First NCAA play: Miami -27.5

jwunderdog · Aug 25, 2003

Only game I like in week one. Miami coming off first lose in 2 years. La tech may have the worst defense in the WAC(and that is saying something). La Tech has a good QB but Miami in the past has been awesome against the pass. Maybe wrong here but don't think this is the same La Tech team of 2 years ago. Do not like the fact that Miami seems to let up after they are ahead, but this seems like a total mismatch. Maybe wrong and this is probably the most points I will ever lay but we shall see. By the way wouldn't play the game over -28.

GL

seaurchin2217 · Aug 25, 2003

dog you laying points

<whodathunkit>

jwunderdog · Aug 25, 2003

If it loses it will probably be the last time!

EveryGamblersDream · Aug 25, 2003

Have you considered buying it down a few points considering 27 could be viewed as a major #. I mean td's & fg's make it a legit # to me.

jwunderdog · Aug 25, 2003

At 27.5 it is a four TD and extra point winner. I know I will probably not due better then 57% on the year and if I start buying half points, it makes my breack even point move way above 53%. I would rather lay off the game then pay the extra insurance but I understand your reasoning. GL We will see I may very well be wrong but I will probably be wrong by 2 TD's not a 1/2 point.I don't think there is a 5 or 10 % chance of it hitting 27. GL

jwunderdog · Aug 26, 2003

Just to give you an idea, last year when a team was favored by 20 points or more the 1/2 point came into play about 4 times out of around 110 games depending on your closing lines.1 point came into play 7 times or just under 7%. Obivously the sample size is too small but I would guess those %s would hold up pretty well. Someone else may be able to help.