8 ATS Home off non-Conference Play
Western Michigan -- Road team is 6-1 ATS in Ball State series, 0-5 ATS before playing Eastern Michigan
Wisconsin -- 6-0 ATS before playing Indiana, 1-7 ATS after playing Purdue
Wyoming -- 5-0 ATS as Dogs of a Touchdown or less, 2-15 ATS vs opponents with Revenge
Here is a look before the 2012 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:
Arizona -- 5-1 ATS before Seattle, 4-1 ATS as Dogs vs NFC North, 0-5 ATS a MNF Favs, 0-4 ATS after playing Seattle
Atlanta -- 6-1 ATS before playing Tampa Bay, 8-0 ATS after scoring 10 or less points, 0-3 ATS at New Orleans, 1-6 ATS at Home vs Giants
Baltimore -- 9-1 ATS with Rest, 6-0 ATS as Division Dogs, 1-4 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 2-8 ATS off MNF
Buffalo -- Visitor in Jets Series is 8-1 ATS, 4-0 ATS as Favs with Rest, 1-6 ATS after playing New England, 1-4 ATS before Bye
Carolina -- 8-1 ATS after allowing at least 35 points, 10-1 ATS as Home Dogs > a TouchDown, 1-5 ATS before Bye, 0-4 ATS after playing Tampa Bay
Chicago -- 9-2 ATS after playing Minnesota, 7-1 ATS as Road Favs off a SU Dog win, 2-8 ATS as MNF Favs, 0-5 ATS before playing Minnesota
Cincinnati -- 12-3 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 6-1 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts, 0-6 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 4-14 ATS as Home Favs
Cleveland -- 6-1 ATS at Home versus AFC East, 6-1 ATS as Road Favs, 0-5 ATS at Home vs non-Conference opponents, 1-5 ATS before playing Cincinnati at Home
Dallas -- 7-1 ATS with Rest, 8-2 ATS at Home vs NFC West, 16-127 ATS when they lose Straight Up, 1-5 ATS off Division Home game
Denver -- 8-1 ATS in 1st of back-to-back Road games, 10-2 ATS with Rest vs better than avg opponents, 1-12 ATS as Favs > six points, 0-6 ATS in 2nd of back-to-back Road games
Detroit -- 5-1 ATS with Rest vs better than avg opponents, 8-2 ATS Dogs off Division Play, 1-9 ATS on the Road off non-Conference Play, 1-6 ATS in Division Play after scoring >34.5 pts
Green Bay -- 9-1 ATS before playing Minnesota, 7-0 ATS with Rest, 2-8 ATS versus NFC South, 1-6 ATS as Road Favs >6 pts
Houston -- 7-0 ATS after playing Jacksonville, 4-0 ATS after scoring <10 points, 1-5 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 0-4 ATS vs AFC West
Indianapolis -- New Head Coach, 8-2 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 14-0 ATS as Division Home Dogs >4.5 pts, 0-7 ATS as Favs in last Home Game, 1-9 ATS on the Road off a SU Fav loss
Jacksonville -- New Head Coach, 16-4 ATS before playing Tennessee, 5-1 ATS before Bye Week, 1-5 ATS after playing Indianapolis, 1-5 ATS vs upper echelon opponents
Kansas City -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS second of back-to-back Road Games, 8-0 ATS as non-Division Favs >7.5 pts, 0-10 ATS as Division Favs, 0-8 ATS vs AFC East
Miami -- New Head Coach, 13-1 ATS as non-Division Dogs >6.5 pts, 5-1 ATS on the Road vs AFC South, 1-8 ATS after playing the Jets, 0-7 ATS as Home Favs >6.5 pts
Minnesota -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS at Home vs San Francisco, 4-0 ATS as Favs with Rest, 2-10 ATS as Favs before playing Green Bay, 0-4 ATS vs opponents with Rest
New England -- 10-0 ATS as non-Conference Favs of less than 6.5 pts, 9-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 1-7 ATS as Favs off back-to-back SU losses, 2-10 ATS as Favs >11 pts
New Orleans -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS as Division Road Favs <5.5 pts, 5-1 ATS as non-Division Dogs six or greater points, 0-5 ATS as Div Favs >10.5 pts, 1-5 ATS before playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants -- 12-2 ATS after playing Washington, 11-2 ATS as Favs vs NFC West, 1-6 ATS as Div Favs >3.5 pts, 1-4 ATS before Bye
NY Jets -- 5-1 ATS after playing Buffalo, 5-1 ATS before Bye, 0-7 ATS as non-Conference Dogs of at least four points, 2-8 ATS vs non-Conference rivals on Road
Oakland -- New Head Coach, Road team in Kansas City series is 11-1 ATS, 10-1 ATS on the Road before Bye, 0-5 ATS before playing San Diego, 0-9 ATS with Rest
Philadelphia -- 10-0 ATS after playing Washington, 7-0 ATS after scoring 10 or less points, 0-5 ATS vs NFC North, 0-4 ATS after playing Giants
Pittsburgh -- 6-1 ATS as Dogs off a DD SU loss, 4-0 ATS after playing Baltimore, 1-9 ATS as Favs before playing Cincinnati, 0-5 ATS after playing Cincinnati
St. Louis -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS before playing Arizona, 11-0 ATS after scoring 35 or > points, 2-11 ATS after playing a Division Road Game, 1-8 ATS after playing San Francisco
San Diego -- 5-0 ATS as Conference Home Dogs, 9-1 ATS after playing Denver, 1-10 ATS as Favs >10 pts, 0-7 ATS on the Road vs AFC East
San Francisco -- 12-0 ATS as beaten Favs, 5-0 ATS on MNF, 0-6 ATS before playing MNF, 3-12 ATS as Road Favs
Seattle -- 5-0 ATS on MNF, 11-2 ATS at Home in non-Conference Play, 1-7 ATS when the Total is >45.5, 1-5 ATS before MNF
Tampa Bay -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS with Rest, 7-1 ATS as Div Favs, 5-16 ATS at Home, 0-4 ATS after playing New Orleans
Tennessee -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 5-0 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 0-5 ATS after playing Indianapolis, 0-6 ATS off a Double Digit ATS win
Washington -- 10-2 ATS before playing Giants, 5-0 ATS after playing Dallas, 0-7 ATS as non-Conference Home Favs, 0-4 ATS with Rest
2012 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips
Emotion - The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as Frank Beamer, Paul Johnson, Tom O'Brien, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.
Sandwich Games - Be careful of 'sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.
If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful! Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the 'sandwich' game, laying way too much 'wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement - Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move 1/2 to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for 'middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% 'juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2012 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
