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Offensive line rankings: Which players are affected the most in fantasy?
KC Joyner
ESPN INSIDER
8/22/17
NOTE: The rankings in this column have been updated since it's original publish date in June.
Hall of Fame general manager Jim Finks once said, "A running back in the NFL is only as good as his blocking will let him be." This same rule applies to the passing game, as quarterbacks had an abysmal 29.1 Total QBR last season on plays in which they were under pass rush pressure.
Despite its importance, the fantasy football world has a significant gap in measuring the impact that blocking has on fantasy production.
That's about to change, as I have put together new blocking grading system designed to help fantasy owners identify the impact each team's offensive blockers are likely to have on fantasy prospects during the 2017 campaign.
The system uses a weighted bell curve structure largely revolving around multiple advanced metrics in both pass and run blocking.
For pass blocking, there is a significant emphasis for giving the quarterback a clean passing pocket, but notable value is also credited for preventing the quarterback from being sacked and/or hit by defenders. These elements are important in fantasy football because -- with help from the ESPN Stats & Info database -- quarterbacks are 60 percent more productive and pass catchers are 58 percent more productive on plays when the quarterback has a clean pocket.
A large portion of the run blocking grade is based on my good blocking rate (GBR) metric, which measures how often a ball carrier is given good run blocking, roughly defined as the offense not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt. GBR is important because good blocking carries are usually worth five times as many fantasy points as bad blocking carries.
The system also awards substantial value for personnel stability. NFL teams are projected to return 75.7 percent of their starting offensive line snaps from last year, and that number doesn't include 2016 starters from who have been shifted to backup roles on their same clubs. This shows NFL teams do place a heavy emphasis on keeping offensive lines together and illustrates why the personnel stability metric is important.
Another grade element is teams with stable measurements in multiple metrics will rate higher in that area than teams whose overall metric grades are equivalent but who reach that level with a more volatile set of metrics.
Pass blocking accounts for 40 percent of the overall grade, run blocking 30 percent and stability/consistency 30 percent. The system uses an A-F grade scale similar to the one we all remember from our school days.
Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let's take a look at how each team's blockers are slated to fare during the 2017 season.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall grade: A
Pass blocking: A
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: A
Schedule: A-
The Steelers are the only team in this analysis to have "A" grades in all four categories. The elite run blocking grade adds to Le'Veon Bell's value, but it also makes the winner of Pittsburgh's backup running back job (either James Conner or Fitzgerald Toussaint) a high percentage bench stash or handcuff. The upper-tier pass blocking should help alleviate concerns about Ben Roethlisberger making it through the season injury-free.
2. Chicago Bears
Overall grade: A-
Pass blocking: A-
Run blocking: B+
Stability/consistency: A-
Schedule: A
The Bears ranked seventh last season in ESPN Stats & Information's pass protection metric (PPM) that measures how often an offense controls the line of scrimmage on a dropback (50.4 percent). This helped Chicago rank eighth in sacks per dropback (4.7 percent). The Bears' ability to create huge gaps in defenses led to Jordan Howard ranking tied for third in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric (10.3). Chicago returns four starters from last year's offensive line and has an "A" schedule grade, so a repeat of these top-notch metrics is highly probable.
3. New Orleans Saints
Overall grade: A-
Pass blocking: A-
Run blocking: A
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: C
As might be expected for a Drew Brees team, the Saints had the best pass pressure rating allowed in the league (17.4 percent). What is surprising is that New Orleans also ranked tied for the best run blocking grade in part due to placing fourth in GBR (42.8 percent). If center Max Unger returns from his offseason foot surgery in time for Week 1 (as is currently projected), the Saints should be able to repeat this upper-tier performance.
4. Tennessee Titans
Overall grade: B+
Pass blocking: B+
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: A-
Schedule: B+
Tennessee made the jump from the worst GBR in 2015 (30.8 percent) to the second best GBR in 2016 (43.7 percent). The Titans were nearly as good in pass blocking, as they ranked fifth in PPM (50.9 percent). They return all five offensive line starters this season so DeMarco Murray should get plenty of assistance in repeating last year's superb fantasy production. The caveat is the Titans ranked 23rd in dropback hit percentage (how often their quarterback was hit by the defense on a dropback) so Marcus Mariota could have more durability problems if this issue isn't resolved.
5. Washington Redskins
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: A
Run blocking: C+
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: D-
Washington placed tied for the best overall pass blocking grade due to ranking first in PPM (52.0 percent), fourth in sack rate (3.6 percent) and tied for sixth in dropback hit rate (7.8 percent). Add five returning offensive line starters to the mix and it should allow Kirk Cousins, Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Jordan Reed to continue to produce superb fantasy numbers despite the D-minus schedule grade.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: B+
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: D-
The Eagles ranked third in GBR last year (43.2 percent) despite having road-grading offensive tackle Lane Johnson out of the lineup for 10 games. His return should help the Eagles keep their run-blocking prowess at or near an elite level. Johnson could also improve the already strong pass blocking, as Philadelphia ranked seventh in pocket time allowed on vertical passes (2.7 seconds on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). This trait should give Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith plenty of time to get open downfield.
7. Houston Texans
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: B
Run blocking: B
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: C
The Texans' blocking wall wasn't dominant in any area, but they had only three metrics with a grade rating of lower than "B" and only one grade under the "C" level. This elite consistency should provide Houston's running backs with plenty of blocking assistance. It also could help Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson get DeAndre Hopkins much closer to his formerly superb vertical receiving production level.
8. Oakland Raiders
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: A-
Run blocking: B-
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: D-
Oakland had the best sack rate allowed in the league last year (2.9 percent) and ranked fourth in PPM (51.0 percent), so consider Derek Carr's broken ankle an anomaly unlikely to recur. The Raiders do bring back all five offensive line starters, but mid-tier run blocking numbers (39.2 GBR, ranked 14th), a D-minus grade in screen blocking and a D-minus schedule grade cap this group's overall rating.
9. Atlanta Falcons
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: B-
Run blocking: A
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: D
The Falcons had a volatile set of pass blocking metrics, as they ranked 24th in both dropback pass rush pressure allowed (29.8 percent) and sack rate allowed (6.3 percent), yet still had the third highest pocket time on vertical throws (2.8 seconds). A 41.7 percent GBR (ranked eighth) and 2.9-yard rushing average before first defensive contact (ranked third) illustrates their ground game expertise. The return of four starters should keep Atlanta's blocking at or near this level in 2017.
10. New England Patriots
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: B
Run blocking: C
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: B+
The return of offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia helped solidify the Patriots blocking and helped New England place tied for ninth in dropback hit rate (9.1 percent). Returning all five offensive line starters should help Tom Brady get the most out of new home run threat Brandin Cooks, but the mediocre run blocking grade suggests Patriots running backs will still be a fantasy owner's nightmare.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: C
Run blocking: B+
Stability/consistency: B-
Schedule: B+
The dink-and-dunk nature of the Chiefs' passing game usually leads to good pass blocking, but Kansas City's No. 25 ranking in PPM (46.5 percent) and No. 31 mark in pocket time on vertical throws (2.4 seconds) held their grade down in this area. A 40.4 percent GBR (ranked ninth) and four returning starting offensive linemen should keep Kansas City fantasy running back values in good shape.
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: D+
Run blocking: B-
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: A
Cincinnati's "D" or lower grades in sack rate, pass protection and time in pocket on vertical passes means it could be it difficult for the Bengals to get the most out of A.J. Green, John Ross or Andy Dalton. One potential positive trait is the No. 11 ranking in GBR (39.9 percent) could mitigate downside for drafting Jeremy Hill or Joe Mixon. The "A" schedule grade should also prove beneficial.
13. Dallas Cowboys
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: B
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: C-
Schedule: D-
This grade may seem like a big surprise, but consider how Dallas got here. Their run blocking is as strong as advertised, but their pass blocking wasn't at an equivalent level. The Cowboys did place sixth in PPM (50.5 percent), but they also ranked 25th in both pressure rate allowed (30.2 percent) and dropback hit rate (13.3 percent). Those erratic metrics, when combined with Dallas ranking 24th in percentage of returning primary starting offensive linemen snaps from last season (61.3 percent) and the D-minus schedule grade, led to this group falling just outside of the top 10.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: B-
Run blocking: C-
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: A-
Prospective Leonard Fournette fantasy owners won't be happy seeing the C-minus run grade brought about in part by a No. 21 rank in GBR (36.3 percent). What they will like is four returning offensive line starters, an A-minus schedule, an A-minus grade in metric consistency and second-round draft pick Cam Robinson helping raise the run blocking grade in 2017.
15. New York Giants
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: B+
Run blocking: D+
Stability/consistency: C+
Schedule: D
The Giants blockers took a lot of heat from pundits last season, but let's not forget that Big Blue had the lowest dropback hit percentage (5.1), ranked fourth in pass pressure rate allowed (20.7 percent) and was third in sack rate allowed (3.5). The D-plus run blocking grade is a hindrance for Giants running backs, while New York's No. 28 ranking in pocket time on vertical passes (2.5 seconds) could cap Eli Manning, Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall's fantasy projections.
16. Green Bay Packers
Overall grade: C+
Pass blocking: B+
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: D+
Schedule: A-
The combination of a D-minus grade in run blocking and a B-plus grade in pass blocking were major factors in Aaron Rodgers setting a career high in single-season pass attempts (610). That wide grade variance led to the D-plus in stability/consistency despite Green Bay returning four starters and adding guard Jahri Evans in free agency. The Packers had the best screen pass blocking grade in the league last year, so look for Green Bay to continue to use that element quite heavily to augment their rushing attack.
17. Cleveland Browns
Overall grade: C+
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: A
Stability/consistency: F
Schedule: A
One of the most surprising metrics from last season was Cleveland ranking sixth in GBR (42.0 percent). Before using that as a reason to draft Isaiah Crowell or Duke Johnson as upside picks, fantasy owners should note that the Browns rank 30th in percentage of returning starting offensive linemen snaps (42.3 percent) and were one of only two teams to earn an "F" grade in stability/consistency. The offseason offensive line additions might result in another "A" run blocking grade in Hue Jackson's power rushing system and the "A" schedule grad won't hurt, but it could also take some time for the offensive line to gel.
18. Baltimore Ravens
Overall grade: C+
Pass blocking: B-
Run blocking: C
Stability/consistency: F
Schedule: A
Baltimore placed seventh in sack rate last year (4.6 percent), but also ranked 27th in pocket time on vertical passes (2.5 seconds) and tied for 23rd in PPM (47.1 percent). This type of inconsistency is why the Ravens overhauled their offensive line, as no team returns a lower percentage of their starting offensive linemen snaps (40.1 percent). If the offensive line personnel plan works and the "A" schedule grade helps matters, look for Baltimore to drop Joe Flacco's pass volume by at least 100 attempts and convert those into carries for Terrance West and Danny Woodhead.
19. Buffalo Bills
Overall grade: C+
Pass blocking: D+
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: D-
Schedule: B-
This was the most hit-miss blocking wall in the league last year. The Bills placed first in pocket time on vertical passes (2.9 seconds), but had the worst dropback hit rate (24.6 percent). They were tied for the worst screen pass blocking grade (F), yet had the fifth highest GBR (42.1 percent). This maddening inconsistency is why the Bills had a D-minus grade in stability/consistency despite returning four starters. Fantasy owners can probably rely on the run blocking for LeSean McCoy, but otherwise should consider this blocking wall untrustworthy.
20. Carolina Panthers
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: C+
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: B-
Carolina's No. 30 ranking in dropback hit percentage (18.8) helped lead to the D-minus pass blocking grade and provides impetus for the Panthers to reduce Cam Newton's career high in pass attempts per game from last season (34.0). The C-plus run blocking grade could hinder Christian McCaffrey's production, but returning four offensive line starters and adding a powerful draft prospect in tackle Taylor Moton could push the run blocking to greater heights in 2017.
21. Minnesota Vikings
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: C+
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: D+
Schedule: A
A revolving door of offensive linemen resulted in Minnesota ranking next to last in yards per rush before first defensive contact (1.7). The Vikings return only two offensive line starters and 41.0 percent of their offensive line starter snaps (ranked 31st), which is a primary reason why they have a D-plus stability/consistency grade. The offseason free agency and draft acquisitions on the offensive line should result in somewhat improved run blocking, so fantasy owners shouldn't go overboard in dropping Dalvin Cook's fantasy value.
22. Detroit Lions
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: C+
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: C+
Schedule: B-
The Lions do a solid job of keeping Matthew Stafford protected, as they ranked 12th in pass pressure allowed (25.4 percent) and 14th in dropback hit rate (10.3 percent). Detroit has terrible run blocking outside of its "B" grade in screen pass blocking, as the Lions ranked 27th in GBR (34.1 percent). They return only 57.4 percent of their primary starting offensive linemen snaps (ranked 26th), but the additions of T.J. Lang and Rick Wagner to the right side of their line could help the Lions improve on last year's performance.
23. Miami Dolphins
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: C
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: C-
The Dolphins' run blocking was bad across the board, as Miami ranked 28th in GBR (34.0 percent) and was one of only three teams to earn an "F" grade in screen pass blocking. A No. 24 ranking in dropback hit percentage (13.1) means Ryan Tannehill could be an injury risk. This group could see significant improvement if center Mike Pouncey returns to full-time status after registering only 287 snaps last season.
24. Arizona Cardinals
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: D+
Run blocking: C+
Stability/consistency: D+
Schedule: C
The Bruce Arians vertical passing system puts a lot of pressure on its offensive linemen and this group wasn't up to the task. The Cardinals placed tied for 29th in PPM (45.4 percent) and tied for 23rd in pocket time on vertical passes (2.5). Arizona returns four starting offensive linemen, but two of those players will be moving to different positions. A No. 24 rank in GBR (34.5 percent) didn't keep David Johnson from being an elite fantasy running back last year, but this group gives him a lower production ceiling than he would have with a stronger offensive line.
25. San Francisco 49ers
Overall grade: C-
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: C+
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: F
The Chip Kelly pass blocking system fell apart last year, as the 49ers ranked next to last in dropback hit rate (21.0 percent) and 29th in sack rate (8.0 percent). On a positive note, San Francisco did place 14th in PPM (48.4 percent). The 49ers return 82 percent of their primary offensive linemen starter snaps from last year, so Kyle Shanahan will have a lot of building blocks to try to implement the system that worked so well in Atlanta last season, but the "F" schedule grade will hinder every 49ers fantasy prospect.
26. Los Angeles Chargers
Overall grade: C-
Pass blocking: C+
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: D-
Schedule: B+
One of the most amazing feats in fantasy football last year was Melvin Gordon racking up 250.6 fantasy points despite getting good blocking on only 28.1 percent of his carries (next to last among running backs with 100 or more carries). That indicates Gordon can be an impact player regardless of whether or not new head coach Anthony Lynn's wholesale offensive line changes (including replacing three offensive line starters) have a positive impact this season.
27. New York Jets
Overall grade: D+
Pass blocking: C+
Run blocking: C-
Stability/consistency: D
Schedule: F
The Jets have some solid pass protection metrics, but no team in the league gave its quarterbacks less pocket time on vertical passes (2.4 seconds). That hinders the limited fantasy wide receiver prospects that remain on the Jets' roster. The run blocking is apt to be just as mediocre, as New York ranked 23rd in GBR (34.5 percent). The Jets' blocking inconsistencies are so bad that they have the fifth-lowest stability/consistency rate despite returning four offensive line starters.
28. Denver Broncos
Overall grade: D+
Pass blocking: D
Run blocking: F
Stability/consistency: C
Schedule: A-
The uncertainty at quarterback will make many fantasy owners think twice before drafting a Broncos pass catcher and the nearly ubiquitous subpar pass blocking metrics will add to that hesitation. Denver's No. 31 rank in GBR (33.2 percent) may be part of why they are making a change from a zone blocking scheme to a gap blocking scheme. That latter system may not be the best fit for Denver's running backs, so fantasy owners may want to think twice about investment costs for any Broncos player.
29. Indianapolis Colts
Overall grade: D
Pass blocking: D
Run blocking: D
Stability/consistency: B-
Schedule: F
Fantasy owners considering drafting Andrew Luck should note that the Colts ranked 29th in pass pressure rate allowed (34.6 percent), 28th in dropback hit percentage (16.2) and tied for 26th in sack rate (6.6 percent). This group was also one of only three teams to earn an "F" grade in screen pass blocking and placed 20th in GBR (36.7 percent). The Colts do return all five offensive line starters, but a lack of quality blocking and a brutal schedule cap the value of that metric.
30. Los Angeles Rams
Overall grade: D-
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: F
D-minus grades in pass and run blocking led the Rams to replace three starting offensive linemen and return only 42.6 percent of their starting offensive linemen snaps (ranked 28th). The blocking uncertainty does hinder Todd Gurley's fantasy value, but the addition of offensive line coach Aaron Kromer and tackle Andrew Whitworth could help the Rams take a forward step in blocking this year.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall grade: D-
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: C
Schedule: D+
Tampa Bay has been rightfully lauded for adding DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard to this offense, but maybe they should have done more to help the offensive line. The Buccaneers ranked tied for 29th in both PPM (45.4 percent) and pressure rate allowed (34.6 percent). Tampa Bay also placed last in yards per rush before first defensive contact (1.7) and 29th in GBR (33.7 percent). All of those metrics hinder the value of returning four offensive line starters and add significant risk to fantasy owners looking to this team for upside plays.
32. Seattle Seahawks
Overall grade: D-
Pass blocking: F
Run blocking: C
Stability/consistency: D
Schedule: D-
The Seahawks were the only team to land an "F" rating in pass blocking, as they ranked dead last in both pass pressure rate (36.3 percent) and PPM (41.3 percent). This led to Seattle ranking 30th in pocket time on vertical passes (2.4 seconds). Their run blocking wasn't that much better, as the Seahawks placed 26th in GBR (34.2 percent). The one positive note is Seattle did get an "A" grade in screen pass blocking. The atrocious pass blocking performance has led to Seattle moving back to their run-heavy ways, so consider Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham to have relatively low play volume ceilings this year.
KC Joyner
ESPN INSIDER
8/22/17
NOTE: The rankings in this column have been updated since it's original publish date in June.
Hall of Fame general manager Jim Finks once said, "A running back in the NFL is only as good as his blocking will let him be." This same rule applies to the passing game, as quarterbacks had an abysmal 29.1 Total QBR last season on plays in which they were under pass rush pressure.
Despite its importance, the fantasy football world has a significant gap in measuring the impact that blocking has on fantasy production.
That's about to change, as I have put together new blocking grading system designed to help fantasy owners identify the impact each team's offensive blockers are likely to have on fantasy prospects during the 2017 campaign.
The system uses a weighted bell curve structure largely revolving around multiple advanced metrics in both pass and run blocking.
For pass blocking, there is a significant emphasis for giving the quarterback a clean passing pocket, but notable value is also credited for preventing the quarterback from being sacked and/or hit by defenders. These elements are important in fantasy football because -- with help from the ESPN Stats & Info database -- quarterbacks are 60 percent more productive and pass catchers are 58 percent more productive on plays when the quarterback has a clean pocket.
A large portion of the run blocking grade is based on my good blocking rate (GBR) metric, which measures how often a ball carrier is given good run blocking, roughly defined as the offense not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt. GBR is important because good blocking carries are usually worth five times as many fantasy points as bad blocking carries.
The system also awards substantial value for personnel stability. NFL teams are projected to return 75.7 percent of their starting offensive line snaps from last year, and that number doesn't include 2016 starters from who have been shifted to backup roles on their same clubs. This shows NFL teams do place a heavy emphasis on keeping offensive lines together and illustrates why the personnel stability metric is important.
Another grade element is teams with stable measurements in multiple metrics will rate higher in that area than teams whose overall metric grades are equivalent but who reach that level with a more volatile set of metrics.
Pass blocking accounts for 40 percent of the overall grade, run blocking 30 percent and stability/consistency 30 percent. The system uses an A-F grade scale similar to the one we all remember from our school days.
Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let's take a look at how each team's blockers are slated to fare during the 2017 season.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall grade: A
Pass blocking: A
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: A
Schedule: A-
The Steelers are the only team in this analysis to have "A" grades in all four categories. The elite run blocking grade adds to Le'Veon Bell's value, but it also makes the winner of Pittsburgh's backup running back job (either James Conner or Fitzgerald Toussaint) a high percentage bench stash or handcuff. The upper-tier pass blocking should help alleviate concerns about Ben Roethlisberger making it through the season injury-free.
2. Chicago Bears
Overall grade: A-
Pass blocking: A-
Run blocking: B+
Stability/consistency: A-
Schedule: A
The Bears ranked seventh last season in ESPN Stats & Information's pass protection metric (PPM) that measures how often an offense controls the line of scrimmage on a dropback (50.4 percent). This helped Chicago rank eighth in sacks per dropback (4.7 percent). The Bears' ability to create huge gaps in defenses led to Jordan Howard ranking tied for third in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric (10.3). Chicago returns four starters from last year's offensive line and has an "A" schedule grade, so a repeat of these top-notch metrics is highly probable.
3. New Orleans Saints
Overall grade: A-
Pass blocking: A-
Run blocking: A
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: C
As might be expected for a Drew Brees team, the Saints had the best pass pressure rating allowed in the league (17.4 percent). What is surprising is that New Orleans also ranked tied for the best run blocking grade in part due to placing fourth in GBR (42.8 percent). If center Max Unger returns from his offseason foot surgery in time for Week 1 (as is currently projected), the Saints should be able to repeat this upper-tier performance.
4. Tennessee Titans
Overall grade: B+
Pass blocking: B+
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: A-
Schedule: B+
Tennessee made the jump from the worst GBR in 2015 (30.8 percent) to the second best GBR in 2016 (43.7 percent). The Titans were nearly as good in pass blocking, as they ranked fifth in PPM (50.9 percent). They return all five offensive line starters this season so DeMarco Murray should get plenty of assistance in repeating last year's superb fantasy production. The caveat is the Titans ranked 23rd in dropback hit percentage (how often their quarterback was hit by the defense on a dropback) so Marcus Mariota could have more durability problems if this issue isn't resolved.
5. Washington Redskins
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: A
Run blocking: C+
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: D-
Washington placed tied for the best overall pass blocking grade due to ranking first in PPM (52.0 percent), fourth in sack rate (3.6 percent) and tied for sixth in dropback hit rate (7.8 percent). Add five returning offensive line starters to the mix and it should allow Kirk Cousins, Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Jordan Reed to continue to produce superb fantasy numbers despite the D-minus schedule grade.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: B+
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: D-
The Eagles ranked third in GBR last year (43.2 percent) despite having road-grading offensive tackle Lane Johnson out of the lineup for 10 games. His return should help the Eagles keep their run-blocking prowess at or near an elite level. Johnson could also improve the already strong pass blocking, as Philadelphia ranked seventh in pocket time allowed on vertical passes (2.7 seconds on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). This trait should give Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith plenty of time to get open downfield.
7. Houston Texans
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: B
Run blocking: B
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: C
The Texans' blocking wall wasn't dominant in any area, but they had only three metrics with a grade rating of lower than "B" and only one grade under the "C" level. This elite consistency should provide Houston's running backs with plenty of blocking assistance. It also could help Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson get DeAndre Hopkins much closer to his formerly superb vertical receiving production level.
8. Oakland Raiders
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: A-
Run blocking: B-
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: D-
Oakland had the best sack rate allowed in the league last year (2.9 percent) and ranked fourth in PPM (51.0 percent), so consider Derek Carr's broken ankle an anomaly unlikely to recur. The Raiders do bring back all five offensive line starters, but mid-tier run blocking numbers (39.2 GBR, ranked 14th), a D-minus grade in screen blocking and a D-minus schedule grade cap this group's overall rating.
9. Atlanta Falcons
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: B-
Run blocking: A
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: D
The Falcons had a volatile set of pass blocking metrics, as they ranked 24th in both dropback pass rush pressure allowed (29.8 percent) and sack rate allowed (6.3 percent), yet still had the third highest pocket time on vertical throws (2.8 seconds). A 41.7 percent GBR (ranked eighth) and 2.9-yard rushing average before first defensive contact (ranked third) illustrates their ground game expertise. The return of four starters should keep Atlanta's blocking at or near this level in 2017.
10. New England Patriots
Overall grade: B
Pass blocking: B
Run blocking: C
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: B+
The return of offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia helped solidify the Patriots blocking and helped New England place tied for ninth in dropback hit rate (9.1 percent). Returning all five offensive line starters should help Tom Brady get the most out of new home run threat Brandin Cooks, but the mediocre run blocking grade suggests Patriots running backs will still be a fantasy owner's nightmare.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: C
Run blocking: B+
Stability/consistency: B-
Schedule: B+
The dink-and-dunk nature of the Chiefs' passing game usually leads to good pass blocking, but Kansas City's No. 25 ranking in PPM (46.5 percent) and No. 31 mark in pocket time on vertical throws (2.4 seconds) held their grade down in this area. A 40.4 percent GBR (ranked ninth) and four returning starting offensive linemen should keep Kansas City fantasy running back values in good shape.
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: D+
Run blocking: B-
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: A
Cincinnati's "D" or lower grades in sack rate, pass protection and time in pocket on vertical passes means it could be it difficult for the Bengals to get the most out of A.J. Green, John Ross or Andy Dalton. One potential positive trait is the No. 11 ranking in GBR (39.9 percent) could mitigate downside for drafting Jeremy Hill or Joe Mixon. The "A" schedule grade should also prove beneficial.
13. Dallas Cowboys
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: B
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: C-
Schedule: D-
This grade may seem like a big surprise, but consider how Dallas got here. Their run blocking is as strong as advertised, but their pass blocking wasn't at an equivalent level. The Cowboys did place sixth in PPM (50.5 percent), but they also ranked 25th in both pressure rate allowed (30.2 percent) and dropback hit rate (13.3 percent). Those erratic metrics, when combined with Dallas ranking 24th in percentage of returning primary starting offensive linemen snaps from last season (61.3 percent) and the D-minus schedule grade, led to this group falling just outside of the top 10.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: B-
Run blocking: C-
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: A-
Prospective Leonard Fournette fantasy owners won't be happy seeing the C-minus run grade brought about in part by a No. 21 rank in GBR (36.3 percent). What they will like is four returning offensive line starters, an A-minus schedule, an A-minus grade in metric consistency and second-round draft pick Cam Robinson helping raise the run blocking grade in 2017.
15. New York Giants
Overall grade: B-
Pass blocking: B+
Run blocking: D+
Stability/consistency: C+
Schedule: D
The Giants blockers took a lot of heat from pundits last season, but let's not forget that Big Blue had the lowest dropback hit percentage (5.1), ranked fourth in pass pressure rate allowed (20.7 percent) and was third in sack rate allowed (3.5). The D-plus run blocking grade is a hindrance for Giants running backs, while New York's No. 28 ranking in pocket time on vertical passes (2.5 seconds) could cap Eli Manning, Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall's fantasy projections.
16. Green Bay Packers
Overall grade: C+
Pass blocking: B+
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: D+
Schedule: A-
The combination of a D-minus grade in run blocking and a B-plus grade in pass blocking were major factors in Aaron Rodgers setting a career high in single-season pass attempts (610). That wide grade variance led to the D-plus in stability/consistency despite Green Bay returning four starters and adding guard Jahri Evans in free agency. The Packers had the best screen pass blocking grade in the league last year, so look for Green Bay to continue to use that element quite heavily to augment their rushing attack.
17. Cleveland Browns
Overall grade: C+
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: A
Stability/consistency: F
Schedule: A
One of the most surprising metrics from last season was Cleveland ranking sixth in GBR (42.0 percent). Before using that as a reason to draft Isaiah Crowell or Duke Johnson as upside picks, fantasy owners should note that the Browns rank 30th in percentage of returning starting offensive linemen snaps (42.3 percent) and were one of only two teams to earn an "F" grade in stability/consistency. The offseason offensive line additions might result in another "A" run blocking grade in Hue Jackson's power rushing system and the "A" schedule grad won't hurt, but it could also take some time for the offensive line to gel.
18. Baltimore Ravens
Overall grade: C+
Pass blocking: B-
Run blocking: C
Stability/consistency: F
Schedule: A
Baltimore placed seventh in sack rate last year (4.6 percent), but also ranked 27th in pocket time on vertical passes (2.5 seconds) and tied for 23rd in PPM (47.1 percent). This type of inconsistency is why the Ravens overhauled their offensive line, as no team returns a lower percentage of their starting offensive linemen snaps (40.1 percent). If the offensive line personnel plan works and the "A" schedule grade helps matters, look for Baltimore to drop Joe Flacco's pass volume by at least 100 attempts and convert those into carries for Terrance West and Danny Woodhead.
19. Buffalo Bills
Overall grade: C+
Pass blocking: D+
Run blocking: A-
Stability/consistency: D-
Schedule: B-
This was the most hit-miss blocking wall in the league last year. The Bills placed first in pocket time on vertical passes (2.9 seconds), but had the worst dropback hit rate (24.6 percent). They were tied for the worst screen pass blocking grade (F), yet had the fifth highest GBR (42.1 percent). This maddening inconsistency is why the Bills had a D-minus grade in stability/consistency despite returning four starters. Fantasy owners can probably rely on the run blocking for LeSean McCoy, but otherwise should consider this blocking wall untrustworthy.
20. Carolina Panthers
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: C+
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: B-
Carolina's No. 30 ranking in dropback hit percentage (18.8) helped lead to the D-minus pass blocking grade and provides impetus for the Panthers to reduce Cam Newton's career high in pass attempts per game from last season (34.0). The C-plus run blocking grade could hinder Christian McCaffrey's production, but returning four offensive line starters and adding a powerful draft prospect in tackle Taylor Moton could push the run blocking to greater heights in 2017.
21. Minnesota Vikings
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: C+
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: D+
Schedule: A
A revolving door of offensive linemen resulted in Minnesota ranking next to last in yards per rush before first defensive contact (1.7). The Vikings return only two offensive line starters and 41.0 percent of their offensive line starter snaps (ranked 31st), which is a primary reason why they have a D-plus stability/consistency grade. The offseason free agency and draft acquisitions on the offensive line should result in somewhat improved run blocking, so fantasy owners shouldn't go overboard in dropping Dalvin Cook's fantasy value.
22. Detroit Lions
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: C+
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: C+
Schedule: B-
The Lions do a solid job of keeping Matthew Stafford protected, as they ranked 12th in pass pressure allowed (25.4 percent) and 14th in dropback hit rate (10.3 percent). Detroit has terrible run blocking outside of its "B" grade in screen pass blocking, as the Lions ranked 27th in GBR (34.1 percent). They return only 57.4 percent of their primary starting offensive linemen snaps (ranked 26th), but the additions of T.J. Lang and Rick Wagner to the right side of their line could help the Lions improve on last year's performance.
23. Miami Dolphins
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: C
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: C-
The Dolphins' run blocking was bad across the board, as Miami ranked 28th in GBR (34.0 percent) and was one of only three teams to earn an "F" grade in screen pass blocking. A No. 24 ranking in dropback hit percentage (13.1) means Ryan Tannehill could be an injury risk. This group could see significant improvement if center Mike Pouncey returns to full-time status after registering only 287 snaps last season.
24. Arizona Cardinals
Overall grade: C
Pass blocking: D+
Run blocking: C+
Stability/consistency: D+
Schedule: C
The Bruce Arians vertical passing system puts a lot of pressure on its offensive linemen and this group wasn't up to the task. The Cardinals placed tied for 29th in PPM (45.4 percent) and tied for 23rd in pocket time on vertical passes (2.5). Arizona returns four starting offensive linemen, but two of those players will be moving to different positions. A No. 24 rank in GBR (34.5 percent) didn't keep David Johnson from being an elite fantasy running back last year, but this group gives him a lower production ceiling than he would have with a stronger offensive line.
25. San Francisco 49ers
Overall grade: C-
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: C+
Stability/consistency: B+
Schedule: F
The Chip Kelly pass blocking system fell apart last year, as the 49ers ranked next to last in dropback hit rate (21.0 percent) and 29th in sack rate (8.0 percent). On a positive note, San Francisco did place 14th in PPM (48.4 percent). The 49ers return 82 percent of their primary offensive linemen starter snaps from last year, so Kyle Shanahan will have a lot of building blocks to try to implement the system that worked so well in Atlanta last season, but the "F" schedule grade will hinder every 49ers fantasy prospect.
26. Los Angeles Chargers
Overall grade: C-
Pass blocking: C+
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: D-
Schedule: B+
One of the most amazing feats in fantasy football last year was Melvin Gordon racking up 250.6 fantasy points despite getting good blocking on only 28.1 percent of his carries (next to last among running backs with 100 or more carries). That indicates Gordon can be an impact player regardless of whether or not new head coach Anthony Lynn's wholesale offensive line changes (including replacing three offensive line starters) have a positive impact this season.
27. New York Jets
Overall grade: D+
Pass blocking: C+
Run blocking: C-
Stability/consistency: D
Schedule: F
The Jets have some solid pass protection metrics, but no team in the league gave its quarterbacks less pocket time on vertical passes (2.4 seconds). That hinders the limited fantasy wide receiver prospects that remain on the Jets' roster. The run blocking is apt to be just as mediocre, as New York ranked 23rd in GBR (34.5 percent). The Jets' blocking inconsistencies are so bad that they have the fifth-lowest stability/consistency rate despite returning four offensive line starters.
28. Denver Broncos
Overall grade: D+
Pass blocking: D
Run blocking: F
Stability/consistency: C
Schedule: A-
The uncertainty at quarterback will make many fantasy owners think twice before drafting a Broncos pass catcher and the nearly ubiquitous subpar pass blocking metrics will add to that hesitation. Denver's No. 31 rank in GBR (33.2 percent) may be part of why they are making a change from a zone blocking scheme to a gap blocking scheme. That latter system may not be the best fit for Denver's running backs, so fantasy owners may want to think twice about investment costs for any Broncos player.
29. Indianapolis Colts
Overall grade: D
Pass blocking: D
Run blocking: D
Stability/consistency: B-
Schedule: F
Fantasy owners considering drafting Andrew Luck should note that the Colts ranked 29th in pass pressure rate allowed (34.6 percent), 28th in dropback hit percentage (16.2) and tied for 26th in sack rate (6.6 percent). This group was also one of only three teams to earn an "F" grade in screen pass blocking and placed 20th in GBR (36.7 percent). The Colts do return all five offensive line starters, but a lack of quality blocking and a brutal schedule cap the value of that metric.
30. Los Angeles Rams
Overall grade: D-
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: B
Schedule: F
D-minus grades in pass and run blocking led the Rams to replace three starting offensive linemen and return only 42.6 percent of their starting offensive linemen snaps (ranked 28th). The blocking uncertainty does hinder Todd Gurley's fantasy value, but the addition of offensive line coach Aaron Kromer and tackle Andrew Whitworth could help the Rams take a forward step in blocking this year.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall grade: D-
Pass blocking: D-
Run blocking: D-
Stability/consistency: C
Schedule: D+
Tampa Bay has been rightfully lauded for adding DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard to this offense, but maybe they should have done more to help the offensive line. The Buccaneers ranked tied for 29th in both PPM (45.4 percent) and pressure rate allowed (34.6 percent). Tampa Bay also placed last in yards per rush before first defensive contact (1.7) and 29th in GBR (33.7 percent). All of those metrics hinder the value of returning four offensive line starters and add significant risk to fantasy owners looking to this team for upside plays.
32. Seattle Seahawks
Overall grade: D-
Pass blocking: F
Run blocking: C
Stability/consistency: D
Schedule: D-
The Seahawks were the only team to land an "F" rating in pass blocking, as they ranked dead last in both pass pressure rate (36.3 percent) and PPM (41.3 percent). This led to Seattle ranking 30th in pocket time on vertical passes (2.4 seconds). Their run blocking wasn't that much better, as the Seahawks placed 26th in GBR (34.2 percent). The one positive note is Seattle did get an "A" grade in screen pass blocking. The atrocious pass blocking performance has led to Seattle moving back to their run-heavy ways, so consider Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham to have relatively low play volume ceilings this year.
Ty Montgomery, Bilal Powell among favorites to break out at running back
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
8/23/17
Fantasy football owners sure didn’t seem too interested in Chargers running back Melvin Gordon last season, as many running backs, five tight ends and even a defense were selected earlier in ESPN ADP, and the reason is because his rookie year didn’t go well. Gordon starred in college at Wisconsin, but entered Year 2 in the NFL with an undeserved reputation that he couldn’t score touchdowns, couldn’t be an effective pass catcher and couldn’t stay healthy. Then he went and proved everyone wrong -- breaking out into a star -- and now he’s a top-10 running back in ESPN ADP.
Gordon’s story reminds us of several important factors when trying to determine potential breakout players. First, we know pretty much everyone in the NFL has starred in this sport at some point, so anyone with opportunity can prove they belong and show their upside. Some were first-round selections like Gordon and Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, others like Chicago Bears running back Jordan Howard were later-round choices, perhaps a bit forgotten. But Gordon, Elliott and Howard all broke out as stars during the 2017 season. We knew they had skills, but when opportunity knocks, some players step up, even ones who had struggled in the past. Others need another year or three.
We covered the quarterback breakouts and now it’s time for running back, a position chock full of talent, but certainly a tad lacking in reliable options to build fantasy rosters around. Oh, there are certainly 10 or so running backs we know and mostly love, and then a bunch of rookies regarded as RB2 choices and then, well, take your chances. Some will break out, but most will not. Gordon was mentioned prominently in this space a year ago and yeah, that went well! Miami’s Jay Ajayi was also mentioned and that went well, but then again, Washington’s Matt Jones and Seattle’s Thomas Rawls, eh, not so much.
The unwritten rules of these annual breakout blog entries state -- in my mind, at least -- that anyone who hasn’t broken out yet to one of the levels below is technically in play, and there are different standards of statistical prowess. In addition, we don’t consider rookies here. They get plenty of coverage in other blog entries! I happen to like quite a few of the running back rookies this season, especially as compared to other positions, but they have neither succeeded nor failed at this highest level yet, so using the term breakout for them isn’t like it is for a veteran few are thinking about. This is all based on value and expectations, and in some cases there are no expectations, which make the breakouts even better.
Potential top-10 PPR breakout
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns: Crowell’s third NFL season was his best, as he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and more than doubled his reception total, and all for a miserable offense. The Browns have built up the offensive line a bit and might not be as miserable, and that should help Crowell topple 1,000 rushing yards and be a worthy RB2 at the least.
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: A repeat entrant on this list, Hyde puts up numbers when he plays, but injuries make him a risk even for safe RB2 status. Of course, the upside is obvious. The 49ers brought in several rookies to push him, along with Tim Hightower to catch passes, and this seems like a make-or-break year for Hyde. Sometimes that’s all the motivation needed, really.
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers: The former wide receiver adapted well to being the team’s top running back and while he too will have to deal with younger competition, this isn’t an offense like the Browns or 49ers, either. The Packers have a Hall of Fame quarterback. Montgomery’s yards per rush figures to drop some with more work, but with an offseason to prepare for the rigors of running back duty, there’s major upside, too.
Bilal Powell, New York Jets: Someone has to generate offense for this team and Powell, a reserve for five years, finally got his chance in 2016 and looked great doing so. Powell could always catch passes, but he also averaged 5.5 yards per carry on his 131 chances. Matt Forte is still around, but seeing how Powell carried fantasy owners in December, he’s the better option. Remember, Danny Woodhead finished as a top-five PPR player two seasons ago. One does not need to rush for 1,000 yards to achieve great value.
Potential top-20 PPR breakout
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions: His third season will be an important one, since the former second-round pick from Nebraska underachieved statistically as a rookie with opportunity, then couldn’t even make it to October last season before a foot injury tripped him up. The Lions have Theo Riddick to catch passes but need Abdullah, who was on this list last year and possesses the same skills and upside, to stay on the field.
Terrance West, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens brought in Woodhead to catch the passes and that figures to work out well if he’s healthy, regardless of whether quarterback Joe Flacco can overcome his back woes. Woodhead’s career high in rushing attempts is 106. With Kenneth Dixon out of the picture, West should get plenty of touches and perhaps his first 1,000-yard campaign.
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots: It sure is crowded in that backfield! However, Gillislee is a bigger fellow than the relevant others like James White and Dion Lewis, and the former Dolphin and Bill proved adept at finding the end zone in 2016, with nine scores on barely 100 touches. I’m not saying he’ll do what departed LeGarrette Blount (18 touchdowns!) did, but he’s got a shot, and Blount finished top-10, even in PPR and even catching only seven passes.
Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins: Here is a larger, wider running back capable of achieving 1,000 yards if given opportunity, but again, this is PPR and he won’t be catching passes. He’ll need to hit the end zone, and is certainly capable of doing so.
Paul Perkins, New York Giants: He looked like the best running back for this club last season as a rookie, but didn’t get many chances. Now he should. It’s really that simple. This offensive line might not be great, but if Perkins gets 200-plus touches -- and he should -- then volume drives the value.
Deeper-league breakout
Wendell Smallwood, Philadelphia Eagles: It’s a bit of a mess in Philly’s backfield, with Blount expected to handle most of the carries and then smaller types fighting for the receptions, but Smallwood enters his second year with a chance to handle carries and receptions if others struggle. And we should point out that Blount is no lock for success, since he’s rarely enjoyed any outside New England.
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos: His availability for early September games is in doubt due to a wrist injury, and I’d actually rather recommend a rookie in this spot but can’t because of my silly rules about not naming rookies in this blog entry. (But De’Angelo Henderson looks legit if C.J. Anderson underwhelms again.) We can’t simply dismiss Booker, but he looked more appealing in July.
C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks: He’s the pass catcher in Seattle’s backfield, but watching the uninspired play of Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy last season and this month, one wonders if Prosise simply gets the chance to do everything himself.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: There’s a top-10 running back in his way, but if something happens to DeMarco Murray the bulldozing Henry should at least accumulate touchdowns.
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins: Much like Henry, here’s another big Alabama product behind one of the better running backs in the game. And as with Murray, we can find reasons for concern. Ajayi rushed for 200 yards in three different games last season, which was awesome and nearly half his season total, but that means he wasn’t so great in other games.
DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders: For those concerned that Marshawn Lynch won’t be so great after coming out of retirement, it means Washington and Jalen Richard could be relevant. Washington appears to be ahead on the current depth chart. Combined, these fellows ran 170 times -- split nearly evenly -- for 958 yards, a robust 5.6 yards per tote. The Raiders have options.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
8/23/17
Fantasy football owners sure didn’t seem too interested in Chargers running back Melvin Gordon last season, as many running backs, five tight ends and even a defense were selected earlier in ESPN ADP, and the reason is because his rookie year didn’t go well. Gordon starred in college at Wisconsin, but entered Year 2 in the NFL with an undeserved reputation that he couldn’t score touchdowns, couldn’t be an effective pass catcher and couldn’t stay healthy. Then he went and proved everyone wrong -- breaking out into a star -- and now he’s a top-10 running back in ESPN ADP.
Gordon’s story reminds us of several important factors when trying to determine potential breakout players. First, we know pretty much everyone in the NFL has starred in this sport at some point, so anyone with opportunity can prove they belong and show their upside. Some were first-round selections like Gordon and Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, others like Chicago Bears running back Jordan Howard were later-round choices, perhaps a bit forgotten. But Gordon, Elliott and Howard all broke out as stars during the 2017 season. We knew they had skills, but when opportunity knocks, some players step up, even ones who had struggled in the past. Others need another year or three.
We covered the quarterback breakouts and now it’s time for running back, a position chock full of talent, but certainly a tad lacking in reliable options to build fantasy rosters around. Oh, there are certainly 10 or so running backs we know and mostly love, and then a bunch of rookies regarded as RB2 choices and then, well, take your chances. Some will break out, but most will not. Gordon was mentioned prominently in this space a year ago and yeah, that went well! Miami’s Jay Ajayi was also mentioned and that went well, but then again, Washington’s Matt Jones and Seattle’s Thomas Rawls, eh, not so much.
The unwritten rules of these annual breakout blog entries state -- in my mind, at least -- that anyone who hasn’t broken out yet to one of the levels below is technically in play, and there are different standards of statistical prowess. In addition, we don’t consider rookies here. They get plenty of coverage in other blog entries! I happen to like quite a few of the running back rookies this season, especially as compared to other positions, but they have neither succeeded nor failed at this highest level yet, so using the term breakout for them isn’t like it is for a veteran few are thinking about. This is all based on value and expectations, and in some cases there are no expectations, which make the breakouts even better.
Potential top-10 PPR breakout
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns: Crowell’s third NFL season was his best, as he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and more than doubled his reception total, and all for a miserable offense. The Browns have built up the offensive line a bit and might not be as miserable, and that should help Crowell topple 1,000 rushing yards and be a worthy RB2 at the least.
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: A repeat entrant on this list, Hyde puts up numbers when he plays, but injuries make him a risk even for safe RB2 status. Of course, the upside is obvious. The 49ers brought in several rookies to push him, along with Tim Hightower to catch passes, and this seems like a make-or-break year for Hyde. Sometimes that’s all the motivation needed, really.
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers: The former wide receiver adapted well to being the team’s top running back and while he too will have to deal with younger competition, this isn’t an offense like the Browns or 49ers, either. The Packers have a Hall of Fame quarterback. Montgomery’s yards per rush figures to drop some with more work, but with an offseason to prepare for the rigors of running back duty, there’s major upside, too.
Bilal Powell, New York Jets: Someone has to generate offense for this team and Powell, a reserve for five years, finally got his chance in 2016 and looked great doing so. Powell could always catch passes, but he also averaged 5.5 yards per carry on his 131 chances. Matt Forte is still around, but seeing how Powell carried fantasy owners in December, he’s the better option. Remember, Danny Woodhead finished as a top-five PPR player two seasons ago. One does not need to rush for 1,000 yards to achieve great value.
Potential top-20 PPR breakout
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions: His third season will be an important one, since the former second-round pick from Nebraska underachieved statistically as a rookie with opportunity, then couldn’t even make it to October last season before a foot injury tripped him up. The Lions have Theo Riddick to catch passes but need Abdullah, who was on this list last year and possesses the same skills and upside, to stay on the field.
Terrance West, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens brought in Woodhead to catch the passes and that figures to work out well if he’s healthy, regardless of whether quarterback Joe Flacco can overcome his back woes. Woodhead’s career high in rushing attempts is 106. With Kenneth Dixon out of the picture, West should get plenty of touches and perhaps his first 1,000-yard campaign.
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots: It sure is crowded in that backfield! However, Gillislee is a bigger fellow than the relevant others like James White and Dion Lewis, and the former Dolphin and Bill proved adept at finding the end zone in 2016, with nine scores on barely 100 touches. I’m not saying he’ll do what departed LeGarrette Blount (18 touchdowns!) did, but he’s got a shot, and Blount finished top-10, even in PPR and even catching only seven passes.
Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins: Here is a larger, wider running back capable of achieving 1,000 yards if given opportunity, but again, this is PPR and he won’t be catching passes. He’ll need to hit the end zone, and is certainly capable of doing so.
Paul Perkins, New York Giants: He looked like the best running back for this club last season as a rookie, but didn’t get many chances. Now he should. It’s really that simple. This offensive line might not be great, but if Perkins gets 200-plus touches -- and he should -- then volume drives the value.
Deeper-league breakout
Wendell Smallwood, Philadelphia Eagles: It’s a bit of a mess in Philly’s backfield, with Blount expected to handle most of the carries and then smaller types fighting for the receptions, but Smallwood enters his second year with a chance to handle carries and receptions if others struggle. And we should point out that Blount is no lock for success, since he’s rarely enjoyed any outside New England.
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos: His availability for early September games is in doubt due to a wrist injury, and I’d actually rather recommend a rookie in this spot but can’t because of my silly rules about not naming rookies in this blog entry. (But De’Angelo Henderson looks legit if C.J. Anderson underwhelms again.) We can’t simply dismiss Booker, but he looked more appealing in July.
C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks: He’s the pass catcher in Seattle’s backfield, but watching the uninspired play of Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy last season and this month, one wonders if Prosise simply gets the chance to do everything himself.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: There’s a top-10 running back in his way, but if something happens to DeMarco Murray the bulldozing Henry should at least accumulate touchdowns.
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins: Much like Henry, here’s another big Alabama product behind one of the better running backs in the game. And as with Murray, we can find reasons for concern. Ajayi rushed for 200 yards in three different games last season, which was awesome and nearly half his season total, but that means he wasn’t so great in other games.
DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders: For those concerned that Marshawn Lynch won’t be so great after coming out of retirement, it means Washington and Jalen Richard could be relevant. Washington appears to be ahead on the current depth chart. Combined, these fellows ran 170 times -- split nearly evenly -- for 958 yards, a robust 5.6 yards per tote. The Raiders have options.
Carson Wentz leads way among quarterback breakouts
Eric Karabell
8/23/17
Fantasy football owners should be conditioned to be wary of rookie quarterbacks by this point, but when passers chosen with the highest of real-life draft picks get to Year 2, things change. We saw it in the interest level of Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Jameis Winston and Tennessee Titans icon Marcus Mariota, the first two picks in the 2015 draft. They were actually solid as rookies, and while only Mariota improved for fantasy purposes his second season, fantasy owners were obviously intrigued by them and their bright futures.
A year later, the top two picks in the NFL draft were Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, and each is expected to make strides this season, but only one of them appears intriguing for impatient fantasy rosters, and that’s for formats deeper than 10-team leagues. Then again, what if each of them took strides to greater fantasy relevance? We’ll take a deeper look in this space, because for some the term “breaking out” can mean dreaming, too. As with sleepers and busts and the rarely-understood-for-context term of “do not draft,” this can be interpreted myriad ways.
As a result, we’ll separate the levels of dreaming into sections. Wentz’s breakout might not end up in the same place as others. Also, no rookies are included. Dak Prescott broke out in 2016 but he had never played in the league before, so what did he break out from, college? Ordinary expectations? It would be tough to predict more breaking out from him for 2017, though it is, of course, possible. After all, I believe Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr and Tyrod Taylor have already broken out, since they were top-10 quarterbacks -- or darn close to it -- in 2016, but would it be a total shock if any or all pushed through the top-five QB door?
So let’s start “breakout” week in this blog space with the passers, and remember it’s always about value first. Any statistical breakout needs proper context based on past results and expectations in combination with value. These players have yet to reach the level being dreamt about, so let’s all start dreaming -- because on occasion, even in fantasy football, these dreams come true.
Potential top-10 breakout
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: They’ll be linked together for a long time, so it’s reasonable to do so here. Each came close to the top 10 last season as they further developed. Winston scored fewer fantasy points, but only because the rushing touchdowns predictably dropped. He actually got better overall, as did Mariota. And each quarterback has more weapons this season, as the Buccaneers signed legitimate deep threat DeSean Jackson and the Titans drafted exciting Corey Davis and signed proven Eric Decker. I think Winston is more likely to make the big leap, as he already throws well downfield and durability is less in question, but each is tempting.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles: The North Dakota State product wasn’t supposed to start as a rookie, but all of a sudden the Sam Bradford trade forced him into the role and he made everyone look good in September. Then, not coincidentally, when right tackle Lane Johnson was suspended, Wentz wasn’t so good. The tools are there for big numbers, however. Wentz has a strong, accurate arm and the mobility to escape trouble, and the Eagles, with arguably the worst set of wide receivers a season ago, now employ proven Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. Wentz could definitely add 10 touchdown passes to his ledger, and that would make him fantasy-relevant this season.
Potential top-20 breakout
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams: There’s no sugarcoating his performance as a rookie once he finally had the opportunity to play, and it should be made crystal clear that real-life draft status means little once you’re in the league. Well, it means you might get more chances to perform, but guarantees nothing statistically. Goff does have the tools to succeed and the Rams have a new coach and approach, plus several new wide receivers who can go downfield. Remember, Oakland’s Derek Carr rarely threw the ball downfield as a rookie (5.5 passing yards per attempt) because that was the game plan and he had nobody to throw to. Then he broke out in Year 2 and people acted surprised. While I don’t necessarily expect this, Goff certainly can succeed, and nobody is thinking of him in 10- and 12-teamers.
Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos: Perhaps he’s earned starter status simply because Paxton Lynch hasn’t, but Siemian wasn’t far from top-20 status last season in his first bit of playing time. He missed two games but otherwise was useful, especially for 2-QB formats, and there’s nothing wrong with wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Brian Hoyer, San Francisco 49ers: Laugh all you like about this 31-year-old journeyman, but mostly everything about the 49ers is new from a year ago and in a good way. Plus, Hoyer looked really good for the 2016 Bears, throwing for better than 300 yards in each of his four starts, with six touchdowns and nary an interception before breaking his arm. In 2015 for the Texans, he completed 60 percent of his passes for 19 scores and seven picks. Hoyer-to-Pierre Garcon could pay dividends in deep leagues.
Mike Glennon, Chicago Bears: His presence in Tampa Bay didn’t dissuade the organization from drafting Winston, and he was already a Bear when the franchise traded a lot for the opportunity to select Mitchell Trubisky, but once upon a time Glennon tossed 19 touchdowns versus nine interceptions as a rookie for the 2013 Bucs. The Trubisky era could start at any point, even prior to Week 1, but if the Bears let Glennon throw downfield, there could be a 3,200-yard passing season ahead.
Potential 2-QB breakout
Tom Savage, Houston Texans: A fourth-round pick in the 2014 NFL draft, Savage has never gotten a chance to play regularly and perhaps there’s a reason for that. After all, the Texans felt so confident this summer they drafted Clemson’s Deshaun Watson in the first round. Savage came into the league with the reputation for possessing a strong arm but also for questionable decision-making. The Texans might simply ask him to manage drives and avoid mistakes, but with an intriguing running game and DeAndre Hopkins to throw to, this could work out.
Cody Kessler, Cleveland Browns: Perhaps I’m alone in thinking he’s the best quarterback on the current Browns roster, because it seems he’s got no shot to start Week 1 over underwhelming Brock Osweiler or rookie DeShone Kizer, but let’s see how this plays out. The Browns have a running game, a strong offensive line and intriguing young receivers. I’d prefer to gamble on this offense than that of the Jets.
Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars: Like Hoyer, he’s not young in football terms, and even if this 32-year-old usurps the starting role from struggling Blake Bortles, he might not be asked to do more than manage drives and avoid turnovers. But the Jaguars have had a top-10 fantasy quarterback the past two seasons. Bortles did that and he wasn’t good. Henne might be no worse than Bortles. The Jaguars want to run and defend, and perhaps that will result in junk points at the end of the fourth quarter, which so many fantasy teams with Bortles and Allen Robinson relied upon.
Eric Karabell
8/23/17
Fantasy football owners should be conditioned to be wary of rookie quarterbacks by this point, but when passers chosen with the highest of real-life draft picks get to Year 2, things change. We saw it in the interest level of Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Jameis Winston and Tennessee Titans icon Marcus Mariota, the first two picks in the 2015 draft. They were actually solid as rookies, and while only Mariota improved for fantasy purposes his second season, fantasy owners were obviously intrigued by them and their bright futures.
A year later, the top two picks in the NFL draft were Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, and each is expected to make strides this season, but only one of them appears intriguing for impatient fantasy rosters, and that’s for formats deeper than 10-team leagues. Then again, what if each of them took strides to greater fantasy relevance? We’ll take a deeper look in this space, because for some the term “breaking out” can mean dreaming, too. As with sleepers and busts and the rarely-understood-for-context term of “do not draft,” this can be interpreted myriad ways.
As a result, we’ll separate the levels of dreaming into sections. Wentz’s breakout might not end up in the same place as others. Also, no rookies are included. Dak Prescott broke out in 2016 but he had never played in the league before, so what did he break out from, college? Ordinary expectations? It would be tough to predict more breaking out from him for 2017, though it is, of course, possible. After all, I believe Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr and Tyrod Taylor have already broken out, since they were top-10 quarterbacks -- or darn close to it -- in 2016, but would it be a total shock if any or all pushed through the top-five QB door?
So let’s start “breakout” week in this blog space with the passers, and remember it’s always about value first. Any statistical breakout needs proper context based on past results and expectations in combination with value. These players have yet to reach the level being dreamt about, so let’s all start dreaming -- because on occasion, even in fantasy football, these dreams come true.
Potential top-10 breakout
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: They’ll be linked together for a long time, so it’s reasonable to do so here. Each came close to the top 10 last season as they further developed. Winston scored fewer fantasy points, but only because the rushing touchdowns predictably dropped. He actually got better overall, as did Mariota. And each quarterback has more weapons this season, as the Buccaneers signed legitimate deep threat DeSean Jackson and the Titans drafted exciting Corey Davis and signed proven Eric Decker. I think Winston is more likely to make the big leap, as he already throws well downfield and durability is less in question, but each is tempting.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles: The North Dakota State product wasn’t supposed to start as a rookie, but all of a sudden the Sam Bradford trade forced him into the role and he made everyone look good in September. Then, not coincidentally, when right tackle Lane Johnson was suspended, Wentz wasn’t so good. The tools are there for big numbers, however. Wentz has a strong, accurate arm and the mobility to escape trouble, and the Eagles, with arguably the worst set of wide receivers a season ago, now employ proven Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. Wentz could definitely add 10 touchdown passes to his ledger, and that would make him fantasy-relevant this season.
Potential top-20 breakout
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams: There’s no sugarcoating his performance as a rookie once he finally had the opportunity to play, and it should be made crystal clear that real-life draft status means little once you’re in the league. Well, it means you might get more chances to perform, but guarantees nothing statistically. Goff does have the tools to succeed and the Rams have a new coach and approach, plus several new wide receivers who can go downfield. Remember, Oakland’s Derek Carr rarely threw the ball downfield as a rookie (5.5 passing yards per attempt) because that was the game plan and he had nobody to throw to. Then he broke out in Year 2 and people acted surprised. While I don’t necessarily expect this, Goff certainly can succeed, and nobody is thinking of him in 10- and 12-teamers.
Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos: Perhaps he’s earned starter status simply because Paxton Lynch hasn’t, but Siemian wasn’t far from top-20 status last season in his first bit of playing time. He missed two games but otherwise was useful, especially for 2-QB formats, and there’s nothing wrong with wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Brian Hoyer, San Francisco 49ers: Laugh all you like about this 31-year-old journeyman, but mostly everything about the 49ers is new from a year ago and in a good way. Plus, Hoyer looked really good for the 2016 Bears, throwing for better than 300 yards in each of his four starts, with six touchdowns and nary an interception before breaking his arm. In 2015 for the Texans, he completed 60 percent of his passes for 19 scores and seven picks. Hoyer-to-Pierre Garcon could pay dividends in deep leagues.
Mike Glennon, Chicago Bears: His presence in Tampa Bay didn’t dissuade the organization from drafting Winston, and he was already a Bear when the franchise traded a lot for the opportunity to select Mitchell Trubisky, but once upon a time Glennon tossed 19 touchdowns versus nine interceptions as a rookie for the 2013 Bucs. The Trubisky era could start at any point, even prior to Week 1, but if the Bears let Glennon throw downfield, there could be a 3,200-yard passing season ahead.
Potential 2-QB breakout
Tom Savage, Houston Texans: A fourth-round pick in the 2014 NFL draft, Savage has never gotten a chance to play regularly and perhaps there’s a reason for that. After all, the Texans felt so confident this summer they drafted Clemson’s Deshaun Watson in the first round. Savage came into the league with the reputation for possessing a strong arm but also for questionable decision-making. The Texans might simply ask him to manage drives and avoid mistakes, but with an intriguing running game and DeAndre Hopkins to throw to, this could work out.
Cody Kessler, Cleveland Browns: Perhaps I’m alone in thinking he’s the best quarterback on the current Browns roster, because it seems he’s got no shot to start Week 1 over underwhelming Brock Osweiler or rookie DeShone Kizer, but let’s see how this plays out. The Browns have a running game, a strong offensive line and intriguing young receivers. I’d prefer to gamble on this offense than that of the Jets.
Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars: Like Hoyer, he’s not young in football terms, and even if this 32-year-old usurps the starting role from struggling Blake Bortles, he might not be asked to do more than manage drives and avoid turnovers. But the Jaguars have had a top-10 fantasy quarterback the past two seasons. Bortles did that and he wasn’t good. Henne might be no worse than Bortles. The Jaguars want to run and defend, and perhaps that will result in junk points at the end of the fourth quarter, which so many fantasy teams with Bortles and Allen Robinson relied upon.
Martavis Bryant among top wide receiver breakouts
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
8/24/17
Wide receivers don’t seem to break out as often and mightily as they used to. Oh sure, we saw some excellent and surprising performances at the position last season -- and some of those fellows might even break out into bigger and better things this time around -- but overall it’s not like at running back.
More rookies matter at running back. There are more training camp battles. There sure seem to be more injuries. At wide receiver, we know the top guys, and in general the top guys perform as expected, with little statistical variance, and there’s ample depth to fill in.
As we finish up our trio of “breakout” blog entries for the big three fantasy positions (quarterback, running back) it’s a good time to remind fantasy owners that when it comes to wide receiver, you might not have to take many chances. There are many wide receivers to choose from and little need for handcuffing, like at running back. Most veterans have established roles. Most rookies haven’t established much of anything yet, and rookies aren’t eligible for this blog entry.
Some of the names below might seem to have already broken out, but we’re always looking at levels of excellence, expecting linear improvement. That’s not always the case.
Potential top-10 PPR breakout
Terrelle Pryor Sr., Washington Redskins: If this athletic fellow can catch 77 passes for more than 1,000 yards with the mess of Cleveland Browns quarterbacks, then imagine what’s possible with Kirk Cousins looking his way. Pryor finished 20th in PPR scoring among wide receivers and should only improve, perhaps to WR1 status.
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: First thing he needs to do is be the most valuable fantasy wide receiver on his own team, but he’s so laden with talent, expect greatness. Cooper has been close to the top 10 each of his first two seasons. A leap into further stardom, at some point, seems likely.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers: He was pretty underwhelming his first two seasons, and he had his opportunities when Jordy Nelson was hurt in 2015, but then Adams emerged as a top-10 PPR provider among wide receivers last year, thanks to his 12 touchdowns. Why can’t this get even better? We like Aaron Rodgers. Adams could cut more into Nelson’s targets this season.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs: It seems like it would be tough for any wide receiver playing with check-down quarterback Alex Smith to produce big numbers, but with Jeremy Maclin gone, the speedy Hill has that chance. He doesn’t figure to get many chances – if any -- in the return game, but if he can improve to 75 catches and 1,000 receiving yards, and score touchdowns, that’s a potential top-10 guy.
Tyrell Williams, Los Angeles Chargers: Perhaps unrelated rookie Mike Williams overcomes his back injury and becomes an instant star, but I’d much rather invest for this season in the Williams who stepped up nicely when Keenan Allen was hurt. This Williams was a top-20 guy last year.
Potential top-20 PPR breakout
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins: A repeater on this list from last season, Parker has battled inconsistency and injuries his first two seasons. The Ryan Tannehill season-ending injury should aid Parker, a downfield threat whom strong-armed Jay Cutler should have more luck finding.
Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers: Few doubt the talent, but it’s tough to rely on someone with multiple violations of the league’s substance abuse policy. That said, with 15 touchdowns in 21 career games, it’s easy to see the upside, should the league let him play.
Cameron Meredith, Chicago Bears: Year No. 2 for this undrafted free agent went better than expected, and now he and Kevin White figure to see most of the targets from either Mike Glennon or rookie Mitchell Trubisky. Remember, when those guys get intercepted, it isn’t charged to the wide receivers. I like Meredith over White, as he boasts some track record for performance and health.
Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns: Don’t laugh, but a Browns receiver topped 1,000 yards last season, so dare to dream. Well-traveled Kenny Britt was brought in to do what Pryor did, but he’s 28 and Coleman is the exciting Baylor product with blazing speed and athleticism. Perhaps each becomes at least flex-worthy.
Ted Ginn Jr., New Orleans Saints: It probably sounds ridiculous for this guy to be mentioned here, since he’s 32 and hasn’t approached a 1,000-yard season. But he’s never played with Drew Brees, either. Ginn is a clear home run threat, a DeSean Jackson-type with lesser hands, but he’s likely stepping into the Brandin Cooks role. And Brees is great. Tennessee’s Rishard Matthews went 65-945-9 last season and just missed the PPR top 20 at wide receiver. Ginn has the opportunity to do that.
Deeper league breakout
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers: If you’re a bit down on Kelvin Benjamin, here’s the other likely starter. With Ginn leaving, Funchess has an opportunity to be relevant.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: Take your pick between Lockett and Paul Richardson, youngsters with upside in an offense that might again find running the ball a problem.
Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins: He caught two passes as a rookie, but it’s another pass-heavy offense, and he should start on the outside.
Kevin White, Chicago Bears: The second receiver chosen in the 2015 draft between Cooper and Parker possesses upside, but can he stay on the field?
Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles: Here’s the fourth wide receiver chosen in that draft, and he’s been really disappointing so far. But now he’s the slot guy and Carson Wentz is breaking out.
Braxton Miller, Houston Texans: This team’s passing offense has to improve from last season, and since everyone seems to think Jaelen Strong is better than Miller and I think it’s open for debate, let’s focus on the former Ohio State quarterback.
J.J. Nelson, Arizona Cardinals: I’m officially off the John Brown bandwagon, as his health is clearly preventing him from a bigger role on Bruce Arians’ team. Someone has to step up! It’s either Nelson or Jaron Brown, and the former has averaged more than 19 yards per reception in his first two seasons, while the latter is coming back from a shredded knee.
Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens: Dare to dream, right? The Maclin signing couldn’t have helped him, but Perriman should see plenty of chances to emerge.
Andre Holmes, Buffalo Bills: The former Raiders deep threat should get a chance to start opposite rookie Zay Jones with Jordan Matthews coming from the slot. Tyrod Taylor likes to throw deep.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers: The former Bills deep threat should get a chance to start opposite, and since I actually -- perhaps crazily -- believe Brian Hoyer can surpass 3,500 passing yards, someone’s gotta be on the other end.
ArDarius Stewart, New York Jets: OK, we will name one rookie because the readers demand it! The former Alabama deep threat is now my first choice, if one must be made, among Jets receivers, albeit late. Faint praise perhaps, but Stewart is a third-round pick coming from a high-powered, well-coached offense to, well … he could be the new Quincy Enunwa, which is what we all strive to become.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
8/24/17
Wide receivers don’t seem to break out as often and mightily as they used to. Oh sure, we saw some excellent and surprising performances at the position last season -- and some of those fellows might even break out into bigger and better things this time around -- but overall it’s not like at running back.
More rookies matter at running back. There are more training camp battles. There sure seem to be more injuries. At wide receiver, we know the top guys, and in general the top guys perform as expected, with little statistical variance, and there’s ample depth to fill in.
As we finish up our trio of “breakout” blog entries for the big three fantasy positions (quarterback, running back) it’s a good time to remind fantasy owners that when it comes to wide receiver, you might not have to take many chances. There are many wide receivers to choose from and little need for handcuffing, like at running back. Most veterans have established roles. Most rookies haven’t established much of anything yet, and rookies aren’t eligible for this blog entry.
Some of the names below might seem to have already broken out, but we’re always looking at levels of excellence, expecting linear improvement. That’s not always the case.
Potential top-10 PPR breakout
Terrelle Pryor Sr., Washington Redskins: If this athletic fellow can catch 77 passes for more than 1,000 yards with the mess of Cleveland Browns quarterbacks, then imagine what’s possible with Kirk Cousins looking his way. Pryor finished 20th in PPR scoring among wide receivers and should only improve, perhaps to WR1 status.
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: First thing he needs to do is be the most valuable fantasy wide receiver on his own team, but he’s so laden with talent, expect greatness. Cooper has been close to the top 10 each of his first two seasons. A leap into further stardom, at some point, seems likely.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers: He was pretty underwhelming his first two seasons, and he had his opportunities when Jordy Nelson was hurt in 2015, but then Adams emerged as a top-10 PPR provider among wide receivers last year, thanks to his 12 touchdowns. Why can’t this get even better? We like Aaron Rodgers. Adams could cut more into Nelson’s targets this season.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs: It seems like it would be tough for any wide receiver playing with check-down quarterback Alex Smith to produce big numbers, but with Jeremy Maclin gone, the speedy Hill has that chance. He doesn’t figure to get many chances – if any -- in the return game, but if he can improve to 75 catches and 1,000 receiving yards, and score touchdowns, that’s a potential top-10 guy.
Tyrell Williams, Los Angeles Chargers: Perhaps unrelated rookie Mike Williams overcomes his back injury and becomes an instant star, but I’d much rather invest for this season in the Williams who stepped up nicely when Keenan Allen was hurt. This Williams was a top-20 guy last year.
Potential top-20 PPR breakout
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins: A repeater on this list from last season, Parker has battled inconsistency and injuries his first two seasons. The Ryan Tannehill season-ending injury should aid Parker, a downfield threat whom strong-armed Jay Cutler should have more luck finding.
Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers: Few doubt the talent, but it’s tough to rely on someone with multiple violations of the league’s substance abuse policy. That said, with 15 touchdowns in 21 career games, it’s easy to see the upside, should the league let him play.
Cameron Meredith, Chicago Bears: Year No. 2 for this undrafted free agent went better than expected, and now he and Kevin White figure to see most of the targets from either Mike Glennon or rookie Mitchell Trubisky. Remember, when those guys get intercepted, it isn’t charged to the wide receivers. I like Meredith over White, as he boasts some track record for performance and health.
Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns: Don’t laugh, but a Browns receiver topped 1,000 yards last season, so dare to dream. Well-traveled Kenny Britt was brought in to do what Pryor did, but he’s 28 and Coleman is the exciting Baylor product with blazing speed and athleticism. Perhaps each becomes at least flex-worthy.
Ted Ginn Jr., New Orleans Saints: It probably sounds ridiculous for this guy to be mentioned here, since he’s 32 and hasn’t approached a 1,000-yard season. But he’s never played with Drew Brees, either. Ginn is a clear home run threat, a DeSean Jackson-type with lesser hands, but he’s likely stepping into the Brandin Cooks role. And Brees is great. Tennessee’s Rishard Matthews went 65-945-9 last season and just missed the PPR top 20 at wide receiver. Ginn has the opportunity to do that.
Deeper league breakout
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers: If you’re a bit down on Kelvin Benjamin, here’s the other likely starter. With Ginn leaving, Funchess has an opportunity to be relevant.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: Take your pick between Lockett and Paul Richardson, youngsters with upside in an offense that might again find running the ball a problem.
Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins: He caught two passes as a rookie, but it’s another pass-heavy offense, and he should start on the outside.
Kevin White, Chicago Bears: The second receiver chosen in the 2015 draft between Cooper and Parker possesses upside, but can he stay on the field?
Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles: Here’s the fourth wide receiver chosen in that draft, and he’s been really disappointing so far. But now he’s the slot guy and Carson Wentz is breaking out.
Braxton Miller, Houston Texans: This team’s passing offense has to improve from last season, and since everyone seems to think Jaelen Strong is better than Miller and I think it’s open for debate, let’s focus on the former Ohio State quarterback.
J.J. Nelson, Arizona Cardinals: I’m officially off the John Brown bandwagon, as his health is clearly preventing him from a bigger role on Bruce Arians’ team. Someone has to step up! It’s either Nelson or Jaron Brown, and the former has averaged more than 19 yards per reception in his first two seasons, while the latter is coming back from a shredded knee.
Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens: Dare to dream, right? The Maclin signing couldn’t have helped him, but Perriman should see plenty of chances to emerge.
Andre Holmes, Buffalo Bills: The former Raiders deep threat should get a chance to start opposite rookie Zay Jones with Jordan Matthews coming from the slot. Tyrod Taylor likes to throw deep.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers: The former Bills deep threat should get a chance to start opposite, and since I actually -- perhaps crazily -- believe Brian Hoyer can surpass 3,500 passing yards, someone’s gotta be on the other end.
ArDarius Stewart, New York Jets: OK, we will name one rookie because the readers demand it! The former Alabama deep threat is now my first choice, if one must be made, among Jets receivers, albeit late. Faint praise perhaps, but Stewart is a third-round pick coming from a high-powered, well-coached offense to, well … he could be the new Quincy Enunwa, which is what we all strive to become.
Value fantasy running backs with high floors and high ceilings in 2017
KC Joyner
ESPN INSIDER
8/24/17
Fantasy football owners are always looking to manage risk. This is the mindset that drives owners to select handcuff running backs, shun players with significant injury histories and rarely pay top draft dollar for rookies.
Those tactics are all useful, but one of the most beneficial fantasy risk-management techniques is finding players who fall into the rare high-floor/high-ceiling category.
These players are extremely likely to return enough point production value to justify their average draft position (ADP), yet have the kind of upside potential that could move them up a tier or higher at their position (i.e. a low-tier RB3 who can provide RB2 value, in an upside scenario).
I've covered some of these high-floor/high-ceiling prospects at wide receiver with Brandin Cooks and a couple of times at quarterback -- one residing in Tampa and a veteran coming off an injury in Carolina -- so it's time to look at the running backs who qualify for this very important category.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Cook was a collegiate phenom, as he is the only ACC player to ever rush for 4,000 yards in three seasons and had the most career all-purpose yards by an ACC player who didn't have any return yardage.
That game-breaking ability has piqued fantasy owners' interest, but what should get their full attention is Cook's pass-blocking history. Nothing will get a rookie running back pulled from the lineup faster than subpar pass protection, but Cook logged a vast amount of experience in this area in Florida State's pro-style offense.
According to Stats LLC, Cook tallied 820 career snaps on passing plays, yet he had only 104 targets on those plays and thus was in pass protection mode much of the time. This is a major part of why Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur recently said he "absolutely" trusts Cook in pass protection. This confidence should open the door for Cook to sprint past the oft-injured Latavius Murray to take over either as the lead back in a committee setup or even vault close to true bell cow status. Either of those workload volumes would return Cook's current low-tier RB2 ADP (47.2, as of this writing), but the latter could give Cook low-tier RB1 upside that would make him a fantastic selection late in the fifth round in 10-team leagues.
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots
Last year, LeGarrette Blount turned the Patriots' goal line/power back role into a No. 9 ranking among fantasy running backs last season.
Gillislee was brought in to take over that role, yet he also provides tremendous breakaway ability. Last season, Gillislee posted a 10.1-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good run blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That made him one of only four backs with 100 or more carries to rack up a double-digit GBYPA last season.
Gillislee's draft value has dropped of late due to his battling a hamstring injury and the possibility that Rex Burkhead could vulture some of his carries, but let's run a couple of numbers here. Last season, Blount scored 232.9 points on 506 snaps, or 0.46 points per snap. Gillislee was in a slightly less powerful Buffalo offense and still managed to equal Blount's per-snap point production at 0.46.
At his current No. 26 ADP, Gillislee would have to score roughly 162 points to provide a solid return on investment. At the 0.46 points-per-snap pace, that means he would have to tally only 352 snaps to reach that mark, or 154 fewer snaps than Blount posted last season. The odds that he does that are very reasonable, but if Gillislee does end up matching Blount's snap count from last season, he will give low-tier RB1 or high-tier RB2 value to a fantasy owner selecting him as a midtier RB3.
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
It's never a good idea to expect players to repeat elite seasons, which is why many fantasy owners are being careful not to overpay for Atlanta prospects based on their superb 2016 numbers.
That mindset is understandable in many cases, but it is being taken way too far in Coleman's case. Last season, he scored 191.1 fantasy points, a mark that placed tied for 19th among running backs, but this season fantasy owners currently have him pegged as the No. 33 running back. To get an idea of how much of a production decline that is, note that last season the No. 33 running back scored 140.5 points, or more than 50 fewer points than Coleman posted.
That is a huge drop-off for an offense that could be relying even more on its running backs this season. Steve Sarkisian, the Falcons' new offensive coordinator, sometimes leaned on the ground game to record levels in college. His 2013 Washington Huskies team set a program record for rushing attempts (610) and yards (3,107) in a single season and his 2014 USC offense had Javorius Allen, whose 1,489 rushing yards were the most by a Trojan since 2005.
Sarkisian also has indicated he will fully utilize the Falcons running backs in the passing game as well, saying that Coleman and Devonta Freeman are two electric players who are bad coverage matchups for most defenders.
Barring a complete collapse, there is no way that Coleman is going to see a decline to RB4 level. He has a strong chance of coming close to last year's numbers and if better health helps him improve upon his 332 snaps last season, Coleman could even contend for midtier RB2 status.
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Ingram placed eighth in running back fantasy points last season (242.2), but is down to No. 22 in ADP at the position, which is a 27 percent decline in value based on last year's production figures at that ADP.
The primary reason that should be considered Ingram's production floor is he posted his point total on only 251 combined rushes and receptions. Since Ingram has posted 46 or more receptions in each of the past two seasons, he would only need roughly 200 carries in order to equal last year's workload. Some may think that will be a difficult task given the Saints' addition of Adrian Peterson, but ESPN NFL Nation Saints reporter Mike Triplett says that Ingram is the safe bet to play the most snaps out of this group, so a 200-carry season looks to be par for the course.
Ingram also will be able to rely on one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, as the Saints placed third in my projected offensive line rankings for the 2017 season.
Meanwhile, Kamara showed incredible home run ability at times during his Tennessee tenure, as he became the only Volunteers player to ever rack up 300 or more yards in a single game and was only the second Tennessee player to post 100 or more yards rushing and receiving in the same game. His 50-yard touchdown burst against the Los Angeles Chargers this past weekend illustrates that Kamara's breakaway speed can translate to pro-level production as well.
Travaris Cadet finished 51st among running backs last season while serving as the Saints' third-down back. That should be Kamara's role this season, but he is generally going undrafted. This disparity makes him a great waiver-wire pickup in smaller leagues and a late-round pick with tremendous upside potential in deeper leagues.
KC Joyner
ESPN INSIDER
8/24/17
Fantasy football owners are always looking to manage risk. This is the mindset that drives owners to select handcuff running backs, shun players with significant injury histories and rarely pay top draft dollar for rookies.
Those tactics are all useful, but one of the most beneficial fantasy risk-management techniques is finding players who fall into the rare high-floor/high-ceiling category.
These players are extremely likely to return enough point production value to justify their average draft position (ADP), yet have the kind of upside potential that could move them up a tier or higher at their position (i.e. a low-tier RB3 who can provide RB2 value, in an upside scenario).
I've covered some of these high-floor/high-ceiling prospects at wide receiver with Brandin Cooks and a couple of times at quarterback -- one residing in Tampa and a veteran coming off an injury in Carolina -- so it's time to look at the running backs who qualify for this very important category.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Cook was a collegiate phenom, as he is the only ACC player to ever rush for 4,000 yards in three seasons and had the most career all-purpose yards by an ACC player who didn't have any return yardage.
That game-breaking ability has piqued fantasy owners' interest, but what should get their full attention is Cook's pass-blocking history. Nothing will get a rookie running back pulled from the lineup faster than subpar pass protection, but Cook logged a vast amount of experience in this area in Florida State's pro-style offense.
According to Stats LLC, Cook tallied 820 career snaps on passing plays, yet he had only 104 targets on those plays and thus was in pass protection mode much of the time. This is a major part of why Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur recently said he "absolutely" trusts Cook in pass protection. This confidence should open the door for Cook to sprint past the oft-injured Latavius Murray to take over either as the lead back in a committee setup or even vault close to true bell cow status. Either of those workload volumes would return Cook's current low-tier RB2 ADP (47.2, as of this writing), but the latter could give Cook low-tier RB1 upside that would make him a fantastic selection late in the fifth round in 10-team leagues.
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots
Last year, LeGarrette Blount turned the Patriots' goal line/power back role into a No. 9 ranking among fantasy running backs last season.
Gillislee was brought in to take over that role, yet he also provides tremendous breakaway ability. Last season, Gillislee posted a 10.1-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good run blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That made him one of only four backs with 100 or more carries to rack up a double-digit GBYPA last season.
Gillislee's draft value has dropped of late due to his battling a hamstring injury and the possibility that Rex Burkhead could vulture some of his carries, but let's run a couple of numbers here. Last season, Blount scored 232.9 points on 506 snaps, or 0.46 points per snap. Gillislee was in a slightly less powerful Buffalo offense and still managed to equal Blount's per-snap point production at 0.46.
At his current No. 26 ADP, Gillislee would have to score roughly 162 points to provide a solid return on investment. At the 0.46 points-per-snap pace, that means he would have to tally only 352 snaps to reach that mark, or 154 fewer snaps than Blount posted last season. The odds that he does that are very reasonable, but if Gillislee does end up matching Blount's snap count from last season, he will give low-tier RB1 or high-tier RB2 value to a fantasy owner selecting him as a midtier RB3.
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
It's never a good idea to expect players to repeat elite seasons, which is why many fantasy owners are being careful not to overpay for Atlanta prospects based on their superb 2016 numbers.
That mindset is understandable in many cases, but it is being taken way too far in Coleman's case. Last season, he scored 191.1 fantasy points, a mark that placed tied for 19th among running backs, but this season fantasy owners currently have him pegged as the No. 33 running back. To get an idea of how much of a production decline that is, note that last season the No. 33 running back scored 140.5 points, or more than 50 fewer points than Coleman posted.
That is a huge drop-off for an offense that could be relying even more on its running backs this season. Steve Sarkisian, the Falcons' new offensive coordinator, sometimes leaned on the ground game to record levels in college. His 2013 Washington Huskies team set a program record for rushing attempts (610) and yards (3,107) in a single season and his 2014 USC offense had Javorius Allen, whose 1,489 rushing yards were the most by a Trojan since 2005.
Sarkisian also has indicated he will fully utilize the Falcons running backs in the passing game as well, saying that Coleman and Devonta Freeman are two electric players who are bad coverage matchups for most defenders.
Barring a complete collapse, there is no way that Coleman is going to see a decline to RB4 level. He has a strong chance of coming close to last year's numbers and if better health helps him improve upon his 332 snaps last season, Coleman could even contend for midtier RB2 status.
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Ingram placed eighth in running back fantasy points last season (242.2), but is down to No. 22 in ADP at the position, which is a 27 percent decline in value based on last year's production figures at that ADP.
The primary reason that should be considered Ingram's production floor is he posted his point total on only 251 combined rushes and receptions. Since Ingram has posted 46 or more receptions in each of the past two seasons, he would only need roughly 200 carries in order to equal last year's workload. Some may think that will be a difficult task given the Saints' addition of Adrian Peterson, but ESPN NFL Nation Saints reporter Mike Triplett says that Ingram is the safe bet to play the most snaps out of this group, so a 200-carry season looks to be par for the course.
Ingram also will be able to rely on one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, as the Saints placed third in my projected offensive line rankings for the 2017 season.
Meanwhile, Kamara showed incredible home run ability at times during his Tennessee tenure, as he became the only Volunteers player to ever rack up 300 or more yards in a single game and was only the second Tennessee player to post 100 or more yards rushing and receiving in the same game. His 50-yard touchdown burst against the Los Angeles Chargers this past weekend illustrates that Kamara's breakaway speed can translate to pro-level production as well.
Travaris Cadet finished 51st among running backs last season while serving as the Saints' third-down back. That should be Kamara's role this season, but he is generally going undrafted. This disparity makes him a great waiver-wire pickup in smaller leagues and a late-round pick with tremendous upside potential in deeper leagues.
Value fantasy running backs with high floors and high ceilings in 2017
KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
8/24/17
Fantasy football owners are always looking to manage risk. This is the mindset that drives owners to select handcuff running backs, shun players with significant injury histories and rarely pay top draft dollar for rookies.
Those tactics are all useful, but one of the most beneficial fantasy risk-management techniques is finding players who fall into the rare high-floor/high-ceiling category.
These players are extremely likely to return enough point production value to justify their average draft position (ADP), yet have the kind of upside potential that could move them up a tier or higher at their position (i.e. a low-tier RB3 who can provide RB2 value, in an upside scenario).
I've covered some of these high-floor/high-ceiling prospects at wide receiver with Brandin Cooks and a couple of times at quarterback -- one residing in Tampa and a veteran coming off an injury in Carolina -- so it's time to look at the running backs who qualify for this very important category.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Cook was a collegiate phenom, as he is the only ACC player to ever rush for 4,000 yards in three seasons and had the most career all-purpose yards by an ACC player who didn't have any return yardage.
That game-breaking ability has piqued fantasy owners' interest, but what should get their full attention is Cook's pass-blocking history. Nothing will get a rookie running back pulled from the lineup faster than subpar pass protection, but Cook logged a vast amount of experience in this area in Florida State's pro-style offense.
According to Stats LLC, Cook tallied 820 career snaps on passing plays, yet he had only 104 targets on those plays and thus was in pass protection mode much of the time. This is a major part of why Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur recently said he "absolutely" trusts Cook in pass protection. This confidence should open the door for Cook to sprint past the oft-injured Latavius Murray to take over either as the lead back in a committee setup or even vault close to true bell cow status. Either of those workload volumes would return Cook's current low-tier RB2 ADP (47.2, as of this writing), but the latter could give Cook low-tier RB1 upside that would make him a fantastic selection late in the fifth round in 10-team leagues.
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots
Last year, LeGarrette Blount turned the Patriots' goal line/power back role into a No. 9 ranking among fantasy running backs last season.
Gillislee was brought in to take over that role, yet he also provides tremendous breakaway ability. Last season, Gillislee posted a 10.1-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good run blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That made him one of only four backs with 100 or more carries to rack up a double-digit GBYPA last season.
Gillislee's draft value has dropped of late due to his battling a hamstring injury and the possibility that Rex Burkhead could vulture some of his carries, but let's run a couple of numbers here. Last season, Blount scored 232.9 points on 506 snaps, or 0.46 points per snap. Gillislee was in a slightly less powerful Buffalo offense and still managed to equal Blount's per-snap point production at 0.46.
At his current No. 26 ADP, Gillislee would have to score roughly 162 points to provide a solid return on investment. At the 0.46 points-per-snap pace, that means he would have to tally only 352 snaps to reach that mark, or 154 fewer snaps than Blount posted last season. The odds that he does that are very reasonable, but if Gillislee does end up matching Blount's snap count from last season, he will give low-tier RB1 or high-tier RB2 value to a fantasy owner selecting him as a midtier RB3.
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
It's never a good idea to expect players to repeat elite seasons, which is why many fantasy owners are being careful not to overpay for Atlanta prospects based on their superb 2016 numbers.
That mindset is understandable in many cases, but it is being taken way too far in Coleman's case. Last season, he scored 191.1 fantasy points, a mark that placed tied for 19th among running backs, but this season fantasy owners currently have him pegged as the No. 33 running back. To get an idea of how much of a production decline that is, note that last season the No. 33 running back scored 140.5 points, or more than 50 fewer points than Coleman posted.
That is a huge drop-off for an offense that could be relying even more on its running backs this season. Steve Sarkisian, the Falcons' new offensive coordinator, sometimes leaned on the ground game to record levels in college. His 2013 Washington Huskies team set a program record for rushing attempts (610) and yards (3,107) in a single season and his 2014 USC offense had Javorius Allen, whose 1,489 rushing yards were the most by a Trojan since 2005.
Sarkisian also has indicated he will fully utilize the Falcons running backs in the passing game as well, saying that Coleman and Devonta Freeman are two electric players who are bad coverage matchups for most defenders.
Barring a complete collapse, there is no way that Coleman is going to see a decline to RB4 level. He has a strong chance of coming close to last year's numbers and if better health helps him improve upon his 332 snaps last season, Coleman could even contend for midtier RB2 status.
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Ingram placed eighth in running back fantasy points last season (242.2), but is down to No. 22 in ADP at the position, which is a 27 percent decline in value based on last year's production figures at that ADP.
The primary reason that should be considered Ingram's production floor is he posted his point total on only 251 combined rushes and receptions. Since Ingram has posted 46 or more receptions in each of the past two seasons, he would only need roughly 200 carries in order to equal last year's workload. Some may think that will be a difficult task given the Saints' addition of Adrian Peterson, but ESPN NFL Nation Saints reporter Mike Triplett says that Ingram is the safe bet to play the most snaps out of this group, so a 200-carry season looks to be par for the course.
Ingram also will be able to rely on one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, as the Saints placed third in my projected offensive line rankings for the 2017 season.
Meanwhile, Kamara showed incredible home run ability at times during his Tennessee tenure, as he became the only Volunteers player to ever rack up 300 or more yards in a single game and was only the second Tennessee player to post 100 or more yards rushing and receiving in the same game. His 50-yard touchdown burst against the Los Angeles Chargers this past weekend illustrates that Kamara's breakaway speed can translate to pro-level production as well.
Travaris Cadet finished 51st among running backs last season while serving as the Saints' third-down back. That should be Kamara's role this season, but he is generally going undrafted. This disparity makes him a great waiver-wire pickup in smaller leagues and a late-round pick with tremendous upside potential in deeper leagues.
KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
8/24/17
Fantasy football owners are always looking to manage risk. This is the mindset that drives owners to select handcuff running backs, shun players with significant injury histories and rarely pay top draft dollar for rookies.
Those tactics are all useful, but one of the most beneficial fantasy risk-management techniques is finding players who fall into the rare high-floor/high-ceiling category.
These players are extremely likely to return enough point production value to justify their average draft position (ADP), yet have the kind of upside potential that could move them up a tier or higher at their position (i.e. a low-tier RB3 who can provide RB2 value, in an upside scenario).
I've covered some of these high-floor/high-ceiling prospects at wide receiver with Brandin Cooks and a couple of times at quarterback -- one residing in Tampa and a veteran coming off an injury in Carolina -- so it's time to look at the running backs who qualify for this very important category.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Cook was a collegiate phenom, as he is the only ACC player to ever rush for 4,000 yards in three seasons and had the most career all-purpose yards by an ACC player who didn't have any return yardage.
That game-breaking ability has piqued fantasy owners' interest, but what should get their full attention is Cook's pass-blocking history. Nothing will get a rookie running back pulled from the lineup faster than subpar pass protection, but Cook logged a vast amount of experience in this area in Florida State's pro-style offense.
According to Stats LLC, Cook tallied 820 career snaps on passing plays, yet he had only 104 targets on those plays and thus was in pass protection mode much of the time. This is a major part of why Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur recently said he "absolutely" trusts Cook in pass protection. This confidence should open the door for Cook to sprint past the oft-injured Latavius Murray to take over either as the lead back in a committee setup or even vault close to true bell cow status. Either of those workload volumes would return Cook's current low-tier RB2 ADP (47.2, as of this writing), but the latter could give Cook low-tier RB1 upside that would make him a fantastic selection late in the fifth round in 10-team leagues.
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots
Last year, LeGarrette Blount turned the Patriots' goal line/power back role into a No. 9 ranking among fantasy running backs last season.
Gillislee was brought in to take over that role, yet he also provides tremendous breakaway ability. Last season, Gillislee posted a 10.1-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good run blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That made him one of only four backs with 100 or more carries to rack up a double-digit GBYPA last season.
Gillislee's draft value has dropped of late due to his battling a hamstring injury and the possibility that Rex Burkhead could vulture some of his carries, but let's run a couple of numbers here. Last season, Blount scored 232.9 points on 506 snaps, or 0.46 points per snap. Gillislee was in a slightly less powerful Buffalo offense and still managed to equal Blount's per-snap point production at 0.46.
At his current No. 26 ADP, Gillislee would have to score roughly 162 points to provide a solid return on investment. At the 0.46 points-per-snap pace, that means he would have to tally only 352 snaps to reach that mark, or 154 fewer snaps than Blount posted last season. The odds that he does that are very reasonable, but if Gillislee does end up matching Blount's snap count from last season, he will give low-tier RB1 or high-tier RB2 value to a fantasy owner selecting him as a midtier RB3.
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
It's never a good idea to expect players to repeat elite seasons, which is why many fantasy owners are being careful not to overpay for Atlanta prospects based on their superb 2016 numbers.
That mindset is understandable in many cases, but it is being taken way too far in Coleman's case. Last season, he scored 191.1 fantasy points, a mark that placed tied for 19th among running backs, but this season fantasy owners currently have him pegged as the No. 33 running back. To get an idea of how much of a production decline that is, note that last season the No. 33 running back scored 140.5 points, or more than 50 fewer points than Coleman posted.
That is a huge drop-off for an offense that could be relying even more on its running backs this season. Steve Sarkisian, the Falcons' new offensive coordinator, sometimes leaned on the ground game to record levels in college. His 2013 Washington Huskies team set a program record for rushing attempts (610) and yards (3,107) in a single season and his 2014 USC offense had Javorius Allen, whose 1,489 rushing yards were the most by a Trojan since 2005.
Sarkisian also has indicated he will fully utilize the Falcons running backs in the passing game as well, saying that Coleman and Devonta Freeman are two electric players who are bad coverage matchups for most defenders.
Barring a complete collapse, there is no way that Coleman is going to see a decline to RB4 level. He has a strong chance of coming close to last year's numbers and if better health helps him improve upon his 332 snaps last season, Coleman could even contend for midtier RB2 status.
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Ingram placed eighth in running back fantasy points last season (242.2), but is down to No. 22 in ADP at the position, which is a 27 percent decline in value based on last year's production figures at that ADP.
The primary reason that should be considered Ingram's production floor is he posted his point total on only 251 combined rushes and receptions. Since Ingram has posted 46 or more receptions in each of the past two seasons, he would only need roughly 200 carries in order to equal last year's workload. Some may think that will be a difficult task given the Saints' addition of Adrian Peterson, but ESPN NFL Nation Saints reporter Mike Triplett says that Ingram is the safe bet to play the most snaps out of this group, so a 200-carry season looks to be par for the course.
Ingram also will be able to rely on one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, as the Saints placed third in my projected offensive line rankings for the 2017 season.
Meanwhile, Kamara showed incredible home run ability at times during his Tennessee tenure, as he became the only Volunteers player to ever rack up 300 or more yards in a single game and was only the second Tennessee player to post 100 or more yards rushing and receiving in the same game. His 50-yard touchdown burst against the Los Angeles Chargers this past weekend illustrates that Kamara's breakaway speed can translate to pro-level production as well.
Travaris Cadet finished 51st among running backs last season while serving as the Saints' third-down back. That should be Kamara's role this season, but he is generally going undrafted. This disparity makes him a great waiver-wire pickup in smaller leagues and a late-round pick with tremendous upside potential in deeper leagues.
Injuries to Edelman, Ware, Meredith shake up rankings
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
8/28/17
An NFL game that actually counts in the standings is scheduled for a week from Thursday, as the Kansas City Chiefs will travel to face the New England Patriots to open the 2017 regular season. It’s been a notably rough preseason weekend full of serious injuries and those AFC contenders were arguably affected the most, as Chiefs starting running back Spencer Ware and Patriots standout wide receiver Julian Edelman suffered season-ending knee injuries.
While these NFL teams have replacements lined up, fantasy owners who had already selected Ware and Edelman can’t be the least bit pleased. Truth be told, neither of these players were ending up on my teams, for different reasons, but nobody enjoys seeing significant injuries removing top players from the game. And to think, these games were simply meaningless. There’s one more week of preseason, but mercifully most fantasy relevant options will not be suiting up.
As for the Chiefs, I had become thisclose to moving rookie Kareem Hunt ahead of Ware anyway, half expecting the Toledo product was going to usurp the starting role from the veteran before Week 1, or at some point in September. Ware was far from efficient last season, didn’t find the end zone much and one could easily argue Hunt, a third-round draft pick, is simply better, albeit obviously inexperienced. Now one of my favorite sleepers can no longer carry that designation!
As a result, I’ve moved Hunt into my top 15 running backs, a potential late third-round choice, and nestled among the other top rookies. He’s right after Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey, and ahead of Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon. Hey, all these guys are good, potentially awesome. They simply crave opportunity. Nobody knows if all five of them will end up stars and earning our love, as having this many rookies do so would be historic, but that’s a chance I’m willing to take. I did move Chiefs backup Charcandrick West into my top-60 running backs in case he matters, but don’t expect it. And don’t bother with C.J. Spiller.
As for the Patriots, even in PPR settings Edelman had been passed for fantasy value by new teammate Brandin Cooks, a touchdown maker on the outside who complements the team’s running game and tight end Rob Gronkowski so well. The Patriots used Edelman quite often from the slot, where he had caught 90 or more passes three times in four seasons -- and likely would have been 4-for-4 if not for injury in 2015 -- but slot receivers are easier to find than speedy outside threats. They also don’t tend to score many touchdowns, which was an issue with Edelman in fantasy. The Patriots can turn to Danny Amendola, who basically replaced Edelman in the slot in 2015, to similar but less statistical fanfare.
Because this is the Patriots, however, more than one fellow is likely to benefit, or at least be affected. On the Chiefs, it is mostly one guy. While the Patriots use many offensive sets, they were likely to use Chris Hogan mostly on the outside, and while it can be argued his value rises with Edelman’s demise, it’s not enough to make him a coveted player. I moved Hogan and Amendola into my 12th round. The Patriots can use their many running backs as receivers as well. And let’s be honest: Nobody knows what Pats head coach Bill Belichick will do. If you want to draft Hogan in Round 7, be my guest. Take Rex Burkhead in the eighth round, too. I can’t say Belichick won’t heavily rely on them.
Ultimately, as we try to define fantasy value, the Edelman injury drove me to move Cooks into my top 10 at wide receiver, for he should see more targets as a result and there’s upside for bigger numbers than he produced in New Orleans with Drew Brees. Gronkowski moved up a few spots in the overall, while Hogan and Amendola become reasonable late-round picks. And no, I don’t think Tom Brady’s overall numbers are affected here.
While Ware and Edelman were each being selected among the top 20 at their respective positions and top 50 overall, there was another major knee debacle this weekend to a relevant fantasy option and it shouldn’t be ignored. Chicago Bears wide receiver Cameron Meredith had seen his stock rise recently, as fantasy owners realized the Bears really could have a reasonable passing game this season, and he was the top target. Now he’s not. At the time he hurt his knee Sunday, Meredith was among the top risers in ESPN ADP over the past week.
Fantasy owners will likely get excited about West Virginia product Kevin White, the No. 7 overall pick in the 2015 draft who has caught 19 passes in two years, and I’m not saying that’s wrong, but I’m ranking former Titans castoff Kendall Wright similar to White. Wright is an experienced slot option and reportedly healthy. White, meanwhile, seems to rarely be healthy. Neither cracks my top-60 wide receivers yet, so in a way, I’m viewing this passing game a tad similar to the Jets, but with more upside. After all, the Bears quarterback is either Mike Glennon or a rookie. The Jets have Josh McCown. Tough to trust the receivers, but Meredith should have overcome it, much like the Cleveland Browns wide receivers last season and this year.
Other weekend QB thoughts: As for those Browns, they have decided Notre Dame rookie DeShone Kizer will start in Week 1 against the Steelers. While it’s easy to be skeptical and avoid the team’s receivers, don’t. Strange things happen and the Browns did have a 1,000-yard receiver last season, and the QB play certainly wasn’t good. Kizer might be good, though probably not Dak Prescott-good. I rank Kizer No. 27 at quarterback for 2017, but in a dynasty format, move him up. … The Jaguars will stick with Blake Bortles for Week 1, but it’s hard to see how he’ll keep the job if he struggles. Chad Henne, who isn’t young or better, lurks. That said, Bortles was a top-10 fantasy QB the past two seasons. We can’t write him off as potentially relevant yet again, but it’s always risky to assume there will be consistent fourth-quarter fantasy points when the team is trailing. … Buffalo starter Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion and while he could and should be ready for Week 1, one has to wonder if the rebuilding Bills might still opt for rookie Nathan Peterman, who didn’t exactly shine statistically against the Ravens. I’ve actually moved Taylor down in my rankings, because I don’t trust the Bills let him start 16 games anymore. It might not be fair, but it’s realistic.
Other weekend RB thoughts: Titans running back DeMarco Murray was starting to worry people because he hadn’t played this preseason, which is inherently foolish, but he got into Sunday’s game and turned six carries into 16 yards. More importantly, he wasn’t carted off the field. He’s fine and could easily have another great season. … While Dallas backup Alfred Morris had the bigger statistical performance than Darren McFadden, rushing nine times for 56 yards, I still view McFadden as the starter the first seven weeks until Ezekiel Elliott comes off suspension. … New Saint Adrian Peterson made his preseason debut to little statistical result, which tells us about as much as if he hadn’t played at all. I’d still take Mark Ingram as a flex. … New Bronco Jamaal Charles, however, shined in his brief action, totaling 42 yards on six touches. I still like rookie De’Angelo Henderson to push overrated incumbent C.J. Anderson in that backfield, but Charles should be involved in the passing game at least. … The sleeper in the Seattle backfield is rookie Chris Carson, and he turned his 10 touches into 90 yards against the Chiefs, but he’s still likely behind Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise. Problem is it’s getting tough to trust any of those guys. So basically what I’m saying is after recommending Hunt for months, I’m turning to Carson if you want an unheralded rookie running back to watch (and Henderson).
Other weekend WR thoughts: Arizona wide receiver John Brown, whom I called a sleeper months ago but backed off recently because head coach Bruce Arians continues to make clear to reporters he’s irritated with the player’s lack of health, caught two passes for 49 yards Saturday, and each was a touchdown. I never doubted the upside and potential relevance. He could be a major deep threat and 1,000-yard receiver. But he’s gotta stay on the field, and there’s not much proof that will happen. … Jets rookie ArDarius Stewart is among my targets in deeper formats, and he caught 82 yards worth of passes and two touchdowns this weekend. On a normal team, since the production came later in the game, it might mean nothing. But the Jets are a mess. Stewart could start opposite Robby Anderson in Week 1. … The lone catch for Indy’s Donte Moncrief on Saturday was a short pass that he turned into a 55-yarder. Again, we know he can play, but can he stay healthy? And the concern over quarterback Andrew Luck being available in September hangs over Colts playmakers.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
8/28/17
An NFL game that actually counts in the standings is scheduled for a week from Thursday, as the Kansas City Chiefs will travel to face the New England Patriots to open the 2017 regular season. It’s been a notably rough preseason weekend full of serious injuries and those AFC contenders were arguably affected the most, as Chiefs starting running back Spencer Ware and Patriots standout wide receiver Julian Edelman suffered season-ending knee injuries.
While these NFL teams have replacements lined up, fantasy owners who had already selected Ware and Edelman can’t be the least bit pleased. Truth be told, neither of these players were ending up on my teams, for different reasons, but nobody enjoys seeing significant injuries removing top players from the game. And to think, these games were simply meaningless. There’s one more week of preseason, but mercifully most fantasy relevant options will not be suiting up.
As for the Chiefs, I had become thisclose to moving rookie Kareem Hunt ahead of Ware anyway, half expecting the Toledo product was going to usurp the starting role from the veteran before Week 1, or at some point in September. Ware was far from efficient last season, didn’t find the end zone much and one could easily argue Hunt, a third-round draft pick, is simply better, albeit obviously inexperienced. Now one of my favorite sleepers can no longer carry that designation!
As a result, I’ve moved Hunt into my top 15 running backs, a potential late third-round choice, and nestled among the other top rookies. He’s right after Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey, and ahead of Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon. Hey, all these guys are good, potentially awesome. They simply crave opportunity. Nobody knows if all five of them will end up stars and earning our love, as having this many rookies do so would be historic, but that’s a chance I’m willing to take. I did move Chiefs backup Charcandrick West into my top-60 running backs in case he matters, but don’t expect it. And don’t bother with C.J. Spiller.
As for the Patriots, even in PPR settings Edelman had been passed for fantasy value by new teammate Brandin Cooks, a touchdown maker on the outside who complements the team’s running game and tight end Rob Gronkowski so well. The Patriots used Edelman quite often from the slot, where he had caught 90 or more passes three times in four seasons -- and likely would have been 4-for-4 if not for injury in 2015 -- but slot receivers are easier to find than speedy outside threats. They also don’t tend to score many touchdowns, which was an issue with Edelman in fantasy. The Patriots can turn to Danny Amendola, who basically replaced Edelman in the slot in 2015, to similar but less statistical fanfare.
Because this is the Patriots, however, more than one fellow is likely to benefit, or at least be affected. On the Chiefs, it is mostly one guy. While the Patriots use many offensive sets, they were likely to use Chris Hogan mostly on the outside, and while it can be argued his value rises with Edelman’s demise, it’s not enough to make him a coveted player. I moved Hogan and Amendola into my 12th round. The Patriots can use their many running backs as receivers as well. And let’s be honest: Nobody knows what Pats head coach Bill Belichick will do. If you want to draft Hogan in Round 7, be my guest. Take Rex Burkhead in the eighth round, too. I can’t say Belichick won’t heavily rely on them.
Ultimately, as we try to define fantasy value, the Edelman injury drove me to move Cooks into my top 10 at wide receiver, for he should see more targets as a result and there’s upside for bigger numbers than he produced in New Orleans with Drew Brees. Gronkowski moved up a few spots in the overall, while Hogan and Amendola become reasonable late-round picks. And no, I don’t think Tom Brady’s overall numbers are affected here.
While Ware and Edelman were each being selected among the top 20 at their respective positions and top 50 overall, there was another major knee debacle this weekend to a relevant fantasy option and it shouldn’t be ignored. Chicago Bears wide receiver Cameron Meredith had seen his stock rise recently, as fantasy owners realized the Bears really could have a reasonable passing game this season, and he was the top target. Now he’s not. At the time he hurt his knee Sunday, Meredith was among the top risers in ESPN ADP over the past week.
Fantasy owners will likely get excited about West Virginia product Kevin White, the No. 7 overall pick in the 2015 draft who has caught 19 passes in two years, and I’m not saying that’s wrong, but I’m ranking former Titans castoff Kendall Wright similar to White. Wright is an experienced slot option and reportedly healthy. White, meanwhile, seems to rarely be healthy. Neither cracks my top-60 wide receivers yet, so in a way, I’m viewing this passing game a tad similar to the Jets, but with more upside. After all, the Bears quarterback is either Mike Glennon or a rookie. The Jets have Josh McCown. Tough to trust the receivers, but Meredith should have overcome it, much like the Cleveland Browns wide receivers last season and this year.
Other weekend QB thoughts: As for those Browns, they have decided Notre Dame rookie DeShone Kizer will start in Week 1 against the Steelers. While it’s easy to be skeptical and avoid the team’s receivers, don’t. Strange things happen and the Browns did have a 1,000-yard receiver last season, and the QB play certainly wasn’t good. Kizer might be good, though probably not Dak Prescott-good. I rank Kizer No. 27 at quarterback for 2017, but in a dynasty format, move him up. … The Jaguars will stick with Blake Bortles for Week 1, but it’s hard to see how he’ll keep the job if he struggles. Chad Henne, who isn’t young or better, lurks. That said, Bortles was a top-10 fantasy QB the past two seasons. We can’t write him off as potentially relevant yet again, but it’s always risky to assume there will be consistent fourth-quarter fantasy points when the team is trailing. … Buffalo starter Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion and while he could and should be ready for Week 1, one has to wonder if the rebuilding Bills might still opt for rookie Nathan Peterman, who didn’t exactly shine statistically against the Ravens. I’ve actually moved Taylor down in my rankings, because I don’t trust the Bills let him start 16 games anymore. It might not be fair, but it’s realistic.
Other weekend RB thoughts: Titans running back DeMarco Murray was starting to worry people because he hadn’t played this preseason, which is inherently foolish, but he got into Sunday’s game and turned six carries into 16 yards. More importantly, he wasn’t carted off the field. He’s fine and could easily have another great season. … While Dallas backup Alfred Morris had the bigger statistical performance than Darren McFadden, rushing nine times for 56 yards, I still view McFadden as the starter the first seven weeks until Ezekiel Elliott comes off suspension. … New Saint Adrian Peterson made his preseason debut to little statistical result, which tells us about as much as if he hadn’t played at all. I’d still take Mark Ingram as a flex. … New Bronco Jamaal Charles, however, shined in his brief action, totaling 42 yards on six touches. I still like rookie De’Angelo Henderson to push overrated incumbent C.J. Anderson in that backfield, but Charles should be involved in the passing game at least. … The sleeper in the Seattle backfield is rookie Chris Carson, and he turned his 10 touches into 90 yards against the Chiefs, but he’s still likely behind Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise. Problem is it’s getting tough to trust any of those guys. So basically what I’m saying is after recommending Hunt for months, I’m turning to Carson if you want an unheralded rookie running back to watch (and Henderson).
Other weekend WR thoughts: Arizona wide receiver John Brown, whom I called a sleeper months ago but backed off recently because head coach Bruce Arians continues to make clear to reporters he’s irritated with the player’s lack of health, caught two passes for 49 yards Saturday, and each was a touchdown. I never doubted the upside and potential relevance. He could be a major deep threat and 1,000-yard receiver. But he’s gotta stay on the field, and there’s not much proof that will happen. … Jets rookie ArDarius Stewart is among my targets in deeper formats, and he caught 82 yards worth of passes and two touchdowns this weekend. On a normal team, since the production came later in the game, it might mean nothing. But the Jets are a mess. Stewart could start opposite Robby Anderson in Week 1. … The lone catch for Indy’s Donte Moncrief on Saturday was a short pass that he turned into a 55-yarder. Again, we know he can play, but can he stay healthy? And the concern over quarterback Andrew Luck being available in September hangs over Colts playmakers.
Top-10 receivers, rookie runners lead list of players I'm targeting
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
8/29/17
Some fantasy analysts will tell you if you’re not finishing first in your league, then it might as well be last. The premise is understandable, that one should do whatever it takes to win, and if that means taking a few chances with draft picks or trades that might not pan out and could reduce your team to rubble before Halloween, then so be it. The win is the thing. The thing is, in the myriad drafts I’ve already taken part in, whether they counted or not, I’ve been cautious. It showed in my oft-misinterpreted “Do Not Draft” article, as I avoided risky players with early picks, and it shows here as I detail some of the players consistently showing up on my many teams.
Really, what better way to establish a list of players whom I like or am targeting than to check my many teams and find repeat names? I’ve drafted first, last and in between and while my favorite spot is definitely first, because securing the safe, reliable Arizona running back David Johnson and then grabbing the best available at the Round 2/3 turn is optimal, I also have had no issues picking last in the first round and eagerly snatching up a pair of the best available there, which tends to be a pair of wide receivers detailed below.
Whatever the case, thank you for following along this busy August as we examined the many tiers of the big three positions -- and many have changed, so check out the constantly updated Insider Cheat Sheet -- as well as draft strategy, players to avoid based on their current values, many breakouts and the preseason weekend wraps. It’s a lot. And now, it’s about time for the games to count. I’ve still got a few drafts to go, and here are players that I’ll likely keep targeting, based on my patterns over the past month.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz
Well, I’m clearly not going to budge on my directive to avoid quarterbacks in the early rounds, and it seems I’ve really been waiting a while. Why not? There’s tremendous depth and these first three fellows specifically could easily end up as top-10 fantasy quarterbacks. Two of them actually did last season. For some reason, people don’t expect repeat performances. For leagues that start two quarterbacks, my strategy this season has been not to reach for a top guy early, but to insure I’m getting two of the top 15 options, even if neither is considered a definite top-10 guy, and Wentz and Rivers fit the mold.
Running back
Melvin Gordon, Christian McCaffrey, Kareem Hunt, Isaiah Crowell, Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, Rob Kelley, Terrance West, Mike Gillislee, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson Jr., Thomas Rawls, Jacquizz Rodgers, Marlon Mack, Chris Carson, De'Angelo Henderson
OK, so that’s a lot of names. First of all, and perhaps subliminally, I do have some level of concern for most every top-10 running back in ESPN ADP other than David Johnson, LeSean McCoy and Gordon. With Le’Veon Bell, it’s more injuries, more suspensions and this ill-timed holdout (as if there is ever a good time). Devonta Freeman just got really rich, and his backup might be as good as he is. Jay Ajayi had nearly half his 2017 rushing yards in three games. DeMarco Murray was awful two seasons ago. Jordan Howard doesn’t catch passes. Todd Gurley, well, I don’t need to tell you. I’d still draft all of them, but what I keep doing is avoiding them and taking wide receivers. Gordon is a notable exception.
After that, I find it odd how the pass-catching options are slipping in drafts since pretty much all these drafts for me have been PPR versions. Two years ago, Woodhead was a top-five PPR option, and he’s capable of duplicating the performance. He’s also capable of missing many games, but the risk in Round 7 is hardly the same as it is if Ajayi or Gurley struggle. Powell will catch 70 passes for the Jets. McCaffrey could do this for Carolina. And Johnson should see improvement as well, even as I do like Crowell.
Those who have followed my work for years know I’m generally not the one recommending rookies, but talent and opportunity have collided for a slew of these guys. The minute the Chiefs drafted Hunt, I was basically all in because I didn’t think Spencer Ware was good enough to hold him off. That situation changed this weekend, but I’ve got shares of Hunt everywhere and was willing to reach a few rounds. Now I’ll really need to reach and it might still be worth it. Frankly, I doubt I’ve ever ranked five rookie running backs among my top 20 at the position, but I’m doing it. And later on I like these sleeper rookies in Indianapolis, Seattle and Denver.
Wide receiver
Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Terrelle Pryor Sr., Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree, Golden Tate, Tyrell Williams, Pierre Garcon, DeVante Parker, Rishard Matthews, Zay Jones, Ted Ginn Jr., John Brown
The recent Odell Beckham Jr. injury situation has me actually pondering Evans as the No. 2 wide receiver, but since I’ve been somewhat alone on having Evans in my top five overall, I’ve still been getting him. I’ve also got Michael Thomas in my top 10. A few of my teams have started with this combination, and I’m all for it. With the Julian Edelman injury, I’ve since moved Cooks into that territory, as well. Don’t enter any draft saying you have to go running back or receiver first and then reverse after that or a tight end in Round -- go best available flex option, whether it’s RB or WR, for seven or more rounds until you need to get a QB or TE.
With Crabtree, Tate, Williams, Garcon and -- until recently -- Parker, the reason I’ve been getting them on my teams is because their value has been misinterpreted. Some believe Crabtree can’t be a top-20 wide receiver alongside Amari Cooper. Um, OK, but Crabtree has scored more fantasy points than his younger, supposedly better teammate both seasons. Tate catches a ton of Stafford passes and will again. Mike Williams isn’t suiting up for Rivers anytime soon, meaning Tyrell Williams gets huge opportunity again. I believe Brian Hoyer and the 49ers can have a reasonable pass offense -- shocking! -- and Garcon isn’t done yet as a key statistical provider. With Parker, his stock has risen quickly with Jay Cutler, but it is warranted.
Later on in drafts, I seem to be ending up receivers like Matthews and Ginn that nobody else likes, which is fine. Yes, the Titans brought in Eric Decker and drafted a rookie, and Matthews is way under the radar, but proven and healthy. And Ginn won’t match the production Cooks enjoyed with Drew Brees, but if he can control the drops somewhat, he can be valuable. With Arizona’s John Brown, he just has to stay healthy.
In a general sense, I’ve been avoiding the rookie wide receivers unless it’s late in a standard league or later in a deeper format, but I do think Buffalo’s Jones has a wonderful opportunity. And while it’s not at the same level because of the quarterback, Cooper Kupp and ArDarius Stewart could start for the Rams and Jets, respectively. And as we saw with last season’s Browns, as Pryor topped 1,000 receiving yards, even teams with quarterback dysfunction can generate relevant wide receivers.
Tight end
Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry, Jack Doyle, Cameron Brate
Nothing against Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen, healthy and reliable options at a position with many question marks, but I’m always waiting at this position. Ertz in Round 10 is tremendous value, and Henry and Doyle should emerge this season. As for Brate, it’s hard to find many rookie tight ends that really aid fantasy owners over the years, and O.J. Howard might have a really bright future, but Brate is this year’s guy.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
8/29/17
Some fantasy analysts will tell you if you’re not finishing first in your league, then it might as well be last. The premise is understandable, that one should do whatever it takes to win, and if that means taking a few chances with draft picks or trades that might not pan out and could reduce your team to rubble before Halloween, then so be it. The win is the thing. The thing is, in the myriad drafts I’ve already taken part in, whether they counted or not, I’ve been cautious. It showed in my oft-misinterpreted “Do Not Draft” article, as I avoided risky players with early picks, and it shows here as I detail some of the players consistently showing up on my many teams.
Really, what better way to establish a list of players whom I like or am targeting than to check my many teams and find repeat names? I’ve drafted first, last and in between and while my favorite spot is definitely first, because securing the safe, reliable Arizona running back David Johnson and then grabbing the best available at the Round 2/3 turn is optimal, I also have had no issues picking last in the first round and eagerly snatching up a pair of the best available there, which tends to be a pair of wide receivers detailed below.
Whatever the case, thank you for following along this busy August as we examined the many tiers of the big three positions -- and many have changed, so check out the constantly updated Insider Cheat Sheet -- as well as draft strategy, players to avoid based on their current values, many breakouts and the preseason weekend wraps. It’s a lot. And now, it’s about time for the games to count. I’ve still got a few drafts to go, and here are players that I’ll likely keep targeting, based on my patterns over the past month.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz
Well, I’m clearly not going to budge on my directive to avoid quarterbacks in the early rounds, and it seems I’ve really been waiting a while. Why not? There’s tremendous depth and these first three fellows specifically could easily end up as top-10 fantasy quarterbacks. Two of them actually did last season. For some reason, people don’t expect repeat performances. For leagues that start two quarterbacks, my strategy this season has been not to reach for a top guy early, but to insure I’m getting two of the top 15 options, even if neither is considered a definite top-10 guy, and Wentz and Rivers fit the mold.
Running back
Melvin Gordon, Christian McCaffrey, Kareem Hunt, Isaiah Crowell, Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, Rob Kelley, Terrance West, Mike Gillislee, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson Jr., Thomas Rawls, Jacquizz Rodgers, Marlon Mack, Chris Carson, De'Angelo Henderson
OK, so that’s a lot of names. First of all, and perhaps subliminally, I do have some level of concern for most every top-10 running back in ESPN ADP other than David Johnson, LeSean McCoy and Gordon. With Le’Veon Bell, it’s more injuries, more suspensions and this ill-timed holdout (as if there is ever a good time). Devonta Freeman just got really rich, and his backup might be as good as he is. Jay Ajayi had nearly half his 2017 rushing yards in three games. DeMarco Murray was awful two seasons ago. Jordan Howard doesn’t catch passes. Todd Gurley, well, I don’t need to tell you. I’d still draft all of them, but what I keep doing is avoiding them and taking wide receivers. Gordon is a notable exception.
After that, I find it odd how the pass-catching options are slipping in drafts since pretty much all these drafts for me have been PPR versions. Two years ago, Woodhead was a top-five PPR option, and he’s capable of duplicating the performance. He’s also capable of missing many games, but the risk in Round 7 is hardly the same as it is if Ajayi or Gurley struggle. Powell will catch 70 passes for the Jets. McCaffrey could do this for Carolina. And Johnson should see improvement as well, even as I do like Crowell.
Those who have followed my work for years know I’m generally not the one recommending rookies, but talent and opportunity have collided for a slew of these guys. The minute the Chiefs drafted Hunt, I was basically all in because I didn’t think Spencer Ware was good enough to hold him off. That situation changed this weekend, but I’ve got shares of Hunt everywhere and was willing to reach a few rounds. Now I’ll really need to reach and it might still be worth it. Frankly, I doubt I’ve ever ranked five rookie running backs among my top 20 at the position, but I’m doing it. And later on I like these sleeper rookies in Indianapolis, Seattle and Denver.
Wide receiver
Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Terrelle Pryor Sr., Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree, Golden Tate, Tyrell Williams, Pierre Garcon, DeVante Parker, Rishard Matthews, Zay Jones, Ted Ginn Jr., John Brown
The recent Odell Beckham Jr. injury situation has me actually pondering Evans as the No. 2 wide receiver, but since I’ve been somewhat alone on having Evans in my top five overall, I’ve still been getting him. I’ve also got Michael Thomas in my top 10. A few of my teams have started with this combination, and I’m all for it. With the Julian Edelman injury, I’ve since moved Cooks into that territory, as well. Don’t enter any draft saying you have to go running back or receiver first and then reverse after that or a tight end in Round -- go best available flex option, whether it’s RB or WR, for seven or more rounds until you need to get a QB or TE.
With Crabtree, Tate, Williams, Garcon and -- until recently -- Parker, the reason I’ve been getting them on my teams is because their value has been misinterpreted. Some believe Crabtree can’t be a top-20 wide receiver alongside Amari Cooper. Um, OK, but Crabtree has scored more fantasy points than his younger, supposedly better teammate both seasons. Tate catches a ton of Stafford passes and will again. Mike Williams isn’t suiting up for Rivers anytime soon, meaning Tyrell Williams gets huge opportunity again. I believe Brian Hoyer and the 49ers can have a reasonable pass offense -- shocking! -- and Garcon isn’t done yet as a key statistical provider. With Parker, his stock has risen quickly with Jay Cutler, but it is warranted.
Later on in drafts, I seem to be ending up receivers like Matthews and Ginn that nobody else likes, which is fine. Yes, the Titans brought in Eric Decker and drafted a rookie, and Matthews is way under the radar, but proven and healthy. And Ginn won’t match the production Cooks enjoyed with Drew Brees, but if he can control the drops somewhat, he can be valuable. With Arizona’s John Brown, he just has to stay healthy.
In a general sense, I’ve been avoiding the rookie wide receivers unless it’s late in a standard league or later in a deeper format, but I do think Buffalo’s Jones has a wonderful opportunity. And while it’s not at the same level because of the quarterback, Cooper Kupp and ArDarius Stewart could start for the Rams and Jets, respectively. And as we saw with last season’s Browns, as Pryor topped 1,000 receiving yards, even teams with quarterback dysfunction can generate relevant wide receivers.
Tight end
Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry, Jack Doyle, Cameron Brate
Nothing against Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen, healthy and reliable options at a position with many question marks, but I’m always waiting at this position. Ertz in Round 10 is tremendous value, and Henry and Doyle should emerge this season. As for Brate, it’s hard to find many rookie tight ends that really aid fantasy owners over the years, and O.J. Howard might have a really bright future, but Brate is this year’s guy.
Deep-league and dynasty sleepers to stash and monitor
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
8/29/17
Let's be honest. It's hard to mess up your first few picks. Whether you're picking high scorers from 2016, following a cheat sheet or just taking the highest-ranked dude in the draft room, you'll have to go out of your way to truly sabotage your draft.
Things start to get trickier in the middle rounds, however, and get a lot more fun in the later stages. This is especially the case in deep and keeper/dynasty leagues. In these formats, it's important to prioritize more than just short-term success. In deep, season-long leagues, you're looking to find high-ceiling prospects to stash on your bench with the hopes of a late-season emergence. In dynasty formats, you're eyeing similar players, but also those who could make for a viable starting option in a year or two.
Down below is a list of 10 overlooked players who you should be considering for the end of your bench in deep and dynasty formats.
Note: Because rookies are often over-hyped and many are already stashed on the end of benches (and rightly so -- upside of the unknown and all), I don't go into them in detail here. However, I did mention a few rookies to keep an eye on at the very end of the piece.
The potential 2017 starters
Chester Rogers, WR, Indianapolis Colts -- "Tre" went undrafted and appeared to be nothing more than a camp body last offseason. His prospects changed after an impressive preseason that included 14 receptions for 174 yards and one touchdown on 17 targets. Rogers defied the odds by not only making the Colts' 53-man roster but having gone on to play 398 snaps, posting a 33-target, 19-catch, 276-yard, 0 TD stat line in 14 games. Rogers continued his climb up the depth chart during the offseason and had a leg up on Phillip Dorsett and Kamar Aiken for the team's No. 3 wideout job before suffering a hamstring injury in August. The 6-foot-1, 184-pound Grambling State product and young man at a reunion is only 23 years old and, once healthy, is positioned to play a significant role in a high-scoring offense led (once healthy) by Andrew Luck.
Top 80 fantasy football rookie rankings for dynasty leagues
Which incoming NFL rookies will have the biggest fantasy impact? Mike Clay ranks the former college stars set to shine on the NFL stage.
Ricardo Louis, WR, Cleveland Browns -- Louis was an unheralded fourth-round pick during a 2016 NFL draft that saw the Browns draft three other wide receivers and WR/TE Seth DeValve. Louis went on to play 303 snaps, posting an unimpressive 33-18-205-0 line that included four drops. The Auburn product stands 6-foot-2 and generated league interest after showing off his terrific athleticism at the combine. Louis ran a 4.43 40-yard dash, posted the longest broad jump (132 inches) and managed 18 reps on the bench. A versatile weapon, Louis was utilized as a rusher and receiver at Auburn, although he didn't register a carry as a rookie. Offseason reports on Louis have been very positive, and the 23-year-old is the favorite to open his second season as Cleveland's No. 3 receiver.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs -- Robinson is another wide receiver who was selected in the fourth round last year, but who has received little chatter about a potential second-year leap. Robinson's final season at Florida and combine performance were rather nondescript, but he's a quick, flashy player who drew Mike Wallace comparisons as a potential lid-lifter at the pro level. Kansas City cut ties with Jeremy Maclin during the offseason, which opens the door for Robinson to compete with the likes of Chris Conley, Albert Wilson and rookie Jehu Chesson for snaps and targets behind Tyreek Hill. Depth receivers in Kansas City have had little fantasy value, but playing time is up for grabs for Robinson, and this offense figures to have a different look in 2018 when Patrick Mahomes II is likely to be under center.
The specialists
Jalen Richard, RB, Oakland Raiders -- Richard went undrafted last year, but he showed enough on 13 preseason touches to make Oakland's 53-man roster. The 5-foot-8, 207-pound scat back could not have started his NFL career better, exploding for a 75-yard touchdown on his first carry. He went on to average 5.9 yards per carry (second-highest at the position) and 2.7 yards after contact (third) on 83 carries, while also adding 29 receptions, 194 yards and a pair of touchdowns as a change-of-pace back to Latavius Murray. Marshawn Lynch is now Oakland's feature back, and 2016 fifth-round pick DeAndre Washington is the favorite to handle handcuff duties, but Richard is only 23 years old and played well enough as a rookie that he's well worth stashing.
Xavier Grimble, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers -- Grimble went undrafted in 2014 but has worked his way up the depth chart and into fantasy relevance over the past several seasons. The Steelers cut Ladarius Green loose during the offseason, which positions Grimble in a competition with Jesse James for snaps at tight end in one of the league's best offenses. Grimble made his NFL debut last season and posted a 20-11-118-2 line over 181 snaps. Though James the favorite for the starting gig in Pittsburgh, Grimble is expected to be on the field and a candidate for targets when the team is near the goal line. The 24-year-old is a sneaky bet for a half-dozen touchdowns.
Erik Swoope, TE, Indianapolis Colts -- Jack Doyle was one of fantasy's top breakout tight ends last year, but ESPN NFL Nation Colts reporter Mike Wells has suggested Doyle could do more blocking this season, which would allow ex-Miami-basketball star Swoope to emerge as the team's top receiving target at the position. Swoope, who had never played organized football before signing with the Colts in 2014, played 240 snaps last season and averaged a ridiculous 19.8 yards per reception on 15 catches. The 25-year-old is a near lock to play a bigger role in 2017, though a mid-August knee scope likely means a slow start to the year.
The post-hype dart throws
Matt Jones hasn't done much as a pro, but that doesn't mean he couldn't make a mark down the road. Photo by Daniel Kucin Jr./Icon Sportswire
Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins -- Let's get this out of the way first: I didn't like Jones as a prospect out of Florida and was surprised he was selected in the third round of the 2015 NFL draft. Jones was also one of the least effective runners in the NFL as a rookie, and his 2016 flameout was far from a surprise. That said, a closer look at Jones' 2016 production suggests there's still hope for a rebound. Jones carried the ball 99 times for 460 yards and three touchdowns. His 4.6 YPC ranked 20th in the league, and his 2.0 YAC ranked 17th. That was a heck of a turnaround after he posted 3.4/1.4 marks on 144 rookie-season carries. Jones also caught all eight of his targets and sports a career receiving line of 33-24-379-1. The reason Jones was benched wasn't effectiveness, it was turnovers. He fumbled three times to bring his career total to seven on 243 touches. Jones remains on the Redskins' roster, but he's buried behind Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, and thus a likely cut prior to Week 1. If he can fix his turnover issue, Jones will have a shot to re-emerge down the road. After all, he's only 24 years old and sports a massive 6-foot-2, 231-pound frame.
Andre Williams, RB, Los Angeles Chargers -- Williams is yet another player who I've been extremely hard on, as his career production entering last year was nothing short of awful. Williams played a gigantic role with the Giants as a rookie but was held to only 3.3 YPC on 217 carries. He was even worse in his second year, posting a 2.9 YPC over 88 attempts. The Giants eventually waived Williams, and he landed with the Chargers. Williams performed well in his only game last season, posting an 18-87-0 rushing line in Week 17. Granted it was a very small sample of work, but Williams looked better than in the past. And the improved play isn't completely shocking when you consider that he was no longer in a Ben McAdoo offense that has yet to post a successful rushing season and is a jacked 5-foot-11, 230-pound former Doak Walker Award winner and Heisman Trophy finalist. The 24-year-old is currently fighting with Branden Oliver for handcuff duties behind Melvin Gordon. If Gordon misses time, which he has each of his first two NFL seasons, Williams will have his shot at redemption.
The pure stashes
Rico Gathers, TE, Dallas Cowboys -- Gathers is a former basketball player and 2016 sixth-round pick who has generated recent hype, thanks to a highly productive preseason. Gathers is a massive specimen at 6-foot-6, 290 pounds, but like the aforementioned Swoope, Gathers did not play football in high school or college. This is clearly a raw player with a ton of upside. He's likely to begin 2017 as nothing more than a situational goal line target, but expect Dallas to continue grooming Gathers as an eventual heir to 35-year-old Jason Witten.
Stephen Anderson, TE, Houston Texans -- Whether it's heavy sets or the barrage of targets in 2016, Bill O'Brien's offense has been kind to the tight end position. Anderson was a relatively unsung prospect when he entered the league last year, but he went on to sign with Houston as an undrafted free agent and won the No. 3 job behind C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. Anderson's size (6-foot-2, 230 pounds) figures to limit his ability to work as an in-line blocker, but he has upside as a receiver and his 4.64 wheels supply him with big-play ability. Anderson is a name to keep filed away, especially with Fiedorowicz entering a contract year.
The rookies
Though I excluded rookies from this piece, there are overlooked first-year players to watch and monitor who are an injury or depth chart adjustment away from a sizable role. They include 49ers TE George Kittle, Chiefs WR Jehu Chesson, Falcons RB Brian Hill, Jets RB Elijah McGuire, Bills QB Nathan Peterman, Seahawks RB Chris Carson, Giants RB Wayne Gallman, Cardinals WR Chad Williams and Eagles WR Mack Hollins.
A few additional rookies to keep stashed in dynasty leagues are Patriots WR Austin Carr, Raiders RB Elijah Hood, Bengals WR Josh Malone, Rams WR Josh Reynolds, Broncos TE Jake Butt and Packers WR Malachi Dupre.
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
8/29/17
Let's be honest. It's hard to mess up your first few picks. Whether you're picking high scorers from 2016, following a cheat sheet or just taking the highest-ranked dude in the draft room, you'll have to go out of your way to truly sabotage your draft.
Things start to get trickier in the middle rounds, however, and get a lot more fun in the later stages. This is especially the case in deep and keeper/dynasty leagues. In these formats, it's important to prioritize more than just short-term success. In deep, season-long leagues, you're looking to find high-ceiling prospects to stash on your bench with the hopes of a late-season emergence. In dynasty formats, you're eyeing similar players, but also those who could make for a viable starting option in a year or two.
Down below is a list of 10 overlooked players who you should be considering for the end of your bench in deep and dynasty formats.
Note: Because rookies are often over-hyped and many are already stashed on the end of benches (and rightly so -- upside of the unknown and all), I don't go into them in detail here. However, I did mention a few rookies to keep an eye on at the very end of the piece.
The potential 2017 starters
Chester Rogers, WR, Indianapolis Colts -- "Tre" went undrafted and appeared to be nothing more than a camp body last offseason. His prospects changed after an impressive preseason that included 14 receptions for 174 yards and one touchdown on 17 targets. Rogers defied the odds by not only making the Colts' 53-man roster but having gone on to play 398 snaps, posting a 33-target, 19-catch, 276-yard, 0 TD stat line in 14 games. Rogers continued his climb up the depth chart during the offseason and had a leg up on Phillip Dorsett and Kamar Aiken for the team's No. 3 wideout job before suffering a hamstring injury in August. The 6-foot-1, 184-pound Grambling State product and young man at a reunion is only 23 years old and, once healthy, is positioned to play a significant role in a high-scoring offense led (once healthy) by Andrew Luck.
Top 80 fantasy football rookie rankings for dynasty leagues
Which incoming NFL rookies will have the biggest fantasy impact? Mike Clay ranks the former college stars set to shine on the NFL stage.
Ricardo Louis, WR, Cleveland Browns -- Louis was an unheralded fourth-round pick during a 2016 NFL draft that saw the Browns draft three other wide receivers and WR/TE Seth DeValve. Louis went on to play 303 snaps, posting an unimpressive 33-18-205-0 line that included four drops. The Auburn product stands 6-foot-2 and generated league interest after showing off his terrific athleticism at the combine. Louis ran a 4.43 40-yard dash, posted the longest broad jump (132 inches) and managed 18 reps on the bench. A versatile weapon, Louis was utilized as a rusher and receiver at Auburn, although he didn't register a carry as a rookie. Offseason reports on Louis have been very positive, and the 23-year-old is the favorite to open his second season as Cleveland's No. 3 receiver.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs -- Robinson is another wide receiver who was selected in the fourth round last year, but who has received little chatter about a potential second-year leap. Robinson's final season at Florida and combine performance were rather nondescript, but he's a quick, flashy player who drew Mike Wallace comparisons as a potential lid-lifter at the pro level. Kansas City cut ties with Jeremy Maclin during the offseason, which opens the door for Robinson to compete with the likes of Chris Conley, Albert Wilson and rookie Jehu Chesson for snaps and targets behind Tyreek Hill. Depth receivers in Kansas City have had little fantasy value, but playing time is up for grabs for Robinson, and this offense figures to have a different look in 2018 when Patrick Mahomes II is likely to be under center.
The specialists
Jalen Richard, RB, Oakland Raiders -- Richard went undrafted last year, but he showed enough on 13 preseason touches to make Oakland's 53-man roster. The 5-foot-8, 207-pound scat back could not have started his NFL career better, exploding for a 75-yard touchdown on his first carry. He went on to average 5.9 yards per carry (second-highest at the position) and 2.7 yards after contact (third) on 83 carries, while also adding 29 receptions, 194 yards and a pair of touchdowns as a change-of-pace back to Latavius Murray. Marshawn Lynch is now Oakland's feature back, and 2016 fifth-round pick DeAndre Washington is the favorite to handle handcuff duties, but Richard is only 23 years old and played well enough as a rookie that he's well worth stashing.
Xavier Grimble, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers -- Grimble went undrafted in 2014 but has worked his way up the depth chart and into fantasy relevance over the past several seasons. The Steelers cut Ladarius Green loose during the offseason, which positions Grimble in a competition with Jesse James for snaps at tight end in one of the league's best offenses. Grimble made his NFL debut last season and posted a 20-11-118-2 line over 181 snaps. Though James the favorite for the starting gig in Pittsburgh, Grimble is expected to be on the field and a candidate for targets when the team is near the goal line. The 24-year-old is a sneaky bet for a half-dozen touchdowns.
Erik Swoope, TE, Indianapolis Colts -- Jack Doyle was one of fantasy's top breakout tight ends last year, but ESPN NFL Nation Colts reporter Mike Wells has suggested Doyle could do more blocking this season, which would allow ex-Miami-basketball star Swoope to emerge as the team's top receiving target at the position. Swoope, who had never played organized football before signing with the Colts in 2014, played 240 snaps last season and averaged a ridiculous 19.8 yards per reception on 15 catches. The 25-year-old is a near lock to play a bigger role in 2017, though a mid-August knee scope likely means a slow start to the year.
The post-hype dart throws
Matt Jones hasn't done much as a pro, but that doesn't mean he couldn't make a mark down the road. Photo by Daniel Kucin Jr./Icon Sportswire
Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins -- Let's get this out of the way first: I didn't like Jones as a prospect out of Florida and was surprised he was selected in the third round of the 2015 NFL draft. Jones was also one of the least effective runners in the NFL as a rookie, and his 2016 flameout was far from a surprise. That said, a closer look at Jones' 2016 production suggests there's still hope for a rebound. Jones carried the ball 99 times for 460 yards and three touchdowns. His 4.6 YPC ranked 20th in the league, and his 2.0 YAC ranked 17th. That was a heck of a turnaround after he posted 3.4/1.4 marks on 144 rookie-season carries. Jones also caught all eight of his targets and sports a career receiving line of 33-24-379-1. The reason Jones was benched wasn't effectiveness, it was turnovers. He fumbled three times to bring his career total to seven on 243 touches. Jones remains on the Redskins' roster, but he's buried behind Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, and thus a likely cut prior to Week 1. If he can fix his turnover issue, Jones will have a shot to re-emerge down the road. After all, he's only 24 years old and sports a massive 6-foot-2, 231-pound frame.
Andre Williams, RB, Los Angeles Chargers -- Williams is yet another player who I've been extremely hard on, as his career production entering last year was nothing short of awful. Williams played a gigantic role with the Giants as a rookie but was held to only 3.3 YPC on 217 carries. He was even worse in his second year, posting a 2.9 YPC over 88 attempts. The Giants eventually waived Williams, and he landed with the Chargers. Williams performed well in his only game last season, posting an 18-87-0 rushing line in Week 17. Granted it was a very small sample of work, but Williams looked better than in the past. And the improved play isn't completely shocking when you consider that he was no longer in a Ben McAdoo offense that has yet to post a successful rushing season and is a jacked 5-foot-11, 230-pound former Doak Walker Award winner and Heisman Trophy finalist. The 24-year-old is currently fighting with Branden Oliver for handcuff duties behind Melvin Gordon. If Gordon misses time, which he has each of his first two NFL seasons, Williams will have his shot at redemption.
The pure stashes
Rico Gathers, TE, Dallas Cowboys -- Gathers is a former basketball player and 2016 sixth-round pick who has generated recent hype, thanks to a highly productive preseason. Gathers is a massive specimen at 6-foot-6, 290 pounds, but like the aforementioned Swoope, Gathers did not play football in high school or college. This is clearly a raw player with a ton of upside. He's likely to begin 2017 as nothing more than a situational goal line target, but expect Dallas to continue grooming Gathers as an eventual heir to 35-year-old Jason Witten.
Stephen Anderson, TE, Houston Texans -- Whether it's heavy sets or the barrage of targets in 2016, Bill O'Brien's offense has been kind to the tight end position. Anderson was a relatively unsung prospect when he entered the league last year, but he went on to sign with Houston as an undrafted free agent and won the No. 3 job behind C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. Anderson's size (6-foot-2, 230 pounds) figures to limit his ability to work as an in-line blocker, but he has upside as a receiver and his 4.64 wheels supply him with big-play ability. Anderson is a name to keep filed away, especially with Fiedorowicz entering a contract year.
The rookies
Though I excluded rookies from this piece, there are overlooked first-year players to watch and monitor who are an injury or depth chart adjustment away from a sizable role. They include 49ers TE George Kittle, Chiefs WR Jehu Chesson, Falcons RB Brian Hill, Jets RB Elijah McGuire, Bills QB Nathan Peterman, Seahawks RB Chris Carson, Giants RB Wayne Gallman, Cardinals WR Chad Williams and Eagles WR Mack Hollins.
A few additional rookies to keep stashed in dynasty leagues are Patriots WR Austin Carr, Raiders RB Elijah Hood, Bengals WR Josh Malone, Rams WR Josh Reynolds, Broncos TE Jake Butt and Packers WR Malachi Dupre.
McShay's rookie fantasy rankings: Top 2017 players, sleepers
Todd McShay
ESPN INSIDER
9/1/17
Every year, a few rookies become real fantasy difference-makers. In 2014, Odell Beckham Jr.'s breakout performance won plenty of fantasy leagues. In 2015, Todd Gurley cruised to the fifth-best season of all running backs, despite sitting out the first three games. And last season, we all saw the performances of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
Let's break down which rookies have the right combination of skill, opportunity and health to shine in Year 1.
Here are my top five fantasy rookies and my top five sleepers:
Top rookies overall
1. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were surprised Cook lasted until Day 2 of the draft, and they traded up to No. 41 to grab him. The reason for that drop was primarily off-the-field issues, because on the field, there's not much this guy can't do. He has looked explosive this preseason and appears set to be the starter, with Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon spelling him. He should catch plenty of passes out of the backfield as well. The real question is whether the offensive line can open up holes for him.
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
When you draft a running back at No. 4 overall, he had better be a special player. That's exactly how I would describe Fournette. He has the power, vision and speed to be a difference-maker. His foot injury will be one to monitor, but it's clear the Jaguars want to run the football as often as possible and avoid having Blake Bortles throw. That should mean plenty of touches for Fournette.
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Another very high draft pick (No. 8), McCaffrey has elite agility and breakaway speed and he is a nightmare to defend one-on-one. Look for the Panthers to move him around, including out of the slot, and to get the ball out of Cam Newton's hands quickly and into McCaffrey's hands in space. He's also dangerous as a punt returner.
4. Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
The No. 5 overall pick has had a quiet preseason because of a hamstring injury, but I don't expect him to take long to get up to speed. A crisp route runner, he should be the No. 1 option in Tennessee and quickly become Marcus Mariota's favorite target.
5. O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson on the outside, teams won't be able to double Howard. He has shown what he can do in big moments (see the past two College Football Playoff National Championships), and he doesn't have to come off the field because he's a solid run-blocker. I expect a big year.
Top sleepers
1. Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
In a crowded Lions pass-catching group, Golladay has flashed this preseason, with his two-touchdown performance standing out in the first game. The third-round pick should see some action as the season progresses.
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Sep 1, 2017
Todd McShay
ESPN Senior Writer
Every year, a few rookies become real fantasy difference-makers. In 2014, Odell Beckham Jr.'s breakout performance won plenty of fantasy leagues. In 2015, Todd Gurley cruised to the fifth-best season of all running backs, despite sitting out the first three games. And last season, we all saw the performances of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
Let's break down which rookies have the right combination of skill, opportunity and health to shine in Year 1.
Here are my top five fantasy rookies and my top five sleepers:
Top rookies overall
1. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were surprised Cook lasted until Day 2 of the draft, and they traded up to No. 41 to grab him. The reason for that drop was primarily off-the-field issues, because on the field, there's not much this guy can't do. He has looked explosive this preseason and appears set to be the starter, with Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon spelling him. He should catch plenty of passes out of the backfield as well. The real question is whether the offensive line can open up holes for him.
Dalvin Cook looks like he'll be a weapon in both the rushing and passing games for the Vikings this season. Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
When you draft a running back at No. 4 overall, he had better be a special player. That's exactly how I would describe Fournette. He has the power, vision and speed to be a difference-maker. His foot injury will be one to monitor, but it's clear the Jaguars want to run the football as often as possible and avoid having Blake Bortles throw. That should mean plenty of touches for Fournette.
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Another very high draft pick (No. 8), McCaffrey has elite agility and breakaway speed and he is a nightmare to defend one-on-one. Look for the Panthers to move him around, including out of the slot, and to get the ball out of Cam Newton's hands quickly and into McCaffrey's hands in space. He's also dangerous as a punt returner.
4. Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
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The No. 5 overall pick has had a quiet preseason because of a hamstring injury, but I don't expect him to take long to get up to speed. A crisp route runner, he should be the No. 1 option in Tennessee and quickly become Marcus Mariota's favorite target.
5. O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson on the outside, teams won't be able to double Howard. He has shown what he can do in big moments (see the past two College Football Playoff National Championships), and he doesn't have to come off the field because he's a solid run-blocker. I expect a big year.
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Top sleepers
1. Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
In a crowded Lions pass-catching group, Golladay has flashed this preseason, with his two-touchdown performance standing out in the first game. The third-round pick should see some action as the season progresses.
Evan Engram provides Eli Manning with another dynamic pass-catching option. Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
2. Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants
Engram is basically an oversized wide receiver, and he has the size/speed combo to generate mismatches in the slot. There should be plenty of targets to go around, even with Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall in the mix.
3. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Even though Kamara is only third on the depth chart right now, the Saints traded up to pick him, so they must have a plan to get him the ball. Saints running backs caught 127 passes last season, and Kamara excels as a pass-catcher. He has excellent quickness and elusiveness in the open field.
4. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon also is third on the depth chart right now, but he has the most natural talent of any of Cincinnati's running backs -- and is arguably the most talented running back in this year's rookie class. I'd expect his carries to increase as the season progresses -- and the Bengals to find more ways to get him touches.
5. Cooper Kupp, WR, St. Louis Rams
A late-round value, Kupp caught six of his seven targets in the Rams' third preseason game. He broke the FCS records for receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns while at Eastern Washington. He's a Week 1 starter in the slot for the Rams.
Todd McShay
ESPN INSIDER
9/1/17
Every year, a few rookies become real fantasy difference-makers. In 2014, Odell Beckham Jr.'s breakout performance won plenty of fantasy leagues. In 2015, Todd Gurley cruised to the fifth-best season of all running backs, despite sitting out the first three games. And last season, we all saw the performances of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
Let's break down which rookies have the right combination of skill, opportunity and health to shine in Year 1.
Here are my top five fantasy rookies and my top five sleepers:
Top rookies overall
1. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were surprised Cook lasted until Day 2 of the draft, and they traded up to No. 41 to grab him. The reason for that drop was primarily off-the-field issues, because on the field, there's not much this guy can't do. He has looked explosive this preseason and appears set to be the starter, with Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon spelling him. He should catch plenty of passes out of the backfield as well. The real question is whether the offensive line can open up holes for him.
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
When you draft a running back at No. 4 overall, he had better be a special player. That's exactly how I would describe Fournette. He has the power, vision and speed to be a difference-maker. His foot injury will be one to monitor, but it's clear the Jaguars want to run the football as often as possible and avoid having Blake Bortles throw. That should mean plenty of touches for Fournette.
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Another very high draft pick (No. 8), McCaffrey has elite agility and breakaway speed and he is a nightmare to defend one-on-one. Look for the Panthers to move him around, including out of the slot, and to get the ball out of Cam Newton's hands quickly and into McCaffrey's hands in space. He's also dangerous as a punt returner.
4. Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
The No. 5 overall pick has had a quiet preseason because of a hamstring injury, but I don't expect him to take long to get up to speed. A crisp route runner, he should be the No. 1 option in Tennessee and quickly become Marcus Mariota's favorite target.
5. O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson on the outside, teams won't be able to double Howard. He has shown what he can do in big moments (see the past two College Football Playoff National Championships), and he doesn't have to come off the field because he's a solid run-blocker. I expect a big year.
Top sleepers
1. Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
In a crowded Lions pass-catching group, Golladay has flashed this preseason, with his two-touchdown performance standing out in the first game. The third-round pick should see some action as the season progresses.
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McShay's rookie fantasy rankings: Top 2017 players, sleepers
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Fournette and Lacy get the TMR treatment (0:51)
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comment
Sep 1, 2017
Todd McShay
ESPN Senior Writer
Every year, a few rookies become real fantasy difference-makers. In 2014, Odell Beckham Jr.'s breakout performance won plenty of fantasy leagues. In 2015, Todd Gurley cruised to the fifth-best season of all running backs, despite sitting out the first three games. And last season, we all saw the performances of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
Let's break down which rookies have the right combination of skill, opportunity and health to shine in Year 1.
Here are my top five fantasy rookies and my top five sleepers:
Top rookies overall
1. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were surprised Cook lasted until Day 2 of the draft, and they traded up to No. 41 to grab him. The reason for that drop was primarily off-the-field issues, because on the field, there's not much this guy can't do. He has looked explosive this preseason and appears set to be the starter, with Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon spelling him. He should catch plenty of passes out of the backfield as well. The real question is whether the offensive line can open up holes for him.
Dalvin Cook looks like he'll be a weapon in both the rushing and passing games for the Vikings this season. Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
When you draft a running back at No. 4 overall, he had better be a special player. That's exactly how I would describe Fournette. He has the power, vision and speed to be a difference-maker. His foot injury will be one to monitor, but it's clear the Jaguars want to run the football as often as possible and avoid having Blake Bortles throw. That should mean plenty of touches for Fournette.
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Another very high draft pick (No. 8), McCaffrey has elite agility and breakaway speed and he is a nightmare to defend one-on-one. Look for the Panthers to move him around, including out of the slot, and to get the ball out of Cam Newton's hands quickly and into McCaffrey's hands in space. He's also dangerous as a punt returner.
4. Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
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The No. 5 overall pick has had a quiet preseason because of a hamstring injury, but I don't expect him to take long to get up to speed. A crisp route runner, he should be the No. 1 option in Tennessee and quickly become Marcus Mariota's favorite target.
5. O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson on the outside, teams won't be able to double Howard. He has shown what he can do in big moments (see the past two College Football Playoff National Championships), and he doesn't have to come off the field because he's a solid run-blocker. I expect a big year.
ADVERTISEMENT
Top sleepers
1. Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
In a crowded Lions pass-catching group, Golladay has flashed this preseason, with his two-touchdown performance standing out in the first game. The third-round pick should see some action as the season progresses.
Evan Engram provides Eli Manning with another dynamic pass-catching option. Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
2. Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants
Engram is basically an oversized wide receiver, and he has the size/speed combo to generate mismatches in the slot. There should be plenty of targets to go around, even with Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall in the mix.
3. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Even though Kamara is only third on the depth chart right now, the Saints traded up to pick him, so they must have a plan to get him the ball. Saints running backs caught 127 passes last season, and Kamara excels as a pass-catcher. He has excellent quickness and elusiveness in the open field.
4. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon also is third on the depth chart right now, but he has the most natural talent of any of Cincinnati's running backs -- and is arguably the most talented running back in this year's rookie class. I'd expect his carries to increase as the season progresses -- and the Bengals to find more ways to get him touches.
5. Cooper Kupp, WR, St. Louis Rams
A late-round value, Kupp caught six of his seven targets in the Rams' third preseason game. He broke the FCS records for receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns while at Eastern Washington. He's a Week 1 starter in the slot for the Rams.
Is Colts QB Andrew Luck worth drafting at all?
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/4/17
Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer
Fantasy owners really can’t accuse the Indianapolis Colts of being dishonest about the unfortunate situation with Andrew Luck and his troublesome throwing shoulder. On Monday the Colts made it official the star quarterback would not start Week 1, news which shouldn’t have surprised anyone, since we’ve been discussing it as likely for more than a month. I removed Luck from my top-10 quarterback rankings a while ago, speculating we’d see him in October. That might be true -- or it might take longer.
None of this means fantasy owners still drafting in the next few days should affirmatively ignore Luck, an obvious top-five quarterback when healthy, but I have been, and certainly there’s risk in choosing him in the first 10 rounds. It’s one thing for fantasy owners to find great value in selecting suspended running backs with a finite amount of time to be served. The Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell was still terrific in 2016. The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott should be this season, though it’s quite embarrassing we still don’t know his precise status because, well, whatever.
Quarterback is different because there’s incredible depth, so risking an early pick on one we know is hurt makes little sense, at least to me. I realize my colleagues have been preaching value and upside when it comes to Luck and Elliott and even Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams for shallow 10-team formats, since free agency is loaded, but the fact is drafts aren’t always about value. They’re also about roster construction and reliability and statistical floors. Owning several QBs before Week 1 is not ideal. Luck was not placed on the organization’s PUP list, meaning he can return within six weeks and can practice with the team, but it hardly means he starts Weeks 2, 3 or 4. As you might have guessed, I'm not excited to deal with this situation at all, even in shallow leagues. It's not like at running back.
The Colts added modest fuel to the rumor fire this weekend by trading wide receiver Phillip Dorsett, not long ago a first-round pick with mad fantasy upside thanks to Luck (albeit unrealized), to New England for a backup quarterback who actually was added in a few of my deep leagues. Jacoby Brissett might end up relevant, in theory. (So might Dorsett, I suppose.) Scott Tolzien starts this week and it obviously hurts the ranking of remaining Colts wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief and makes the Los Angeles Rams defense mighty attractive. It doesn’t mean Luck is likely to miss September, even though the longer the balky shoulder doesn’t heal and the Colts -- in theory -- struggle, the more it could mean a lost season.
Ultimately, those who have Luck on their fantasy teams shouldn’t feel fooled today, for the shoulder problem has hardly been handled in a secretive manner, as the organization was probably hoping the franchise player would be ready by September, but it didn’t happen. For now, it’s one week. Then it might be two and four and Happy Halloween, the Indy quarterback is dressed in a Brissett costume! I’ve been cautiously avoiding this situation for months and recommending this course of action to others. If you own Luck, there are likely ample replacements on free agency. Meanwhile, I dealt Hilton away in a keeper league for next to nothing. I even avoided one of my favorite annual flex options, old Frank Gore. The Colts might be a mess for a while, or longer, but you had been warned.
Meanwhile, colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft discussed the fantasy repercussions from the many cuts and other roster machinations this weekend, so I’ll try to avoid repeating as we wrap the actual final weekend before the regular season starts on Thursday.
Weekend quarterback news: Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor was just cleared from concussion protocol on Tuesday, which should mean rookie Nathan Peterman won't have to make the Week 1 start. Taylor, thanks to his legs, is more valuable than people realize, but the Bills are rebuilding, so I stopped recommending Taylor weeks ago, because I question Buffalo’s motives here. … Not that anything should happen to Chargers leader Philip Rivers, but it was interesting that the team cut backup Kellen Clemens, leaving athletic Cardale Jones as the No. 2, at least for now.
Weekend running back news: For those drafting this week, yes, the incompetent handling of the Elliott situation does open the possibility there will be no suspension at all. Or it could be all six games, as once prescribed. Nothing like a little clarity with days to go before the season. Elliott has to be considered a top-10 running back for sure if you’re drafting today. … The Bills cut their presumed No. 2 in Jonathan Williams, leaving much speculation about who backs up LeSean McCoy. It should be noted McCoy doesn’t share much. He missed a game in 2016, and all other Bills running backs totaled 156 rushing attempts. Large Mike Tolbert might get some goal-line looks, but you don’t need to own him or Joe Banyard and Taiwan Jones, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if McCoy is eventually dealt.
Houston backup Alfred Blue is supposed to miss a few weeks with a sprained ankle, pushing rookie D’Onta Foreman to No. 2 duties. That’s intriguing for sure, since Lamar Miller wasn’t so great last year. … Former Redskins disappointment Matt Jones ended up with the Colts, but it doesn’t matter. He’s not that good. If Gore struggles because defenses can pack it in against Tolzien, then no Colts runner will succeed. And rookie Marlon Mack is still my pick to emerge. … Six weeks ago I was thinking of then-Buccaneers rookie Jeremy McNichols as a deep sleeper, for the team’s situation was relatively wide open, but the fifth-rounder from Boise State didn’t make the team. He ended up with the 49ers, however, on their practice squad. That’s interesting because the team cut Tim Hightower, leaving undrafted rookie Matt Breida and well-traveled Raheem Mostert as the only guys backing up brittle Carlos Hyde. Breida could matter soon, and perhaps McNichols, eventually.
Weekend wide receiver news: The league did find the time on Friday afternoon to announce Saints starter Willie Snead was suspended for three games, with a deal made to reduce the absence from four games. This immediately sent Ted Ginn Jr.'s stock rising, probably too high. The September winner is probably Brandon Coleman, for he can fill in out of the slot. Don’t be surprised if Coleman is one of the popular free agents being added in September. … The league also officially cleared the Steelers’ Martavis Bryant, a move widely expected all summer, which makes it odd his ADP shot up. … Chargers rookie Mike Williams was, like Luck, removed from the PUP list so he can practice with the team and play before mid-October, but again there’s no guarantee it happens. You want Williams in dynasty formats, but he still might not play much in 2017.
There were also several trades, as good teams with depth moved disappointing options to lesser passing offenses desperate for aid. The Jets got Seattle’s Jermaine Kearse and the argument can be made he instantly becomes the top weapon for Josh McCown. (Yep, that’s the quarterback.) Anyway, I had Robby Anderson and ArDarius Stewart as top-60 wide receivers, and Kearse pushes Stewart out. Someone will catch passes on this team other than the running backs. It’s a bad team, but bad teams trail and throw a lot. … The Browns shouldn’t be that bad, but despite all the young receivers on the team they acquired Sammie Coates from the Steelers. Coates might have dropped a pass while you read this. He’s not so reliable, but could see plenty of snaps after Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman. Don’t assume rookie DeShone Kizer can’t make this group relevant.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/4/17
Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer
Fantasy owners really can’t accuse the Indianapolis Colts of being dishonest about the unfortunate situation with Andrew Luck and his troublesome throwing shoulder. On Monday the Colts made it official the star quarterback would not start Week 1, news which shouldn’t have surprised anyone, since we’ve been discussing it as likely for more than a month. I removed Luck from my top-10 quarterback rankings a while ago, speculating we’d see him in October. That might be true -- or it might take longer.
None of this means fantasy owners still drafting in the next few days should affirmatively ignore Luck, an obvious top-five quarterback when healthy, but I have been, and certainly there’s risk in choosing him in the first 10 rounds. It’s one thing for fantasy owners to find great value in selecting suspended running backs with a finite amount of time to be served. The Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell was still terrific in 2016. The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott should be this season, though it’s quite embarrassing we still don’t know his precise status because, well, whatever.
Quarterback is different because there’s incredible depth, so risking an early pick on one we know is hurt makes little sense, at least to me. I realize my colleagues have been preaching value and upside when it comes to Luck and Elliott and even Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams for shallow 10-team formats, since free agency is loaded, but the fact is drafts aren’t always about value. They’re also about roster construction and reliability and statistical floors. Owning several QBs before Week 1 is not ideal. Luck was not placed on the organization’s PUP list, meaning he can return within six weeks and can practice with the team, but it hardly means he starts Weeks 2, 3 or 4. As you might have guessed, I'm not excited to deal with this situation at all, even in shallow leagues. It's not like at running back.
The Colts added modest fuel to the rumor fire this weekend by trading wide receiver Phillip Dorsett, not long ago a first-round pick with mad fantasy upside thanks to Luck (albeit unrealized), to New England for a backup quarterback who actually was added in a few of my deep leagues. Jacoby Brissett might end up relevant, in theory. (So might Dorsett, I suppose.) Scott Tolzien starts this week and it obviously hurts the ranking of remaining Colts wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief and makes the Los Angeles Rams defense mighty attractive. It doesn’t mean Luck is likely to miss September, even though the longer the balky shoulder doesn’t heal and the Colts -- in theory -- struggle, the more it could mean a lost season.
Ultimately, those who have Luck on their fantasy teams shouldn’t feel fooled today, for the shoulder problem has hardly been handled in a secretive manner, as the organization was probably hoping the franchise player would be ready by September, but it didn’t happen. For now, it’s one week. Then it might be two and four and Happy Halloween, the Indy quarterback is dressed in a Brissett costume! I’ve been cautiously avoiding this situation for months and recommending this course of action to others. If you own Luck, there are likely ample replacements on free agency. Meanwhile, I dealt Hilton away in a keeper league for next to nothing. I even avoided one of my favorite annual flex options, old Frank Gore. The Colts might be a mess for a while, or longer, but you had been warned.
Meanwhile, colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft discussed the fantasy repercussions from the many cuts and other roster machinations this weekend, so I’ll try to avoid repeating as we wrap the actual final weekend before the regular season starts on Thursday.
Weekend quarterback news: Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor was just cleared from concussion protocol on Tuesday, which should mean rookie Nathan Peterman won't have to make the Week 1 start. Taylor, thanks to his legs, is more valuable than people realize, but the Bills are rebuilding, so I stopped recommending Taylor weeks ago, because I question Buffalo’s motives here. … Not that anything should happen to Chargers leader Philip Rivers, but it was interesting that the team cut backup Kellen Clemens, leaving athletic Cardale Jones as the No. 2, at least for now.
Weekend running back news: For those drafting this week, yes, the incompetent handling of the Elliott situation does open the possibility there will be no suspension at all. Or it could be all six games, as once prescribed. Nothing like a little clarity with days to go before the season. Elliott has to be considered a top-10 running back for sure if you’re drafting today. … The Bills cut their presumed No. 2 in Jonathan Williams, leaving much speculation about who backs up LeSean McCoy. It should be noted McCoy doesn’t share much. He missed a game in 2016, and all other Bills running backs totaled 156 rushing attempts. Large Mike Tolbert might get some goal-line looks, but you don’t need to own him or Joe Banyard and Taiwan Jones, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if McCoy is eventually dealt.
Houston backup Alfred Blue is supposed to miss a few weeks with a sprained ankle, pushing rookie D’Onta Foreman to No. 2 duties. That’s intriguing for sure, since Lamar Miller wasn’t so great last year. … Former Redskins disappointment Matt Jones ended up with the Colts, but it doesn’t matter. He’s not that good. If Gore struggles because defenses can pack it in against Tolzien, then no Colts runner will succeed. And rookie Marlon Mack is still my pick to emerge. … Six weeks ago I was thinking of then-Buccaneers rookie Jeremy McNichols as a deep sleeper, for the team’s situation was relatively wide open, but the fifth-rounder from Boise State didn’t make the team. He ended up with the 49ers, however, on their practice squad. That’s interesting because the team cut Tim Hightower, leaving undrafted rookie Matt Breida and well-traveled Raheem Mostert as the only guys backing up brittle Carlos Hyde. Breida could matter soon, and perhaps McNichols, eventually.
Weekend wide receiver news: The league did find the time on Friday afternoon to announce Saints starter Willie Snead was suspended for three games, with a deal made to reduce the absence from four games. This immediately sent Ted Ginn Jr.'s stock rising, probably too high. The September winner is probably Brandon Coleman, for he can fill in out of the slot. Don’t be surprised if Coleman is one of the popular free agents being added in September. … The league also officially cleared the Steelers’ Martavis Bryant, a move widely expected all summer, which makes it odd his ADP shot up. … Chargers rookie Mike Williams was, like Luck, removed from the PUP list so he can practice with the team and play before mid-October, but again there’s no guarantee it happens. You want Williams in dynasty formats, but he still might not play much in 2017.
There were also several trades, as good teams with depth moved disappointing options to lesser passing offenses desperate for aid. The Jets got Seattle’s Jermaine Kearse and the argument can be made he instantly becomes the top weapon for Josh McCown. (Yep, that’s the quarterback.) Anyway, I had Robby Anderson and ArDarius Stewart as top-60 wide receivers, and Kearse pushes Stewart out. Someone will catch passes on this team other than the running backs. It’s a bad team, but bad teams trail and throw a lot. … The Browns shouldn’t be that bad, but despite all the young receivers on the team they acquired Sammie Coates from the Steelers. Coates might have dropped a pass while you read this. He’s not so reliable, but could see plenty of snaps after Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman. Don’t assume rookie DeShone Kizer can’t make this group relevant.
Best and worst wide receiver matchups for fantasy football Week 1
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
9/4/17
By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week.
Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 1 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.
To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet:
Downloadable cheat sheet PDF
Because of the size of the chart in the PDF, here is a key to help you get the most out of it each week:
Rt = Number of routes run by each player during the 2016 season
LWR/Slot/RWR = Percentage of the player's routes run from left wide receiver, the slot, and right wide receiver, respectively
T/R = Targets per pass route
F/R = Fantasy points per pass route
Green suggests an advantage for the offensive player, while red indicates an advantage for the defender
An "S" indicates projected shadow coverage
Advantageous matchups
Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Lions CB Quandre Diggs
Darius Slay is a top-end shadow corner, but he lined up in the slot only four percent of the time last year. Detroit actually allowed the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers last season and will again roll with Diggs inside after he fended off former Raider D.J. Hayden for the gig. Fitzgerald lined up inside on 63 percent of his routes in 2017 and should see Diggs on most of those routes in Week 1. Upgrade him to WR1 territory.
Panthers WRs Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Curtis Samuel vs. 49ers CBs Rashard Robinson, Keith Reaser and K'Waun Williams
Get used to seeing the Panthers in this column, as they have the league's easiest CB slate this season. The fun kicks off with a Week 1 matchup against a 49ers secondary with significant question marks. Robinson -- a fourth-round pick last year -- is an intriguing prospect, but his play fell off as the season went on. Reaser and Williams are replacement-level players who could defer playing time to rookie Ahkello Witherspoon. Benjamin (6-foot-5) and Funchess (6-foot-4) also have a major size advantage on the 49ers' top trio. Upgrade the Panthers' passing game across the board.
Colts WR Donte Moncrief vs. Rams CB Kayvon Webster
The Rams allowed the most fantasy points to opposing left perimeter wide receivers last season. That's where Moncrief lined up on 46 percent of his routes last season. Chester Rogers (53 percent) and T.Y. Hilton (22 percent) will also see some time at the spot. Webster is new to L.A. after working as a depth corner in Denver the past four years. It's likely he'll be more effective than predecessors E.J. Gaines and Mike Jordan, but targets will be headed toward him often with Trumaine Johnson on the other side of the field. This, of course, assumes Johnson won't shadow Hilton. Johnson was asked to shadow only twice last season (Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall) and rarely visits the slot, so it's unlikely that he'll follow Hilton in Week 1. Hilton has a nice matchup in the slot against Nickell Robey-Coleman, but he may also draw a bit of Lamarcus Joyner as well.
Rams WR Sammy Watkins vs. Colts CBs Rashaan Melvin and Quincy Wilson
As cornerback matchups go, Watkins has a very tough schedule this season. That's despite a Week 1 matchup against a weak Colts secondary that will be missing both top corner Vontae Davis and safety Clayton Geathers. With Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp better suited to work inside, Watkins figures to live on the perimeter. It's there that he'll see Melvin and second-round rookie Wilson often on Sunday. Watkins is still learning the Rams' offense, but he's likely ticketed for a quick start considering the light matchup.
Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry vs. Buccaneers CB Robert McClain
A byproduct of some off-the-field drama and Jay Cutler's preseason connection with DeVante Parker, Landry's average draft position took a big dive late in August. Those who took the plunge and drafted Landry figure to benefit out of the gate, as Landry is set up with a nice matchup in the slot against the journeyman McClain. Vernon Hargreaves III played some slot last season, but (a) the 2016 first-round pick is expected to stick on the perimeter in 2017; and (b) Hargreaves was lit up early and often as a rookie anyway. With Hargreaves and Brent Grimes on the outside against Parker and Kenny Stills, Landry is positioned to eat against McClain. Upgrade him.
Vikings WRs Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell and Adam Thielen vs. Saints CBs Marshon Lattimore, Sterling Moore and P.J. Williams
Delvin Breaux is still hurt and won't play in Week 1. That leaves the rookie Lattimore as the Saints' No. 1 corner and Williams and Moore ticketed for major roles. The Saints allowed the third-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers last season. It's hard to imagine much changing this season, at least until Lattimore proves himself and Breaux returns healthy. Upgrade your Vikings receivers, especially Diggs, who is expected to work outside more often this season.
Giants WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall vs. Cowboys CBs Nolan Carroll II and Chidobe Awuzie
Beckham (ankle) is questionable for Week 1, but if he's able to play, make sure he's in your lineup against the Cowboys' new-look and weaker cornerback group. That same advice goes for Marshall, who will work the perimeter opposite Beckham. Sterling Shepard will face off against Orlando Scandrick in the slot, which will be a tougher-than-usual matchup for the second-year receiver.
Seahawks WRs Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson vs. Packers CBs Davon House, Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall
The Packers' secondary was absolutely fleeced last season and it's possible it isn't much better in 2017. Second-round pick Kevin King has yet to earn a starting gig and House was the only other offseason addition. House and Randall both allowed 0.53 fantasy points per route last season, which is worst among the 96 projected "starting" corners this weekend (I'm including nickel corners here). Upgrade all three Seattle wideouts and consider Richardson and Lockett DFS tournament targets.
Tough matchups
Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery vs. Redskins CB Josh Norman
Norman shadowed Jeffery -- then with Chicago -- on 35 of his 40 routes (34 of 35 on the perimeter) in Week 16 last season. Jeffery caught four balls for 78 yards on nine targets against Norman and added one additional 14-yard catch against Kendall Fuller. Expect the two to face off again in Week 1, and though Jeffery had some success last year, Norman remains one of the game's better cover corners. It's a tough matchup and he should be downgraded. As a result of this matchup, Bashaud Breeland will be on Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor will face off with Fuller in the slot. Both receivers should be upgraded and are Week 1 sleepers. Smith makes for an intriguing DFS tournament target.
Saints WR Michael Thomas vs. Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes
Rhodes emerged as one of the game's better shadow corners last season and he's a strong bet to pick up where he left off in 2017. Last season, Rhodes followed Beckham, Jeffery, DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson and Jordy Nelson. With Brandin Cooks gone, Thomas is the Saints' clear No. 1 wideout and can expect shadow treatment from Rhodes. Minnesota allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers last season and Thomas lined up outside on 87 percent of his routes. Especially considering the game is in Minnesota, Thomas is a name to fade in DFS. With Rhodes presumably glued to Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr. is a nice Week 1 sleeper against Trae Waynes and/or Tramaine Brock on the other side of the field. Need an intriguing DFS tournament target? Try 6-foot-6 Brandon Coleman with Willie Snead suspended.
Cowboys WR Dez Bryant vs. Giants CB Janoris Jenkins
Jenkins shadowed Bryant on 56 of his 84 routes during two games between the teams last season. That included 54 of 58 routes on the perimeter. In those games, Bryant managed two catches for 18 yards and no touchdowns on 14 targets, including one 10-yard catch on nine targets against Jenkins. Bryant has the league's hardest cornerback slate this season and -- if last season is any indication -- he'll open 2017 slowly with Jenkins following him around most of the time. Bryant may dodge Jenkins in the slot, but life won't be much easier against standout slot corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Cole Beasley will also have his hands full against Rodgers-Cromartie throughout the game.
Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas vs. Chargers CB Casey Hayward and Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders vs. Chargers CB Jason Verrett
It's very possible this is flip-flopped, but considering Hayward's success against Thomas in two games last season, it's fair to assume the Chargers will stick with the same game plan. With Verrett injured, Hayward shadowed Thomas in both of those meetings. Thomas posted a line of 9 targets, 5 catches, 35 yards and no TDs in Week 6 and an 8-5-79-0 line two weeks later. Thomas did get the better of Hayward -- then with the Packers -- on 14 routes during a Week 8 meeting between the two in 2015. In those 14 routes alone, Thomas posted a 7-5-118-0 line. Sanders, who was covered by Steve Williams and Brandon Flowers (both whom are no longer with the team) on most of his routes, was limited to a 15-8-108-0 line during the two games last year. Hayward and Verrett combine to create one of the league's top cornerback duos, so Thomas and Sanders should be downgraded in this matchup.
Chargers WRs Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin vs Broncos CBs Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby
Harris and Talib were two of the league's best cornerbacks last season and both are back and healthy in 2017. Williams was limited to seven targets, four catches and 32 yards on 69 routes against Denver last season. Allen hasn't played against the Broncos since 2014 when he posted a 21-12-91-1 line in 56 routes that season. He will especially have his hands full up against Harris in the slot. In fact, Denver's defense has had a big impact on how Philip Rivers has distributed targets over the past three years. Against Denver, 47.2 percent of his throws have gone to wide receivers, 29.4 percent to tight ends and 23.4 percent to running backs. Against all other teams, the marks are 55.8 percent, 23.8 percent and 20.3 percent. The Chargers' wide receivers should be downgraded and plan for more targets for Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry.
Lions WR Golden Tate vs. Cardinals CBs Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson
With Anquan Boldin out and Kenny Golladay in this season, Tate is expected to kick to the slot more often. Though the move will keep him away from Peterson a bit more often, he'll still need to deal with a healthy Mathieu whenever he's lined up inside. It's possible Peterson shadows Tate when he's lined up outside, but this is likely to be one of those rare games where he simply plays his side. In that event, Tate figures to draw Justin Bethel a handful of times, which will be his best opportunity at a big play. Downgrade the Detroit wideouts.
Bears WR Kevin White vs. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant
Cameron Meredith is out for the season and Markus Wheaton is expected to miss Week 1 with a hand injury. That leaves White, Kendall Wright (slot) and Josh Bellamy as the Bears' top-three receivers. Trufant shadowed during seven of nine games prior to his season-ending injury last year, so I expect him to follow Chicago's top receiver in Week 1. There are already questions about White's ability following two lost seasons, so especially with the tough matchup in mind, he should be on your bench to kick off the season.
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill vs. Patriots CB Malcolm Butler and Chiefs WR Chris Conley vs. Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore
I hesitate to move the needle too much here simply because Gilmore adds a new dimension to the Patriots secondary and Hill's obscene speed could cause Bill Belichick to get creative in containing Kansas City's clear top target at wideout. I'm downgrading Hill only slightly and Conley shouldn't be on your radar for a starting spot just yet.
Other notes
• Will Ravens CB Jimmy Smith shadow Bengals WR A.J. Green? Doubtful. Consider that Green has lit Smith up for 13 receptions, 194 yards and a touchdown on 17 targets over the past three years.
• Seahawks CB Richard Sherman has not shadowed against Green Bay the past two years, so Jordy Nelson should be "safe."
Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey had success against Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins last season (23-10-94-0 line on 50 routes), but it's hard to know if Jacksonville will choose to shadow for two reasons: 1. A.J. Bouye is a very capable corner opposite Ramsey; and 2. With Will Fuller V out, the Texans don't have a clear second option for Bouye to follow around.
• There was a report floating around that indicated the Browns' Jamar Taylor will shadow the Steelers' Antonio Brown in Week 1. I spoke to two reliable sources who don't expect that to be the case, though. Assuming Taylor doesn't shadow, Jason McCourty and Briean Boddy-Calhoun would cover Brown on the perimeter, with Taylor -- the team's 2016 and projected 2017 slot corner -- handling him inside. Brown lined up in the slot 13 percent of the time last year. It should be all systems go for another big game for Brown.
• Marcus Peters did not shadow at all last season and New England moves its wide receivers around enough that none of their wideouts need to be downgraded.
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
9/4/17
By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week.
Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 1 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.
To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet:
Downloadable cheat sheet PDF
Because of the size of the chart in the PDF, here is a key to help you get the most out of it each week:
Rt = Number of routes run by each player during the 2016 season
LWR/Slot/RWR = Percentage of the player's routes run from left wide receiver, the slot, and right wide receiver, respectively
T/R = Targets per pass route
F/R = Fantasy points per pass route
Green suggests an advantage for the offensive player, while red indicates an advantage for the defender
An "S" indicates projected shadow coverage
Advantageous matchups
Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Lions CB Quandre Diggs
Darius Slay is a top-end shadow corner, but he lined up in the slot only four percent of the time last year. Detroit actually allowed the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers last season and will again roll with Diggs inside after he fended off former Raider D.J. Hayden for the gig. Fitzgerald lined up inside on 63 percent of his routes in 2017 and should see Diggs on most of those routes in Week 1. Upgrade him to WR1 territory.
Panthers WRs Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Curtis Samuel vs. 49ers CBs Rashard Robinson, Keith Reaser and K'Waun Williams
Get used to seeing the Panthers in this column, as they have the league's easiest CB slate this season. The fun kicks off with a Week 1 matchup against a 49ers secondary with significant question marks. Robinson -- a fourth-round pick last year -- is an intriguing prospect, but his play fell off as the season went on. Reaser and Williams are replacement-level players who could defer playing time to rookie Ahkello Witherspoon. Benjamin (6-foot-5) and Funchess (6-foot-4) also have a major size advantage on the 49ers' top trio. Upgrade the Panthers' passing game across the board.
Colts WR Donte Moncrief vs. Rams CB Kayvon Webster
The Rams allowed the most fantasy points to opposing left perimeter wide receivers last season. That's where Moncrief lined up on 46 percent of his routes last season. Chester Rogers (53 percent) and T.Y. Hilton (22 percent) will also see some time at the spot. Webster is new to L.A. after working as a depth corner in Denver the past four years. It's likely he'll be more effective than predecessors E.J. Gaines and Mike Jordan, but targets will be headed toward him often with Trumaine Johnson on the other side of the field. This, of course, assumes Johnson won't shadow Hilton. Johnson was asked to shadow only twice last season (Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall) and rarely visits the slot, so it's unlikely that he'll follow Hilton in Week 1. Hilton has a nice matchup in the slot against Nickell Robey-Coleman, but he may also draw a bit of Lamarcus Joyner as well.
Rams WR Sammy Watkins vs. Colts CBs Rashaan Melvin and Quincy Wilson
As cornerback matchups go, Watkins has a very tough schedule this season. That's despite a Week 1 matchup against a weak Colts secondary that will be missing both top corner Vontae Davis and safety Clayton Geathers. With Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp better suited to work inside, Watkins figures to live on the perimeter. It's there that he'll see Melvin and second-round rookie Wilson often on Sunday. Watkins is still learning the Rams' offense, but he's likely ticketed for a quick start considering the light matchup.
Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry vs. Buccaneers CB Robert McClain
A byproduct of some off-the-field drama and Jay Cutler's preseason connection with DeVante Parker, Landry's average draft position took a big dive late in August. Those who took the plunge and drafted Landry figure to benefit out of the gate, as Landry is set up with a nice matchup in the slot against the journeyman McClain. Vernon Hargreaves III played some slot last season, but (a) the 2016 first-round pick is expected to stick on the perimeter in 2017; and (b) Hargreaves was lit up early and often as a rookie anyway. With Hargreaves and Brent Grimes on the outside against Parker and Kenny Stills, Landry is positioned to eat against McClain. Upgrade him.
Vikings WRs Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell and Adam Thielen vs. Saints CBs Marshon Lattimore, Sterling Moore and P.J. Williams
Delvin Breaux is still hurt and won't play in Week 1. That leaves the rookie Lattimore as the Saints' No. 1 corner and Williams and Moore ticketed for major roles. The Saints allowed the third-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers last season. It's hard to imagine much changing this season, at least until Lattimore proves himself and Breaux returns healthy. Upgrade your Vikings receivers, especially Diggs, who is expected to work outside more often this season.
Giants WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall vs. Cowboys CBs Nolan Carroll II and Chidobe Awuzie
Beckham (ankle) is questionable for Week 1, but if he's able to play, make sure he's in your lineup against the Cowboys' new-look and weaker cornerback group. That same advice goes for Marshall, who will work the perimeter opposite Beckham. Sterling Shepard will face off against Orlando Scandrick in the slot, which will be a tougher-than-usual matchup for the second-year receiver.
Seahawks WRs Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson vs. Packers CBs Davon House, Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall
The Packers' secondary was absolutely fleeced last season and it's possible it isn't much better in 2017. Second-round pick Kevin King has yet to earn a starting gig and House was the only other offseason addition. House and Randall both allowed 0.53 fantasy points per route last season, which is worst among the 96 projected "starting" corners this weekend (I'm including nickel corners here). Upgrade all three Seattle wideouts and consider Richardson and Lockett DFS tournament targets.
Tough matchups
Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery vs. Redskins CB Josh Norman
Norman shadowed Jeffery -- then with Chicago -- on 35 of his 40 routes (34 of 35 on the perimeter) in Week 16 last season. Jeffery caught four balls for 78 yards on nine targets against Norman and added one additional 14-yard catch against Kendall Fuller. Expect the two to face off again in Week 1, and though Jeffery had some success last year, Norman remains one of the game's better cover corners. It's a tough matchup and he should be downgraded. As a result of this matchup, Bashaud Breeland will be on Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor will face off with Fuller in the slot. Both receivers should be upgraded and are Week 1 sleepers. Smith makes for an intriguing DFS tournament target.
Saints WR Michael Thomas vs. Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes
Rhodes emerged as one of the game's better shadow corners last season and he's a strong bet to pick up where he left off in 2017. Last season, Rhodes followed Beckham, Jeffery, DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson and Jordy Nelson. With Brandin Cooks gone, Thomas is the Saints' clear No. 1 wideout and can expect shadow treatment from Rhodes. Minnesota allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers last season and Thomas lined up outside on 87 percent of his routes. Especially considering the game is in Minnesota, Thomas is a name to fade in DFS. With Rhodes presumably glued to Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr. is a nice Week 1 sleeper against Trae Waynes and/or Tramaine Brock on the other side of the field. Need an intriguing DFS tournament target? Try 6-foot-6 Brandon Coleman with Willie Snead suspended.
Cowboys WR Dez Bryant vs. Giants CB Janoris Jenkins
Jenkins shadowed Bryant on 56 of his 84 routes during two games between the teams last season. That included 54 of 58 routes on the perimeter. In those games, Bryant managed two catches for 18 yards and no touchdowns on 14 targets, including one 10-yard catch on nine targets against Jenkins. Bryant has the league's hardest cornerback slate this season and -- if last season is any indication -- he'll open 2017 slowly with Jenkins following him around most of the time. Bryant may dodge Jenkins in the slot, but life won't be much easier against standout slot corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Cole Beasley will also have his hands full against Rodgers-Cromartie throughout the game.
Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas vs. Chargers CB Casey Hayward and Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders vs. Chargers CB Jason Verrett
It's very possible this is flip-flopped, but considering Hayward's success against Thomas in two games last season, it's fair to assume the Chargers will stick with the same game plan. With Verrett injured, Hayward shadowed Thomas in both of those meetings. Thomas posted a line of 9 targets, 5 catches, 35 yards and no TDs in Week 6 and an 8-5-79-0 line two weeks later. Thomas did get the better of Hayward -- then with the Packers -- on 14 routes during a Week 8 meeting between the two in 2015. In those 14 routes alone, Thomas posted a 7-5-118-0 line. Sanders, who was covered by Steve Williams and Brandon Flowers (both whom are no longer with the team) on most of his routes, was limited to a 15-8-108-0 line during the two games last year. Hayward and Verrett combine to create one of the league's top cornerback duos, so Thomas and Sanders should be downgraded in this matchup.
Chargers WRs Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin vs Broncos CBs Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby
Harris and Talib were two of the league's best cornerbacks last season and both are back and healthy in 2017. Williams was limited to seven targets, four catches and 32 yards on 69 routes against Denver last season. Allen hasn't played against the Broncos since 2014 when he posted a 21-12-91-1 line in 56 routes that season. He will especially have his hands full up against Harris in the slot. In fact, Denver's defense has had a big impact on how Philip Rivers has distributed targets over the past three years. Against Denver, 47.2 percent of his throws have gone to wide receivers, 29.4 percent to tight ends and 23.4 percent to running backs. Against all other teams, the marks are 55.8 percent, 23.8 percent and 20.3 percent. The Chargers' wide receivers should be downgraded and plan for more targets for Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry.
Lions WR Golden Tate vs. Cardinals CBs Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson
With Anquan Boldin out and Kenny Golladay in this season, Tate is expected to kick to the slot more often. Though the move will keep him away from Peterson a bit more often, he'll still need to deal with a healthy Mathieu whenever he's lined up inside. It's possible Peterson shadows Tate when he's lined up outside, but this is likely to be one of those rare games where he simply plays his side. In that event, Tate figures to draw Justin Bethel a handful of times, which will be his best opportunity at a big play. Downgrade the Detroit wideouts.
Bears WR Kevin White vs. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant
Cameron Meredith is out for the season and Markus Wheaton is expected to miss Week 1 with a hand injury. That leaves White, Kendall Wright (slot) and Josh Bellamy as the Bears' top-three receivers. Trufant shadowed during seven of nine games prior to his season-ending injury last year, so I expect him to follow Chicago's top receiver in Week 1. There are already questions about White's ability following two lost seasons, so especially with the tough matchup in mind, he should be on your bench to kick off the season.
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill vs. Patriots CB Malcolm Butler and Chiefs WR Chris Conley vs. Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore
I hesitate to move the needle too much here simply because Gilmore adds a new dimension to the Patriots secondary and Hill's obscene speed could cause Bill Belichick to get creative in containing Kansas City's clear top target at wideout. I'm downgrading Hill only slightly and Conley shouldn't be on your radar for a starting spot just yet.
Other notes
• Will Ravens CB Jimmy Smith shadow Bengals WR A.J. Green? Doubtful. Consider that Green has lit Smith up for 13 receptions, 194 yards and a touchdown on 17 targets over the past three years.
• Seahawks CB Richard Sherman has not shadowed against Green Bay the past two years, so Jordy Nelson should be "safe."
Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey had success against Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins last season (23-10-94-0 line on 50 routes), but it's hard to know if Jacksonville will choose to shadow for two reasons: 1. A.J. Bouye is a very capable corner opposite Ramsey; and 2. With Will Fuller V out, the Texans don't have a clear second option for Bouye to follow around.
• There was a report floating around that indicated the Browns' Jamar Taylor will shadow the Steelers' Antonio Brown in Week 1. I spoke to two reliable sources who don't expect that to be the case, though. Assuming Taylor doesn't shadow, Jason McCourty and Briean Boddy-Calhoun would cover Brown on the perimeter, with Taylor -- the team's 2016 and projected 2017 slot corner -- handling him inside. Brown lined up in the slot 13 percent of the time last year. It should be all systems go for another big game for Brown.
• Marcus Peters did not shadow at all last season and New England moves its wide receivers around enough that none of their wideouts need to be downgraded.
Analyzing ranks with Elliott, but no Buccaneers, Dolphins
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/6/17
What a weird Week 1 of the 2017 fantasy football season this is going to be. Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is actually going to be in the lineup but everyone on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins will not be. Yep, just the way it was all planned.
The first in-season ESPN Fantasy rankings are published and there are some strange sights to be sure. Each Wednesday in this space I’ll do my best to chronicle the bigger themes. For this week, it appears Elliott will be in action against the Giants on Sunday night and that’s certainly a good thing for those investing in him. It doesn’t mean he’ll be ranked at all the following week, or until the end of October, but we’ll let the lawyers figure that out. Elliott is an excellent play this week.
As for the two Florida football teams impacted by the approaching Hurricane Irma, their game will be played in Week 11, which is when the Bucs and Dolphins were scheduled for a bye week. The big story here is there is a devastating storm on the way and many, many people will be unfortunately inconvenienced and harmed. Your fantasy team will be fine. You might be disappointed that your first-round pick, Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans, isn’t playing this week, but I’m guessing you’d have better perspective if you lived in southern Florida, or in Houston for that matter.
Due to Hurricane Irma, Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have their one and only bye week in Week 1. David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Still, as we gently refocus back to the relative insignificance of the fantasy world, it is odd that several key players will not suit up in Week 1 and this situation has elicited many reactions. While there’s never a good time for a devastating storm, one could argue that for fantasy purposes it has the least impact in Week 1, when just about everyone except Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is healthy and ready for action, and no other teams are on their bye week. Fantasy owners might need to cut that fifth running back or backup defense to replace Evans, Jay Ajayi or others for a week, but it’s really not a big deal.
Others will try to justify trading the top options on these teams -- or avoiding them in drafts this week -- because the Bucs and Dolphins will end up playing 16 consecutive weeks, which is obviously not ideal by any physical measure. Sorry, but I can’t get on board with the logic. In fact, as an Evans owner who was perhaps 2 percent thinking ahead to all my players on a pending Week 11 bye, I don’t mind it. But let’s worry about November football in November. Most of my teams do not boast reserve quarterbacks at this point because byes don’t start until October. So many things will change. This is overthinking.
While those relying on Jameis Winston, Jay Cutler (can’t imagine it’s that many people), Ajayi, the Tampa Bay running backs (again, you’re that disappointed you can’t use Jacquizz Rodgers this week?), Evans, DeSean Jackson, Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and perhaps others have to make some minor arrangements, this is why you load up on flex options. You might not have thought you’d need them in Week 1, but you might. The Winston owners can find a quarterback on free agency quite easily; Carson Palmer, Carson Wentz, Carson … um, Tyrod Taylor and even Sam Bradford are readily available and boast solid matchups this week. And then Winston returns in Week 2!
One other thing, and again, it’s not a big deal, but those investing in Buccaneers running back Doug Martin and the three-game suspension he needs to serve -- lawyers aren’t involved anymore, I believe -- won’t get to see him eligible to play until Week 5. He misses the Week 4 game against the Giants, a pretty good run defense, and can play in Week 5 against the mighty Patriots, and that game is scheduled for a Thursday night. (I always say scheduled because one never really knows for sure.) Martin’s ownership figures might drop a bit because fantasy owners are famously impatient, but I’d say Martin is a better option now. He debuts on a Thursday without having to play four days earlier. He might be the lone fresh player out there. And yeah, we’ll worry about Week 11 in mid-November.
Week 1 quarterback ranking thoughts: No major surprises it appears, but I did rank Steelers option Ben Roethlisberger considerably worse than my colleagues. Don’t forget the woeful road numbers for this veteran, and that includes in Cleveland. Roethlisberger has 14 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions in road games the past two seasons. Last year in Cleveland -- and the Browns were awful -- he threw for 167 yards and nary a touchdown. … I don’t mind admitting I like the 49ers passing game this week at home against Carolina. Brian Hoyer is a competent quarterback. … Philip Rivers has actually performed fine at mighty Denver in recent seasons. He gets picked off, but the yards and scores are there.
Week 1 running back ranking thoughts: Remember we have separate rankings for PPR formats and non-PPR formats this season! … While I like the 49ers to score against the Panthers, I’m all-in for Carolina rookie Christian McCaffrey. While other rookies might have to prove themselves in games that count to gain playing time, as the Chiefs and Bengals notably could have time-shares, McCaffrey should get plenty of touches. … Seattle is going to be really tough to run on, so this might be the worst week to use Ty Montgomery. So what if you drafted him “to be a starter.” What does that mean? How you acquired players doesn’t matter now. Play the best ones and matchups are important. … Pretty strong rankings, from most of us, on Baltimore’s Terrance West. He was a late-round pick in most leagues but opportunity is there, even with Danny Woodhead healthy. And Woodhead might not be so healthy.
One thing on Elliott, and perhaps I am overthinking: The Giants can handle the run. Elliott ran 20 times for 51 yards in the home game against the Giants last year. He was better in the rematch. Of course all Elliott owners will activate him but don’t assume there’s extra motivation because of the looming suspension or the ridiculous way it has been handled will mean a notably monster game. I don’t view him as a particularly good DFS play. Also, don’t use backup Darren McFadden this week, but definitely keep him owned. He was going to be my No. 10 running back until word came Elliott would play.
Week 1 wide receiver ranking thoughts: It generally takes a few weeks for there to be surprise rankings at this position, but definitely check out the work of colleague Mike Clay as he reveals the best and worst wide receiver matchups. This is must-reading but doesn’t mean Kelvin Benjamin is a WR1 or Dez Bryant should be forgotten. But Bryant did miss my top 20. Apparently nobody else is concerned. … Can’t speak for others, but I ranked new Ram Sammy Watkins well this week because he’s not hurt yet. It might seem to make little sense based on my season ranks, but that’s the point. This is one week and it’s a good matchup. … Same deal with Keenan Allen. He’s healthy today and by the way, has played twice in the thin air of Denver and against that defense and has three touchdowns.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/6/17
What a weird Week 1 of the 2017 fantasy football season this is going to be. Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is actually going to be in the lineup but everyone on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins will not be. Yep, just the way it was all planned.
The first in-season ESPN Fantasy rankings are published and there are some strange sights to be sure. Each Wednesday in this space I’ll do my best to chronicle the bigger themes. For this week, it appears Elliott will be in action against the Giants on Sunday night and that’s certainly a good thing for those investing in him. It doesn’t mean he’ll be ranked at all the following week, or until the end of October, but we’ll let the lawyers figure that out. Elliott is an excellent play this week.
As for the two Florida football teams impacted by the approaching Hurricane Irma, their game will be played in Week 11, which is when the Bucs and Dolphins were scheduled for a bye week. The big story here is there is a devastating storm on the way and many, many people will be unfortunately inconvenienced and harmed. Your fantasy team will be fine. You might be disappointed that your first-round pick, Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans, isn’t playing this week, but I’m guessing you’d have better perspective if you lived in southern Florida, or in Houston for that matter.
Due to Hurricane Irma, Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have their one and only bye week in Week 1. David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Still, as we gently refocus back to the relative insignificance of the fantasy world, it is odd that several key players will not suit up in Week 1 and this situation has elicited many reactions. While there’s never a good time for a devastating storm, one could argue that for fantasy purposes it has the least impact in Week 1, when just about everyone except Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is healthy and ready for action, and no other teams are on their bye week. Fantasy owners might need to cut that fifth running back or backup defense to replace Evans, Jay Ajayi or others for a week, but it’s really not a big deal.
Others will try to justify trading the top options on these teams -- or avoiding them in drafts this week -- because the Bucs and Dolphins will end up playing 16 consecutive weeks, which is obviously not ideal by any physical measure. Sorry, but I can’t get on board with the logic. In fact, as an Evans owner who was perhaps 2 percent thinking ahead to all my players on a pending Week 11 bye, I don’t mind it. But let’s worry about November football in November. Most of my teams do not boast reserve quarterbacks at this point because byes don’t start until October. So many things will change. This is overthinking.
While those relying on Jameis Winston, Jay Cutler (can’t imagine it’s that many people), Ajayi, the Tampa Bay running backs (again, you’re that disappointed you can’t use Jacquizz Rodgers this week?), Evans, DeSean Jackson, Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and perhaps others have to make some minor arrangements, this is why you load up on flex options. You might not have thought you’d need them in Week 1, but you might. The Winston owners can find a quarterback on free agency quite easily; Carson Palmer, Carson Wentz, Carson … um, Tyrod Taylor and even Sam Bradford are readily available and boast solid matchups this week. And then Winston returns in Week 2!
One other thing, and again, it’s not a big deal, but those investing in Buccaneers running back Doug Martin and the three-game suspension he needs to serve -- lawyers aren’t involved anymore, I believe -- won’t get to see him eligible to play until Week 5. He misses the Week 4 game against the Giants, a pretty good run defense, and can play in Week 5 against the mighty Patriots, and that game is scheduled for a Thursday night. (I always say scheduled because one never really knows for sure.) Martin’s ownership figures might drop a bit because fantasy owners are famously impatient, but I’d say Martin is a better option now. He debuts on a Thursday without having to play four days earlier. He might be the lone fresh player out there. And yeah, we’ll worry about Week 11 in mid-November.
Week 1 quarterback ranking thoughts: No major surprises it appears, but I did rank Steelers option Ben Roethlisberger considerably worse than my colleagues. Don’t forget the woeful road numbers for this veteran, and that includes in Cleveland. Roethlisberger has 14 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions in road games the past two seasons. Last year in Cleveland -- and the Browns were awful -- he threw for 167 yards and nary a touchdown. … I don’t mind admitting I like the 49ers passing game this week at home against Carolina. Brian Hoyer is a competent quarterback. … Philip Rivers has actually performed fine at mighty Denver in recent seasons. He gets picked off, but the yards and scores are there.
Week 1 running back ranking thoughts: Remember we have separate rankings for PPR formats and non-PPR formats this season! … While I like the 49ers to score against the Panthers, I’m all-in for Carolina rookie Christian McCaffrey. While other rookies might have to prove themselves in games that count to gain playing time, as the Chiefs and Bengals notably could have time-shares, McCaffrey should get plenty of touches. … Seattle is going to be really tough to run on, so this might be the worst week to use Ty Montgomery. So what if you drafted him “to be a starter.” What does that mean? How you acquired players doesn’t matter now. Play the best ones and matchups are important. … Pretty strong rankings, from most of us, on Baltimore’s Terrance West. He was a late-round pick in most leagues but opportunity is there, even with Danny Woodhead healthy. And Woodhead might not be so healthy.
One thing on Elliott, and perhaps I am overthinking: The Giants can handle the run. Elliott ran 20 times for 51 yards in the home game against the Giants last year. He was better in the rematch. Of course all Elliott owners will activate him but don’t assume there’s extra motivation because of the looming suspension or the ridiculous way it has been handled will mean a notably monster game. I don’t view him as a particularly good DFS play. Also, don’t use backup Darren McFadden this week, but definitely keep him owned. He was going to be my No. 10 running back until word came Elliott would play.
Week 1 wide receiver ranking thoughts: It generally takes a few weeks for there to be surprise rankings at this position, but definitely check out the work of colleague Mike Clay as he reveals the best and worst wide receiver matchups. This is must-reading but doesn’t mean Kelvin Benjamin is a WR1 or Dez Bryant should be forgotten. But Bryant did miss my top 20. Apparently nobody else is concerned. … Can’t speak for others, but I ranked new Ram Sammy Watkins well this week because he’s not hurt yet. It might seem to make little sense based on my season ranks, but that’s the point. This is one week and it’s a good matchup. … Same deal with Keenan Allen. He’s healthy today and by the way, has played twice in the thin air of Denver and against that defense and has three touchdowns.
Week 1 fantasy football flex rankings: Matchups matter
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
Welcome to the 2017 fantasy football season and the return of the top-100 (plus) flex rankings! I’m Eric, and I’ll be your host in this forum yet again, as we combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one tidy, reasonable package to aid those of you with some tough flex decisions -- and even easy ones.
Scoring is point-per-reception, and day of publication is every Thursday (a day earlier Thanksgiving week), so make sure you pay attention to the news every Friday, because injury updates could absolutely adjust things. And, hey, have fun! This is a game. Enjoy it. And no matter how the players are ranked below, trust your gut and make your own decisions.
1. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: I flipped the order for the top guys in season rankings, but this isn’t about the season. It’s about Sunday. Bell gets the slight nod.
2. David Johnson, RB, Cardinals: I always get a kick out of people whining that Bell and Johnson shouldn’t be in these rankings since they’re the best players, as if it’s for a two-team league. OK, so where should we start? At the twentieth best player? Gotta start somewhere, so we include them all.
3. LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills: When a coach tells the world he might never take his starter out because he doesn’t like the other options, we listen. And McCoy finished last season as the No. 7 scorer among flex-eligible players, despite missing two games. (I’m counting Week 17.)
4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys: Here today, gone tomorrow, and for the next six games. Great job. But he should be good this Sunday.
5. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: We know his quarterback doesn’t produce big numbers on the road, but Brown does quite well. No worries here.
6. Todd Gurley, RB, Rams: I’ve been at ESPN a long time, and I feel like I’ve been recommending running backs against the Colts for all of it.
7. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants: We should point out it’s possible that he’s not healthy enough to play, but I’m guessing he’ll play anyway.
8. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons: Super Bowl jinx! And I ranked him eighth anyway. No jinx.
9. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
10. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
11. Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers: Totaled 155 yards in last season’s meeting at Denver, so no, to answer your question, I’m actually not worried about the matchup.
12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans
13. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers: Tops among the rookies for this week, and probably a lot more. And by the way, that might hold even in non-PPR formats. I think he gets plenty of touches and gets into the end zone too.
14. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
15. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: Seattle at Green Bay should be fun, but in terms of rankings, it should be more fun for Baldwin than Nelson. In fact, Nelson might be ranked generously.
16. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Led the league in catches last year. Doesn’t sound like he’s done to me.
17. Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots: No reason to worry about him getting enough targets, especially after the Julian Edelman injury.
18. Jordan Howard, RB, Bears: Not a pass catcher, but a really good player.
19. Lamar Miller, RB, Texans
20. Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders: Both Raiders options rank well, but yeah, and perhaps it’s to prove a point. It’s OK to like Crabtree more. He did outscore the other guy last year and the year prior. And as matchups go for this game, Crabtree probably has it easier as well.
21. Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders: But he’s really good too.
22. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints: One of the tougher matchups for him this season, if not the toughest, so don’t be upset with only six or seven fantasy points.
23. Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR, Redskins
24. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
25. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers: I could write this about 30 more times the rest of this blog entry, but “he is healthy today” and that’s all that matters. We’ll deal with future weeks when they arrive!
26. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars: Some would like to presume he’ll struggle because quarterback Blake Bortles is bad, but I’m not there yet.
27. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
28. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns
29. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans: Yes, I do think Tom Savage is capable of making him relevant again. Very relevant.
30. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets: Might not be rushing for 100 yards per game, but with the receptions he’s going to be valuable.
31. Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings: He’s playing the Saints. At home. Batter up!
32. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers
33. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: Doesn’t seem trusted by many, so this will be interesting.
34. Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs: He has achieved nothing but is already so trusted. And it will be interesting.
35. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
36. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos: Thomas is dealing with a groin injury, but even if he was healthy, these two are pretty even. San Diego will ... excuse me, the L.A. Chargers have excellent cornerbacks.
37. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers
38. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
39. Sammy Watkins, WR, Rams: Over/under on games played at 12.5? That seem fair? He’s healthy today.
40. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: You don’t want to trust Scott Tolzien, but Hilton won’t get charged with his interceptions. Don’t drop Hilton too far in your rankings waiting for Andrew Luck to return.
41. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Raiders
42. Pierre Garcon, WR, 49ers: I actually do believe Brian Hoyer can be a competent quarterback, and Garcon has clearly shown he can be good.
43. Danny Woodhead, RB, Ravens
44. Theo Riddick, RB, Lions
45. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions: Pick a Lion, any Lion. I generally pick the one who catches the passes.
46. Brandon Marshall, WR, Giants
47. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles: Josh Norman knows Alshon. And Alshon knows Josh. Don’t expect Jeffery to have a big game.
48. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins knows Dez. And Dez ... you get it. Tough matchup again. Bryant caught two passes against the Giants last season. Two. On 14 targets.
49. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
50. Golden Tate, WR, Lions
51. Davante Adams, WR, Packers
52. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins: I think the smart move is to hope he has a big September and then trade him. You’re not likely getting 16 games here.
53. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
54. Terrance West, RB, Ravens: Seems a bit underrated to me.
55. Mike Gillislee, RB, Patriots: The problem is nobody has a clue what New England is doing with their running backs.
56. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals: I feel like this ranking should either be 30 spots better or 30 spots worse. Mixon really should be their guy right now.
57. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs: The question is whether he’ll get enough targets, because the touchdown percentage will be mighty hard to repeat.
58. Jamison Crowder, WR, Redskins
59. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings: Again, it’s a home game with the Saints. Even Sam Bradford can’t help but do something with that matchup.
60. Ty Montgomery, RB, Packers
61. Rob Kelley, RB, Redskins
62. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers
63. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Ravens
64. Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars: Bortles can’t be this bad again, right? And by the way, Bortles was a top-10 fantasy QB the past two years. He just couldn’t find Robinson downfield last year. Maybe it changes.
65. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
66. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks
67. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Eagles: Seems obvious his touches could be divided in half from last year, and that will take the touchdowns down as well.
68. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
69. Adrian Peterson, RB, Saints: Of course he opens in Minnesota. Of course! Just don’t see how this can be a great statistical game, but he’s shocked us before.
70. Frank Gore, RB, Colts
71. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
72. Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers: Still dealing with a groin injury, and the matchup isn’t so easy.
73. Eric Decker, WR, Titans
74. Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons: Now begins the group of pass-catching running backs. Coleman was mostly worth flex status when he played last season.
75. Duke Johnson Jr., RB, Browns
76. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles
77. Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles: Everyone’s waiting for the breakout season, but he’s already broken out.
78. Delanie Walker, TE, Titans
79. Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens: Rarely valued properly, but he actually topped 1,000 receiving yards last year.
80. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Saints: This doesn’t figure to be the matchup to judge him on, but good times are ahead.
81. Paul Perkins, RB, Giants: He’s their top guy, but few seem to believe he’s got a good shot at being a top-20 RB anytime soon.
82. Eddie Lacy, RB, Seahawks: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. As with the Giants, the offensive line is a problem.
83. Matt Forte, RB, Jets: Yes, he’s still playing. And he might split the touches with Powell, making him a bit undervalued.
84. Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots
85. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots: Amendola should have more catches than Hogan, but Hogan should have a better shot at big yards and scores. We think.
86. Rex Burkhead, RB, Patriots: I can’t really make the claim that Burkhead will be this team’s top running back yet, but I have a feeling he’ll get chances and would make sure he’s rostered before the game in a deep league.
87. James White, RB, Patriots
88. John Brown, WR, Cardinals
89. Zay Jones, WR, Bills: Decent chance both Bills receivers that most people know -- even this rookie -- are undervalued this week.
90. Kenny Britt, WR, Browns
91. Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals: Don’t trust the health. Even if he’s healthy heading into the game.
92. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: Potential DFS bargain here if the Bengals really don’t trust Mixon yet.
93. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals
94. Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans: Definite value here. It’s Week 1. No byes. No injuries. This top-100 won’t be as deep any other week.
95. Jordan Matthews, WR, Bills
96. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
97. Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks
98. C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks
99. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts
100. Corey Coleman, WR, Browns
Also: Marvin Jones, WR, Lions; Torrey Smith, WR, Eagles; Martellus Bennett, TE, Packers; Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys; Latavius Murray, RB, Vikings; Wendell Smallwood, RB, Eagles; Jamaal Charles, RB, Broncos; Corey Davis, WR, Titans; Kevin White, WR, Bears; D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texans; Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys; Kendall Wright, WR, Bears; Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins; Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants; Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks; Shane Vereen, RB, Giants; Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
Welcome to the 2017 fantasy football season and the return of the top-100 (plus) flex rankings! I’m Eric, and I’ll be your host in this forum yet again, as we combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one tidy, reasonable package to aid those of you with some tough flex decisions -- and even easy ones.
Scoring is point-per-reception, and day of publication is every Thursday (a day earlier Thanksgiving week), so make sure you pay attention to the news every Friday, because injury updates could absolutely adjust things. And, hey, have fun! This is a game. Enjoy it. And no matter how the players are ranked below, trust your gut and make your own decisions.
1. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: I flipped the order for the top guys in season rankings, but this isn’t about the season. It’s about Sunday. Bell gets the slight nod.
2. David Johnson, RB, Cardinals: I always get a kick out of people whining that Bell and Johnson shouldn’t be in these rankings since they’re the best players, as if it’s for a two-team league. OK, so where should we start? At the twentieth best player? Gotta start somewhere, so we include them all.
3. LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills: When a coach tells the world he might never take his starter out because he doesn’t like the other options, we listen. And McCoy finished last season as the No. 7 scorer among flex-eligible players, despite missing two games. (I’m counting Week 17.)
4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys: Here today, gone tomorrow, and for the next six games. Great job. But he should be good this Sunday.
5. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: We know his quarterback doesn’t produce big numbers on the road, but Brown does quite well. No worries here.
6. Todd Gurley, RB, Rams: I’ve been at ESPN a long time, and I feel like I’ve been recommending running backs against the Colts for all of it.
7. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants: We should point out it’s possible that he’s not healthy enough to play, but I’m guessing he’ll play anyway.
8. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons: Super Bowl jinx! And I ranked him eighth anyway. No jinx.
9. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
10. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
11. Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers: Totaled 155 yards in last season’s meeting at Denver, so no, to answer your question, I’m actually not worried about the matchup.
12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans
13. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers: Tops among the rookies for this week, and probably a lot more. And by the way, that might hold even in non-PPR formats. I think he gets plenty of touches and gets into the end zone too.
14. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
15. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: Seattle at Green Bay should be fun, but in terms of rankings, it should be more fun for Baldwin than Nelson. In fact, Nelson might be ranked generously.
16. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Led the league in catches last year. Doesn’t sound like he’s done to me.
17. Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots: No reason to worry about him getting enough targets, especially after the Julian Edelman injury.
18. Jordan Howard, RB, Bears: Not a pass catcher, but a really good player.
19. Lamar Miller, RB, Texans
20. Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders: Both Raiders options rank well, but yeah, and perhaps it’s to prove a point. It’s OK to like Crabtree more. He did outscore the other guy last year and the year prior. And as matchups go for this game, Crabtree probably has it easier as well.
21. Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders: But he’s really good too.
22. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints: One of the tougher matchups for him this season, if not the toughest, so don’t be upset with only six or seven fantasy points.
23. Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR, Redskins
24. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
25. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers: I could write this about 30 more times the rest of this blog entry, but “he is healthy today” and that’s all that matters. We’ll deal with future weeks when they arrive!
26. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars: Some would like to presume he’ll struggle because quarterback Blake Bortles is bad, but I’m not there yet.
27. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
28. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns
29. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans: Yes, I do think Tom Savage is capable of making him relevant again. Very relevant.
30. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets: Might not be rushing for 100 yards per game, but with the receptions he’s going to be valuable.
31. Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings: He’s playing the Saints. At home. Batter up!
32. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers
33. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: Doesn’t seem trusted by many, so this will be interesting.
34. Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs: He has achieved nothing but is already so trusted. And it will be interesting.
35. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
36. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos: Thomas is dealing with a groin injury, but even if he was healthy, these two are pretty even. San Diego will ... excuse me, the L.A. Chargers have excellent cornerbacks.
37. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers
38. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
39. Sammy Watkins, WR, Rams: Over/under on games played at 12.5? That seem fair? He’s healthy today.
40. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: You don’t want to trust Scott Tolzien, but Hilton won’t get charged with his interceptions. Don’t drop Hilton too far in your rankings waiting for Andrew Luck to return.
41. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Raiders
42. Pierre Garcon, WR, 49ers: I actually do believe Brian Hoyer can be a competent quarterback, and Garcon has clearly shown he can be good.
43. Danny Woodhead, RB, Ravens
44. Theo Riddick, RB, Lions
45. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions: Pick a Lion, any Lion. I generally pick the one who catches the passes.
46. Brandon Marshall, WR, Giants
47. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles: Josh Norman knows Alshon. And Alshon knows Josh. Don’t expect Jeffery to have a big game.
48. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins knows Dez. And Dez ... you get it. Tough matchup again. Bryant caught two passes against the Giants last season. Two. On 14 targets.
49. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
50. Golden Tate, WR, Lions
51. Davante Adams, WR, Packers
52. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins: I think the smart move is to hope he has a big September and then trade him. You’re not likely getting 16 games here.
53. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
54. Terrance West, RB, Ravens: Seems a bit underrated to me.
55. Mike Gillislee, RB, Patriots: The problem is nobody has a clue what New England is doing with their running backs.
56. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals: I feel like this ranking should either be 30 spots better or 30 spots worse. Mixon really should be their guy right now.
57. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs: The question is whether he’ll get enough targets, because the touchdown percentage will be mighty hard to repeat.
58. Jamison Crowder, WR, Redskins
59. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings: Again, it’s a home game with the Saints. Even Sam Bradford can’t help but do something with that matchup.
60. Ty Montgomery, RB, Packers
61. Rob Kelley, RB, Redskins
62. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers
63. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Ravens
64. Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars: Bortles can’t be this bad again, right? And by the way, Bortles was a top-10 fantasy QB the past two years. He just couldn’t find Robinson downfield last year. Maybe it changes.
65. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
66. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks
67. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Eagles: Seems obvious his touches could be divided in half from last year, and that will take the touchdowns down as well.
68. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
69. Adrian Peterson, RB, Saints: Of course he opens in Minnesota. Of course! Just don’t see how this can be a great statistical game, but he’s shocked us before.
70. Frank Gore, RB, Colts
71. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
72. Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers: Still dealing with a groin injury, and the matchup isn’t so easy.
73. Eric Decker, WR, Titans
74. Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons: Now begins the group of pass-catching running backs. Coleman was mostly worth flex status when he played last season.
75. Duke Johnson Jr., RB, Browns
76. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles
77. Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles: Everyone’s waiting for the breakout season, but he’s already broken out.
78. Delanie Walker, TE, Titans
79. Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens: Rarely valued properly, but he actually topped 1,000 receiving yards last year.
80. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Saints: This doesn’t figure to be the matchup to judge him on, but good times are ahead.
81. Paul Perkins, RB, Giants: He’s their top guy, but few seem to believe he’s got a good shot at being a top-20 RB anytime soon.
82. Eddie Lacy, RB, Seahawks: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. As with the Giants, the offensive line is a problem.
83. Matt Forte, RB, Jets: Yes, he’s still playing. And he might split the touches with Powell, making him a bit undervalued.
84. Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots
85. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots: Amendola should have more catches than Hogan, but Hogan should have a better shot at big yards and scores. We think.
86. Rex Burkhead, RB, Patriots: I can’t really make the claim that Burkhead will be this team’s top running back yet, but I have a feeling he’ll get chances and would make sure he’s rostered before the game in a deep league.
87. James White, RB, Patriots
88. John Brown, WR, Cardinals
89. Zay Jones, WR, Bills: Decent chance both Bills receivers that most people know -- even this rookie -- are undervalued this week.
90. Kenny Britt, WR, Browns
91. Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals: Don’t trust the health. Even if he’s healthy heading into the game.
92. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: Potential DFS bargain here if the Bengals really don’t trust Mixon yet.
93. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals
94. Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans: Definite value here. It’s Week 1. No byes. No injuries. This top-100 won’t be as deep any other week.
95. Jordan Matthews, WR, Bills
96. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
97. Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks
98. C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks
99. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts
100. Corey Coleman, WR, Browns
Also: Marvin Jones, WR, Lions; Torrey Smith, WR, Eagles; Martellus Bennett, TE, Packers; Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys; Latavius Murray, RB, Vikings; Wendell Smallwood, RB, Eagles; Jamaal Charles, RB, Broncos; Corey Davis, WR, Titans; Kevin White, WR, Bears; D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texans; Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys; Kendall Wright, WR, Bears; Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins; Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants; Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks; Shane Vereen, RB, Giants; Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
What to watch: The other rookie running backs
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
Eight running backs were chosen in the first three rounds of the most recent NFL draft, and one of them debuted Thursday night with considerably more fanfare than when he was originally drafted. The Kansas City Chiefs rocked the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in the first game of the 2017 regular season, and Kareem Hunt, selected No. 86 overall, looked the part of fantastic fantasy asset with his 246 total yards and three touchdowns, and he was able to do that because starter Spencer Ware wrecked his knee and presented the opportunity.
A year ago, there was merely one rookie running back fantasy owners relied on in Week 1. Dallas Cowboys star Ezekiel Elliott definitely proved to be worth it, but the only other rookie running back to even make our rankings that opening week was Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans. Few owned eventual breakouts Jordan Howard or Rob Kelley. This year is obviously different, and that’s one of the bigger fantasy themes of the weekend, as we pay extra-close attention to the first-year running backs who have yet to succeed or fail -- so most of us can, obviously, overreact.
In each case, there’s enough to believe the rookies we did rank at running back could be awesome and great weekly fantasy options, but it’s also easy to see how things could go awry. Of course, after the historic performance by Hunt, now everyone will expect every rookie to go nuts. I’ll go one by one, if you don’t mind.
Carolina opens at San Francisco, and we all remember how bad the 49ers were, so we assume Christian McCaffrey totals 100-plus yards with many catches and gets into the end zone. But Jonathan Stewart is, by the way, still there, and he’s competent, and for today, healthy. Oh, and the quarterback likes to call his own number at the goal line. I’m all in on McCaffrey, in PPR and non-PPR, and can see how next week we view this guy as a top-five untouchable option, but also how this ends up in more of a timeshare than anyone today wants to believe.
Jacksonville opens at Houston against a defense we at ESPN Fantasy have collectively decided is the prime option to own this week. J.J. Watt is great, both on and off the field, by the way. Anyway, Leonard Fournette should have volume, and others should help him catch passes on third downs, but then again, the quarterback situation is such a problem for the Jaguars and likely to change at some point -- perhaps even this week. That could certainly affect how defenses plan to deal with Fournette.
The Vikings host the Saints, and that should mean big things for Dalvin Cook, who we all call an RB2 option, even though it’s just about the most ideal matchup and few believe Latavius Murray will be sharing snaps. So why didn’t we rank Cook better? I’m asking myself that very question. I certainly want to watch how this plays out, though.
The Bengals-Ravens games tend to be bruising affairs, and Cincinnati really hasn’t tipped its hand about the running back snaps. Incumbents Jeremy Hill (ankle) and Giovani Bernard (knee) can’t be 100 percent healthy, so it seems odd that Joe Mixon isn’t expected to handle a greater workload. Or perhaps the Bengals just aren’t revealing anything, and the controversial rookie will get all of them. How Belichickian! I think it’s a risk to activate Mixon in fantasy this week, but he has to be owned in all leagues in case he’s "the guy." I’m not going to pretend to know how this one turns out.
After that, there are three others I haven’t discussed, and again, their roles are problematic. While the Vikings have a touted rookie runner, so do the Saints, though Alvin Kamara might not have much of a role initially. Plus, everyone will be watching Adrian Peterson's return to where he used to roam, and we should watch closely to see how touches are divided between he and Mark Ingram. In Houston, Lamar Miller is relatively safe until he isn’t, so D’Onta Foreman isn’t expected to play much initially, and then there is James Conner in Pittsburgh. He might never see the ball while Le’Veon Bell is healthy, but Cowboy Darren McFadden aside, is there a better handcuff option?
And that pretty much sums up the key rookie running back situations, though it’s worth pointing out the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 rookie rushers last season after Elliott were not chosen in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Howard was a fifth-rounder in Chicago. Kelley didn’t get drafted by Washington or any team. Denver took Devontae Booker in Round 4. Draft status really doesn’t matter, and no other rookies rushed for 500 yards. That should change this season with several or more of the fellows listed above, and it all starts in Week 1.
What if Chris Carson (Seahawks), De'Angelo Henderson (Broncos), Matt Breida (49ers), Tarik Cohen (Bears), Justin Davis (Rams) or Marlon Mack (Colts) end up as this year’s surprises? Could happen!
Three other things I’m watching this weekend
1. Good wide receivers with questionable quarterbacks: Certainly quite a few T.Y. Hilton owners are so worried about the absence of injured Andrew Luck that they’re thinking about sitting him because Scott Tolzien will be slingin’ the pigskin. My take is a top receiver will still get his numbers, but the brutal DeAndre Hopkins situation last season adjusted conventional thinking on that, and it was similar with Allen Robinson in Jacksonville. It used to be rare. So let’s watch Hopkins with Tom Savage and whether Blake Bortles steps up with his job on the line too. I think Rams sophomore Jared Goff has to be better now that he’s got Sammy Watkins to throw to. And will any Jets options matter? Good question!
2. Road woes: Many people seem to be expecting the Steelers to score at will in Cleveland, but I just can’t gloss over the brutal road statistics for Ben Roethlisberger -- not just last year, but for three years running. Last year at Cleveland, he threw for a mere 167 passing yards with no scores. In addition, Drew Brees certainly hasn’t been close to as productive away from New Orleans. This game is in Minnesota, the first of a pair of Monday Night Football games with Chargers-Broncos to follow. Everyone will be eagerly watching as Peterson returns to friendly Viking land, but the Brees performance and whether he can turn veteran Ted Ginn Jr. into a legit replacement for Brandin Cooks is interesting as well.
3. Stay safe, Florida: Real life is going to eclipse fantasy every time, so hopefully this weekend’s storm weakens and Hurricane Irma fails to leave utter devastation in its wake. It’s kind of meaningless that a pro football game had to be postponed until November, and your fantasy team will be fine. Regardless, fantasy owners who weren’t prepared for their Buccaneers and Dolphins to be sitting out this weekend are going to do some unwise things with their rosters, cutting players they shouldn’t to fill a lineup.
We know fantasy owners overreact, but I recommend smart fantasy owners take a look at free agency in their leagues prior to Sunday, when rosters lock, to see if there are bargains out there that shouldn’t be, like rookie running backs or strong handcuffs or even, for those who believe, Luck. Always look to strengthen your bench and don’t worry about planning for those Week 11 byes yet, whether you drafted a few days ago or four weeks ago. Dump that second defense for Carson. One of those assets could be among the most added Week 2 options, and it’s sure not the defense.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
Eight running backs were chosen in the first three rounds of the most recent NFL draft, and one of them debuted Thursday night with considerably more fanfare than when he was originally drafted. The Kansas City Chiefs rocked the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in the first game of the 2017 regular season, and Kareem Hunt, selected No. 86 overall, looked the part of fantastic fantasy asset with his 246 total yards and three touchdowns, and he was able to do that because starter Spencer Ware wrecked his knee and presented the opportunity.
A year ago, there was merely one rookie running back fantasy owners relied on in Week 1. Dallas Cowboys star Ezekiel Elliott definitely proved to be worth it, but the only other rookie running back to even make our rankings that opening week was Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans. Few owned eventual breakouts Jordan Howard or Rob Kelley. This year is obviously different, and that’s one of the bigger fantasy themes of the weekend, as we pay extra-close attention to the first-year running backs who have yet to succeed or fail -- so most of us can, obviously, overreact.
In each case, there’s enough to believe the rookies we did rank at running back could be awesome and great weekly fantasy options, but it’s also easy to see how things could go awry. Of course, after the historic performance by Hunt, now everyone will expect every rookie to go nuts. I’ll go one by one, if you don’t mind.
Carolina opens at San Francisco, and we all remember how bad the 49ers were, so we assume Christian McCaffrey totals 100-plus yards with many catches and gets into the end zone. But Jonathan Stewart is, by the way, still there, and he’s competent, and for today, healthy. Oh, and the quarterback likes to call his own number at the goal line. I’m all in on McCaffrey, in PPR and non-PPR, and can see how next week we view this guy as a top-five untouchable option, but also how this ends up in more of a timeshare than anyone today wants to believe.
Jacksonville opens at Houston against a defense we at ESPN Fantasy have collectively decided is the prime option to own this week. J.J. Watt is great, both on and off the field, by the way. Anyway, Leonard Fournette should have volume, and others should help him catch passes on third downs, but then again, the quarterback situation is such a problem for the Jaguars and likely to change at some point -- perhaps even this week. That could certainly affect how defenses plan to deal with Fournette.
The Vikings host the Saints, and that should mean big things for Dalvin Cook, who we all call an RB2 option, even though it’s just about the most ideal matchup and few believe Latavius Murray will be sharing snaps. So why didn’t we rank Cook better? I’m asking myself that very question. I certainly want to watch how this plays out, though.
The Bengals-Ravens games tend to be bruising affairs, and Cincinnati really hasn’t tipped its hand about the running back snaps. Incumbents Jeremy Hill (ankle) and Giovani Bernard (knee) can’t be 100 percent healthy, so it seems odd that Joe Mixon isn’t expected to handle a greater workload. Or perhaps the Bengals just aren’t revealing anything, and the controversial rookie will get all of them. How Belichickian! I think it’s a risk to activate Mixon in fantasy this week, but he has to be owned in all leagues in case he’s "the guy." I’m not going to pretend to know how this one turns out.
After that, there are three others I haven’t discussed, and again, their roles are problematic. While the Vikings have a touted rookie runner, so do the Saints, though Alvin Kamara might not have much of a role initially. Plus, everyone will be watching Adrian Peterson's return to where he used to roam, and we should watch closely to see how touches are divided between he and Mark Ingram. In Houston, Lamar Miller is relatively safe until he isn’t, so D’Onta Foreman isn’t expected to play much initially, and then there is James Conner in Pittsburgh. He might never see the ball while Le’Veon Bell is healthy, but Cowboy Darren McFadden aside, is there a better handcuff option?
And that pretty much sums up the key rookie running back situations, though it’s worth pointing out the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 rookie rushers last season after Elliott were not chosen in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Howard was a fifth-rounder in Chicago. Kelley didn’t get drafted by Washington or any team. Denver took Devontae Booker in Round 4. Draft status really doesn’t matter, and no other rookies rushed for 500 yards. That should change this season with several or more of the fellows listed above, and it all starts in Week 1.
What if Chris Carson (Seahawks), De'Angelo Henderson (Broncos), Matt Breida (49ers), Tarik Cohen (Bears), Justin Davis (Rams) or Marlon Mack (Colts) end up as this year’s surprises? Could happen!
Three other things I’m watching this weekend
1. Good wide receivers with questionable quarterbacks: Certainly quite a few T.Y. Hilton owners are so worried about the absence of injured Andrew Luck that they’re thinking about sitting him because Scott Tolzien will be slingin’ the pigskin. My take is a top receiver will still get his numbers, but the brutal DeAndre Hopkins situation last season adjusted conventional thinking on that, and it was similar with Allen Robinson in Jacksonville. It used to be rare. So let’s watch Hopkins with Tom Savage and whether Blake Bortles steps up with his job on the line too. I think Rams sophomore Jared Goff has to be better now that he’s got Sammy Watkins to throw to. And will any Jets options matter? Good question!
2. Road woes: Many people seem to be expecting the Steelers to score at will in Cleveland, but I just can’t gloss over the brutal road statistics for Ben Roethlisberger -- not just last year, but for three years running. Last year at Cleveland, he threw for a mere 167 passing yards with no scores. In addition, Drew Brees certainly hasn’t been close to as productive away from New Orleans. This game is in Minnesota, the first of a pair of Monday Night Football games with Chargers-Broncos to follow. Everyone will be eagerly watching as Peterson returns to friendly Viking land, but the Brees performance and whether he can turn veteran Ted Ginn Jr. into a legit replacement for Brandin Cooks is interesting as well.
3. Stay safe, Florida: Real life is going to eclipse fantasy every time, so hopefully this weekend’s storm weakens and Hurricane Irma fails to leave utter devastation in its wake. It’s kind of meaningless that a pro football game had to be postponed until November, and your fantasy team will be fine. Regardless, fantasy owners who weren’t prepared for their Buccaneers and Dolphins to be sitting out this weekend are going to do some unwise things with their rosters, cutting players they shouldn’t to fill a lineup.
We know fantasy owners overreact, but I recommend smart fantasy owners take a look at free agency in their leagues prior to Sunday, when rosters lock, to see if there are bargains out there that shouldn’t be, like rookie running backs or strong handcuffs or even, for those who believe, Luck. Always look to strengthen your bench and don’t worry about planning for those Week 11 byes yet, whether you drafted a few days ago or four weeks ago. Dump that second defense for Carson. One of those assets could be among the most added Week 2 options, and it’s sure not the defense.
Which veteran RBs could join 1,000-yard club?
Eric Karabell
9/12/17
Rushing for 1,000 yards in an NFL season might seem like no big deal -- long-time veterans Frank Gore and LeGarrette Blount were among those to achieve the mark last season -- but it’s recently become tough for veteran players to join the club for the first time. Of the 12 running backs who crossed the 1,000-yard threshold last season, seven had done it previously (including Gore and Blount). Two more (Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard) passed the mark as rookies in 2016 and two others (David Johnson, Jay Ajayi) were in Year 2 in 2016. That left Saints veteran Mark Ingram as the only longtime vet to achieve the mark for the first time -- the 2011 first-round pick finally broke through in his sixth season.
We saw the same trend in previous seasons. In 2015, sixth-year RB Chris Ivory, then of the New York Jets, managed to stay healthy long enough to rush for 1,070 yards, good for fifth in the NFL. In 2014, Justin Forsett was the surprise veteran to break through for the first time (at age 29), and Lamar Miller also accomplished the feat that year, in his third season.
This history got me wondering whether there was any room for current veteran running backs -- third season or beyond -- to really emerge in 2017.
I’m looking squarely at Baltimore’s Terrance West as the rare player to have been in the league for more than two years but still waiting for something -- opportunity, health, luck, perhaps even the development of his skills -- to turn him into a 1,000-yard rusher. West was a third-round pick in the 2014 draft by the Browns out of Towson, and expectations weren’t initially great. He wasn’t special in his one year in Cleveland, nor did he distinguish himself the next season in Tennessee. But now, in his second year as a Raven, things seem to be aligning nicely for West.
After all, pass-catching star Danny Woodhead left Sunday’s game early after re-aggravating a hamstring injury and let’s presume there will be some missed time on that one. Kenneth Dixon isn’t playing this season at all. Baltimore’s quarterback, Joe Flacco, is dealing with a painful back injury and comes off a season in which he registered career-highs -- and by a lot -- in completions, attempts and yards for a team that missed the playoffs. The Ravens don’t want a repeat of that theme. They want to run the football, control clock and rely on their defense, which pitched a shutout in Cincinnati Sunday.
Enter West, who got off to a nice start Sunday with 80 yards on 19 totes and seems like an obvious choice to threaten for 1,000 rushing yards. He’ll get the football as long as he performs capably, breaks the occasional big play, converts the short-yardage plays and avoids putting the ball on the ground. West is a sturdy 225 pounds, and while neither particularly fast nor elusive, he can break tackles with his straight-ahead, one-cut style. Next up, his old mates, the Browns!
West is also potentially useful in the passing game should Woodhead miss considerable time. He caught only 34 passes last season, but 21 of them came in the final six games, with three or more in each contest. Nobody is saying he is an emerging star or someone to target in dynasty formats --- he’s owned in all leagues -- but he could be due for a Gore- or Ivory-like season, at least statistically. Gore rushed for 1,025 yards and caught 38 passes last season, and ended up 12th in ESPN scoring among running backs. He was consistent, if not spectacular. Ivory wasn’t and isn’t a fantasy star in 2015 -- there are a lot more than mere rushing yards that go into making for a special fantasy option -- but he was valuable nonetheless and finished that year as a RB1.
Now, at age 26 and in his fourth NFL season, that could be West.
Below are some other running backs who could fit into this particular designation, as backs who are aren't rookies or second-year players, aren't necessarily clear-cut RB2s, and haven't already rushed for 1,000 yards in a season but could be poised to break through. Let’s go in order of one man’s opinion on the likelihood of hitting quadruple-digits:
Melvin Gordon, Chargers: Not exactly a similar case to West or Ingram, but it's his third season and he fell three yards shy of 1,000 in 2016. Started the season with an 18-carry, 54-yard performance against the Broncos Monday night.
Carlos Hyde, 49ers: It’s his fourth season and as with Gordon, he would have made it to 1,000 yards last year with better health. Hyde and Gordon each missed three games. Hyde averaged five yards per rush Sunday, but only got nine carries. He’ll need a lot more, and should get it.
Isaiah Crowell, Browns: I’m looking for players not necessarily in fantasy starting lineups, and Crowell is borderline after rushing for 33 yards on 17 carries Sunday. Still, it’s his fourth year and he came within 48 yards last season. He is generally regarded as a RB2, though some owners might cut him this week. If he gets dropped, scoop him up. He has 1,000 more yards in him.
Ty Montgomery, Packers: Averaged 2.8 yards per carry in Sunday’s win over Seattle and its tough defense, and I worry the Packers will want to keep Montgomery fresh and invite more touches for rookie Jamaal Williams. We shall see.
C.J. Anderson, Broncos: It’s Year 5 for him and perhaps his final shot to prove himself, since health and performance have been far from sure things. While it wasn’t the case late Monday night (Anderson rushed 20 times for 81 yards in a win over the Chargers), this seems like a committee with younger options helping Anderson. He’s had his moments in the past, so perhaps like Jay Ajayi in 2016, Anderson will have several really big games and get to 1,000 on volume.
Mike Gillislee, Patriots: This might seem outlandish but then again, Blount surpassed 1,000 yards last season -- what if Gillislee's role is precisely like Blount’s? I don’t think he'll get 299 rush attempts, but he’s also younger, quicker and more elusive than Blount.
Ameer Abdullah, Lions: One Lion in the Matthew Stafford era has reached 1,000 rushing yards, and many will be surprised to learn it was Reggie Bush, with 1,006 yards in 2013. Before that a Lion hadn't done it since Kevin Jones in 2004. I doubt Abdullah, even as the starter and prime two-down rusher, gets there, but one never knows.
Bilal Powell, Jets: He’ll need a lot more than the seven carries he got in Week 1 (he also had five catches), and this is a really bad team where yards will be hard to come by. Don’t worry, Powell's rushing yards will exceed his receiving ones. Well, they should.
Thomas Rawls, Seahawks: Rawls nearly reached 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2015, but there’s little clarity in Seattle’s backfield, and with that offensive line perhaps no Seahawk can succeed. I do think Rawls gets double-digit carries this Sunday -- he has a chance to win the job over Eddie Lacy.
Kerwynn Williams, Cardinals: Someone has to run the football with David Johnson out, though it seems like it will be a committee approach. Andre Ellington is still here as well, but it’s hard to believe with all his injury history he’ll be the guy.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Buccaneers: Someone has to run the football until Doug Martin is off his suspension, and it’s certainly plausible that Rodgers, in his seventh year, is that guy for September. Rodgers topped 100 rushing yards in two games last year.
Tevin Coleman, Falcons: Remember, the Falcons thought so much of Coleman that he was the Week 1 starter in 2015, his rookie season, ahead of Devonta Freeman. If Freeman can’t stay healthy, Coleman will get every chance to shine.
Eric Karabell
9/12/17
Rushing for 1,000 yards in an NFL season might seem like no big deal -- long-time veterans Frank Gore and LeGarrette Blount were among those to achieve the mark last season -- but it’s recently become tough for veteran players to join the club for the first time. Of the 12 running backs who crossed the 1,000-yard threshold last season, seven had done it previously (including Gore and Blount). Two more (Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard) passed the mark as rookies in 2016 and two others (David Johnson, Jay Ajayi) were in Year 2 in 2016. That left Saints veteran Mark Ingram as the only longtime vet to achieve the mark for the first time -- the 2011 first-round pick finally broke through in his sixth season.
We saw the same trend in previous seasons. In 2015, sixth-year RB Chris Ivory, then of the New York Jets, managed to stay healthy long enough to rush for 1,070 yards, good for fifth in the NFL. In 2014, Justin Forsett was the surprise veteran to break through for the first time (at age 29), and Lamar Miller also accomplished the feat that year, in his third season.
This history got me wondering whether there was any room for current veteran running backs -- third season or beyond -- to really emerge in 2017.
I’m looking squarely at Baltimore’s Terrance West as the rare player to have been in the league for more than two years but still waiting for something -- opportunity, health, luck, perhaps even the development of his skills -- to turn him into a 1,000-yard rusher. West was a third-round pick in the 2014 draft by the Browns out of Towson, and expectations weren’t initially great. He wasn’t special in his one year in Cleveland, nor did he distinguish himself the next season in Tennessee. But now, in his second year as a Raven, things seem to be aligning nicely for West.
After all, pass-catching star Danny Woodhead left Sunday’s game early after re-aggravating a hamstring injury and let’s presume there will be some missed time on that one. Kenneth Dixon isn’t playing this season at all. Baltimore’s quarterback, Joe Flacco, is dealing with a painful back injury and comes off a season in which he registered career-highs -- and by a lot -- in completions, attempts and yards for a team that missed the playoffs. The Ravens don’t want a repeat of that theme. They want to run the football, control clock and rely on their defense, which pitched a shutout in Cincinnati Sunday.
Enter West, who got off to a nice start Sunday with 80 yards on 19 totes and seems like an obvious choice to threaten for 1,000 rushing yards. He’ll get the football as long as he performs capably, breaks the occasional big play, converts the short-yardage plays and avoids putting the ball on the ground. West is a sturdy 225 pounds, and while neither particularly fast nor elusive, he can break tackles with his straight-ahead, one-cut style. Next up, his old mates, the Browns!
West is also potentially useful in the passing game should Woodhead miss considerable time. He caught only 34 passes last season, but 21 of them came in the final six games, with three or more in each contest. Nobody is saying he is an emerging star or someone to target in dynasty formats --- he’s owned in all leagues -- but he could be due for a Gore- or Ivory-like season, at least statistically. Gore rushed for 1,025 yards and caught 38 passes last season, and ended up 12th in ESPN scoring among running backs. He was consistent, if not spectacular. Ivory wasn’t and isn’t a fantasy star in 2015 -- there are a lot more than mere rushing yards that go into making for a special fantasy option -- but he was valuable nonetheless and finished that year as a RB1.
Now, at age 26 and in his fourth NFL season, that could be West.
Below are some other running backs who could fit into this particular designation, as backs who are aren't rookies or second-year players, aren't necessarily clear-cut RB2s, and haven't already rushed for 1,000 yards in a season but could be poised to break through. Let’s go in order of one man’s opinion on the likelihood of hitting quadruple-digits:
Melvin Gordon, Chargers: Not exactly a similar case to West or Ingram, but it's his third season and he fell three yards shy of 1,000 in 2016. Started the season with an 18-carry, 54-yard performance against the Broncos Monday night.
Carlos Hyde, 49ers: It’s his fourth season and as with Gordon, he would have made it to 1,000 yards last year with better health. Hyde and Gordon each missed three games. Hyde averaged five yards per rush Sunday, but only got nine carries. He’ll need a lot more, and should get it.
Isaiah Crowell, Browns: I’m looking for players not necessarily in fantasy starting lineups, and Crowell is borderline after rushing for 33 yards on 17 carries Sunday. Still, it’s his fourth year and he came within 48 yards last season. He is generally regarded as a RB2, though some owners might cut him this week. If he gets dropped, scoop him up. He has 1,000 more yards in him.
Ty Montgomery, Packers: Averaged 2.8 yards per carry in Sunday’s win over Seattle and its tough defense, and I worry the Packers will want to keep Montgomery fresh and invite more touches for rookie Jamaal Williams. We shall see.
C.J. Anderson, Broncos: It’s Year 5 for him and perhaps his final shot to prove himself, since health and performance have been far from sure things. While it wasn’t the case late Monday night (Anderson rushed 20 times for 81 yards in a win over the Chargers), this seems like a committee with younger options helping Anderson. He’s had his moments in the past, so perhaps like Jay Ajayi in 2016, Anderson will have several really big games and get to 1,000 on volume.
Mike Gillislee, Patriots: This might seem outlandish but then again, Blount surpassed 1,000 yards last season -- what if Gillislee's role is precisely like Blount’s? I don’t think he'll get 299 rush attempts, but he’s also younger, quicker and more elusive than Blount.
Ameer Abdullah, Lions: One Lion in the Matthew Stafford era has reached 1,000 rushing yards, and many will be surprised to learn it was Reggie Bush, with 1,006 yards in 2013. Before that a Lion hadn't done it since Kevin Jones in 2004. I doubt Abdullah, even as the starter and prime two-down rusher, gets there, but one never knows.
Bilal Powell, Jets: He’ll need a lot more than the seven carries he got in Week 1 (he also had five catches), and this is a really bad team where yards will be hard to come by. Don’t worry, Powell's rushing yards will exceed his receiving ones. Well, they should.
Thomas Rawls, Seahawks: Rawls nearly reached 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2015, but there’s little clarity in Seattle’s backfield, and with that offensive line perhaps no Seahawk can succeed. I do think Rawls gets double-digit carries this Sunday -- he has a chance to win the job over Eddie Lacy.
Kerwynn Williams, Cardinals: Someone has to run the football with David Johnson out, though it seems like it will be a committee approach. Andre Ellington is still here as well, but it’s hard to believe with all his injury history he’ll be the guy.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Buccaneers: Someone has to run the football until Doug Martin is off his suspension, and it’s certainly plausible that Rodgers, in his seventh year, is that guy for September. Rodgers topped 100 rushing yards in two games last year.
Tevin Coleman, Falcons: Remember, the Falcons thought so much of Coleman that he was the Week 1 starter in 2015, his rookie season, ahead of Devonta Freeman. If Freeman can’t stay healthy, Coleman will get every chance to shine.
How to respond to David Johnson, Allen Robinson injuries in fantasy
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/11/17
It was bad enough for fantasy players that Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson, the first pick in most ESPN live drafts, scored a mere 13.1 points in PPR formats at Detroit on Sunday, one of his worst statistical performances since becoming the team’s starter during the 2015 campaign. Then the news got worse. Johnson left prematurely after hurting his wrist after a third-quarter reception and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported it could cost the 25-year-old star several weeks or perhaps even half the regular season or more.
This is a big deal for the Cardinals, who enjoyed more than 2,000 total yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns from fantasy’s top performer last season. They will now likely turn to the diminutive Kerwynn Williams, who turned his six touches into a mere 12 yards Sunday, though he scored on a short touchdown run. Andre Ellington, several years ago a hot fantasy property but long forgotten, could also figure in, but sans Johnson the Cardinals will likely ask more of quarterback Carson Palmer and his receivers, which might not be possible.
After all, the Cardinals lost their game to the Lions and needed Palmer to throw 48 times, three of them intercepted. Aging Larry Fitzgerald, who led the NFL in receptions a year ago but did quite a bit of his fantasy scoring in the first five weeks, caught six of his 13 targets for 74 yards Sunday and remains a borderline top-20 wide receiver in PPR formats, but the Cardinals really rely on Johnson for a lot of this offense. Fantasy managers will make Williams a top free-agent target this week, but he still won’t come heartily recommended, even for a road tilt against a clearly terrible Colts team.
Injuries are the great equalizer in fantasy sports and we’ll await more clarity on Johnson’s situation Monday, but even if he misses half the season, you’re not dropping him and it’s not recommended to trade him for pennies on the dollar. It wasn’t too long ago that the reasonable expectation was for Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott to miss nearly half the regular season with a suspension that might never happen, and that caused him to fall merely to the end of the second round. Even if Johnson misses considerable time, he remains valuable. Don’t panic yet.
Second down: As for the aforementioned Lions, coming off an impressive 35-23 home win over a favored Cardinals team, Matthew Stafford was the lone quarterback in the 12 Sunday games entering the Giants-Cowboys tilt to score more than 20 fantasy points. Stafford tossed half his four touchdowns to rookie Kenny Golladay, who impressively leaped, dove and made quite the statement after entering play with little to no fantasy value. Golladay scored a pair of touchdowns in the first preseason game but then was quiet the rest of August, becoming forgotten in standard leagues, and wasn’t a sure thing to perform at all Sunday as he dealt with a sprained ankle. But perform he did, catching four of seven targets for 69 yards. Fantasy owners will surely flock to him as a pickup this week but should exercise a bit of caution: After all, with Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., Theo Riddick and perhaps Eric Ebron still likely to see more targets, this is likely Golladay’s fantasy ceiling, and he’s a rookie, and they rarely star at this position on a consistent basis right away.
As for Stafford, you'll miss out if you continue to underestimate him. A top-10 overall fantasy scorer each of the past two seasons, with differing options to throw to, there were 13 quarterbacks selected earlier in ESPN average live drafts and he was active in a mere 44 percent of leagues this week. However, the veteran continues to produce big numbers, and despite another seemingly difficult matchup in Week 2 at the Giants on Monday, he should be regarded as a top-10 quarterback again because the Lions can’t run the football and there’s no indication that will change anytime soon. Ameer Abdullah, healthy today but perhaps not tomorrow, ran 15 times for 30 yards. This is why Stafford made my top-10 quarterbacks for the season.
Third down: Johnson wasn’t the only top-10 option from ESPN ADP to disappoint fantasy owners. Pittsburgh Steelers star Le'Veon Bell was curiously underused in the close win at Cleveland, earning a mere 10 rushing attempts and catching only three passes, and in each case there were no games last season in which he had fewer of either mark. Perhaps Bell’s August holdout and lack of practice time necessitated the lack of touches, but it’s not like another Steelers player ran the ball often. In this case, injury doesn’t appear to be the culprit and Bell should warrant a top ranking even for a more difficult Week 2 matchup versus the Vikings. Resist the urge to trade Bell for Kareem Hunt, if you can.
All wasn’t lost for the running back position on Sunday, however, as Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette became the fourth rookie in club history to reach 100 rushing yards in a game, but he wasn’t the highest-scoring first-year player at the position for the day, as Chicago’s Tarik Cohen turned 13 touches (five rushing, eight receiving) into 113 yards and a touchdown, or 25.3 PPR points. Don’t worry if you selected Jordan Howard; your guy scored 15.2 PPR points, thanks to a touchdown, but moving ahead Cohen should be involved as a pass catching option at the least, perhaps as a James White or Duke Johnson Jr. type. Cohen saw 12 targets. By comparison, Howard caught 29 passes all of 2016. Adding Cohen likely makes more sense than adding Golladay.
Fourth down: While Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown did his normal and excellent thing and the top-10 scorers at wide receiver was a mix of proven veterans and surprises like Golladay and Philly’s Nelson Agholor, injury again accounts for the big story at the position. Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson, a top-five wide receiver for fantasy in 2015 but so disappointing last season as quarterback Blake Bortles failed to keep him relevant, likely tore his ACL on Sunday and will be lost for 2017. Robinson fell from coveted status during last season, but was still a seventh-round choice in ESPN ADP and was active in 31 percent of standard leagues this week, a figure topped by 28 wide receivers. The new Jaguars relied on suffocating defense and the running of Fournette to shock the Texans in their place Sunday, so don’t rush out to acquire Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee or any Jaguars receivers this week. The defense, however, which registered 10 sacks and forced four turnovers, albeit against underwhelming quarterbacks, should be owned in most leagues soon.
As for other fantasy relevant injuries, the Baltimore Ravens lost running back Danny Woodhead when he reaggravated a hamstring injury, and more clarity on his situation should be coming Monday as well. Woodhead is one of the preeminent pass catching running backs in the sport, having hauled in 106 passes in 2013 and 98 in 2015, but he missed most of the 2014 and 2016 seasons due to knee injuries and so far this one is looking a bit dubious. Don’t cut Woodhead yet, even if he needs to miss a few games, but this only reminds us that Terrance West has been underrated much of the summer. West ran for 80 yards and a touchdown before Javorius Allen was summoned for second-half work in the shutout at Cincinnati. West is capable of full-time work and, if healthy, could push his way into RB2 discussion with added responsibility.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/11/17
It was bad enough for fantasy players that Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson, the first pick in most ESPN live drafts, scored a mere 13.1 points in PPR formats at Detroit on Sunday, one of his worst statistical performances since becoming the team’s starter during the 2015 campaign. Then the news got worse. Johnson left prematurely after hurting his wrist after a third-quarter reception and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported it could cost the 25-year-old star several weeks or perhaps even half the regular season or more.
This is a big deal for the Cardinals, who enjoyed more than 2,000 total yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns from fantasy’s top performer last season. They will now likely turn to the diminutive Kerwynn Williams, who turned his six touches into a mere 12 yards Sunday, though he scored on a short touchdown run. Andre Ellington, several years ago a hot fantasy property but long forgotten, could also figure in, but sans Johnson the Cardinals will likely ask more of quarterback Carson Palmer and his receivers, which might not be possible.
After all, the Cardinals lost their game to the Lions and needed Palmer to throw 48 times, three of them intercepted. Aging Larry Fitzgerald, who led the NFL in receptions a year ago but did quite a bit of his fantasy scoring in the first five weeks, caught six of his 13 targets for 74 yards Sunday and remains a borderline top-20 wide receiver in PPR formats, but the Cardinals really rely on Johnson for a lot of this offense. Fantasy managers will make Williams a top free-agent target this week, but he still won’t come heartily recommended, even for a road tilt against a clearly terrible Colts team.
Injuries are the great equalizer in fantasy sports and we’ll await more clarity on Johnson’s situation Monday, but even if he misses half the season, you’re not dropping him and it’s not recommended to trade him for pennies on the dollar. It wasn’t too long ago that the reasonable expectation was for Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott to miss nearly half the regular season with a suspension that might never happen, and that caused him to fall merely to the end of the second round. Even if Johnson misses considerable time, he remains valuable. Don’t panic yet.
Second down: As for the aforementioned Lions, coming off an impressive 35-23 home win over a favored Cardinals team, Matthew Stafford was the lone quarterback in the 12 Sunday games entering the Giants-Cowboys tilt to score more than 20 fantasy points. Stafford tossed half his four touchdowns to rookie Kenny Golladay, who impressively leaped, dove and made quite the statement after entering play with little to no fantasy value. Golladay scored a pair of touchdowns in the first preseason game but then was quiet the rest of August, becoming forgotten in standard leagues, and wasn’t a sure thing to perform at all Sunday as he dealt with a sprained ankle. But perform he did, catching four of seven targets for 69 yards. Fantasy owners will surely flock to him as a pickup this week but should exercise a bit of caution: After all, with Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., Theo Riddick and perhaps Eric Ebron still likely to see more targets, this is likely Golladay’s fantasy ceiling, and he’s a rookie, and they rarely star at this position on a consistent basis right away.
As for Stafford, you'll miss out if you continue to underestimate him. A top-10 overall fantasy scorer each of the past two seasons, with differing options to throw to, there were 13 quarterbacks selected earlier in ESPN average live drafts and he was active in a mere 44 percent of leagues this week. However, the veteran continues to produce big numbers, and despite another seemingly difficult matchup in Week 2 at the Giants on Monday, he should be regarded as a top-10 quarterback again because the Lions can’t run the football and there’s no indication that will change anytime soon. Ameer Abdullah, healthy today but perhaps not tomorrow, ran 15 times for 30 yards. This is why Stafford made my top-10 quarterbacks for the season.
Third down: Johnson wasn’t the only top-10 option from ESPN ADP to disappoint fantasy owners. Pittsburgh Steelers star Le'Veon Bell was curiously underused in the close win at Cleveland, earning a mere 10 rushing attempts and catching only three passes, and in each case there were no games last season in which he had fewer of either mark. Perhaps Bell’s August holdout and lack of practice time necessitated the lack of touches, but it’s not like another Steelers player ran the ball often. In this case, injury doesn’t appear to be the culprit and Bell should warrant a top ranking even for a more difficult Week 2 matchup versus the Vikings. Resist the urge to trade Bell for Kareem Hunt, if you can.
All wasn’t lost for the running back position on Sunday, however, as Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette became the fourth rookie in club history to reach 100 rushing yards in a game, but he wasn’t the highest-scoring first-year player at the position for the day, as Chicago’s Tarik Cohen turned 13 touches (five rushing, eight receiving) into 113 yards and a touchdown, or 25.3 PPR points. Don’t worry if you selected Jordan Howard; your guy scored 15.2 PPR points, thanks to a touchdown, but moving ahead Cohen should be involved as a pass catching option at the least, perhaps as a James White or Duke Johnson Jr. type. Cohen saw 12 targets. By comparison, Howard caught 29 passes all of 2016. Adding Cohen likely makes more sense than adding Golladay.
Fourth down: While Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown did his normal and excellent thing and the top-10 scorers at wide receiver was a mix of proven veterans and surprises like Golladay and Philly’s Nelson Agholor, injury again accounts for the big story at the position. Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson, a top-five wide receiver for fantasy in 2015 but so disappointing last season as quarterback Blake Bortles failed to keep him relevant, likely tore his ACL on Sunday and will be lost for 2017. Robinson fell from coveted status during last season, but was still a seventh-round choice in ESPN ADP and was active in 31 percent of standard leagues this week, a figure topped by 28 wide receivers. The new Jaguars relied on suffocating defense and the running of Fournette to shock the Texans in their place Sunday, so don’t rush out to acquire Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee or any Jaguars receivers this week. The defense, however, which registered 10 sacks and forced four turnovers, albeit against underwhelming quarterbacks, should be owned in most leagues soon.
As for other fantasy relevant injuries, the Baltimore Ravens lost running back Danny Woodhead when he reaggravated a hamstring injury, and more clarity on his situation should be coming Monday as well. Woodhead is one of the preeminent pass catching running backs in the sport, having hauled in 106 passes in 2013 and 98 in 2015, but he missed most of the 2014 and 2016 seasons due to knee injuries and so far this one is looking a bit dubious. Don’t cut Woodhead yet, even if he needs to miss a few games, but this only reminds us that Terrance West has been underrated much of the summer. West ran for 80 yards and a touchdown before Javorius Allen was summoned for second-half work in the shutout at Cincinnati. West is capable of full-time work and, if healthy, could push his way into RB2 discussion with added responsibility.
Patriots, Saints options set to thrive in Week 2
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/13/17
The New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints enter Sunday’s game seeking their first victories and most people would probably admit to being shocked -- shocked! -- if the defending Super Bowl champs were to start 0-2. For fantasy purposes, it’s not all that relevant. There will be numbers in this game, and you won’t want to rely on the defenses. The Patriots will certainly move the football, but so will the Saints. Drew Brees threw for 291 yards in Monday’s loss at Minnesota. He should top that against a Patriots secondary that was shredded by the Chiefs’ Alex Smith.
The ESPN Fantasy Week 2 rankings show not only the immense confidence in Brady’s crew being able to produce many points in New Orleans, but Brees and his surrounding talent also fare well, and it’s nice to see a bit of rankings clarity for each team at running back. For example, heading into Week 1 the great Adrian Peterson was regarded by our rankers -- my hand is raised -- as a reasonable flex option. In hindsight, it was ridiculous to believe Saints coach Sean Payton would acquiesce to Peterson returning “home” to Minnesota and favor him for touches or anything near the goal line. He barely played. Mark Ingram is the running back to have and rely on for the Saints, and that’s reflected in our rankings.
Patriots running back Mike Gillislee didn’t have much room to run in the surprising home loss to the Chiefs but he was clearly the goal-line option and was able to convert for three short touchdown runs. It really does look like he could achieve what LeGarrette Blount did last season, yards, touchdowns, fantasy value and all. Gillislee moves into this week’s top-20 for PPR and non-PPR purposes for several rankers. No, he’s not expected to catch many passes, but touchdowns count for plenty and thus there’s non-PPR love as well. James White also saw a relatively heavy workload and should again this Sunday.
When it comes to the receivers, Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks are obviously top-10 options and the latter gets there not because it’s a “revenge” game against the team that didn’t give him quite the workload he wanted and then abruptly traded him. Brady to Cooks is a legit top-10 combination, just like Brees to Thomas. Danny Amendola, meanwhile, was far more involved in the New England game plan than Chris Hogan, as somewhat expected, and I’m surprised our rankings don’t reflect that. Mine do. Ted Ginn Jr. should have an easier time this week as well and should be ranked similar to how Tampa Bay’s DeSean Jackson is, for they are similar home run hitter-type players.
As mentioned earlier, this is not the week to use the Patriots’ D/ST. Brees is far more likely to turn the ball over in road games, and the scoreboard could light up on both sides for this one. Nobody would use the Saints D/ST, perhaps ever. But make no mistake, streaming defenses is a valid strategy; I lost two matchups in Week 1 thanks mainly to my opponent adding the Rams D/ST. It scored 29 points. I have to say, I’d be interested in going with the Rams again this week at home to Washington. Be careful if you drafted the Denver, Green Bay and Atlanta defenses. They might not fare so well this week.
Week 2 quarterback ranking thoughts: Don’t try to figure out if the Tampa and Miami offenses will be better or worse because they already had their bye weeks. Some believe they’ll be extra fresh, others rusty. Jameis Winston at home against the Bears is a great play either way, a top-10 play. Miami’s Jay Cutler at the Chargers feels like multiple interceptions. … I thought about the risk in giving Cam Newton a high rank because he might not need to do much again, just like Week 1 at San Francisco. He plays Buffalo. Let’s assume he gets better numbers but not necessarily on the ground. … Let’s assume Alex Smith does not light up the Eagles for 368 yards and four scores. The Chiefs haven’t drastically altered the game plan from recent seasons, and he’s not suddenly a top-10 fantasy option. That’s reflected in his tepid Week 2 ranking.
Ben Roethlisberger is home this week, but curiously, his ranking is actually worse than Week 1 when it was a road game! The Vikings’ secondary is strong. Perhaps Roethlisberger just isn’t a top-10 QB anymore, regardless of venue. … Rough ranking for Dak Prescott, but it’s warranted in Denver. I don’t expect another top-10 season from him. … Why are expectations so high for Houston rookie Deshaun Watson? Yes, Tom Savage looked slow and awful, but Watson, far more athletic, turned the ball over twice and didn’t exactly have good numbers. They were just better than Savage's. Don’t fall for this and trust the rookie on Thursday even against the Bengals. The Bengals aren’t so bad. It was one game.
Week 2 running back ranking thoughts: I was certainly surprised that in our initial rankings there wasn’t more interest in Arizona’s Chris Johnson. No, he wasn’t on the team until Tuesday. Yes, he was cut by the Cardinals a few weeks ago. But emphatically yes he might lead their running back depth chart. I’ve got him in my top 30 and assume he suits up this week against the brutal Colts. … Tough matchups for top options Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell, but I just couldn’t move someone like Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley or Devonta Freeman to No. 1. Gordon ran fine on Denver’s defense Monday. … Marshawn Lynch deserves his top-10 ranking because it’s a home matchup with the Jets, but he looked good in Week 1, breaking tackles and picking up extra yards. Don’t be shy here.
As for the rookies, Christian McCaffrey didn’t have the yards in Game 1 but he sure got the touches, and I think that’s really telling. Keep relying on him. I’ve got him top-10 again, and over Week 1 hero Kareem Hunt, though he’s top-10 as well. And what Leonard Fournette achieved in his first game can be repeated 10 more times this season. … It’s tough to make a case to use Bengals rookie Joe Mixon, but make sure he is picked up in your league before the Thursday game. Mixon will be the guy, but it might take them losing three of four in September to make that happen. … And just because you add Tarik Cohen, Javorius Allen or Kerwynn Williams this week doesn’t mean they need to be initially active. They’re depth additions.
Week 2 wide receiver ranking thoughts: I have nothing against Dallas star Dez Bryant, but this is another difficult matchup and he doesn’t make my WR2 section. Colleague Mike Clay warned of Bryant’s schedule back in August. … There’s much focus on how the Colts are a mess at quarterback, but they were awful defensively as well. The coach wasn’t even sure which team they had played. Larry Fitzgerald is the guy I’d start DFS lineups with and he’s in my top-10 for PPR and non-PPR again this week. Nobody ranked John Brown great, because we still don’t see many targets for him. … I whiffed so far on the 49ers’ Brian Hoyer looking competent, but still regard Pierre Garcon as a WR3 even at Seattle. … My only concerns with Keenan Allen were about staying healthy. Today he’s healthy, so he’s a top-20 receiver for me each week, almost regardless of matchup. I’m a bit surprised others don’t agree. … I might have been wrong in expecting Terrelle Pryor Sr. to produce considerably better numbers in Washington. He looked shaky Sunday. I rank him 20th at the Rams but don’t feel great about it.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
9/13/17
The New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints enter Sunday’s game seeking their first victories and most people would probably admit to being shocked -- shocked! -- if the defending Super Bowl champs were to start 0-2. For fantasy purposes, it’s not all that relevant. There will be numbers in this game, and you won’t want to rely on the defenses. The Patriots will certainly move the football, but so will the Saints. Drew Brees threw for 291 yards in Monday’s loss at Minnesota. He should top that against a Patriots secondary that was shredded by the Chiefs’ Alex Smith.
The ESPN Fantasy Week 2 rankings show not only the immense confidence in Brady’s crew being able to produce many points in New Orleans, but Brees and his surrounding talent also fare well, and it’s nice to see a bit of rankings clarity for each team at running back. For example, heading into Week 1 the great Adrian Peterson was regarded by our rankers -- my hand is raised -- as a reasonable flex option. In hindsight, it was ridiculous to believe Saints coach Sean Payton would acquiesce to Peterson returning “home” to Minnesota and favor him for touches or anything near the goal line. He barely played. Mark Ingram is the running back to have and rely on for the Saints, and that’s reflected in our rankings.
Patriots running back Mike Gillislee didn’t have much room to run in the surprising home loss to the Chiefs but he was clearly the goal-line option and was able to convert for three short touchdown runs. It really does look like he could achieve what LeGarrette Blount did last season, yards, touchdowns, fantasy value and all. Gillislee moves into this week’s top-20 for PPR and non-PPR purposes for several rankers. No, he’s not expected to catch many passes, but touchdowns count for plenty and thus there’s non-PPR love as well. James White also saw a relatively heavy workload and should again this Sunday.
When it comes to the receivers, Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks are obviously top-10 options and the latter gets there not because it’s a “revenge” game against the team that didn’t give him quite the workload he wanted and then abruptly traded him. Brady to Cooks is a legit top-10 combination, just like Brees to Thomas. Danny Amendola, meanwhile, was far more involved in the New England game plan than Chris Hogan, as somewhat expected, and I’m surprised our rankings don’t reflect that. Mine do. Ted Ginn Jr. should have an easier time this week as well and should be ranked similar to how Tampa Bay’s DeSean Jackson is, for they are similar home run hitter-type players.
As mentioned earlier, this is not the week to use the Patriots’ D/ST. Brees is far more likely to turn the ball over in road games, and the scoreboard could light up on both sides for this one. Nobody would use the Saints D/ST, perhaps ever. But make no mistake, streaming defenses is a valid strategy; I lost two matchups in Week 1 thanks mainly to my opponent adding the Rams D/ST. It scored 29 points. I have to say, I’d be interested in going with the Rams again this week at home to Washington. Be careful if you drafted the Denver, Green Bay and Atlanta defenses. They might not fare so well this week.
Week 2 quarterback ranking thoughts: Don’t try to figure out if the Tampa and Miami offenses will be better or worse because they already had their bye weeks. Some believe they’ll be extra fresh, others rusty. Jameis Winston at home against the Bears is a great play either way, a top-10 play. Miami’s Jay Cutler at the Chargers feels like multiple interceptions. … I thought about the risk in giving Cam Newton a high rank because he might not need to do much again, just like Week 1 at San Francisco. He plays Buffalo. Let’s assume he gets better numbers but not necessarily on the ground. … Let’s assume Alex Smith does not light up the Eagles for 368 yards and four scores. The Chiefs haven’t drastically altered the game plan from recent seasons, and he’s not suddenly a top-10 fantasy option. That’s reflected in his tepid Week 2 ranking.
Ben Roethlisberger is home this week, but curiously, his ranking is actually worse than Week 1 when it was a road game! The Vikings’ secondary is strong. Perhaps Roethlisberger just isn’t a top-10 QB anymore, regardless of venue. … Rough ranking for Dak Prescott, but it’s warranted in Denver. I don’t expect another top-10 season from him. … Why are expectations so high for Houston rookie Deshaun Watson? Yes, Tom Savage looked slow and awful, but Watson, far more athletic, turned the ball over twice and didn’t exactly have good numbers. They were just better than Savage's. Don’t fall for this and trust the rookie on Thursday even against the Bengals. The Bengals aren’t so bad. It was one game.
Week 2 running back ranking thoughts: I was certainly surprised that in our initial rankings there wasn’t more interest in Arizona’s Chris Johnson. No, he wasn’t on the team until Tuesday. Yes, he was cut by the Cardinals a few weeks ago. But emphatically yes he might lead their running back depth chart. I’ve got him in my top 30 and assume he suits up this week against the brutal Colts. … Tough matchups for top options Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell, but I just couldn’t move someone like Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley or Devonta Freeman to No. 1. Gordon ran fine on Denver’s defense Monday. … Marshawn Lynch deserves his top-10 ranking because it’s a home matchup with the Jets, but he looked good in Week 1, breaking tackles and picking up extra yards. Don’t be shy here.
As for the rookies, Christian McCaffrey didn’t have the yards in Game 1 but he sure got the touches, and I think that’s really telling. Keep relying on him. I’ve got him top-10 again, and over Week 1 hero Kareem Hunt, though he’s top-10 as well. And what Leonard Fournette achieved in his first game can be repeated 10 more times this season. … It’s tough to make a case to use Bengals rookie Joe Mixon, but make sure he is picked up in your league before the Thursday game. Mixon will be the guy, but it might take them losing three of four in September to make that happen. … And just because you add Tarik Cohen, Javorius Allen or Kerwynn Williams this week doesn’t mean they need to be initially active. They’re depth additions.
Week 2 wide receiver ranking thoughts: I have nothing against Dallas star Dez Bryant, but this is another difficult matchup and he doesn’t make my WR2 section. Colleague Mike Clay warned of Bryant’s schedule back in August. … There’s much focus on how the Colts are a mess at quarterback, but they were awful defensively as well. The coach wasn’t even sure which team they had played. Larry Fitzgerald is the guy I’d start DFS lineups with and he’s in my top-10 for PPR and non-PPR again this week. Nobody ranked John Brown great, because we still don’t see many targets for him. … I whiffed so far on the 49ers’ Brian Hoyer looking competent, but still regard Pierre Garcon as a WR3 even at Seattle. … My only concerns with Keenan Allen were about staying healthy. Today he’s healthy, so he’s a top-20 receiver for me each week, almost regardless of matchup. I’m a bit surprised others don’t agree. … I might have been wrong in expecting Terrelle Pryor Sr. to produce considerably better numbers in Washington. He looked shaky Sunday. I rank him 20th at the Rams but don’t feel great about it.
Best and worst wide receiver matchups for fantasy football Week 2
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
9/13/17
By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback line up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week.
Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 2 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.
To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet:
Downloadable cheat sheet PDF
Because of the size of the chart in the PDF, here is a key to help you get the most out of it each week:
Rt = Number of routes run by each player during the 2016 season
LWR/Slot/RWR = Percentage of the player's routes run from left wide receiver, the slot, and right wide receiver, respectively
T/R = Targets per pass route
F/R = Fantasy points per pass route
Green suggests an advantage for the offensive player, while red indicates an advantage for the defender
An "S" indicates projected shadow coverage
Advantageous matchups
Chiefs Tyreek Hill vs. Eagles Jalen Mills and Patrick Robinson
Hill had a huge Week 1 performance that included a 75-yard touchdown catch and it's fair expect a repeat performance this week against Philadelphia. Hill lines up all over the field and, to be frank, it won't matter who is up against him in coverage. Mills was picked on throughout his rookie campaign and it continued in Week 1 against Washington. The second-year corner was targeted a league-high 15 times and allowed 10 receptions for 114 yards. Patrick Robinson, Jaylen Watkins and Malcolm Jenkins will also be in the mix with Ronald Darby sidelined. Give Hill a big boost in your outlook for Week 2.
Falcons Julio Jones vs. Packers Damarious Randall and Davon House
In two games against the Packers last season, Jones caught 12 of 17 targets for 209 yards and two touchdowns over 63 pass routes. A majority of that production came against Ladarius Gunter, who was coincidentally waived on Tuesday, but life shouldn't be much tougher for Jones against Randall and House. Randall was targeted seven of the 11 times he was covering Paul Richardson and allowed four catches for 59 yards on Sunday. House was only targeted once on 25 routes in the game. Slot man Quinten Rollins allowed four catches on four targets for 64 yards, though Jones only lined up inside on 10 percent of his routes in Week 1. Jones has the looks of a DFS star in Week 2.
Broncos Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas vs. Cowboys Nolan Carroll II and Chidobe Awuzie
Sanders and Thomas had their hands full with the Chargers' top two corners in Week 1, but the duo that handled 52 percent of the team's targets last season is primed for a high volume and likely highly productive Week 2. The two will run most of their routes on the perimeter against Carroll and Awuzie. Dallas' top-two corners had success against Roger Lewis and Brandon Marshall, respectively, in Week 1, but they're unlikely to be as effective against the superior Sanders and Thomas this weekend. Orlando Scandrick is nursing a hand injury and is expected to sit out.
Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson vs. Colts T.J. Green, Rashaan Melvin and Nate Hairston
The loss of David Johnson for the next two to three months is obviously bad news for the Cardinals' offense, but it should result in larger target shares for the team's wide receivers. The boost in targets comes at a good time as the group is set to face off with one of the league's worst cornerback groups. Fitzgerald will primarily see Hairston in the slot, with the two Browns and Nelson running routes against Melvin and Green. Green allowed four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on five targets and Melvin surrendered six catches for 66 yards on seven targets in Week 1. Obviously, this is a big boost for all receivers in Arizona.
Patriots Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola vs. Saints P.J. Williams and De'Vante Harris
Amendola is questionable (concussion), but he'll operate as the heavily-targeted slot man against New Orleans if available. If he's out, Hogan -- who lined up inside on 65 percent of his routes in Week 1 -- will work inside against Williams. Harris is the team's top corner opposite rookie Marshon Lattimore, who played fairly well in his NFL debut and even traveled to shadow Stefon Diggs on four plays. Like Sam Bradford, Tom Brady figures to avoid Lattimore and go after Williams and Harris. Brandin Cooks lined up wide to Brady's left 61 percent of the time last week, which is where Lattimore aligned on 84 percent of the pass plays he was on the field for. Williams allowed 100 receiving yards (fifth-most in the league) on eight targets and Harris surrendered 98 yards (seventh-most) on eight targets in Week 1.
Tough matchups
Colts T.Y. Hilton vs. Cardinals Patrick Peterson
There were only a few shadow situations in Week 1, but Peterson latching onto Marvin Jones Jr. was one of them. While Kenny Golladay was busy giving Justin Bethel the business on the other side of the field, Jones was targeted on only two of his 42 routes. Peterson rarely travels to the slot (he didn't at all last week), so Hilton will get some occasional relief from the All-Pro corner. He'll see Tyrann Mathieu in those spots, which may not seem much easier, but Mathieu was torched for eight targets, eight receptions and 75 yards on 25 routes against Golden Tate in Week 1. If Peterson is glued to Hilton, Donte Moncrief will benefit from facing Bethel. The starter opposite Peterson was torched for a league-high 117 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit. If Chester Rogers returns from injury, that would likely mean more Hilton in the slot, which would lighten his load a bit. The Colts offense is a mess without Andrew Luck, so be careful navigating these matchups.
Dolphins DeVante Parker vs. Chargers Casey Hayward and Dolphins Kenny Stills vs. Chargers Jason Verrett
Last week, Hayward shadowed 6-foot-3 Demaryius Thomas and Verrett shadowed 5-foot-11 Emmanuel Sanders. This week, some simple dot-connecting suggests Hayward will follow 6-foot-3 Parker and Verrett will chase 6-foot Kenny Stills. It's very possible I have this backward or these guys simply play their sides, but the fact remains: Parker and Stills will have a steep challenge ahead of them facing this dynamic cornerback duo. Hayward allowed seven targets, five receptions and 81 yards on 24 routes against Thomas and Sanders in Week 1. Verrett was better, limiting Sanders to four targets, two catches and six yards on 20 routes. Neither player travels to the slot much, so this matchup obviously sets up well for Jarvis Landry inside. Expect him to feast on Trevor Williams.
Cowboys Cole Beasley vs. Broncos Chris Harris Jr.
Beasley is the Cowboys' primary slot man and lined up inside on 87 percent of his routes in Week 1. The Broncos almost never shadow, so Beasley can expect to see the league's best slot corner Harris on at least 90 percent of his routes this week. Keenan Allen managed only one catch on three targets for five yards on 16 routes against Harris on Monday night. Beasley shouldn't be close to your lineup in this one. Dez Bryant, meanwhile, will see some of Harris and Aqib Talib, but will also run a chunk of his routes against Bradley Roby. It's a spot where he can take advantage after Roby allowed four catches for 69 yards and one touchdown on eight targets against the Chargers.
Lions Golden Tate vs. Giants Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Tate was on this list last week and defied the odds by lighting up Mathieu to the tune of eight receptions on eight targets for 75 yards over 25 routes. He also caught two passes for 32 yards against Bethel. That said, life should be a bit tougher this week against Rodgers-Cromartie, who limited aforementioned Beasley to two catches for 25 yards on 19 routes in Week 1. When these teams met last year, the Giants were not shadowing early in the game, but seemed to change their plan once Janoris Jenkins went down with an injury early on. It's possible Jenkins shadows follows Jones, which would open the door for Golladay to see additional work against Eli Apple, who finished last season slowly and was picked on in Week 1.
Giants Odell Beckham Jr. (or Brandon Marshall) vs. Lions Darius Slay
When these teams met last season, Slay shadowed Beckham on eight of nine pass plays prior to leaving with an injury. On those eight plays, Slay allowed Beckham to catch both of his targets for 27 yards. Slay didn't shadow in Week 1, but that was expected since Arizona's top wide receiver (Fitzgerald) usually aligns in the slot. Slay rarely moved inside when shadowing Hilton, Jordy Nelson, Jordan Matthews, Kenny Britt, Allen Robinson and Michael Thomas on the perimeter last year. If Beckham (questionable) misses the game, Slay is a good bet to chase Marshall around the field. In that case, Marshall would be worth downgrading against one of the league's top cover corners.
Titans Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews vs. Jaguars A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey
Ramsey moved around and shadowed top receivers throughout his rookie year, but he was not asked to do that against Houston in Week 1. The likely reason for that is the presence of Bouye opposite him in the formation. Bouye was targeted 11 times in Week 1, but allowed only five catches for 40 yards. Ramsey allowed four catches for 27 yards on eight targets. The dynamic duo rarely moves to the slot, which means Davis (12 percent slot in Week 1) and Matthews (21 percent) will see them most often this week. That obviously means both should be downgraded. Eric Decker, meanwhile, lined up in the slot on 76 percent of his Week 1 routes. Aaron Colvin is a solid slot corner, but Decker and Delanie Walker should be peppered with targets considering the tough perimeter matchups.
Other notes
It's very possible the Falcons' Desmond Trufant shadows Jordy Nelson this week, but last season's two meetings between the teams suggests they won't. Of course, there were odd circumstances for both of those games. In Week 8, Nelson and Davante Adams played quite a bit in the slot since Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery were both out. In the NFC Championship, Trufant was out.
Josh Norman did not shadow Alshon Jeffery in Week 1, but did shadow Jeffery, Bryant, Beckham, Jones, Fitzgerald, Terrelle Pryor Sr., A.J. Green, and Kelvin Benjamin last season. That said, it's hard to know if he'll travel with Sammy Watkins this week. Considering how the Rams moved Watkins around so often in Week 1, I wouldn't worry much about shadow coverage. He should see plenty of Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland.
Xavier Rhodes shadowed top wideouts quite often last season, but surprisingly didn't chase Michael Thomas in Week 1. So it's hard to know if he'll follow Antonio Brown in Week 1. Based on how the two were used in Week 1, Brown will still see Rhodes on just under half his routes. Of course, he'll also see plenty of Trae Waynes, Terence Newman and Mackensie Alexander in that scenario, so Brown doesn't need to be downgraded much, if at all.
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
9/13/17
By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback line up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week.
Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 2 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.
To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet:
Downloadable cheat sheet PDF
Because of the size of the chart in the PDF, here is a key to help you get the most out of it each week:
Rt = Number of routes run by each player during the 2016 season
LWR/Slot/RWR = Percentage of the player's routes run from left wide receiver, the slot, and right wide receiver, respectively
T/R = Targets per pass route
F/R = Fantasy points per pass route
Green suggests an advantage for the offensive player, while red indicates an advantage for the defender
An "S" indicates projected shadow coverage
Advantageous matchups
Chiefs Tyreek Hill vs. Eagles Jalen Mills and Patrick Robinson
Hill had a huge Week 1 performance that included a 75-yard touchdown catch and it's fair expect a repeat performance this week against Philadelphia. Hill lines up all over the field and, to be frank, it won't matter who is up against him in coverage. Mills was picked on throughout his rookie campaign and it continued in Week 1 against Washington. The second-year corner was targeted a league-high 15 times and allowed 10 receptions for 114 yards. Patrick Robinson, Jaylen Watkins and Malcolm Jenkins will also be in the mix with Ronald Darby sidelined. Give Hill a big boost in your outlook for Week 2.
Falcons Julio Jones vs. Packers Damarious Randall and Davon House
In two games against the Packers last season, Jones caught 12 of 17 targets for 209 yards and two touchdowns over 63 pass routes. A majority of that production came against Ladarius Gunter, who was coincidentally waived on Tuesday, but life shouldn't be much tougher for Jones against Randall and House. Randall was targeted seven of the 11 times he was covering Paul Richardson and allowed four catches for 59 yards on Sunday. House was only targeted once on 25 routes in the game. Slot man Quinten Rollins allowed four catches on four targets for 64 yards, though Jones only lined up inside on 10 percent of his routes in Week 1. Jones has the looks of a DFS star in Week 2.
Broncos Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas vs. Cowboys Nolan Carroll II and Chidobe Awuzie
Sanders and Thomas had their hands full with the Chargers' top two corners in Week 1, but the duo that handled 52 percent of the team's targets last season is primed for a high volume and likely highly productive Week 2. The two will run most of their routes on the perimeter against Carroll and Awuzie. Dallas' top-two corners had success against Roger Lewis and Brandon Marshall, respectively, in Week 1, but they're unlikely to be as effective against the superior Sanders and Thomas this weekend. Orlando Scandrick is nursing a hand injury and is expected to sit out.
Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson vs. Colts T.J. Green, Rashaan Melvin and Nate Hairston
The loss of David Johnson for the next two to three months is obviously bad news for the Cardinals' offense, but it should result in larger target shares for the team's wide receivers. The boost in targets comes at a good time as the group is set to face off with one of the league's worst cornerback groups. Fitzgerald will primarily see Hairston in the slot, with the two Browns and Nelson running routes against Melvin and Green. Green allowed four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on five targets and Melvin surrendered six catches for 66 yards on seven targets in Week 1. Obviously, this is a big boost for all receivers in Arizona.
Patriots Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola vs. Saints P.J. Williams and De'Vante Harris
Amendola is questionable (concussion), but he'll operate as the heavily-targeted slot man against New Orleans if available. If he's out, Hogan -- who lined up inside on 65 percent of his routes in Week 1 -- will work inside against Williams. Harris is the team's top corner opposite rookie Marshon Lattimore, who played fairly well in his NFL debut and even traveled to shadow Stefon Diggs on four plays. Like Sam Bradford, Tom Brady figures to avoid Lattimore and go after Williams and Harris. Brandin Cooks lined up wide to Brady's left 61 percent of the time last week, which is where Lattimore aligned on 84 percent of the pass plays he was on the field for. Williams allowed 100 receiving yards (fifth-most in the league) on eight targets and Harris surrendered 98 yards (seventh-most) on eight targets in Week 1.
Tough matchups
Colts T.Y. Hilton vs. Cardinals Patrick Peterson
There were only a few shadow situations in Week 1, but Peterson latching onto Marvin Jones Jr. was one of them. While Kenny Golladay was busy giving Justin Bethel the business on the other side of the field, Jones was targeted on only two of his 42 routes. Peterson rarely travels to the slot (he didn't at all last week), so Hilton will get some occasional relief from the All-Pro corner. He'll see Tyrann Mathieu in those spots, which may not seem much easier, but Mathieu was torched for eight targets, eight receptions and 75 yards on 25 routes against Golden Tate in Week 1. If Peterson is glued to Hilton, Donte Moncrief will benefit from facing Bethel. The starter opposite Peterson was torched for a league-high 117 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit. If Chester Rogers returns from injury, that would likely mean more Hilton in the slot, which would lighten his load a bit. The Colts offense is a mess without Andrew Luck, so be careful navigating these matchups.
Dolphins DeVante Parker vs. Chargers Casey Hayward and Dolphins Kenny Stills vs. Chargers Jason Verrett
Last week, Hayward shadowed 6-foot-3 Demaryius Thomas and Verrett shadowed 5-foot-11 Emmanuel Sanders. This week, some simple dot-connecting suggests Hayward will follow 6-foot-3 Parker and Verrett will chase 6-foot Kenny Stills. It's very possible I have this backward or these guys simply play their sides, but the fact remains: Parker and Stills will have a steep challenge ahead of them facing this dynamic cornerback duo. Hayward allowed seven targets, five receptions and 81 yards on 24 routes against Thomas and Sanders in Week 1. Verrett was better, limiting Sanders to four targets, two catches and six yards on 20 routes. Neither player travels to the slot much, so this matchup obviously sets up well for Jarvis Landry inside. Expect him to feast on Trevor Williams.
Cowboys Cole Beasley vs. Broncos Chris Harris Jr.
Beasley is the Cowboys' primary slot man and lined up inside on 87 percent of his routes in Week 1. The Broncos almost never shadow, so Beasley can expect to see the league's best slot corner Harris on at least 90 percent of his routes this week. Keenan Allen managed only one catch on three targets for five yards on 16 routes against Harris on Monday night. Beasley shouldn't be close to your lineup in this one. Dez Bryant, meanwhile, will see some of Harris and Aqib Talib, but will also run a chunk of his routes against Bradley Roby. It's a spot where he can take advantage after Roby allowed four catches for 69 yards and one touchdown on eight targets against the Chargers.
Lions Golden Tate vs. Giants Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Tate was on this list last week and defied the odds by lighting up Mathieu to the tune of eight receptions on eight targets for 75 yards over 25 routes. He also caught two passes for 32 yards against Bethel. That said, life should be a bit tougher this week against Rodgers-Cromartie, who limited aforementioned Beasley to two catches for 25 yards on 19 routes in Week 1. When these teams met last year, the Giants were not shadowing early in the game, but seemed to change their plan once Janoris Jenkins went down with an injury early on. It's possible Jenkins shadows follows Jones, which would open the door for Golladay to see additional work against Eli Apple, who finished last season slowly and was picked on in Week 1.
Giants Odell Beckham Jr. (or Brandon Marshall) vs. Lions Darius Slay
When these teams met last season, Slay shadowed Beckham on eight of nine pass plays prior to leaving with an injury. On those eight plays, Slay allowed Beckham to catch both of his targets for 27 yards. Slay didn't shadow in Week 1, but that was expected since Arizona's top wide receiver (Fitzgerald) usually aligns in the slot. Slay rarely moved inside when shadowing Hilton, Jordy Nelson, Jordan Matthews, Kenny Britt, Allen Robinson and Michael Thomas on the perimeter last year. If Beckham (questionable) misses the game, Slay is a good bet to chase Marshall around the field. In that case, Marshall would be worth downgrading against one of the league's top cover corners.
Titans Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews vs. Jaguars A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey
Ramsey moved around and shadowed top receivers throughout his rookie year, but he was not asked to do that against Houston in Week 1. The likely reason for that is the presence of Bouye opposite him in the formation. Bouye was targeted 11 times in Week 1, but allowed only five catches for 40 yards. Ramsey allowed four catches for 27 yards on eight targets. The dynamic duo rarely moves to the slot, which means Davis (12 percent slot in Week 1) and Matthews (21 percent) will see them most often this week. That obviously means both should be downgraded. Eric Decker, meanwhile, lined up in the slot on 76 percent of his Week 1 routes. Aaron Colvin is a solid slot corner, but Decker and Delanie Walker should be peppered with targets considering the tough perimeter matchups.
Other notes
It's very possible the Falcons' Desmond Trufant shadows Jordy Nelson this week, but last season's two meetings between the teams suggests they won't. Of course, there were odd circumstances for both of those games. In Week 8, Nelson and Davante Adams played quite a bit in the slot since Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery were both out. In the NFC Championship, Trufant was out.
Josh Norman did not shadow Alshon Jeffery in Week 1, but did shadow Jeffery, Bryant, Beckham, Jones, Fitzgerald, Terrelle Pryor Sr., A.J. Green, and Kelvin Benjamin last season. That said, it's hard to know if he'll travel with Sammy Watkins this week. Considering how the Rams moved Watkins around so often in Week 1, I wouldn't worry much about shadow coverage. He should see plenty of Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland.
Xavier Rhodes shadowed top wideouts quite often last season, but surprisingly didn't chase Michael Thomas in Week 1. So it's hard to know if he'll follow Antonio Brown in Week 1. Based on how the two were used in Week 1, Brown will still see Rhodes on just under half his routes. Of course, he'll also see plenty of Trae Waynes, Terence Newman and Mackensie Alexander in that scenario, so Brown doesn't need to be downgraded much, if at all.
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