Going to come down to special teams...
Both teams are evenly matched. Great defenses and smash mouth running games. Running game Pittsburgh slight. Passing game NE. Run defense Pittsburgh slight. Pass defense Pittsburgh. Special teams NE. Coaching close, NE slight edge. QB's, Brady definite edge. Homefield Pittsburgh edge. TO and Penalty Pittsburgh slight.
I believe this is the best defense NE offense has ever faced in the playoffs. My one worry is Pittsburgh corners!! Are they good enough to cover NE's wrs. Pressure is the key for Pittsburgh.
In 2001, AFC Championship game Pittsburgh defense played good enough to win. If I'm not mistaken they might have given up 10 points. It was Pittsburgh special teams that cost them that game. Troy Brown punt return for a TD and the block FG he returned for a TD was the difference. NE won 24-17.
If Pittsburgh's stuggles against the Jets is the reason you think NE is going to win. Remember last year, NE beat Tennessee 17-14 in the divisional round. They probably should have lost that game, but good teams find a way to win. Pittsburgh's game against the Jets looked very similar to that game. Everyone jumped off NE last year after that game against Tennessee, and jumped on Indy to beat them. Same thing this year, everyone is on NE to beat Pittsburgh.
No respect this week for the Steelers. That should have Pittsburgh fuming inside, just like it did NE last week against Indy. You go 16-1 and beat NE 34-20 already this year and you are a 3 point under dog at home. Oh, but Cory Dillon didn't play. That is true that is why this game will be a lot closer.
If Pittsburgh plays excellent special teams this week they will win!!! This is the key.!!! This will be a game of field position played close to the vest. Turnovers will be crucial. I believe Roth will play a lot better this week, just a gut feeling. Once again Burress is the key for Pittsburgh. He has to loosen up NE safeties, if he doesn't NE will crowd the box. I believe this is where NE makes their mistake. Gay and Samuels will not be able to cover Burress and Ward one on one. And Roth will make enough plays to keep NE honest.
Don't want to play against Brady, Bilichick, and NE but I can't give a 16-1 teams three points.
(If a certain person person is on Pittsburgh all bets are off. Won't name names. )