FHMESQ twist on SSI -1.5 system plays (MLB)

fhmesq44 · Apr 18, 2006

Finally am eligible to post my plays here. I have been posting plays for 4 days and will carry the record over. You can verify in the baseball room. Here is a brief explanation of the system I play:

Bet the road team on the -1.5 run line
Martingale system 1-2-4-8 (depending on number of games in the series). I know the tracker rules say no more than 5 units, so I will adjust for that and will reference when I actually play more. There aren't many 4 games series so it won't come into play often.
Start new each series
Quit when you win or the series ends
Play the HOME TEAM -1.5 when the worst teams (ideally the worst 7) are on the road. At this time, I am playing the home team when KC, TB, Wash, Fla and Pitts are on the road.

At the beginning of Monday, April 17th, my record is:

Games - 12-18 (don't worry about this, it will be negative throughout the season but the system carries the losses)
Series - 13-2
UNITS +10.95

You can verify this in the baseball room if you wish. As a note, this is a system SSI developed. I did some research and determined fading the worst teams made the system the most profitable and that is how I play it. Best of luck.

Last season this system (based on my estimates of run line odds) was +210 (or so) units if you faded the 7 worst teams in the league. These 7 teams were all below .450 winning percentage. At this point I am going subjective and have identified the above 5 teams as horrible. This list is fluid and may change, increase or decrease as the season passes. I will note when a team makes it out of the list or is added to the fade list.

fhmesq44 · Apr 18, 2006

Sorry, I forgot to post in Dollars. As of the start of yesterday I was +$1095

Yesterday:

4-4 for +$110

Today:

Should have been a much better day that it ended up. STL and SF couldn't hold on for the Ws, but it happens.

yesterday was 4-4 on the day for +1.1 UNITS or $110.

Season record so far:

Games: 16-22
Series: 17-2 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1205, 12.05 units

Todays plays, all -1.5:

CLE 100/140
BOS 115/100
NYY 110/100
LAA 100/160
DET 100/165
TEX 100/225
PHIL 100/135
STL 200/240
ATL 200/410
MIL 200/490
SF 200/250

Best of luck.

Fishhead · Apr 18, 2006

Please include the shop where your plays are made........as per the Tracker Forum rules.

fhmesq44 · Apr 18, 2006

Fishhead said:
Please include the shop where your plays are made........as per the Tracker Forum rules.

Plays are made at Diamond Sportsbook (www.2betdsi.com), which is the place I use. Generally their lines are slightly worse than Pinnacle so I am actually losing out to what many can get. Let me know if there is an issue with using that book. Just easier than tracking down another set of lines for posting purposes and I don't have access to Pinny or other sites' ARLs.

fhmesq44 · Apr 18, 2006

One error in my initial post, it was +210 units if you DIDN'T PLAY the worst 7 teams, not if you faded them. Fading them would have made it even more profitable.

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

5-6 on Tuesday for +$125

Updated record:

Games: 21-28
Series: 22-2 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1330, 13.3 units

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

Wednesday's plays all -1.5 runs:

NYY 200/200
STL 520/400
PHIL 200/310

Plays on DET, MIL and SF will come later, the lines aren't up yet on my account.

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

Adding:

DET 200/380
MIL 200/360 (this is supposed to be a 4 unit play in the system, but I don't like the game)
SF 300/570 (this is supposed to be a 4 unit play in the system, but with it being a 4 game series, I am cutting it to 3)

fhmesq44 · Apr 20, 2006

4-2 on Wednesday for $840

Updated record:

Games: 25-30
Series: 26-2 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$2170 or 21.7 units.

Small card today, 2 new series and 2 final games. I am playing the two final game plays at reduced units, Phil is supposed to be 4 units and SF 8 under the system

Today's plays, all -1.5 runs:

PHIL 250/337
SF 250/325
CIN 100/195
NYM 100/205

Best of luck.

fhmesq44 · Apr 21, 2006

A surprising 3-1 on Thursday for +$475. I was really expecting an 0-4.

Updated record:

Games: 28-31
Series: 29-3 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$2645 or 26.45 units.

Big card today, 13 new series with NYM and CINCY already closed.

Today's plays, all -1.5 runs:

ATL 100/150
PHIL 100/110 (fading Florida)
HOU 100/175 (fading Pitts)
CUBS 100/225
SF 100/135
ARIZ 100/205
BALT 100/220
BOS 100/135
TEX 100/120 (fading TB)
CLE 130/100
MINN 100/170
LAA 100/210
DET 100/150

Best of luck.

fhmesq44 · Apr 22, 2006

Horrible day on Friday going 1-12 for -1110

Updated record:

Games: 29-43
Series: 30-3 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1535 or 15.35 units.

Saturday plays in the morning.

fhmesq44 · Apr 22, 2006

Horrible day on Friday going 1-12 for -1110

Updated record:

Games: 29-43
Series: 30-3 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1535 or 15.35 units.

Saturday plays in the morning.

fhmesq44 · Apr 22, 2006

Brutal night last on Friday. Due to all the losses, I am going 1.5 units on today's games. All -1.5, more to follow later.

CUBS 150/315
BALT 150/322
BOS 150/345
LAA 150/285

BEst of luck, rest of the games later.

fhmesq44 · Apr 22, 2006

Adding:

ATL 150/195
PHIL 158/150
HOU 150/195
SF 150/225
ARIZ 150/285
CLE 195/150
MINN 150/300
DET 150/232

fhmesq44 · Apr 23, 2006

Saturday was 3-7 got -4.43 UNITS

Updated record:

Games: 32-50
Series: 33-3 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1092 or 10.92 units.

Still playing Sunday's games for lesser units. Don't really like many of them and it has been a tough weekend. Considered taking the day off, but decided to stick with it. Important thing to remember is that even after a 4-19 stretch, the system is still up almost 11 units in the last 10 days.

Today's Plays, all -1.5 runs:

ATL 150/225
PHIL 165/150
CUBS 150/292
ARIZ 150/300
BALT 150/442
BOS 150/195
CLE 188/156
MINN 150/390
LAA 150/225

Best of luck.

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2006

Sunday was 4-5 and +.74 UNITS

Updated record:

Games: 36-55
Series: 37-8 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1166 or 11.66 units.

As noted in another thread, had I played the true 1-2-4 system this past weekend, fading the 3 teams I faded, I would have been 10-5 and down only 3 units. However, after the bad Thursday I didn't go Martingale and ended down about 14 units.

If anything, this past weekend has strengthened my belief in this system. As I noted, last weekened was worse than any weekend all of last year and with the slight modifications I made (fading bad teams), I turned that weekend into a -3 unit weekend. If that doesn't strengthen your belief in the system, not sure what will. On to this week.

Today's Plays, all -1.5 runs:

Oak 100/175
CWS 100/135
DET 100/170
Cincy 100/190
COL 100/205
Cubs 110/100 (fading FLA)
ATL 100/180
HOU 100/155 (fading LAD)
STL 120/100 (fading Pitts)
Ariz 100/140
NYM 100/140

Best of luck.

fhmesq44 · Apr 25, 2006

Monday record was 4-7 for -$170 or -1.7 units

Updated record:

Games: 40-62
Series: 41-8 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$996 or 9.96 units.

Today's Plays, all -1.5 runs:

COL 200/410
ATL 200/270
BOS 100/115
NYY 120/100 (fading TB)
BALT 100/180
MINN 100/135
HOU 200/400 (fading LAD)
OAK 200/300
DET 200/290
NYM 200/310
CWS 200/260

Best of luck.

fhmesq44 · Apr 26, 2006

Tuesday record was 5-6 for +$75 or .75 units

Updated record:

Games: 45-68
Series: 46-8 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1071 or 10.71 units.

Today's Plays, all -1.5 runs:

COL 400/800
ATL 400/840
BALT 200/300
MINN 200/240
HOU 400/720
OAK 400/500

Best of luck.

fhmesq44 · Apr 27, 2006

Wednesday record was 2-4 for +$20 or .2 units

Updated record:

Games: 47-72
Series: 48-9 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1091 or 10.91 units.

Switching up the Colorado play today, it will be half on -1.5 and half on ML.

COL ML 400/588
COL -1.5 400/820
BALT -1.5 400/520
MINN -1.5 520/400
STL -1.5 100/115 (fading Wash)

Best of luck. Go Rocks.

fhmesq44 · Apr 28, 2006

Thursday record was 5-0 for $2443 or 24.43 units

Just a monster day yesterday, completely amazed really and couldn't be much happier. On to the weekend series, 14 remain as STL knocked down Wash on the fade yesterday.

Updated record:

Games: 52-72
Series: 52-9 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$3534 or 35.34 units.

All plays are -1.5:

TEX 100/190
TOR 100/140
SEA 100/180
MINN 100/195
BOS 105/100
OAK 125/100
CWS 100/150
MIL 100/200
PHIL 100/105
HOU 100/105
COL 100/150
NYM 100/150
LAD 100/180
ARIZ 100/205

Best of luck.