Florida tied 48-48

[Legend-I-Aint]

IMO its the opposite. I read somewhere Independants are breaking for Mccain at higher clip then Obama, but Mccain needs to be winning by 1-2% if he is going to win that state/overall election.

1. Younger vote. We often hear this, but polls don't take into consideration people with only cellphones. Certaintly people with no landlines/younger people will BREAK for Obama heavy. In addition alot of younger voters aren't included in these polls because its often "likely" voters that are polled. This year they'll be record turnout, so this favors Obama.

1b. Alot of states have same day registration. This will favor Obama as alot of new voters will be breaking for Obama.

2. Obama ground game is MUCH better then Mccain. Traditionally this is where the dems lose. But this year they will be getting out the vote like never before. I read somewhere this alone will be giving Obama 1-2% in votes.

3. Mccain will lose votes to Barr in key western states/florida. There are certain republicans, although very small, that certaintly won't vote for Dems, but aren't swayed by the christian wing of the reps. As illustrated by support of Ron Paul, who endorsed Barr I believe. Current polling doesn't show 3rd party votes.

The thing about the key words in your post "younger" and "voter" is that they don't go too well together.

They are younger and so they likely won't vote.

Apathy!

 

[barman]

Actually is not alot. I was thinking of NC/Virginia, but i guess virginia doesnt allowed it.

Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Maine and New Hampshire allow same day registration. Of those Wisconsin/Minnesota are the only two that are going to matter. And it does favor Obama holding those states.

Also North Carolina has something similiar. I think you can register 3-19 days BEFORE the 4th, and at the same time VOTE. so basically you can register and vote 3 days early. i saw somewhere that NC has 500,000 blacks that are STILL not registered, and if the race is +1 only then obama can easily win if he can get 10% of those blacks to register/vote early. plus nc has so many colleges, which tend to break for obama, all he has to do is be within 3-4% before the vote day, and i think he can pull it out.

I overlooked this response last week. Thanks for the information

 

[barman]

To continue KCAM's theme, here in Florida there is an increase in TV/radio promotion encouraging people to register to vote.

And it all seems to be backed by the Obama campaign.

I'm pretty sure that McCain and the Repubs would prefer no one new register to vote because it's almost all going to be for the non-incumbent party.

 

[BetIt]

Ohio has something similar to same day registration too....repubs were challenging it, not sure of the outcome

"Ohio has created a window in the election calendar that would allow residents instant gratification - register one minute, vote the next. It's also given the campaigns of Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain a chance to bank thousands of first-time voters during that Sept. 30 to Oct. 6 window."

Early voting has begun in several key states....I read they expect up to 35% of the electorate to vote early. Election may be decided before November even comes.

 

[barman]

SheBar and I will both be voting absentee in the next couple weeks.