Fantasy Basketball News 2010/2011

[HacheMan]

CP3 to the Magic?
CP3 & Friends

Chris Paul, who appears to desperately want to join LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami at some point down the road, is now putting serious heat on the Hornets to trade him. His people are also leaking that the Magic are his No. 1 choice, followed by the Knicks, Blazers and Mavericks.

Paul believes the Magic have enough trade assets to get a deal done, and the fact that he would be dishing to Dwight Howard doesn't hurt either. Many folks believe Paul has already played his last game for the Hornets, but it's really in ownership's hands at this point. And since they've rarely made smart decisions, chances are they'll screw this one up too.

But what is the right answer? It depends on what Paul's next move might be. If he continues to demand a trade and the fan base turns on him, which is the road he's apparently going down, it's over and the Hornets will have to move him. But if the two sides meet face-to-face and CP3 likes what he hears, things might get worked out before too much damage is done, and he'll stay in New Orleans.

What I don't understand is why Paul is continuing to lust after the South Beach 3 after seeing how sick and tired most of the free world is of their act. Paul always seemed more like Kevin Durant, who can't seem to do anything wrong right now. But I really think Paul is hell bent on getting out of New Orleans, playing out his contract wherever, and then signing for whatever money is left in Miami in two years.

Is a true super team bad for the NBA? Probably, but the concept doesn't really bother me, and I will watch their games, hoping they lose. What does bother me, though, is the way everything was put together and the attitudes displayed by the South Beach 3. They've become more annoying than I thought was possible and it makes me cringe to think that Paul may be joining the mix. But it looks like that's where we're headed. Now let's just hope that Kevin Durant stays humble and cool throughout the rest of his career.

Mock Draft

I had a mock draft recently but the results are being saved for the Rotoworld Draft Guide Magazine, which is due to the printer in the near future. However, I will share my team with you and some quick thoughts on the overall draft, as well as all of my players. Nine cats, 12 teams, 13 rounds, I had pick No. 11.

Round 1. Stephen Curry - I was thrilled to see him "fall" to No. 11 and felt it was a no-brainer to take Curry here. My pre-draft plan was Curry or Deron Williams at 11 and then hoping Amare Stoudemire would drop to No. 14 for me...

Round 2. Amare Stoudemire - And he did. Amare + New York Knicks divided by Mike D'Antoni should = Gold.

Round 3. Russell Westbrook - Westbrook doesn't hit threes, which bugs me, but hopefully I can make up for it later. I figure with Curry and Westbrook, my point guard situation is in good shape.

Round 4. Andrea Bargnani - I needed threes and Amare's not the best shot blocker around. Killed two birds with one stone, and am hoping the absence of Chris Bosh means a few more boards for Bargnani this season.

Round 5. Anthony Randolph - Randolph is going to get major run with the Knicks, should block a ton of shots and actually has the ability to log some triple-doubles. He's risky, but he would have gone in the next few picks if I didn't snag him here. If healthy, he should be a beast.

Round 6. Paul Pierce - Pierce in the sixth round might be the textbook definition of 'value pick.'

Round 7. Samuel Dalembert - Sammy D was highly coveted by the Kings and they got their man. The presence of DeMarcus Cousins scares me a little, but the Kings got Sammy so he could start and run in the Kings' fast-paced offense.

Round 8. Carl Landry - Probably my least favorite pick. He doesn't block shots, but looks like the possible starting small forward for the Kings. Serious double-double potential with a few blocks thrown in.

Round 9. Boris Diaw - Another value pick that's not going to hurt me anywhere, and should help me in most categories.

Round 10. Rodney Stuckey - Felt like I needed another point guard, just in case. Round 10 for Stuckey means he came with no risk.

Round 11. Amir Johnson - Johnson will take over for Chris Bosh in Toronto and should have a nice season. Lots of upside and no risk this late.

Round 12. Jeff Teague - Teague and Mike Bibby will split point guard minutes in Atlanta and Teague could even start. Had I realized Tiago Splitter was there (poor planning on my part, not in the database yet), he would have easily been my pick here.

Round 13. Erick Dampier - Starting center in Charlotte, might have a little gas left in the tank. Zero upside, but pickings were slim at this point.

Other Draft Notes

The first round went Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Danny Granger, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Stephen Curry and Steve Nash.

I'm good with the first four, but I would have taken Kobe before both Wade and Granger, and was absolutely thrilled to see Curry at 11.

Tyreke Evans went early in Round 2, as did Dwight Howard, but in nine-cat Roto leagues it probably doesn't make sense. Howard's FTP and TOs are dreadful, while Evans didn't hit many threes last year, committed three TOs per game and isn't a particularly good free throw shooter. Evans has the potential to improve his FTs and threes this year, but I still think Round 2 is probably too high for him.

Because I know you're dying to know, Chris Bosh went middle of Round 3.

Yao Ming went in Round 4, which is pretty friggin' high since he's averaged 40 games in his last four seasons. Yes, he didn't even play last year, but the average over the previous three seasons isn't much better at 53 games per. Let someone else deal with that headache.

John Wall was taken with the first pick of Round 5, and based on how some of last year's rookies fared (Curry, Evans, etc.) I have no problem with Wall this high. Raymond Felton and Andray Blatche both went in Round 5 as well. Felton is expected to do big things for Mike D'Antoni and the Knicks (barring the arrival of CP3), while Blatche was an absolute beast for much of last season. I don't really trust Blatche, especially with JaVale McGee starting to come on, but Blatche should still have a very productive season. I just think Round 5 might be a round or two early.

DeMarcus Cousins, Blake Griffin, Gilbert Arenas, Brandon Jennings and Paul Millsap all went in Round 6.

Caron Butler fell all the way to Round 7, along with Shawn Marion. Playing with Dirk Nowitzki is apparently a fantasy death wish.

J.J. Hickson went in Round 8. He's quickly become one of my favorite sleepers and I was not happy when he disappeared from the board before my pick.

Mehmet Okur was taken in Round 9, in front of Jose Calderon, whose stock dropped through the floor this year. Calderon is going to be better than a ninth-round pick, while Okur, who will likely come off the bench, will be worse.

Mike Miller was taken in Round 10, and I can't wait to see how many threes he hits this year in Miami. He should lead the league in treys, if he can stay healthy.

Leandro Barbosa went in Round 11 and he could have a big season for the Raptors.

Tiago Splitter went in Round 13 and I simply forgot about him. He wasn't in the database we were using, which didn't help my cause. I'm going to probably be targeting him around Round 9 in future drafts. I believe the hype and am excited to see him play this season.
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Twitter Questions

How is David Kahn an NBA GM? He is a complete joke and is making it so hard to be a Wolves fan.
@cbarghini2

Possibly my favorite question, and one I ask myself daily. But just like it was fun having Isiah Thomas around for constant joke opportunities and unintentional humor, Kahn is filling the void well. He said 'methinks' the other day, which was money, said Beasley's been smoking too much weed over the last few years, which cost him $50K, called Chris Webber a 'schmuck' after Webber dissed Kahn for comparing him to Darko Milicic, and then said Darko was like "Manna from Heaven." And that was just in the last 10 days! While Wolves fans might disagree, I think we need Mr. Kahn, who is known on Twitter as Kahhhhn! And who knows…maybe what he's doing in Minnesota (being smug, strange, collecting point guards, shipping out the team's best player, talking about how proud he is that the team is now serving breakfast and lunch at the facilities) will prove to be the work of a misunderstood genius. We'll see. But until then, we'll always have this.

Can the Knicks get CP3? CP3/Amare/Melo vs. LeBron/Wade/Bosh would be a great rivalry.. Of course assuming Melo goes to NY next year
@Ashley3546

It's a great question, as the Knicks are clearly on his radar. Unfortunately, I feel pretty confident that CP3 was included in the plans of the South Beach 3…he just couldn't get out of his contract, while the other three were all unrestricted FAs. My gut say Paul stays in New Orleans, simply because they won't trade him, and then goes to Miami to join his Wonder Friends. It's too bad the Warriors pimped the Knicks just before their pick in last year's draft, or Stephen Curry would be a nice pairing with Melo and Amare.

And speaking of Melo, we still haven't gotten word of what he's going to do, but I have a hard time believing he's going to just sign an extension in Denver instead of seeing how much TV time he can get (and how many people he can tick off) by being courted by 10 or so teams next summer.

Is Stephen Curry really a first rounder? I know his stats were absolutely filthy but Don Nelson's impulsiveness scares me.
@chong_

Basketballmonster.com has Curry ranked 6th and 7th based on last season's numbers, depending on what categories you look at. He hits a ton of threes, doesn't hurt you anywhere and played for a freewheeling offense last season. Let's not forget those numbers were based on 80 games – not just a hot run. And the scary thing is that he can only get better from here on out. If he was able to offer Top 10 value last season, there's no reason to think he won't do it again this year, or be even better.

As for Nellie, I really don't think he'll be coaching the team this season. New ownership is in place, and you have to think they're going to clean house. This could actually be bad news for Curry and company, since Nellie runs a wide-open offense, but regardless of who is running the show, the team is being built around Curry. I think I would consider taking him anywhere from No. 5 to 12.

Can/will/do u think Jameer Nelson be as good again as he was 2 years ago before he screwed up his shoulder?
@rafstwitID

If CP3 goes to Orlando, no. If he doesn't, Nelson will be a solid No. 2 point guard. But I really think his best years are behind him and he wasn't taken until the seventh round in that mock draft, which is probably about right.

Where do you take Amar'e - my #1 question in this fantasy offseason.
@JamesHova

As you can see by my draft, I got Amare with the second pick of Round 2, which is No. 14 overall. I was thrilled about it and was targeting coming away with either Deron Williams or Stephen Curry, and Amare with my first two picks. I'm still kind of stunned both were available, but Amare is being undervalued. With that Knicks' offense, which made David Lee a Top 10 fantasy player last season, Amare has to be bumped into the first round in almost every league. In fact, at this point, I might be taking him over Wade in future drafts.

Who's someone who will probably be undrafted but can work his way into fantasy relevance? I nominate a MIN SF- Brewer or Webster.
@doneycat

Corey Brewer and Martell Webster are both good calls there. Others who will be underrated are Philly's Thaddeus Young, Indy's Paul George, Atlanta's Jeff Teague (and Mike Bibby), Detroit's Charlie Villanueva, Charlotte's Shaun Livingston, Hakim Warrick in Phoenix, Brad Miller in Houston and Dampier in Charlotte, just to name a few.

Hey doc, which 5 do you like for this year's crop of rooks (outside the top 10) for this season? DoJo? JLin?
@Habjab

Outside of the Top 10 is tough, and should only be looked at in deep keeper leagues, obviously. My seven favorites are Blake Griffin and Tiago Splitter, who were drafted previously, Ed Davis (Raps), Luke Babbitt (Blazers), Eric Bledsoe (Clippers), Dominique Jones (Mavericks) and Jordan Crawford (Hawks).

I'm thinking of Putting S.Curry ahead of Kobe. Am i crazy? Curry can only get better, Kobe can only get worse ?
@RushiRaja

We covered this earlier, but my answer is 'no,' I don't think it's crazy to consider Curry in front of Kobe. Would I do it? Probably not, but I would strongly consider it.

Ah man. Was hoping Ant Rand would be under the radar this year after last year's bust.
@justinkendall

Nope. Randolph landing in New York was an ideal situation and if he can stay healthy, he might have multiple triple-doubles and could lead the league in blocks. As you know, I am a big fan, and his move to NYC only helps his cause.

Andrea B in the 4th? What am I missing?
@RyanKaltenbach

I took Bargnani in the fourth round of the mock draft and he had fourth-round value last year, according to Basketballmonster.com. Take Chris Bosh out of the equation and add in Barg's threes and blocks, and the fourth round looks like the right place to take him in my book. He might even grab some rebounds this year in the absence of Bosh.

 

[HacheMan]

When do I draft Stephen Curry?
I could not sleep on Monday night and I'm placing the blame on Stephen Curry. I literally didn't sleep except for a half hour (4 to 4:30 a.m.) because of what has been happening in the first rounds of early fantasy mock drafts I'm participating in. Every year there's a guy who everyone seems to jump on to have a big year, and this year, that guy is Curry.

But really, looking at the numbers from last year, it should not come as a surprise. The question really, is what didn't Curry do?

Stephen Curry

80 games played
17.5 ppg (pre All-Star: 14.8, post All-Star: 22.1)
2.1 3-pointers per game
4.5 rebounds per game
5.9 assists per game
1.9 steals per game
46.2% shooting
88.5% free throws
3.1 TOs

So he only blocked 0.2 shots per game? Who cares. Everyone raved about the fact Tyreke Evans averaged 20-5-5 for the season, and while that was a major accomplishment, his fantasy numbers simply didn't come all that close to matching Curry's.

Tyreke Evans

72 games played
20.1 ppg
0.5 3-pointers per game
5.3 rebounds per game
5.8 assists per game
1.5 steals per game
45.8% shooting
74.8 free throws
3.0 TOs

Yes, those are solid numbers, but Curry's 3-pointers and steals were fantasy gold, while Tyreke's free throw shooting and lack of threes made a huge difference in how they stacked up in fantasy last year.

Basketballmonster.com ranked Curry as the No. 6 player in fantasy, if you don't count turnovers and look at cumulative totals, meaning the 10 games missed by Evans also hurt him quite a bit. And if you add the TOs in there? Curry still comes in at No. 7 over all, while Evans was a fourth-round value in non-TO leagues, and a sixth-rounder in ones where TOs hurt you. Evans should be better this year, but he's still not first-round talent as far as I'm concerned, until he starts hitting threes and free throws.

So the question now becomes, where do we take Curry in this year's drafts? I've had two of them so far, and have taken him at No. 5 as well as No. 11. So let's break down the players in the first round of fantasy drafts this year, and see how it shakes out.

First of all, I've pretty much decided I do not want to be stuck with the No. 4 pick this year, and the reason is Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk is coming off a fantastic season, finishing as the third-best fantasy player in the universe in most formats, just behind LeBron James and Kevin Durant. But Dirk is sort of like a Bud Light, when you really want a Guinness, Fat Tire or Stella. If cold enough, it'll taste all right and get the job done, but is simply b-o-r-i-n-g. He also averaged less than a steal and 3-pointer per game, but got his value from super-high shooting percentages, 25 ppg and nearly eight rebounds per game. In addition to being able to get those percentages and boards later in the draft, I am looking to have fun with my fantasy leagues. Yes, I want to win, but, I also want to have players I love to watch on TV, and who have a flair for the dramatic. Curry could triple-double at any time, or have 'one of those big games' every time he takes the floor. But with Dirk, we pretty much know what we're going to get every time he laces them up, and I don't need any more Bud Light.

Anyway, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and LeBron James are going to be taken at No. 1, 2 and 3 in almost every draft this year. The order might fluctuate, but they are the fantasy version of the "Big 3." So getting a pick inside the Top 3 is where you'd ideally like to land, as LeBron or CP3 as a consolation prize should work for just about anyone.

But if I don't land one of the first 3 picks, I'm fine with dropping down toward the end of Round 1. I got Curry there once, and Amare Stoudemire is usually going to be there late in Round 1, as well. What I don't want to happen is to be stuck with Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant or Danny Granger with my first pick.

So without further ado, here is a pretend first-round draft order, and my thoughts on who I like, don't like, and why. And what you'll see here is actually my rough draft of the first-round order in our eight-category rankings for the Draft Guide.

1. Kevin Durant – Stud. He's primed for another monster season and should be the No. 1 pick in almost every draft this year. LeBron will go No. 1 in some leagues, but playing with his buddies in Miami is going to have to hurt a little.

2. LeBron James – Still the King and he's still going to put up monster numbers. And he's got something to prove this year, knowing that failure is no longer an option. But he's also going to have to share the ball with a couple very good players, and his numbers will almost certainly have to fall a little.

3. Chris Paul – In a minute or two, I'm going to start bagging on guys for missing games, but for some reason, I'm completely willing to forgive and forget Paul's wasted season last year, when he played in just 53 games. I have no idea why I am doing this, but I am hoping that last year was a fluke. Paul is also going to have some things to prove. Like, that he really isn't another LeBron, and wants to play hard for the Hornets, and that last year's injury mess was a fluke. I'm on board with that, and wouldn't hesitate to take him with the No. 2 or 3 pick.

4. Dirk Nowitzki – As stated above, I would be hesitant to take Dirk here, but this is where we're ranking him in the Draft Guide, and this is where he should go in most leagues. If you're like me and don't want Dirk this year, you better hope you don't have the No. 4 pick. And if you do, whom do you take instead?

5. Stephen Curry – Curry's numbers were ridiculous last year and it sounds like Don Nelson has a decent shot at staying on as the coach in GSW. While that's normally not a good thing to hear, it is for Curry and his stats. Add into that equation that Curry is now the face of the franchise (sorry, Monta Ellis), and that the Warriors completely overhauled their franchise this summer, from the ownership on down. Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Morrow, Corey Maggette, C.J. Watson and Ronny Turiaf are all gone. Those are six guys who played a fairly important role for this team last year. David Lee, Dorell Wright, Jannero Pargo, Jeremy Lin, Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric are in, while Andris Biedrins and Brandan Wright should be back from their injuries this year. But what this tells me is that the Warriors have a whole bunch of grinders, and outside of Lee and Biedrins, none of them are proven NBA starters. But Curry is, and he should only get better from here on out. There is no downside with Curry, and while there is risk associated with taking him this early, it's no greater than the risk associated with Dirk, Kobe, Wade, Granger, or anyone else you'd consider taking instead. Would I reach for Curry at No. 4 if I had to? As of today, I think I would.
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6. Deron Williams – Williams has a decent chance of still being available to you at No. 10, 11 or 12, but the question really becomes, who would you rather own if you're picking sixth in your draft? Williams is still getting better by the day and could even be a better point guard this season than both Curry and Paul. And building fantasy teams around point guards seems to be the way to go these days. So I would strongly consider taking Deron at No. 6 this year, again passing on guys like Kobe, Granger and Wade.

7. Amare Stoudemire – Stoudemire at No. 7 might sound like a big reach, especially when you consider he fell to me at No. 14 in a recent mock draft and was No. 15 at Basketballmonster last season. But the more I think about what he is going to do for Mike D'Antoni and the Knicks this year, the more I like him early. He could easily average 25 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks, a steal, 55% shooting and 82% free throws for a Knicks team lacking scorers. And if he does, those are monster numbers. Again, he is a guy who still has a lot of upside, and while he's been mired in a bit of a funk over the past couple seasons, the sky is the limit this year. His knee is a bit of a concern, but he's played in 82, 79 and 82 games in three of the last four seasons. We all predicted a monster year from Amare a couple years ago, which was a mistake, but it really feels like it's finally going to happen this time. I could be wrong, and there's a decent chance you could wait on Amare and get him in the early part of Round 2, but I'm still not sure I'd rather own Kobe, Granger, Wade or Gasol instead of him. Pairing Amare with the Knicks looks like a fantasy marriage made in Heaven. Or dare I say, 'Manna from Heaven.'

8. Kobe Bryant – I am not hating on Kobe. I am actually a Kobe fan, but his finger and knee make me nervous, he's got as many miles on those legs as anyone not named Kevin Garnett, and the Lakers may be more cautious with him than ever in order to make sure he's close to 100 percent for the playoffs. We've seen his ceiling, and it's probably all down hill from here on out. No more 81-point games, no more "me first" attitude and no more total domination. Kobe is more of a team player than ever, and when you add in the mileage and injuries, he simply looks more risky than those guys I'm taking before him. He played in 73 games last year, but his owners were held hostage for those two missed weeks in February with the fantasy playoffs on the line. Maybe he plays in 80 games this season, but I'm just not feeling it. And having said that, I will gladly take him at No. 8 (and possibly 6 or 7) in this year's drafts. But as of this morning, and after tossing in bed thinking about it for the last eight hours, I am bumping him down below Amare, Deron and Curry. Those guys have upside, and Kobe simply doesn't.

9. Danny Granger – Granger was really tough to own last season, missing 20 games (and 15 the year prior), and standing outside bombing more than seven 3-pointers per game! That killed his field goal percentage (42.8% after being at nearly 45% the previous two seasons), while his scoring and blocks also took a step down. The main problem I have with Granger is his bum knee, which was a problem even back in college. But I'm also not loving the fact that the Pacers, once again, are going to be awful, and will not have anything to play for late in the season, when you're looking to make a fantasy playoff run. I just get a bad karma buzz from Granger this year, and guys who took him over Durant last season know exactly where I'm coming from.

10. Pau Gasol – Gasol missed the first 11 games of the season with a calf injury, but was then spectacular the rest of the way. I like him again this season, and might even be inclined to take him over Granger or Kobe. Gasol flirted with 20-20 games throughout the season and was a beast, but part of that was due to Andrew Bynum not playing at full strength, as well as missing games. If Bynum can somehow stay healthy this season (a huge 'if,' I know), that's going to further hurt Gasol's numbers. He's going to have a big year either way, and is an automatic first-round pick.

11. Dwyane Wade – As we all know, Wade will be running alongside chums LeBron and Chris Bosh, and while he'll still have some monster games and function as the Heat's primary point guard (even though Mario Chalmers will start there), his numbers are still bound to take a hit. You may feel strongly that Miami is still Wade's team, but I don't think it is. LeBron is not there to play Robin to his Batman. Wade is still first-round material, and could be much more valuable than I'm projecting, but he seems to be a guy with very little upside, and a vast injury history. I'm going to do my best to let someone else have him this season.

12. This pick is still completely up for debate in my book. Carmelo Anthony, Rajon Rondo, Josh Smith, Jason Kidd, Brook Lopez, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash are all possibilities, while some folks might look at Andre Iguodala, Carlos Boozer, Gerald Wallace and Monta Ellis with the back-to-back 12 & 13 combo.

Melo & Rondo, Melo & Josh, or Josh & Rondo all look good to me, but if you start off with Rondo and Josh, you're going to have a problem with free throw percentage and 3-pointers. And in many leagues, especially ones that don't read Rotoworld, there's a decent chance that Curry, Deron and Amare might all be available at 12 & 13. And if that's the case, I say it's a win for the owner who has those picks this year.

We've still got time before real drafts start happening this fall, and I might change my tune slightly. But this is what I'm feeling right now, and I really am expecting huge years out of Curry, Stoudemire and Williams, and won't be afraid to take them a little early to make sure I get them. At this stage of my life, I'm pretty tired of Bud Light. And while some folks might consider taking one of those three over proven veteran talent a gamble, it's a pretty small one, if it's even a gamble at all. In fact, it feels more like smart money to me.

 

[HacheMan]

Early Questions, Early Answers
What a wild and crazy summer this has been for this fantasy NBA writing veteran of eight years! The Summer of LeBron (or LeBronapalooza) was a rough one, but the print version of the Rotoworld Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide presented by Beckett Media is at the printer, and should be in stores in mid-September. And that also means the online version is closing in on its completion, and should have a similar target date. Of course, that little four-team trade gem that went down 24 hours before the mag was sent off to the printer caused an extra boatload of work, but it was worth it.

If you don't follow me on Twitter, it's probably time to sign up. I admittedly went a little overboard early on in my Tweeting career, but do a better job of picking my spots these days, and promise to do so again once the season starts and the games count.

In recent news, Lance Stephenson thugged out, Udonis Haslem got busted with a substantial amount of weed, and news broke that Carmelo Anthony will bail out of Denver (be traded) and head to New York, or whoever will team him with his buddies and pay him a bunch of money.

The fact of the matter is that this is still mid-August, and most of us haven't even had a fantasy football draft yet. So instead of getting into complete fantasy hoops details and semantics, I figured I'd do a mailbag type of column and answer questions, most of which come from Twitter.

So let's get started.

Is Raymond Felton a second- or third-round pick in New York? @Onemangang44 on Twitter

Second round? No thanks. But is Felton a very intriguing point guard pick in New York? Absolutely! And he went with the fifth pick of Round 5 in one of my mock drafts this year, and I took him with the ninth pick of the fifth in another. Could he return third-round value this year playing for Mike D'Antoni? Yes, he could. And I love him as a sleeper pick. But just like Darren Collison, who we will get to in a minute, taking Felton in Round 2 or 3 is borderline crazy, at least as of August 17.

10-Team Keeper League, would you trade Dwyane Wade for Deron Williams straight up? @LowlevelNinja

Because it's a keeper league and because LeBron James is currently working in Miami, I would go ahead and do it. Williams really still has nowhere to go but up, while it appears that Wade has nowhere to go but down. Add in Wade's injury history, and the fact he was wheeled off in a shopping cart for a shoulder injury a few years ago, and I think you have your answer. Do it.

Terrence Williams is the big winner after Courtney Lee was traded. What round do you think he should be taken in? @aka_Mr_Fantasy

I am really torn on Mr. T-Will. Dave D'Allesandro says he's going to be traded and was a third-stringer before the trade went down. I kind of agree, but then again, T-Will was a bad man at the end of the year last season, and now is second string at SG and SF, at worst. I think I have him going around No. 115 in the Draft Guide, which translates to Round 9 or 10, but that will likely change after we see what happens in training camp. The fact of the matter is that he's still got to deal with Anthony Morrow and Travis Outlaw, but that's about it. If he stays in New Jersey, he could easily end up starting at either shooting guard or small forward, and I think he's worth a flier. You say Rounds 6 to 8 in another Tweet. I would not reach for him in Round 6 as of this second, as there are just too many good players left on the board at that point in 12-team leagues. But going for him in the eighth round seems to make a lot of sense, as I'd rather own him than Wilson Chandler at this point. That four-team trade that included Lee went down just before our print deadline, and while I got most of the fallout updated, I may not have been as bullish on T-Will as I should have been. Round 6 still seems like it might be a reach, but you would not find an argument from me for taking him in the 7th or 8th round of most 12-team leagues. And he may be in Round 6 as a sleeper by the time October rolls around. If nothing else, Pavement's Stephen Malkmus writes about his love of Williams in the Draft Guide, and he knows his stuff.

Is Trevor Ariza a third-round pick on New Orleans with Chris Paul? @JordanLRice

Ariza shot it terribly last season and no one is going to reach for him in Round 3, at least as of now. But does his value get a boost after the trade? Yes. He seems more suited to a role that doesn't force him to be "the man," and with Paul, David West, Marcus Thornton, Peja Stojakovic and Emeka Okafor on the Hornets, he can play more in the shadows this season, which is a good thing for Ariza. His shooting is still a concern, but I think he will be available in the sixth round of most 12-team leagues. If you really want him, targeting him in Round 5 should be enough to get him. At least, those are my thoughts as of mid-August. He went in Rounds 8 and 9 in my two mocks, so I'm guessing Round 5 or 6 will be enough to land him this year. We'll see if that changes as October rolls around. Shooting be damned, he does enough of everything else to still be an outstanding fantasy player if he has a good year – and I think he will.

Eight Category Keeper League – Keep Rajon Rondo at the cost of a 3rd-round pick, or Danilo Gallinari for a 12th-rounder? @Ckrez

I have Gallinari as the 44th best player in 8-category leagues heading into the season, which means he is my value pick in this case. Point guards offer substantial value, but Gallo could average 16-18 points, two 3-pointers, a steal and a block this year for the Knicks, making him worth a lot more as a 12th-rounder than Rondo for a 3rd-round pick. I'd keep Gallinari over Rondo in this instance.

Who is on your short list of point guards to draft ahead of Darren Collison? @NELaker

This was another late trade that caused me a boatload of late work on the guide. That said, the list of guys I'd draft in front of Collison (whose broken finger shouldn't cost him training camp), as of today, is not that short: Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Russell Westbrook, Aaron Brooks, Mo Williams, Derrick Rose and John Wall all go before Collison in my book as of now. That could change, but he's got to learn a new system, play for Jim O'Brien, who is the opposite of a 'player's coach,' and doesn't have much, outside of Danny Granger, to dish it to. His value got a huge boost when he was traded to Indy, but I'm not ready to call him a Top 10 point guard just yet. But he's close.

And to answer @the_real_max – I'd target Collison in the late 4th or early 5th as of now. Having said that, I also wouldn't be mad at anyone taking him earlier than that, but I still don't think he's an automatic 3rd-round pick.

Would you trade Danilo Gallinari for Andris Biedrins in keeper leagues? I really need boards/blocks, but don't know if Biedrins is ready? @JonasEmiliussen

No. I would keep Gallinari, who should be a fantasy freak this year. And you're right, there are just too many questions about Biedrins and his role with the Warriors at this point. You're probably better off keeping Gallo, letting him get off to a wicked start and then trading him for the big man of your choice. But especially in a keeper league, there's no way I'd trade him for a such a big question mark at this point.

I have Yao Ming at No. 10, Danny Granger at 33, Al Jefferson at 35, Brandon Jennings at 10 and Joe Johnson at 31. I can keep four of them. @benpai

I would drop Yao. The other four players are all looking good, and we still don't really know if Yao is healthy or not. He went (ridiculously) in Round 4 in one mock, but not until Round 7 in the other. Let someone else deal with Yao this year. I think Round 7 is a decent place to take a flier on him, but there are just too many questions about his health, along with a strong possibility that he'll go down again this year with a leg/foot injury.
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Do you trust Danny Granger enough health-wise to take him in the first round? @JordanLRice

The simple answer is 'yes, I do.' I've got him ranked around No. 10 overall, but honestly, I'd rather reach for Stephen Curry or Amare Stoudemire instead of dealing with another year of Granger. His knee and foot are issues, and the Pacers are still terrible.

Is Blake Griffin a future 1st- or 2nd-round pick? @mikeplugh

Yes. But not this year. All indications are that he's healthy, but Round 4 sounds a whole lot better, if not Round 5.

Is Gilbert Arenas worth the risk? I can keep three players and he only costs me $1 out of my $220 to spend. But if he's worthless, it's a waste. @MikeCanDoIt

Yes, he's very much worth a dollar in that format and is going in the fifth or sixth round in most mock drafts. Consider him a steal for a buck, and don't be surprised to see him going in Round 4 in many drafts.

Where can I expect Tyreke Evans to go? I'm a huge Kings fan and don't want to reach for him. @kylebaugher

He's going to likely go in the late 2nd or early 3rd round in 12-team leagues, although someone could reach for him at the end of Round 1. Personally, I like him in the fourth round, because he doesn't hit free throws, threes and is somewhat lacking in steals. But he's also going to get better with every game played. If you have to have him, look for him with your second-round pick. But you are probably better off letting someone else make that move, and taking a more proven player. Round 3 appears to be the spot to take Tyreke, if you really want him.

With all those missed shots in Jersey last year, Brook Lopez only grabbed 8.5 boards. Tell me why he will grab more this year next to Troy Murphy. @mikeplugh

I'm not going to tell you he will. However, he's still one of the top centers in the league, and fantasy, and is going to go in the second round in all drafts. And while the addition of Murphy and Derrick Favors is a concern for his rebounding prowess, he's still going to score, board, block and shoot it at a high level.

Keep three in an eight-man keeper league. Stephen Curry, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard and Darren Collison. Do I throw Bosh back into the draft? @darryldirocco

It's a coin toss between Collison and Bosh, but because Collison now looks like 'the man' in Indy, and Bosh will have to compete with Wade, LeBron and whoever else in Miami, I think I'd keep Curry, Dwight and Collison, and toss Bosh back.

Dynasty, drop one player: Courtney Lee, Lou Williams, Jose Calderon, Josh Childress and Leandro Barbosa. @HAbjab

I say you drop Lee and don't look back. He's now second- or third-string in Houston, and only gets serious run if Kevin Martin goes down. Of course, Kev-Mart will go down, but who knows when and for how long? Lee wasn't great as a starter last year, and those other guys all have too much upside to drop. Lou-Will is a possibility, but I'd still drop Lee over him for now.

If you were forced to have one of Milwaukee's Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden and Jonathan Brockman, who would you take? @mark_strot

I would take Gooden. He's going to start and should be good for some double-doubles, while the other guys will be fighting for minutes and a role. Short and sweet answer.

Suggestions for first pick in a head-to-head keeper league – Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Deron Williams are available, and I already have Al Jefferson. @Joeruiz

LeBron James is still LeBron James, and I'm not even convinced the Heat are still Wade's team. LeBron looks like a no-brainer with the No. 2 or 3 pick in most drafts, so he is the easy answer here. Especially since you don't even have to think about Kevin Durant or Chris Paul.

Andrew Bogut or Kevin Love? @rogerlam13

Pretty tough question, right there. I've currently got Bogut in front of Love in rankings, but there's a realistic chance that Love could challenge Dwight Howard for the rebounding title in Minnesota this year. I watched him battle for board after board in New York recently, but he was going up against other Team USA guys for them. I still think I'd go with Bogut, especially if Love doesn't qualify at center in your league, but it's going to get closer and closer as draft day approaches. But for now, Bogut – final answer. But I am very intrigued by Love this year.

Are you going to switch your No. 1 pick from LeBron James to Kevin Durant? @JordanLRice

Yes, it's done. Not even close.

When you talk about drafting a player in a specific round, what sized league do you have in mind? BuzzerBeater_GR

Most of the writing is geared toward 12-team leagues, which seems to be about average.

Stephen Curry is obviously a stud but doesn't the new ownership situation in GS scare you? If Nellie is booted out, his numbers could potentially take a hit in a new (more structured) system. A. Caveness via email

Yes. As you know, I am completely sold on Curry and will be taking him in the Top 10 in my drafts this year, as high as No. 5 overall. Am I worried about Don Nelson getting booted? A little. But the new owners are not idiots, and they know that Curry is the future of the franchise. And from what I'm hearing, legal matters may keep Nellie there all season. Is Curry risky with a Top 10 pick? Yes, but the kid can play, put up monster numbers last year, has no weaknesses and is fun to own. I will continue to take him in the first round until further notice. And if Nellie stays as coach this year (and I am starting to believe he will) and Curry stays healthy, he should not disappoint.</B>

What team has the best fantasy playoff schedule? @Bmac

For those of you in weekly playoff leagues, here is some food for thought:

4-game Week Leaders:
Pacers and Raptors with 13 each.
Nets, Knicks, Magic and Wizards with 12 each.

Worst Four-game Weeks Schedule:
Bucks only have nine 4-game weeks.

First-half Best Schedules:
Hawks, Lakers, Magic, Spurs with 39 games.

First-half Worst Schedule:
Pacers with 34 games.

Second-half Best Schedules:
Pacers with 40 games.
Bobcats, Kings and Wizards with 38 games.

Worst Second-half Schedule:
Lakers: 34 Games.

Best Playoff Schedules:
Celtics, Nets, Suns, Kings, Wizards all go 4-4-4-4

Worst Playoff Schedules:
Timberwolves, Hornets, Magic