Fantasy Football News 2014/15

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[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 15[/h][h=3]Jonathan Stewart, Andre Williams, Baltimore Ravens defense among top options[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com


Waiver-wire news changes throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants.


Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 15:


Standard ESPN league finds


Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (owned in 47.4 percent of ESPN leagues): Until Sunday, Stew Beef had averaged around 11 carries per game when he was healthy. In Week 14, he got 20 totes and responded with 155 rushing yards, a number which is, of course, skewed by his breakaway 69-yard TD. But the film doesn't lie: Stewart was terrific, albeit in a good spot against a bad New Orleans Saints run defense. With a solid remaining schedule (TB, CLE, @ATL), Stewart would figure to be a nice flex at minimum, but DeAngelo Williams could return to action and wreck it. D-Willy has a broken bone in his hand, and is considered questionable for Week 15. If Williams plays, Stew Beef loses some of his luster.


Andre Williams, RB, New York Giants (32.5 percent): Williams also got to face a soft run defense in Week 14, and responded with 147 yards from scrimmage. The Giants' remaining schedule isn't quite as easy as the Panthers' (WAS, @STL, PHI), plus Williams is actually Rashad Jennings' backup. Jennings was active Sunday but played only 16 snaps on his injured ankle; if Jennings gets healthy this week, Williams' workload will probably decrease. And the problem is, we won't know about Jennings until we actually see him play. So there's tons of risk relying on Williams, but some fantasy squads won't have a choice. He's not an instinctive runner yet, but the rookie is a thumper and showed good straight-line acceleration on his 50-yard TD.


Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts (14.0 percent): Reggie Wayne has a torn triceps and it's possible he won't play again this season. If that's the case, Moncrief will likely get the promotion he should've gotten weeks ago, as Wayne really doesn't look like he can play anymore. Moncrief made a big catch to set up the Colts' winning score Sunday, and played a career-high 45 snaps. I can make a case that as Andrew Luck's No. 2 wideout, Moncrief would deserve to be in the WR3 conversation every single week.


Baltimore Ravens defense (42.3 percent): The Ravens are just beneath my 50 percent threshold for this column, so they get the top spot as the defense that gets to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. That said, if you've been riding my St. Louis Rams recommendation from a couple of weeks ago, keep it going against Drew Stanton and the Cardinals Thursday night. And if you need a slightly deeper find, try the New York Giants (37.7 percent), who've scored 9 and 25 points the past two weeks in plus matchups, and get to host Washington in Week 15. (Washington has added 7.5 fantasy points onto the averages of the fantasy defenses they've faced in the past five weeks.)


Handcuffs: It's playoff time. As the weeks go by, your remaining opponents are going to be strong, and hopefully you've got the studs to keep up. Middling roster options with potential no longer need apply; rather, you're better off using roster spots backing up your RBs. Here's a list of current handcuffs you should own: Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs (23.8 percent); Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers (14.3 percent); Alfred Blue, RB, Texans (40.6 percent); James Starks, RB, Packers (5.3 percent); Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys (4.2 percent); Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks (3.0 percent); Branden Oliver, Chargers (22.4 percent); Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Bears (1.4 percent).


Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Mark Sanchez, QB, Eagles (40.7 percent); Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders (31.1 percent); Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins (33.6 percent); Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns (36.2 percent); Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts (49.1 percent).


Speculative standard-league finds

Harry Douglas, WR, Atlanta Falcons(2.2 percent): Julio Jones submitted an incredible Monday night with 11 catches for 259 yards, but he left the game early with a hip injury and as of this writing, it was unclear whether he'd be able to play in Week 15. If he misses time, Douglas would inherit a juicy role versus a leakyPittsburgh Steelers secondary. The Falcons are suddenly getting more protection from their offensive line, andMatt Ryan has back-to-back 350-plus-yard games.Kerwynn Williams, RB, Arizona Cardinals (0.2 percent): Stepfan Taylor(8.7 percent) started Sunday's game and looked pretty good. But Williams did a bit of work in the second quarter, then came out after halftime and ripped off a series of impressive runs through a Cardinals O-line that hadn't done anything for more than a month. That will probably get Williams more action going forward, though Taylor and Marion Grice (3.7 percent) will still be involved. Unfortunately, Arizona's schedule (@STL, SEA, @SF) will not lend itself to much fantasy glory.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears (0.1 percent): Brandon Marshall is out for the season, so there are targets to be had in the Windy City. Josh Morgan (0.0 percent) could also be in the mix, but Wilson looks like the upside guy to me. The Bears held onto him after he broke his collarbone this summer, and he looks the part: He's 6-foot-4 with 4.51 40 wheels. He's a bit wispy, but is still an interesting prospect who figures to get an audition with Jay Cutler at the end of this lost season.
Ben Tate, RB, Minnesota Vikings (30.1 percent): How much longer must we proceed with thisMatt Asiata charade? The dude just isn't a feature back. He had 19 carries Sunday and literally none of them made me take notice. He's a fullback. Tate played only 10 snaps (an increase from zero and seven the two previous weeks!), but injected a bit of life in the fourth quarter. The Vikings should be looking at him a lot, to see if they want him around to pair with Jerick McKinnon in '15. Will they? We'll see.
Other speculative standard-league waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks:Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns (10.3 percent); Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers (38.4 percent); Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints (9.9 percent); Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings (31.1 percent); Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings (1.6 percent); Davante Adams, WR, Packers (14.4 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (32.8 percent); Stedman Bailey, WR, Rams (30.4 percent); Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (23.2 percent); Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders (20.2 percent).
Deeper-league finds
Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans (2.9 percent): Justin Hunter is out for the season, and Kendall Wright missed Week 14 with a broken bone in his hand. Wright is considered questionable to return this week, which could mean Washington gets another spin as the Titans' top wideout. Of course, Sunday that led to only three catches on three targets, but Washington did run more routes than he had in any game this year. Alas, Jake Locker will be his quarterback in Week 15, but he does get to run against a bad New York Jets secondary.

Harry Douglas, WR, Atlanta Falcons(2.2 percent): Julio Jones submitted an incredible Monday night with 11 catches for 259 yards, but he left the game early with a hip injury and as of this writing, it was unclear whether he'd be able to play in Week 15. If he misses time, Douglas would inherit a juicy role versus a leakyPittsburgh Steelers secondary. The Falcons are suddenly getting more protection from their offensive line, andMatt Ryan has back-to-back 350-plus-yard games.

Kerwynn Williams, RB, Arizona Cardinals (0.2 percent): Stepfan Taylor(8.7 percent) started Sunday's game and looked pretty good. But Williams did a bit of work in the second quarter, then came out after halftime and ripped off a series of impressive runs through a Cardinals O-line that hadn't done anything for more than a month. That will probably get Williams more action going forward, though Taylor and Marion Grice (3.7 percent) will still be involved. Unfortunately, Arizona's schedule (@STL, SEA, @SF) will not lend itself to much fantasy glory.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears (0.1 percent): Brandon Marshall is out for the season, so there are targets to be had in the Windy City. Josh Morgan (0.0 percent) could also be in the mix, but Wilson looks like the upside guy to me. The Bears held onto him after he broke his collarbone this summer, and he looks the part: He's 6-foot-4 with 4.51 40 wheels. He's a bit wispy, but is still an interesting prospect who figures to get an audition with Jay Cutler at the end of this lost season.
Ben Tate, RB, Minnesota Vikings (30.1 percent): How much longer must we proceed with thisMatt Asiata charade? The dude just isn't a feature back. He had 19 carries Sunday and literally none of them made me take notice. He's a fullback. Tate played only 10 snaps (an increase from zero and seven the two previous weeks!), but injected a bit of life in the fourth quarter. The Vikings should be looking at him a lot, to see if they want him around to pair with Jerick McKinnon in '15. Will they? We'll see.
Other speculative standard-league waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks:Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns (10.3 percent); Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers (38.4 percent); Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints (9.9 percent); Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings (31.1 percent); Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings (1.6 percent); Davante Adams, WR, Packers (14.4 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (32.8 percent); Stedman Bailey, WR, Rams (30.4 percent); Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (23.2 percent); Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders (20.2 percent).
Deeper-league finds

Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans (2.9 percent): Justin Hunter is out for the season, and Kendall Wright missed Week 14 with a broken bone in his hand. Wright is considered questionable to return this week, which could mean Washington gets another spin as the Titans' top wideout. Of course, Sunday that led to only three catches on three targets, but Washington did run more routes than he had in any game this year. Alas, Jake Locker will be his quarterback in Week 15, but he does get to run against a bad New York Jets secondary.
 

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[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 15[/h][h=3]How to value Murray, Wilson and others in the weeks ahead[/h]

By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

Below are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.


(Note: I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.)

1. The Oakland Raiders seem to have received the memo: Latavius Murray is their best running back. Murray played 49 of a possible 60 offensive snaps Sunday. He carried the ball 23 times, which was nine more than his career total entering the game. Murray struggled to 76 rushing yards and failed to score against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has now allowed one rushing touchdown in its past six games. Life will be a bit easier this week as he takes on a Kansas City Chiefs run defense that was lit up by Kerwynn Williams on Sunday (more on him in a moment). Kansas City has limited its opponents to two rushing touchdowns on the year -- but both were to Murray, back in Week 12. The Raiders are forced to pass the ball a ton and rarely find the end zone, but Murray's size, speed and usage make him an intriguing RB2 option.


2. Brandon Marshall is done for the season, which leaves Marquess Wilson with a starting job in Chicago's skill position-friendly offense. About a month ago, I told you that, should one of Marshall or Alshon Jeffery go down, the 6-foot-4 Wilson would enter the WR3 discussion. Marshall handled one quarter of Chicago's targets in the seven games prior to Week 14. With only Josh Morgan on his heels for snaps, Wilson shouldn't have much trouble soaking up a good chunk of those looks. The 2013 seventh-round pick will be a WR3 against the New Orleans Saints in Week 15.




3. With Andre Ellington out of action Sunday, one of Stepfan Taylor or Marion Grice was expected to emerge as the Arizona Cardinals' lead back. Instead, it was Williams who led the unit, with 25 snaps. Seemingly out of nowhere, Williams racked up 100 yards on the first 19 carries of his career. Chosen by the Indianapolis Colts in the seventh round of the 2013 draft, Williams has already been waived three times in his career and, despite the breakout game, still projects as a change-of-pace back. At 5-8, 198 pounds, size is certainly not on his side. Williams did slip a few weak tackle attempts, but I didn't come away particularly impressed with his tape. Kansas City has been terrible against the run lately and Williams had big holes on several of his runs. Although he figures to lead the unit in snaps going forward, Williams is not a recommended start against the St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks or 49ers.


4. Since joining the New England Patriots in Week 12, LeGarrette Blount is 17th in fantasy points among running backs. He has 42 carries in the three games, which is 22 more than the rest of the team. Blount is not much of a factor as a receiver, which has led to the Patriots calling run on 70 percent of his 64 snaps. Shane Vereen, meanwhile, has handled 116 snaps in the past three weeks. He has 12 carries to go with his 15 targets. New England has called pass on a massive 90 percent of Vereen's snaps. Up next on the docket is a home bout with the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have struggled against the run as of late, but are good against the pass. Expect Blount to be busy. He's a decent RB2, while Vereen is an underwhelming flex option in PPR.


5. Through 14 weeks of play, Kelvin Benjamin paces the entire NFL with 19 end-zone targets. The rookie has nine touchdowns, seven of which have come on end-zone looks. Benjamin's nine drops (fourth most at the position) have been a popular discussion point, but his efficiency at the goal line has been right at league average. Sitting 14th in fantasy points among wide receivers, the massive 6-5, 240-pound Benjamin will continue to be Cam Newton's favorite target the goal line. He's a borderline WR1 play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week.

6. Through Week 9, Mohamed Sanu sat 13th in fantasy points among wide receivers. Operating as the Cincinnati Bengals' top wideout for a good chunk of that span, Sanu caught 39 passes for 628 yards and four touchdowns. Since Week 10, however, A.J. Green has been healthy and operating as Andy Dalton's go-to receiver. As a byproduct, Sanu has caught just 14 passes for 126 yards and one score in five games. Sanu's 13 drops this season are three more than any other player. Out of his league as an every-down player, Sanu is best viewed as a WR5 the rest of the way.
7. Frank Gore has three touchdowns this season, and a look at his usage suggests that his troubles in the category are no fluke. That's despite the fact that the veteran had scored at least eight times each of the past three seasons. So what's the problem? Gore has just one carry within 3 yards of the opposing end zone. He had 11 in 2013, nine in 2012 and 12 in 2011. He scored on 17 of those 32 carries. Gore is averaging two-thirds of the 49ers' carries since Week 9, but does very little as a receiver and the 49ers sit 28th in the league in offensive touchdowns. At Seattle this week, Gore should not be in any starting lineups.
8. Dan Herron was on the field for 46 plays against the Cleveland Browns, which was well ahead of Trent Richardson's 29. The duo has now split 56 carries right down the middle since Herron took over for Bradshaw in Week 12. Herron, however, has 12 targets, while Richardson has zero. Herron sits 15th in PPR fantasy points among running backs since the promotion. His upside will continue to be capped by the presence of Richardson, but the Colts' high-scoring offense keeps him in the RB2 mix. Start him against the Houston Texans in Week 15.
9. Malcom Floyd is 30th in fantasy points among wide receivers this season. He has more than the likes of Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson, Kendall Wright, Andrew Hawkins, Michael Crabtreeand even flavor of the month Jarvis Landry. Floyd is currently owned in 27.7 percent of ESPN leagues. Durability issues have derailed his career, but the 33-year-old has been producing WR3 numbers, when healthy, for years. Towering over corners at 6-5, 225 pounds and seeing a ton of downfield targets from Philip Rivers -- Floyd's average depth of target is highest in the NFL among wide receivers who have seen at least 40 targets -- the veteran is WR3 material down the stretch.
10. The Buffalo Bills' pass defense makes for a very interesting case study. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 14 touchdowns in 13 games against Buffalo this season. Although that's extremely impressive, consider their opponents in those games, as seen in the chart at right.
[h=4]Buffalo Bills Passing Defense[/h]
OpponentTDs allowed
NE4
CHI, SD, MIA2
MIA, HOU, DET, MIN1
NYJ (x2), KC, CLE, DEN0

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In the four games the Bills allowed two or more passing touchdowns, they totaled two interceptions and 12 sacks. In their nine other games, they had 15 picks and 41 sacks. Holding Denver to 49 offensive plays and zero passing touchdowns was impressive, but otherwise, the schedule has been a relative breeze. This is important information asAaron Rodgers heads to Buffalo in Week 15, andTom Brady hosts the Bills in Week 17.
11. Jerick McKinnon was sent to injured reserve last week, which left Matt Asiata as theMinnesota Vikings' lead back against the New York Jets on Sunday. Asiata was on the field for 45 of a possible 58 snaps in the game. Ben Tate (10 snaps) and Joe Banyard (three) were limited to complementary roles. Asiata managed just 64 yards on 22 touches and, although volume in fantasy is sometimes just as good as efficiency, he should not be in starting lineups with theDetroit Lions and Dolphins on tap over the next two weeks.
12. Mark Ingram played a season-low 16 snaps against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Of course, with New Orleans trailing the entire game, game flow is clearly to blame. New Orleans all but abandoned its running game, calling 52 passes and 16 runs. That led to 35 snaps for Pierre Thomas and 17 for Travaris Cadet. Of those 55 plays, 48 were passes. After totaling 12 rushing touchdowns in their first eight games, the Saints have zero in their past five. With the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons and Buccaneers left on the schedule, we should expect a rebound from this offense. Despite the recent struggles, Ingram remains a decent RB2 play.
13. After playing 91 percent of the New York Giants' offensive snaps during Weeks 1-12, Rueben Randle was down to 64 percent in the past two weeks. Struggling with efficiency, especially around the end zone and after the catch, Randle is losing reps to pedestrian journeymen Preston Parker and Kevin Ogletree. Having failed to break out despite a massive target load in his third pro season, Randle is beginning to look like a bust. The 2012 second-round pick should obviously not be in starting lineups.
14. One of the poster boys for touchdown regression this season, Jared Cook found the end zone twice against the Washington Redskins on Sunday. Through Week 10, Cook's 48 targets were tops in the entire league among players who had yet to catch a touchdown. Since that point, he's scored three times and is fourth in fantasy points among tight ends. Despite the surge in fantasy production, Cook is not to be inserted into starting lineups. After averaging 45.6 snaps per game during Weeks 1-10, he's at 32.3 in the past four weeks. Cook totaled 40 targets during his first five games, but has seen 31 in his past eight.
15. After averaging 3.2 passing touchdowns per game during the Broncos' first nine games,Peyton Manning is averaging 1.8 in their past four. Color me unconcerned. With trips to St. Louis and Kansas City and home games against Buffalo and Miami, Denver's schedule has been brutal. Yes, the Broncos have gone with a run-first approach as of late, but they were balanced in 2013 and on the run-heavy side of the league in 2012. Manning has a plus matchup at San Diego in Week 15, and should have Julius Thomas back. He remains an elite QB1 play.
16. Isaiah Crowell continues to shine, but Terrance West simply is not going away. Crowell found the end zone Sunday, but he actually played four fewer snaps than West. Crowell sits 12th in fantasy points among running backs since Ben Tate was waived, but an unsustainable pace of three touchdowns in three games is what has him there. Averaging 14.3 carries and 0.7 targets per game in the past three weeks, Crowell will again be a boom-or-bust RB2 play in Week 15 with Cincinnati as the opponent.
17. Steven Jackson is 12th in fantasy points among running backs during the past five weeks. Now 31 years old, Jackson is past his prime, but he's seeing enough volume in a competent offense to perform at a high level. He does very little as a receiver (18 receptions for the year), but he's 14th in the league in carries and has six touchdowns. Playing roughly half of Atlanta's snaps, Jackson's ceiling remains low, but you could do a lot worse at the RB2 slot.


6. Through Week 9, Mohamed Sanu sat 13th in fantasy points among wide receivers. Operating as the Cincinnati Bengals' top wideout for a good chunk of that span, Sanu caught 39 passes for 628 yards and four touchdowns. Since Week 10, however, A.J. Green has been healthy and operating as Andy Dalton's go-to receiver. As a byproduct, Sanu has caught just 14 passes for 126 yards and one score in five games. Sanu's 13 drops this season are three more than any other player. Out of his league as an every-down player, Sanu is best viewed as a WR5 the rest of the way.
7. Frank Gore has three touchdowns this season, and a look at his usage suggests that his troubles in the category are no fluke. That's despite the fact that the veteran had scored at least eight times each of the past three seasons. So what's the problem? Gore has just one carry within 3 yards of the opposing end zone. He had 11 in 2013, nine in 2012 and 12 in 2011. He scored on 17 of those 32 carries. Gore is averaging two-thirds of the 49ers' carries since Week 9, but does very little as a receiver and the 49ers sit 28th in the league in offensive touchdowns. At Seattle this week, Gore should not be in any starting lineups.
8. Dan Herron was on the field for 46 plays against the Cleveland Browns, which was well ahead of Trent Richardson's 29. The duo has now split 56 carries right down the middle since Herron took over for Bradshaw in Week 12. Herron, however, has 12 targets, while Richardson has zero. Herron sits 15th in PPR fantasy points among running backs since the promotion. His upside will continue to be capped by the presence of Richardson, but the Colts' high-scoring offense keeps him in the RB2 mix. Start him against the Houston Texans in Week 15.
9. Malcom Floyd is 30th in fantasy points among wide receivers this season. He has more than the likes of Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson, Kendall Wright, Andrew Hawkins, Michael Crabtreeand even flavor of the month Jarvis Landry. Floyd is currently owned in 27.7 percent of ESPN leagues. Durability issues have derailed his career, but the 33-year-old has been producing WR3 numbers, when healthy, for years. Towering over corners at 6-5, 225 pounds and seeing a ton of downfield targets from Philip Rivers -- Floyd's average depth of target is highest in the NFL among wide receivers who have seen at least 40 targets -- the veteran is WR3 material down the stretch.
10. The Buffalo Bills' pass defense makes for a very interesting case study. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 14 touchdowns in 13 games against Buffalo this season. Although that's extremely impressive, consider their opponents in those games, as seen in the chart at right.
[h=4]Buffalo Bills Passing Defense[/h]
OpponentTDs allowed
NE4
CHI, SD, MIA2
MIA, HOU, DET, MIN1
NYJ (x2), KC, CLE, DEN0

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</tbody>


In the four games the Bills allowed two or more passing touchdowns, they totaled two interceptions and 12 sacks. In their nine other games, they had 15 picks and 41 sacks. Holding Denver to 49 offensive plays and zero passing touchdowns was impressive, but otherwise, the schedule has been a relative breeze. This is important information asAaron Rodgers heads to Buffalo in Week 15, andTom Brady hosts the Bills in Week 17.
11. Jerick McKinnon was sent to injured reserve last week, which left Matt Asiata as theMinnesota Vikings' lead back against the New York Jets on Sunday. Asiata was on the field for 45 of a possible 58 snaps in the game. Ben Tate (10 snaps) and Joe Banyard (three) were limited to complementary roles. Asiata managed just 64 yards on 22 touches and, although volume in fantasy is sometimes just as good as efficiency, he should not be in starting lineups with theDetroit Lions and Dolphins on tap over the next two weeks.
12. Mark Ingram played a season-low 16 snaps against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Of course, with New Orleans trailing the entire game, game flow is clearly to blame. New Orleans all but abandoned its running game, calling 52 passes and 16 runs. That led to 35 snaps for Pierre Thomas and 17 for Travaris Cadet. Of those 55 plays, 48 were passes. After totaling 12 rushing touchdowns in their first eight games, the Saints have zero in their past five. With the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons and Buccaneers left on the schedule, we should expect a rebound from this offense. Despite the recent struggles, Ingram remains a decent RB2 play.
13. After playing 91 percent of the New York Giants' offensive snaps during Weeks 1-12, Rueben Randle was down to 64 percent in the past two weeks. Struggling with efficiency, especially around the end zone and after the catch, Randle is losing reps to pedestrian journeymen Preston Parker and Kevin Ogletree. Having failed to break out despite a massive target load in his third pro season, Randle is beginning to look like a bust. The 2012 second-round pick should obviously not be in starting lineups.
14. One of the poster boys for touchdown regression this season, Jared Cook found the end zone twice against the Washington Redskins on Sunday. Through Week 10, Cook's 48 targets were tops in the entire league among players who had yet to catch a touchdown. Since that point, he's scored three times and is fourth in fantasy points among tight ends. Despite the surge in fantasy production, Cook is not to be inserted into starting lineups. After averaging 45.6 snaps per game during Weeks 1-10, he's at 32.3 in the past four weeks. Cook totaled 40 targets during his first five games, but has seen 31 in his past eight.
15. After averaging 3.2 passing touchdowns per game during the Broncos' first nine games,Peyton Manning is averaging 1.8 in their past four. Color me unconcerned. With trips to St. Louis and Kansas City and home games against Buffalo and Miami, Denver's schedule has been brutal. Yes, the Broncos have gone with a run-first approach as of late, but they were balanced in 2013 and on the run-heavy side of the league in 2012. Manning has a plus matchup at San Diego in Week 15, and should have Julius Thomas back. He remains an elite QB1 play.
16. Isaiah Crowell continues to shine, but Terrance West simply is not going away. Crowell found the end zone Sunday, but he actually played four fewer snaps than West. Crowell sits 12th in fantasy points among running backs since Ben Tate was waived, but an unsustainable pace of three touchdowns in three games is what has him there. Averaging 14.3 carries and 0.7 targets per game in the past three weeks, Crowell will again be a boom-or-bust RB2 play in Week 15 with Cincinnati as the opponent.
17. Steven Jackson is 12th in fantasy points among running backs during the past five weeks. Now 31 years old, Jackson is past his prime, but he's seeing enough volume in a competent offense to perform at a high level. He does very little as a receiver (18 receptions for the year), but he's 14th in the league in carries and has six touchdowns. Playing roughly half of Atlanta's snaps, Jackson's ceiling remains low, but you could do a lot worse at the RB2 slot.


28. With Justin Hunter on injured reserve and Kendall Wright out with a hand injury, the Titans were left withNate Washington (56 snaps), Derek Hagan (51) and Kris Durham (46) at wide receiver Sunday. Surprisingly, the trio was absurdly efficient, hauling in 12 of 13 targets for 148 yards. Tennessee failed to score an offensive touchdown in the game, but does have a plus matchup against the Jets' weak secondary in Week 15. Washington remains a WR3 sleeper, but Hagan and Durham can be ignored, especially if Wright is able to return.
29. Andre Johnson went down with a concussion early in Sunday's game, which allowed Keshawn Martin to step into a near-every-down role. Martin worked 43 snaps oppositeDeAndre Hopkins (58). Slot man Damaris Johnson was in on 47 plays. Andre Johnson may miss a game or two, but Martin and Damaris Johnson remain well off the fantasy radar. The duo combined for two receptions and 23 yards on four targets Sunday. Having called run 48 percent of the time this season, the Texans are the league's run-heaviest team.
30. Since returning from injured reserve in Week 12, Marcedes Lewis has a total of nine targets in three games. It's helped him to six receptions, 72 yards and zero scores. The good news is that Lewis' routes, targets, receptions and yards have progressively increased each week. The bad news is that he's stuck in an offense averaging a league-worst 1.5 offensive touchdowns per game. Leave Lewis on waivers.
31. Dealing with a knee injury, Torrey Smith managed 15 snaps Sunday. Kamar Aiken had a career day in his place, racking up six receptions, 65 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Undrafted back in 2011, the journeyman has settled in with the Baltimore Ravens after bouncing around the league for a few years. Should Smith miss Week 15, Aiken figures to start at split end, but would be nothing more than a WR5. The Ravens sit sixth in offensive touchdowns, but they operate the league's fifth run-heaviest offense and should be able to run it plenty at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
32. The Redskins have called pass on 86 percent of Roy Helu's snaps this season. Helu is expected to miss Week 15 due to turf toe, leaving undrafted rookie Silas Redd to handle passing-down duties. Redd played 11 snaps in relief of Helu on Sunday, and was targeted four times. The Redskins will look to rely heavily on Alfred Morris against the Giants' struggling run defense this week, meaning Redd should be ignored except as a desperation PPR flex in 16-team leagues.
 

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[h=1]Top 10 keeper RBs for 2015[/h][h=3]Le'Veon Bell leads rank of backs with most fantasy value for next three years[/h]
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

The running back position will finally get a significant influx of top-flight talent in the 2015 NFL draft, but the overall lack of depth here means quality ball carriers will still be a rare commodity moving forward.

This is especially true in keeper leagues, so this second in a four-part Fantasy Foresight review of keeper candidates (quarterbacks can be found here) will take a look at the top 10 running back keeper candidates and rank them according to perceived value for the next three years.
This week's article also includes three players whose Week 14 successes or failures will continue this season, one player whose performance in Week 14 will not serve as a barometer for the future and three early waiver-wire candidates heading into Week 15.
For the methodology, click here.
Here are the top 10 keeper RBs for 2015:


[h=3]Top 10 keeper RBs for 2015[/h]
i


1. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
<offer></offer>
Bell was one of the best yards-after-contact backs during his college football career, and that trait has carried over into the NFL. His 535 yards after contact total this season ranks third in the league, and his 2.21 yards after contact per rush average ranks seventh. Bell's PPR value might be best highlighted by his 10 games with five or more receptions, a total that ranks second among running backs and tied for third among all players. Further, he has the fewest question marks among the top RBs.

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2. DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys
Murray's elite production is what ranks him so high, but his candidacy is not without question marks. If he finishes out the season at his current carry pace, Murray will have 393 rush attempts, a total that would rank in the top 10 all timefor a single season. That he didn't post this type of total until in a contract year is a concern, as is the possibility he could end up leaving Dallas and thus not benefit from the Cowboys' elite run-blocking wall in the future.

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3. Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
Ellington quickly went from a sixth-round pick with durability question marks to a bona fide fantasy football RB1, but keeping him does come with some risk. He has battled injuries this year, and might be showing signs of wearing down after registering 490 offensive snaps in Weeks 1-12 (ranked fifth among running backs in that time frame). Bruce Arians wants Ellington to be a bell cow, but a lead/alternate setup could be a better fit, albeit one that would somewhat reduce Ellington's fantasy value.

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4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Forte has been a perfect fit in Marc Trestman's offense. In his two seasons in this system, Forte has posted career highs in fantasy points per game (15.7 last year, 15.4 this year) and PPR fantasy points per game (20.3 last year, 22.0 this year). The only thing keeping him from ranking at the top of this list is a career wear-and-tear level that adds a bit of risk to his future outlook. The outside chance that Trestman could lose his job also adds some risk to Forte's keeper case.

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5. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
Lacy has posted eight double-digit fantasy point games this year despite gaining 100 or more rushing yards in only two contests. That he has been able to do this despite catching more than three passes in a game only once this year shows that he really makes the most out of every opportunity he is given. If the Packers ever decided to lean on him more, Lacy could easily end up as the No. 1 back in fantasy football.

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6. Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams
It is far from common for a back to increase his productivity levels from college to the pros, but Mason has done that in at least one significant way. Last season, in his final campaign at Auburn, Mason posted a 7.5-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt metric, which gauges a ball carrier's productivity when given good blocking (very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). This year, Mason has posted an 8.2 GBYPA mark. His improvement here bodes well for his ability to get even better as he acclimates to being a full-time starter in the NFL.

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7. Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
Forsett has been a superb fit in Gary Kubiak's offense. He ranks fifth among running backs in yards from scrimmage (1,314). He also has a relatively low career wear/tear level. So why doesn't he rate higher? Part of it is his PPR value, which was higher earlier this year (23 receptions in his first five games) but has dropped off since (14 receptions in his past eight games). This drop-off brings to mind durability questions that will always be asked about a back who is just 5-foot-8 and 197 pounds.

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8. Rashad Jennings, New York Giants
Jennings got out of the gate quickly this season and looked to be a leading contender for a rushing yardage crown after racking up 176 yards against Houston in Week 3. Since then, though, he has posted only 317 yards on the ground and 110 yards through the air. He has never tallied a combined total of 200 or more carries/receptions in a season, and might not do so this year if he doesn't recover from his ankle injury. The talent level is without question, but his ability to stay in the lineup isquestionable.

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9. Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
Ball has the skills to warrant top production projections, but given that he has only four double-digit fantasy point games in his first two NFL seasons, it seems a bit premature to forecast him with such high future value. As long as Ball is healthy and Peyton Manning is under center for Denver, Ball will have fantasy RB1 potential, but the long-term uncertainty of both of those elements precludes his being ranked higher than this.

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10. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
Injuries have hampered Bernard's production of late, but posting double-digit point totals in 12 of his first 23 pro games provides an indication of how well he can carry an RB1 fantasy football role when healthy. The major concern for Bernard is whether Jeremy Hill could turn the Cincinnati backfield into a lead/alternate setup with Hill as the lead back, but that doesn't seem likely to happen.

[h=3]Week 14 performances that will continue[/h]
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Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
To be clear, this does not mean Manning is headed for another two-point showing any time in the near future. Having noted this, games at San Diego (ninth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks since Week 11) and Cincinnati (fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks since Week 8) don't look to be matchups that will turn things around for a Broncos passing game that has been faltering for the past three weeks.

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Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
The idea of leaning on a Panthers running back in the fantasy playoffs might have seemed crazy before this past Sunday, but after Stewart posted 155 yards and a touchdown against the Saints, it doesn't seem quite so reckless. Since the Panthers have green-rated run defense matchups (green indicating a highly favorable matchup) in every remaining game on their schedule, not getting Stewart in the lineup from here on out seems like the crazy idea.

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Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis Rams
Cook's 18-point showing against Washington certainly makes it seem as if he is a good option for those looking for fantasy playoff tight end upgrades. A Week 15 matchup against Arizona, a team that allows the seventh-most points per game to opposing TEs (8.7) and just let Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce post seven receptions for 110 yards, adds to that perception and enhances Cook's upside.

[h=3]Week 14 performances that won't continue[/h]
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LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
A three-point game against Seattle might have been the last playoff straw for many of McCoy's fantasy owners, but for those who have him and are still in the postseason, don't lose faith. Philadelphia's matchup against Dallas, a club that ranks 23rd in fantasy points allowed per game on rushing plays by running backs, should warrant putting McCoy back in the starting lineup in Week 15.

[h=3]Three waiver-wire pickups to make[/h]
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Chris Johnson, RB, New York Jets (owned in 30.5 percent of ESPN leagues)
Trust Johnson for a fantasy title tilt? Before knocking it, know this: The Jets' Week 15 opponent is Tennessee, a team that ranks No. 1 in running back points allowed per game this year (21.7). Johnson has 33 rushes for 158 yards the past two weeks, and those totals will increase in this matchup.

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Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (owned in 35.3 percent of ESPN leagues)
The Eagles might not target tight ends very often, but there is reason they might do so this weekend: Chicago faced Dallas, Philadelphia's Week 15 opponent, last week and sent 15 passes in Martellus Bennett's direction. Bennett turned those targets into 12 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. Chip Kelly won't send that many passes in Ertz's direction, but, even if he sends him half that many throws, it will be worth getting Ertz into the lineup.

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Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders (owned in 31.2 percent of ESPN leagues)
Murray was one of the biggest start/sit quandaries for fantasy owners headed into Week 14. His 23 carries against San Francisco show he is healthy once again. A Week 15 matchup against Kansas City, a team that has given up 100 or more yards to running back corps in six consecutive games, offers an upside fantasy point path. He's worthy of at least a flex start in Week 15.
 

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[h=1]Week 15 flex rankings
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[/h]
By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider

For many in ESPN leagues, this is going to be the final week of the fantasy season, as it's the playoff semifinals and, well, someone's going to win each matchup and someone's going to lose. Hopefully you're on the winning side, and these rankings, along with the multitude of information provided by me and my far smarter colleagues at ESPN Fantasy, worked to inform and entertain you along the way. So, here is the latest compilation of the top running backs, wide receivers and tight ends all in one tidy list. Whether you're trailing or leading, pick the best options.And as always, best of luck to all in Week 15 and beyond!
1. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: He's certainly on his way to finishing as fantasy's top non-quarterback. Matchups no longer matter with him.

2. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Regularly torches the Colts, and this weekend shouldn't be any different. Nice to see him healthy again.

3. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Like Foster, he's achieved great success against this week's foe, the Raiders. Well really, who hasn't?

4. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: He might end up with more than 100 receptions. I'd like to see that, actually.

5. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: Still really, really good, and still really, really healthy. For those who thought it wasn't possible.

6. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles

7. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: Tough to be too concerned about a player with 22 or more fantasy points in four of five games.

8. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: There's literally nobody else we can count on for this many receptions and yards every week. Brown is amazing. Only two running backs have outscored him.

9. Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens

10. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: With more than 300 receiving yards the past two weeks, there are clearly no concerns here.

11. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: Topped 100 rushing yards against the 49ers a few weeks ago, and now he's meeting them at home.

12. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: Peyton Manning is going to be just fine.

13. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

14. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

15. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: I think he would have played more had Monday's game been closer. Tough matchup this week, though.

16. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants

17. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Assuming the Bears aren't up 28 in the first half, Ingram should get his touches.

18. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Well, that was quite the Monday night performance. Could have been better without the hip injury. I think he'll play this week.

19. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: No more Brandon Marshall, so expect better statistics. And they were already really strong.

20. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

21. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: We expected he'd struggle against the Rams. He shouldn't struggle against the Giants.

22. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos

23. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: Stop worrying about the other active Lions running backs! They don't matter!

24. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles: Perhaps not as valuable with Mark Sanchez at quarterback, but still a legit threat.

25. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

26. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: Hey, Johnny Football has a strong arm. He's going to be throwing and running.

27. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: Can't say it matters much to me that he "likes to snuggle," but good for him. Snuggle with the football twice in the end zone, OK?

28. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots: He saw 20 of the team's 23 rushes last week. Forget about Jonas Gray. Blount's the guy.

29. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets: Wonderful matchup this week, even if he shares the carries. If he scares you, because he hasn't topped six fantasy points since Week 8, I understand. But it's the Titans!

30. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Look, he's struggled statistically when Joe Haden covers him. It's a fact.

31. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers: Did fine in Week 1 with Derek Anderson at quarterback. Will do fine again.

32. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

33. Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants

34. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans: From 35 fantasy points to 4. Welcome to fantasy football.

35. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills

36. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints

37. Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons: Double-digits for fantasy in five of six games. Are your starting running backs doing this?

38. Golden Tate, WR, Lions: Has predictably slowed down since Calvin Johnson returned.

39. Daniel Herron, RB, Colts: The boom and bust backfield. Herron is boom.

40. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns

41. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Would not go into Julio Jones' spot should Jones sit. But White would move up 10 spots or so.

42. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles: Forget everything that happened to this offense in the Seattle loss. The Eagles can't beat elite teams. Dallas is not elite.

43. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: Remember, he's done quite well in his career against the Broncos.

44. Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders: At least the Raiders figured out their other running backs aren't any good.

45. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: If he goes another four years before his next 100-yard rushing game, that's a really big problem.

46. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

47. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins

48. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots: He has two 20-point games in his past five outings. But the next guy has been more consistent. I say use 'em both.

49. Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots

50. Kenny Stills, WR, Saints: Drew Brees will be more successful this week. It's the Bears.

51. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

52. Steve Smith, WR, Ravens

53. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: Yep, I'd prefer Hill in the Bengals' backfield.

54. Tre Mason, RB, Rams

55. Chris Johnson, RB, Jets: Could be his second 100-yard rushing game of the disappointing season. But one shouldn't expect it.

56. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins: No guarantee he plays this week, but his absence clearly affected the offense.

57. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

58. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: I'm worried aboutAndre Ellington for next season, and Bernard is similar. It's why teams are reluctant to give too many touches to players like this.

59. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins: Was finally heard from in Week 14.

60. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers

61. Terrance West, RB, Browns: Getting plenty of touches and isn't really the backup here. Of course, it's not about the running game this week.

62. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Odd season for him. Scored his most points in Week 14, but the two games in which he has touchdowns are his No. 3 and 4 games of the season. Bottom line is he's been disappointing.

63. Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears

64. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Yeah, enough is enough. And this is the highest-ranked 49er.

65. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

66. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts: Got sweet revenge in his return to Cleveland by rushing for 30 yards. Yawn.

67. Andre Williams, RB, Giants: Breakout performance or merely a result of facing the Titans? Giants fans probably don't want to know the answer.

68. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Would have been better had he just not suited up for the game at all.

69. Marques Colston, WR, Saints

70. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers

71. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts: Reggie Wayne has not been shut down for the season due to his injury, so be careful in overrating Moncrief's chance.

72. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots

73. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers

74. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

75. Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears: Figures to start and thrive with Marshall out, but he's no guarantee.

76. Eric Decker, WR, Jets: Value goes up assumingPercy Harvin sits, but then again, he's still No. 76. Didn't go up too much.

77. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins

78. Kerwynn Williams, RB, Cardinals: I'm not betting on a repeat performance against the Rams.

79. Delanie Walker, TE, Titans

80. Ben Tate, RB, Vikings: Someone has to run the ball, and the Vikings claim he'll get a chance.

81. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers

82. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

83. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos: His name seems way out of place in this spot, but are you really sure he'll play and see enough targets? Didn't you think that last week?

84. Toby Gerhart, RB, Jaguars: Nice season for him. From starter to the bench to only relevant again because Denard Robinson is done for the season. Don't invest. Jordan Todmanprobably gets a chance, too.

85. Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings

86. Nate Washington, WR, Titans

87. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers

88. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: It doesn't matter what round you drafted him in. It's not happening.

89. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans: Yeah, same with him. Still think he's the best rookie running back?

90. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals

91. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans

92. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks

93. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants

94. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles: A few months ago, everyone loved him. But he doesn't get rushing attempts or targets anymore.

95. Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings: Three touchdowns or bust. Take the bust side.

96. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers: Sure, blame it all on Colin Kaepernick if it makes you feel better.

97. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints

98. James Jones, WR, Raiders

99. Stepfan Taylor, RB, Cardinals

100. Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars

Others: Alfred Blue, RB, Texans; Larry Donnell, TE, Giants; Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs; Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens; Robert Woods, WR, Bills; James Starks, RB, Packers; Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs; Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens; Anthony Dixon, RB, Bills; Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars; Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos; Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers; Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets; Kenny Britt, WR, Rams
 

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[h=1]Playoff Hail Mary options[/h][h=3]Johnny Manziel, Donte Moncrief, Marquess Wilson could help the desperate[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

If you're reading the Blueprint this week, you're a) still alive in your fantasy playoffs; b) a connoisseur of incredibly witty writing; or c) a Google web-search spider attracted by potentially snobby big-word usage. I'll proceed under the assumption that explanation (a) is my largest demographic this week, but just in case: Welcome, spiders!
Here are some tape-review thoughts of three players available in many leagues, who could help you out if you're an underdog in your Week 15 tilt.
Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns
Obviously, I had to track back to Week 13 for Manziel's tape, and even then, his performance came in the fourth quarter when his team trailed 20-3. My observations:
• I've heard analysts say Manziel's performance was tainted because the Buffalo Bills didn't have all their defensive starters on the field. That's not what I see on tape. Jerry Hughes, Mario Williams, Preston Brown, Nigel Bradham, Brandon Spikes ... they're all out there from what I can see.
• That said, the Bills were very much playing back. They were in Cover-2 with safeties Aaron Williams and Da'Norris Searcy 15 yards off the line, and corners Stephon Gilmore and Corey Graham never venturing near bump territory.
• On Manziel's third play, he checked to a deep cross to Josh Gordon. I'm not giving the rookie QB huge marks for this; I can't know what he checked out of, and he wasn't facing anything exotic from the defense, but it worked. Manziel threw a bullet on time, and Gordon was wide open in the embrace of that deep zone. It was Johnny Football's best play.
• Manziel ran a naked bootleg and had Travis Benjamin wide open on a cross, and blew that throw. He had pressure from two defenders, and he did stop running before he threw, but he didn't get his feet into optimal position, not turning his body sufficiently and thus relying on his arm too much. This should've been a 30-yard gain.
• The 24-yard seam-route gain to Jim Dray was a classic bait, and should've been intercepted by Searcy. The safety let Manziel think he had Dray, just waiting for the kid to fall into his trap. Manziel fell for it. But he's got a wing, and Searcy misjudged the ball's velocity. That this was a completion is testament to Manziel having the kind of arm Brian Hoyer doesn't, but he's not going to make a living on decisions like this. Most times, that throw is a pick.
• The touchdown run wasn't a designed play; he gave his routes time to develop, then made a slick move to his left. A normal athlete gets tackled by Searcy before the end zone, but Manziel has exceptional acceleration as a runner, the kind defenders don't expect. This, obviously, represents Manziel's best shot at a big Week 15.
• He did fumble twice on that foolishly overturned call that should've led to a Bills defensive TD. But whatever.
We're talking 10 plays. It's not possible to glean much from 10 plays. He has a big arm. His chemistry with his receivers isn't a finished product. He can really run and doesn't seem jumpy in the pocket. His accuracy is a question mark. I was on record as saying the Browns have been foolish not to play Manziel sooner, mainly because Hoyer is a backup-quality player. Now that the Browns are unlikely to make the playoffs, they'll give Johnny Football his shot. It'll be fun. In a two-QB league, I would absolutely fire him up in my lineup. In standard leagues, I would have to be a pretty huge underdog with a bad depth chart to make that leap.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Moncrief's biggest impediment to helping you in a tight Week 15 spot is Reggie Wayne. When it seemed the Colts might be considering sitting Wayne down because of his triceps injury, Moncrief looked like a possible top-20 WR inAndrew Luck's offense. But Wayne has practiced this week and is expected to play Sunday against the Houston Texans. That probably leaves Moncrief in Hail Mary territory.
But who is this rookie out of Ole Miss? Too many analysts just look at his box scores and imagine what kind of player he is. I dug into each of his 36 targets (and his four rushes) so far this year. What Moncrief is is fast. Indy's strategy has been to get the ball in the rookie's hands with as little risk as possible, and let him make a play.
Often, he's caught passes as the third man out of a trips (three receivers) formation, allowing the other two receivers to bolt out straight while he delays and either runs a wide-open shallow cross or just putters in from the flat. He's also taken advantage of defenses understanding what kind of wheels he has, by running short stops that require some timing with Luck, but don't carry a ton of risk if that timing is off. And of course, he's also gotten some deep targets on straight-up fly patterns.
The Colts have only recently started varying Moncrief's game. It wasn't until Week 13 against Washington that I actually saw him targeted on a post pattern, and it wasn't until last week against the Browns I saw him targeted on a deep cross against tight man coverage. He caught that pass in Cleveland, an important drive-starter that helped set up T.Y. Hilton's game-winning score. (Don't get worked up over the fact that Moncrief scored two long TDs versus Washington. Each came on hellaciously blown coverage.) Trust is growing here, and that's a great thing for a kid with a 6-foot-2, 221-pound frame and his kind of jets. But the training wheels are most decidedly not off, nor is it a fait accompli that Moncrief can automatically become a polished enough route runner to be the flanker Indy will eventually need him to be.
That said, the early returns are promising. Moncrief makes a good potential complement for Hilton because he's fast enough to occasionally "take the top" off a defense and be physical enough to catch it in traffic, while Hilton has the open-field agility (and his own sick burners) to score from anywhere. In 2015, when Wayne is gone, this combo will rock. In Week 15, you can use Moncrief the same way you would a Martavis Bryant: hoping for a big play to pull you even in a fantasy playoff game where you feel you're an underdog.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears
Like Moncrief, Wilson wears uniform No. 10, and is also an intriguing flier for Week 15. In fact, I ranked these two WRs side-by-side at the tail end of my positional top 40. As an athlete, Wilson is a far cry from Moncrief, but because Brandon Marshall is out for the season, Wilson has the potential for more usage Monday night against the New Orleans Saints.
There's also not much regular-season tape for Wilson. He returned from a fractured collarbone only four games ago, and has 14 targets and only five catches. But of course, Marshall was also on the field during most of that action, so we can't punish Wilson for his lack of action. His strength is his height: He absolutely looks at home with the Bears' other behemoth pass-catchers, though his frame is slighter. Against the Dallas Cowboys last Thursday night, Wilson could've made two big plays on deep throws down the left side where a defensive back simply didn't give him proper credit for 4.5 wheels (again, not as fast as Moncrief, but still pretty awesome for a 6-foot-3 dude), but Jay Cutler missed the throws.

Wilson also had two drops on three targets in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so it'll be worth watching whether his hands are an issue. Even with Marshall out, I can't guarantee a passel of targets, though the logician in me says the Saints would be wise to send help Alshon Jeffery's way. Perhaps Josh Morgan gets involved to an annoying degree, but other things being equal, the opportunity for Wilson seems major. Outside of his straight-line speed, athletically he feels like "just another guy," but he does have size enough to score a red zone TD. His future is probably as a slot or complementary player, whereas Moncrief may turn out to be a star. This week, though, Wilson's potential workload gives him an outside shot at fantasy prominence.
 

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[h=1]Consistency Ratings: Week 15[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

[h=3]How Consistency Ratings work[/h]Using fantasy points determined by ESPN standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based on how consistently reliable they have been during the 2014 NFL season. For individual defensive players, the following scoring is used: solo tackle (1), assisted tackle (0.5), sack (3), interception (3), forced fumble (3), fumble recovery (3), touchdown (6), safety (2), pass defended (1). For Consistency Ratings from the 2012 to 2014 seasons combined, click here.
Here are explanations for some of the column headers and terminology used in the charts below:
CR: The player's Consistency Rating, which is calculated as his weekly standard deviation divided by his fantasy points per game average. This is meant to identify the players who were most consistently close to their weekly averages. The lower the number, the more consistent the player. Again, lower numbers are better.
Start%: The player's Start Percentage, which shows how often he earned your start in an ESPN standard league. This is his number of Starts -- defined below -- divided by his number of scheduled team games.
PPR: The player's Start Percentage using PPR scoring, which uses ESPN standard scoring settings but adds one point per reception.
FPTS/G: The player's average fantasy points scored per game.
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a Start, Stud or Stiff performance:
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"></center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">QB</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">RB</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">WR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">TE</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">K</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">D/ST</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">DL</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">LB</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">DB</center>
StartTop 10Top 25Top 25Top 10Top 10Top 10Top 20Top 20Top 20
StudTop 2Top 5Top 5Top 2Top 2Top 2Top 4Top 4Top 4
Stiff21st+51st+51st+21st+21st+21st+41st+41st+41st+

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged Stiff points for sitting out nor does it impact their Consistency Rating , but it hurts their Start Percentage.
Players must have at least a 20 percent Start Percentage in either standard scoring or PPR leagues for inclusion in the chart. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.
Quick click by position: Quarterbacks | Running backs | Wide receivers
Tight ends | Kickers | Team defense/special teams
Defensive linemen | Linebackers | Defensive backs

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Andrew LuckInd0.23992.3%92.3%23.712400
Drew BreesNO0.28753.8%53.8%18.87110
Carson PalmerAri0.30423.1%23.1%16.83017
Aaron RodgersGB0.32384.6%84.6%23.011320
Alex SmithKC0.34523.1%23.1%13.23040
Peyton ManningDen0.37076.9%76.9%21.110410
Ryan TannehillMia0.37730.8%30.8%16.24020
Jay CutlerChi0.37853.8%53.8%17.17230
Matt RyanAtl0.39923.1%23.1%17.43230
Tony RomoDal0.40438.5%38.5%16.35041
Russell WilsonSea0.41469.2%69.2%20.09230
Colin KaepernickSF0.46823.1%23.1%13.53060
Tom BradyNE0.47746.2%46.2%18.26140
Joe FlaccoBal0.49538.5%38.5%16.05130
Matthew StaffordDet0.50738.5%38.5%15.55150
Philip RiversSD0.51046.2%46.2%16.66040
Andy DaltonCin0.52823.1%23.1%14.03040
Nick FolesPhi0.52823.1%23.1%14.13035
Eli ManningNYG0.53330.8%30.8%15.04150
Cam NewtonCar0.55130.8%30.8%16.34221
Josh McCownTB0.55523.1%23.1%12.13035
Ben RoethlisbergerPit0.56238.5%38.5%19.55240
Ryan FitzpatrickHou0.57430.8%30.8%15.44132
Kirk CousinsWsh0.67223.1%23.1%14.33127

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</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
DeMarco MurrayDal0.281100.0%100.0%17.913800
Lamar MillerMia0.44676.9%76.9%9.510100
Arian FosterHou0.46969.2%76.9%18.99403
Fred JacksonBuf0.49853.8%53.8%7.87002
Matt ForteChi0.50476.9%92.3%15.410600
Ryan MathewsSD0.50730.8%30.8%9.04007
Justin ForsettBal0.51584.6%92.3%13.211200
Steven JacksonAtl0.55953.8%53.8%8.17000
Ahmad BradshawInd0.57253.8%61.5%10.87213
Jamaal CharlesKC0.57776.9%69.2%15.310521
Le'Veon BellPit0.58892.3%100.0%17.512500
LeSean McCoyPhi0.61469.2%69.2%9.79020
Eddie LacyGB0.62169.2%69.2%13.59410
Alfred MorrisWsh0.65061.5%53.8%10.58220
Mark IngramNO0.65053.8%53.8%12.27303
Marshawn LynchSea0.65676.9%76.9%15.510400
Trent RichardsonInd0.66630.8%38.5%6.44011
Andre EllingtonAri0.67061.5%76.9%10.28111
Bishop SankeyTen0.67115.4%23.1%4.62050
Jonathan StewartCar0.68538.5%38.5%8.15013
Chris IvoryNYJ0.69446.2%46.2%7.96010
Joique BellDet0.69853.8%61.5%10.37201
Rashad JenningsNYG0.72238.5%46.2%10.65214
Darren McFaddenOak0.73038.5%38.5%4.95030
Roy HeluWsh0.73830.8%38.5%5.24020
Giovani BernardCin0.75846.2%38.5%9.96223
C.J. SpillerBuf0.79423.1%23.1%6.13026
Benny CunninghamStL0.79530.8%38.5%4.84040
Ronnie HillmanDen0.81030.8%30.8%9.74116
Chris JohnsonNYJ0.81346.2%38.5%5.56040
Bobby RaineyTB0.81423.1%46.2%5.93031
Jerick McKinnonMin0.81746.2%38.5%5.56032
Terrance WestCle0.82038.5%30.8%6.35021
Darren SprolesPhi0.82638.5%38.5%7.85121
Jeremy HillCin0.82953.8%46.2%8.97220
Isaiah CrowellCle0.86453.8%53.8%7.37040
Shane VereenNE0.88038.5%53.8%6.85120
Tre MasonStL0.88253.8%30.8%10.37104
Frank GoreSF0.88346.2%38.5%7.16130
Andre WilliamsNYG0.89046.2%46.2%6.86040
Bernard PierceBal0.94823.1%0.0%3.93043
Alfred BlueHou0.96330.8%15.4%4.54050
Antone SmithAtl1.00638.5%30.8%6.05053
Ben TateMin1.02130.8%23.1%6.14133
Denard RobinsonJac1.04430.8%30.8%6.44230
Pierre ThomasNO1.05615.4%30.8%6.32124
C.J. AndersonDen1.13938.5%38.5%9.35451
Matt AsiataMin1.14830.8%30.8%7.94221
Theo RiddickDet1.21015.4%23.1%4.12052
LeGarrette BlountNE1.34223.1%23.1%4.6315-1
Juwan ThompsonDen1.35023.1%7.7%3.13060
Branden OliverSD1.37723.1%30.8%6.53142
Knile DavisKC1.41638.5%38.5%5.65270
Lorenzo TaliaferroBal1.42023.1%23.1%4.43060
Dan HerronInd1.57423.1%23.1%2.43080
Latavius MurrayOak2.23823.1%23.1%3.03191

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</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Mike WallaceMia0.40846.2%38.5%8.06020
Antonio BrownPit0.44784.6%92.3%15.511500
Roddy WhiteAtl0.50253.8%46.2%9.47022
Dez BryantDal0.52361.5%53.8%12.28300
Randall CobbGB0.52669.2%61.5%11.59310
Malcom FloydSD0.52930.8%23.1%7.74020
Alshon JefferyChi0.53261.5%61.5%10.68110
Odell Beckham Jr.NYG0.53353.8%61.5%13.07114
Emmanuel SandersDen0.55269.2%69.2%12.49110
Miles AustinCle0.55615.4%23.1%5.32041
Jordy NelsonGB0.57669.2%76.9%14.79420
Marques ColstonNO0.58423.1%15.4%6.33010
Greg JenningsMin0.59730.8%30.8%6.04040
Kelvin BenjaminCar0.60053.8%53.8%10.07220
Vincent JacksonTB0.60823.1%38.5%6.93030
Eric DeckerNYJ0.61130.8%38.5%6.74031
Andre JohnsonHou0.61923.1%23.1%5.63040
Golden TateDet0.62053.8%53.8%10.27320
T.Y. HiltonInd0.62769.2%69.2%12.89420
Allen RobinsonJac0.64623.1%15.4%6.53023
Martavis BryantPit0.66038.5%30.8%12.15126
A.J. GreenCin0.66661.5%61.5%12.28323
Anquan BoldinSF0.69438.5%38.5%8.35130
Rueben RandleNYG0.69423.1%38.5%5.13040
Julio JonesAtl0.69561.5%69.2%12.98300
Demaryius ThomasDen0.70976.9%76.9%14.110430
Jeremy MaclinPhi0.71761.5%61.5%12.58310
Mohamed SanuCin0.71746.2%46.2%8.56240
Andrew HawkinsCle0.71938.5%53.8%6.85041
Julian EdelmanNE0.72230.8%53.8%8.74150
Mike EvansTB0.73753.8%38.5%12.27231
James JonesOak0.75230.8%23.1%5.84070
DeSean JacksonWsh0.78146.2%46.2%9.86251
Michael CrabtreeSF0.79123.1%30.8%6.33040
Brandin CooksNO0.80123.1%38.5%8.03123
Torrey SmithBal0.81153.8%46.2%8.17050
Markus WheatonPit0.81323.1%15.4%4.83060
DeAndre HopkinsHou0.82253.8%53.8%10.57130
Brandon MarshallChi0.83038.5%38.5%8.75250
Brandon LaFellNE0.86046.2%46.2%8.56150
Steve SmithBal0.86153.8%53.8%9.07240
Calvin JohnsonDet0.86538.5%38.5%11.95323
Kendall WrightTen0.86930.8%30.8%7.54151
Jarvis LandryMia0.87323.1%23.1%5.83060
Reggie WayneInd0.89630.8%38.5%5.94061
Jordan MatthewsPhi0.89838.5%38.5%8.25250
Brian QuickStL0.90830.8%23.1%7.64136
Kenny StillsNO0.91030.8%23.1%7.04051
John BrownAri0.93723.1%23.1%6.33170
Percy HarvinNYJ0.95030.8%23.1%5.84052
Larry FitzgeraldAri0.95023.1%23.1%6.93152
Terrance WilliamsDal0.95123.1%15.4%6.13060
Justin HunterTen0.95123.1%15.4%5.13061
Doug BaldwinSea0.95523.1%23.1%5.73160
Eddie RoyalSD0.97323.1%30.8%6.73160
Michael FloydAri0.97830.8%30.8%5.84060
Keenan AllenSD0.98230.8%38.5%6.94150
Sammy WatkinsBuf0.99230.8%38.5%8.04370
Taylor GabrielCle1.00523.1%23.1%4.43070
Robert WoodsBuf1.07623.1%23.1%5.43070
Pierre GarconWsh1.07715.4%30.8%5.52170
Louis MurphyTB1.13323.1%23.1%4.63063
Chris HoganBuf1.14423.1%23.1%4.13080
Charles JohnsonMin1.19615.4%23.1%5.02064
Allen HurnsJac1.22623.1%23.1%6.63270
Andre HolmesOak1.26523.1%23.1%5.53180
Devin HesterAtl1.40423.1%15.4%3.83090

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</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Greg OlsenCar0.58761.5%76.9%8.98220
Rob GronkowskiNE0.60484.6%84.6%11.811310
Martellus BennettChi0.62253.8%53.8%8.77120
Travis KelceKC0.67153.8%46.2%6.37130
Dwayne AllenInd0.71253.8%46.2%6.87042
Jason WittenDal0.72030.8%46.2%5.24050
Julius ThomasDen0.81946.2%38.5%11.06433
Jimmy GrahamNO0.86153.8%53.8%8.87330
Delanie WalkerTen0.86538.5%30.8%7.35131
Charles ClayMia0.87615.4%30.8%4.32062
Coby FleenerInd0.91738.5%38.5%7.35240
Zach ErtzPhi0.92430.8%30.8%4.54060
Jermaine GreshamCin0.92615.4%30.8%3.82150
Owen DanielsBal0.94523.1%23.1%4.53051
Antonio GatesSD0.95253.8%46.2%8.57430
Heath MillerPit0.95638.5%30.8%5.55150
Scott ChandlerBuf0.97023.1%30.8%3.83070
Lance KendricksStL1.03623.1%7.7%3.03080
Anthony FasanoKC1.05223.1%15.4%3.53071
Jared CookStL1.06515.4%23.1%5.12160
Larry DonnellNYG1.08230.8%46.2%5.94140
Mychal RiveraOak1.18330.8%30.8%4.94280
Timothy WrightNE1.30530.8%23.1%4.44180

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</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Kickers[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Matt PraterDet0.27938.5%38.5%9.05005
Adam VinatieriInd0.33261.5%61.5%10.68200
Steven HauschkaSea0.34153.8%53.8%9.57110
Caleb SturgisMia0.35746.2%46.2%8.86020
Shaun SuishamPit0.42353.8%53.8%8.87220
Mason CrosbyGB0.44861.5%61.5%9.58120
Patrick MurrayTB0.44923.1%23.1%6.53030
Cody ParkeyPhi0.46969.2%69.2%10.29220
Dan BaileyDal0.47453.8%53.8%9.07230
Justin TuckerBal0.47561.5%61.5%9.38130
Graham GanoCar0.47630.8%30.8%7.54030
Dan CarpenterBuf0.49453.8%53.8%9.17230
Stephen GostkowskiNE0.50169.2%69.2%10.99420
Randy BullockHou0.50546.2%46.2%8.66040
Chandler CatanzaroAri0.52923.1%23.1%7.53040
Cairo SantosKC0.53230.8%30.8%6.54040
Shayne GrahamNO0.56538.5%38.5%7.25040
Nick NovakSD0.59338.5%38.5%7.85040
Billy CundiffCle0.59330.8%30.8%7.24040
Sebastian JanikowskiOak0.61023.1%23.1%5.53050
Blair WalshMin0.62630.8%30.8%7.64150
Matt BryantAtl0.62738.5%38.5%9.25420
Nick FolkNYJ0.63523.1%23.1%7.83320
Phil DawsonSF0.69830.8%30.8%8.04260
Mike NugentCin0.70138.5%38.5%6.85150
Kai ForbathWsh0.73738.5%38.5%6.65050
Greg ZuerleinStL0.81723.1%23.1%6.73160
Josh BrownNYG0.85838.5%38.5%6.95170

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</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Team defense/special teams[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Texans D/STHou0.62746.2%46.2%8.56120
Ravens D/STBal0.62738.5%38.5%7.25120
Bills D/STBuf0.66369.2%69.2%10.99220
Seahawks D/STSea0.66953.8%53.8%8.27030
Lions D/STDet0.70653.8%53.8%8.87220
Broncos D/STDen0.82530.8%30.8%6.64140
49ers D/STSF0.85946.2%46.2%7.46030
Browns D/STCle0.88146.2%46.2%7.86030
Cowboys D/STDal0.93130.8%30.8%4.54030
Cardinals D/STAri0.95146.2%46.2%8.56130
Eagles D/STPhi0.95953.8%53.8%10.97540
Steelers D/STPit0.96038.5%38.5%5.65020
Dolphins D/STMia0.99853.8%53.8%8.87230
Jets D/STNYJ1.01115.4%15.4%3.82050
Vikings D/STMin1.03238.5%38.5%8.75450
Patriots D/STNE1.03738.5%38.5%7.65140
Rams D/STStL1.04746.2%46.2%9.06320
Chiefs D/STKC1.14615.4%15.4%5.62260
Colts D/STInd1.29253.8%53.8%6.37140
Buccaneers D/STTB1.29723.1%23.1%4.93140
Chargers D/STSD1.35938.5%38.5%5.25050
Packers D/STGB1.40923.1%23.1%6.83240
Jaguars D/STJac1.50330.8%30.8%5.14130
Redskins D/STWsh1.68123.1%23.1%3.63060
Bears D/STChi1.72146.2%46.2%4.26040
Giants D/STNYG1.72723.1%23.1%4.83150
Titans D/STTen2.00215.4%15.4%2.92070
Bengals D/STCin2.03123.1%23.1%3.43040
Panthers D/STCar2.12230.8%30.8%3.84150
Raiders D/STOak2.16915.4%15.4%2.32060
Falcons D/STAtl3.07323.1%23.1%3.13160
Saints D/STNO4.50615.4%15.4%1.42070

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</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Defensive linemen[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Kyle WilliamsBuf0.40823.1%4.43071
Kroy BiermannAtl0.42830.8%5.04050
Aaron DonaldStL0.44723.1%4.53040
Carlos DunlapCin0.51046.2%5.66140
J.J. WattHou0.53184.6%10.811820
Rob NinkovichNE0.55730.8%6.04240
Cameron JordanNO0.58030.8%5.04080
Jason Pierre-PaulNYG0.62246.2%6.66140
Dontari PoeKC0.63030.8%4.04180
Mario WilliamsBuf0.64023.1%5.53140
Muhammad WilkersonNYJ0.64438.5%5.35142
Cameron HeywardPit0.64423.1%3.83070
Julius PeppersGB0.64746.2%6.76360
Clinton McDonaldTB0.65530.8%4.64042
Gerald McCoyTB0.66738.5%5.25151
Corey LiugetSD0.68030.8%4.74160
Ndamukong SuhDet0.68223.1%4.13080
Willie YoungChi0.70230.8%4.84140
Jurrell CaseyTen0.72230.8%4.94160
Fletcher CoxPhi0.72330.8%5.24160
Calais CampbellAri0.72438.5%6.65352
Olivier VernonMia0.73023.1%4.73040
Jerry HughesBuf0.74461.5%6.58150
Ezekiel AnsahDet0.77523.1%5.23260
Allen BaileyKC0.78723.1%3.63081
Haloti NgataBal0.79023.1%4.23171
Everson GriffenMin0.79846.2%7.06350
Sheldon RichardsonNYJ0.80946.2%5.76260
DeMarcus WareDen0.82146.2%5.56260
Alex OkaforAri0.82730.8%4.74053
Derrick MorganTen0.83023.1%4.53260
Cameron WakeMia0.83938.5%5.35160
Desmond BryantCle0.84623.1%4.03071
Chris ClemonsJac0.90538.5%5.05170
Robert QuinnStL0.91130.8%6.84470
Chandler JonesNE0.91223.1%7.33126
William HayesStL0.93530.8%3.84090
Michael BennettSea0.93723.1%3.63180
Charles JohnsonCar0.94938.5%4.55060
Vinny CurryPhi0.96430.8%4.04070
Marcell DareusBuf0.97138.5%5.55280
Letroy GuionGB1.03023.1%2.530100
Ryan DavisJac1.09730.8%3.04080

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</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Linebackers[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
DeAndre LevyDet0.27376.9%9.710110
Paul WorrilowAtl0.27946.2%8.26040
Bobby WagnerSea0.29423.1%8.13025
Justin DurantDal0.31023.1%9.33117
Luke KuechlyCar0.31861.5%10.18320
Lavonte DavidTB0.31861.5%10.58422
Josh MaugaKC0.34323.1%6.23080
Emmanuel LamurCin0.36423.1%6.83041
David HarrisNYJ0.37230.8%6.94070
Rolando McClainDal0.37723.1%7.33042
Keenan RobinsonWsh0.39338.5%7.85141
Thomas DavisCar0.40430.8%7.14051
Curtis LoftonNO0.40638.5%8.85220
James LaurinaitisStL0.41530.8%7.34060
Daryl SmithBal0.42338.5%7.65070
Nigel BradhamBuf0.43238.5%8.55132
C.J. MosleyBal0.43453.8%9.17350
K.J. WrightSea0.43623.1%7.23160
Paul PoslusznyJac0.44638.5%9.75226
Larry FooteAri0.45123.1%5.93070
Mychal KendricksPhi0.46238.5%8.65124
Brandon MarshallDen0.47146.2%9.06340
Chad GreenwayMin0.48723.1%7.83123
Lawrence TimmonsPit0.48938.5%7.25160
Jamie CollinsNE0.49253.8%8.87131
D'Qwell JacksonInd0.50546.2%9.16450
Demario DavisNYJ0.50830.8%7.14050
Karlos DansbyCle0.51323.1%6.93063
Preston BrownBuf0.51530.8%6.54060
Justin HoustonKC0.51946.2%8.76230
Sio MooreOak0.52230.8%8.34232
Von MillerDen0.56530.8%6.34060
Alec OgletreeStL0.56738.5%8.05270
Jameel McClainNYG0.56738.5%6.95060
Dont'a HightowerNE0.60530.8%7.44143
Vincent ReyCin0.62123.1%5.83090
Jelani JenkinsMia0.63438.5%7.85260
Ryan KerriganWsh0.66138.5%7.35260
Brian CushingHou0.69230.8%5.74072
Tamba HaliKC0.70423.1%5.53080
Anthony BarrMin0.72723.1%8.23261
Connor BarwinPhi0.78146.2%7.36260
Paul KrugerCle0.81423.1%5.93190
Elvis DumervilBal0.83138.5%6.55150
Danny LansanahTB0.86523.1%6.63170
Chris BorlandSF0.97046.2%7.86360
J.T. ThomasJac1.02323.1%5.33170
Anthony HitchensDal1.05023.1%4.23090

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[h=3]Defensive backs[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Tyvon BranchOak0.11723.1%9.830010
James IhedigboDet0.34530.8%8.44133
Charles WoodsonOak0.36838.5%8.05150
Prince AmukamaraNYG0.37423.1%7.63135
Harrison SmithMin0.38146.2%8.26130
Robert BlantonMin0.38123.1%6.83160
Barry ChurchDal0.39830.8%6.74090
Alterraun VernerTB0.40423.1%6.43062
Morgan BurnettGB0.40646.2%7.86041
Reshad JonesMia0.41438.5%8.55234
Buster SkrineCle0.42023.1%6.33080
T.J. McDonaldStL0.43123.1%6.53090
Eric WeddleSD0.43623.1%6.73080
Ron ParkerKC0.44223.1%7.23170
Rodney McLeodStL0.44723.1%5.73090
Johnathan JosephHou0.48930.8%7.24170
Bradley RobyDen0.49830.8%6.44070
Antoine BetheaSF0.50430.8%6.74280
T.J. WardDen0.50923.1%5.53080
Brent GrimesMia0.51430.8%6.54180
Reggie NelsonCin0.52423.1%6.43170
Donte WhitnerCle0.52923.1%6.33190
Corey WhiteNO0.53123.1%5.43080
Ryan MundyChi0.53330.8%6.94180
Mike AdamsInd0.54938.5%7.65160
Dawan LandryNYJ0.55030.8%5.74080
E.J. GainesStL0.55423.1%6.23070
Joe HadenCle0.55730.8%7.24170
Glover QuinDet0.56223.1%5.93060
Jason McCourtyTen0.57038.5%8.15170
George IlokaCin0.57023.1%5.43090
Tashaun GipsonCle0.57623.1%6.83162
Michael GriffinTen0.58246.2%7.96160
Rahim MooreDen0.65023.1%4.830100
Kemal IshmaelAtl0.65830.8%6.84170
Corey GrahamBuf0.67130.8%5.74080
Chris CulliverSF0.67823.1%5.33081
Rashad JohnsonAri0.69838.5%8.15260
Janoris JenkinsStL0.79823.1%6.33282
Trumaine McBrideNYG0.81523.1%6.03027
Kyle FullerChi0.84523.1%5.83190
Cortez AllenPit0.89723.1%5.33172
Quintin DempsNYG1.01323.1%4.23090

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</tbody>

 

hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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[h=1]Four Downs: A Tale of Three Rookies
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[/h]
By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider
The race for top rookie honors in fantasy football this season could come down to Sunday’s brightest statistical stars, as New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill dominated to the point they entered the Sunday night Philadelphia Eagles-Dallas Cowboys tilt not only topping the list of fantasy performers among first-year players, but leading everyone. And no, Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel is definitely not in the conversation for top rookie honors, though we’ll get to his starting debut later.


As for Beckham, ridiculously quick, tough and blessed with large hands, he was the latest to toy with the brutal Washington Redskins defense, hauling in 12 passes for 143 yards and three touchdowns for an NFL-leading 30 fantasy points. Since debuting in Week 5 -- he missed September with a hamstring injury -- he has outscored every wide receiver for fantasy scoring except the Denver Broncos’ Demaryius Thomas, which is quite an achievement. As great and consistent as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Antonio Brown and Green Bay Packers’ Jordy Nelson are, among others, Beckham has been better since he began playing at the beginning of October, becoming the first receiver since the New Orleans Saints’ Marques Colston in 2006 -- and only the third since 1960 -- to reach 100 standard fantasy points after nine games. Then in his 10th game he scored 30! Let’s call Beckham a clear top-10 wide receiver, safe regardless of matchup, and it’s going to be tough to keep him from next year’s top 10 as well.


Hill scored a few early touchdowns in the rout of Manziel’s Browns and ended up with 148 rushing yards on 25 carries, shredding the defense between the tackles. While smaller, faster colleague Giovani Bernard also achieved his best game in a while, the last time he actually outscored Hill for fantasy in a given week was Week 8, back in late October. In other words, Hill is the preferred fantasy option and has been for a while, yet even this week he was active in fewer than half of ESPN’s leagues. While it has been a historic season for rookie wide receivers, the running back class hasn’t been nearly as helpful for fantasy, adding to Hill’s importance among a scarce group. Hill isn’t a fantastic option next week against the Denver Broncos, but he’s about as safe a rookie runner there is, and a wise investment. Anyone still relying on the Tennessee Titans’ Bishop Sankey? Didn’t think so.


For now, I’ll say Beckham is the leading choice for top rookie honors -- real life and fantasy -- and Hill is second, a tad ahead of Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans, who scored his 11th touchdown in the 19-17 loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. On the other side of the field was Kelvin Benjamin, registering the third 100-yard receiving day of his awesome season. Buffalo Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins leads St. Louis Rams running back Tre Mason -- neither did much in Week 15 -- for my No. 5 spot among rookies. But hey, most seasons we can’t even pretend to find five legitimate rookies for consideration for this honor or for must-start fantasy status. It has been an amazing season.

Second down: Of course, it hasn’t been so amazing for first-year quarterbacks, and Manziel reminded everyone there’s a different learning curve for this position. For all the bluster this week about Manziel finally getting opportunity over Brian Hoyer, he scored the same number of fantasy points (zero) as you and I and the benched Hoyer, and for most of the game he was costing points to the 13.3 percent of ESPN owners that dared activate him. It’s the fantasy playoffs and you’re starting a rookie quarterback in his first game? Manziel figures to start Week 16 against the Panthers as well, and who knows, perhaps he’ll score a point or two or 12, but the problem here is that he looked so overmatched in the 30-0 loss -- Cleveland’s first shutout since 2009 -- that no Browns were able to thrive. Manziel didn’t do damage with his legs, either. Nobody did. Wide receiver Josh Gordon led the team with four fantasy points and running back Isaiah Crowell scored two points. Awful. We’d hate to sit the magnificent Gordon next week, especially knowing how bad the Panthers’ secondary can be, but it’s tough to view him as a top-20 wide receiver unless Manziel improves quickly.
Third down: Panthers quarterback Cam Newton missed the game after his frightening car accident earlier in the week, and his status for the rest of December remains problematic. Veteran backup Derek Anderson, pretty competent for the Browns way back in 2007 and in his second start of this season, was able to keep the top Panthers options relevant. Benjamin caught 104 yards worth of passes. Tight end Greg Olsen also topped 100 receiving yards for the third time, tying his season-best with 10 receptions. Running back Jonathan Stewart continued his effective play with 79 total yards, though a fumble downgraded his seven-point fantasy game to five. Regardless, the last time Stewart rushed for 70 or more yards in three consecutive games was late in 2010, when he was productive and healthy. The first-place Panthers -- hey, it’s true, even at 5-8-1 -- have friendly matchups against the Browns and Atlanta Falcons the next two weeks. If Newton can play, he’ll warrant top-10 consideration. Anderson is a bit too risky to trust, despite his 16 fantasy points Sunday, but he certainly didn’t cost Benjamin, a WR2, and Olsen, a top-five tight end overall, points. Somewhat shockingly, Stewart appears to be a reasonable RB2 for deeper formats.

Fourth down: One of the reasons I like the two-week semifinals and championship round in ESPN leagues is because those owning top stars that didn’t produce don’t automatically lose. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was held to a season-worst five fantasy points in a 21-13 loss to the defensively proficient Buffalo Bills, who have held Rodgers and Denver Broncos great Peyton Manning to a total of seven fantasy points the past two weeks. Rodgers would have done considerably better had a wide-open Nelson just caught the football on what would have been a 95-yard touchdown. Instead, Nelson scored five points as well. Last week, in the first round of the two-week semis, Rodgers and Nelson accounted for 27 and 26 points, respectively. Please don’t overthink things and sit Rodgers, Nelson, Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy at the 2-12 Buccaneers in Week 16. Other top stars that frustrated fantasy owners with their unfortunate timing for a statistical dud Sunday included Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (five points, while backup Knile Davis scored 20), Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (five points), Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green (five points) and Broncos tight end Julius Thomas (three points). Charles remains hampered by a sore knee, making Davis a must-handcuff. Hilton and Green should be fine. Thomas finally played after a month of scoreless outings due to a sprained ankle, but caught only one pass. He’s not an automatic play moving forward.


 

hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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[h=1]Six lessons from 2014 fantasy season[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Boy, fantasy football can be annoying, can't it?
We can talk pretty all spring and summer about players in favorable situations and players who look great on tape, but in large part whether or not you win comes down to whether the fickle finger of fate decides your guys will stay healthy. When your squad runs through a full season avoiding carnage, you're in great shape. But so many guys get hurt, and so unpredictably, that a majority of fantasy teams get left panting on the roadside.
Predicting injuries is a tough game to play, though. Rob Gronkowski was persona non grata in drafts this summer because it seemed so likely he'd miss time. In fact, he was just about the only tight end who didn't get hurt, and now he stands far above his positional brethren. DeMarco Murray had missed nine of his first 32 NFL games and was considered untrustworthy for fantasy purposes, and right now he's the Fantasy MVP. Oft-injured Arian Foster has missed three games this season, but he's still been a top-five fantasy player in VBD terms. Meanwhile, Larry Fitzgeraldhadn't missed a game since 2007, and missed two this season. A.J. Green had been inactive for one game in his career, and has missed almost four full contests this year. Victor Cruz, Stevan Ridley and Brandon Marshall had all averaged fewer than a game missed per season, and all suffered season-ending injuries. Perhaps one lesson of 2014 is: Don't let past injuries -- or lack thereof -- be the primary factor in player evaluations.
Of course, that doesn't mean injury history should be no factor in our evaluations! How can I ever look Doug Martin in the face again? For me, Martin joins the ranks of Ryan Mathews, Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller in the Darren McFadden Division of RBs I just don't trust. (Of course, Murray might've been in this group last year!) Julio Jones could be trending in that direction, after two straight seasons of incredible promise have possibly been wrecked by injury, with this year's coming at a very bad time in the fantasy season. Could Jimmy Graham be one of those guys?
It's a funny game we play, subject to variables that sometimes just don't have answers. That's not a satisfying answer to the question "How do I build a winning fantasy team?" but it's the truth. Here are five other potential lessons from '14:

Love the player, not just the situation: On its face, the case ofMontee Ball could be perceived as another injury-ruined season, but of course, Ball didn't produce happy fantasy owners even before he hurt his groin. Let's not call his September a total failure: His tape against the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs was fine, and not many RBs lay down great tape against the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. But he certainly wasn't transcendent.

Maybe the danger with Ball was becoming too enamored with the player's role, at the expense of deciding whether or not we actually liked the player. As C.J. Anderson has proven, there were big fantasy points waiting for a Broncos RB. Of course, nobody can prove Ball wouldn't have benefited as the schedule eased up, and the running game found its rhythm in the season's second half. After all, didn't Eddie Lacy start slow against a brutal schedule, and pick it up later? Still, Anderson did immediately look like the player we expected Ball to be. Lesson: It can be difficult to differentiate a player's situation from his talent. Certainly, stats are terrible diviners of this. Watch lots of film to make sure we actually like a player's ability and not just his potential role.
Sometimes it's just a bad year for rookie RBs: Fortunately, you didn't have to break the bank to draft Bishop Sankey. But you did have to waste a roster spot on him for a good long while, until it became obvious that no Titans RB would overcome the magnitude of awfulness emanating from Nashville. This rookie obviously failed to make a good impression on Ken Whisenhunt, and rode pine behind Shonn Greene for far too long. By the time Sankey took control of Tennessee's backfield, the offensive line was in shambles and the QB carousel had revolved three times.

But that's not a good enough excuse for Sankey. He did some OK things on tape, but not enough. So far he hasn't looked like the explosive athlete his boosters believed he'd be. He's got some speed, but he doesn't make anyone miss. As the season progressed, I felt like he showed more power, and he does have enough thickness to him to take a hit, but there hasn't seemed to be anything particularly special about him. That could change. The kid's been in the league for 10 minutes. Put him behind the Dallas Cowboys' O-line and he'd be probably be terrific. But it hasn't been a good start for a player who was the first RB selected in May's draft, and in fact the only rookie RB who looks on pace to provide a top-60 VBD season is Jeremy Hill, whose opportunity on the depth chart looked muddled back in May. Lesson: Let's not lose our minds simply because an RB was drafted high and landed on what looks like a thin depth chart.

Father Time is undefeated: This year's crop of age-30-and-beyond RBs -- Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Fred Jackson andDeAngelo Williams -- have been, shall we say, difficult to trust. Steven Jackson has actually proven to be a fifth-round investment in VBD terms (as opposed to his eighth-round ADP), but nevertheless hasn't been reassuring to put in your lineup every week. And the other three guys have busted pretty hard, and they're not the only ones.

Chris Johnson (who'll be 30 next September), Maurice Jones-Drew (turns 30 in March) and Reggie Bush (ditto) all have shown obvious signs of slowing down. And yet every summer, we try to convince ourselves that some of our past favorites will be immune to aging. Hey, yes, exceptions do happen: Justin Forsett turned 29 in October and has been a revelation (though obviously he doesn't have as much wear and tear on him). But the overall pattern here is undeniable. Lesson:Running back is a young man's position. And there's a group of big names getting near the cliff.Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster and Rashad Jennings will all be 29 before the '15 season begins. And Adrian Peterson will be 30.
Small bell cows get slaughtered: I was high on Andre Ellington this year, and thought he was a steal at the end of the fifth round of standard ESPN drafts. For a while, that proved correct. The Cardinals lost possible platoon back Jonathan Dwyer to domestic abuse in September, and Ellington settled in as the lead back in a dynamic offense.
Unfortunately, once Carson Palmer got hurt, opposing defenses no longer feared the Arizona passing attack, and this exposed the run blockers as merely average. Ellington ran to contact more frequently, and the big plays dried up. This exposed him as a player who's on the borderline of being too small to be an NFL feature back. Now, as I expressed at length in the introduction of this column, I don't believe you can definitively predict injuries based on an RB's size. The big guys get hurt, too. But when you give a player like Ellington -- who's listed at 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds -- a workload that consists of 15-plus carries and 20-plus touches every week, bad things may happen, and eventually they did happen for Ellington. He's out for the year with a sports hernia. Denard Robinson got hurt. Ronnie Hillman got hurt. Antone Smith got hurt. I give Justin Forsett credit, because he's a little guy, and he's taken a huge workload well and is still ticking. Plus, all the smaller RBs I've mentioned were quite productive for a time, and nobody says you have to be married to these guys for the entire season. If they get hurt, you replace them. But be prepared to do so. Lesson: Bell-cow RBs are scarcer than ever, so when an NFL team decides a smaller guy is their bell cow, we should feel free to invest, but we should also have backup plans.
Little dudes can play on the outside: Let's end on a positive note. Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, T.Y. Hilton and Odell Beckham Jr. all fit the mold of a traditional slot receiver, yet they all thrived in '14 playing outside. Each of these WRs ran at least 60 percent of their routes from the outside -- in the case of Brown and Beckham, that number is more like 80 percent -- and through 14 games they each have reached at least 790 yards receiving and five TDs on balls thrown to them when they lined up outside.

This is fairly stunning. Over the past 10 years, Steve Smith and Santonio Holmes were the only WRs under 6-foot who amassed 1,000 yards receiving in a season on passes thrown to them while they were lined up on the outside, but Brown, Sanders, Hilton and Beckham all have a chance to do it in '14. (Brown has already reached that mark.) This is change you can believe in. For a big outside WR, a double-team hasn't typically been a problem because he could simply outleap everyone. But as offenses get more spread out and defenses have to adjust, smaller guys with extraordinary quickness have found that if they get off the line without being bumped, there's often less safety help, and thus less need to beat multiple defenders through sheer size.Lesson: The WR lines are blurring. It's no longer a certainty that smaller receivers will play only inside, where big plays are less plentiful. We have to be open to the idea that small but extraordinarily quick players can become true fantasy superstars playing on the outside.
 

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[h=1]Week 16 flex rankings
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[/h]By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider


Well, the fantasy football season is nearly over, but don't say that to those still playing for something. It's all about what's ahead, and hopefully the players you choose for your flex position can contribute positively. Several of the players on the most championship-round rosters in ESPN leagues have been among the most productive players of late, and you'll find those names near the top of the rankings. Then again, some of the recent strugglers, such as a certain Chicago Bears running back and Denver Broncos wide receiver, also remain in high regard. Regardless, here are the latest flex rankings, combining the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one group.
And as always, best of luck to all in Week 16 and beyond, and happy holidays!


1. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: He's only three points behind the top spot for non-quarterbacks in standard scoring this season, and Bell didn't have surgery for a broken hand this week.


2. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: Remember back in September when so many wanted to flat-out cut the guy? Double digits in fantasy scoring 10 of 11 contests since then.


3. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Had an eight-game streak of scoring in double digits broken in a tasty matchup against Oakland last week, but don't sit him now. This is another fine matchup.


4. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: I actually think he will play and won't be hampered much from the injury, but please make sure Sunday afternoon the team has him active.


5. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Skewered the Bears the last time, and really ought to do so again. Not much is in the way.


6. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Not the easiest matchup and it would help to have an actual NFL quarterback handing off to him, but still an elite option.


7. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: Surprise! And really, he's having a terrific season. The reason for his bump here is, well, it's the Bears.


8. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: His quarterback isn't doing so much lately, but Thomas had 18 fantasy points last week.


9. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: Probably the most reliable, consistent player in all of fantasy football, quarterbacks included. That counts for a lot.


10. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks


11. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: Man, imagine if he just catches that 94-yarder, so much would have been different! Maybe this week!


12. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys


13. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Yes, he didn't have much success the last game versus Detroit, but I'm treating him as an elite player, because he is. Is more than capable of making a big play or two regardless of the team's quarterback play.


14. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos


15. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals


16. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: He's likely going to rush for 1,000 yards this season. Admit it, that would have shocked you back in August!


17. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Contingent on him playing, of course, but his team really does need him. And he's really, really good.

18. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants: He's good, too. Matchups don't matter. Don't overthink it. No wide receiver is on more ESPN finalists than this fellow.


19. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: The disappointment continues, now we can't be sure he gets the goal-line looks.


20. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles


21. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers: Five-game drought since last touchdown, but nice matchup.


22. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins


23. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: The Cowboys can be thrown on. This team has become reliant on Hilton, too.


24. Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens


25. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers: Also doesn't matter which cornerback covers him. Or, as we saw Sunday, which quarterback throws to him.


26. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: Kittens!


27. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins


28. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: Rookie could end up leading the league in touchdowns.


29. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: Rookie is ninth among all running backs in standard scoring. Wow!


30. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots


31. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos: If the statistical trend continues, he'll score only four points this week. I don't think the trend continues.


32. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills


33. Tre Mason, RB, Rams


34. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins: He might not admit it, but you know he wants to score a touchdown against his former team and keep them from playing in January. Actually, he will admit it.


35. Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots


36. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Don't worry about Julio Jones in White's case. He'll be OK regardless.


37. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: As long as some of the footballs Jay … um, I mean, Jimmy Clausen launches are in his general direction, he can produce enough numbers.


38. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: This is his best three-game run of stats since 2010. It'd be surprising if the return of DeAngelo Williams messes that up. Stewart, on the other hand, can mess it up.


39. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans


40. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins: Coming off his best game of the season, though the Vikings do nice work against the pass.


41. Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons


42. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills


43. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: We can all blame the team's excellent quarterback play, but some of this is clearly on Gordon, too.


44. Daniel Herron, RB, Colts


45. Golden Tate, WR, Lions: It's the Bears, so Tate and Megatron can each thrive.

46. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: We keep ranking him well, but he's not putting up the numbers. He's a good tight end, but at flex, you can do better.


47. Steve Smith, WR, Ravens


48. Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders: I like him, but on this team, with that O-line, it's tough for him to reach his potential.


49. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: I'd call this a good rank for him. Imagine that back in August.


50. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans


51. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers


52. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers: Gronk is the only tight end with more fantasy points this season. This guy is good.


53. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: He and Andre Ellington will end up overdrafted in 2015. Sorry, but that's the likely scenario based on how their teams will use them.


54. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens


55. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers: So Jay Cutler, the No. 9 fantasy QB, loses his job, but Colin Kaepernick, the No. 18 QB, gets to keep flailing away. This week he gets Boldin back on track, though. Kind of.


56. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: He's probably too injured to really help anyone at this point, even if he's suited up.


57. Marques Colston, WR, Saints


58. Toby Gerhart, RB, Jaguars: He's starting again, though it might be a bit tough to tell statistically.


59. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles


60. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots: Bill Belichick giveth, and taketh away.


61. Andre Williams, RB, Giants: Should be in line for volume touches, but it's not a pleasant matchup.


62. Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings


63. Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons: This rank assumes Julio Jones plays. If he does not, move Harry up 25 spots or so.


64. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets


65. Kerwynn Williams, RB, Cardinals


66. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers


67. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: Looked a lot more special a month ago.


68. Terrance West, RB, Browns: Has never really looked special.


69. Kenny Stills, WR, Saints: He should be doing more. I want to rank him better.

70. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers: No more Keenan Allen, but it's dangerous to rely on Floyd.


71. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers: This is assuming Frank Gore doesn't play, but hedging because Hyde could sit with injury, too. If he does, I'd put Alfonso Smith here.


72. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers


73. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos: Not the second half of the season people expected.


74. Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings: Here comes the three-touchdown game!


75. Eric Decker, WR, Jets: Comes off his fifth double-digit fantasy effort. Hey, nobody thought he'd be great.


76. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins


77. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints


78. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: Honestly, who cares what this team's wide receivers are doing? The team could make the playoffs. That seems to matter more. And Kelce is good.


79. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Should be just fine with 70-year-old Jim Hart at QB. (Look him up.)


80. Shonn Greene, RB, Titans: It's his job again. Nice work by the Titans this season!


81. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins


82. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks


83. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots


84. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts


85. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans


86. Nate Washington, WR, Titans: Sneaky pickup for this week.


87. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys


88. Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs: We keep talking about Hyde and Christine Michael as dynasty stashes, but imagine if Davis had a line on a starting job. Wow.


89. Stedman Bailey, WR, Rams


90. Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys: Murray should play. If he doesn't, I'd rank Randle near where Doug Martin is.


91. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: A little too hurt to put up numbers, but it's tough to rely on Donte Moncrief.


92. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions


93. James Jones, WR, Raiders


94. Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers


95. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles


96. James Starks, RB, Packers


97. Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars


98. Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears


99. Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys


100. Stepfan Taylor, RB, Cardinals


Others: Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots; Davante Adams, WR, Packers; Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs; Delanie Walker, TE, Titans; Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears; Robert Woods, WR, Bills; C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills; Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers; Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers; Chris Johnson, RB, Jets; Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens; Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers
 

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