I see the criticism, and I can certainly take it since it is more than valid.
What is interesting on this game, is how confidant I was that I had the "right" side. No opposition ever appeared. When I submitted my article the line was a solid 154.5 and 155. So I do take exception to the fact that I'm being called a "follower" on this one after the line move. I actually felt the line would inflate. So I'd say I was 0-2 blowing both the game and the line move prediction.
I've made it preety clear in all my posts/articles that the best one can hope for is 55-56% ATS in major sports. So, I don't think it is fair to say I called this game "a lock" or a "65%" type game.
I did my homework and analysis the best I could. I conferred with other winning bettors and they agreed with the analysis on the game.
What can I say? I (we) called the game totally wrong, and lost $5,000 on it. What can you do, but move on and try to learn from the experience.
Don't tell me that all of you have never had a game you really liked that lost by 20 points? It's certainly troubling but it does happen.
PS. How about that Illinois/Duke game? This is a classic game where I would argue that every sharp Vegas bettor was faced with a minefield. The offshore line was 6.5. Vegas had several 7.5 all over the place. I'd argue strongly that even if you had no opinion on the game, a plus 7.5 big bet was the "basic strategy" way to go. People will disagree with me, but the bottom line is that if the sharpest offshore have the game 6.5, and you can pick off 7.5s on dogs vs. ulta public teams, you are are going to sail along hitting 54% plus ATS.
Whoops, looks like another Fezzik loser. One wonders how I stay in business! Yet add it up at year-end and I (and all the sharps I know) all wind up on the winning end. And we will all be firing on Bama +9.5 tomorrow if we get it, with no reservations.
What is interesting on this game, is how confidant I was that I had the "right" side. No opposition ever appeared. When I submitted my article the line was a solid 154.5 and 155. So I do take exception to the fact that I'm being called a "follower" on this one after the line move. I actually felt the line would inflate. So I'd say I was 0-2 blowing both the game and the line move prediction.
I've made it preety clear in all my posts/articles that the best one can hope for is 55-56% ATS in major sports. So, I don't think it is fair to say I called this game "a lock" or a "65%" type game.
I did my homework and analysis the best I could. I conferred with other winning bettors and they agreed with the analysis on the game.
What can I say? I (we) called the game totally wrong, and lost $5,000 on it. What can you do, but move on and try to learn from the experience.
Don't tell me that all of you have never had a game you really liked that lost by 20 points? It's certainly troubling but it does happen.
PS. How about that Illinois/Duke game? This is a classic game where I would argue that every sharp Vegas bettor was faced with a minefield. The offshore line was 6.5. Vegas had several 7.5 all over the place. I'd argue strongly that even if you had no opinion on the game, a plus 7.5 big bet was the "basic strategy" way to go. People will disagree with me, but the bottom line is that if the sharpest offshore have the game 6.5, and you can pick off 7.5s on dogs vs. ulta public teams, you are are going to sail along hitting 54% plus ATS.
Whoops, looks like another Fezzik loser. One wonders how I stay in business! Yet add it up at year-end and I (and all the sharps I know) all wind up on the winning end. And we will all be firing on Bama +9.5 tomorrow if we get it, with no reservations.
