Florida vs Florida State 11/24/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Florida winning 41% of simulations, and Florida State 59% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Florida commits fewer turnovers in 41% of simulations and they go on to win 51% when they take care of the ball. Florida State wins 71% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Mike Gillislee is averaging 72 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (27% chance) then he helps his team win 56%. Devonta Freeman is averaging 60 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (28% chance) then he helps his team win 72%.
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