florida state louisville line down to -5.5??????

[ul_4]

spread

Whats going on with this strange line? Florida st should be at least -9.5 no?

FSU shouldn't be favored anywhere near 9.5 IMO. Obviously, I am a Louisville fan but choose to dish the red tint glasses when it comes to wagering. I am 3-1 on their games this year (Miami win, Fl International win, Cuse win, Clemson loss) but it's not documented because I don't post my games (not good enough for that)

- Louisville has had this game marked the entire year -
- FSU is begging to be beat based on level of play and continued off the field troubles
- Petrino has had 10 days to prep for this game and he knows this is the game that defines the season
- Devante Parker is back. Expect 150+ yards receiving for him if not more. Unguardable and changes this offense even with average quarterbacks that we have
- FSU can't run the ball. With starting RB possibly in trouble, it could be tough earning points. UL defense is not strong upfront but they are very fast. Entire def is fast.

If the UL offense can function at a decent percentage, they win this game. Defense will keep this team in the game but it will all hinge on the qb play and making sure we don't have special teams issues. This team is 8-0 if not for special teams and that includes overcoming way below average QB play. We do not have a very good QB. He is average to good at best. But Parker is a difference maker and FSU has not seen a receiver like him. We have a stable of running backs so if one isn't firing, we have more.

This is the sucker bet of all sucker bets. The reigning national champ and reigning Heisman coming to unranked Louisville and they are favored 4-5??? FSU could easily win this game but I fully expect a Louisville fight and will call a 3 point win for the Cards at home.

 

[ThaDude]

This line is right where it should be imo. FSU has just been overrated all year so it looks low to the eye now. The value is out of this game now unless you like FSU. I'd be more inclined to play the Ville if FSU wasn't coming off a bye week. I don't think this is that bad of a spot for them since its a stand-alone game they can get up for. Something tells me they find a way to win by 7-10 points here.

 

[MoneyMiller]

I wasnt suprised at opener of 8.5 or that it was steamed to 6.5.
However very suprised -4 is available. Going big on the champs right now
Along with l'ville/under on saturday.
Good Luck Gents

 

[Spaceman1218]

FSU leading running back is being investigated for domestic violence. Apparently he slapped around his girlfriend who is currently pregnant with their SECOND child.

I'm sure nothing will come of it by Thursday and that he will be allowed to play but it is another distraction FSU has to deal with.

Louisville all the way for me.

 

[rolltide]

surprised it is this prevalent .... this will be 30th time since 2006 season that an unbeaten team with 7+ wins is either dog or favored by -5.5 or less vs a team with at least 2 losses. ole miss in this spot last week....

line >= -5.5 and losses = 0 and wins >= 7 and o:losses >= 2
SU: 20-9-0 (5.14, 69.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 19-9-1 (4.23, 67.9%) avg line: -0.9 +6: 23-6-0 (79.3%) -6: 12-17-0 (41.4%) +10: 24-5-0 (82.8%) -10: 8-20-1 (28.6%) O/U: 10-19-0 (-3.14, 34.5%) avg total: 56.1 +6: 8-21-0 (27.6%) -6: 14-14-1 (50.0%) +10: 7-22-0 (24.1%) -10: 17-12-0 (58.6%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.7 144.8 33.0 20.4 256.0 1.5 6.7 6.3 7.7 7.3 29.0 Opp 38.4 158.4 29.1 16.6 209.0 2.1 6.7 6.9 3.2 6.4 23.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 30, 2014 Thursday 10 2014 FLST LOU away -4.5

 

[tmader7]

FSU leading running back is being investigated for domestic violence. Apparently he slapped around his girlfriend who is currently pregnant with their SECOND child.

I'm sure nothing will come of it by Thursday and that he will be allowed to play but it is another distraction FSU has to deal with.

Louisville all the way for me.

Read this am he's Ray Rice's third cousin.........and the "beat" goes on.

~T~

 

[Leatherballs]

Line down to -3.5 (-110) at Betonline. How low can this line go???

 

[Addicted2quack]

Florida states running back being in trouble doesn't mean much in my opinion. Williams only has 380 rushing yards and 7tds all year. The Seminoles obviously struggle running the ball. But they have a great freshman running back so if Williams is out I consider it a wash. This line is close because it's a Thursday night game and Florida state could have easily lost 2-3 games up to this point. Louisville has the beat defense Florida state will see all year and it's on the road... I'll wait to see where the line moves then make a play

 

[pathologist]

Just can't trust Louisville shitty offense this year, even with Parker coming back doesn't mean alot if the qb sucks

 

[bones1980]

Fsu wins by 17! Miami beats them in 3 weeks

 

[ThaDude]

Guys the LVille defense hasn't played any real offenses yet. They got Kaaya in his first start, and Clemsons QB went down in the 1st quarter. THose defensive ranks need to be taken with a MAJOR grain of salt.

 

[tmader7]

Guys the LVille defense hasn't played any real offenses yet. They got Kaaya in his first start, and Clemsons QB went down in the 1st quarter. THose defensive ranks need to be taken with a MAJOR grain of salt.

EX-ACT-A-TACKTLY! When will the children learn, lol. Hope the line drops to 2+ so I can make my biggest play of the year.

~T~

 

[ThaDude]

EX-ACT-A-TACKTLY! When will the children learn, lol. Hope the line drops to 2+ so I can make my biggest play of the year.

~T~

Im not saying they stink, but they may not deserve those ranks. Total for the game may be interesting. We could have an overrated defense for Lou and underrated offense now that they have Parker back baked into the total.

 

[MileenaWins]

Am I the only one thinking that FSU will win because the zebras will help them out? Call me crazy - or not.

 

[ul_4]

Spread

This is true that Louisville has not faced the best of QB’s this year. Watson was hurt in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] quarter but the snaps he played he was rattled. The defense is strong but they are not going to shut down Winston. But UL is very good against the run as well and FSU does not run the ball well. This will work in our favor.

Keep in mind Louisville has not lost a home game by more than double digits since Nov 2009. They also lead the nation with 24 consecutive games played without losing by more than 6 points. Fact is Louisville keeps games close.

Yes, this offense is still shaky because the QB’s are average but UL’s RB’s are pretty good and the receivers are likely the best unit FSU has faced this year. However, if you are outside of Louisville you can’t imagine the difference Devante Parker makes. He is perhaps the top WR in the country and him being on the field changes a lot for this enigmatic offense.

With all that being said, this line makes no sense. I can’t understand 3.5 and expected this game to be 6-7 points just given it’s FSU and they haven’t lost in a long time.

 

[sendacash]

Am I the only one thinking that FSU will win because the zebras will help them out? Call me crazy - or not.

Good point, as a conference game there will be ACC officials in the house.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Louisville is 13-0 ATS when facing an ACC opponent .600 or greater during the regular season........

 

[ThaDude]

Louisville is 13-0 ATS when facing an ACC opponent .600 or greater during the regular season........

Louisville has only played 8 games this year so I can quickly write that trend off as meaningless.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Louisville has only played 8 games this year so I can quickly write that trend off as meaningless.

It doesn't mean just this season, it goes back several seasons, but good luck........

 

[ThaDude]

It doesn't mean just this season, it goes back several seasons, but good luck........

My point exactly, what does it even mean in context to the game? You're using a trend including Teddy Bridgewater and Charlie Strong to cap a game with different players and coaches?