Tight Ends in Transition
Offensive system change is an essential yet oft-overlooked factor when projecting players' statistics. Like a weak-side linebacker or a down lineman on defense, a tight end's production is often dependent on the scheme he plays in.
Tight ends transitioning to offenses that utilized the position heavily last year like Anthony Fasano (jumped from TE48 to TE9 under Dolphins coordinator Dan Henning) and Bo Scaife (TE25 to TE16 under Tennessee's Mike Heimerdinger) became fantasy starters or rock-solid TE2s. TEs placed in tight end-unfriendly situations like Vernon Davis (dropped from TE14 to TE26 for Mike Martz) were fantasy busts.
There were nine head-coaching changes this offseason. There are 13 new offensive coordinators. As many as 14 teams could have new starting tight ends. Based on system change, let's look at seven guys at risk, then wrap up with six potential risers.
[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends at Risk of Drop Off[/SIZE]
1. Tony Scheffler - New coach Josh McDaniels brings a typically tight end-unfriendly offense from Foxboro to Denver. In three seasons as Patriots offensive coordinator, McDaniels annually deemphasized the use of Ben Watson. Only Randy Moss and Wes Welker played more offensive snaps for the Pats last year, but Watson finished just fifth on the team in targets.
There is a feeling that McDaniels will install a pass-heavy system, but Denver's trade of the league's best young quarterback and selection of a running back (Knowshon Moreno), blocking tight end (Richard Quinn), and two interior linemen with four of its six offensive draft picks indicates otherwise. Scheffler should average 14.5-16 yards per catch, but risks a marked drop in receptions. And it isn't like the Broncos lack other options. McD hasn't run Brandon Marshall out of town yet, Eddie Royal is a 90+ catch second receiver, Jabar Gaffney is a $10 million No. 3, and rookie Kenny McKinley runs like the wind.
2. Tony Gonzalez - Amazingly, Gonzalez has finished as a top-three fantasy tight end in nine of the last ten seasons. In Gonzo's "down" year (2005) he was the TE7 overall. Gonzalez is now playing for Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. Mularkey ran offenses in Pittsburgh from 2001-2003, Miami in 2006, and has one year under his belt in Atlanta.
The Falcons' most productive tight end last season was Justin Peelle (15 catches). No Steelers tight end Mularkey coached ever caught more than 13 passes. Randy McMichael was the TE11 in '06, but it was the worst fantasy season of his career to that point. Atlanta didn't acquire the Hall of Famer to block, but Mularkey's track record doesn't bode well for a repeat of Gonzalez's TE1 finish from yesteryear.
3. Kellen Winslow - Winslow dominated at OTAs and isn't at nearly the same risk level as the first two. But he is moving from ex-Browns coordinator Rob Chudzinski's vertical, Norv Turner-style offense into Jeff Jagodzinski's West Coast system. Chudzinski was Winslow's college position coach at Miami (FL), so obviously there was a ton of familiarity between the two.
The good news is Jagodzinski has consistently coached on teams with productive tight ends. Jags ran Atlanta's offensive line when Alge Crumpler made back-to-back Pro Bowls and finished as a top-five fantasy TE in 2004 and 2005. All of Bubba Franks' three career trips to Honolulu came when Jagodzinski was Green Bay's tight ends coach. Jags was offensive coordinator when Packers tight ends combined for 56 catches and 570 yards in 2006.
4. John Carlson - Mike Holmgren's Seahawks attempted the fifth-most passes in the league last season despite Matt Hasselbeck missing nine games and parts of multiple others. Holmgren and ex-coordinator Gil Haskell's offenses always threw a ton, but new boss Greg Knapp wants a balanced attack.
Knapp did oversee Zach Miller's development into a fantasy starter in Oakland, and coordinated the Falcons when Crumpler was an annual Pro Bowler. The new system isn't as much of a concern for Carlson as are the healthy return of Seattle's receiver corps and addition of over-the-middle targets hog T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
5. Dallas Clark - The move from "retired" coordinator Tom Moore to Clyde Christensen, formerly Indianapolis' wide receivers coach, is something to consider in Clark's case. But it's more likely that Clark's top-five TE numbers will stay steady or improve with Marvin Harrison gone.
6. Zach Miller - Miller loses Knapp to Seattle. The Raiders oddly (though maybe not for them) never named a new offensive coordinator, but their lack of proven wideouts and maintenance of the overall system probably won't lead to a statistical drop for the third-year tight end.
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7. Robert Royal - Royal finished as the TE31 last year, but I still recall some Rotoworld readers asking why he wasn't a recommended waiver pickup around midseason. It was mostly because Royal played in a well-below league average offense and poses no threat after the catch.
Royal now moves into Chris Baker's old in-line tight end role under new Browns coordinator Brian Daboll, formerly the Jets' quarterbacks coach. Baker finished as the TE45 in 2008, and he's a much better player than Royal. Martin Rucker will try to be Daboll's new Dustin Keller.
[SIZE=+1]Potential Risers at Tight End[/SIZE]
1. Greg Olsen - The Bears have coaching staff continuity with coordinator Ron Turner returning. But the system is bound to change. There were even signs of Chicago running a more pass-friendly offense early last year, when Kyle Orton was the fantasy QB7 overall through Week 7. Now with super-accurate Jay Cutler at quarterback and no obvious improvement in the receiver corps, Olsen is being counted on for a breakout.
2. Dustin Keller - Despite the return of coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, the Jets will scale back their pass attempts moving from Brett Favre and Eric Mangini to Kellen Clemens/Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan. However, they set the table for Keller to be the No. 2 passing-game option behind Jerricho Cotchery by releasing Laveranues Coles. Keller reportedly "looked like the best receiving threat on the team" during OTAs.
3. Vernon Davis - I covered this in Pancake Blocks, but Davis will benefit from coordinator change more than any tight end in the league. Old OC Mike Martz ran one of the most tight end-unfriendly offenses in recent memory, using Davis to block rather than catch and run. Jimmy Raye now heads San Francisco's offense and will use the fourth-year TE extensively.
4. Brent Celek - Celek enters his third year in coordinator Marty Mornhinweg's West Coast attack with a clear-cut starting job. The Eagles always had big plans for L.J. Smith before his inevitable injuries, and will expect similar things from the more durable Celek. Donovan McNabb showed all kinds of faith in Celek in last year's playoffs, as the pair hooked up 19 times for 151 yards and three touchdowns in three games.
5. Jeremy Shockey - Shockey managed to haul in the 11th most receptions of any tight end last year despite playing injured the entire way, and even missing four full games. That shows just how TE-friendly Sean Payton's offense can be. We can't expect a 16-game season because Shockey's never played one in seven years pro, but he's also never had as healthy an offseason.
6. Martellus Bennett - Perhaps no clear-cut backup tight end on his own team is as talented as Bennett. Jason Witten should be the primary beneficiary of Terrell Owens' lost red-zone targets, but if Witten goes down Bennett will be a fantasy starter. Cowboys offensive boss Jason Garrett is a huge proponent of the tight end.
Offensive system change is an essential yet oft-overlooked factor when projecting players' statistics. Like a weak-side linebacker or a down lineman on defense, a tight end's production is often dependent on the scheme he plays in.
Tight ends transitioning to offenses that utilized the position heavily last year like Anthony Fasano (jumped from TE48 to TE9 under Dolphins coordinator Dan Henning) and Bo Scaife (TE25 to TE16 under Tennessee's Mike Heimerdinger) became fantasy starters or rock-solid TE2s. TEs placed in tight end-unfriendly situations like Vernon Davis (dropped from TE14 to TE26 for Mike Martz) were fantasy busts.
There were nine head-coaching changes this offseason. There are 13 new offensive coordinators. As many as 14 teams could have new starting tight ends. Based on system change, let's look at seven guys at risk, then wrap up with six potential risers.
[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends at Risk of Drop Off[/SIZE]
1. Tony Scheffler - New coach Josh McDaniels brings a typically tight end-unfriendly offense from Foxboro to Denver. In three seasons as Patriots offensive coordinator, McDaniels annually deemphasized the use of Ben Watson. Only Randy Moss and Wes Welker played more offensive snaps for the Pats last year, but Watson finished just fifth on the team in targets.
There is a feeling that McDaniels will install a pass-heavy system, but Denver's trade of the league's best young quarterback and selection of a running back (Knowshon Moreno), blocking tight end (Richard Quinn), and two interior linemen with four of its six offensive draft picks indicates otherwise. Scheffler should average 14.5-16 yards per catch, but risks a marked drop in receptions. And it isn't like the Broncos lack other options. McD hasn't run Brandon Marshall out of town yet, Eddie Royal is a 90+ catch second receiver, Jabar Gaffney is a $10 million No. 3, and rookie Kenny McKinley runs like the wind.
2. Tony Gonzalez - Amazingly, Gonzalez has finished as a top-three fantasy tight end in nine of the last ten seasons. In Gonzo's "down" year (2005) he was the TE7 overall. Gonzalez is now playing for Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. Mularkey ran offenses in Pittsburgh from 2001-2003, Miami in 2006, and has one year under his belt in Atlanta.
The Falcons' most productive tight end last season was Justin Peelle (15 catches). No Steelers tight end Mularkey coached ever caught more than 13 passes. Randy McMichael was the TE11 in '06, but it was the worst fantasy season of his career to that point. Atlanta didn't acquire the Hall of Famer to block, but Mularkey's track record doesn't bode well for a repeat of Gonzalez's TE1 finish from yesteryear.
3. Kellen Winslow - Winslow dominated at OTAs and isn't at nearly the same risk level as the first two. But he is moving from ex-Browns coordinator Rob Chudzinski's vertical, Norv Turner-style offense into Jeff Jagodzinski's West Coast system. Chudzinski was Winslow's college position coach at Miami (FL), so obviously there was a ton of familiarity between the two.
The good news is Jagodzinski has consistently coached on teams with productive tight ends. Jags ran Atlanta's offensive line when Alge Crumpler made back-to-back Pro Bowls and finished as a top-five fantasy TE in 2004 and 2005. All of Bubba Franks' three career trips to Honolulu came when Jagodzinski was Green Bay's tight ends coach. Jags was offensive coordinator when Packers tight ends combined for 56 catches and 570 yards in 2006.
4. John Carlson - Mike Holmgren's Seahawks attempted the fifth-most passes in the league last season despite Matt Hasselbeck missing nine games and parts of multiple others. Holmgren and ex-coordinator Gil Haskell's offenses always threw a ton, but new boss Greg Knapp wants a balanced attack.
Knapp did oversee Zach Miller's development into a fantasy starter in Oakland, and coordinated the Falcons when Crumpler was an annual Pro Bowler. The new system isn't as much of a concern for Carlson as are the healthy return of Seattle's receiver corps and addition of over-the-middle targets hog T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
5. Dallas Clark - The move from "retired" coordinator Tom Moore to Clyde Christensen, formerly Indianapolis' wide receivers coach, is something to consider in Clark's case. But it's more likely that Clark's top-five TE numbers will stay steady or improve with Marvin Harrison gone.
6. Zach Miller - Miller loses Knapp to Seattle. The Raiders oddly (though maybe not for them) never named a new offensive coordinator, but their lack of proven wideouts and maintenance of the overall system probably won't lead to a statistical drop for the third-year tight end.
<!--RW-->
7. Robert Royal - Royal finished as the TE31 last year, but I still recall some Rotoworld readers asking why he wasn't a recommended waiver pickup around midseason. It was mostly because Royal played in a well-below league average offense and poses no threat after the catch.
Royal now moves into Chris Baker's old in-line tight end role under new Browns coordinator Brian Daboll, formerly the Jets' quarterbacks coach. Baker finished as the TE45 in 2008, and he's a much better player than Royal. Martin Rucker will try to be Daboll's new Dustin Keller.
[SIZE=+1]Potential Risers at Tight End[/SIZE]
1. Greg Olsen - The Bears have coaching staff continuity with coordinator Ron Turner returning. But the system is bound to change. There were even signs of Chicago running a more pass-friendly offense early last year, when Kyle Orton was the fantasy QB7 overall through Week 7. Now with super-accurate Jay Cutler at quarterback and no obvious improvement in the receiver corps, Olsen is being counted on for a breakout.
2. Dustin Keller - Despite the return of coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, the Jets will scale back their pass attempts moving from Brett Favre and Eric Mangini to Kellen Clemens/Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan. However, they set the table for Keller to be the No. 2 passing-game option behind Jerricho Cotchery by releasing Laveranues Coles. Keller reportedly "looked like the best receiving threat on the team" during OTAs.
3. Vernon Davis - I covered this in Pancake Blocks, but Davis will benefit from coordinator change more than any tight end in the league. Old OC Mike Martz ran one of the most tight end-unfriendly offenses in recent memory, using Davis to block rather than catch and run. Jimmy Raye now heads San Francisco's offense and will use the fourth-year TE extensively.
4. Brent Celek - Celek enters his third year in coordinator Marty Mornhinweg's West Coast attack with a clear-cut starting job. The Eagles always had big plans for L.J. Smith before his inevitable injuries, and will expect similar things from the more durable Celek. Donovan McNabb showed all kinds of faith in Celek in last year's playoffs, as the pair hooked up 19 times for 151 yards and three touchdowns in three games.
5. Jeremy Shockey - Shockey managed to haul in the 11th most receptions of any tight end last year despite playing injured the entire way, and even missing four full games. That shows just how TE-friendly Sean Payton's offense can be. We can't expect a 16-game season because Shockey's never played one in seven years pro, but he's also never had as healthy an offseason.
6. Martellus Bennett - Perhaps no clear-cut backup tight end on his own team is as talented as Bennett. Jason Witten should be the primary beneficiary of Terrell Owens' lost red-zone targets, but if Witten goes down Bennett will be a fantasy starter. Cowboys offensive boss Jason Garrett is a huge proponent of the tight end.
