Cent should get it hands down, I was thinking about taking that one too, but, for some reason I trust them to give Timberlake the honors more than Cent, as Efanesensesnesnese has an outside shot at best new artist IMO. But still -200 isn't bad when you've got the guy with the #1 record of the year.
adding: Hey Yah, record of the year:
"Derbyites,
Here are the predix of Chris Willman of Entertainment Weekly. Please pipe in below with your reax!
**********
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Crazy in Love," Beyoncé featuring Jay-Z
"Where Is the Love?," Black Eyed Peas and Justin Timberlake
"Clocks," Coldplay
"Lose Yourself," Eminem
X - "Hey Ya!" OutKast
A win here for OutKast is a little less certain than a victory in the Best Album category, but I still believe they’ll sweep the top two awards. Does anyone know anyone who doesn’t love “Hey Ya!”? “Crazy in Love” was just about as ubiquitous—and, indeed, lovable—but resistance to a record that relies so heavily on a sample as its hook will cost it some votes. “Lose Yourself” would have a shot if it were a little fresher, but since it won the Oscar almost a year ago, the Recording Academy would really look like they were playing catchup if they went with it now. “Where is the Love?” has zero chance. “Clocks” could be a dark horse, if Academy members who aren’t into hip-hop, rap, or R&B coalesce around the one traditionally beautiful tune here. But I think Coldplay fans are more passionate about the band than about any one single in particular, so I’m not ready to go out on that limb.
*************
SONG OF THE YEAR
(Songwriter's Award)
"Beautiful," Linda Perry (Christina Aguilera)
X - "Dance with My Father," Richard Marx and Luther Vandross (Luther Vandross)
"I'm with You," Avril Lavigne and The Matrix (Avril Lavigne)
"Keep Me in Your Heart," Jorge Calderón and Warren Zevon (Warren Zevon)
"Lose Yourself," J. Bass, M. Mathers and L. Resto (Eminem)
A tough one. I’m going with “Dance With My Father,” which appeals to more of the old-school Academy members, whereas younger voters may split over the other choices. Obviously it has a sentimental appeal because of Vandross’ predicament. So does Zevon, but the late werewolf is up in a lot of other categories and the members may feel he’s sufficiently rewarded there. Plus, it’s pretty difficult for a song that wasn’t a hit in any format to win such a crucial category. “Lose Yourself” is a long shot because some older voters—even ones with a newfound appreciation for Eminem—have a hard time thinking of rapping as songwriting, in a category where they might want to reward the most melodic tune. I have a weakness for “I’m With You,” myself, but a lot of music pros consider Avril unseasoned or snotty and harbor a bias against hired hands like the Matrix. “Beautiful” is self-aggrandizing crap in the guise of self-empowerment, which probably gives it a shot, I hate to say.
************
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Under Construction, Missy Elliott
Fallen, Evanescence
X - Speakerboxxx/The Love Below, OutKast
Justified, Justin Timberlake
Elephant, the White Stripes
This is usually a tough category to predict, but for once, I think it’s easy—far easier than a lot of the lesser categories. It’s just about impossible to imagine OutKast losing here. Yes, a small amount of the R&B/hip-hop vote will be siphoned off by Missy, and a portion of the cool contingent will split off and vote for the White Stripes. But those factors will be negligible. It’s the bestselling album of the fourth quarter (and will ultimately be the second-biggest seller to have been released in 2003, behind only 50 Cent). It will almost certainly win the Village Voice critics’ poll. When it picks up this Grammy, the sales/critics/award triple play will be complete. Justin will get his due in other, lesser categories, and not even his partisans will claim he was robbed here. Evanescence have the second-most commercially successful album here, and I’m sure some voters would like in theory to reward a rock band with a female singer (remember those?), but their appeal is far from multi-generational or multi-genre-ational.
*********
BEST NEW ARTIST
Evanescence
50 Cent
Fountains of Wayne
Heather Headley
Sean Paul
There’s some legitimate suspense here. I honestly think it’s between 50 Cent and Fountains of Wayne, with Evanescence also having a shot. 50 Cent had easily the year’s biggest album, and you know for damn sure the Academy likes that in a freshman act. But, of course, there will be a sizable anti-gangsta, anti-misogyny, anti-cap-in-your-ass contingent. Who might these older or more sensitive voters rally around? Fountains is clearly the thinking man’s choice here—and they just happen to be my favorite band that’s come along since U2, so I’m a little biased in handicapping their chances. But they’ve sold less than 300,000 copies so far, less than a third of what, say, Evanescence has done, so one can’t assume a huge degree of familiarity among the Academy’s lazier listeners. They’re also on their third album, the first one having been released on Atlantic in ’96, so anyone who’s actually a stickler for new artists being NEW may have a bone to pick… though that didn’t hurt Shelby Lynne. Evanescence may have the greatest cross-section here of sales and non-threatening-ness, but I just wonder if they inspire deep amounts of passion, as opposed to admiration, with an older audience. Their cofounder and coleader having recently quit the band may also raise a few questions about their longterm viability, and these days Academy members like to pick new artists with a shot of still being around a few years hence. Sean Paul and Heather Headly can feel honored just to have been nominated, as they say.
******************
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE:
X - "Beautiful," Christina Aguilera
"Miss Independent," Kelly Clarkson
"White Flag," Dido
"I'm with You," Avril Lavigne
"Fallen," Sarah McLachlan
This is the toughest category of all. If it were up to me, I’d go with “I’m With You,” but I’m not the Recording Academy, whose members, I think, probably feel a bit suspicious still about how much of an artist Avril really is. It’s a great song, though—underrated, if you can call a hit that big undervalued. And she really turns in a performance, saving all her fire for that last stanza. “White Flag” has an interesting kind of paranoid intrigue to it, but if you really are just considering the vocal here, it’s not as if Dido is covering a lot of range. Kelly and Christina may split the showboat vote. Sarah McLachlan is beloved by the Academy’s core constituencies, but has anybody really heard that song, and if so, do they remember it? Still, she could win on name value alone. Hell, it’s a complete tossup, but since Tom O’Neil has a gun to my head, I’ll flip a five-sided coin and decide it will be… Aguilera. Much as hearing that song makes me wish someone would pull the trigger.
****************
BEST R&B SONG
"Comin' from Where I'm From," Mark Batson and Anthony Hamilton (Anthony Hamilton)
X - "Crazy in Love," Shawn Carter, Rich Harrison, Beyoncé Knowles and Eugene Record (Beyoncé featuring Jay-Z)
"Dance with My Father," Richard Marx and Luther Vandross (Luther Vandross)
"Danger," Erykah Badu, J. Poyser, B.R. Smith and R.C. Williams (Erykah Badu)
"Rock Wit U (Awww Baby)," A. Douglas, I. Lorenzo and A. Parker (Ashanti)
It’s Luther or Beyonce, clearly. And “Crazy in Love” is just undeniable—even if, as I said under another category, there will be some voter resistance to rewarding a tune that is so sample-reliant for its melody, particularly in a songwriting (as opposed to performance) category. The Badu song was a minor hit but the album stiffed, and Hamilton will also suffer from a lack of exposure. Not so Ashanti, but one has to assume she was put up as the joke candidate here.
****************
BEST MALE RAP SOLO PERFORMANCE:
"Pump It Up," Joe Budden
"Lose Yourself," Eminem
X - "In Da Club," 50 Cent
"Stand Up," Ludacris
"Get Busy," Sean Paul
It’s mentor vs. protégé, Eminem vs. 50 Cent. Could go either way, but I think the kid will get it. “Lose Yourself” will suffer from having been out for, what, 10 years or so now. This will be a way to reward the biggest success story of the year—50, that is—by giving an award to his most innocuous song, as opposed to celebrating the far more controversial album. Still, you can’t count out that a lot of older voters probably heard Eminem for the first time when they went to the movies and decided he was adorable enough to merit a kiss-and-make-up Grammy after all.
**************
BEST TRADITIONAL POP VOCAL ALBUM:
A Wonderful World, Tony Bennett and k.d. lang
The Last Concert, Rosemary Clooney
X - Bette Midler Sings the Rosemary Clooney Songbook, Bette Midler
As Time Goes By...The Great American Songbook: Volume II, Rod Stewart
The Movie Album, Barbra Streisand
As for what it should be, there’s no contest here: Clooney’s live album, which indeed documented her final appearances, was pretty wonderful. And it will stand little or no chance against Midler’s tribute to her, which actually sold some copies. Rod had by far the biggest hit of any of these, and may win just for having seemed to revive the genre, but I’d like to think that won’t happen. I’d also like to think that Kelly Osbourne will take singing lessons and R. Kelly will take up with women his own age, so don’t listen to me.
"Derbyites,
Here are the predix of Chris Willman of Entertainment Weekly. Please pipe in below with your reax!
**********
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Crazy in Love," Beyoncé featuring Jay-Z
"Where Is the Love?," Black Eyed Peas and Justin Timberlake
"Clocks," Coldplay
"Lose Yourself," Eminem
X - "Hey Ya!" OutKast
A win here for OutKast is a little less certain than a victory in the Best Album category, but I still believe they’ll sweep the top two awards. Does anyone know anyone who doesn’t love “Hey Ya!”? “Crazy in Love” was just about as ubiquitous—and, indeed, lovable—but resistance to a record that relies so heavily on a sample as its hook will cost it some votes. “Lose Yourself” would have a shot if it were a little fresher, but since it won the Oscar almost a year ago, the Recording Academy would really look like they were playing catchup if they went with it now. “Where is the Love?” has zero chance. “Clocks” could be a dark horse, if Academy members who aren’t into hip-hop, rap, or R&B coalesce around the one traditionally beautiful tune here. But I think Coldplay fans are more passionate about the band than about any one single in particular, so I’m not ready to go out on that limb.
*************
SONG OF THE YEAR
(Songwriter's Award)
"Beautiful," Linda Perry (Christina Aguilera)
X - "Dance with My Father," Richard Marx and Luther Vandross (Luther Vandross)
"I'm with You," Avril Lavigne and The Matrix (Avril Lavigne)
"Keep Me in Your Heart," Jorge Calderón and Warren Zevon (Warren Zevon)
"Lose Yourself," J. Bass, M. Mathers and L. Resto (Eminem)
A tough one. I’m going with “Dance With My Father,” which appeals to more of the old-school Academy members, whereas younger voters may split over the other choices. Obviously it has a sentimental appeal because of Vandross’ predicament. So does Zevon, but the late werewolf is up in a lot of other categories and the members may feel he’s sufficiently rewarded there. Plus, it’s pretty difficult for a song that wasn’t a hit in any format to win such a crucial category. “Lose Yourself” is a long shot because some older voters—even ones with a newfound appreciation for Eminem—have a hard time thinking of rapping as songwriting, in a category where they might want to reward the most melodic tune. I have a weakness for “I’m With You,” myself, but a lot of music pros consider Avril unseasoned or snotty and harbor a bias against hired hands like the Matrix. “Beautiful” is self-aggrandizing crap in the guise of self-empowerment, which probably gives it a shot, I hate to say.
************
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Under Construction, Missy Elliott
Fallen, Evanescence
X - Speakerboxxx/The Love Below, OutKast
Justified, Justin Timberlake
Elephant, the White Stripes
This is usually a tough category to predict, but for once, I think it’s easy—far easier than a lot of the lesser categories. It’s just about impossible to imagine OutKast losing here. Yes, a small amount of the R&B/hip-hop vote will be siphoned off by Missy, and a portion of the cool contingent will split off and vote for the White Stripes. But those factors will be negligible. It’s the bestselling album of the fourth quarter (and will ultimately be the second-biggest seller to have been released in 2003, behind only 50 Cent). It will almost certainly win the Village Voice critics’ poll. When it picks up this Grammy, the sales/critics/award triple play will be complete. Justin will get his due in other, lesser categories, and not even his partisans will claim he was robbed here. Evanescence have the second-most commercially successful album here, and I’m sure some voters would like in theory to reward a rock band with a female singer (remember those?), but their appeal is far from multi-generational or multi-genre-ational.
*********
BEST NEW ARTIST
Evanescence
50 Cent
Fountains of Wayne
Heather Headley
Sean Paul
There’s some legitimate suspense here. I honestly think it’s between 50 Cent and Fountains of Wayne, with Evanescence also having a shot. 50 Cent had easily the year’s biggest album, and you know for damn sure the Academy likes that in a freshman act. But, of course, there will be a sizable anti-gangsta, anti-misogyny, anti-cap-in-your-ass contingent. Who might these older or more sensitive voters rally around? Fountains is clearly the thinking man’s choice here—and they just happen to be my favorite band that’s come along since U2, so I’m a little biased in handicapping their chances. But they’ve sold less than 300,000 copies so far, less than a third of what, say, Evanescence has done, so one can’t assume a huge degree of familiarity among the Academy’s lazier listeners. They’re also on their third album, the first one having been released on Atlantic in ’96, so anyone who’s actually a stickler for new artists being NEW may have a bone to pick… though that didn’t hurt Shelby Lynne. Evanescence may have the greatest cross-section here of sales and non-threatening-ness, but I just wonder if they inspire deep amounts of passion, as opposed to admiration, with an older audience. Their cofounder and coleader having recently quit the band may also raise a few questions about their longterm viability, and these days Academy members like to pick new artists with a shot of still being around a few years hence. Sean Paul and Heather Headly can feel honored just to have been nominated, as they say.
******************
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE:
X - "Beautiful," Christina Aguilera
"Miss Independent," Kelly Clarkson
"White Flag," Dido
"I'm with You," Avril Lavigne
"Fallen," Sarah McLachlan
This is the toughest category of all. If it were up to me, I’d go with “I’m With You,” but I’m not the Recording Academy, whose members, I think, probably feel a bit suspicious still about how much of an artist Avril really is. It’s a great song, though—underrated, if you can call a hit that big undervalued. And she really turns in a performance, saving all her fire for that last stanza. “White Flag” has an interesting kind of paranoid intrigue to it, but if you really are just considering the vocal here, it’s not as if Dido is covering a lot of range. Kelly and Christina may split the showboat vote. Sarah McLachlan is beloved by the Academy’s core constituencies, but has anybody really heard that song, and if so, do they remember it? Still, she could win on name value alone. Hell, it’s a complete tossup, but since Tom O’Neil has a gun to my head, I’ll flip a five-sided coin and decide it will be… Aguilera. Much as hearing that song makes me wish someone would pull the trigger.
****************
BEST R&B SONG
"Comin' from Where I'm From," Mark Batson and Anthony Hamilton (Anthony Hamilton)
X - "Crazy in Love," Shawn Carter, Rich Harrison, Beyoncé Knowles and Eugene Record (Beyoncé featuring Jay-Z)
"Dance with My Father," Richard Marx and Luther Vandross (Luther Vandross)
"Danger," Erykah Badu, J. Poyser, B.R. Smith and R.C. Williams (Erykah Badu)
"Rock Wit U (Awww Baby)," A. Douglas, I. Lorenzo and A. Parker (Ashanti)
It’s Luther or Beyonce, clearly. And “Crazy in Love” is just undeniable—even if, as I said under another category, there will be some voter resistance to rewarding a tune that is so sample-reliant for its melody, particularly in a songwriting (as opposed to performance) category. The Badu song was a minor hit but the album stiffed, and Hamilton will also suffer from a lack of exposure. Not so Ashanti, but one has to assume she was put up as the joke candidate here.
****************
BEST MALE RAP SOLO PERFORMANCE:
"Pump It Up," Joe Budden
"Lose Yourself," Eminem
X - "In Da Club," 50 Cent
"Stand Up," Ludacris
"Get Busy," Sean Paul
It’s mentor vs. protégé, Eminem vs. 50 Cent. Could go either way, but I think the kid will get it. “Lose Yourself” will suffer from having been out for, what, 10 years or so now. This will be a way to reward the biggest success story of the year—50, that is—by giving an award to his most innocuous song, as opposed to celebrating the far more controversial album. Still, you can’t count out that a lot of older voters probably heard Eminem for the first time when they went to the movies and decided he was adorable enough to merit a kiss-and-make-up Grammy after all.
**************
BEST TRADITIONAL POP VOCAL ALBUM:
A Wonderful World, Tony Bennett and k.d. lang
The Last Concert, Rosemary Clooney
X - Bette Midler Sings the Rosemary Clooney Songbook, Bette Midler
As Time Goes By...The Great American Songbook: Volume II, Rod Stewart
The Movie Album, Barbra Streisand
As for what it should be, there’s no contest here: Clooney’s live album, which indeed documented her final appearances, was pretty wonderful. And it will stand little or no chance against Midler’s tribute to her, which actually sold some copies. Rod had by far the biggest hit of any of these, and may win just for having seemed to revive the genre, but I’d like to think that won’t happen. I’d also like to think that Kelly Osbourne will take singing lessons and R. Kelly will take up with women his own age, so don’t listen to me.
