Between Monday and the end of February there will be 5,772 NCAA Basketball games played.
Here are a couple of profitable trends that I use to help navigate my way through the betting season.
Bet on a home underdog coming off a straight up victory as an underdog in their previous game.
Past three seasons: 59.04% win rate.
Confidence + Motivation + Momentum = Upset.
Any team that fits this situation has this equation working for them.
Confidence is produced when the team gets a victory as an underdog.
Motivation is created by the home court atmosphere.
Momentum is present from the previous victory.
Teams in this spot also present major value against the line. Nine times out of ten the home underdog will be playing far better than the line indicates. A one game span is seldom enough time for the betting public to make proper perception adjustments. This results in the line being propelled up towards the road favorite.
When betting this situation, I wait as long as possible to get the best price available.
Bet against a team following a game where they beat a team with a higher ranking.
Past three seasons: 57.66% win rate.
Under Achieving Team + Upset Victory + Major Emotional High = Let Down.
This is a twist off the classic unranked team favored vs. a ranked opponent system.
Rarely does the fade team respond with an effort equivalent to that of their previous game. Off a major victory the target on the fade team becomes considerably bigger. This means the play team often puts forth an effort much stronger than expected or indicated by the line.
Like the first system, the line almost always moves in the trends favor. A team off a major victory gains a bigger public following then normal. Many times the major game played prior is on national television. This provides the betting public with a false perception and makes the fade team overvalued and over priced.
I like to wait till the last minute to play teams fitting this trend.
Extreme Totals –
Play Over any total of 155 or higher when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.
Play Under any total of 115 or lower when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.
Past three seasons: 56.69% win rate.
Common Strength + Common Strength = One Dimensional Outcome.
In order for a total to be extreme high or low, you must have exceptionally offensive or defensive minded teams playing against each other.
College athletes have short term memories. When a team that is “extreme” gets a victory, it is always due to playing to their particular strength. Coming off a victory, players tend to go with what worked last game. When matched up against an opponent with a common strength, the game becomes one dimensional. I find each team’s strength gets enhanced by the mirror image opponent.
The only factor working against this trend is line movement. Oddsmakers are tremendously sensitive with extreme totals. When money comes in in favor of the extreme, the line responds instantly.
When playing extremes, I lock my bet in as early as possible to ensure the best price.
Here are a couple of profitable trends that I use to help navigate my way through the betting season.
Bet on a home underdog coming off a straight up victory as an underdog in their previous game.
Past three seasons: 59.04% win rate.
Confidence + Motivation + Momentum = Upset.
Any team that fits this situation has this equation working for them.
Confidence is produced when the team gets a victory as an underdog.
Motivation is created by the home court atmosphere.
Momentum is present from the previous victory.
Teams in this spot also present major value against the line. Nine times out of ten the home underdog will be playing far better than the line indicates. A one game span is seldom enough time for the betting public to make proper perception adjustments. This results in the line being propelled up towards the road favorite.
When betting this situation, I wait as long as possible to get the best price available.
Bet against a team following a game where they beat a team with a higher ranking.
Past three seasons: 57.66% win rate.
Under Achieving Team + Upset Victory + Major Emotional High = Let Down.
This is a twist off the classic unranked team favored vs. a ranked opponent system.
Rarely does the fade team respond with an effort equivalent to that of their previous game. Off a major victory the target on the fade team becomes considerably bigger. This means the play team often puts forth an effort much stronger than expected or indicated by the line.
Like the first system, the line almost always moves in the trends favor. A team off a major victory gains a bigger public following then normal. Many times the major game played prior is on national television. This provides the betting public with a false perception and makes the fade team overvalued and over priced.
I like to wait till the last minute to play teams fitting this trend.
Extreme Totals –
Play Over any total of 155 or higher when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.
Play Under any total of 115 or lower when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.
Past three seasons: 56.69% win rate.
Common Strength + Common Strength = One Dimensional Outcome.
In order for a total to be extreme high or low, you must have exceptionally offensive or defensive minded teams playing against each other.
College athletes have short term memories. When a team that is “extreme” gets a victory, it is always due to playing to their particular strength. Coming off a victory, players tend to go with what worked last game. When matched up against an opponent with a common strength, the game becomes one dimensional. I find each team’s strength gets enhanced by the mirror image opponent.
The only factor working against this trend is line movement. Oddsmakers are tremendously sensitive with extreme totals. When money comes in in favor of the extreme, the line responds instantly.
When playing extremes, I lock my bet in as early as possible to ensure the best price.
