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Really? I like Va Tech +4.
VT is 9-4 in the last 13 against Miami
VT is 4-2 in the last 6 played in Miami
VT has won 4 of the last 5 games
Underdogs are 12-5 (71%) in weeknight BCS matchups this year
VT is 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points s/1992
VT is 8-1 ATS in November the past 3 seasons
On the other side
Miami is 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Miami is 1-3 ATS at home this year
Miami has lost 4 of 5 to VT
Favorites are 5-12 (29%) in weeknight BCS matchups this year
This just sceams sucker bet to me. I was surprised VT was the underdog. I've got the game dead even but VT with an edge in the running game. What makes you like Miami?
Randizzle - I remembering reading a post of yours....
pretty much people were asking you if they should still jump on a game because the line they were getting was 0.5 - 1.5 point difference.
You said something like: It doesn't matter because 15% of the time the spread doesn't really matter.
I tried to look for the post but could not find it yet. I was wondering if you could break that down again b/c my local is a prick and usually adds or subtracts 1.5 - 2 points against my favor.....
Thanks for posting, your time is appreciated!
pretty much people were asking you if they should still jump on a game because the line they were getting was 0.5 - 1.5 point difference.
You said something like: It doesn't matter because 15% of the time the spread doesn't really matter.
I tried to look for the post but could not find it yet. I was wondering if you could break that down again b/c my local is a prick and usually adds or subtracts 1.5 - 2 points against my favor.....
Thanks for posting, your time is appreciated!
Points DO matter, but not necessarily enough to not play a game. They are relevant to the point of "Value". As the line rises, obviously the value of the play goes down. If you read my write-up on the game, I have Ball St. -16 for 3 Units, but in parantheses I say I would still wager 1 Unit up to -20. As you can see, the line movement does not affect weather I play the game or not, but the value does decrease therefore the amount I am willing to risk decreases as well. I hope this helps.
GL,
Dizz
GL,
Dizz
hey rand i hope you know that us that do follow ya.. cant begin to tell ya how much we do appreicate all that you do. and all the time you do put into it.. you seem like a hell of a guy... even besides your picks you just seem like "GOOD PP".. last week a good friend of mine told me he LOVED philly over the NYG.. im from ny orig.. but moved to s. dakota to raise my son 18 yrs ago.His mom is from here(s.dakota) so i am a GIANT giant fan but listened to him.. he is truly a G_R-E-A-T guy..i lost my butt off on that game,BIG time all i could think about was poor money management on my part oh well live and learn right?? But this weekend i follow you and only you and hope we have a good week..of course ..who knows right?? anyway ya probably dont even wanna hear this.. but good luck to ya this weekend AND in life in general.. sure hope ya at least read this.. my guess is you will.. peace out randizz.. MR NY-ken
I'm not randizzle, but I think he said the spread matters only in 15% of the games. Still in a business where a long-term hitrate of 55% is good and 60% is almost divine, those 15% can make a great difference. If your bookie really always moves the line against you by 1.5-2 points you should find a new bookie ASAP.
Hard to choose just one out of those that I like, but I really like VT winning 4/6 in Miami. The 2 that they didn't win Miami was 11-1 and 12-1 (2000 and 2002). One year they were in the national title game (2002 - lost to Ohio St) and the other they won by 3 scores over Florida in the sugar bowl. Thank you for the question.
I have the upmost respect for dizz picks made some money on them. I think ball st. Was a great pick at -16, but then it got as high as -19.5 and is now back down at some places to -18.5. This line movement is screaming a no play. Please someone let me know if i'm thinking to much. Then you got the northern illinois pick that got the piss beat out of them by ball st. Last week and they are playing central michigan that everyone is saying ball st. Could be looking forward to playing next week. So wouldn't you conclude that central michigan is a better team than northern illinois. These are just observations and will probably tail dizz blindly again.
quote=boyzfan;6002318]I have the upmost respect for dizz picks made some money on them. I think ball st. Was a great pick at -16, but then it got as high as -19.5 and is now back down at some places to -18.5. This line movement is screaming a no play. Please someone let me know if i'm thinking to much.
The reason that the line is dropping, is because the wiseguys who laid 16,16.5, are buying the game back a bit to have 17,18,19 as possible middles.
Only suckers lay 3 points off a number unless there are mitigating circumstances. Ball may win by 25, but in the long run, you can't beat this game laying bad numbers.
The reason that the line is dropping, is because the wiseguys who laid 16,16.5, are buying the game back a bit to have 17,18,19 as possible middles.
Only suckers lay 3 points off a number unless there are mitigating circumstances. Ball may win by 25, but in the long run, you can't beat this game laying bad numbers.
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