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Football Newsletters Sept 21-25
- Thread starter SportbookGuru
- Start date
Here is just a sample of what you will find each week
Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping
Leaders For 48 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 44 September 22 - 26 No. 4
11 *SOUTH CAROLINA over Troy State
Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTH CAROLINA 41 - Troy State 10
CKO sources report South Carolina players preparing for a top emotional
effort vs. Troy State after disappointing new HC Spurrier with 37-14 setback
vs. Bama. "Darth Visor" laments, "There's no way our fans could be proud of
that performance and effort; we're going to find guys that really want to
play and play all-out effort wise." Expect resolute, superior 'Cocks to
perform up to Spurrier's standards vs. rebuilding Trojan squad that lost too
many talented srs. from LY's surprising 7-5 team, including 10 now in the
NFL. Troy still hasn't found an adequate replacement for record-setting RB
Betterson, so expect USC front 7 to heavily blitz immobile QB Meadows early
and often. On other side, USC's capable QB Mitchell has developed solid
rapport with emerging RS frosh, 6-4 WR Rice (10 grabs last 2 games), and look
for bruising RB Turman to exploit Trojans softened run "D" (allowing 5.3 ypc)
sans injured star LB L. Johnson. Don't put much stock in 'Cocks lackluster
17-7 victory vs. Troy LY, since ultraconservative HC Lou Holtz refused to
throw ball downfield, which is no longer true in Spurrier's 'Cock-and-Fire
attack.
10 *SMU over Tulane
Late Score Forecast:
*SMU 31 - Tulane 20
Wouldn't read too much into SMU's pummeling at A&M. Mustangs were ripe for
the plucking after upsetting TCU, the biggest win for the program since
returning from the "Death Penalty" in late '80s. And superior Aggies had an
extra week to fume over their opening loss at Clemson. Look for top effort
this week from embarrassed, veteran SMU squad returning home and stepping way
down in class. Tulane played with a lot of emotion in its opening loss to
Mississippi State. But being displaced by Hurricane Katrina is not a
positive for Green Wave. Mustangs have more returning starters than any team
in Div. I-A. And their defense matches up well against a Tulane attack that
lacks premium receiving targets of recent editions. SMU offense features two
veteran QBs and an emerging weapon in RS frosh RB DeMyron Martin, who had 118
YR & 3 TDs in win over Horned Frogs.
10 MARYLAND over *Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
MARYLAND 28 - *Wake Forest 20
ACC scouts predict Maryland will rebound this week following back-to-back
losses to Clemson & West Virginia. After all, Terps had a 4th-Q lead vs.
Tigers and trailed Mounties by only 2 late in final period. Insiders say
Ralph Friedgen's young team remains upbeat. And the clever Maryland head
coach has won & covered all 4 meetings with Wake counterpart Jim Grobe, who's
covered just 1 of his last 10 as favorite! A major reason for Terps' success
in series has been their ability to contain Deacons' ground game, limiting
Wake to fewer than 200 YR in 3 of those 4 tilts. And, with ubiquitous sr.
MLB D'Qwell Jackson on patrol and Deacons (only 6 TDP last 1+ seasons) unable
to develop significant aerial threat, TY's clash should hold that form. Much
prefer better balanced Maryland attack. Rapidly-emerging jr. QB Sam
Hollenbach (64%, 579 YP, 4 TDP last 2 games) will find lots of openings in
Wake's suspect 2ndary, which can't match up with NFL-caliber jr. TE Vernon
Davis (11 catches for 298 yards last 2 weeks).
10 PURDUE over *Minnesota
Late Score Forecast:
PURDUE 27 - *Minnesota 20
Things have worked out just swimmingly so far for Minnesota, which has been
able to unleash "special" RB Maroney on an assortment of over-matched foes,
those being Tulsa, Colorado State, and Florida Atlantic. The yards and
points, and even the victory, will be much tougher to gain vs. a veteran
Purdue defense that has given up a total of 32 rushing yards its first two
games. Worse yet for Minny, Joe Tiller and the Boilermakers have been a
major nemesis for the Gophers, winning the last 7 meetings SU and covering
the last six. Moreover, Purdue running much better TY, with top RB Jerod
Void re-joining the track team to gain speed, and elusive QB Brandon Kirsch
working with a big set of new spread-option plays that the Gophers haven't
seen. Purdue lost five games LY-by 3, 2, 3, 2 & 4 points-four of them vs.
bowl teams! And Minny's early kicking worries not a positive in another
close game.
10 *MIAMI over Carolina
Late Score Forecast:
*MIAMI 19 - Carolina 13
(Sunday, September 25)
Miami is definitely an improved team under new HC Nick Saban. The Miami
defense (just 27 points first 2 games) appears to have regained form that saw
Dolphins allow 18 ppg from 2001-03 before falling back to 22 ppg and a 4-12
SU mark in disastrous '04 campaign. Saban has done a good job filling in
after team had several high-profile defenders depart, evidenced by foes
completing just 53% (6th-lowest in NFL). Respect Carolina team that is also
improved, but Panthers have been a terrible favorite over the last few
seasons (5-15 vs. number), and QB Jake Delhomme has been far from sharp in
first two games (53% on 30 of 57 passing with 3 ints. and just 1 TD pass).
Interestingly, Carolina's first two opponents have had some success going
after Panther CBs Lucas & Gamble, who had 6 ints. each LY, but none thus far.
Also, the Carolina pass rush hasn't put as much pressure on opposing QBs as
HC John Fox would like, and Panthers have just 3 sacks. Carolina's upset of
Patriots serves to distort line and lend value to Miami side, set Panthers up
for possible letdown, and ensure a focused effort from intense Dolphin HC
Saban and his team.
TOTALS: UNDER (43) in New Orleans-Minnesota game-After 12 giveaways first two
games, anticipate a "grim," resolute effort from Moss-less Vikes...UNDER
(37.5) in Carolina-Miami game-Dolphins offense still a work in progress, but
not so Saban's defense (13.5 ppg).
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): LOUISVILLE (-23) at South
Florida-Improved USF has revenge motive, but Louisville offense an virtual
unstoppable dynamo at its own level...TENNESSEE (+6.5) at Lsu-Yes, Tigers
fired up for home debut, but Tennessee hung tight at Florida even facing a
much better QB; prefer to get at least 7 points, however...COLORADO STATE
(-17) vs. Nevada-After a week off to lick their wounds following tough road
losses at Colorado & Minnesota, rested Rams should get their potent aerial
game going vs. Nevada team with no covers last eight on the road...OREGON
STATE (+5) vs. Arizona State-In battle of unbalanced, pass-happy offenses and
vulnerable defenses, home field and the points appears to be substantial
edges...NEW ENGLAND (+3) at Pittsburgh-Embarrassed Pats will have their
"pride up" facing a QB who's unbeaten in regular season (15-0); Belichick's
boys 5-0-1 last 6 when getting points.
Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping
Leaders For 48 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 44 September 22 - 26 No. 4
11 *SOUTH CAROLINA over Troy State
Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTH CAROLINA 41 - Troy State 10
CKO sources report South Carolina players preparing for a top emotional
effort vs. Troy State after disappointing new HC Spurrier with 37-14 setback
vs. Bama. "Darth Visor" laments, "There's no way our fans could be proud of
that performance and effort; we're going to find guys that really want to
play and play all-out effort wise." Expect resolute, superior 'Cocks to
perform up to Spurrier's standards vs. rebuilding Trojan squad that lost too
many talented srs. from LY's surprising 7-5 team, including 10 now in the
NFL. Troy still hasn't found an adequate replacement for record-setting RB
Betterson, so expect USC front 7 to heavily blitz immobile QB Meadows early
and often. On other side, USC's capable QB Mitchell has developed solid
rapport with emerging RS frosh, 6-4 WR Rice (10 grabs last 2 games), and look
for bruising RB Turman to exploit Trojans softened run "D" (allowing 5.3 ypc)
sans injured star LB L. Johnson. Don't put much stock in 'Cocks lackluster
17-7 victory vs. Troy LY, since ultraconservative HC Lou Holtz refused to
throw ball downfield, which is no longer true in Spurrier's 'Cock-and-Fire
attack.
10 *SMU over Tulane
Late Score Forecast:
*SMU 31 - Tulane 20
Wouldn't read too much into SMU's pummeling at A&M. Mustangs were ripe for
the plucking after upsetting TCU, the biggest win for the program since
returning from the "Death Penalty" in late '80s. And superior Aggies had an
extra week to fume over their opening loss at Clemson. Look for top effort
this week from embarrassed, veteran SMU squad returning home and stepping way
down in class. Tulane played with a lot of emotion in its opening loss to
Mississippi State. But being displaced by Hurricane Katrina is not a
positive for Green Wave. Mustangs have more returning starters than any team
in Div. I-A. And their defense matches up well against a Tulane attack that
lacks premium receiving targets of recent editions. SMU offense features two
veteran QBs and an emerging weapon in RS frosh RB DeMyron Martin, who had 118
YR & 3 TDs in win over Horned Frogs.
10 MARYLAND over *Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
MARYLAND 28 - *Wake Forest 20
ACC scouts predict Maryland will rebound this week following back-to-back
losses to Clemson & West Virginia. After all, Terps had a 4th-Q lead vs.
Tigers and trailed Mounties by only 2 late in final period. Insiders say
Ralph Friedgen's young team remains upbeat. And the clever Maryland head
coach has won & covered all 4 meetings with Wake counterpart Jim Grobe, who's
covered just 1 of his last 10 as favorite! A major reason for Terps' success
in series has been their ability to contain Deacons' ground game, limiting
Wake to fewer than 200 YR in 3 of those 4 tilts. And, with ubiquitous sr.
MLB D'Qwell Jackson on patrol and Deacons (only 6 TDP last 1+ seasons) unable
to develop significant aerial threat, TY's clash should hold that form. Much
prefer better balanced Maryland attack. Rapidly-emerging jr. QB Sam
Hollenbach (64%, 579 YP, 4 TDP last 2 games) will find lots of openings in
Wake's suspect 2ndary, which can't match up with NFL-caliber jr. TE Vernon
Davis (11 catches for 298 yards last 2 weeks).
10 PURDUE over *Minnesota
Late Score Forecast:
PURDUE 27 - *Minnesota 20
Things have worked out just swimmingly so far for Minnesota, which has been
able to unleash "special" RB Maroney on an assortment of over-matched foes,
those being Tulsa, Colorado State, and Florida Atlantic. The yards and
points, and even the victory, will be much tougher to gain vs. a veteran
Purdue defense that has given up a total of 32 rushing yards its first two
games. Worse yet for Minny, Joe Tiller and the Boilermakers have been a
major nemesis for the Gophers, winning the last 7 meetings SU and covering
the last six. Moreover, Purdue running much better TY, with top RB Jerod
Void re-joining the track team to gain speed, and elusive QB Brandon Kirsch
working with a big set of new spread-option plays that the Gophers haven't
seen. Purdue lost five games LY-by 3, 2, 3, 2 & 4 points-four of them vs.
bowl teams! And Minny's early kicking worries not a positive in another
close game.
10 *MIAMI over Carolina
Late Score Forecast:
*MIAMI 19 - Carolina 13
(Sunday, September 25)
Miami is definitely an improved team under new HC Nick Saban. The Miami
defense (just 27 points first 2 games) appears to have regained form that saw
Dolphins allow 18 ppg from 2001-03 before falling back to 22 ppg and a 4-12
SU mark in disastrous '04 campaign. Saban has done a good job filling in
after team had several high-profile defenders depart, evidenced by foes
completing just 53% (6th-lowest in NFL). Respect Carolina team that is also
improved, but Panthers have been a terrible favorite over the last few
seasons (5-15 vs. number), and QB Jake Delhomme has been far from sharp in
first two games (53% on 30 of 57 passing with 3 ints. and just 1 TD pass).
Interestingly, Carolina's first two opponents have had some success going
after Panther CBs Lucas & Gamble, who had 6 ints. each LY, but none thus far.
Also, the Carolina pass rush hasn't put as much pressure on opposing QBs as
HC John Fox would like, and Panthers have just 3 sacks. Carolina's upset of
Patriots serves to distort line and lend value to Miami side, set Panthers up
for possible letdown, and ensure a focused effort from intense Dolphin HC
Saban and his team.
TOTALS: UNDER (43) in New Orleans-Minnesota game-After 12 giveaways first two
games, anticipate a "grim," resolute effort from Moss-less Vikes...UNDER
(37.5) in Carolina-Miami game-Dolphins offense still a work in progress, but
not so Saban's defense (13.5 ppg).
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): LOUISVILLE (-23) at South
Florida-Improved USF has revenge motive, but Louisville offense an virtual
unstoppable dynamo at its own level...TENNESSEE (+6.5) at Lsu-Yes, Tigers
fired up for home debut, but Tennessee hung tight at Florida even facing a
much better QB; prefer to get at least 7 points, however...COLORADO STATE
(-17) vs. Nevada-After a week off to lick their wounds following tough road
losses at Colorado & Minnesota, rested Rams should get their potent aerial
game going vs. Nevada team with no covers last eight on the road...OREGON
STATE (+5) vs. Arizona State-In battle of unbalanced, pass-happy offenses and
vulnerable defenses, home field and the points appears to be substantial
edges...NEW ENGLAND (+3) at Pittsburgh-Embarrassed Pats will have their
"pride up" facing a QB who's unbeaten in regular season (15-0); Belichick's
boys 5-0-1 last 6 when getting points.
