Fantasy Football News 2014/15

HacheMan · Aug 12, 2014

[h=1]Flag-planted players for 2014[/h][h=3]Andre Ellington, Montee Ball, Rueben Randle have great draft-day value[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Ten names.
I have 10 chances to find greatness. Ten NFL skill-position players who will outperform current expectations. Ten men who will deliver the greatest draft-day value.
Welcome to my annual "Planting My Flag" column. Rather than succumb to the understandable temptation to rattle off a list of dozens of players with potential upside, and then point to that monstrous list as evidence of my sagacity, I get only 10 cracks at it. This column dates back to a radio interview I did seven years ago, when the host asked me to name a couple of favorite sleepers. I gave him about 20, and realized I had a problem.

So every year (in this column, anyway) discipline is my watchword. I'm allowed just 10 names. I'm not saying these guys will be the best at their respective positions. I just love their value relative to where they're being drafted in ESPN leagues. (I realize that other sites have different ranks, which might make these players look somewhat less tasty. ESPN is my home, so it's ESPN numbers I'll use.)
Here we go:
Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
Current ESPN ADP: 26th overall. My rank: 12th overall.
Ball's appendectomy may give you a buying opportunity. I'm just not worried about it. It's fair to wonder whether Ball's pass blocking has progressed to a point where he's trustworthy in front of Peyton Manning, but with Knowshon Moreno gone, Ball is going to get a ton of chances to prove himself. Yes, the AFC West has to face the rough-and-tumble defenses of the NFC West, which could cause Denver's offense to appear slower than the 2013 edition. But they'll still play fast and move the ball, and the Broncos' lead back should be a top-10 fantasy RB. Period. Rating: 4 Flags (out of 5).
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Current ESPN ADP: 55th overall. My rank: 36th overall.
The objection to Crabtree as a must-start fantasy option hinges on the Niners' offense. The team had the fewest pass attempts in the NFL last year, and the second-highest run/pass ratio (behind only the Seattle Seahawks). Does that make the margin of error for players like Crabtree and Percy Harvin smaller? It does. Does it scare me off them? It doesn't. I don't even bother looking at Crabtree's '13 film, because he was still recovering from a torn Achilles. When I go back and look at '12, I see a super-elite route-runner, one of the best in the game. Crabtree isn't going to pop the top off a defense, but he's open all the time. I'm willing to take a chance that the 49ers will run a more diverse playbook with Colin Kaepernick this year, and that Crabtree will benefit more than anyone. Rating: 3.5 Flags (out of 5).

Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Current ESPN ADP: 52nd overall. My rank: 31st overall.
I think Ellington is the first player to graduate from my "Super-Deep Sleeper" list to my Flag list in one season. I absolutely do not believe Bruce Arians when he says he's going to give Ellington 20-plus touches per game; it sounds like Stepfan Taylor is in line for short-yardage work overJonathan Dwyer, which could wind up limiting Ellington's TD total. But so what? Isn't that the same thing we expect from Giovani Bernard? In fact, Ellington and Bernard are strikingly similar players, yet Bernard is going 23 picks earlier in ESPN leagues. Each guy carries enough usage risk to keep them out of the RB top 10, but each is talented enough to dominate in a given week. Rating: 4.5 Flags (out of 5).
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Current ESPN ADP: 154th overall. My rank: 119th overall.
From Weeks 1 to 8 last year, Chip Kelly's offense used two-TE formations about 16 percent of the time, but Ertz improved late in the year and from Week 9 forward, that number jumped to 39 percent. Brent Celek proved he's ready to be a prime blocking TE, while Ertz scored five TDs in his final nine games, including the playoffs, and looks like a beastly red zone threat. He's my No. 12 TE, which puts him in the middle class at the position. He's a lovely high-upside target if you choose to wait at TE. Rating: 3.5 Flags (out of 5).
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Current ESPN ADP: 171st overall. My rank: 134th overall.
Consider this a vote against Steven Jackson. Coming off a season ruined by a right hamstring injury, Jackson pulled his left hammy early in camp and may miss the entire preseason. I know the Falcons have expressed reservations about Freeman in pass protection lately, but he came into the league with a reputation for being solid in that department, so I'm hoping the rookie will prove himself soon. And yes, Jacquizz Rodgersand Antone Smith played ahead of him Week 1 of the preseason, but please don't tell me you're ready to be fooled by either of those guys again. Freeman probably isn't a future true feature back, but he's a nice sleeper in all leagues, and not just a handcuff to Jackson.Rating: 2.5 Flags (out of 5).

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Current ESPN ADP: 65th overall. My rank: 44th overall.
Hilton has a lot of DeSean Jackson in him, which is why I ranked Hilton just three WR spots behind Jackson. Are these guys you feel great about as stable week-to-week producers? Probably not. But they're super-elite playmakers who'll go bananas five or six times per season. Match them with a steady No. 1 wideout, and you're onto something. Hilton is little dude who because of his speed is just unmanageable when he gets a defender's hands off of him. The Colts want to run, but Andrew Luck is continuing to develop toward greatness. He's going to use his best weapon. Rating: 3.5 Flags (out of 5).

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
Current ESPN ADP: 110th overall. My rank: 55th overall.
I admit I didn't love Miller's tape in '13. He's a sprinter who never seems to break anything big, with only four of 177 carries going for 20-plus yards. But part of the problem was now-departed coordinator Mike Sherman's dreadful calls, and part was that decimated Dolphins line. Mostly this flag pick is a contention that Miller should be drafted as if he's a starting NFL RB, because I think he is. Knowshon Moreno was awesome last season, but he's already coming off a knee scope, adding to his litany of lower-leg issues. If there's risk of a committee here, I think it's a relatively small one. Miller is no LeSean McCoy, but new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will seek to get him in space like he did Shady. At the very least, I expect Miller to double his career-high of 26 catches. Rating: 3 Flags (out of 5).
Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants
Current ESPN ADP: 167th overall. My rank: 108th overall.
Speaking of new offensive systems, the Giants are going West Coast. Eli Manning won't be asked to stand in overlong and get pummeled in exchange for deep shots; rather, we're going to see more quick hitters and timing plays that emphasize chemistry. To be honest, it's possible that that bodes poorly for Randle, who made many mental mistakes in '13. But what excites me here is that Randle possesses something the Giants' other WRs don't: size. And there's also no reliable TE on this roster. That should lead to red zone work. Randle may not eclipse 1,000 yards, but it would be no shock to see him threaten double-digit TDs. Rating: 4 Flags (out of 5).
Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee Titans
Current ESPN ADP: 79th overall. My rank: 53rd overall.
I'll admit this is a player on whom our ADP just seems way out of whack. On most other sites, the presumptive top rookie rusher is rated as a borderline top-50 entity. But if you're playing in an ESPN league and using ESPN ranks, there's value here. My hesitation ranking Sankey this spring was the thought that surely the Titans would go out and get someone other than Shonn Greene. And they got ... Dexter McCluster? In other words: I'm not exactly sure what Sankey is, but I know all his alternatives can't make it as big offensive pieces. Sankey is an explosive athlete who at least in theory should do everything better than Greene, save perhaps pass blocking. Do I buy Sankey as a must-start in 10-team leagues? Not quite. But you can get him as a fourth/fifth-rounder to supplement your superstars. You don't necessarily need him to be one. Rating: 3 Flags (out of 5).

Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ESPN ADP: 191st overall. My rank: 130th overall.
It's easy to forget the flavor of last year. Before there was Brandin Cooks coming out of Oregon State, there was Wheaton. He might not quite have Cooks' straight-ahead jets, but he's just about as quick. The Steelers will go Smurf outside, starting WRs who are borderline unchuckable at the line, and use Todd Haley's quick-hitting offense to get Wheaton and Antonio Brown in space. With the Steelers in '13, Emmanuel Sanders andJerricho Cotchery combined for 113 catches, 1,342 yards and 16 TDs, and now they're gone. Wheaton won't replace that production all by himself, but Pittsburgh believes he'll be the biggest replacement piece. I do, too. Rating: 2.5 Flags (out of 5).

HacheMan · Aug 12, 2014

[h=1]Don't worry about Cam Newton[/h][h=3]Panthers QB still has much upside despite offseason surgery, revamped WR corps[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

In his three NFL seasons, Cam Newton has finished as the No. 4, No. 4 and No. 3 quarterback in fantasy. But it's fair to argue that he's never had a receiving corps as unproven as he'll have in 2014.
Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn are gone. Rookie Kelvin Benjamin and journeymen Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant will replace them. Entering last year, Newton's top three wide receivers had a combined 1,051 pro catches. This year, that number will be 734. Cotchery and Avant each ran more than three-quarters of their routes out of the slot last season, and would thus seem to represent a duplication of effort. And Benjamin has potential, but his hands and play-to-play savvy were real question marks coming out of college.

Let me add into the mix the fact the Carolina Panthers' offensive line looks worse without retired Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton on the left side -- which will require a sometimes-shaky Byron Bell to move to Newton's blind side -- and with rookie Trai Turnerstarting at right guard. And finally, Newton had ankle surgery this winter.
So how worried should we be about his fantasy stock in '14? My answer is: not very.
First, let's dispense with the surgery concerns: Everything I've read (including this article from ESPN's own Stephania Bell) indicates, if anything, that Newton's mobility should be improved after this operation. As for the offensive line, the losses of Gross and Wharton absolutely are significant. I don't feel good about any Panthers RB. But Newton's strength doesn't come from pocket passing. I have a hard time getting worked up about the notion of him being under more pressure.
Why? For the reason I'm not going crazy about Newton's lack of WR weapons. Simply put: This is a quarterback whose primary value doesn't come from his arm.
Last year, Panthers WRs amassed the 26th-most receptions among all WR corps, and the 28th-most receiving yards. Steve Smith was a shell of himself, and LaFell was awful. Folks, Newton has never finished higher than 10th in passing yards or 11th in passing TDs in a single season, and he's been a top-four fantasy QB three years running.
That's the key word: running. We all know this, but maybe we're afraid to say it. All Newton has to be is passable as a passer, and he'll make his fantasy bones with his legs. Here are fantasy's cumulative top 10 QBs over the past three seasons, and the percentage of their fantasy points that comes from running:

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points	Points from Rushing	Percentage
1	Drew Brees	1065	44	4.1%
2	Cam Newton	943	371	39.3%
3	Tom Brady	922	58	6.3%
4	Aaron Rodgers	876	94	10.7%
5	Matthew Stafford	863	69	8.0%
6	Matt Ryan	790	43	5.4%
7	Tony Romo	789	25	3.2%
8	Philip Rivers	722	21	2.9%
9	Andy Dalton	711	88	12.4%
10	Peyton Manning	710	6	0.8%

And for frame of reference, here are some other running QBs, and how they fare by the same metric:

Player	Fantasy Points	Points from Rushing	Percentage
Colin Kaepernick	418	148	35.4%
Robert Griffin III	503	172	34.2%
Michael Vick	459	147	32.0%
Russell Wilson	515	133	25.8%
Andrew Luck	543	117	21.5%
Alex Smith	554	92	16.6%

From '11 to '13, no other QB has rushed for double-digit TDs. Newton has rushed for 28. In that same span, no other QB has eclipsed 1,304 yards rushing. Newton has 2,032. And unlike a couple of the more brittle players on the list of running QBs, Newton has never missed a game.
Do I think the Panthers are going to duplicate their 12-4 record from last year, and win the NFC South? I don't. As a whole, the offense seems primed to take a step back, and the defense might've lost a bit of its edge given the departure of half of last year's starting secondary and Greg Hardy's possible disciplinary issue. But Greg Olsen is still around to play security blanket for Newton, and the departure of Smith/LaFell hurts a lot more in name recognition than on the field.
But the larger point (literally) is: Newton is a 6-foot-5, 245-pound monster who earns his fantasy pedigree on the ground. I can't see any reason that won't continue in '14 and beyond. His ceiling is as high as ever, and his floor is high, too. He's my No. 4 QB in upcoming drafts.

HacheMan · Aug 13, 2014

[h=1]Top 10 high-risk fantasy picks[/h][h=3]Gronk, Peyton among most volatile selections based on average draft position[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Field Yates[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Rewind just about a year and consider players who were widely viewed as no-brainer first-round fantasy football picks: Buccaneers running back Doug Martin, Ravens back Ray Rice, then-Browns tailback Trent Richardson and speedy Bills RB C.J. Spiller.
Whoops.
But such is the nature of fantasy football. Injuries, regression in performance or perhaps unjustified faith in players can lead to moves we turn out to regret. We also can't avoid risk -- especially in redraft leagues. We have to view each season through a short-range lens, which sometimes means rolling the dice on players with substantial upside who also have question marks.
Here are the top 10 riskiest options among players who could be selected to fill key roles on fantasy teams (nine players and one defense) for the 2014 fantasy season.
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(Note: ADP stands for average draft position in ESPN leagues.)

1. Arian Foster | RB | Houston Texans | ADP: 12.7
From 2010 to 2012, there was no better fantasy football asset than Foster. But after just one injury-ridden season, some are wondering whether he'll ever be the same. The concern, beyond health, is usage, as Foster was the workhorse in a run-heavy scheme under Gary Kubiak. New head coach Bill O'Brien has spoken highly of Foster, but will his system afford Foster 25 touches per game, as he earned during those three star seasons?

2. Rob Gronkowski | TE | New England Patriots | ADP 34.7
Gronkowski soared up draft boards when head coach Bill Belichick announced that he had been medically cleared. With 42 touchdowns in 50 regular-season games, the early allure of Gronk is obvious. He's the clear-cut best tight end in football and a red zone monster. Yes, Gronk should be close to 100 percent healthy by the time Week 1 rolls around, but recent history (and his aggressive style of play) shows he's an injury risk.

3. Nick Foles | QB | Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 58.4
Small sample sizes are tantalizing: Foles torched the NFL with 27 touchdowns and just two picks last year, but can he come close to duplicating that in 2014? Given how rare such a touchdown-to-interception ratio is that he posted in 2013, it's unlikely; the real question is whether Foles can still be the top-eight quarterback many are hoping for, based on where they are drafting him. Given the depth of the position, we'd urge investors to wait. Philip Rivers (ADP of 106.9) and Jay Cutler (112.4) are equally smart pickups, and can be had at much better values.

4. Peyton Manning | QB | Denver Broncos | ADP: 5.1
Speaking of difficult-to-repeat seasons, the presumptive reason that Manning is landing within the top six picks on average is that people are assuming he'll replicate last year's incredible season. What Manning accomplished in 2013 -- including 55 touchdowns and 5,477 passing yards -- had never been done before. He could throw for 40 touchdowns and 4,800 yards this season and it'd still be an outstanding campaign. But counting on Manning to be so far ahead of the rest of the QB pack -- thus the only reason to take him in the middle of the first round -- is risky business.

5. Andre Ellington | RB | Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 54.0
Head coach Bruce Arians proclaimed Ellington would touch the ball 25 to 30 times per game this season. Are you buying that? Neither am I, but Ellington is a trendy breakout pick. For those who listen to the Fantasy Underground podcast, you know we've long admired Ellington's game, but I don't know that he can become a true workhorse back. Considering that and the brutal division he plays against (with three potentially dominant run defenses), Ellington is a boom-or-bust prospect.

6. Sammy Watkins | WR | Buffalo Bills | ADP: 78.6
All signs out of Buffalo show that Watkins has dominated training camp and wowed in exactly the way the team hoped for when it traded up to pick him fourth overall in the 2014 draft. I'm not ignoring the buzz and am smitten with Watkins' skill set, but I'm also not sold on EJ Manuel at quarterback. Just four rookie wideouts have finished in the top 25 of fantasy points at the position since 2010, and while Watkins' ADP places him 26th, I'd still prefer Colts wide receiverReggie Wayne or Saints wideout Marques Colston, both of whom have ADPs lower than Watkins.

7. Montee Ball | RB | Denver Broncos | ADP: 29.9
Ball's inconsistent preseason as a rookie in 2013 spilled over into the regular season, as fumbling and pass-protection concerns parked him behindKnowshon Moreno in the Denver backfield. Moreno is gone, and while Ball's natural skills as a runner and pass-catcher are enticing, he must prove he's hurdled over the issues from last season. His ADP of 29.9 is sensible, though we've seen him pop up in the second half of second rounds during mock drafts. That's a little rich for my blood. As far as his health, his recent appendectomy does not project to be an issue come the start of the regular season.

8. Seattle Seahawks | D/ST | ADP: 50.9
Do I believe the Seahawks will have one of the best -- if not the best -- defenses in the NFL this year? I do. But history has consistently showed us the volatility of defenses from year to year, and a current ADP of 50.9 is inexplicable. Our words to the wise: Be patient on your defense. If Seattle's D is sitting there in Round 14, fine. But waiting an extra round and landing Tampa Bay or New Orleans -- or even streaming defenses early in the season -- is just as viable of an option.

9. Ben Tate | RB | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 40.8
You could apply similar logic for both Tate and Ball: Any time a player hasn't yet been a workhorse back, there's a question as to how capable he will be in that role. Tate was a very good backup to Foster in Houston for three seasons, but now he's eyeing the starting gig in Cleveland. I'd say Tate still has the edge on the starting spot, but rookie Terrance West's potential playing time might water down Tate's overall value. Tate has also had his share of injuries.

10. Doug Martin | RB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 15.4
Martin is a prime example of the danger associated with a high-risk, high-reward pick, as a stellar rookie season in 2012 had fantasy owners buying high on the young running back last year. Unfortunately, he missed most of the 2013 season due to injury. Beyond a well-rounded skill set, part of Martin's appeal entering 2013 was an overwhelmingly dominant workload. He averaged 25.4 touches in the five full games he played in 2013, but the Bucs have a deep backfield this year that is expected to more evenly carry the load. That includes rookieCharles Sims, plus 2013 fill-ins Bobby Rainey and Mike James.

HacheMan · Aug 14, 2014

[h=1]Love, Hate and Johnny Football[/h]
By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

We come from the same place.

It's not the only reason I'm a Johnny Manzielfan. It's not the only reason I identify with him. And it's not the only reason I am writing about him.
But it is a starting place. For him, for me and for our story.
A three-star (of five) recruit out of high school, Johnny Manziel was rated the 97th-best prospect by the folks at ESPN's Recruiting Nation. Recruited by some big programs like Oregon, he wasn't a complete unknown, but he certainly wasn't on the national radar. He wasn't even on the radar of casual Texas A&M fans when, after a redshirt freshman year, Johnny beat out two others to be named the starting quarterback for the Aggies in 2012. I had never heard of him until I watched his first game, A&M's opener against Florida. And after a little while, I tweeted something to this effect: @matthewberrytmr: No idea how good he'll be, but Johnny Manziel sure is fun to watch. #A&M
Well then. The rest is, as they say, is history. The crazy numbers, beating Alabama on the road, winning the Heisman ... one helluva fun year. For him and his fans. Me very much included.
I grew up in College Station, where my parents have had season tickets to the Aggies for a few decades now. Spent pretty much every Saturday of my youth at Kyle Field with my folks, and to this day, watching A&M sports with my parents is among my favorite pastimes. My father still teaches at Texas A&M, and my mother, the Honorable Nancy Berry, is the mayor of College Station. It's the town where I joined my first fantasy league, some 30 years ago. A league for which I fly back for the auction every year. So yeah, my family's ties to College Station run deep.
So you can just imagine what a ride the past two years have been. And it should come as no shock to you that I am a Johnny Football fan. Rooting hard for him. Because I love the way he plays. Because I love what he did for the Texas A&M football program. Because I love his "screw the haters" attitude. Because watching him reminds me of watching football with my family.

And because he was suddenly thrust into the limelight.
Yes, he was a star at his small high school in Texas, but that's nothing compared to what has happened since his freshman year in college. He is legitimately a household name in a way few football players ever get to be. And he has yet to play a down in the NFL.
Hold that thought while I tell you a couple of quick stories.
A few years ago, I went to lunch with my good friend Erin. As we slid into the booth, there was a young couple at a table right next to us, and they had a small baby with them. The tables are pretty close together, so we had to squeeze to get by, and as I did, I saw the baby and said to the guy, "Hey, cute kid." He said thanks and that's it.
Erin and I sat down and I asked her for advice. I was going through something with my then-girlfriend/now-wife and wanted her opinion. It was a pretty deep and personal conversation. So OK, an hour or so after lunch, I'm checking Twitter and I saw this tweet: "Pretty good lunch. @matthewberrytmr said I had a cute kid!"
I went into a cold sweat. The guy had not given me any acknowledgement that he had any idea who I was, I didn't sense recognition in his face ... and I'd just had this deeply personal conversation for an hour, like, two feet from him. Ugh. No idea what, if anything, he heard, but that was the moment I realized life had changed for me.
Thanks to the insane reach and popularity of both ESPN and fantasy football, I have reached a very small modicum of notoriety. I'm not bragging; it's entirely due to ESPN and would be the same for anyone in this position. I'm just the guy wearing the suit and tie, you know? Regardless, there are some people who know who I am, and as a result, when I go out in public, there's a chance someone, somewhere could recognize me, so I need to always be mindful that there is always a possibility someone is watching and possibly recording. It's a weird mindset that takes getting used to.
I took the family on a cruise recently. Was a whole thing. Took all five kids. Had a great time, but as any parent who has ever traveled with children will tell you, there are, ahem, occasional bumps. So on the cruise, my oldest is trying to get to a specific event before it closes and needs me to go with him. So we are racing down the stairs when suddenly the 9-year-old is very hungry. He wants to go eat. Now maybe he was really hungry, maybe he just wanted to annoy my oldest (cuts both ways in our house) but either way, I am now in the middle of the stairs, trying to negotiate quickly with a stubborn 9-year-old. A guy walking up the stairs, in what I assume is a "been there, fellow dad" sort of way, says to me "How's it going?" I answer a little brusquely. "Fine, thank you." I can't deal with small talk right now.
I get the 9-year-old placated somehow, we are walking off, and my oldest says "That was rude."
"What do you mean?"
"That guy recognized you. He was a fan."
"What? No, he wasn't. He was just a dad who's been there."
"He said 'Hey! Matthew Berry!'"
Uh-oh.
"He did? You sure?"
"Yeah. Totally. You didn't hear him?"
"No. I was talking to your brother. So I was rude?"
"Yeah. Like, that guy is probably saying to someone, 'Man, Matthew Berry is a jerk.'"
Except the word my kid used wasn't jerk. Sigh.
Well, first, if you're reading this, Cruise Guy, my apologies. Caught me at a bad moment. But I think about that moment, because it's that moment times a billion for someone like Johnny Manziel. Like, every 30 seconds of his life, someone is approaching, staring, filming, tweeting, pointing.
Obscure TMR trivia: Before I came to ESPN, I spent two years working with the NBA as a fantasy consultant to help their fantasy basketball business grow and doing some on air stuff for them. Love the NBA, and definitely would not be here if not for them. Anyways, the NBA is always very gracious with me, and as a result I get invited to some fun things I have no business being at. This past All-Star weekend, I get invited to a party for LeBron. There are only like 200 people at this thing, and as I'm walking around, I see tons of celebrities and loads of NBA players. Kevin Durant. Blake Griffin. Chris Bosh. Dwyane Wade. And so on. My wife and I are like numbers 199 and 200 on this list -- everyone at this party is either someone or knows someone. And when you're at a party like this, you're supposed to act like you've been there before. Don't bother the celebs, just hang out and be casual. And guys like KD and Blake walked through the party with no issue. LeBron, however, couldn't move two feet without being stopped. A hug, can I get a picture, shake your hand ... the man literally could not move. And to his credit, he was smiling, gracious and took every picture that was asked.

I had a whole new appreciation for what his life must be like. He couldn't even relax at an intimate party with a bunch of other NBA superstars. It was just nuts. And Johnny Manziel's life is like that, too. At least with LeBron, he's sort of been prepared for it, right? Been a phenom since he was 12, NBA scouts and packed gyms in high school, he's grown up with the intense scrutiny. Johnny was 19 years old when he went from a kid no one has heard of to becoming Johnny Freakin' Football. In all caps. And that's a lot. You ever do something dumb when you were 19? Because I did tons of dumb stuff when I was 19. I still do tons of dumb stuff. I've made about a billion mistakes on social media, in how I've reacted to things in public, to things at the workplace, and I'm a 44-year-old professional writer. What chance does a 19-year-old kid have to navigate that correctly? Especially since one of the very qualities that makes him so great on the field is extreme confidence and swagger? It's made him a winner on the field, and now you want him to turn it off?
So he went to Vegas. So he parties. I'm sorry. I assume as soon as you got out of college you were in bed by 9 o' clock every night, right? Especially if you had a lot of money and women throwing themselves at you? I love Johnny Football because he's real. Trust me when I tell you every athlete and celebrity does what he does. He just doesn't hide it. Good for him. So he's flawed. Who isn't? He's a 21-year-old kid having fun, and I love it. Love it all. Love the money hand gestures and the scrambling. I think the kid is a winner. If he doesn't perform on the field, OK, fine, we can talk. But until then, cut him some slack.
Because he's human.
Like all of us.
Maybe because I'm older now. Maybe because I'm a parent. Maybe because, on a super-small level, I've been through some of the same experiences Johnny has in terms of not being ready for extra scrutiny, being dumb on social media, letting some troll get the better of me or just making an error in judgment. But for whatever the reason, I try to be a lot more forgiving these days. More patient. More understanding. And desperately wishing for more kindness from everywhere in the world.
We should cut Johnny Manziel some slack. Because we should cut everyone some slack.
Fantasy football is a hobby. A game. Something we do for fun. And that's what Manziel is. He's fun.
This week in particular has been a tough one. There's a lot of very depressing real-life stuff out there these days. And when reading about it becomes too much, I like that I have a place like fantasy football to escape to. A place that's fun.
And as we meander very slowly into the 2014 edition of Love / Hate, that's my big ask of you: Keep it fun.
This whole column may seem cloying or fanboyish or too earnest, and I'm fine with that criticism and any other. Because there's not a lot I can contribute to, well, anything, especially helping the current state of affairs. But I have somehow managed to carve out one little slice of the Internet here. And this will be my most-read column of the year. So I'm taking this to say to every fantasy player reading this that our game is supposed to be fun. Treat it and the others that play it with you as such.
Before the inevitable injuries, bad beats and underperforming players start up, try to hang on to this idea: It's an escape for a lot of people. And it'd be great if you could keep that fragile oasis intact for everyone else who plays.
Don't send athletes angry tweets. Stop with insane over-the-top and not-funny message board rants. And hey, when I miss a call (and I'm gonna miss plenty), no need to tell me about it. I'll already be well aware.
It's very simple. Don't cheat. Don't be a jerk. Try to make your fantasy football league a better place. Try to follow the wise and sage-like advice of Bill S. Preston and Ted "Theodore" Logan: Be excellent to each other. And party on, dudes!
Just like Johnny Freakin' Football.
[h=3]The annual guide to Love/Hate[/h]So, I hate the terms "sleeper" and "bust." I believe there are no such things. Or rather, that there are such things, but whether a player can be a "sleeper" or a "bust" is entirely dependent on what it costs to acquire said player.
Not to get all business-y on you (or all non-English-y), but a common and basic business term is return on investment, or ROI. Let's say you were a company that made two products but had to downsize to just one. If one product sells for $1 and the other sells for 50 cents and they both sell equally well, you'd think you'd want to keep producing the $1 product, right? But what if it costs 75 cents to produce the $1 item and just 10 cents to make the 50-cent one? Well, now you're changing your tune.
Fantasy is the same way. Every player has value. It's simply about what it costs to get him. This column is all about players who, based on ESPN.com draft results for standard 10-team leagues, cost too much (or not enough) to acquire.
So please use this column as intended. It is not a sleepers-and-busts column. Rather, it's a market-inefficiency column. With puns.
So here's what I did. I went to the ESPN.com Average Draft Position page. This is a list of the average rounds where players are being drafted in ESPN.com standard 10-team leagues. I am aware that ADP varies greatly from site to site, so while you may see Montee Ball going in the first round somewhere, he's going in the third on ESPN.com, so I'm going off that list. I am a company man.

By doing it this way (round-by-round) you'll have an idea of whom is a value in each round and whom to avoid at that price. So, as I go through each round, if a player is going too low for me, he's a "Love." If he's being drafted too high, he's a "Hate." It's that simple. So yeah, just because I "love" Joique Bell this year and "hate" Marshawn Lynch does not mean I recommend drafting Bell over Lynch. It means at the 6th pick overall, I'm concerned with Lynch, and while most are waiting until the 8th round to take Bell, I don't think it's a reach to take him two or three rounds earlier.
Now, not only is it not a sleepers-and-busts list, it's also not a comprehensive list of players I really like or don't like. For example, I absolutely love Antonio Brown this year, but I have him ranked as a third rounder, which is exactly where he is going. So he doesn't make the list.
If you want a comprehensive list of whom I value and where, please check out my Top 200 rankings, which will be updated throughout the preseason.
Addressing the last (fingers crossed) of the questions I get every year, people wonder why there are so many more loves than hates. That's just the nature of the beast. It doesn't do you any good to say I hate Chad Henne. His value and rank already reflect that he is not highly thought of. I'm still going round-by-round, and, in a standard ESPN league, there are 16 rounds, so you're getting at least 16 hates. But be aware that, in general, I am from the "no such thing as a bad pick after Round 12" school of thought. So you're really choosing "hate" only from the guys who are considered at a high enough level to be drafted with big expectations, which pretty much eliminates most guys in the lower rounds.
Finally, please remember this is being written in middle of August. Only one week of preseason games have been played; camps haven't been open that long; much can and will change in the next month. Fantasy value changes all the time. Roles and opportunities, information about players and schemes, draft trends, health and results in the preseason all play a factor, and if you refuse to keep your mind open and are unwilling to change an opinion on a player once you get new info, that's a quick way to lose. And the next few weeks are crucial.

So follow me on Twitter, become my friend on Facebook, listen to the podcast, watch "Fantasy Football Now" on Sundays at 11 a.m. on ESPN2 (there's preseason episodes every Sunday), read all the articles and ranking updates until it's time to draft, then make the decision. Or, if you choose to ignore that, don't blame me for it. Remember, only a poor craftsman blames his tool. That's all I am, your tool. Wait, that came out wrong. Which is odd, given that I've used that joke five years in a row now. Huh. Ah, what are you gonna do? I'm a slave to tradition.
[h=3]Players I Love for 2014[/h]Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (going in top three, take No. 1 overall): That's right. Starting with only the most obvious name in the universe. My science fair project this year is gonna be "Will the sun come up tomorrow? A case study in probability." Peterson is going anywhere from one to three overall and as you know, the first two picks of your draft arecrucial to your success. For me, it comes down to Norv. Forget Cleveland last year, where there was no talent at running back. The final three years Norv Turner was in San Diego, only the Saints had more targets and receptions to their running backs than the Chargers.
I spoke to both Norv and Vikings general manager Rick Spielman at the NFL combine this year, and numbers like 50, 60 and 70 receptions for Peterson were thrown around. Did you catch those names I just dropped? No matter. All Day is gonna be doing the catching. I'll take closer to 50 than 70 balls, but the fact remains: They want to (and will) get him in space where he can catch the ball and won't continually run into eight men in the box. There have been only two seasons where Peterson has caught at least 40 balls: 2012 and 2009. They happen to be the two best fantasy seasons of his career and two of the three seasons in which he's played all 16 games.
Matt Forte, RB, Bears (going fifth overall, I have at No. 4): Another obvious name. Don't worry. I'll get to some deeper folks soon enough. But again, every pick matters, and ESPN drafters are taking Peyton Manning ahead of Matt Forte. I love Manning, but I have Forte ahead of him as I believe there is a rock-solid top tier of four running backs this year, not a top three, and that quartet includes Matt Forte. Saw someone take Forte No. 1 in an industry "expert draft" and I was asked about it on the radio. Yes, that's the kind of thing I get asked about on the radio. I get very different interviews than, say, Jennifer Lawrence. Just once, I'd like someone to ask me who I'm wearing. Or if that was me, canoodling with my co-star? Sure, my co-star is Tim Hasselbeck, but still. Someone could ask. Anyway, I said it's not something I would have done, but I can defend it. Healthwise, he's the safest of the elite, with the most games played among them the past four seasons. The argument against Forte has always been he doesn't get the ball at the goal line. Then Marc Trestman showed up last year and all that changed. Nine of Forte's 12 touchdowns last year -- NINE -- were scored from inside an opponent's 10-yard line, which was tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. He also had 25 total rushing attempts inside an opponent's 10-yard line, fifth-most in the NFL and more than Adrian Peterson, among others.
Montee Ball, RB, Broncos (going in the third, I have as a first-rounder): At first glance, Montee Ball goes against everything I believe in, including, but not limited to, having only one "e" at the end of a first name. I preach safety in the first and he's anything but. Young player, completely unproven (mostly on the bench last year; at best he was the lesser half of a RBBC in the second half), out for the entire preseason with an appendectomy. But look a little closer and the thing that isn't unproven is this: Peyton Manning's running backs get incredibly good looks. Last year, 80 percent of Knowshon Moreno's runs came with six or fewer guys in the box. That's an insane amount. And Manning teams -- he's basically calling the plays at this point (Omaha!) -- run when they are in close. In the two years since Manning came to Denver, only three teams have more runs or rushing touchdowns inside an opponent's 10-yard line than the Denver Broncos. And they've done it with talent that isn't close to what Ball (a touchdown machine in college) has. Montee will be ballin' so hard this year you'll ignore that terrible joke and thank me later.
Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant, WR, Broncos and Cowboys (late second, early second): Cheating here because I have them as high second-rounders and they are going in the second (though later). I don't really have anything else to write, so just wanted to tell you both are gonna have monster years, and I've got no problem with either in the first round of a 12-team league, and the difference between them and Calvin Johnson is not very big.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers (third, second): Injury-prone. Too many weapons in Green Bay. They're gonna run more with Eddie Lacy. Did a lot of his production last year whileRandall Cobb was out. I don't know -- what's your favorite knock on Jordy Nelson? Whatev's. He's an elite talent with an even better quarterback throwing to him. Over the past three years he's had 36 games where he and Aaron Rodgers where both on the field. Take the per-game averages, put them on a 16-game pace and it's over 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns, which last year would have been two points fewer than Dez Bryant. Last year, in the nine games Nelson and Rodgers played together, Nelson averaged almost nine targets, almost 100 yards and almost a touchdown per game. Over a 16-game season, that's over 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns, which last year would have been two points better than Demariyus Thomas. He's the only wide receiver other than Julio Jones that is going outside the top five at the position but has a legit shot of being the top wide receiver in next year's fantasy drafts.
Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals (third/fourth; second): I've seen him go late in the second in some other places, but on ESPN, he's going around pick 31, which is the first pick of the fourth. And is way too low for me. You know what he can do as a pass-catcher: 56 receptions last year on 69 targets (!), over 500 yards, three receiving scores ... but his rushing intrigues me as well. New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is a fan of the run game. Last time he called plays, first as the offensive coordinator and then head coach in Oakland in 2010 and 2011, only three teams in the NFL had more rushing attempts or rushing touchdowns, and no team in the NFL had more rushing yards. Besides, what's Hue gonna do, let Andy Dalton throw it? Exactly. Jeremy Hill might vulture some touchdowns, but it's worth noting that of Bernard's five rushing touchdowns last year, four came from within an opponent's 10 yard line.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots (fourth, third/late second): Health, schmealth. A dominant player at a position with not a lot of them, I'm OK rolling the dice in a 10-team league because of the weekly advantage he gives you and the depth of the replacement pool if (when?) he gets injured. Remember, it's a weekly game, and once you get past the elite difference-making running backs and wide receivers (which is where you are in the third round), give me a guy that allows me to name my team "Gronk if you're horny."
Victor Cruz, WR, Giants (fifth, fourth): I'm no Eli fan, but there's no way he's as bad as he was last year. Cruz scored just four touchdowns, and three of them came in Week 1. That'll change. A perfect fit for the offense Ben McAdoo wants to run in New York, he will excel in the short, quick-passing game they are planning, and they will line him all over, create mismatches and let him outrun everyone.
Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals (sixth, third): Love me the Andre Ellington. Liked his Facebook page, have the poster, made him my contact in case of emergency. Related: Does anyone have Andre Ellington's cell? So yeah, I'm a fan, but I'm not the only one. Bruce Arians is saying they are going to "build their offense around this guy." A big-play guy, he had eight rushes last year of 20 yards or more, the same amount as Adrian Peterson and more than Jamaal Charles, among others. And they both had twice as many carries. To that point, no running back had a higher percentage of big plays (10-plus yards) than Ellington.
Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington (sixth, fifth/sixth): Seems ESPN drafters are just as high on him as I am, but I just wanted to throw down my support for where he is going. As disappointing as last year was for him, he still averaged 15 fantasy points a game. He has one of the best supporting casts in football, a pass-happy coach who made Andy Dalton (Andy Dalton!) a top-five fantasy quarterback and, of course, there's the rushing numbers. If he plays all 16 games, he's a top-five QB this year, easy.
Ray Rice, RB, Ravens (sixth, fifth): My job is to judge the man on his value in fantasy football, so I'll just say that he looks to be a lot healthier (and thinner) than last year, he is a good fit for Gary Kubiak's scheme and the two-game suspension will keep his draft day cost depressed. Make sure you grab Bernard Pierce too, but I don't believe he's done yet.
Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers (sixth, fourth/fifth): Healthy Michael Crabtree, a (Colin Kaepernick) nation turns its eyes to you. Last two years, when both were in the lineup, Crabtree averaged almost eight targets a game.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons (fifth/sixth, fourth): He's an OBPTNWLBWHYWYL (Old Boring Player That Nobody Will Like But Will Help You Win Your League). There are a number of these guys this year that you'll sort of draft with a sigh, preceded by an "I guess I'll take ..." Not sexy, no upside, maybe they burned you in the past. They are old and they are not trendy. What they are, however, are bargains. So what if everyone yawns when you take him? So what if he burned you on twitter? Healthy Julio, healthy Roddy, rebuilt offensive line -- I'm back on Atlanta's offense this year and you should be too.

Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants (seventh, fifth/late fourth): As of this writing, he's going at pick 61 in ESPN drafts, but that's gonna rise as he keeps playing well in the preseason. He will be a PPR monster (Eli is going to be mayor of Dump-Off City this year, you watch) and again, in the West Coast offense they wanna run (up-tempo, no huddle, quick slants) he's actually a great fit. He's also going to stay on the field for most of every series. I hear the arguments about how bad the Giants offensive line is going to be, but last year, behind the Raiders offensive line (fourth-worst in run blocking per Pro Football Focus), Jennings was awesome sauce. Starting in Week 9 -- the first week he got 15 or more carries -- Jennings was the 11th-best running back in fantasy in terms of points, 11th in terms of total yards and tied for ninth in touchdowns. Playing for the Raiders. Yeah, maybe Andre Williams vultures some scores, I get that, but when they get in close, they have no red zone target except for Rueben Randle (that's called foreshadowing, kids). Last five years, under Tom Coughlin, Giants running backs have the second-most touchdowns in the league. When they get close they run, and that's not changing this year with their personnel. Will be enough to go around.
Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens (seventh, fifth): Two words: Andre Johnson. The lead wide receiver in Gary Kubiak's offense has always put up numbers, as play action is a huge part of what those offense do (Texans had the sixth-most play-action snaps in the NFL during the Kubiak era). He's the best deep guy they have. As I stated in "100 Facts", Smith set career highs in targets, receptions and yards on deep throws last season ... and yet had zero deep touchdowns. He had at least five deep touchdowns in both of his first two NFL seasons. As I also stated in "100 Facts," this is the third straight year I have pumped Smith. I might have a problem.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings (seventh, fifth): In Norv I trust. In last year's "Love/Hate," I had Josh Gordon as a love, suggesting you reach at least three rounds earlier to get him. You're welcome, America. (Of course, I also had Dwayne Bowe. Sorry 'bout that). Anyway, here was one of the stats I used to pump up Gordon: "Over the past five years, only the Colts attempted more passes of at least 15 yards downfield than Norv Turner's Chargers, and Turner is now the Browns' offensive coordinator." A year later, Norv is now in Minnesota, but while his home address has changed, his penchant for throwing deep hasn't. Patterson looks like a video game out there. This is the last year you'll be able to get him outside the first two rounds. Did I recently legally change one of my daughters' name to Cordarrelle? Maybe.
Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons (eighth, seventh): Fantasy. Kryptonite. (Copyright Bill Simmons). I can't resist him. Sigh. And he's already banged up. If you draft him, you need to make sure you get Devonta Freeman or Antone Smith, whoever wins the backup job. (I'm betting on Freeman). That said -- six touchdowns in his final six games last year on a terrible team going nowhere. Rebuilt offensive line, healthy Julio and Roddy to keep the safeties from cheating up, he won't cost very much and he's got a shot to be a very productive flex back with RB2 upside some weeks. OBPTNWLBWHYWYL.
Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots (eighth, fifth): We know it's always dangerous to count on a New England running back, but I like Vereen because of his role in the passing game. That's not gonna change. His 69 targets last year were fifth-most on the team -- and he played in only eight games! One more game than Gronk, three more targets. Over 16 games, that's a 126-target pace. And at his career catch rate of 70 percent, that's 89 receptions. Small sample caveats and all that, but in the three games he played with Gronk in the lineup, he averaged nine targets. They didn't go away when Gronk was healthy. That's right. When I hang out with my buddies, I talk about things like Shane Vereen's career catch percentage. Just like Jennifer Lawrence does, I'm sure.
Joique Bell, RB, Lions (eighth, late fourth/fifth): The Lions running back I want this year (you'll never guess who is in "hate") and I don't think it's all that close. Wanna win a bar bet? Here's a good one. Over the last two years, Reggie Bush has 89 receptions. And Joique Bell has 105. Yeah. Last two years, Bush has 10 rushes inside an opponent's 10-yard line and two touchdowns from that distance. Bell has 12 rushes and seven touchdowns. He's a better fit for the new offense Joe Lombardi wants to run (basically, a version of the Saints offense with a lot more two tight end sets. Read more here from NFL Nation's Michael Rothstein). They say put your money where your mouth is, and the fact that the new regime in Detroit signed Bell to more guaranteed money than Bush this offseason speaks volumes.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos (ninth, sixth/seventh): There's 136 Peyton Manning targets up for grabs in Denver. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true.
Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers (ninth, seventh/eighth): Sometimes, you don't have to be the prettiest girl in the bar, you just have to be the only girl in the bar.
Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (10th, seventh): Last year, Thomas caught the quietest 77 balls this side of Kendall Wright. Meanwhile, Darren Sproles and his 89 targets are in Philly. Yes, some of those looks will go to Brandin Cooks, but not all of them. Ignore the talk of Thomas being third on the depth chart. Or better yet, encourage it, because it'll only help drive his price down further. He's the best passing-down running back on a team that throws. (Career receptions for Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram combined: 24 in 47 games). He's gonna have the ball in his hands a lot.
Kendall Wright, WR, Titans (10th, seventh): Speaking of the Quiet Man ... dude had 94 receptions last year. Only two touchdowns. There were only nine wideouts who caught 90 or more balls last year. Eight of them had at least five touchdowns with the average being nine touchdowns. The average. I'm not predicting that for Wright, but I am a believer in Ken Whisenhunt's ability to get the most out of his talent, the most recent example being last year's San Diego Chargers. They are going to move Wright around a lot, and while I am on board with the Justin Hunter sleeper talk (more foreshadowing!), make no mistake, Wright will be the focal point of this offense again. And with a more reasonable touchdown total (based on volume of targets), he's a top-25 wide receiver who won't cost nearly that much.
Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys (10th, seventh): Josh Gordon. Calvin Johnson. Torrey Smith. Riley Cooper. Sorry, just listing the only wide receivers in the NFL last year that caught at least 40 balls and averaged more than Terrance Williams' 16.7 yards per catch. When I spoke to Jason Garrett at the combine, his eyes lit up only when I asked about one player. Wanna guess who? Under Scott Linehan last year, the Lions threw the ball 634 times. With the Cowboys defense, I'll take the over this year and they can't all go to Dez. Williams is the real deal.
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills (10th, eighth): Gonna get the ball on the goal line and be a legit part of time-share with C.J. Spiller. People forget he was actually a top-10 fantasy running back last year after I put him as a later-round Love, making him a repeat OBPTNWLBWHYWYL .
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears (11th, eighth): If you decide to wait on quarterback, Cutler is a great one to grab toward the end of the starting QB run. Second year in the Trestman system, the talent that surrounds Cutler is as good as any team in the league. If you wanna play fast and loose with numbers, combining Cutler and McCown fantasy points last year would give you the third-highest scoring quarterback by ESPN scoring. Cutler is still injury-prone and he's not mistake-free either, but he doesn't need to be a top-three QB at this price.

Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, QB, Patriots and Falcons: Brady is going as QB No. 10 in ESPN drafts and Matt Ryan is being drafted as QB No. 12. That's nuts. See "100 Facts" for my thoughts and stats on both Brady and Ryan and why they are both due for big bounce-back seasons.

Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles (11th, ninth): I don't know, do you think Jeremy "20 games missed the past three years" Maclin stays healthy? Starting in Week 9, when Nick Folestook over full-time, Cooper had 27 receptions on 47 targets, 521 yards and six scores. Now, three of them came in that crazy Oakland game, but still. That's a full-season pace of almost 1,000 yards, 50 receptions on 80 targets and 10 touchdowns. Those numbers would have been good for the 14th-best wide receiver in fantasy last year. I expect some regression in the touchdown pace, but so what? He's being drafted outside the top 40 at wide receiver. I'm gonna repeat that because it's a helpful trick in writing to emphasize something. Outside the top 40. You're telling me he can't get to top 30? Top 25? Wherever he lands, it's gonna be at a profit.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (11th, 10th): He's Norvelous.
Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins (12th, sixth): (Ducks) I know. I know, OK, I know? (Ducks again). Look, if you'll just let me (ducks again. Starts deeking back and forth). Just if you can give me one second -- (gets hit on arm, wipes it off, keeps moving) OK, I hear you, just (just getting pelted at this point) ... Fine, quickly, it'll-be-a-better-offense-this-year-with-new-offensive-coordinator-Bill-Lazor-from-the-Eagles-using-Miller-in-the-McCoy-role-and-his-only-competition-is-Knowshon-Moreno-who-isn't-close-to-the-talent-of-Lamar-Miller-and-I-still-believe-in-his -- OK fine, fine fine. You win. I'm leaving now. Stop. I'm leaving. (Runs off stage).
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington (12th, seventh/eighth): Health is a concern, but withDeSean Jackson stretching the field and Pierre Garcon demanding attention, the middle of the field will be wide open for Reed. In today's episode of playing fast and loose with simple math, Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert combined for 126 tight end targets in Jay Gruden's offense last season. If you combine those two into one player, only Jimmy Graham had more targets among tight ends. IF he can stay on the field, Reed is gonna have a big year.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints (12th, seventh/eighth): As the hype continues to build, there's no way he remains a 12th-rounder. So just going on record as thinking he is worth a look in the seventh-to-eighth round on upside alone, but if it gets too crazy (or higher than that), there's no potential for profit. The talent is immense and the team/scheme is a great fit, so if you get a shot at him in this area, take it.
Shonn Greene, RB, Titans (14th, 11th/12th): Another OBPTNWLBWHYWYL, he's not very good, but he's going to be better than a 14th-rounder. Still has a chance to start and get decent playing time on a team that will run the ball.
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles (14th, 12th): Excuse me. Pardon me. Can I just, yes, right there, if you could squeeze, right and if you over there will just move and I'll just duck here and ma'am, if you could bend slightly and hang onto the rail ... ah! Perfect. Yep. Plenty of room left on the bandwagon.
The other trendy 14th & 15th-rounders: I'd be cool with any of these guys in the 10th or 11th: Kelvin Benjamin (Wow. I'm usually not a big rookie wide receiver type); Christine Michael and Carlos Hyde should be two of the first "true handcuff" guys off the board; I'm on the Justin Hunter bandwagon; I do think Jeremy Hill is going to be better than a lot of people think (again, due to the Hue Jackson tendencies); Andre Williams actually needs to be drafted in the eighth or ninth round, not the 16th where he's going here. And it's not if, but when will Ladarius Green be a stud fantasy tight end? I say second half of this year.
[h=3]Other receiving votes:[/h]These are players going outside the top 14 rounds. I advocate going defense and kicker in rounds 15 and 16 (the last two rounds) of an ESPN standard draft, so for my draft strategy, consider anyone being drafted outside the first 14 rounds as being "undrafted."
That said -- some people are in deeper leagues, or draft the Seattle defense earlier or got distracted by their 9-year-old because he just taught your 2½-year-old twin daughters how to open the magic marker box and they are currently going to town on your walls, so you ran out of time and got put on auto pick and somehow wound up with a defense or kicker you didn't want. Just to pull a completely random example out of thin air.
So for all of you, here's some players I think should or could be drafted depending on team need or personal preference. I don't advocate more than one QB but maybe you want two. Or need another tight end. Or want more upside running backs and/or wide receivers. I've grouped them by position in no real particular order (read my rankings for where I would slot them).
Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals: Over the final seven games last year, only Peyton Manning had more passing yards, only Peyton and Aaron Rodgers averaged more passing yards per game, and only six quarterbacks had more touchdowns.
Geno Smith, QB, Jets: I know. But while there were some brutal moments last year, he also had five 20-point games. More than Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, same number as Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. Second year in the league, much improved supporting cast.
Jake Locker, QB, Titans: Before you laugh, Philip Rivers was left for dead too before Ken Whisenhunt showed up.
Terrance West, RB, Browns: Yeah, because Ben Tate is an iron man.
James White, RB, Patriots: Vereen has had health issues, Steven Ridley can't hold onto the ball and we know Bill Belichick has no issue throwing whoever he wants in there.
Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers: Feel strongly about this one. Really talented back who is going to get more work than people think. Martin will get 65 percent or so of the RB touches, but Sims is gonna contribute sooner than later. Very good player; think Matt Forte.
Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys: Very good pass-catching running back on a team that is going to throw a ton. Not a pure handcuff to Murray (he'd split with Josepth Randle) but certainly, being a backup to an injury-prone running back isn't the worst thing for your fantasy value.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons: See Jackson, Steven.
Donald Brown, RB, Chargers: The Chargers will be more of a three-headed monster than folks realize, and between the history of injury and/or fumbling we've seen from Ryan Mathews in the past, "Dammit Donald" could easily have a larger role.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts: One of the toughest players in the NFL, while Trent Richardson is no sure thing. Not even close.
Chris Polk, RB, Eagles: Polk, not Darren Sproles, is the McCoy handcuff you want. Would be top 10 if anything happened to McCoy.
Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs: Speaking of guys who would be top 10 if something happened to the guy in front of them ...
Bryce Brown, RB, Bills: Talented player who is probably the Bills' starting running back next year. If not sometime this season, given the injury history of both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.
Theo Riddick, RB, Lions: I am really not a Reggie Bush fan this year. And I think some Lions coaches agree with me.
Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns: Assuming Josh Gordon is suspended for a length of time, they're still gonna throw to someone. I say it's Hawkins.
Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers: Lost rookie year, but loads of talent and one of the reasons the Steelers let Emmanuel Sanders walk.
Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons: With Tony Gonzalez gone, Atlanta will go three-wide a lot more this year.
Mike Williams, WR, Bills: Potential fantasy zombie -- nice red-zone target for EJ Manuel.
Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings: If Matt Cassell wins the job, then I like Jennings. His full-season pace in games played with Cassell was 88 receptions, 1,018 yards and eight touchdowns. Those numbers would have been two points better than Larry Fitzgerald last year.
Reuben Randle, WR, Giants: The only real red-zone threat they have in the passing game.
Dexter McCluster, WR, Titans: Listed as a WR in our game, McCluster will be used in theDanny Woodhead role in Ken Whisenhunt's offense. Sneaky PPR play in deeper leagues.
[h=3]Players I Hate for 2014[/h]
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks (going in first, I have as a second-rounder): Not to get all technical on you, but Marshawn Lynch gives me something those in the medical profession call "the heebie jeebies." There's certainly nothing to point to in terms of his production last year. He was a stud like he always is. For me, it's a combo of things. The workload is the obvious one. Since coming to Seattle in 2010, including playoff games, no player in the NFL has carried the ball more. Three straight years of at least 250 rushes and as I noted in "100 Facts," history has not been kind to running backs who come into a year with three straight seasons of at least 250 carries. For example, last year that list wasArian Foster, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice and Steven Jackson. How'd they work out for you? The Skittles thing is cute and all but seriously, shouldn't a NFL running back who wants to get paid eat a lot healthier? You hear all these off-the-field issues, he had the brief hold-out, showed up out of shape, they have really good (I mean really good) backups behind him. I always say I'd rather jump off the bandwagon a year too early than a year too late. Lynch will probably be great again this year. But since it costs me a first-round pick to enjoy it, it won't be on my team.

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers (top-14 pick, third round): Here's the quote new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford gave the Tampa Bay Times this summer. "I think you have to alternate," Tedford said. "Even when we had two 1,000-yard rushers (at California), J.J. Arrington was a 2,000-yard rusher and we had a couple times guys had a thousand yards apiece. But I don't believe that one back can carry the load. It's just too physical. I think you probably need to have two to three guys to bring different things to the table." J.J. Arrington, Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best, Shane Vereen ... Jeff Tedford certainly had success with running backs in college. Key words is backs. Plural. Lead back on Tedford's college teams got about 60 percent of the touches and I think that's what Martin gets. Now, running backs can have a lot of fantasy value on 60 percent of the carries, but will Martin? Not to the tune of being a top-14 player he won't, which is where he's going.
Reggie Bush, RB, Lions (third, sixth): See Bell, Joique. Will have a much different role this year in Joe Lombardi's offense. He's gonna be in the Darren Sproles role, which means he's still a fine pick for PPR (though, again, not as good as Bell). But taking him in the third in a standard non-PPR league is officially "whoa crazy crazy."
Ben Tate, RB, Browns (fourth, sixth): I get the argument. A perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme (same thing he ran in Houston, basically) this is a team that will need to run and if Johnny Manziel is the quarterback, even better, as mobile QBs have traditionally helped create room for their running backs. But Tate has missed eight games the past three years (not to mention the entire first season he was drafted) and if you add in the games he was less than 100 percent and on the injury report that number goes up, if my math is correct, to three billion. I keep hearing Terrance West's name too much for my liking, especially when Tate is going ahead of guys such as Andre Ellington and Rashad Jennings. If you're gonna roll the dice on a talented but injury-prone player in this round, why wouldn't it be C.J. Spiller (currently going four picks later), who we have seen as a top-10 back in this league? Too rich for my blood.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington (fifth, sixth): Great player I am thrilled to have on my favorite NFL team, but if we are talking fantasy, people expecting a repeat of last year will be disappointed. He scored nine touchdowns on 82 receptions. Prior to last year, he'd never had more than 62 receptions in a season and here are his career touchdown totals, starting in 2008: 2, 9, 6, 4, 2, 9. He's not a huge touchdown guy traditionally, there are better red-zone options than him in Washington and, as much as I love RGIII, deep-ball accuracy is something he struggled with last year. Taking Jackson at WR 14, ahead of guys such as Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, Roddy White and Keenan Allen, among others, is putting too much faith in last year's numbers.
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers (fifth, sixth/seventh): Been saying this on the podcast for a while., San Diego will be a three-headed monster at running back this year and Ryan Mathews is no sure thing to lead it. They signed Donald Brown to real money; he's not gonna just be hanging out, waiting until Mathews gets injured (still a real possibility, last year notwithstanding). I love this stat from "100 Facts": Last year, Mathews and Danny Woodhead converted just 13-of-71 opportunities in the red zone (18 percent). Meanwhile, Donald Brown was the only running back in the league to have at least 15 red-zone opportunities and converting at least one third of them for touchdowns. He was 6-for-18 (33 percent). Trust me when I tell you the San Diego coaches are well aware of this. Given what it'll cost to acquire each guy this year, I'd much rather have Brown (ADP of 135) than Mathews (ADP of 47).
Seattle D/ST (sixth round, 11th): I'm OK with reaching for Seattle's defense. Feel they are that good. Reaching in the 11th round, not the sixth! They're great but they were less than a point a game better than Carolina and only one point a game better than Kansas City, neither of whom were drafted last year. I always wait until the second-to-last round to pick my defense for a lot of reasons, this fact being one of them: Over the past four years, only five of the teams drafted as a top-10 defense finished the year as a top-10 defense. Drafting a defense in the sixth is nuts.
Trent Richardson, RB, Colts (sixth, late seventh/eighth): My friend Ron Shandler is one of the best fantasy baseball minds ever and a seminal figure in the fantasy sports industry. He is known for many theories in fantasy baseball, one of them being "draft skills, not roles." The idea being, of course, that over a long season, skills win out and roles can change. And that's my big problem with Richardson (and, coming soon, Bishop Sankey!). The big argument for him is "he's the guy!" Well, he was the guy last year too, and Donald Brown was better than him. I hear ya on how good he was his rookie year, but ... was he? Ran for less than 1,000 yards and averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, his fantasy value was carried by 12 touchdowns and a whopping 70 targets in the pass game. Don't think he's scoring 12 times this year and maybe he gets that much volume this year, but I'd hate to count on that, especially given all the other pass-catchers at Andrew Luck's disposal this year. The past two years they've said they want to be a power running team. And the past two years they've been 22nd and 23rd in rushing attempts. Read this blog from NFL Nation's Mike Wells, then tell me if you still think they're gonna run a ton. With a straight face.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts (seventh, eighth): I swear, I actually really like the Colts this year. And I absolutely love Hilton's talent. The best wide receiver on the Colts, and it's not close. Here's my issue on him for fantasy: inconsistency. He led the Colts in targets last year. In fact, starting in Week 9 (after Reggie Wayne went down), Hilton averaged nine targets a game. His 84 targets from Week 9 on was the seventh-most in the NFL. And here were his point totals in those games: 30, 13, 4, 3, 4, 0, 7, 5, 15. One great week, two very solid weeks, five brutal weeks. And again, that was while he was seeing the seventh-most targets in the NFL. Reggie Wayne is back. So is Dwayne Allen (don't discount that!). They added Hakeem Nicks. Da'Rick Rogers is coming on. There's no way he sees the kind of volume he did last year where, again, he was wildly inconsistent. He'll have four or five awesome games this year but a bunch of stinkers as well and, given the other high-upside guys you have to pass on to take Hilton. Cordarrelle Patterson, Torrey Smith and Michael Floyd are all in the same ADP area code, and I'd rather have any of them.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks (seventh, 12th): Mark Sanchez. Brandon Weeden. Chad Henne. Sorry. Just listing some of the quarterbacks who have more 300-yard games the past two years than Russell Wilson. He has two. In 32 games, Russell Wilson has thrown for 300 yards twice. Exhibit A in why real football often differs from fantasy, I think Russell Wilson is a pretty good NFL QB. I also think he's an overrated fantasy QB. Yes, he finished eighth in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, but that's more a result of playing all 16 games than anything else. Remember, we play a weekly game and on a points-per-game basis, he was 13th last year, averaging just .13 points more per game than Alex Smith. The Seahawks just won the Super Bowl with the 2nd-lowest passing play percentage in the NFL. If you're Pete Carroll, why are you changing that? Yell "Percy Harvin" at me all you want, but Harvin, who is no guarantee to stay healthy, has never had a 1,000-yard receiving season in his career. Need more? Over the past two years, the Seahawks have the second slowest offensive pace of any team. They are in no hurry. And when they get close? They run. Wilson threw the ball 22 times inside an opponent's 10-yard line. That was tied for 19th in the league and only two more than Sam Bradford, who, you know, played seven games last year. Not a top-10 QB this year, despite being drafted like one.
Carolina D/ST (eighth, 15th): See D/ST, Seattle.
Matt Prater, K, Broncos (ninth, 16th): I mean, come on people. Really? I'm sure people think I am cherry-picking here and taking an easy "hate" but I don't define the average draft positions. These are based on real ESPN.com drafts. And in the millions of ESPN drafts, Matt Prater is going, on average, in the ninth round. I could tell you the stat I mentioned in Manifesto ... that, on average, the best kicker is worth about two points more a game. That last year, Stephen Gostkowski had one of the three highest-scoring season for a kicker since 1960. He was a top-10 kicker in 11 weeks, the most for a kicker since 2004. Which sounds impressive until you look at it another way: One of the best kicker seasons in fantasy history and there were still five weeks where he shouldn't have been started. But it's not just about the unpredictable nature of kickers or the statistically small difference between kicker No. 1 and No. 10. It's also about opportunity cost. Look at who you are passing on in the eighth and ninth rounds for a defense or kicker: Michael Floyd, Sammy Watkins, Joique Bell, Jeremy Maclin, Reggie Wayne, Emmanuel Sanders, Pierre Thomas ... lots of high upside plays or solid veterans that will help you with bye-week depth and are undervalued. If you draft Matt Prater in the ninth round, then I have failed you. Your parents have failed you. And yes, America has failed you.
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers (10th, 13th): There's nothing wrong with Anquan Boldin. He's fine. Professional wide receiver on a good team. But .... meh. You know? Meh. Whatevs, dude. It goes more to draft philosophy than anything, but for me, Boldin is what he is. Maybe less. With Crabtree there for the full year, the addition of Stevie Johnson, Vernon Davis ... does Boldin get 129 targets again? For comparison sake, the year before, Michael Crabtree got 127 targets playing all 16 games. Just feel like there's no upside here and in the 10th round, I'd rather take a flyer on a guy who could explode. Not literally, of course. Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright, Mike Wallace (this year's DeSean Jackson in Bill Lazor's offense?), Cecil Shorts are all going within 10 picks of Boldin and I'd much rather take a flier on any of them. Winners don't settle for guys like Anquan Boldin and you're a winner, kid. You just don't know it yet.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers (11th, 13th): Not part of the goal-line package (it's gonna be Cam and Tolbert), on the wrong side of 30, bad offensive line and part of a three-headed RBBX monster. Yet somehow going ahead of better-upside running backs such as Lamar Miller and Khiry Robinson. I like him. I just want him on your team, not mine. Is that wrong?

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Colts (12th, 14th): Remember when he used to be Hakeem Nicks? Sigh. (Side note: I swear! I don't hate the Colts! Promise!)

Eli Manning, QB, Giants (13th, Shouldn't be drafted: Nineteen different quarterbacks are being drafted in the first 14 rounds of at least 40 percent of ESPN.com leagues. There is absolutely no need for this. If you have a quarterback where you are concerned about health -- maybe RGIII, Cutler or Romo -- OK, fine. I can see grabbing a backup. But if you ever need to start Eli, your season has gone horribly, horribly wrong. He may have a decent matchup here or there but Eli -- or someone similar -- will always be available on your waiver wire. I'd rather use that roster spot on a running back or wide receiver with upside. This year, you can't have too many running backs.

And with that, Love Hate 2014 is in the books. Well, book. Not plural. And not even a book, because who reads books anymore. Other than "Fantasy Life," now in paperback with three new chapters. Ha! Snuck a plug in. You may be prepping for your draft but I am in midseason form, my Internet friend. Happy drafting.

HacheMan · Aug 17, 2014

[h=1]2014 Insider fantasy cheat sheet[/h][h=3]Everything you need -- in a single sheet -- to dominate your draft[/h]
By Fantasy Football Insiders

Picture this: It's draft day. You thought you had your next pick planned, but the team selecting in front of you snagged your guy. With time running out, you panic and select somebody -- but not the guy you wanted, and definitely not the guy who would have best helped your team.
This is where Insider's fantasy football draft cheat sheet comes in. More than just a list of the top players at every position (although it has that, too), it brings together all of the best analysis from Insider's fantasy experts to help win your league, including:
• Mel Kiper's top-rated rookies and sleeper targets
• KC Joyner's most undervalued and overvalued players at each position
• Eric Karabell's breakout picks at quarterback, running back and wide receiver
• Karabell's "Do not draft" list of guys he'll avoid selecting this season
• Field Yates on players who will benefit (or falter) following scheme changes
• Matt Williamson's list of players on the rise, and players on the decline
• Pro Football Focus writer Mike Clay's top 10 future fantasy football stars
• A printable, one-sheet PDF with all the information in one place
This file will be updated regularly from now through the start of the season, so you'll have the latest info and analysis no matter when you draft.
Here it is: Insider's fantasy football draft cheat sheet for the 2014 season.
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For more detailed analysis found in the original Insider article, click on the link for each section.
[h=3]Printable One-Sheet PDF[/h]
Player rankings: Top 300 | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | K | D/ST | Dynasty
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This year's rookie class is full of guys with fantasy value. Mel Kiper ranks the rookies with the biggest potential to make an immediate impact, and a few who could surprise.

Top 10 impact rookies
1. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans
2. Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints
3. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
4. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals
5. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants
6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers
7. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers
8. Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars
9. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
10. Jace Amaro, TE, Jets

Top 10 sleeper rookies
1. Davante Adams, WR, Packers
2. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings
3. Bruce Ellington, WR, 49ers
4. Tre Mason, RB, Rams
5. James White, RB, Patriots
6. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins
7. Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Bears
8. Andre Williams, RB, Giants
9. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
10. Cody Latimer, WR, Broncos

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There is always value to be found in your fantasy football draft. KC Joyner shows you how, with his articles on the players who are being drafted too high or too low in most leagues (based on their current average draft position).

Overvalued QBs
1. Peyton Manning (ADP: 5.6)
2. Matt Ryan (ADP: 85.3)
3. Johnny Manziel (ADP: 116.1)
4. Michael Vick (ADP: 136.1)

ADP = average draft position,
calculated based on data from ESPN standard fantasy football leagues

Undervalued QBs
1. Drew Brees (ADP: 14.1)
2. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 11.4)
3. Colin Kaepernick (ADP: 70.1)
4. Tony Romo (ADP: 99.4)
5. Philip Rivers (ADP: 104.6)
6. Jay Cutler (ADP: 113.4)
7. Carson Palmer (ADP: 136.9)

Overvalued RBs
1. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 1.8)
2. Doug Martin (ADP: 12.3)
3. Zac Stacy (ADP: 17.1)
4. Ben Tate (ADP: 38.7)
5. Knowshon Moreno (ADP: 89.3)

Undervalued RBs
1. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 2.7)
2. Matt Forte (ADP: 5.7)
3. Montee Ball (ADP: 24.5)
4. Andre Ellington (ADP: 48.3)
5. Chris Johnson (ADP: 53.2)
6. Darren Sproles (ADP: 96.8)

Overvalued WRs
1. Demaryius Thomas (ADP: 13.8)
2. A.J. Green (ADP: 16.3)
3. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 40.3)
4. Wes Welker (ADP: 48.4)
5. T.Y. Hilton (ADP: 62.7)
6. Julian Edelman (ADP: 72.0)
7. Riley Cooper (ADP: 89.3)

Undervalued WRs
1. Brandon Marshall (ADP: 20.8)
2. Julio Jones (ADP: 24.2)
3. Jordy Nelson (ADP: 26.9)
4. Victor Cruz (ADP: 48.2)
5. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: 76.5)
6. Marques Colston (ADP: 81.9)

Overvalued TEs
1. Julius Thomas (ADP: 35.6)
2. Jason Witten (ADP: 60.5)
3. Jordan Cameron (ADP: 66.8)
4. Martellus Bennett (ADP: 119.4)
5. Heath Miller (ADP: 138.2)

Undervalued TEs
1. Dennis Pitta (ADP: 93.1)
2. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: 102.2)
3. Ladarius Green (ADP: 142.0)
4. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (ADP: 170.0)

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Fantasy point production is a byproduct of both system and talent. This offseason, many players either switched teams or are adjusting to new schemes. Field Yates reveals the players whose fantasy production will be most positively and negatively affected by their new situations.

Positive scheme changes
1. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals
2. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
3. Toby Gerhart, RB, Jaguars
4. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Colts
5. Joique Bell, RB, Lions
6. Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys
7. Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens
8. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos
9. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins
10. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns

Negative scheme changes
1. Eric Decker, WR, Jets
2. James Jones, WR, Raiders
3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Dolphins
4. Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns
5. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
6. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
7. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions
8. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins
9. Chris Johnson, RB, Jets
10. Zac Stacy, RB, Rams

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PFF: Players' roles naturally change year to year. Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus looks at players whose snap counts rose in the final weeks of last season in identifying his top 10 rising fantasy stars for 2014.
Williamson: Insider NFL scout Matt Williamson gives his list of players who are set toimprove or fall off this season, based on what he's seen from them on tape.

Rising fantasy stars

1. Justin Hunter, WR, Titans
2. Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals
3. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals
4. Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Giants
5. Ladarius Green, TE, Chargers
6. Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Colts
7. Donald Brown, RB, Chargers
8. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings
9. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
10. Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders

Rising/Falling
Five on the rise
1. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
2. Joique Bell, RB, Lions
3. Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys
4. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns
5. Kenny Stills, WR, Saints

Five on the decline
1. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles
2. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers
3. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
4. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
5. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens

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Karabell: All fantasy owners have players they simply don't want to draft for their teams, and Eric Karabell is no different. Insider's fantasy guru reveals the players he won't be drafting for his teams this season. He also offers his breakout player picks at each position.

Do not draft

1. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
2. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
3. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
4. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins
5. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts
6. Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks
7. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Dolphins

Breakout QBs
Among top 20 picks
1. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
2. Jay Cutler, Bears
3. Josh McCown, Buccaneers

Best of the rest
1. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
2. EJ Manuel, Bills
3. Sam Bradford, Rams

Breakout RBs
Among top 40 picks
1. Montee Ball, Broncos
2. Ben Tate, Browns
3. Andre Ellington, Cardinals
4. Toby Gerhart, Jaguars

Best of the rest
1. Khiry Robinson, Saints
2. Lamar Miller, Dolphins
3. Latavius Murray, Raiders
4. Christine Michael, Seahawks
5. C.J. Anderson, Broncos
6. Bryce Brown, Bills
7. Marcus Lattimore, 49ers

Breakout WRs
Among top 40 picks
1. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
2. Michael Floyd, Cardinals
3. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos
4. Golden Tate, Lions
5. Terrance Williams, Cowboys
6. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Best of the rest
1. Justin Hunter, Titans
2. Aaron Dobson, Patriots
3. Tavon Austin, Rams
4. Andrew Hawkins, Browns
5. Markus Wheaton, Steelers
6. Kenny Stills, Saints

HacheMan · Aug 19, 2014

[h=1]Super-deep sleepers to watch[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

It's time to go deep. Super-deep.
Outside of deeper dynasty leagues, it's doubtful that any of the names I'm about to mention should be drafted. Instead, in redraft or shallow keeper leagues, these are names to file away.
Perhaps it'll take an injury to activate them. Maybe they'll become ready to assert themselves over a weak starter. But when a few of these names finally get bandied about by the mainstream public once the regular season begins, you'll remember them, and be ready to pounce.
Some will undoubtedly amount to nothing. I mean, I'm listing third- and fourth-stringers here. But if history is a guide, some of these men will turn into players, either this year or in the near future. Here's the list of all the people I've picked for this column. Many were duds, but some worked out swimmingly:
2008: Anthony Alridge, David Clowney, Will Franklin, Roy Hall, Tim Hightower, Jason Hill,Jalen Parmele, Antonio Pittman, Marcus Thomas, Mike Sims-Walker
2009: Andre Caldwell, Austin Collie, James Davis, Jermichael Finley, Arian Foster, Mike Goodson, Rashad Jennings, Marko Mitchell, Bernard Scott, Danny Ware
2010: Andre Brown, Deon Butler, Kareem Huggins, Chris Ivory, Jeremiah Johnson, Stevie Johnson, Legedu Naanee, Isaac Redman, Brian Robiskie, Keiland Williams
2011: Dezmon Briscoe, Delone Carter, Eric Decker, Jamie Harper, Kendall Hunter, Denarius Moore, Jordan Norwood, Julius Thomas, Johnny White, Damian Williams
2012: Bryce Brown, Jordan Cameron, Kellen Davis, Chris Givens, Alex Green, Lestar Jean,Jeremy Kerley, Mohamed Sanu, Michael Smith, Rod Streater
2013: Kenjon Barner, Michael Cox, Patrick Edwards, Andre Ellington, Jonas Gray, Jermaine Kearse, Quinton Patton, Aldrick Robinson, Khiry Robinson, Cierre Wood
Let's get to this year's edition of my Super-Deep Sleeper list:

Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans: The Texans shook up their backfield depth chart last week, releasing Andre Brown and Dennis Johnson and signing Ronnie Brown. Jonathan Grimes, who's gotten a cup of coffee with Houston in each of the past two seasons, looks like the leading candidate to back up Arian Foster, so at this point he's probably not a deep enough name for this list. Blue fills the bill. He was a sixth-rounder this May after failing to make a huge dent at LSU; he scored seven TDs on 78 carries as a sophomore but tore an ACL in '12 and backed up Jeremy Hill last year. At 6-foot-2 and 222 pounds, Blue isn't a burner, but he's explosive in space and shows good vision. I consider Foster a huge risk coming off back surgery. At the moment the assumption is that Grimes would be the next man in, but Blue could find himself in the mix.
Brandon Bostick, TE, Green Bay Packers: Bostick was last seen tweaking an ankle in the Pack's preseason game Aug. 16, and it's possible he won't be ready for Week 1, but the injury isn't expected to be long term. We all know Green Bay would love to find a passing-game weapon at the TE position, and of all their options -- Andrew Quarless and rookie Richard Rodgersamong them -- Bostick is the freak athlete. Of course, he's also got seven career regular-season catches and is no shoo-in to start, so keep your expectations in check. But if anyone is going to step ahead of the others and become what Jermichael Finley used to be forAaron Rodgers, I think it's Bostick.
John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals: Brown, a standout at Division II Pittsburg State, was a surprise third-rounder in this spring's draft. The diminutive (5-11, 179 pounds) Brown has 4.34 wheels and is a superior return man, so I assumed he'd be limited to special teams in 2014. But not so fast, my friend. Brown has reportedly lit up Cardinals camp, leading to speculation that he could eventually surpass Ted Ginn Jr. as the team's No. 3 WR. Of course, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are the current co-sheriffs in Arizona, and it would take an injury to one of them for anyone else to become a fantasy factor. But when you think of Brown, think T.Y. Hilton and DeSean Jackson. He's potentially that explosive.
Dontrelle Inman, WR, San Diego Chargers: Bear with me here. Inman is a two-year CFL veteran with size (6-3, 205 pounds) who popped on a 70-yard TD against the Dallas Cowboys early in the preseason. Obviously, we shouldn't get excited about what happens in the third quarter of games that don't count. What I'm interested in here is the Chargers' wideout depth chart. Keenan Allen is solid, but do we really expect Malcom Floyd to stay healthy? Vincent Brown has a calf injury and hasn't done much in camp. Eddie Royal is a slot machine. It wouldn't be a shock if San Diego -- as happened last year -- finds itself in need of warm bodies out wide. Inman might not even make the roster, but if he does, maybe he becomes a factor by November.

Jeff Janis, WR, Packers: Here's another case where a wideout will need an injury to sniff fantasy relevance. You may have heard of the lead WRs in Green Bay, Jordy Nelsonand Randall Cobb. But neither Jarrett Boykin nor Davante Adams has lit up Packers camp, while Janis -- a crazy athlete from Saginaw Valley State -- has opened eyes. His TD catch in Saturday's preseason game is just the tip of the iceberg: Janis has been a highlight machine throughout camp. No, he won't be the team's No. 3 man in Week 1. But don't sleep on the possibility that he fills in if and when someone gets hurt.
Charles Johnson, WR, Cleveland Browns: You may have heard that the Browns are looking for wideouts. The casting call in Cleveland has extended to Miles Austin, Andrew Hawkins, Nate Burleson, Anthony Armstrong, Marlon Moore and Johnson, an intriguing size/speed guy whom the Packers drafted in the seventh round in '13. He was released by the Pack and signed by the Browns, who discovered that Johnson had an undetected torn ACL. Now healthy again, he doesn't have an intimidating depth-chart climb ahead, and runs a 4.38 40 at 6-2 and 215 pounds. Is he Josh Gordon? Of course not. But he's the best athlete the Browns have at the position.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Nobody is wishing harm on Adrian Peterson. Heck, I'm not even sure that McKinnon, a third-round pick this spring, is AP's handcuff. (Matt Asiata is also in the mix.) But I know this: McKinnon is a great athlete. A top combine performer in the 40, broad jump, vertical jump, bench press and the shuttle drills, McKinnon has raw skill for days. What he doesn't have, however, is any pass-blocking experience, and that could limit his usefulness in '14. But if you get word that the Vikings are thinking of giving McKinnon some run, take notice. It could be a good sign.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, it was a pretty good year to draft wideouts. Moncrief was the 14th WR taken in May, but he's the kind of kid who could someday be an NFL team's clear No. 1. Prototypically big and fast, Moncrief's hands were up and down at Ole Miss and he's no lock to figure things out in year one, but apparently he's already bypassed Da'Rick Rogers and Griff Whalen on the Colts' depth chart. That leaves him behind T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne coming off a torn ACL and the mercurial Hakeem Nicks. It probably won't pop for Moncrief in '14, but if it does, it might pop big.

Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys: I was down on Randle after the '13 draft, and I'm not sold on his talent now, but his situation is intriguing. The Cowboys have one of the league's best offensive lines, and one of the league's least-durable starting backs. Randle isn't DeMarco Murray's pure handcuff, because Lance Dunbar is also in the mix. But Dunbar is four inches shorter and 15 pounds lighter than Randle, and has also proved fragile in his brief pro career. If Murray misses time, could Randle assume a between-the-tackles starting role? I think he could, and behind that line, that would be worth something in fantasy. Dunbar is already draftable in PPR leagues as a third-down receiving back. Randle should be undrafted, but watched, assuming he stays ahead of Ryan Williamsthroughout August.

Damien Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins: Williams went undrafted in May after getting booted from the Oklahoma Sooners for multiple team violations. But he's big (a thick, squat 222 pounds), fast (4.45 wheels) and showed quick feet during his two collegiate seasons. Clearly, he's an off-field risk, but on the field he's significantly more talented than many of the options on the Dolphins' cluttered depth chart. In the past I've mentioned Mike Gillislee and even the eventually released Jonas Gray as possible deep sleepers in Miami, but Williams outdoes them all. Lamar Miller is a flag player of mine, but I'm not a Knowshon Morenobeliever, and it would be no shock if Daniel Thomas gets released. Remember: If Moreno's knee issues recur, Williams could be a legit thumping complement to Miller.

HacheMan · Aug 19, 2014

[h=1]Flag-planted players for 2014[/h][h=3]Andre Ellington, Montee Ball, Rueben Randle have great draft-day value[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Ten names.
I have 10 chances to find greatness. Ten NFL skill-position players who will outperform current expectations. Ten men who will deliver the greatest draft-day value.
Welcome to my annual "Planting My Flag" column. Rather than succumb to the understandable temptation to rattle off a list of dozens of players with potential upside, and then point to that monstrous list as evidence of my sagacity, I get only 10 cracks at it. This column dates back to a radio interview I did seven years ago, when the host asked me to name a couple of favorite sleepers. I gave him about 20, and realized I had a problem.

So every year (in this column, anyway) discipline is my watchword. I'm allowed just 10 names. I'm not saying these guys will be the best at their respective positions. I just love their value relative to where they're being drafted in ESPN leagues. (I realize that other sites have different ranks, which might make these players look somewhat less tasty. ESPN is my home, so it's ESPN numbers I'll use.)
Here we go:
Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
Current ESPN ADP: 26th overall. My rank: 12th overall.
Ball's appendectomy may give you a buying opportunity. I'm just not worried about it. It's fair to wonder whether Ball's pass blocking has progressed to a point where he's trustworthy in front of Peyton Manning, but with Knowshon Moreno gone, Ball is going to get a ton of chances to prove himself. Yes, the AFC West has to face the rough-and-tumble defenses of the NFC West, which could cause Denver's offense to appear slower than the 2013 edition. But they'll still play fast and move the ball, and the Broncos' lead back should be a top-10 fantasy RB. Period. Rating: 4 Flags (out of 5).
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Current ESPN ADP: 55th overall. My rank: 36th overall.
The objection to Crabtree as a must-start fantasy option hinges on the Niners' offense. The team had the fewest pass attempts in the NFL last year, and the second-highest run/pass ratio (behind only the Seattle Seahawks). Does that make the margin of error for players like Crabtree and Percy Harvin smaller? It does. Does it scare me off them? It doesn't. I don't even bother looking at Crabtree's '13 film, because he was still recovering from a torn Achilles. When I go back and look at '12, I see a super-elite route-runner, one of the best in the game. Crabtree isn't going to pop the top off a defense, but he's open all the time. I'm willing to take a chance that the 49ers will run a more diverse playbook with Colin Kaepernick this year, and that Crabtree will benefit more than anyone. Rating: 3.5 Flags (out of 5).

Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Current ESPN ADP: 52nd overall. My rank: 31st overall.
I think Ellington is the first player to graduate from my "Super-Deep Sleeper" list to my Flag list in one season. I absolutely do not believe Bruce Arians when he says he's going to give Ellington 20-plus touches per game; it sounds like Stepfan Taylor is in line for short-yardage work overJonathan Dwyer, which could wind up limiting Ellington's TD total. But so what? Isn't that the same thing we expect from Giovani Bernard? In fact, Ellington and Bernard are strikingly similar players, yet Bernard is going 23 picks earlier in ESPN leagues. Each guy carries enough usage risk to keep them out of the RB top 10, but each is talented enough to dominate in a given week. Rating: 4.5 Flags (out of 5).
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Current ESPN ADP: 154th overall. My rank: 119th overall.
From Weeks 1 to 8 last year, Chip Kelly's offense used two-TE formations about 16 percent of the time, but Ertz improved late in the year and from Week 9 forward, that number jumped to 39 percent. Brent Celek proved he's ready to be a prime blocking TE, while Ertz scored five TDs in his final nine games, including the playoffs, and looks like a beastly red zone threat. He's my No. 12 TE, which puts him in the middle class at the position. He's a lovely high-upside target if you choose to wait at TE. Rating: 3.5 Flags (out of 5).
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Current ESPN ADP: 171st overall. My rank: 134th overall.
Consider this a vote against Steven Jackson. Coming off a season ruined by a right hamstring injury, Jackson pulled his left hammy early in camp and may miss the entire preseason. I know the Falcons have expressed reservations about Freeman in pass protection lately, but he came into the league with a reputation for being solid in that department, so I'm hoping the rookie will prove himself soon. And yes, Jacquizz Rodgersand Antone Smith played ahead of him Week 1 of the preseason, but please don't tell me you're ready to be fooled by either of those guys again. Freeman probably isn't a future true feature back, but he's a nice sleeper in all leagues, and not just a handcuff to Jackson.Rating: 2.5 Flags (out of 5).

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Current ESPN ADP: 65th overall. My rank: 44th overall.
Hilton has a lot of DeSean Jackson in him, which is why I ranked Hilton just three WR spots behind Jackson. Are these guys you feel great about as stable week-to-week producers? Probably not. But they're super-elite playmakers who'll go bananas five or six times per season. Match them with a steady No. 1 wideout, and you're onto something. Hilton is little dude who because of his speed is just unmanageable when he gets a defender's hands off of him. The Colts want to run, but Andrew Luck is continuing to develop toward greatness. He's going to use his best weapon. Rating: 3.5 Flags (out of 5).

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
Current ESPN ADP: 110th overall. My rank: 55th overall.
I admit I didn't love Miller's tape in '13. He's a sprinter who never seems to break anything big, with only four of 177 carries going for 20-plus yards. But part of the problem was now-departed coordinator Mike Sherman's dreadful calls, and part was that decimated Dolphins line. Mostly this flag pick is a contention that Miller should be drafted as if he's a starting NFL RB, because I think he is. Knowshon Moreno was awesome last season, but he's already coming off a knee scope, adding to his litany of lower-leg issues. If there's risk of a committee here, I think it's a relatively small one. Miller is no LeSean McCoy, but new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will seek to get him in space like he did Shady. At the very least, I expect Miller to double his career-high of 26 catches. Rating: 3 Flags (out of 5).
Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants
Current ESPN ADP: 167th overall. My rank: 108th overall.
Speaking of new offensive systems, the Giants are going West Coast. Eli Manning won't be asked to stand in overlong and get pummeled in exchange for deep shots; rather, we're going to see more quick hitters and timing plays that emphasize chemistry. To be honest, it's possible that that bodes poorly for Randle, who made many mental mistakes in '13. But what excites me here is that Randle possesses something the Giants' other WRs don't: size. And there's also no reliable TE on this roster. That should lead to red zone work. Randle may not eclipse 1,000 yards, but it would be no shock to see him threaten double-digit TDs. Rating: 4 Flags (out of 5).
Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee Titans
Current ESPN ADP: 79th overall. My rank: 53rd overall.
I'll admit this is a player on whom our ADP just seems way out of whack. On most other sites, the presumptive top rookie rusher is rated as a borderline top-50 entity. But if you're playing in an ESPN league and using ESPN ranks, there's value here. My hesitation ranking Sankey this spring was the thought that surely the Titans would go out and get someone other than Shonn Greene. And they got ... Dexter McCluster? In other words: I'm not exactly sure what Sankey is, but I know all his alternatives can't make it as big offensive pieces. Sankey is an explosive athlete who at least in theory should do everything better than Greene, save perhaps pass blocking. Do I buy Sankey as a must-start in 10-team leagues? Not quite. But you can get him as a fourth/fifth-rounder to supplement your superstars. You don't necessarily need him to be one. Rating: 3 Flags (out of 5).

Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ESPN ADP: 191st overall. My rank: 130th overall.
It's easy to forget the flavor of last year. Before there was Brandin Cooks coming out of Oregon State, there was Wheaton. He might not quite have Cooks' straight-ahead jets, but he's just about as quick. The Steelers will go Smurf outside, starting WRs who are borderline unchuckable at the line, and use Todd Haley's quick-hitting offense to get Wheaton and Antonio Brown in space. With the Steelers in '13, Emmanuel Sanders andJerricho Cotchery combined for 113 catches, 1,342 yards and 16 TDs, and now they're gone. Wheaton won't replace that production all by himself, but Pittsburgh believes he'll be the biggest replacement piece. I do, too. Rating: 2.5 Flags (out of 5).

HacheMan · Aug 20, 2014

[h=1]Updated sleepers, busts, breakouts[/h]
By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

Earlier in the preseason, a number of our ESPN fantasy analysts offered some of their sleepers, busts and breakouts for the 2014 fantasy football season. Now, after a couple full weeks of preseason games and a ton of practices, we have started to change our tune on some of our choices.

In some cases, injuries have knocked guys out of contention or opened up a spot on the depth chart for a sleeper or breakout guy to shine. In other cases, we have changed our minds based on practice reports or preseason games. And in other instances, a summer full of mock drafts has shown us that a player is either going way too early or way too late compared to our rankings.

No matter the reason, it's time make some adjustments.

For a refresher, here's how we're defining the terms:

Sleeper: Player likely not drafted as a starting option in ESPN standard leagues, according to the current ESPN fantasy rankings, but could end up being an every-week starting option or star by the end of the season.

Bust: Player considered a sure starting option in ESPN standard leagues, according to ESPN fantasy rankings, but will not live up to expectations or draft-day value.

Breakout player: Player who could finish in the top five at his position but isn't currently ranked there, according to ESPN fantasy rankings. They could be very low-ranked players or players sitting in the top 10 at their position.

Our panel consists of Matthew Berry, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Ken Daube, Brian Gramling, Christopher Harris, KC Joyner, Eric Karabell, Tim Kavanagh, Keith Lipscomb, Jim McCormick, James Quintong, Matt Williamson and Field Yates.

The original list (including plenty of explanations for picks) is here. The names highlighted in bold are new compared to the original list. Plus, some of our analysts have provided more write-ups to explain some of their picks.

Sleepers | Busts | Breakouts

Sleepers
Sleepers
Analyst QB RB WR TE
Berry Johnny Manziel Andre Williams Andrew Hawkins Ladarius Green
Cockcroft Jay Cutler Khiry Robinson Justin Hunter Ladarius Green
Daube Jay Cutler Stevan Ridley Hakeem Nicks Ladarius Green
Gramling EJ Manuel Khiry Robinson DeAndre Hopkins Jace Amaro
Harris Philip Rivers Khiry Robinson Danny Amendola Zach Ertz
Joyner Jay Cutler Bryce Brown Kenny Stills Ladarius Green
Karabell Ryan Tannehill Khiry Robinson Terrance Williams Ladarius Green
Kavanagh Jake Locker Latavius Murray Brandin Cooks Ladarius Green
Lipscomb Jay Cutler Carlos Hyde Cecil Shorts Travis Kelce
McCormick Carson Palmer Jonathan Stewart Markus Wheaton Tyler Eifert
Quintong EJ Manuel Carlos Hyde Terrance Williams Ladarius Green
Williamson Ryan Tannehill Mark Ingram Terrance Williams Travis Kelce
Yates Jay Cutler Tre Mason Miles Austin Zach Ertz
Miles Austin, WR, Cleveland Browns: Someone has to catch passes in Cleveland, and word out of Berea, Ohio, is that Austin is starting to look like the wide receiver we knew before hamstring and other issues bothered him in Dallas. Especially if Josh Gordon's suspension turns out to be a full year, Austin has value. --Field Yates

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles:The Eagles didn't lean as heavily on two-tight end sets in 2013 as I expect them to this season, and Ertz could end up passing Brent Celek as the leader at the position in terms of production. Watch out for the former second-round pick. --Field Yates
Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers: This is about a strong belief in Hyde's skill set as well as being a year ahead of the curve on Frank Gore. After all, let's face it, Gore is showing few signs of slowing down, at least in terms of durability (hasn't missed a game since 2010). As Gore enters his age-31 season, I'm willing to spend a mid-to-late-round pick on Hyde as someone who can take advantage of the touches he receives in a run-heavy 49ers attack. When looking for sleepers, I think about players who are talented enough to put up big numbers if given the chance. To me, among players who enter the season as clear backups, Hyde is the most talented and would be a huge fantasy threat if given a starter's workload regularly. --Keith Lipscomb
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: Anthony Fasano is the expected starter at tight end, but I expect Andy Reid and Doug Pederson to use plenty of two-tight end sets in an effort to create mismatches that will take advantage of Kelce's impressive athleticism. Reid's teams have often fed the tight end in the past -- think Celek and L.J. Smith -- and Kelce has the ability to get downfield and do enough damage to make him worth a late-round selection, especially in deeper leagues. The ceiling is high, but the floor is basement-level because we're talking about a player still waiting for his first NFL catch. --Keith Lipscomb
Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints: Brandin Cooks is understandably getting a ton of attention, but let's not forget how great Stills was last year. His 13.4 yards per attempt ranked first in the league among qualifying wide receivers, and he placed third in vertical YPA (17.5 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and second in stretch vertical YPA (23.9 on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield). Stills had only 51 targets last year yet scored 88 fantasy points (ranked 48th). His move up the depth chart into a starting role could double his target volume, and if his YPA numbers stay anywhere near where they were last year, his fantasy point total will move into WR2 territory or higher. --KC Joyner
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins: I'm actually buying into the new Dolphins offensive system with Bill Lazor running it, and if Nick Foles can be a statistical star, so can the strong-armed Tannehill. He has weapons and a better offensive line, and it's not as though he was an embarrassment before. Only 11 quarterbacks threw more TD passes. --Eric Karabell
Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: After redshirting as a rookie, Wheaton is slotted to take a significant share of the available work. Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery take with them 113 receptions, 188 targets, 16 TDs and 1,342 yards from last year's passing game. Wheaton will have every chance to succeed in a receiver-friendly scheme. --Jim McCormick
[h=3]Busts[/h][h=4]Busts[/h]

Analyst	QB	RB	WR	TE
Berry	Russell Wilson	Reggie Bush	DeSean Jackson	Vernon Davis
Cockcroft	Nick Foles	Frank Gore	Wes Welker	Rob Gronkowski
Daube	Robert Griffin III	Montee Ball	Cordarrelle Patterson	Julius Thomas
Gramling	Cam Newton	Ryan Mathews	DeSean Jackson	Dennis Pitta
Harris	Nick Foles	Chris Johnson	Wes Welker	Martellus Bennett
Joyner	Peyton Manning	Doug Martin	Demaryius Thomas	Jordan Reed
Karabell	Nick Foles	Doug Martin	Percy Harvin	Kyle Rudolph
Kavanagh	Tony Romo	Zac Stacy	Vincent Jackson	Kyle Rudolph
Lipscomb	Cam Newton	Marshawn Lynch	DeSean Jackson	Vernon Davis
McCormick	Cam Newton	C.J. Spiller	Wes Welker	Kyle Rudolph
Quintong	Cam Newton	Zac Stacy	Randall Cobb	Rob Gronkowski
Williamson	Cam Newton	Doug Martin	Wes Welker	Jordan Cameron
Yates	Nick Foles	Ryan Mathews	Julian Edelman	Vernon Davis

Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos: One of the most dangerous ways to project a player's value is to assume a job is completely owned by someone without ever seeing that be the case. There are two major factors working against Ball that people aren't accounting for: John Fox's propensity to use a running-back-by-committee approach and, more important in my opinion, that Ball isn't as good in pass protection as Ronnie Hillman or C.J. Anderson. Before you think that you shouldn't worry about Hillman or Anderson stealing Ball's projected workload, remember how you felt about Knowshon Moreno last year. --Ken Daube
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers: It's not that I don't like Davis but rather think that scoring a TD every four times you touch the ball is hard to repeat. Once Michael Crabtreereturned last season, Davis totaled just 19 catches in eight games, including the playoffs. Crabtree will be there from the beginning this season, along with new addition Stevie Johnson, so on a team that threw the fewest passes in the NFL in 2013, I'm concerned that Davis' fantasy value is tied to his touchdowns and that he will be too inconsistent on a weekly basis. I have him in the tier that includes Jordan Cameron, Jason Witten, Dennis Pitta and Greg Olsen, but in every mock I've been in he's gone well before I would consider taking him. --Keith Lipscomb
Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: The innovating, productive system in Philly remains, but it's simply illogical to expect Foles to keep his interception total so low again. Regression is inevitable. Don't expect total failure, but the wide receiver crew has question marks. Investing a top-50 pick is risky. --Eric Karabell
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: People are too eager to forget that, before getting hurt last season, Martin was disappointing statistically, hardly the top-five pick he was expected to be. The Buccaneers claim they plan to keep Martin's touches in check, and the offensive line could be a major problem. This is not a top-10 running back. --Eric Karabell
[h=3]Breakouts[/h][h=4]Breakouts[/h]

Analyst	Player
Berry	Jay Cutler
Cockcroft	Trent Richardson
Daube	Roddy White
Gramling	Jeremy Maclin
Harris	Montee Ball
Joyner	Andre Ellington
Karabell	Montee Ball
Kavanagh	Giovani Bernard
Lipscomb	Montee Ball
McCormick	Montee Ball
Quintong	Cordarrelle Patterson
Williamson	Michael Floyd
Yates	Roddy White

Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: Bernard displayed feature back capabilities in his rookie season -- in the mold of LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles as opposed to an old-school grinder -- and should get more touches this season, despite the presence of second-round pick Jeremy Hill. Bernard had 149 points on 226 touches last season, and eclipsing 200 points is not out of the question with an increased workload in 2014. --Tim Kavanagh

HacheMan · Aug 20, 2014

[h=1]Top bounce-back candidates[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Jim McCormick[/FONT] | Special to ESPN.com

The crew on the Fantasy Focus Football podcast can often be heard saying, "The hate has gone too far," when discussing a player the market has soured on -- too harshly in its opinion -- for whatever variety of reasons. In this piece, we're looking into players previously considered top commodities at their positions that, after disappointing 2013 seasons, have seen their stock deflated heading into 2014. The core question being, has the "hate gone too far" with some of these fallen stars? Who is due to bounce back?
Investors must determine whether an underwhelming campaign is an outlier in an otherwise positive series of seasons or a foreboding trend of things to come. Are the wheels coming off, or was it just a momentary flat that influenced the dip in production?
We'll begin this investigation behind center with Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan, who finished 14th in ESPN standard scoring at the position last season.
The case for Matt Ryan (and Roddy White)
Missing two of his three best targets for a portion of the season resulted in an 18 percent dip in fantasy production from 2012 (291 points) to 2013 (239) for Ryan. The table below details the production dependency we've seen from Ryan to his top three targets over the past three seasons, or since Julio Jones came to the Falcons.
[h=3]Matt Ryan production breakdown (2011-13)[/h]

Receiver	Games	Targets	Ryan FPTS	FPTS/Target	Pass TD
Julio Jones	34	271	159	0.59	20
Tony Gonzalez	48	354	156	0.44	23
Roddy White	45	402	158	0.39	18
All others	48	743	255	0.34	26

Since 2011, the conversion rate for quarterbacks is 23.1 attempts per touchdown pass. Ryan registered a subpar 25 attempts per TD in 2013 after posting a healthy 19.7 rate from 2010 to 2012. If Ryan converted his 651 passing attempts last season at his 2010-12 clip, he would have posted 33 touchdowns (and ranked fourth among QBs in fantasy points, one point behind Cam Newton). Had Ryan's star receivers been healthy, it's entirely conceivable for that 19.6 att/TD rate to have been achieved.
Ryan's per-target fantasy point production (0.59) to Jones since 2011 compares favorably to other special connections, such as Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson (0.55) and Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall (0.44). Forgiving his injury-plagued 2013, White posted the second-most fantasy points among receivers from 2010 to 2012 in both standard and PPR scoring. Jones is appropriately priced as an elite commodity, but White is going off the board as the 19th wide receiver in ESPN live drafts, pick No. 51 on average. Just like his QB, there is bounce-back profit written all over White this season.
Ryan ranks fifth in QBR since 2010, fourth in yardage and fantasy points, sixth in touchdowns and, arguably most importantly, second in pass attempts. The Falcons passed the ball 56 percent of the time in 2011, 62 percent in 2012 and a league-high 67 percent in 2013. Even with these positive production trends, Ryan simply isn't an exciting commodity to investors. You can find him as late as the ninth or 10th round, as Ryan is going as the 12th QB in ESPN live drafts at pick 88.6 overall on average.
Finding value isn't difficult at quarterback this season, but I would argue that Ryan is the premier value of all these capable quarterbacks past the top trio of arms, even despite losing the trusty Tony Gonzalez. We basically just witnessed Ryan's statistical floor in 2013, and I would argue we have yet to see him hit his production ceiling. At the helm of one of the league's pass-heaviest offenses, with a duo of superstar wideouts, Ryan is reasonably capable of producing a top-five season at the position simply by returning to his 2010-12 att/TD clip while meeting our realistic projection of 627 attempts.

The case for Victor Cruz
Only Peyton Manning and Colin Kaepernick outscored Cruz in Week 1 last season. And then the rest of the season happened. After a three-salsa-dance debut, the New York Giants wide receiver was tied with Brandon LaFellfor 44th among wide receivers in standard points the rest of the way. It was an ugly season for Cruz and his investors alike. Thanks to the down season, Cruz is currently going 18th among WRs in ESPN live drafts, at pick 47.3 overall.
New Giants offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo is installing a receiver-friendly West Coast scheme ported over from Green Bay, one that plans to feature Cruz from the slot as well as out wide. "I do see myself as a Randall Cobb," Cruz told the New York Daily News earlier this offseason. "I'm excited to be all over the field this year."
A higher-volume role would be welcomed, especially since Cruz has always been a big-play and big-game producer. Since 2011, Cruz has posted double-digit fantasy points in 43 percent of his games, with 19.5 percent of his outings topping 20 fantasy points. In that same span, only Calvin Johnson (15) has more games with at least 20 standard fantasy points than Cruz's nine. Also in the past three seasons, only Johnson (18) and Brandon Marshall (13) have more outings than Cruz (12) that include at least 100 receiving yards and a touchdown registered. Cruz was already somewhat of a boom-or-bust fantasy producer given the nature of his bunched scoring history, and last season we likely witnessed the worst case of his scoring pattern given Eli Manning's awful season.
A positive correction is on the way for Manning and the Giants' passing personnel in general. Despite a historically bad 2013 season, the larger sample suggests Manning at least returns to league-average play. Manning finished in the top 10 in passing scores each year from 2009 to 2012 and averaged more than 28 passing touchdowns. He posted an above-league-average 19.2 att/TD in that span before falling all the way to a lowly 30.6 att/TD last season. Even just a return to a league-average att/TD conversion range would propel better seasons from Manning's targets, namely Cruz.
The case for Heath Miller
You might not remember it, and you might not believe it, but Pittsburgh Steelers TE Miller scored the fourth-most standard fantasy points at the position in 2012. It's true, though: Miller posted 71 receptions, 816 yards and 8 TDs that season.
Coming off an ACL injury suffered late in that stellar 2012 campaign, Miller was an afterthought in leagues last season. Despite scoring just once in 2013, some underlying metrics, such as a stellar 74.4 percent reception rate and career-high 30.8 routes per game, suggest Miller remains an important target for Ben Roethlisberger.
[h=3]Ben Roethlisberger attempts to current Steelers (2011-13)[/h]

Player	Attempts	Comp. Pct.	Yds/Att	Pass TD
Antonio Brown	373	63.5	8.7	15
Heath Miller	230	72.2	8.0	10
Le'Veon Bell	63	71.4	6.6	0
Markus Wheaton	12	50.0	5.3	0

[h=3]Targets inside 10-yd line, current Steelers (2011-13)[/h]

Player	Comp-Att	Comp. Pct.	TD
H. Miller	11-21	52.4	8
A. Brown	6-13	46.2	4
L. Bell	2-3	66.7	0

Roethlisberger's red zone chemistry with Miller is also worthy of mention, as 19 of the quarterback's 40 passing attempts inside the 10 last season -- including 11 of his 14 touchdowns from that distance -- went to departed targets Emmanuel Sanders (10 targets, 5 TDs) and Jerricho Cotchery (9 targets, six TDs). Sanders and Cotchery take with them 113 receptions, 188 targets and 1,342 yards from last year's passing game.
Despite Miller receiving basically zero fantasy hype heading into the season (ADP 15th among TEs, at pick 134.8 on average), a return to top-10 fantasy production at the position, and arguably higher, could be on the way given this valuable void in the passing game and a proven rapport with Roethlisberger.

HacheMan · Aug 20, 2014

[h=1]My must-have players for 2014[/h][h=3]Eddie Lacy among six high-value playmakers to target in fantasy drafts[/h]
By Tim Hasselbeck | ESPN Insider

As I continue to make my preparations for the 2014 fantasy football season, a number of players stick out as guys I definitely want on my team, while there are others I'm definitely going to avoid.
For the first group, this isn't to say I'll be drafting any of these players with my first pick, but the value I have on them is higher than where they've been going in ESPN.com drafts so far, according to average draft position (ADP).
I'm not going to say you'll win your fantasy league if you land all these players -- again, the value matters -- but here are six fantasy players I'll be targeting, based on what I've seen on film, what I've heard from players, coaches and executives, and the experience I've gained playing both in the NFL and in fantasy football leagues.
Note that players are arranged in order of ADP as of Aug. 20, and the 2013 point totals are based on ESPN.com standard scoring.
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Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 8.9
2013 points: 198
Think back to this time a year ago. That infamous picture in which Lacy looked overweight went out on Twitter, and everyone freaked out because they thought the guy was too lazy to get in shape for his first NFL season. Things have certainly changed in 12 months.
I was an early passenger on the Lacy bandwagon, and even though he really only started playing a full role in Week 5, he ended up as the No. 6 RB in fantasy in 2013. In 10 of his final 13 games (from Week 5 onward), he had 20 or more carries; the Pack aren't going to change that plan this season, even though Aaron Rodgers is back. They want to run the ball, and they know they can have success doing it with Lacy.
In the first round, I'm hoping someone else takes a non-running back so Lacy drops to me. I'd take Lacy over fellow RB Marshawn Lynch or top WR Calvin Johnson, both of whom are going ahead of him right now.

Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 11.4
2013 points: 211
I know, I'm really stepping out on a limb here. But Graham was far and away the best tight end in fantasy football this past season -- his 211 points were 55 better than the total of the second-best fantasy TE, Vernon Davis. Every week, there's going to be that drop-off, based partly on the fact that Graham is a TE in name only; the Saints use him like a big wide receiver, and no other TE really does that, from what I've seen.
Now is the time when the Rob Gronkowski fans come forward in his defense. Here's the reality for Gronk: It's been shortened season after shortened season recently, and if you look at the preseason and practice footage of the Patriots, he looks like Robocop out there. Not only that, but also, because of the NFL rules on high hits, defensive backs are going to be hitting Gronk low, and that will be a big challenge for him physically and mentally.
There are only two non-running backs I'd take in the first round this season: Peyton Manning and Graham (not Calvin Johnson).

Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
ADP: 28.4
2013 points: 80
Although this is about Ball, let's think back to the lesson we learned fromKnowshon Moreno. Before Manning got to Denver, Moreno was on his way to being a first-round bust, and the first season with Peyton looked like another bad one for Moreno. But in 2013 he was a top-five fantasy RB. Did Moreno suddenly become a great running back? Not based on what I saw: He's neither fast nor quick, and he rarely makes the first defender miss.
Ball, on the other hand, possesses all of those traits; he's a significant upgrade across the board for Denver, and if Moreno was a top-five RB, it's not crazy to think Ball has that kind of potential if everything goes right.
Ball is going late in the third round, about a full round after Zac Stacy and in the same neighborhood as Reggie Bush. I've got him way ahead of that value.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 70.4
2013 points: 132
Hilton is another guy whom I liked quite a bit in 2013, and I still think he's being taken too low. In my view, Hilton is the Colts' second-best offensive player behind Andrew Luck.
I get the arguments against him. He's not a huge guy, and in theory he could get pushed around by the new brand of NFL corners. However, that wasn't a problem against the monsters in the Seattle Seahawks secondary in Week 5: Hilton had five catches for 140 yards and two scores, and Richard Sherman couldn't wait for that game to be over.
With the return of Dwayne Allen and Reggie Wayne (and continued development of Coby Fleener), the Colts shouldn't have trouble getting Hilton open. Given where he's being picked -- the end of Round 7 -- you can draft him after you've already picked most of your starting lineup. He might start the season as your flex, but he has the potential to be a starting wide receiver down the stretch.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 88.6
2013 points: 239
Quarterback is pretty deep this season, and one of the reasons I'm waiting to take one is because of signal-callers such as Ryan. A lot of things went wrong for Ryan in 2013 -- including injury problems for his wideouts and starting running back -- yet he still completed 67.4 percent of his passes, threw for more than 4,500 yards and tossed 26 touchdowns.
There are three reasons I like Ryan this season: (1) He's getting Julio Jones -- one of the top WRs in the game -- back (as well as a healthy Roddy White, after he was banged up all year); (2) the Falcons' coaches understand where they are at the RB position, and they intend to throw; (3) the Falcons invested in the O-line this offseason with the No. 6 overall pick (Jake Matthews) and free agency (Jon Asamoah).
I get that some people might not think Ryan is a very exciting pick, and I get why "running" QBs are being taken ahead of him. But even in a down year for Ryan in 2013, his scoring total wasn't too far from Colin Kaepernick's, and Ryan can be drafted much later, which allows you to get better RBs and WRs before QB.

Steve Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 119.6
2013 points: 94
Joe Flacco missed Anquan Boldin in 2013. Boldin is a player who can get open on any route and will fight as hard as anyone to make a catch when he is in traffic. Smith will jump into that role for Flacco, and he's quicker in his cuts, has a faster top gear and has the ability to make those same kinds of plays down the field.
Flacco's best attribute as a passer is his deep ball, and Smith is a great fit if the Ravens want to feature that more often. Now defenses will have to account for both Steve andTorrey Smith. With Gary Kubiak running the offense, sure, they'll want to run the ball and use the tight ends. But they'll also open up play-action down the field for Smith.
Right now, Smith is being taken after the likes of Eric Decker and Danny Amendola; that's the same Amendola who produced five or fewer fantasy points for his owners in 12 weeks of 2013. For as late as Smith is going, he's worth a shot.

HacheMan · Aug 21, 2014

[h=1]Ten lists to check before you draft[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] | ESPN.com

f I've learned one thing about the Internet, it's that the people, they love the lists. So back with our yearly tradition, here are 10 lists. Of 10.

[h=3]List One: 10 things you should have changed your mind about over the course of the preseason[/h]1. That Terrance West is going to hamperBen Tate's fantasy value. Tate is still an injury risk, and I like West's talent should anything happen to Tate, but as long as he is healthy, Tate will be more of a workhorse than initially thought.
2. That the Cardinals' defense should be feared and/or drafted. Decimated by injuries, this is no longer a team I would be concerned with my players facing. And they certainly shouldn't be drafted as high as they are (fifth among defenses). I won't have them in my top 10.
3. That Sammy Watkins is the first rookie wide receiver you should draft. Watkins' getting banged up, EJ Manuel being the one throwing him the ball and the emergence ofBrandin Cooks in New Orleans put Watkins as my No. 2 rookie wideout this year.
4. That Ray Rice is done. Think he looks good, think the offensive line looks good and love his current ADP, in the sixth round.
5. That Robert Griffin III is a good bet to have a huge season. I still love him as a player and as a fantasy QB this season -- I stand by my statement that if he plays all 16 games, he is top-5 -- but that preseason game against Cleveland definitely gave me pause about his prospects of playing those 16 games. Slide, Robert! For the love of all that is good and pure in this world, slide! If you draft RG III, you need a backup.
6. That Hakeem Nicks is done. I still don't want him for fantasy, but he'll be relevant enough to be a pain for T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne owners.
7. That Michael Crabtree is a WR3. His current ADP puts him at 21st among wideouts and going in the sixth round. Have always loved his talent, but concerns over focus of San Francisco's offense and additions of Stevie Johnson are overblown. The guy is fully healthy and ready to have a top-15 season, with a legit shot to creep into the top 10.
8. That Jeremy Hill will cut into Giovani Bernard's production. I've no doubt that Hill will get some work, but five of Bernard's rushing touchdowns last year came from inside an opponent's 10-yard line. Gio is going to get the ball early and often. He's going to get the ball in space and between the tackles. He's the guy.
9. That Josh Gordon is undraftable this year. Realize this might truly blow up in my face as early as five seconds after this column is published, but -- total gut call here -- I think Gordon plays this year. How much and when, no idea, but I feel like they make some sort of deal and he's not out for the entire year. Based on upside alone, very much worth a flier in the 10th round or later.
10. That Cam Newton won't have anyone to throw to. Kelvin Benjamin has been better than advertised, and while I don't think anyone is going to mistake the Panthers' receiving corps for the Falcons, Packers or Bears, they are at least as good a group as they had last year, when Cam was once again a top-5 fantasy quarterback.
[h=3]List Two: 10 guys who show up the most on my rosters this year when I draft or mock-draft.[/h]1. Montee Ball, Broncos
2. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
3. Jordy Nelson, Packers
4. Andre Ellington, Cardinals
5. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
6. Rashad Jennings, Giants
7. Pierre Thomas, Saints
8. Kendall Wright, Titans
9. Jordan Reed, Washington, or Zach Ertz, Eagles
10. Jay Cutler, Bears
[h=3]List Three: 10 players who will benefit the most from coaching changes.[/h]
1. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings. A perfect fit for Norv Turner's vertical offense. Applies to Kyle Rudolph andAdrian Peterson, too.
2. Dennis Pitta, Ravens. According to the research done by my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft, the tight end in Gary Kubiak's offense tends to do pretty well.
3. Matthew Stafford, Lions. Joe Lombardi gets a lot of credit for helping take Drew Brees' game to its current lofty heights, and I expect the same for Stafford, who will clean up the footwork, mechanics and turnovers that have plagued him in the past. Adding Golden Tate doesn't hurt, either.
4. Victor Cruz, Giants. A lot of quick slants and yards after the catch coming in Ben McAdoo's offense.
5. Lance Dunbar, Cowboys. Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray and Terrance Williamsalso benefit from Scott Linehan's game plan of throwing it all over the place, but Dunbar goes from undraftable in standard leagues to potentially this year's Joique Bell in deeper PPR leagues, although without the goal-line carries.
6. Robert Griffin III, Washington. Jay Gruden will make his team throw, throw, throw. Adding DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts plus a full year of a healthy Jordan Reed shouldn't be ignored, either.
7. Mike Wallace, Dolphins. Going to play the DeSean Jackson role in Bill Lazor's "Eagles South" offense.
8. Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, Titans. Ken Whisenhunt made Eddie Royal fantasy-relevant for a month or so last year. I repeat: Eddie Royal. He'll improve the entire Titans offense, but these two are the main beneficiaries.
9. Ben Tate, Browns. Now gets to be a full-time back in Kyle Shanahan's one-cut zone-blocking scheme, the same one he ran so well in Houston.
10. Bobby Rainey and Mike James, Buccaneers. Getting Jeff Tedford as their offensive coordinator means they have a shot to see the field even if Doug Martin is fully healthy. Tedford wants multiple backs to handle the ball, and while they don't love these guys as much as they loved Charles Sims, they don't believe that Martin (or any running back) should handle the load full time.
[h=3]List Four: 10 best fantasy team names (that I can print) that were suggested to me on Twitter.[/h]A lot of team names turn out to be puns on players' names (and often about players who will never actually be on a fantasy roster), so I try to set the bar high for those. There are definitely some name-based team names in here, but I also tried to include more names that I just like. For what it's worth, Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert and Rob Gronkowski were among the more popular inspiration for team names, some of which did make the cut.
1. Follow me on Instagraham - @crushlikegrape
2. I am Gronk - Many "Guardians of the Galaxy" fans.
3. Leather & Lacy - Many more Stevie Nicks fans than I would have thought.
4. Kenny Stills Nash & Young - @the_real_fugly
5. Kelce Lately - @juxdux
6. Cow Tipping Mafia - @briansigmon
7. This is gonna Ertz - @p_runyon
8. Ladies & Edelman - @jaredramos22
9. Swoons over My Sammy - @juxdux
10. Kaepernet Sauvignon - Mack. (Like I said, names -- and handles -- I can print.)
[h=3]List Five: 10 leftover facts from my '100 Facts' column[/h]1. Since Andrew Luck came into the league, only Cam Newton has more rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. He's sixth in rushing yards among QBs and has three more red zone rushing attempts than ... RG III.
2. While Gary Kubiak was running the Texans, they had the 12th-most rushing attempts per game in the NFL, and while he was with the Broncos, Denver had the most rushing plays in the league.
3. Two years ago, playing opposite a healthy Julio Jones, an also-healthy Roddy White had seven different games of fewer than 70 yards with no touchdowns.
4. Stole this from Rotoworld writer Adam Levitan: In preseason and NFL games, Justin Hunter has caught a total of 30 balls. Eight of them have gone for touchdowns.
5. Only two players in the NFL had more red zone targets last season than ... Wes Welker. He had 23, the same as Eric Decker. Who is now with the Jets.
6. Only three running backs had more rushing yards after contact than ... Matt Forte.
7. Among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, no running back had a better yards-after-contact average than ... Donald Brown.
8. Last year, Jamaal Charles had 672 yards after the catch, the second-most YAC among players in the NFL. Pierre Thomas had 671.
9. There was only one wide receiver in the NFL last year to be top-four in targets, yards and receptions: Antonio Brown.
10. From Week 13 to Week 17 last season -- the weeks Michael Crabtree played -- Colin Kaepernick had the fifth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks, averaging just 1.8 points per game fewer than Drew Brees. From Week 13 until the NFC Championship Game, Kaepernick averaged 18.50 fantasy points per game, which would have been fourth-highest last season. Or half a point better than Aaron Rodgers' per-game average. Only Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Nick Foles averaged more per game.
[h=3]List Six: 10 OBPTNWLBWHYWYL[/h]
As introduced in "[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Love/Hate[/FONT]," these are Old Boring Players That Nobody Will Like But Will Help You Win Your League.1. Roddy White*
2. Steven Jackson, Falcons
3. Reggie Wayne, Colts
4. Marques Colston, Saints
5. Fred Jackson, Bills
6. Donald Brown, Chargers
7. Carson Palmer, Cardinals**
8. Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts
9. Greg Jennings, Vikings***
10. Matthew Berry
* I know, I gave a bad stat on him above. He's not a No. 1. But as a low-end No. 2 going in the sixth?
**As a backup quarterback.
***As long as Matt Cassel is the QB.
[h=3]List Seven: More team names.[/h]1. Control + Alt + Delete - @seanbannon5
2. The Hipster Llamas - @casl1976
3. Do what I do not what I Irsay - @moochaud
4. Casual Champs - @zachman285
5. Turn down for Watt - many
6. Kelvin & Cobbs - @zach_shaheen
7. Springtime for Cutler - @tacosmodernlife
8. The Walking Dez - @vincentcampbvin
9. Brees-ure suit Larry - @altequila
10. Bed, Bath and Ebron - @emmitt_smith30
[h=3]List Eight: 10 players with significantly higher values in PPR formats[/h]1. Antonio Brown, Steelers. A legit WR1 in PPR.
2. Giovani Bernard, Bengals. A legit RB1 in PPR.
3. Reggie Bush, Lions. Only in PPR do I consider him an equal to Joique Bell.
4. Andre Ellington, Cardinals. Monster year coming.
5. Shane Vereen, Patriots. On 16-game pace for 126 targets last year.
6. Rashad Jennings, Giants. A nice pass-catcher for Eli Manning, who is going to be Lord of the Dump-Off this year.
7. Pierre Thomas, Saints. Caught 77 balls last year. Meanwhile, Darren Sproles and his 89 targets are now in Philly.
8. Kendall Wright, Titans. If Ken Whisenhunt can make Eddie Royal somewhat fantasy-relevant from the slot, imagine what he can do with Wright.
9. Dexter McCluster, Titans. He has dual eligibility at running back and wide receiver in ESPN standard leagues. Going to have the Danny Woodhead role in Whisenhunt's offense.
10. Danny Woodhead, Chargers. Speaking of Woodhead, did you know he was a top-12 running back in PPR leagues last year?
[h=3]List Nine: 10 rookies ranked in the order I would draft them in a dynasty league.[/h]
In other words, this is how I'd rank them if I were more concerned about their entire career than their playing time this year.
1. Sammy Watkins, Bills
2. Brandin Cooks, Saints
3. Mike Evans, Buccaneers
4. Carlos Hyde, 49ers
5. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers
6. Johnny Manziel, Browns
7. Odell Beckham, Giants
8. Andre Williams, Giants
9. Devonta Freeman, Falcons
10. Bishop Sankey, Titans; Eric Ebron, Lions; Terrance West, Browns; Blake Bortles, Jaguars;Jordan Matthews, Eagles; Cody Latimer, Broncos; Marqise Lee, Jaguars; Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings; Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Buccaneers; Jace Amaro, Jets; Davante Adams, Packers; Tre Mason, Rams; Jeremy Hill, Bengals;James White; Patriots; Bruce Ellington, 49ers.
[h=3]List 10: Even more fantasy football team names.[/h]Golly, must be a lot of IDP leagues out there. Many team names using Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in some form or fashion. By the way, if you want to see more, you can search #tmrteamname on Twitter. Thanks for making that hashtag trend!
1. U Madden or Naw? - @weezydachamp
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Bortles and 99 Bortles of Beer - many
3. Heavy Pettine - @andythebearded
4. The Full Montee - many
5. Dumpster Fire (It was a rough year) - @D_King22
6. The Farmer in Odell - @relativelyfunny
7. Better than a Manning rap - @pigskinplayers
8. This team looked better on Madden - @BUCN_Jeep
9. CordarElle McPherson, supermodel - @Bruvydsb10
10. Matthew Berry-ing you. - @lopez8687

HacheMan · Aug 24, 2014

[h=1]Marshawn Lynch not getting his due[/h][h=3]Despite his strong 3-year run in Seattle, fantasy owners are under-drafting Lynch[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

For a player who finished fourth at his position in fantasy points last season (224),Marshawn Lynch isn't garnering nearly enough credit this draft season.
Yes, he's the No. 6 player being selected thus far in terms of ESPN's ADP. That said, no member of the ADP top 10 has declined by as much in the past 10 days as Lynch, and examining the many sources that record ADP throughout the fantasy football industry, Lynch's stock ranges anywhere from the back end of the first round (picks 8-10) to the middle of the second (picks 14-16).
Lynch's critics have evidently come out in droves this preseason, making such wild accusations as "he has been overworked in recent years," "his holdout will adversely impact him statistically," "he'll suffer from a Super Bowl hangover" and "he reported toSeattle Seahawks camp in terrible shape."
Hogwash. Any such claim would need statistical merit to support it, and the evidence simply doesn't back up any of them.
[h=3]Lynch has been overworked[/h]Well, sure, that appears to be true, as Lynch's 901 rushing attempts the past three seasons combined lead the NFL (by 66 over Adrian Peterson). What that ignores, however, is that 901 carries over three seasons isn't an abusive workload, especially considering that Lynch never amassed more than 315 carries in those years, nor in any of his first seven seasons in the NFL. Between 1960 and 2012, there were 60 instances of a player amassing more than Lynch's 901 carries during a three-consecutive-year span; 36 of those resulted in three-year totals of 1,000 carries or more.
The production of these players historically, too, shows no evidence of wear and tear at Lynch's usage level. The following chart breaks them down into three groups: Those who tallied 976 or more carries during the three-year span, those who had between 926 and 975, and those who had between 875 and 925, which is where Lynch would reside.

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"></center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"></center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Three-year "workhorse" span</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Follow-up campaign (single year)</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Carries</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"># in study</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">G/Player</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">YPC</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">G/Player</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">YPC</center>
976+	36	15.7	15.3	4.23	13.6	12.9	3.94
926-975	47	15.3	14.2	4.28	12.7	12.7	4.23
875-925	50	14.7	12.3	4.18	13.0	11.5	4.21

And, just for curiosity's sake, let's now examine only those players from the study who were of comparable age to Lynch: Those who were entering their follow-up seasons as either 28-year-olds (which Lynch is in 2014) or 29-year-olds:

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"></center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"></center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Three-year "workhorse" span</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Follow-up campaign (single year)</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Carries</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"># in study</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">G/Player</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">YPC</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">G/Player</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">YPC</center>
976+	13	15.8	15.5	4.09	14.5	11.6	3.83
926-975	16	15.3	13.2	4.15	14.1	12.9	4.33
875-925	18	14.3	11.6	4.04	12.9	11.4	4.27

As you can see, players within Lynch's workload range scarcely suffered in terms of fantasy production, losing less than one point per game overall and less than a quarter-point among the 28- and 29-year-olds. Yes, there's a drop-off, as the chart illustrates. That said,every running back coming off a productive, full-timer's season is at risk for similar statistical regression. Consider that of the 28 running backs to amass at least 100 fantasy points in 2012, the group declined, on average, by 1.2 fantasy points per game, in 2013. To criticize the heavily worked group for such a decline is unfair considering that fact.
[h=3]Lynch's holdout will adversely impact him[/h]This can be true depending upon the circumstances: Steven Jackson (2008), Chris Johnson(2011) and Maurice Jones-Drew (2012) are three of the more notable examples of players who struggled through poor years that began with a training camp holdout. The three combined for 14 games missed, 129.3 fantasy points per man and an average of 11.4 fantasy points per game (or 183 projected to a 16-game season).
But to compare Lynch to any of these three is also unfair for an important reason: Lynch reported to camp considerably earlier than any of them, agreeing to terms with the Seahawks on July 31, 21 days earlier than Jackson, 33 days earlier than Johnson and 34 days earlier than Jones-Drew. As a result of their holdouts, none of those three appeared in a preseason game, and while Lynch might not, either, he has a chance to do so if the Seahawks wish. That's an important difference, as in Jackson's, Johnson's and Jones-Drew's examples, it was their having missed the entirety -- or vast majority, in Jackson's case -- of the preseason that hurt their prospects.
That's another reason a comprehensive list of historical holdout performance would be next to impossible. Holdout length, rationale and result can influence the results, and the sample size of holdout running backs is probably too small to judge. It's simply a less measurable phenomenon; it's not like there are preseason stats for holdouts.
If you're to press the point that Lynch's holdout is a negative for his fantasy value, you'd have at least one fair case to make: At 28 years old this season, he's older than Johnson (27), Jackson (25) or Jones-Drew (25) was at the time of his holdout. We'll see whether that matters once the games begin to count.
[h=3]Lynch will suffer from the "Super Bowl hangover"[/h]This one simply doesn't hold water. If there is any such thing as a "Super Bowl hangover," described as a player, players or entire team suffering a substantial drop-off in production in the year after a Super Bowl championship, mainly due to decreased competitive motivation, running backs don't appear to suffer from it:
Super Bowl-winning RBs, Super Bowl seasons: 12.1 FPTS/G, 15.0 G
Super Bowl-winning RBs, follow-up campaigns: 12.1 FPTS/G, 12.3 G
It's the games played total -- those the average games played by the 47 running backs in question -- that might catch your eye, but such regression isn't unexpected. After all, 127 running backs scored at least 240 fantasy points in a season from 1960-2012, and that group averaged 2.2 fewer games played in their follow-up campaigns, a decline comparable to those of the Super Bowl champions. Or, to look at it another way, the top 10 running backs by season since the turn of the millennium (2000-12, excluding 2013, as 2014 has yet to be played) averaged 2.3 fewer games played in their follow-up years. Simply put, allproductive running backs are at that similar level of risk.

For another perspective, consider that seven of the 15 Super Bowl-winning running backs who scored at least 200 fantasy points during the regular season, as Lynch did in 2013, had a fantasy points-per-game mark either better than, the same as or within 10 percent of his Super Bowl season during his subsequent campaign. Two of them -- Marcus Allen in 1983-84 and Emmitt Smith in 1993-94 -- actually improved their fantasy point totals by at least 25 percent.
Perhaps some running backs suffer from this phenomenon -- Joe Morris in 1986-87, Ray Rice in 2012-13 and Roger Craig in 1989-90 -- but there's no compelling argument to apply such a blanket statement to Lynch entering 2014.
[h=3]Lynch reported to camp in terrible shape[/h]Now that'd be a fair criticism, and the most relevant one to the case ... if it could be proven to be true.
Unfortunately, what appears to have happened is that fantasy owners caught the early reports -- including one from the Aug. 5 Seattle Post-Intelligencer -- that suggested that Lynch was behind his teammates in terms of football conditioning. Well, of course Lynch was behind at the time; he had reported to camp only days earlier. And what was subsequently ignored by many was the positive comments about Lynch's conditioning in the days thereafter, such as an Aug. 10 Seattle Times report: " 'Yup, he's getting a lot closer,' said coach Pete Carroll. 'He had a very good practice [on Aug. 10]. We're just trying to do it properly. I really liked the way he got after it today. He got stuff in all phases of the practice.'"
That's not to say that Lynch's physical conditioning shouldn't be tracked in the coming days, or that he's at tip-top shape today. It's merely to say that Lynch is following a normal, expected pattern of physical improvement as the preseason progresses, and while he might be somewhat behind the rest of his team, it's not necessarily by an amount that justifies an all-out panic.

The truth is that the cumulative effect of these four criticisms seems to be deflating Lynch's draft stock, to the point he's quickly becoming a relative bargain. Marshawn Lynch as a prospective second-round pick? Yes, please.

HacheMan · Aug 24, 2014

[h=1]Boom-or-bust picks for 2014[/h][h=3]Foster among players who could win you your league -- or ruin your team[/h]By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus
ESPN INSIDER

They say fantasy leagues can't be won in the first few rounds but they can be lost. Those who started their 2013 draft with Jamaal Charles, Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manningwould beg to differ.
Picking out the biggest boom/bust players in the league can be a tricky exercise. After all, there are no safe bets in fantasy football. How good do you think owners whose first three picks last season were Doug Martin, Julio Jones and Randall Cobb felt? That warm feeling didn't last long.
Still, the only way to maximize your chances of winning a league title is to assess the upside and risk of each and every player. I've identified one player from each of the first eight rounds -- based on ESPN.com average draft position (ADP) -- who fits the profile of a boom/bust producer.
Put another way, these players, for better or worse, will decide the fate of your season. Select them at your own risk.
<offer></offer>

[h=3]Round 1: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans[/h]Flagged as injury-prone by a majority of fantasy football pundits, Foster has missed at least three games in two of the past three seasons, which includes eight games missed with a back injury in 2013. Of course, Foster has been a fantasy stud when healthy. In the three seasons before that last one, Foster finished second, fourth and first in fantasy points among running backs. That includes the 2011 season, when he missed three games.
Foster turns 28 this year and will be operating in a new offense with underwhelming Ryan Fitzpatrick at the controls. The good news is that Houston's recent overhaul of its tailback depth chart all but confirms that the team will rely heavily on its lead back. Foster is good enough and will see enough volume to finish as a top-five back if all goes well, but the Houston offense, his durability and his age make him a risky bet in Round 1.

[h=3]Round 2: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/h]Entering the 2013 season, Martin had the look of a safe first-round investment. The year before, he had racked up nearly 2,000 total yards and 12 touchdowns en route to finishing his rookie campaign third among backs in fantasy points. Instead, he struggled to 3.6 yards per attempt on 139 touches and just one TD before going down with a season-ending shoulder injury.
With Lovie Smith and Jeff Tedford now in control of the Tampa Bay offense, Martin is no longer assured a workhorse role. Charles Sims was selected in the third round this spring and will be a threat for touches -- especially on passing downs -- once he returns from ankle surgery. Bobby Rainey, Mike James and Jeff Demps will be in the mix right out of the gate. Martin is only 25 and has shown flashes of elite production, but his pre-injury struggles of 2013 and uncertain workload are legitimate concerns.

[h=3]Round 3: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots[/h]If there's a poster boy for boom/bust this year, it's this guy. Arguably the most valuable player in fantasy when active, Gronkowski has 43 touchdowns in 50 career regular-season games. Of course, staying on the field has been a trouble spot. Gronkowski has missed 14 regular-season games to injury over the past two seasons. Last year, he hauled in 39 passes for 592 yards and four touchdowns in only seven games. Only Graham scored more fantasy points on a per-game basis.
The preseason reports on Gronkowski are as good as we can expect for a guy who tore his ACL and MCL in early December. He's participating in 11-on-11s in practice and is expected to play in Week 1. Even if he misses a few weeks, he's worth your attention toward the end of the second round. Gronkowski for 12 games combined with a replacement-level tight end for the other four adds up to stud tight end production. Still just 25 years old, he's worth the risk.

[h=3]Round 4: C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills[/h]Spiller's inclusion here is more about his tremendous boom and less about a potential bust. I'd argue that he has the highest floor among the players on this list, but he also has the upside to lead the position in fantasy points. The risk you're taking on when selecting him is that he'll be mediocre from a fantasy perspective. He has performed exceptionally well throughout his career but, four years in, has yet to explode into a superstar. A ridiculous 6.0 YPA and eight total touchdowns helped him to a seventh-place finish in fantasy points among backs in 2012. Last season, he scored only twice and finished No. 27 at the position, 17 spots behind teammate Fred Jackson.
Set to turn 27 this year, Spiller is still in his prime, but he has a lot to prove in a contract year. He's favored over 33-year-old Jackson to lead the Bills in carries, but will need to make up for a lack of goal-line work (two career carries within 3 yards of the end zone) with some long touchdowns. With Buffalo's high-volume, run-heavy offense, Spiller's impressive skills make him well worth your attention on draft day.

[h=3]Round 5: Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks[/h]Very much like Gronkowski, Harvin has seen his superstar career derailed by injuries the past two years. After appearing in 45 of a possible 48 regular-season games to begin his NFL career, Harvin has missed all but 10 games over the past two seasons. He managed only one target in the 2013 regular season but did appear in two playoff games. He already has proved to be a big-time producer when healthy. Back in 2011 -- the only season in which he appeared in all 16 games -- Harvin totaled 1,309 yards and eight touchdowns on 138 offensive touches.
Harvin is only 26 years old, so we shouldn't expect his skills to fade any time soon. The Seahawks run the ball a lot, which will limit Harvin's targets, but he'll add fantasy points as a rusher (and a returner, in leagues that account for that aspect of the game). On the other hand, he requires a lot of volume to put up big fantasy points, and it's hard to hold up against big volume when you're 5-foot-11, 184 pounds. Harvin's ceiling is that of a middle-of-the-pack WR2, which means you're probably better off going elsewhere with your fifth pick.

[h=3]Round 6: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings[/h]Labeling him a relative unknown, many would call Patterson a risky investment in the sixth round. Of course, there's a lot to be excited about here. A first-round pick in 2013, Patterson electrified the Minnesota offense and return game as a rookie. He touched the ball only 57 times on offense but scored seven times. Only Devin Hester racked up more kick return yards, and no one matched or exceeded Patterson's two kick return touchdowns.
Patterson was considered a raw prospect when he entered the league last year, but he's now 23 and has a year and a half with the team under his belt. The Vikings' offense was quietly above average in the touchdown department last season. With Adrian Peterson andKyle Rudolph healthy, and Teddy Bridgewater likely emerging at quarterback at some point during the season, there's little reason to expect regression. Now an every-down offensive player, Patterson is a superstar in the making and is well worth your attention in the sixth round.

[h=3]Round 7: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills[/h]The seventh round is very early for a rookie wide receiver, but Watkins has the upside to warrant consideration here. Not only did the Bills break the bank to trade up for Watkins back in May but they also traded No. 1 wideout Stevie Johnson to San Francisco. It's clear that Watkins is going to be an every-down player, and he has the talent to put up one of the best rookie seasons of all time for a wide receiver.
Of course, there are concerns outside of Watkins' inexperience. EJ Manuel was not very effective as a rookie, and he has done nothing in the preseason to ease concerns that Buffalo has one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. Additionally, when game flow is factored in, the Bills operated the league's run-heaviest offense last season. That might limit Watkins' ceiling a bit, but Buffalo did rank among the league leaders in offensive plays. Watkins is a special talent with WR1 upside, but he's unlikely to get there in 2014. There are safer players with big-time upside available in the seventh round of most drafts.

[h=3]Round 8: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons[/h]Back in 2012, Ryan was a fantasy stud, tossing 32 touchdowns en route to a fifth-place finish in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Despite throwing 36 more passes in 2013, Ryan managed only 26 TDs and finished ninth. Injuries to Julio Jones (missed the final 11 games) and Roddy White (missed three games, played hurt in several others) are a big reason for the decline.
Both players are back to full health for the 2014 season, but Ryan will be without surefire Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. That leaves Harry Douglas and Levine Toilolo as his top midrange/downfield targets behind Jones and White. The Falcons do figure to continue throwing the ball at will, however, which bodes well for Ryan's attempts. The smart move is to wait at quarterback in 2014, and Ryan is a fine middle-rounds target in the event that you do. Just hope his top two targets stay healthy.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2014

[h=1]Fantasy draft tips on every team[/h][h=3]Our 32 team reporters give you the fantasy scoop from inside the locker room[/h]
By NFL Nation Reporters | ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider has planted spies in every NFL locker room -- OK, so they're our 32 NFL Nation team reporters -- in order to provide fantasy owners with inside intel to help you win your league. We call it Insider Trading, a collection of fantasy draft advice pulled straight from the locker rooms and practice fields of every team.
This preseason edition should help owners with their drafts, including a look at potential sleeper options like Doug Baldwin and Travis Kelce, and guys that should cause fantasy players some concern (Vernon Davis and Chris Johnson).
Check back every week for info that will help you set your lineups. In the meantime, here is our NFL Nation reporters' fantasy advice, covering every team.

[h=3]NFC West[/h]

Seattle Seahawks: Baldwin a good sleeper option at WR
It's no secret that wide receiver Percy Harvin could put up big fantasy numbers this season, seeing as how he's healthier than he has been in years, but the guy who the players tell me is going to surprise people this season is receiver Doug Baldwin. He has wowed teammates and coaches since moving from the slot to split end. One of his fellow WRs told me that defenses will make a big mistake if they think Baldwin's lack of height (5-foot-10) will keep him from making deep sideline catches or big plays on fade routes -- he's been doing it against Richard Sherman in practice all camp. -- Terry Blount

St. Louis Rams: Quick could be team's top WR<offer>
There are those in the Rams organization who believe that the light has finally come on for receiver Brian Quick. One coach said he believes having a fiery veteran with a similar build in Kenny Britt actually has helped Quick, rather than pushing him further down the depth chart. It's unlikely any receiver will post huge numbers in the Rams' run-first offense -- especially now that Sam Bradford is out for the year -- but instead of Britt or Tavon Austin, don't be surprised if Quick leads the pack. -- Nick Wagoner</offer>

San Francisco 49ers: Davis due for a decline in production
Be leery of making tight end Vernon Davis a high pick in your fantasy draft. While Davis is a favorite of QB Colin Kaepernick and is coming off of career high-tying marks in yards per catch (16.3) and TDs (13), word in the 49ers locker room is that Kaepernick will spread the targets around more this season. He has a healthy Michael Crabtree to go with the returning Anquan Boldin and new guys in Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson. -- Paul Gutierrez

Arizona Cardinals: Ellington poised for a huge year
While he was the team's brightest star in training camp, Cardinals rookie wide receiver John Brown might not make a huge impact his first season. His production dropped a little toward the end of camp and he still needs to be challenged more going across the middle. But the news on second-year running back Andre Ellington is very good from a fantasy perspective. The Cards have been lining him out wide a lot, and his overall production -- both as a runner and especially as a receiver -- is expected to significantly increase from a year ago. --Josh Weinfuss

[h=3]NFC East[/h]

Dallas Cowboys: Expect a slight dip from Dez
In each of the last two seasons, Dez Bryant has posted more than 90 catches for more than 1,200 yards, and he has caught 25 touchdown passes the past two seasons. Expect those totals to take a hit in 2014. The team's focus on the running game this season is real for the Cowboys, not just words. That'll mean fewer opportunities for Bryant, just based on pure math. He will still be dominant, and could have a better season in every way as a player -- just not statistically. -- Todd Archer

New York Giants: Jennings still the guy at RB, not Williams
Don't get overly concerned about rookie Andre Williams stealing carries fromRashad Jennings. Giants coaches have told me that Williams is still a bit too raw for them to count on him extensively, at least at the beginning of the season, and that Jennings should factor significantly into the passing game and be their workhorse ball carrier when the regular season begins. -- Dan Graziano

Washington Redskins: Need a sleeper? Watch out for Roberts
There are stronger options in terms of fantasy points on the Redskins than receiver Andre Roberts. But as one Washington player said, he's easy to trust because he runs great routes and focuses on the details, which makes him a consistent and attractive target. Besides, another player said, defenses can't double all the Redskins' WRs, and he predicts Roberts will benefit from attention paid to players such as tight end Jordan Reed and receiver DeSean Jackson. -- John Keim

Philadelphia Eagles: Big year coming for Sproles
Chip Kelly's fertile mind has been working double time since the Eagles traded forDarren Sproles during the offseason. Sproles was a terrific fantasy player in New Orleans and, while Kelly keeps emphasizing that Sproles is a running back and not a receiver, the expectation is Sproles will be just as versatile and productive with the Eagles while playing a dual role. -- Phil Sheridan

[h=3]NFC North[/h]

Green Bay Packers: Lacy will be a three-down back
The Packers went in to the season with the hope of turning their running backs into three-down players. They have succeeded with two of them -- Eddie Lacy andDuJuan Harris -- but James Starks has struggled on third downs. The coaches trust Lacy and Harris in those situations, which should mean increased opportunities to catch the ball out of the backfield. That's just another reason to like Lacy as a top-five pick. -- Rob Demovsky

Chicago Bears: Marshall's numbers will jump in 2014
Despite Brandon Marshall putting together seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, he claims 2014 will be his Michael Jackson "Thriller" year. Don't bet against Marshall, because in addition to being healthy (he didn't get to train last offseason because he was recovering from hip surgery) and entering Year 2 in Marc Trestman's offense, the team has tweaked its scheme to find creative ways to put Marshall in more advantageous matchups. -- Michael C. Wright

Detroit Lions: Tate poised for a breakthrough
Golden Tate is going from being a No. 1 receiver in a run-heavy offense to a No. 2 receiver in a pass-friendly scheme in Detroit. He has said his numbers can "be way better" with the Lions in 2014 than with the Seahawks in 2013, when he had 64 catches for 898 yards and five touchdowns. Reason to believe: He should be seeing a lot of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson. -- Michael Rothstein

Minnesota Vikings: More explosive plays for AP
Adrian Peterson might not see quite as many carries this season as he has the last couple, but he could be in line for more big plays, especially in the passing game. Vikings coaches want to convert some of Peterson's carries between the tackles to catches outside of them, and while pass protection has been one of the shakiest parts of his game in recent years, they believe he's made significant improvement in that area -- to the point where he may see more action on third downs than he has in the past. More explosive plays could help boost his fantasy numbers after an injury-filled 2013 season. -- Ben Goessling

[h=3]NFC South[/h]

Carolina Panthers: Olsen is undervalued
Coach Ron Rivera told me he sees no reason quarterback Cam Newton won't start and be ready to implement the entire offense Week 1 at Tampa Bay despite suffering a fractured rib on Aug. 22. And while Newton's favorite target in training camp has been big-play rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, don't underestimate the value of tight end Greg Olsen. The Panthers plan to run more two-tight end sets this season, and with teams focused on Benjamin on the outside, that should open up the middle of the field for Olsen. -- David Newton

New Orleans Saints: Don't forget about Colston
You've probably heard plenty of hype about rookie WR Brandin Cooks, and perhaps second-year man Kenny Stills, but don't expect a steep decline in fantasy production from receiver Marques Colston. He's talked all summer about feeling healthier than he has in two years, calling it a "totally different ballgame," and he's still a full-time starter who was targeted six times in the first quarter by Drew Brees last week, including a touchdown catch. -- Mike Triplett

Atlanta Falcons: Hester could be worth a flier
The Falcons added Devin Hester this offseason with the intent of having him contribute solely as a return man. But the coaches have been pleasantly surprised with how Hester has performed as a receiver, which is why he'll be another weapon out of the slot with Julio Jones and Roddy White outside. Hester scored two touchdowns in eight targets during the second and third preseason games, with both scores including runs after the catch. For teams in deeper leagues, he's worth keeping an eye on. -- Vaughn McClure

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Big workload coming for Martin
The Bucs' new coaching staff came in believing starting tailback Doug Martin could not be effective as a pass-catcher. But that opinion changed in a big way after Martin used training camp and the preseason to show his versatility. The team drafted Charles Sims to be its pass-catching running back, but he is out with an injury for at least half the season. So not only will Martin get the bulk of the Bucs' carries, he will get plenty of chances as a receiver out of the backfield. -- Pat Yasinskas

[h=3]AFC West[/h]

Denver Broncos: Ball has star potential; Latimer a sleeper
Montee Ball will be a three-down back this season. While the Broncos will use others from time to time, Ball has consistently shown quality hands as a receiver. Most importantly, Peyton Manning trusts him and his instincts in pass protection, which means he's going to be on the field in all situations. Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker (when Welker returns from a concussion) will get plenty of looks, but rookie WR Cody Latimer is worth a late-round flyer. He'll get some red zone snaps because the Broncos like the way he attacks the ball in traffic. -- Jeff Legwold

Kansas City Chiefs: Kelce offers high upside at TE
The Chiefs intend to keep looking for tight end Travis Kelce, who caught two long touchdown passes in their first three preseason games, as a downfield threat. I've been told the big-play ability of Kelce is one reason the Chiefs weren't more aggressive in pursuing a veteran wide receiver in free agency this year. He offers a lot of upside based on where he's being drafted right now. -- Adam Teicher

Oakland Raiders: Value in McFadden as a backup
While the coaching staff has praised Darren McFadden's explosiveness this camp, it appears that Raiders will go with Maurice Jones-Drew as the primary back. But McFadden could still be a factor, as coaches feel that if he can stay fresh and healthy, he can make an impact as he did when the Raiders had Michael Bush with him in the backfield. -- Bill Williamson

San Diego Chargers: Mathews could thrive despite smaller workload
With the addition of Donald Brown in free agency and Danny Woodhead receiving a contract extension, Ryan Mathews is not expected to carry the ball 285 times like last season. However, the Fresno State product is not being phased out of the offense, and I've been told by offensive coordinator Frank Reich that he remains the every-down back for the Chargers. Heading into a contract year, Mathews also is properly motivated, and has a better chance to stay healthy for the duration of the season with the addition of Brown. -- Eric Williams

[h=3]AFC East[/h]

Buffalo Bills: Big workloads coming for both Spiller and Jackson
The Bills added a pair of running backs in the offseason in Bryce Brown andAnthony Dixon, but don't expect them to be major contributors to the offense. Head coach Doug Marrone still intends to game plan with just two running backs, which is good news for both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson (and their fantasy owners). -- Mike Rodak

Miami Dolphins: Wallace could have bounce-back season
Dolphins No. 1 receiver Mike Wallace looks improved in the team's new offense under Bill Lazor and is poised to put up better numbers in 2014. Wallace told me he's motivated to have a big season because "I owe it to my teammates." Wallace often is the last player to leave the practice field and is putting in extra time to try to regain the edge and production he once had in Pittsburgh. -- James Walker

New England Patriots: Vereen is the Patriots' back worth owning
The Patriots are planning to use running back Shane Vereen more this season than they have in the past (24.7 percent of the offensive snaps last season; 12.7 percent in 2012; 1.9 percent in 2011). The Patriots are a game-plan offense, and will vary their attack on a weekly basis, but the sense I get from those around the team is Vereen is going to be the type of player who will have a significant role in almost every plan. -- Mike Reiss

New York Jets: Tempering expectations for Johnson
Chris Johnson is the Jets running back with game-breaking potential -- but this isn't Tennessee, where Johnson averaged 21.2 touches per game for his career. In New York, Johnson will share the workload with Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell, with Ivory likely the primary option in the red zone. Johnson's fantasy production figures to take a hit as a result. -- Rich Cimini

[h=3]AFC North[/h]

Baltimore Ravens: Pierce has limited value
RB Bernard Pierce is still expected to replace the suspended Ray Rice for the first two games, but there is some concern within the organization about his health. He suffered a mild concussion in the third preseason game, which only increased talk about his durability issues.Pierce didn't make the trip to New Orleans for the preseason finale. If he can't practice by the beginning of next week, veteran journeyman Justin Forsett will move into the starting role. The Ravens didn't play Forsett in the preseason finale to make sure he didn't get hurt. -- Jamison Hensley

Cleveland Browns: Tate will see plenty of carries
With Josh Gordon suspended, the Browns' top fantasy options are tight endJordan Cameron and running back Ben Tate. But the team is concerned at the amount of double coverage Cameron will see without Gordon. The coaching staff believes in Tate, and will give him the ball a lot. He and Terrance West should be the focal points of the offense, as the Browns will rely upon defense and the running game to win without Gordon. -- Pat McManamon

Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton, fantasy star?
Here's something you might not have realized: Andy Dalton finished sixth in the NFL in fantasy points last season. He could rank even higher this year. He has impressed the coaching staff this preseason with his ability to deliver the deep ball when needed, and they will be going for the home run frequently. Offensive coaches have said the goal is to use the running game to draw safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up space over the top. -- Coley Harvey

Pittsburgh Steelers: Bell's value on the decline
The dreaded time share could hurt the value of Le'Veon Bell, who looked like a rising fantasy star after setting a Steelers record for yards from scrimmage by a rookie (1,259) and scoring eight touchdowns in 13 games last season. Bell is still the Steelers' starter and an attractive No. 2 fantasy back because of his receiving skills. But he will lose goal-line carries to LeGarrette Blount, and coach Mike Tomlin has said the Steelers will lean on both in the ground game, with speedy rookie Dri Archer also expected to get some touches this season. -- Scott Brown

[h=3]AFC South[/h]

Houston Texans: Foster returning to form
Arian Foster has done very little work in the preseason as the Texans manage his recovery from November back surgery, but his coaches have been delighted by how fluid and fresh he has looked when he has been out there. If Foster can stay healthy, head coach Bill O'Brien will have him catch passes out of the backfield quite a bit. As a bonus for potential Foster owners, the Texans' running game figures to be aided by a stout offensive line with great chemistry. -- Tania Ganguli

Indianapolis Colts: Allen on verge of breakout
Tight end Dwayne Allen went from feeling uncomfortable with his on-the-field mechanics during the offseason because of a hip injury that limited him to a half a game last season, to now saying his movements are fluid again. Allen has surpassed last season's starter Coby Fleener on the depth chart because his blocking and catching ability makes him an all-around tight end who will be tough to get off the field. He could put up some good numbers. -- Mike Wells

Jacksonville Jaguars: Shorts could put up big numbers
Receiver Cecil Shorts is back to 100 percent after missing 23 days of camp with a hamstring injury, and will resume his spot as the Jaguars' No. 1 receiver. A person high up in the organization told me the expectation is Shorts will catch 80 passes in 2014 if he stays healthy. He caught a career-high 66 balls last season but averaged a career-low 11.8 yards per catch. Shorts has missed 11 games in his three seasons and has finished each of the past two seasons on IR. -- Mike DiRocco

Tennessee Titans: Keep an eye out for Sankey
All indications are that Shonn Greene will get the most carries in the Titans' backfield committee to start the season, but don't think that rules out rookie RBBishop Sankey from having a fantasy impact this season. The Titans are saying he is ready for first-team snaps based on how he has performed in practice. -- Paul Kuharsky

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2014

[h=1]Separating tight ends into tiers

By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

[/h]
As we finish up "tier week" in the KaraBlog and realize there will be no more quiet NFL weekends until February -- and this is a good thing -- it's worth pointing out that the tight end position is just a little bit different. In ESPN standard leagues, it's probably not necessary to draft a second tight end, so that's 10 or 12 teams, one tight end each, and some pretty good ones available in free agency. We can tier the position, but it kind of comes down to whether you want to spend a first-rounder on the best tight end, select one of the reliable ones in the middle rounds, or wait until the end.
So let's break it down, and remember that these are my rankings and mine alone; the results will and should differ from my colleagues and those of the dear readers -- make your own rankings and tiers! -- and while this is a game we play for various reasons and all want to win, it still remains about the fun. Enjoy yourselves and have a great weekend!
Tier 1

Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints (1st TE, 12th overall): Can't make a case for anyone else, not that I tried. Expect another elite season. Some will debate he's so much better than the others at this position that it automatically means FIRST ROUND in capital letters, but that's a flawed viewpoint. You're constructing a team. Supply-and-demand themes apply, and Graham is a worthy top-10 choice, but it depends on what's left on the board.
Tier 2
Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (2nd TE, 40th overall): One of three gents at this position to catch a dozen or more touchdown passes last season, Thomas achieved this in his first year as a starter. The numbers calmed down in the second half, and I'll probably wait six more rounds for my tight end anyway, but Thomas seems safe and in his own tier.
Tier 3
Rob Gronkowski, New England (3rd TE, 55th overall): Look, I won't argue with those who target this extremely talented player in the second round, right after Graham. He could return the value. My argument is never about his skills. It's about durability.
Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (4th TE, 56th overall): He was scoring a touchdown virtually every week in the second half of the season, and with Michael Crabtree in the fold, so he appears a better value than Thomas. I just like Thomas better and believe his performance is more sustainable.
Tier 4

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (5th TE, 92nd overall): Safe, reliable option and while the touchdowns were high for him, the catches and yards were low. Which Witten season is better? He's not a top guy, but certainly a fantasy starter.

Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (6th TE, 97th overall): No Panther had more receptions, targets, receiving yards or touchdown catches than Olsen last season, so those who sayCam Newton lost all his weapons are wrong. He lost the average ones after Olsen, and they've been properly replaced. Trust Olsen.
Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns(7th TE, 98th overall): It's obviously a small sample, but Cameron did well in the two games Josh Gordon missed last season. I'm really not worried about Cameron and potential double teams. Nor does the QB spot in relation to him concern me. Cameron's good. He'll overcome it.
Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens (8th TE, 99th overall): Solid in 2012, injured in 2013, and the Ravens treat him like a wide receiver enough of the time that he's got nice upside. Just stay on the field, please.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (9th TE, 100th overall): I readily admit this is a small leap of faith, but I keep saying it: It's the system, silly. Ertz will be lined up on the line, in the slot, to the outside, he's going to be tough to cover in this cryptic offense. And I'm willing to take a chance because there is depth later on just in case.
Tier 5
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (10th TE, 127th overall): Perhaps he deserves better placement based on the touchdown potential he showed in 2012, and the presence of coordinator Norv Turner, who has a history of fine tight end play on his teams. I kind of buy these things and settled on Rudolph 10th. Don't go too overboard.
Jordan Reed, Washington (11th TE, 128th overall): A really good player with top-5 upside, he missed time with a concussion. Most people will choose him ahead of Ertz, and that's OK. I view them similarly.
Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (12th TE, 129th overall): He's no sure thing, because he eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in just one game from Week 3 on last season, but there's potential for so much more.
Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (13th TE, 130th overall): Simply put, the former H-back wasn't expected to be a relevant tight end, but he was. And it's not outrageous for him to do it again.

Tier 6

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (14th TE, 165th overall): This is probably the end for the once-prolific player, but he remains among the best at the position for receptions, targets and yards. The problem is the fellow next on this list …
Ladarius Green, Chargers (15th TE, 166th overall):He's ready. Didn't catch a ton of passes, but sure averaged a ton of yards on the ones he did. Lock him in for dynasty formats. And I wouldn't recommend selecting both Green and Gates. Might be frustrating.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (16th TE, 167th overall): Better suited for reserve duty in deeper fantasy leagues, but he also wasn't that far from top-10 scorer. Offense should improve.
Timothy Wright, Patriots (17th TE, 168th overall):Unranked as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Pats should use him even if Gronkowski is on the field. He's likely to see time assuming a wide receiver spot as well. Nice sleeper.
Tier 7

Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (18th TE, unranked): Offered hope last season due to skill and also the perceived added value of being a former Stanford teammate of quarterback Andrew Luck, but it didn't really materialize. At least not yet.

Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions (19th TE, unranked): Top-10 real-life pick seems a year away from stardom to me, but this is an elite offense, so he should show signs initially.
Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers(20th TE, unranked): His 2012 would clearly be top-10 worthy in fantasy, and we presume he's healthy after knee surgery late that year. But what if last season is his new baseline? It was prior to 2012.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Buccaneers (21st TE, unranked): It's chicken or the egg here. Bucs either felt so comfortable in this guy they could afford to trade Wright, or they were so desperate for offensive line help, that's what it took. It's probably both.
Jace Amaro, New York Jets (22nd TE, unranked): Another rookie and far less heralded than, say Ebron, but draft position means nothing now. It's about fantasy value. Amaro probably doesn't catch 50 passes this season, but it wouldn't be a shock if he's used a lot.
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals (23rd TE, unranked): Did some nice things after the catch, but needs more catches.
Garrett Graham, Houston Texans (24th TE, unranked): Performed well with Owen Danielshurting, and Daniels is now gone.
Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (25th TE, unranked): For now he's just a name to know in case he separates himself from Andrew Quarless and Brandon Bostick.

Hope you enjoyed "tiers week" in the KaraBlog. If you're wondering about defenses and kickers, well, I have the Seattle Seahawks in their own section for defenses, though they're being selected far too early for my liking, and I'll wait until Round 15 for my defense. And all kickers go in Round 16. Except Matt Prater, who shouldn't go at all due to his suspension. Enjoy your drafts!

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2014

[h=1]Separating wide receivers into tiers

By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

[/h]
The wide receiver position is seriously deep this season, which isn't really a surprise but more a continuation from past years. However, because running back is shallow in comparison, you might find those who make their living catching the football slide in drafts. Hey, that's fine with me. After all, while I'm not assuming the flex position on all my teams will routinely be filled by a wide receiver, it's kind of irrelevant. Go with the best guy from week to week.
As we continue with "tier week" in this blog space, you'll likely find larger concentrations of wide receivers clumped together, for it's easier to find similarities at this position, or rather not much separates them. At running back, you just feel in your gut this guy is better than that. Often there are statistics to prove it from the past, one situation trumps another, but at wide receiver, that's not always the case.
Anyway, with quarterback and running back tiers handled, and tight ends to come Friday, let's check out my personal tiers at this position. As always, these are my rankings/tiers and mine alone, and to be blunt, you shouldn't agree. Make your own lists, but use the vast amounts of information provided by ESPN Fantasy -- all the terrific analysts -- to help guide you. And have fun in the comments section! Very entertaining!
Tier 1
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (1st WR, 11th overall): A joy to own, but I admit I likely won't own him. Again, there's lots of depth, and the next tier is not that far away.
Tier 2

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos(2nd WR, 15th overall): You know, I thought about moving him into the first tier, but I do think Peyton Manning will see at least 10 touchdown passes shaved from his total. I don't think Thomas will regress as much as Manning will, from a fantasy aspect.
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (3rd WR, 16th overall): Tell yourself you like Bryant the best because the Dallas defense is dreadful, but honestly, you don't need to justify. When focused, Bryant dominates.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (4th WR, 17th overall): The Andy Daltoninterceptions don't get charged to Green. And there's little competition for targets here.
Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears (5th WR, 18th overall): See, now Marshall has to fight with another Bears star for targets, and he still gets his numbers. It doesn't really matter. Don’t overthink. Jay Cutler will find both his stars.
Tier 3
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (6th WR, 22nd overall): I understand why some call him brittle, but I'm just not there yet. He's so talented. So strong. But yeah, one more injury would sway me. Big season for Jones. Frankly, he could be the No. 1 WR at some point.
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (7th WR, 27th overall): Even Calvin Johnson has the occasional game where he does nothing. Brown didn't really have that last season. There were five receptions or more literally every week. What changes now?
Alshon Jeffery, Bears (8th WR, 28th overall): Hey, the Bears were second in scoring last season. They can do this again.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (9th WR, 30th overall): And if the Bears aren't second -- or first, really, knowing the Broncos will regress, and they will -- then the Packers withAaron Rodgers could be first. And they have two wide receivers as well.
Jordy Nelson, Packers (10th WR, 34th overall): Here's the other one.

Tier 4

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans(11th WR, 35th overall): If you think his production will drop because of quarterback play, look at 2013. He caught 109 passes from Matt Schaub,Case Keenum and T.J. Yates. He's a value pick, frankly.
Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12th WR, 36th overall):Not a ton of receptions for those in PPR formats, but productive.
Pierre Garcon, Washington (13th WR, 37th overall): A new guy with speed was brought in from a division rival, and I don't think it hurts Garcon one bit. Enjoy the many, many receptions and yards.
Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (14th WR, 38th overall): Breakout star certainly can exceed those rookie numbers. Watch his targets, and other stats, rise.
Roddy White, Falcons (15th WR, 39th overall): Please, he's not too old or injured. His production the final weeks was terrific.
Tier 5
Victor Cruz, New York Giants (16th WR, 45th overall): If that was a bad year, sign me up again. And really, how can Eli Manning be that awful again?
Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings (17th WR, 46th overall): Why not take a risk or two when there is so much depth? Patterson broke out late last season, scoring touchdowns in a few different ways. Wouldn't shock me if he's a top-10 WR.
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (18th WR, 47th overall): It would, however, shock me if Fitzgerald, who hasn't reached 1,000 receiving yards the past two seasons, was top-10. Frankly, his teammate, coming up real soon, might have the better chance.
Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (19th WR, 50th overall): I don't really believe adding Steve Smith makes much of a difference for Torrey Smith, but I thought he'd put up big numbers last year, and he didn't. But he hasn't gotten worse.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (20th WR, 51st overall): Some really big games and then some others when he's quiet, and that was the case no matter what other wide receivers were active. Need more consistency.
Tier 6
Michael Floyd, Cardinals (21st WR, 60th overall): Potential is there for great things, so think of him a bit earlier in dynasty formats.
Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers (22nd WR, 61st overall): Missed my top 20, but not because of talent issues. They just don't throw that much.
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos (23rd WR, 62nd overall): Sanders won't have that same problem begging for targets. There's a 1,000-yard season pending.
Tier 7
Wes Welker, Broncos (24th WR, 71st overall): Argument can be made that he should drop further due to concussions. But as of now, I don't know, he might play in Week 1. Might play all the weeks. And this is the position where one can take a risk.
DeSean Jackson, Washington (25th WR, 72nd overall): Last year was the first time he topped 62 receptions, and it wasn't him. It was the offense. And now he's not in that offense, not even close. The Eagles, frankly, are going to look vindicated and smart. There's no way I'd choose Jackson over Garcon.
Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles (26th WR, 73rd overall): It's the system, silly. And he's Jackson now. But I take the under on him playing in all 16 games.
Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (27th WR, 74th overall): Quality player in elite offense. Don't let him slip too far.
Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans (28th WR, 75th overall): Bet you weren't aware how many receptions he had. When the touchdowns rise to six or seven, you'll be aware.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (29th WR, 76th overall): And he caught 105 passes. Instead of explaining all the reasons why that can't happen again, betting on the health of others, realize it can absolutely happen again.

Tier 8

Reggie Wayne, Colts (30th WR, 77th overall): Coming back from shredding his knee and should be fine, butAndrew Luck has several options.
Riley Cooper, Eagles (31st WR, 78th overall): Big-play guy was third in yards per reception and scored touchdowns. I generally let others take the wide receivers that don't catch many passes, but this is good spot to get him.
Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (32nd WR, 79th overall): Laugh and ignore him if you must, but he's talented and the Dolphins have changed their offense for the better. More aggressive. And Wallace still gets deep.
Tier 9
Eric Decker, New York Jets (33rd WR, 94th overall): Well, the easy line is that Geno Smith is not Peyton Manning. But Decker will still make big plays and be the team's main weapon downfield.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (34th WR, 95th overall): Emerging star, and it's really not so bad that Andre Johnson is still around. Each will thrive.
Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks (35th WR, 96th overall): I realize this rank isn't close to what many others believe, but facts are facts. Never had a 1,000-yard season. Not durable. And no offense throws the ball less. I'll let someone else deal with it.
Tier 10
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (36th WR, 102nd overall): Alex Smith managing a game isn't really the best thing for Mr. Bowe.
Justin Hunter, Titans (37th WR, 103rd overall): Sleeper pick but worth going the extra round up for.
Terrance Williams, Cowboys (38th WR, 104th overall): Should see his targets rise quite a bit, and Tony Romo won't be shy.
Golden Tate, Lions (39th WR, 105th overall): It's been tough for wide receivers playing alongside Megatron to post large numbers. I just think Tate can have his best season. They throw so much.
Tier 11
Brandin Cooks, Saints (40th WR, 108th overall): Rookie time! I've decided I like this rookie wide receiver the best. Doesn't mean I'll be using him in September, though.
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (41st WR, 109th overall): What people forget is that it doesn’t matter one bit where he was drafted in real life, or how crazy-talented he is. Myriad rookie receivers are talented. Look where he landed. Some risk.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (42nd WR, 110th overall): It actually was not planned to group the rookies together, it just sorta happened that way. Yes, mad upside here. Tall guy playing alongside Vincent Jackson, but still, a raw rookie.
Tier 12

Jarrett Boykin, Packers (43rd WR, 112th overall): Now we're into No. 3 receivers on their own teams. Boykin should be that guy in Lambeau, but it's not guaranteed.

Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars(44th WR, 113th overall): Speculate all you want about how it's better or worse for him depending on veteran or rookie quarterback, but that is prime overthinking. It doesn't matter.
Danny Amendola, Patriots (45th WR, 114th overall): Move him way, way up in PPR formats, but don't forget about his health woes. And Edelman won't be pushed aside.
Anquan Boldin, 49ers (46th WR, 115th overall): Showed last year he has a lot left. Crabtree's return obviously affects his numbers, but don't totally ignore him.
Tier 13
James Jones, Oakland Raiders (47th WR, 116th overall): Took the money over situation, and as of now he might not even start. But I do think he has a chance to matter.
Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland Browns (48th WR, 117th overall): Thank you, Josh Gordon. From the best wide receiver season to literally no numbers at all. Hawkins isn't special, but someone has to catch passes from Brian Hoyer.
Markus Wheaton, Steelers (49th WR, 132nd overall): Should start and see plenty of targets, even with Antonio Brown busy.
Aaron Dobson, Patriots (50th WR, 133rd overall): Does anyone ever really know what Bill Belichick is thinking?
Jordan Matthews, Eagles (51st WR, 137th overall): Chip Kelly isn't really easier to figure out, but I do think he wants this guy in the slot. More upside for PPR formats.
Kenny Stills, Saints (52nd WR, 140th overall): Since Cooks is no lock, Stills should matter as well. He's no Devery Henderson.
Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams (53rd WR, 141st overall): Disappointing and erratic rookie season, but don't go thinking the loss of Sam Bradford kills his value. Might help it, actually.
Marvin Jones, Bengals (54th WR, 142nd overall): Out for September, but that really shouldn't alter where you draft him. Are you using 15th-round picks before the bye weeks anyway?
Tier 14
Dexter McCluster, Titans (55th WR, 144th overall): Hard to tell how much he'll be used in the receiving and running game at this point.
Rueben Randle, Giants (56th WR, 145th overall): Opportunity should be there, but he doesn’t appear special.
Hakeem Nicks, Colts (57th WR, 151st overall): Used to be special, but hard to rely on production and health.
Greg Jennings, Vikings (58th WR, 154th overall): Not the worst thing if he's your bye-week fill-in.
Brandon LaFell, Patriots (59th WR, 155th overall): Needs injuries to others to set him up.
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers (60th WR, 158th overall): He's a rookie. A talented rookie, but this offense doesn't really use its wide receivers all that much.
Malcom Floyd, Chargers (61st WR, 163rd overall): He has just a wee bit of trouble staying on the field.
Jerricho Cotchery, Panthers (62nd WR, 164th overall): It's a Panthers run! But hey, he's ranked ahead of Steve Smith.
Miles Austin, Browns (63rd WR, 169th overall): Oh, how the once mighty have fallen.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (64th WR, 178th overall): He's actually slated to start, but again, not a passing offense.
Steve Smith, Ravens (65th WR, 179th overall): Well, I'll be interested in adding him for the game against the Panthers in Week 4, but that's about it.
Brian Hartline, Dolphins (66th WR, 180th overall): He's got consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons and Fitzgerald does not. And Hartline is all the way down here. Life just isn't fair.

Cody Latimer, Broncos (67th WR, 181st overall): Welker insurance, though Andre Caldwell could easily be in this spot as well.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2014

[h=1]Separating running backs into tiers

By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

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Running backs are no longer the lifeblood for fantasy football owners, but that doesn't mean you should be ignoring them, either. My first round is made up entirely of running backs, but there are certainly different levels of excitement in securing members of that crew. We call them tiers, and as noted in [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Tuesday's quarterback listings[/FONT], a tiered system aids those participating in drafts and auctions to better gauge the depth at a certain position, and helping to analyze when an owner needs to act or when patience is warranted.

Let's get right to the rankings and remember these are mine and mine alone, considerably different from the staff lists and those of my compatriots. Make your own rankings and tiers because after all, they are your teams!

Tier 1

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs (1st RB, 1st overall): Yep, I realize my ESPN brethren have a different guy at the top, but this is my guy. I'm aware of potential risk with him, but the others in this tier have risk as well. I think Charles boasts the least risk.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles (2nd RB, 2nd overall): No major concerns, though he's been banged up in August and he's likely to see his receiving workload lessened this fall.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (3rd RB, 3rd overall): I'm just stunned everyone's treating him as a safe, young fellow who doesn't have a million touches and a knee injury. As with the quarterbacks and Peyton Manning, he's also my No. 3 guy in the top tier, and I came closer to moving Peterson out of the tier than up in it.

Tier 2

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (4th RB, 4th overall):Move him up in point-per-reception formats. No, really. Peterson is not catching 50 passes. He's barely top-10 overall in PPR.

Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (5th RB, 5th overall): One to target in keeper formats, too.

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks (6th RB, 6th overall): So let me understand, people are concerned about Lynch's many carries, but not Peterson? Lynch is safe. He was terrific last year. Not someone to target in dynasty formats, but he'll be terrific again this season.

Tier 3

Arian Foster, Houston Texans (7th RB, 7th overall): I certainly have a few reservations, but I have them with all the running backs from this point on. Yes, I could be convinced to go with Calvin Johnson seventh overall, but as of now, if I'm picking seventh, eighth, ninth or even 10th, it's a running back.

Alfred Morris, Washington (8th RB, 8th overall): It's a new offense, but the top running back on the team has been a consistent runner for two seasons. We just wish he'd catch passes. In standard formats, he's surely top-10.

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos (9th RB, 9th overall): I'm not saying he’ll do exactly whatKnowshon Moreno did in 2013 because if I believed that, then Ball would rank better. He'd be fifth or sixth. But I believe in him and, more important, the Broncos offense, though that offense will certainly regress.

DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (10th RB, 10th overall): He stayed healthy enough last year, and for those thinking the Dallas defense is so putrid that Tony Romo will throw 50 times per game and Murray's value will lessen, I think that's overthinking it. Teams want to run the ball, control the clock, etc.

Tier 4

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (11th RB, 13th overall): Perhaps he earns a one-game suspension for off-field decisions, but he's a big guy capable of scoring double-digit touchdowns, and I'm not particularly worried about a timeshare.

Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams (12th RB, 14th overall): So they lost their quarterback. Was their quarterback really that good? Stacy was very good the second half of last season, people.

Tier 5

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (13th RB, 19th overall): The main reason he doesn't rank better is because the team is likely to restrict his rushing attempts, just like last year. Still, there's major upside.

Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (14th RB, 20th overall): See Bernard. Same type of situation, same upside.

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15th RB, 21st overall): I admit I want to drop him more. Most people have him as a clear top-10 guy. I see risk with the quarterback, offensive line and the fact they will use other running backs. And the Bucs don't face Oakland (that's the team Martin incinerated his rookie year for 51 fantasy points).

Tier 6

Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions (16th RB, 26th overall): I think you can see the problem now. Depth is lacking at this position. Bush is a fine player, but sharing everything in this backfield.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (17th RB, 29th overall): Not a young man, but good enough to hold off challengers.

Rashad Jennings, New York Giants (18th RB, 31st overall): I'm seriously contemplating moving this guy up a tier and over Martin. The Giants will use him plenty, even as a receiver. Of course, Jennings has been around and never been "the guy" before.

Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (19th RB, 32nd overall): Had a terrific 2013 season, but it sure looks as though he'll lose touches.

C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills (20th RB, 33rd overall): Similar to Mathews except one of them was terrific last year. Spiller was not 100 percent healthy, but is he ever?

Tier 7

Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns (21st RB, 41st overall): Speaking of fellows who can't seem to stay healthy, Tate is the starter in Cleveland, but I predict a few missed contests.

Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars (22nd RB, 42nd overall): The former Peterson backup in Minnesota finally gets his chance. He probably deserves a better rank, but again, he's no lock for major production.

Joique Bell, Detroit Lions (23rd RB, 43rd overall): I suppose he's a backup by definition, but he finished 16th in standard running back scoring last year, and Bush ended up 12th. It can happen again.

Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (24th RB, 44th overall): Tough to be on board with him due to his health, but he did produce during the second half of 2013.

Chris Johnson, New York Jets (25th RB, 48th overall): He might deserve his own tier. So talented, but unless he's catching passes in open space, he doesn’t show it. Look for a clear timeshare in this backfield.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens (26th RB, 49th overall):From the top five overall to the seventh tier in one ugly, disastrous season. He'll be active in Week 3, but are the skills intact? I clearly have doubts.

Tier 8

Shane Vereen, New England Patriots (27th RB, 57th overall): We love the pass-catching ability, but whether he'll be used as more than that is problematic.

Stevan Ridley, Patriots (28th RB, 58th overall): We love the running ability, but whether he'll even make the team because of his fumbling issues is also a tad problematic.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Oakland Raiders (29th RB, 59th overall): Well, he is the highest-ranking Raiders running back, so that's special.

Tier 9

Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (30th RB, 63rd overall): I really don't expect him to contribute much the first month, but knowing that Shonn Greene is the starter, he'll get chances eventually. So be patient if you can.

Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (31st RB, 64th overall): I'm not a fan, ranking him worse than a rookie backup, but I could see him scoring touchdowns. The Browns were right about Richardson.

Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints (32nd RB, 65th overall): The defending champion in receptions by a running back, there's little reason to presume his role greatly adjusts. But not much standard upside, either.

Danny Woodhead, Chargers (33rd RB, 66th overall): A lot like Thomas in he catches passes, is far more valuable in PPR, but won't get many rushing attempts in a crowded backfield.

Darren Sproles, Eagles (34th RB, 67th overall): The former Saint and Charger still catches many passes, but unless McCoy gets hurt badly enough to miss games, the upside is muted.

Fred Jackson, Bills (35th RB, 68th overall): One might wonder why the No. 10 running back in 2013 standard formats is all the way down here. Well, like a tree, count the rings on his trunk. Not a young man, in football terms, nor is he durable.

Tier 10

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (36th RB, 69th overall): I want to move him up a lot, because the skills are there. But the past stats are so underwhelming. And the next guy is at least sharing with him.

Knowshon Moreno, Dolphins (37th RB, 70th overall): By now, everyone knows that he's left the Broncos and his numbers will look a lot different.

Tier 11

Khiry Robinson, Saints (38th RB, 84th overall): It's speculation that he gets enough chances for 800 rushing yards, and he literally did not catch a pass last season.

Shonn Greene, Titans (39th RB, 85th overall): Could plod his way to 1,000 yards, in theory.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (40th RB, 86th overall): An actual starting running back this late? Well, the quarterback runs quite a bit, too.

Bernard Pierce, Ravens (41st RB, 87th overall): Has an opportunity the first two weeks to take the job and run with it. Will he?

Chris Ivory, Jets (42nd RB, 91st overall): When healthy, he's really good. He just isn't healthy much.

Tier 12

Jeremy Hill, Bengals (43rd RB, 93rd overall): A rookie expected to play a role, but no guarantees.

Donald Brown, Chargers (44th RB, 101st overall): Maybe you'll use him in one week. Or if Mathews gets hurt, it could be more.

Terrance West, Browns (45th RB, 106th overall): If you don't believe in Tate, then move this guy up. The Cleveland offense, however, could have issues.

Darren McFadden, Raiders (46th RB, 107th overall): How many times must we hear about how great he looks in training camp? When will it finally end?

Mark Ingram, Saints (47th RB, 111th overall): He's had chances before, so it's tough to believe in him now.

Tier 13

LeGarrette Blount, Steelers (48th RB, 118th overall): Strictly a backup, but could be more valuable in touchdown-heavy formats.

Devonta Freeman, Falcons (49th RB, 119th overall): Young and inexperienced, but probably not next in line should Jackson fall apart (which I don't think he will).

Knile Davis, Chiefs (50th RB, 120th overall): So you think if Charles gets hurt this guy will simply step in and dominate the same way? Handcuff if you must, but it's a wasted pick.

Lance Dunbar, Cowboys (51st RB, 121st overall): I like his upside should Murray revert to old brittle form.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts (52nd RB, 122nd overall): And if you want to talk about brittle, look here. But Richardson is primed to be caught on the depth chart. Bradshaw should have a few interesting weeks in him.

Tre Mason, Rams (53rd RB, 123rd overall): Probably not next in line initially, by the way. And I like Stacy.

Carlos Hyde, 49ers (54th RB, 125th overall): Gore is gonna be fine yet again.

C.J. Anderson, Broncos (55th RB, 126th overall): Insurance for Montee, though he's third in line. He's just bigger than the guy who is second in line.

Tier 14

Roy Helu, Washington (56th RB, 131st overall): He'll catch the passes when Morris is off the field.

Jonathan Dwyer, Cardinals (57th RB, 134th overall): He'll run the ball when Ellington is off the field.

Jonathan Grimes, Texans (58th RB, 135th overall): The likely handcuff for Foster, move him up a bunch if you invested in Foster.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (59th RB, 136th overall): Hard to see much value left here.

Stepfan Taylor, Cardinals (60th RB, 139th overall): It's him or Dwyer. I picked Dwyer. But neither made the top 13 tiers so it's not really worth a major debate.

Mike Tolbert, Panthers (61st RB, 143rd overall): Yep, he's still playing football.

Jordan Todman, Jaguars (62nd RB, 150th overall): Gerhart might not be awesome, but he should be durable. In theory.

James White, Patriots (63rd RB, 152nd overall): Pretty off the radar, but we should know more about this situation this week. Could jump a lot.

James Starks, Packers (64th RB, 153rd overall): Lacy insurance, though he's failed when given regular chances.

Marcel Reece, Raiders (65th RB, 155th overall): He does a nice job catching passes.

Tier 15

Christine Michael, Seahawks (66th RB, 156th overall): He isn't Lynch's backup, despite the potential everyone seems to be raving about.

Andre Williams, Giants (67th RB, 158th overall): Elite college runner, but if he can't protect his QB, hard to see him playing much.

Brandon Bolden, Patriots (68th RB, 159th overall): As with teammate White, let's see what Bill Belichick does. This fellow could rise five tiers quickly.

Bryce Brown, Bills (69th RB, 160th overall): Former Eagle clearly third on depth chart, though the first two guys aren't so durable.

Robert Turbin, Seahawks (70th RB, 161st overall): Seems like a nice enough chap, with rather large arms.

Latavius Murray, Raiders (71st RB, 169th overall): Could be first-string quickly, but isn't this entire offense just a mess?

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals (72nd RB, 170th overall): One of us could be out of work by next week. And it's probably not me.

Juwan Thompson, Broncos (73rd RB, 171st overall): Long shot guy, but has size and can block.

Ka'Deem Carey, Bears (74th RB, 172nd overall): Looked good in college.

Others: Ronnie Hillman, Broncos; Chris Polk, Eagles; Shaun Draughn, Bears; Bobby Rainey, Buccaneers; Jerick McKinnon, Vikings; Benny Cunningham, Rams; Theo Riddick, Lions.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2014

[h=1]Separating quarterbacks into tiers

By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

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One of the reasons I tend to clump positions together in my rankings is because I use a tiered system to evaluate potential fantasy helpers. In other words, if several players offer similar value, they often become entangled in a tier and it's easier to figure out in the hustle and bustle of a draft or auction if there's a need to choose the last option from a certain tier, or simply wait for the next one to begin.
For example, you'll see below I view three quarterbacks as a top tier, and I rank them consecutively, but after that I see a considerable drop-off to another trio of passers. Do you react when a tier is nearing the end and potentially overpay, or exercise patience for the next one? And sometimes the drop from one tier to the next is extreme, out of the ordinary. These are draft-day dilemmas many of us deal with.
This is "Tiers Week" in the KaraBlog and we'll go position by position each day to analyze where the strengths and weaknesses of each position lie, plus compare players and comment. Position depth plays a role in how we construct a roster, not only in whether our team is shorthanded in a particular area, but whether the draft/auction pool is, as well. Use the many rankings and projections at ESPN Fantasy to form your own lists and then separate them into tiers, because planning ahead is critical and it makes draft day more fun. Plus, you want to do well, don't you?
We'll start with quarterbacks. By the way, these are simply my rankings by position and overall. If you want to make a certain record-setting Denver Broncos quarterback a first-rounder, then we clearly disagree. But your rankings, assuming you make some, are the ones that matter.
Tier 1

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (1st QB, 23rd overall): First thing you might notice is that Brees is my first quarterback off the board. I stick by it. Consistent every year, owns half the 5,000-yard passing seasons in history, doesn't get hurt and has plenty of weapons. And according to colleague KC Joyner, the Saints have the easiest schedule of pass defenses this season (my No. 3 QB has the toughest schedule, incidentally).
You might also notice the "overall" number on Brees is not in the first or second round in a 10-team league. It's by design. Folks, you certainly can win a league taking a quarterback in the first round, no doubt about it. But I want running backs and wide receivers early and my QB never comes from the first, or often the second, tier.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (2nd QB, 24th overall): I can't really find anything wrong with him, but I like Brees a tad better.
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (3rd QB, 25th overall): Whine and troll all you like on Twitter and in the conversation field below, but there are so many quarterbacks it's not worth using this early a pick on one. Plus, no QB coming off a 48-touchdown season or better has followed it with more than 30 touchdowns the next season, though that list is essentially two-deep since it's Dan Marino and Manning himself, with Tom Brady blowing out his knee after his monster campaign. Still, as noted, Denver's passing offense will see a totally different and challenging schedule, and that does matter. The running back is different, we have no idea about Wes Welker ... look, I came closer to dropping Manning to the next tier than moving him up.
Tier 2
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (4th QB, 52nd overall): Is the difference between this tier and the first one as great as I've made it seem? Probably not. But I'm far more likely to take a QB from this tier in this draft area. Keep doubting Luck all you like -- the arm, the weapons, the running ability -- but he's produced a pair of tremendous, valuable seasons and there's no end in sight.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (5th QB, 53rd overall): The new offense might not pass as much, but I think Stafford is a pretty safe bet with his Megatron and a pair of pass-catching running backs. And they got him a tight end to throw to.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (6th QB, 54th overall): I did not drop him one bit after seeing the news of his broken rib, which some might view as odd. Is he going to miss a game? As of now, I don't think so. Is he going to alter his style? As of now, I don't think so. Newton has gotten hit twice as much as any other QB over the past three seasons, yet he's been a top-4 QB when the season has ended each time. He's pretty safe.

Tier 3

Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (7th QB, 80th overall): No, I don't really believe he's an awesome player, but I believe any quarterback in this Chip Kelly system can make it seem that way. It's the system, silly, though this theory would really be tested if Foles got hurt and Mark Sanchez was summoned. Can you imagine? That said, I doubt Foles slips this far in a draft, which is just fine with me.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots(8th QB, 81st overall): It's still a nice bargain to get Brady here, and I admit I've moved him up my rankings recently. It's not because I think Rob Gronkowski is going to play all 16 games, either. Brady's second half of 2013 was really good and I trust this organization.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (9th QB, 82nd overall): He and his awesome wide receivers are healthy, and Ryan was a top-10 guy before. Draft-day tip: Don't spend a great amount of time analyzing last season's numbers. They will change.
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (10th QB, 83rd overall): Perhaps you don't want him in postseason pools, but he's been a top-10 fantasy regular-season QB four of five seasons, and he's going to do it again. He's perpetually underrated.
Tier 4
Robert Griffin III, Washington (11th QB, 88th overall): I have more concerns now than I did a few weeks ago, and not because a Super Bowl-winning QB from this organization's heyday decades ago said so. I can see it. Everyone can! RG III hasn't looked good at all, and maybe it's not that big a deal in August, but he looked uncomfortable last year, as well. I think the DeSean Jackson acquisition is overrated and this new offense is going to struggle. There's upside in RG III, and he's a worthy fantasy starter, but Griffin scares me and I'd be happy to let someone else deal with it and just take one of the others in this tier.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (12th QB, 89th overall): He seems to be outside everyone's top 10, but he managed to finish eighth in standard fantasy QB scoring last season. Some of that was based on durability but still, doesn't that matter? This is my "running QB tier" and it's worth pointing out that in general, I'm certainly more concerned with those that add value running the ball than I am with the pocket passers, due to the potential for a linebacker to split them in half. Except Newton. He's built like a linebacker. The guys in this tier are not.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (13th QB, 90th overall): Somewhat like RG III in that he's looked dreadful in August, and somewhat like Wilson in that he was a top-10 guy last year. This is your upside tier, but there's downside, too.

Tier 5

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (14th QB, 146th overall): Don't let the "overall" number fool you. He's a lot closer to Romo and Ryan than we think, but there's little reason to get both those fellows. You can wait on this tier. Some people want to choose a high-upside backup for their starter, especially if they figure they'll need them in only one week. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Cutler, in that offense, ends up a top-10 QB. But he can't miss games and has to keep the interceptions in check. OK, so maybe it would be a modest surprise.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers(15th QB, 147th overall): He's wondering what he did wrong to go from the No. 6 QB last season to this. He did nothing wrong! These guys are still reasonable fantasy starters, which again supports the point that choosing any QB in Round 1 goes against the supply/demand theory. Remember, a year ago Aaron Rodgers was a first-round pick. It wasn't just the injuries, people. He wasn't worth that much. Not remotely.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (16th QB, 148th overall): Would it surprise you more if Rivers or Dalton repeated their awesome 2013 seasons? For me, probably if Dalton did it. He's just not that good.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (17th QB, 149th overall): I draw the line at fantasy starter here. He finished 12th at QB last year, plenty of yards and scores.
Tier 6
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (18th QB, undrafted): Dolphins offensive coordinator Bill Lazor comes from Philadelphia and while it shouldn't look like that Eagles offense and doesn't have quite the weaponry, this isn't my fantasy starter, either. He's an upside reserve and safer than a rookie for sure.
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (19th QB): Doesn't put up flashy numbers, but also doesn't give the ball away and he runs more than most realize. No upside, however.
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (20th QB): The main difference in Palmer and Roethlisberger last season was the interceptions. I concede Palmer could have one more really nice season remaining.

Tier 7

Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns(21st QB): I'm not likely to get him and hey, that's fine with me. But if a top-6 guy is your starter, might as well take a chance on the highest of upside options. I acknowledge that, at least. And I don't care if he plays in September, either. In fact, don't play! I mean, isn't an Eli Manning type always going to be sitting on free agency anyway in case, or when, Manziel fails miserably?
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (22nd QB): Yes, a Super Bowl-winning QB comes after the brash rookie. Super Bowls don't mean much for fantasy purposes. Flacco has yet to throw for 4,000 yards in a season.
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (23rd QB): Sure, why not? He showed some signs. But he'll probably be on the waiver wire a month in.
Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24th QB): Nice weapons, but could be running for his life behind that offensive -- and I do mean offensive -- line. I liked McCown more a month ago.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans (25th QB): Fun fact, but this fellow has just as many seasons with 23 or more touchdown passes in the past four seasons as Peyton Manning. But the similarities end there, of course. Perhaps it's time for us to cease discussing quarterbacks. Feel free to throw Eli Manning of the New York Giants, Jake Locker of theTennessee Titans, Geno Smith of the New York Jets and Matt Cassel of the Minnesota Vikings in this tier, as well. Sam Bradford of the St. Louis Rams would have been here, and I could easily replace him with Shaun Hill, but 25 seems to be enough passers. Well, now it's 30.

Wednesday, we tier up the running backs.

HacheMan · Sep 2, 2014

[h=1]The TMR 200: Week 1 rankings[/h]
By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

So, there's a very good chance this is all a terrible idea. Just warning you up front.

Hiya kids. Your friendly neighborhood TMR here, welcoming you to the 2014 fantasy football season. I know, some of you haven't drafted yet, some of you don't think the season starts until Thursday and some of you just don't think I'm all that friendly. I hears ya, and I don't disagree.
But, these days, there's some here changes round these parts, not the least of which is that I have decided to write in some sort of weird old-timey Western slang, as if I'm in a bad John Wayne movie. Hmm. Well, that's what you get when you spend a good part of your Labor Day ranking 200 players. For one week.
What?
You heard me. Not just a device for last week's bold prediction column but rather a way to introduce this new thing we are trying. My weekly rankings. Actually, my top 200 weekly rankings. Actually, my top 200 weekly rankings done flex style, with all positions ranked together. Actually, my top 200 weekly rankings done flex style, with all positions ranked together, published on Tuesday every week.
That's what we are doing this year. Unless this turns out to be a huge disaster, in which case I am totally bailing. But in the meantime, I am giving this a go.
The idea was, simply, "Hey, you're not doing baseball anymore ya lout, why don't you earn a paycheck for once?" Er, rather, the idea was that I often get flex questions that could not be answered by the way I did my ranks previously. And the ESPN game does have an option for "OP" or offensive player. Which means you could start two quarterbacks if you wanted. And we have seen an increase in two-QB leagues.
So here is my humble attempt at solving all those issues. It's the first time we are trying this, it's very early in Week 1 and it's on a short week to boot, so this will be a work in progress. Not just the actual rankings, which of course will change as the week goes on, but how we present it, what we offer, etc., etc. But the current plan is that every Tuesday afternoon, my top 200 rankings will appear with a very short intro piece from me. Oh, and a video. We're pushing video this year. Please feel free to support us and click. I couldn't care less if you watch it. We just need the click. Or someone needs the click. I assume it's us. Maybe not. Let me check and get back to you on that.
Some housekeeping: Please read or keep your dumb comments to yourself.
1. These ranks -- like all my ranks and analysis -- are geared specifically toward ESPN standard 10-team leagues, where you get four points per touchdown pass and it is NOT a PPR league.
2. That said, I did 200, which hopefully will help those in deeper leagues, two-QB leagues and potentially help find some good bargains for those of you who play daily fantasy sports. Because quarterbacks score so many points (and have the highest potential to go off on a given week), it's no surprise they dominate the top of the weekly rankings.

3. Part of the reason we are doing these on Tuesday is that we have no interest in me having any free time on Monday whatsoever. Ha! Just kidding! Probably! The benefit to Tuesday is that by seeing the ranks early, this will help inform your free-agent pick-ups before the Wednesday morning deadline on ESPN. For example, this week some defenses that are unowned in a lot of leagues, such as the Jets, Eagles, Bears and Lions, show up fairly high in the ranks. I'll also try to highlight some of those lesser-owned players in this little intro going forward.
4. As I said, this is a work in progress. Just like me. Feel free to send feedback about the format, what you'd like to see, what you don't want. Best way to reach me is Twitter or Facebook.
Thanks for reading. This is still probably a terrible idea.
[h=3]Matthew Berry's Top 200 for Week 1[/h]

Rank	Player, team	Pos. Rank	Opponent

1	Peyton Manning, Den	QB1	Colts
2	Drew Brees, NO	QB2	@Falcons
3	Nick Foles, Phi	QB3	Jaguars
4	Colin Kaepernick, SF	QB4	@Cowboys
5	Jamaal Charles, KC	RB1	Titans
6	LeSean McCoy, Phi	RB2	Jaguars
7	Andrew Luck, Ind	QB5	@Broncos
8	Aaron Rodgers, GB	QB6	@Seahawks
9	Jay Cutler, Chi	QB7	Bills
10	Russell Wilson, Sea	QB8	Packers
11	Matthew Stafford, Det	QB9	Giants
12	Calvin Johnson, Det	WR1	Giants
13	Adrian Peterson, Min	RB3	@Rams
14	Tom Brady, NE	QB10	@Miami
15	Tony Romo, Dal	QB11	49ers
16	Cam Newton, Car	QB12	@Bucs
17	Philip Rivers, SD	QB13	@Cardinals
18	Arian Foster, Hou	RB4	Redskins
19	Montee Ball, Den	RB5	Colts
20	Robert Griffin III, Was	QB14	@Texans
21	Marshawn Lynch, Sea	RB6	Packers
22	Demaryius Thomas, Den	WR2	Colts
23	Matt Ryan, Atl	QB15	Saints
24	Carson Palmer, Ari	QB16	Chargers
25	Dez Bryant, Dal	WR3	49ers
26	Jimmy Graham, NO	TE1	@Falcons
27	Alex Smith, KC	QB17	Titans
28	Matt Forte, Chi	RB7	Bills
29	Geno Smith, NYJ	QB18	Raiders
30	Shaun Hill, StL	QB19	Vikings
31	Ben Roethlisberger, Pit	QB20	Browns
32	Jake Locker, Ten	QB21	@Chiefs
33	Julio Jones, Atl	WR4	Saints
34	Brandon Marshall, Chi	WR5	Bills
35	A.J. Green, Cin	WR6	@Ravens
36	Rob Gronkowski, NE	TE2	@Miami
37	DeMarco Murray, Dal	RB8	49ers
38	Frank Gore, SF	RB9	@Cowboys
39	Andy Dalton, Cin	QB22	@Ravens
40	Percy Harvin, Sea	WR7	Packers
41	Alshon Jeffery, Chi	WR8	Bills
42	Randall Cobb, GB	WR9	@Seahawks
43	Jordy Nelson, GB	WR10	@Seahawks
44	Antonio Brown, Pit	WR11	Browns
45	Julius Thomas, Den	TE3	Colts
46	Keenan Allen, SD	WR12	@Cardinals
47	Eddie Lacy, GB	RB10	@Seahawks
48	Joe Flacco, Bal	QB23	Bengals
49	Ryan Fitzpatrick, Hou	QB24	Redskins
50	Ryan Tannehill, Mia	QB25	Patriots
51	Giovani Bernard, Cin	RB11	@Ravens
52	Andre Ellington, Ari	RB12	Chargers
53	Andre Johnson, Hou	WR13	Redskins
54	Alfred Morris, Was	RB13	@Texans
55	Jordan Cameron, Cle	TE4	@Steelers
56	Emmanuel Sanders, Den	WR14	Colts
57	Michael Crabtree, SF	WR15	@Cowboys
58	Zac Stacy, StL	RB14	Vikings
59	Le'Veon Bell, Pit	RB15	Browns
60	Shane Vereen, NE	RB16	@Miami
61	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari	WR16	Chargers
62	Michael Floyd, Ari	WR17	Chargers
63	Cordarrelle Patterson, Min	WR18	@Rams
64	Marques Colston, NO	WR19	@Falcons
65	Doug Martin, TB	RB17	Panthers
66	Pierre Garcon, Was	WR20	@Texans
67	Torrey Smith, Bal	WR21	Bengals
68	Joique Bell, Det	RB18	Giants
69	Jeremy Maclin, Phi	WR22	Jaguars
70	Victor Cruz, NYG	WR23	@Lions
71	Vincent Jackson, TB	WR24	Panthers
72	Ben Tate, Cle	RB19	@Steelers
73	Vernon Davis, SF	TE5	@Cowboys
74	Toby Gerhart, Jac	RB20	@Eagles
75	Steven Jackson, Atl	RB21	Saints
76	Ryan Mathews, SD	RB22	@Cardinals
77	Roddy White, Atl	WR25	Saints
78	Rashad Jennings, NYG	RB23	@Lions
79	Chris Johnson, NYJ	RB24	Raiders
80	Reggie Bush, Det	RB25	Giants
81	C.J. Spiller, Buf	RB26	@Bears
82	Reggie Wayne, Ind	WR26	@Broncos
83	Mike Wallace, Mia	WR27	Patriots
84	DeSean Jackson, Was	WR28	@Texans
85	Eric Decker, NYJ	WR29	Raiders
86	Kendall Wright, Ten	WR30	@Chiefs
87	Brandin Cooks, NO	WR31	@Falcons
88	Cecil Shorts, Jac	WR32	@Eagles
89	Julian Edelman, NE	WR33	@Miami
90	Pierre Thomas, NO	RB27	@Falcons
91	Bernard Pierce, Bal	RB28	Bengals
92	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou	WR34	Redskins
93	Wes Welker, Den	WR35	Colts
94	Greg Olsen, Car	TE6	@Bucs
95	Antonio Gates, SD	TE7	@Cardinals
96	Riley Cooper, Phi	WR36	Jaguars
97	Fred Jackson, Buf	RB29	@Bears
98	Stevan Ridley, NE	RB30	@Miami
99	Anquan Boldin, SF	WR37	@Cowboys
100	Trent Richardson, Ind	RB31	@Broncos
101	Zach Ertz, Phi	TE8	Jaguars
102	Maurice Jones-Drew, Oak	RB32	@Jets
103	Golden Tate, Det	WR38	Giants
104	T.Y. Hilton, Ind	WR39	@Broncos
105	Terrance Williams, Dal	WR40	49ers
106	Kelvin Benjamin, Car	WR41	@Bucs
107	Sammy Watkins, Buf	WR42	@Bears
108	Rueben Randle, NYG	WR43	@Lions
109	Malcom Floyd, SD	WR44	@Cardinals
110	Darren Sproles, Phi	RB33	Jaguars
111	Knowshon Moreno, Mia	RB34	Patriots
112	Lamar Miller, Mia	RB35	Patriots
113	Dennis Pitta, Bal	TE9	Bengals
114	Jordan Reed, Was	TE10	@Texans
115	Greg Jennings, Min	WR45	@Rams
116	Shonn Greene, Ten	RB36	@Chiefs
117	Bishop Sankey, Ten	RB37	@Chiefs
118	Andrew Hawkins, Cle	WR46	@Steelers
119	Markus Wheaton, Pit	WR47	Browns
120	Danny Woodhead, SD	RB38	@Cardinals
121	Mike Evans, TB	WR48	Panthers
122	Kyle Rudolph, Min	TE11	@Rams
123	Justin Hunter, Ten	WR49	@Chiefs
124	LeGarrette Blount, Pit	RB39	Browns
125	Brian Hartline, Mia	WR50	Patriots
126	Martellus Bennett, Chi	TE12	Bills
127	Kenny Britt, StL	WR51	Vikings
128	Coby Fleener, Ind	TE13	@Broncos
129	Jason Witten, Dal	TE14	49ers
130	Heath Miller, Pit	TE15	Browns
131	Aaron Dobson, NE	WR52	@Miami
132	James Jones, Oak	WR53	@Jets
133	Mike Williams, Buf	WR54	@Bears
134	Carlos Hyde, SF	RB40	@Cowboys
135	Doug Baldwin, Sea	WR55	Packers
136	Jeremy Hill, Cin	RB41	@Ravens
137	Chris Ivory, NYJ	RB42	Raiders
138	Mark Ingram, NO	RB43	@Falcons
139	Khiry Robinson, NO	RB44	@Falcons
140	Darren McFadden, Oak	RB45	@Jets
141	Benny Cunningham, StL	RB46	Vikings
142	Donnie Avery, KC	WR56	Titans
143	Nate Washington, Ten	WR57	@Chiefs
144	Steve Smith, Bal	WR58	Bengals
145	Mohamed Sanu, Cin	WR59	@Ravens
146	Lance Moore, Pit	WR60	Browns
147	Jonathan Stewart, Car	RB47	@Bucs
148	Kenny Stills, NO	WR61	@Falcons
149	DeAngelo Williams, Car	RB48	@Bucs
150	Andre Williams, NYG	RB49	@Lions
151	Jermaine Kearse, Sea	WR62	Packers
152	Roy Helu, Was	RB50	@Texans
153	Tavon Austin, StL	WR63	Vikings
154	Dexter McCluster, Ten	WR64	@Chiefs
155	Donald Brown, SD	RB51	@Cardinals
156	Bobby Rainey, TB	RB52	Panthers
157	Jarrett Boykin, GB	WR65	@Seahawks
158	Marqise Lee, Jac	WR66	@Eagles
159	Harry Douglas, Atl	WR67	Saints
160	Charles Clay, Mia	TE16	Patriots
161	Miles Austin, Cle	WR68	@Steelers
162	Jerricho Cotchery, Car	WR69	@Bucs
163	Jeremy Kerley, NYJ	WR70	Raiders
164	Travis Kelce, KC	TE17	Titans
165	Ladarius Green, SD	TE18	@Cardinals
166	Jordan Matthews, Phi	WR71	Jaguars
167	Lance Dunbar, Dal	RB53	49ers
168	Tyler Eifert, Cin	TE19	@Ravens
169	Dwayne Allen, Ind	TE20	@Broncos
170	Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB	TE21	Panthers
171	Jonathan Grimes, HOU	RB54	Redskins
172	Timothy Wright, NE	TE22	@Miami
173	Mike Tolbert, Car	RB55	@Bucs
174	Robert Woods, Buf	WR72	@Bears
175	Bryce Brown, Buf	RB56	@Bears
176	Eric Ebron, Det	TE23	Giants
177	Carolina Panthers	DST1	@Bucs
178	Seattle Seahawks	DST2	Packers
179	Chicago Bears	DST3	Bills
180	New York Jets	DST4	Raiders
181	Philadelphia Eagles	DST5	Jaguars
182	New England Patriots	DST6	@Miami
183	Detroit Lions	DST7	Giants
184	Cincinnati Bengals	DST8	@Ravens
185	Kansas City Chiefs	DST9	Titans
186	Cleveland Browns	DST10	@Steelers
187	Pittsburgh Steelers	DST11	Browns
188	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	DST12	Panthers
189	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	K1	@Miami
190	Justin Tucker, Bal	K2	Bengals
191	Mason Crosby, GB	K3	@Seahawks
192	Adam Vinatieri, Ind	K4	@Broncos
193	Matt Bryant, Atl	K5	Saints
194	Nick Novak, SD	K6	@Cardinals
195	Dan Bailey, Dal	K7	49ers
196	Graham Gano, Car	K8	@Bucs
197	Phil Dawson, SF	K9	@Cowboys
198	Steven Hauschka, Sea	K10	Packers
199	Robbie Gould, Chi	K11	Bills
200	Blair Walsh, Min	K12	@Rams

HacheMan · Sep 2, 2014

[h=1]The origins of 'You Heard Me'[/h]By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

I miss the room.

I should rephrase that. I miss "the room." That's what sitcom writers call the conference room where they would all gather every day. All day, every day, you are in "the room." Pitching jokes, breaking stories, rewriting scripts -- it can be exhausting, but it's awesome. You just laugh and laugh all day long.
Because you are stuck in the same small room with the same people every day -- often for 10 hours or more a day -- pretty much everything goes. It's a creative environment, so ideally everyone should feel free to pitch whatever idea or joke, no matter how outlandish, because you never know what will spark something or lead down the path to where you need to go.
One of the many failed sitcoms I wrote on was called "Union Square," and it was one of those terrible Thursday night sitcoms between "Friends" and "Seinfeld." There were a lot of reasons it failed, and I learned a lot about what not to do on a sitcom there (that's a whole other column). But it didn't fail because the writing staff wasn't funny. There were some hilarious guys on that staff, including a writer/actor named George McGrath. George has done tons of things, including writing and producing with Tracey Ullman on "Tracey Takes On," but he is probably best known for co-writing a ton of the old "Pee-wee's Playhouse" stuff with Paul Reubens. He was also the voice of Globey among others.
Anyway, George is hilarious, and I loved working with him. And he would often pitch the most outlandish things. Most of them are unprintable here, and what is printable I've forgotten in the many years it's been since that show. But one thing that has always stuck with me was his attitude. He'd pitch something insane -- like, I'm making this up now, but something like:
George: What if Gaby discovers she was actually born a man?
(Rest of room stares at George. George stares right back.)
George: You heard me.
Both playful and defiant at the same time, I loved how he just owned it. Most times, when a pitch falls dead, writers would quickly backtrack. My go-to after I pitched a joke that bombed was to say, "Or we could do something funny. That's another way to go."
George never backed down. He just owned it.
"You heard me."
As regular readers of this column know, I have hijacked that phrase and embraced that attitude for my bold predictions column. You are now reading the seventh annual football edition.
Now, to truly be a bold prediction, it needs to be, well, bold. Peyton Manning will throw over 40 touchdowns this year is not only not bold, it's actually much more likely to happen than not. A bold prediction would be to say Peyton Manning will play all 16 games and yet throw for only 20 touchdowns. That is very unlikely to happen.
I've made a ton of predictions this preseason and, while the odds say it's unlikely all of them will come true, they are steeped in research, scouting and facts that suggest they are much more likely to happen than not.
The idea for this column is not to nail low-percentage outrageous predictions, but rather to highlight players I have strong feelings about, one way or the other. These are scenarios that are not likely to come to pass, but they aren't impossible, either. And frankly, it's not important whether I get it right. You heard me. For your consideration: In last year's edition, I said Matt Forte would gain over 2,000 all-purpose yards and score double-digit touchdowns. I got the scores right (12), but he finished with 1,933 all-purpose yards, so technically, I got it wrong. But considering Forte went in the third round and finished as the No. 3 running back, folks who were bullish on Forte like I was made out pretty well on that pick.

In this column last year, I nailed things that were not obvious: Eddie Lacy as a top-10 running back, Knowshon Moreno leading the Broncos' running backs in fantasy points, and big years for Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, the Bengals defense, Cordarrelle Patterson, Antonio Brown and Carson Palmer.
Of course, I also predicted huge years for Lamar Miller, Aldrick Robinson and David Wilson, and I was down on DeMarco Murray. Among other misses. So yeah ... be warned. This is high-risk, high-reward territory we are entering. Please use this column as intended: to highlight players I have a strong feeling about one way or the other, to make you feel better about your own predictions and to subtly remind you that I have a premium fantasy football site called RotoPass.com, now with a fancy box to the right!
So here ya go. One bold prediction per NFL team, in alphabetical order, with my thinking behind it. You heard me.
[h=3]You Heard Me 2014:[/h]Arizona Cardinals: I say Michael Floyd, currently being drafted 32 picks after Larry Fitzgerald, finishes at least 10 spots higher than him in total fantasy points among WR. My thinking: This isn't even all that bold, but what I am gonna do? Talk about Andre Ellingtonfor the fifth straight column? Floyd had more yards last year than Fitz on 17 fewer targets. The difference was touchdowns, which are fluky. Can't see Fitzgerald scoring twice as many touchdowns this like he did last year, especially given how much downfield throwing they want to do this year. Take two touchdowns away from Fitz and give them to Floyd and you have Keenan Allen.
Atlanta Falcons: I say Steven Jackson, currently going 28th among running backs, has one more great year left in him and finishes the year as a top-12 running back. My thinking: Six scores in the final six games last year in a lost season behind a terrible offensive line showed what he could do in this offense if he can stay healthy. That's the concern, of course, but hey, this is bold prediction time. He stays healthy and has a big year. If I keep writing it, it eventually comes true, right?
Baltimore Ravens: I say Torrey Smith is a top-10 wide receiver this year. My thinking: Same as hinted at in 100 Facts and written about in Love/Hate. Perfect fit for Gary Kubiak's offense, he's improved every year and just got unlucky with the touchdowns last season. Big year coming.
Buffalo Bills: I say Mike Williams, currently being drafted 71st among wideouts, is the highest-scoring fantasy wide receiver on the team. You heard me. Hey, these are supposed to be bold. My thinking: Love me some Sammy Watkins, but he will immediately be a focal point for team defenses. How effective will EJ Manuel be in getting him the ball? Meanwhile, Williams is good red zone threat (as our player card notes, his 2.7 fantasy points per game on red zone passes since 2012 is 15th among WRs) and I could totally see us looking up at the end of the year and him having some sort of Jerricho Cotchery "how the hell did that happen?" 10-touchdown kind of year. Fantasy zombie.
Carolina Panthers: I say Cam Newton finishes outside the top 10 at quarterback. My thinking: It would be his first year outside the top four in ESPN standard scoring, but the number that makes me nervous is 467. Counting sacks, hits while throwing and hits while running, Cam Newton has been pounded 467 times the last three seasons. Twice as muchas any other quarterback. The next-most is Ryan Fitzpatrick with 230. Cam's fantasy production is dependent on his willingness to get hit, while running, at the goal line. If he eases up even a little, for any reason. ...
Chicago Bears: I say Jay Cutler is a top-5 fantasy QB this year. My thinking: The Bears' offense has that kind of pop. Cutler and Josh McCown combined would have had the third-most fantasy points among quarterbacks last season. He just needs to stay upright.
Cincinnati Bengals: I say double-digit rushing touchdowns for Giovani Bernard. My thinking:Much better inside runner than he gets credit for, the fear over Jeremy Hill is overblown. Four of his five rushing scores last year came inside an opponent's 10-yard line, so we've seen him get and convert the opportunities.
Cleveland Browns: I say Johnny Manziel finishes the year as a top-15 fantasy quarterback.My thinking: I'm kinda all-in on Johnny Football at this point. Watch him start in Week 5.

Dallas Cowboys: Eighteen touchdowns for Dez Bryant. You heard me. My thinking: Had 13 last year and actually got unlucky. Scott Linehan (and that terrible defense) is gonna have them throwing a ton.

Denver Broncos: Montee Ball is the No. 1 running back in fantasy this year. My thinking: With a better defense and Peyton already having the record, the Broncos lean more on the run game this year, and that means tons of yards and touchdowns for Ball.
Detroit Lions: Joique Bell not only has more touchdowns and yardage than Reggie Bush, he also has more receptions and is the better PPR play. My thinking: Actually has more receptions the last two years than Bush. That's skewed by the fact that Bush played in Miami one of those years and wasn't used in the passing game, but still. They gave the money to Joique, he's a better fit for Detroit's new offense and I just don't like Reggie Bush very much.
Green Bay Packers: Jordy Nelson is the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy. My thinking: Has the talent, the quarterback and the offensive scheme to get there, just needs to play all 16. With a viable run game, the Packers will get to sell their play-action to go over the top to Jordy.
Houston Texans: The Texans' running back with the most fantasy points this season turns out to be Alfred Blue. My thinking: Arian Foster is a health risk, of course, and it's not like Jonathan Grimeshas a long track record. Alfred Blue keeps drawing rave reviews.
Indianapolis Colts: Trent Richardson, currently being drafted at 21st among running backs, finishes outside the top 40 of fantasy running backs. My thinking: The line looks terrible, and so does he.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Cecil Shorts III, currently going as the 38th wideout off the board, has eight touchdowns and over 1,000 yards, which is what Keenan Allen did last year. You heard me. My thinking: Shorts is finally healthy, and whether it's Chad Henne or Blake Bortles, the Jags are going to be decent this year. Not amazing, but not a joke either.
Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce, currently being undrafted, finishes the year as a top-12 tight end. My thinking: Finally healthy, had a monster preseason, and they don't have a lot of other options to throw to.
Miami Dolphins: Mike Wallace, currently WR 35 in average drafts, finishes the year as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver. My thinking: Playing the "DeSean Jackson role" in Bill Lazor's offense imported from Philly, they will move him all over the field and take shots deep. He's by far the most talented offensive player they have and they know it, so expect them to feed him the ball.
Minnesota Vikings: Cordarrelle Patterson is a top-5 fantasy wide receiver. My thinking: A perfect fit for Norv Turner's offense and off-the-charts physical skills, he was productive last year with a terrible offensive coordinator and questionable QB play. All those things are improved this year. LOVE.
New England Patriots: Shane Vereen is a top-10 fantasy running back. My thinking: Has the ability to be a three-down back, just hasn't gotten the chance. With only fumble-proneStevan Ridley, uninspiring Brandon Bolden and some unproven rookies to compete with, Vareen has a clear path to the most playing time he's had in his career. And we know New England running backs will score.
New Orleans Saints: Pierre Thomas breaks the single-season reception record by a running back (currently 101 by Larry Centers in 1995). My thinking: Caught 77 balls last year, and the 89 targets to Darren Sproles are now up for grabs. Don't believe in the pass-catching ability of Mark Ingram or Khiry Robinson, and Brandin Cooks will take only so many of those Sproles targets.
New York Giants: Double-digit touchdowns for Rueben Randle. My thinking: He's the best red zone threat they have, and they can't possibly be this bad. Right?
New York Jets: Geno Smith is a top-12 fantasy QB. You heard me. My thinking: Showed that kind of ability last year in flashes (five different 20-point games, more than Andrew Luck or Tony Romo, same as Newton and Russell Wilson). The Jets added weapons in offseason, he has looked good in preseason, and it's not uncommon for quarterbacks to take a big step forward in their second seasons.
Oakland Raiders: Maurice Jones-Drew, currently going 31st among running backs, is a top 15 fantasy back. My thinking: Healthy again, he's been a top-10 back on teams that were worse than the Raiders will be this year.
Philadelphia Eagles: The highest-scoring fantasy pass-catcher on the Eagles this year isZach Ertz. You heard me. My thinking: Jeremy Maclin can't stay healthy, Riley Cooper is inconsistent and Ertz is a physical beast (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) who will be a big part of the offense and the best red zone threat at Chip Kelly's disposal.
Pittsburgh Steelers: I say 900 yards and six scores for Markus Wheaton, which would likely make him a top-30 wideout. My thinking: No Emmanuel Sanders or Jerricho Cotchery, I'm not a Lance Moore believer and they will be throwing. A lot.
San Diego Chargers: I say Donald Brown, currently going nine rounds after Ryan Mathews, is the highest-scoring running back on the team. My thinking: Mathews has issues with health and hanging onto the ball.
San Francisco 49ers: I say Vernon Davis is not a top-10 tight end. My thinking: He's very touchdown-dependent for his fantasy value and, with a full season of Michael Crabtree,Anquan Boldin back and the addition of Steve Johnson, I don't see him getting nearly as many targets, in the red zone or otherwise.
St. Louis Rams: Shaun Hill finishes as a top-20 fantasy QB. My thinking: There's really not a lot I believe in on this Rams team. Love Zac Stacy, good defense, the wideouts have some upside, but I can't bring myself to think any of them do something special. But it'll be a nice offense, and Hill is a lot better than people think.
Seattle Seahawks: I say Marshawn Lynch is the biggest bust of all the guys currently going in the first round. My thinking: I still believe in everything I wrote in Love/Hate.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I say Mike Evans is the highest-scoring fantasy rookie wideout. My thinking: Everyone is talking about Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin is getting a lot of love and Sammy Watkins is in the conversation, but no one seems to be really talking about a 6-foot-5 guy who is the No. 2 receiver in a passing attack that features a QB who loves to throw a jump ball.
Tennessee Titans: I say Jake Locker, Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter all outperform their ADP by 20 spots each, 15 for Locker. (Locker QB 27, Wright WR 34 and Hunter WR 49). My thinking: In Ken Whisenhunt I believe. Don't feel great about their run game, but with health and a little luck, these parts of the passing game will build on last year's success.

Washington: I say Robert Griffin III is a top-5 fantasy quarterback. My thinking: It's just preseason. I understand the criticism, but all the offseason additions (players and coaches), a full year of Jordan Reed and finally back to full health, the rushing and pass-happy play calling vaults him into the top 5.