Alright not too much going on Monday. I have one play and I feel very confident in it. Unfortunately it's my alma mater Villanova going down tonight against a Notre Dame team that is fighting to stay alive and get a tournament bid.
Notre Dame is extremely tough at home and Nova is currently in a small funk. They barely edged out Depaul and looked extremely sloppy against Gtown in a close game that should have been theirs for the taking.
Nova's defensive philosophy is a unique one that I believe is going to haunt them tonight. They have a swarming man to man help defense. What they do is focus on taking the best player on the other team out of the game, especially if it's a big guy. They will swarm all over Harangody, try to deny him the ball and double team him every time he does touch it. They have been very effective in stopping big men this year with that philosophy (Thabeet, Blair, Onawaku etc.). The only problem is this could leave Notre Dame's 3 point shooters wide open, especially problematic with a guy like McAlarney who is seemingly automatic from 3 when given room. The philosophy works pretty well when facing a team like Depaul who goes 9-33 or Gtown 4-16 3pters. Notre Dame will shoot better than that however.
I expect ND to win by 8-10 pts – I also believe that Nova will get off to a relatively slow start so I will take ND 1st Half at –1.5.
2 plays:
ND o Nova –3
ND o Nova 1st Half –1.5