Fantasy 32: Key Week 6 tips on every team
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
Below are 32 notes covering each of the NFL's 32 teams from a fantasy perspective. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for Week 6. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OTD." OTD stands for opportunity-adjusted touchdowns. It is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. For example, if a player has an OTD of 3.0, it means that a league average player who saw the same number of targets in the same area of the field would have scored three touchdowns.
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Arizona Cardinals -- Michael Floyd failed to catch a pass in Week 5, and a big reason for it was a dramatically reduced workload. John Brown (61 snaps), Larry Fitzgerald (60) and Jaron Brown (31) all ran ahead of Floyd (22). The veteran receiver ran 17 of a possible 29 pass routes and was targeted three times. Floyd had been on the field for at least half of Arizona's snaps in 17 consecutive games before failing to hit the mark during the team's past two outings. Floyd is a risky flex option this week despite a terrific matchup against the Jets' miserable pass defense.
Atlanta Falcons -- The Falcons are getting a ton of attention as a result of their surging offense and 4-1 record, but don't overlook the fact that their defense is getting absolutely lit up by opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta is allowing passers to average a league-high 23.6 fantasy points per game. Prior to facing rookie Paxton Lynch in Week 5, Atlanta allowed at least three touchdowns and 281 yards through the air in four consecutive games. Interestingly, the Falcons are allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, which is actually lower than league average (7.5), but offenses are running a ton of plays (68 per game) and are forced to throw often (69 percent pass) against them. Next on the docket is a trip to Seattle, which means Russell Wilson, who is fresh off the team's bye week, is a solid top-five option at the position.
Baltimore Ravens -- Kenneth Dixon made his NFL debut in Week 5, but played sparingly and certainly does not appear to be a threat toTerrance West in the short term. Dixon was on the field for only four plays and either carried the ball or was targeted on each snap. West, meanwhile, put up yet another quality start (11 carries, 95 yards) on 28 snaps. Javorius Allenchipped in with nine snaps of his own. Dixon's upside makes him a worthwhile bench hold, but barring a drastic curveball thrown by new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, West's standing as the team's lead back should be safe.
Buffalo Bills -- Marquise Goodwin has been targeted 21 times this season, but he has caught only six for 125 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Goodwin's catch rate is obviously atrocious, but it's not his fault. Goodwin's 17.1 average depth of target (aDOT) is a product of many deep shots and Tyrod Taylor has struggled to hit his mark on many of those throws. In fact, 62 percent of Goodwin's targets qualify as "off target," which is the highest rate in the league for receivers with at least four targets. Goodwin has no drops but has been overthrown nine times and underthrown on four occasions. The speedster will provide the occasional long touchdown, but he's too volatile to trust in your fantasy lineup.
Carolina Panthers -- Cameron Artis-Payne exploded for 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns on Monday Night Football, but ESPN Panthers reporter David Newton told me on Monday that the team expects Jonathan Stewart back for its Week 6 game against the Saints. Artis-Payne is Stewart's clear handcuff, but keep in mind that he was a healthy scratch when Stewart was healthy heading into the team's first two games. Artis-Payne isn't the worst waiver wire add in case Stewart has a setback, but don't overspend, considering that he's nothing more than a short-term replacement.
Chicago Bears -- All but an unknown prior to Week 5, Cameron Meredith was forced into a major role in Chicago, following Kevin White's likely season-ending injury. Meredith, who stands 6-foot-3 with an impressive wingspan, posted nine receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 12 targets against the Colts. White had been handling a massive target share in this spot prior to his injury, so Meredith is positioned for a huge target load if he keeps up this strong efficiency. The former undrafted free agent is in the flex discussion against Jacksonville this week.
Cincinnati Bengals -- Brandon LaFell found the end zone twice against Dallas in Week 5, but it's unlikely that he'll be able to sustain flex numbers. The Bengals have run 215 pass plays this season, and LaFell has run 210 routes, which is nine more than A.J. Green and 58 more thanTyler Boyd. That's the good news. The bad is that LaFell's 18 percent target share figures to suffer with Boyd on his heels and Tyler Eifert due back in Week 6. Additionally, the Bengals have managed only eight offensive touchdowns this season, three of which have been runs. LaFell isn't the worst flex play during bye weeks, but he's not a quality weekly starter.
Cleveland Browns -- The Browns have allowed an NFL-high 80 fantasy points to the tight end position this season. That works out to 16.0 per game. Jordan Reed (nine receptions, 73 yards, two touchdowns), Zach Ertz (6-58-0), Dennis Pitta (9-102-0), Rob Gronkowski (5-109-0) and Martellus Bennett (6-67-3) have each had their way with Cleveland. The Browns also have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks and the sixth-most to running backs. This is obviously a unit that can be exploited at every level. The Browns head to Tennessee this week, which is good news for the prospects of Delanie Walker, DeMarco Murray, Marcus Mariotaand potentially even Tajae Sharpe.
Dallas Cowboys -- The Dallas offense has called pass on an NFL-low 51 percent of its snaps this season. The Cowboys are averaging 66 offensive snaps per game (eighth), 3.0 offensive touchdowns per game (sixth) and have scored a league-low 27 percent of their touchdowns through the air. In addition to utilizing a run-heavy game plan for the third year in a row, Dallas has been winning (4-1), which has allowed plenty of second-half rushing attempts. This is obviously terrific news for rookie Ezekiel Elliott, who is averaging 21.6 carries per game and has five touchdowns this season. Elliott's under-utilization as a receiver (nine targets) has him a step behind Le'Veon Belland David Johnson in terms of rest-of-season value, but he's clearly a top-end option at the position. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott's fantasy ceiling will continue to be limited by a lack of pass attempts, but his ability to add points with his legs keeps him in the QB1 discussion.
Denver Broncos -- C.J. Anderson has scored a trio of touchdowns this season, and a look at his rushing OTD suggests he's well on his way to a big season in the scoring department. Anderson's 3.7 OTD is third highest in the league behind only LeGarrette Blount (4.3) and Melvin Gordon(4.1). Anderson has converted two of his three tries from the opponent's 1-yard line and is now 7-of-11 (64 percent) in that department in his career. Anderson has accrued an NFL-high eight carries within 5 yards of the opposing goal line this season. Rookie Devontae Booker's role as a passing-down specialist is increasing, but Anderson remains Denver's lead and goal-line back. He's a quality RB1 play; and that's especially the case against San Diego in Week 6.
Detroit Lions -- Theo Riddick put up 82 yards from scrimmage and caught two touchdowns against the Eagles in Week 5. He now sits 13th among running backs in fantasy points but has been the definition of boom/bust. Riddick has a pair of top-six fantasy weeks on his résumé this season but finished 30th or worse the other three weeks. Dwayne Washington is due back from injury shortly, and he's a strong bet to eat away at Riddick's carries. In the meantime, Riddick is seeing enough work to allow RB2 production. Riddick should obviously be locked into lineups against the Rams and Redskins over the next two weeks.
Green Bay Packers -- The Packers are allowing an NFL-low 9.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Opponents are averaging a dismal 2.0 yards per carry against Green Bay, which is also lowest in the league. The Jaguars, Vikings, Lions and Giants have combined for 171 yards on 86 carries. That's certainly not the most imposing group of tailback units, but the Packers have a talented interior defense and the production can't be ignored. Considering how little he does as a receiver, this is certainly a red flag for the prospects of Elliott in Week 6. The rookie figures to push past 20 touches again, but don't expect his recent level of efficiency. He's a name to fade in DFS cash games.
Houston Texans -- The Texans revamped their offense during the offseason, but at least so far, the moves have not translated to many touchdowns. Houston has scored six offensive touchdowns in five games, which works out to an NFL-worst 1.2 per game. Much to the chagrin ofLamar Miller owners, the Texans are the only team in the league without a rushing touchdown this season. If there's one glimmer of positive here, it's that Houston is tied for the NFL lead with 14 field goal attempts. If the Texans can figure out a way to convert some of their trips to scoring range into touchdowns, the likes of Miller, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V will obviously benefit greatly on the stat sheet.
Indianapolis Colts -- Dwayne Allen has yet to emerge as a reliable starting fantasy tight end, but a close look at his usage suggests that he's in position to continue finding the end zone with regularity. Allen owns a 2.5 receiving OTD, which suggests that his two touchdowns are not only legit, but that he very well could have another. The 2.5 mark ranks 15th in the NFL, and is fourth among tight ends. Allen has caught both of his end zone targets and has been targeted three additional times while within 3 yards of the goal line. Through five games, Allen has posted career highs in pass routes per game (30.8) and targets per game (5.0), the latter of which includes a minimum of four in each outing. He sits ninth among tight ends in fantasy points but has been terribly inconsistent, posting two top-five weeks and three finishes of 20th or worse. Allen is a fringe TE1 this week against a Texans defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars -- The Jaguars have called pass an NFL-high 71 percent of the time this season. Jacksonville sits at 1-3 but has actually been fairly competitive and the pass-heavy play calling is more related to game plan than it is game flow. It shows up in the touchdown department as well. Jacksonville has scored seven of its nine offensive touchdowns (78 percent) through the air (sixth highest). The likes of Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson andAllen Hurns are off to slow starts this season, but the team's pass-heavy scheme will allow plenty of production throughout the 2016 season. All three should be in lineups against Chicago this week.
Kansas City Chiefs -- Travis Kelce is averaging a career-high 7.3 targets per game and has seen at least seven looks in each of the Chiefs' four games this season. Of course, targets have rarely been the issue for Kelce. The problem has been a lack of work near the goal line. Fortunately, it seems the Chiefs got the memo. Kelce already has posted a position-high 2.7 receiving OTD this season, which ranks 10th in the NFL, despite the fact that the Chiefs already have had their bye. Kelce has three end zone targets to his name (he caught one) and has been targeted three additional times inside the opponent's 8-yard line. Last season, Kelce caught three of four end zone targets and scored on one of only three additional targets inside the opponent's 10-yard line. His receiving OTD last season was 3.2, which means he very well could push past that mark against the Raiders' struggling defense in Week 6. Kelce is locked in as a quality TE1.
Los Angeles Rams -- Kenny Britt sits 43rd among wide receivers in fantasy points, and he now has posted a trio of top-35 fantasy weeks during the team's past four games. He has reached 67 yards in four different games but has yet to score a touchdown. Britt is enjoying a 21 percent target share, which is up from 16 percent last season. He has been on the field for 91 percent of the team's pass plays, which is also up from 73 percent in 2015. Six or so targets per game in a run-oriented, low-scoring offense isn't going to be quite enough for Britt to push into WR3 territory, but you could do worse in the flex during bye weeks.
Miami Dolphins -- The Dolphins' offense is averaging an NFL-low 53 snaps per game. The leaguewide average this season is 64.0, but Miami has yet to eclipse 65 plays in a single game and has totaled 84 snaps during its past two outings. Plain and simple, an average of 36 pass and 17 run plays per game isn't nearly enough to support much fantasy production. Sitting with a 1-4 record and often trailing in games, Miami has called pass 67 percent of the time this season, which makes them the league's No. 4 pass-heaviest offense. The Dolphins are averaging 2.0 offensive scores per game (20th) and have attempted a league-low five field goals, further showing their inability to get the ball into scoring position. Jarvis Landry's massive 32 percent target share keeps him in the weekly WR2 mix, but there are no other safe weekly starts in this struggling offense.
Minnesota Vikings -- Stefon Diggs sat out this week, which opened the door for a breakout game for Adam Thielen against Houston. The former undrafted free agent converted eight targets into seven catches for 127 yards and a touchdown. Thielen matched or eclipsed career highs in each of the four categories and paced the team's wide receivers by playing 65 snaps and running 30 pass routes. Before you rush to the waiver wire, however, keep in mind that Minnesota is on a bye this week, Diggs is the team's clear top receiver and is expected back from a groin injury in Week 7, and Thielen is no more than a role player in one of the league's run-heaviest offenses. Do not add him on waivers this week.
New England Patriots -- Tom Brady returned from his four-game suspension this week and no one benefited more than Bennett. The team's No. 2 tight end caught six of his eight targets for 67 yards and was on the receiving end of all three of Brady's touchdowns against Cleveland. Bennett is now the No. 2-scoring tight end in fantasy and has posted a top-six weekly finish during three of his past four outings. Rob Gronkowski is still the better fantasy option, but Bennett is very much a starting-caliber option at the tight end position.
New Orleans Saints -- Michael Thomas was fantasy's No. 16 scoring wide receiver during the two weeks prior to the Saints' Week 5 bye, but keep in mind that Willie Snead was out or limited in both outings. In those two games, Thomas enjoyed a team-high 22 percent target share and posted 11 receptions, 115 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 20 targets. In the two games prior, Thomas' target share was 13 percent, while the rookie posted 10 receptions, 114 yards and no touchdowns on 11 targets. With Snead back to full health, Thomas' usage will be reduced, which pushes him from WR2 territory into the flex mix.
New York Giants -- Victor Cruz went without a catch in Week 5, andSterling Shepard has been limited to six receptions during the Giants' past two games, but the good news is that playing time is the furthest thing from a concern right now. The Giants have taken the "11" personnel package to a new level this season, placing a third receiver on the field for every single one of their passing plays. Odell Beckham Jr. has run a route all 198 timesEli Manning has dropped back to pass and Cruz and Shepard sit at 196 routes each. The Giants' passing game is struggling to find the end zone, but all three players will be candidates for a rebound as long as they remain every-down players.
New York Jets -- Brandon Marshall has posted 12 receptions for 203 yards and two touchdowns during his past two outings, but he will certainly have his hands full with Patrick Peterson this week. Peterson is, of course, one of the league's top cover corners, and he almost always shadows the opposing No. 1 wide receiver on perimeter routes. Peterson has already shadowed Mike Evans, Goodwin and Tavon Austin this season. Marshall has lined up out wide on 88 percent of his routes this season, so he'll surely see a ton of Peterson. If Eric Decker returns, he'll also need to be downgraded against Cardinals slot corner Tyrann Mathieu. Both wide receivers should be avoided in DFS cash games.
Oakland Raiders -- Derek Carr has, once again, been terrific out of the gate, but we've seen this story before. During his first eight NFL games, Carr completed 61 percent of his passes, was off target 13.5 percent of the time and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. Over his final eight, his marks were 56 percent, 19.3 percent and 5.0. Last season, he averaged 64 percent, 15.5 percent and 7.7 marks in the first half and 59 percent, 19.0 percent and 6.4 yards after Week 9. Through Week 5 this season, Carr sits at 67 percent, 12.5 percent and 7.2. All three marks are career highs, but we've already been fooled twice. Carr is currently fantasy's No. 5 scoring quarterback, but make sure you have a fallback option for the stretch run.
Philadelphia Eagles -- On a per-game basis, the Eagles have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks (10.1), sixth-fewest to running backs (14.7), fifth-fewest to wide receivers (20.1) and the fewest to tight ends (1.1). Incredibly, the tight ends for Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Detroit combined for eight receptions for 52 yards and zero touchdowns against Philadelphia. The Eagles' schedule has been fairly light so far, and their upcoming slate includes the pedestrian (at best) offenses in Washington and Minnesota. The jury remains out on just how good Philadelphia's defense is, but investing in the Washington offense this week is quite risky.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- There was a lot of uncertainty surrounding second-year WR Sammie Coates a month ago, but he has quickly emerged as the team's premier deep threat. Coates scored two touchdowns, including a 72-yarder against the Jets on Sunday and now has at least one catch of at least 41 yards in all five games this season. It's unrealistic to expect this sort of consistent big-play production, but Coates has been on the field for nearly 70 percent of the pass plays and is enjoying a 16 percent target share in a high-scoring, pass-heavy offense. Coates will again be a WR3 option against the Dolphins in Week 6.
San Diego Chargers -- Offenses are averaging an NFL-high 3.4 touchdowns per game against the Chargers' defense this season. Additionally, opponents are averaging 68 offensive snaps (seventh highest) and calling pass 68 percent of the time (fifth highest) against San Diego this season. Despite sitting at 1-4, San Diego has led throughout or been competitive in each of its five games, which has led to tons of action from opposing passing games. San Diego has allowed at least three touchdowns in each of its four losses, including a minimum of one passing and one rushing score in the four games. Next up on the docket is a visit from the Broncos, who should have back the services of Trevor Siemian. The likes of Anderson,Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders obviously make for intriguing plays in DFS cash games.
San Francisco 49ers -- I'm the biggest Carlos Hyde apologist on the planet, so I hate to admit it, but it's a good time to at least explore selling high. Hyde has scored six rushing touchdowns in five games, despite a 3.5 rushing OTD. That 2.5 gap is the highest in the league, which helps confirm that he's a lock for regression to the mean in the touchdown department. Hyde has scored on three of his four attempts within 3 yards of the goal line, and the other touchdowns are from distances of 8 (twice) and 11 yards. Hyde does rank sixth in the NFL in rushing OTD, so the opportunities have been there, but he may struggle to double his touchdown total going forward. Hyde's uptick in targets last week is a good sign -- as is the fact that he's a terrific ball carrier -- so he's a perfectly fine hold, but don't be afraid to listen if someone comes calling with a trade offer this week.
Seattle Seahawks -- Was Tyler Lockett dropped in your league? Scoop him up. Lockett was fantasy's No. 35 scoring wide receiver last season despite seeing only a 14 percent target share while playing 63 percent of Seattle's snaps. This season, Lockett has been a major disappointment but reportedly was dealing with a torn PCL. After seeing the field for 94 percent of Seattle's pass plays and handling seven targets in Week 1, Lockett was clearly limited by the injury. During Weeks 2-4, Lockett was on the field for one-third of the pass plays and handled a total of six targets. If Lockett returns to an every-down role off of the team's bye, he will be back in the WR3 discussion.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Jacquizz Rodgers touched the ball a whopping 20 times in the first half and went on to post 129 yards on 35 touches against Carolina on Monday night. The Buccaneers now head to their bye week, and Doug Martin very well could be back in Week 7, so Rodgers should not be considered a priority waiver wire add this week. Of course, with Charles Sims done for the season, Rodgers figures to slide into his role as Martin's backup and the team's passing-down specialist. Rodgers won't be a strong weekly start in fantasy, but he has value as a handcuff and is worth rostering in PPR leagues.
Tennessee Titans -- Marcus Mariota has been a major disappointment this season, but the second-year quarterback torched the Dolphins on Sunday. Mariota completed 20 of 29 passes for 163 yards and three touchdowns. He also added 60 yards and a score on seven carries. Although impressive, this marks Mariota's first top-14 fantasy week of the season. An upcoming schedule that includes Cleveland, Indianapolis and Jacksonville is attractive, but his 7-5 TD-INT ratio and 6.6 YPA is not. Even upgraded against a soft upcoming slate, Mariota is no more than a QB2 in Tennessee's low-scoring, run-heavy offense.
Washington Redskins -- After running more routes than Pierre Garcon in both Weeks 1 and 2, Jamison Crowder has seen his role reduced during the past three games. Crowder played 108 snaps during the three-game stretch, compared to 139 for Garcon and 143 for DeSean Jackson. That workload has allowed him only 13 targets, which is tied with Jackson and trails both Garcon (19) and Jordan Reed (28). Crowder is not seeing enough work to warrant flex consideration, except in deep PPR leagues.
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
Below are 32 notes covering each of the NFL's 32 teams from a fantasy perspective. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for Week 6. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OTD." OTD stands for opportunity-adjusted touchdowns. It is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. For example, if a player has an OTD of 3.0, it means that a league average player who saw the same number of targets in the same area of the field would have scored three touchdowns.
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Tennessee Titans -- Marcus Mariota has been a major disappointment this season, but the second-year quarterback torched the Dolphins on Sunday. Mariota completed 20 of 29 passes for 163 yards and three touchdowns. He also added 60 yards and a score on seven carries. Although impressive, this marks Mariota's first top-14 fantasy week of the season. An upcoming schedule that includes Cleveland, Indianapolis and Jacksonville is attractive, but his 7-5 TD-INT ratio and 6.6 YPA is not. Even upgraded against a soft upcoming slate, Mariota is no more than a QB2 in Tennessee's low-scoring, run-heavy offense.
