Florida State vs Miami (FL) on 11/05 by blackwiseguy
45
FINAL
3
Game Miami (FL)
+7½ -110
LOSS
Loss 5
Handicapper Analysis
0
A valid argument can be made that a touchdown and a hook should counter-intuitively encourage a bettor to lean on the college football odds favorite. If the sportsbooks refuse to back off Florida State -7.5, it is almost assuredly with reason, and there are plenty of reasons to be found here.
Miami is 0-7 against the spread against FBS opponents this year. That’s hard to do. The most recent ATS loss came courtesy of triple overtime’s two-point conversion requirements, giving the Hurricanes a 14-12 win at Virginia, though favored by a field goal.
Miami quarterback Travis Van Dyke is not assured to be playing, and freshman Jake Garcia has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season — playing competitive snaps in each of the last two games.
The Seminoles, meanwhile, put together an impressive October. Really, they’ve put together an impressive season. They may be only 5-3, but losing to Wake Forest, at North Carolina State with Devin Leary still healthy, and to Clemson should hardly doom a season. Those may be the ACC’s three best teams.
Florida State has won the games it should have won, going 4-0 ATS in its four wins against FBS opponents and 3-1 ATS as a favorite against FBS foes.
So the books are convicted in their Seminoles’ belief, there is ample thought to doubting the Hurricanes, and Florida State has delivered when it should this season.
Yet, that hook lingers.
Maybe it’s cowardly, but avoiding the thought of a late Miami touchdown and turning this into a one-score game will at least make Saturday night a bit more peaceful.
The Seminoles have led at halftime in four of their seven games against FBS opponents. Two of those shortcomings came against Clemson and Wake Forest. As said before, failing against the Deacons or Tigers should hardly doom a handicap. Outpacing the Wolfpack at the break, 17-3, should resonate louder.
This is a coward’s choice, but one that could prove prudent. It sticks with all possible indicators, just on a truncated timeline.
Miami is 0-7 against the spread against FBS opponents this year. That’s hard to do. The most recent ATS loss came courtesy of triple overtime’s two-point conversion requirements, giving the Hurricanes a 14-12 win at Virginia, though favored by a field goal.
Miami quarterback Travis Van Dyke is not assured to be playing, and freshman Jake Garcia has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season — playing competitive snaps in each of the last two games.
The Seminoles, meanwhile, put together an impressive October. Really, they’ve put together an impressive season. They may be only 5-3, but losing to Wake Forest, at North Carolina State with Devin Leary still healthy, and to Clemson should hardly doom a season. Those may be the ACC’s three best teams.
Florida State has won the games it should have won, going 4-0 ATS in its four wins against FBS opponents and 3-1 ATS as a favorite against FBS foes.
So the books are convicted in their Seminoles’ belief, there is ample thought to doubting the Hurricanes, and Florida State has delivered when it should this season.
Yet, that hook lingers.
Maybe it’s cowardly, but avoiding the thought of a late Miami touchdown and turning this into a one-score game will at least make Saturday night a bit more peaceful.
The Seminoles have led at halftime in four of their seven games against FBS opponents. Two of those shortcomings came against Clemson and Wake Forest. As said before, failing against the Deacons or Tigers should hardly doom a handicap. Outpacing the Wolfpack at the break, 17-3, should resonate louder.
This is a coward’s choice, but one that could prove prudent. It sticks with all possible indicators, just on a truncated timeline.
