[h=1]Fantasy baseball: Now's the time to worry about these pitchers[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Based on early evidence that the baseball is traveling farther than last season, I recently discussed 16 batters in the best position to benefit. While it's far too soon for a victory lap, the early returns are encouraging.
Using HR/PA (home runs per plate appearance) as the measure, here are the results through April 30:
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 112px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody></aside>
Collectively, the 16 players identified as strong candidates to increase their home runs have indeed done so, at a rate nearly three times that of the league. This begs the question: "What pitchers should be targeted or avoided based on analogous research?"
To briefly review, the hitting parameters are
Unfortunately, 70 hurlers meet the criteria, and that doesn't include six guys not appearing in the majors last season. More filters are necessary.
Again, approaching the conundrum from a draft-worthy perspective, starting pitchers should be expected to be at least league average with respect to strikeout rate. Setting the fly ball rate to 37 percent avails 20 pitchers meeting the following criteria:
Before revealing the score of scary starters, here's the aggregate season-to-data for the 20 pitchers:
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 112px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody></aside>
Admittedly, it's not as encouraging as the hitting results, but there is an increase. What follows are the 20 pitchers to be leery about, listed in order of their 2018 HR/PA, with the highest first.
Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Bundy's inclusion is making the top 100 starters. That speaks toward his latent skills as well as the quality of the back end of the pitching inventory. Needless to say, to date Bundy has surrendered big flies at a rate surpassing last year's bloated mark.
Domingo German, New York Yankees
Conventional analysis points to an ERA correction based on an xFIP and SIERA well over a run higher than German's 2.56 ERA. The reasons are a low .198 BABIP and 6.3 percent home run/fly ball. This suggests selling high. However, it's difficult pulling the trigger in this climate as German is likely the ballast stabilizing other underperforming arms. Further, in keeper leagues, he was probably acquired at a future-friendly price.
However, according to this research and other factors, a huge homer correction is coming. German's fly ball rate is the same as last season's, but he's fanning fewer hitters. Perhaps most damning are the lineups he's faced so far, each one residing in the bottom half with respect to home run rate: Angels (16th), White Sox (17th), Royals (20th), Orioles (25th), Giants (27th) and Tigers (30th).
Everything points to the regression monster sending German's home run rate upward. As an aside, cherry-picking data to prove a point is a dangerous practice. However, if it can be agreed that German's early-season numbers have been kissed by Lady Luck, removing them from the aggregate renders the remaining 19 pitchers' collective home run rate at 19 percent. This increase better supports the working hypothesis.
Mike Fiers, Oakland Athletics
Like with Bundy, hopefully you don't require an explanation with the curious part being Fiers making the top-100 cut.
Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals
Junis is more apropos for deeper formats, though there are indications he could be a sneaky play for shallower formats, despite being listed high. His strikeout and walk rates aren't great, but they're certainly playable. Last season, Junis' home run per fly ball (HR/FB) was a bloated 16.2 percent. This year, it's expectedly higher at 19.2 percent. Even with the juiced ball, he's due some regression.
The most telling difference from last season is a much lower fly ball rate. If Junis can keep up his increased ground ball profile, he becomes an attractive streamer with three subpar offenses on tap in the AL Central. His last outing was a step in the right direction as he held the Rays homerless over six frames, though he fanned only a pair.
Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
With such an emphasis on strikeouts in today's fantasy landscape, many are willing to overlook Darvish's other blemishes since he remains dominant in terms of punchouts. Like Junis, Darvish's ground ball rate has spiked, on paper mitigating the effect of a greater fly ball distance. That said, early on, Darvish's HR/FB has ballooned to 31.8 percent, following a season where it was an excessive 17.5 percent.
He's still missing bats at an elevated clip, but combined with a high walk rate, he's averaging only 4⅔ innings a start, though that's brought down by his 2⅔-inning outing to open the season. Still, he's not pitching deep into games, which tempers the volume of strikeouts. While fewer fly balls is encouraging, there's a plethora of other issues surrounding Darvish, making him a risky buy-low target.
J.A. Happ, New York Yankees
There are all sorts of warning signs for those expecting Happ to turn things around. He's off to a sluggish start, and that's facing a similarly weak array of foes as teammate German. Happ's strikeouts are down, a big contributor to a 4.68 ERA with 4.90 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA, so it's not bad luck. The strikeouts are bound to pick up, but even so, homers relative to the league increase appear to be an issue.
Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hill has pitched only one game this season, so nothing can be gleaned from current stats. However, meeting the requirements to make the list should temper expectations for those hoping Hill is a staff savior.
James Paxton, New York Yankees
Paxton is the third pinstriped hurler to make the list. With matchups with the Astros and Red Sox, his schedule has been a bit tougher, but he's still faced four lesser lights. Paxton started off slow, but he's found a groove, fanning 32 in his last three efforts, spanning 19⅔ stanzas. Considering the state of starting pitching in general, it's hard to part with Paxton, so the best advice is brace for an ERA uptick once the weather warms -- more homers are probably on the way.
Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ray's fly ball rate is on the lower end of the filter and he fans a bunch of batters, so from that perspective, there's less to be worried about, especially if last season's 17.4 percent HR/FB mark is thought to be unlucky. However, Ray's walks pose a significant concern, especially in light of the higher than ever number of runs scored by virtue of the long ball. If Ray being in the sweet spot of fly ball distance indeed leads to more homers, the high free passes add to the run total.
On the other hand, Ray's average fly ball distance has dropped from last season. It's too early to assume it remains this way, but it's at minimum heartening. The lefty is in the same boat he's always in: attractive for whiffs, risky for ratios. The added homers don't change the math significantly.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
Chances are, another reason to be cautious with Teheran isn't needed, but here it is anyway. His strikeout and walk rates are close to last season's, but his HR/FB has increased, as portended by the research. Even if you want to take a chance that there's regression, Teheran's inconsistency and career-long difficulties with lefties better cause peril.
David Price, Boston Red Sox
After rocky initial outings following an abbreviated spring, Price is in a groove, sporting numbers nearly identical to last year's, save for more strikeouts. Thus far, Price has not been victimized by the juiced ball, in large part due to only incurring an extra foot on his average fly ball distance. Even if the fly balls start traveling farther, the veteran southpaw is sporting a career best swinging strike rate, so the added whiffs will offset any effect from the ball.
Caleb Smith, Miami Marlins
Had this been written before the season as a means to alert drafters to potential landmines, it would have come with the disclaimer, "Unless the pitcher increases strikeouts or induces more grounders." Over his first six starts of the 2019 campaign, Smith has accomplished both. His average fly ball distance has inched up, but with cavernous Marlins Park at his back, he doesn't appear to be in danger of a home run onslaught.
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
Curiously, Berrios' average fly ball distance has increased a whopping 16 feet, more than can be accounted for by the alleged reduced drag on the baseball. However, his HR/FB is a tick below last season's mark. With the caveat that the fly ball distance could easily lessen, at this rate Berrios is looking at allowing more homers. In addition, more fly balls have been hit off him so far.
Berrios is another example of a solid arm likely too precious to deal. Just beware, on paper he's due an ERA correction, perhaps steeper than portended by a 3.67 SIERA, likely closer to his 4.07 xFIP.
Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox
Lopez wouldn't have been on the radar for those in mixed leagues, only in play for AL-only. Cutting to the chase, despite an impressive bump in strikeouts, Lopez is a huge risk as he works in a homer-friendly park, has spotty control and, most alarming, is inducing even fewer grounders.
Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies
Eflin's draft stock was on the rise late in the spring. Had we known the ball may be juiced, he would have been one of the hurlers coming with the caveat emptor label. The early returns are a mixed bag. His walk rate is stellar, but Eflin's already middling strikeout rate has dropped. The real oddity is that his average fly ball distance has reduced by 15 feet, supported by an improved soft-contact mark. The jury is still out with respect to how soon exit velocity/hard hit rate become stable, so some reversion is likely, leading to more homers.
Eflin's current ERA is 3.34 as compared to a 4.57 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA. If there's someone in your league lamenting missing out on Eflin's perceived breakout, be a good sport and see what you can get; the breakout is ominous.
Anibal Sanchez, Washington Nationals
Sanchez seemingly reinvented himself last season, introducing a cutter that yielded a lower hard-hit rate. Early on, he's been maintaining those gains but has exhibited horrid control, walking batters at an 11.8 percent clip. On the home run front, Sanchez barely made the average fly ball cutoff, sitting with one of the shortest distances making the list. The sustained soft-contact clip has contributed to a drop in fly ball distance. The concern is much more about walks than homers.
Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins
We're approaching the bottom of the list, meaning these hurlers narrowly landed above the cutoff. Still, they're worth investigating, especially those off to solid starts, like Richards. Richards' first three outings were promising, with the last three rather disappointing, including allowing two homers in each of the last two.
Richards' average fly ball distance is 2 feet shorter than last season, so he may have simply been snake bit the last couple of efforts, at least with regard to homers. That said, only 13 strikeouts with eight walk and three hit batsmen isn't a good combination. Richards likely isn't on the radar of shallower mixed leagues anyway. In deeper formats, he's a hold, especially if you can keep him on reserve and deploy only for home matchups.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
Peralta has started only four times, working 17⅔ stanzas, so his sample is even smaller than others discussed. That said, his average fly ball distance has skyrocketed 29 feet, no doubt responsible for five balls leaving the yard. Peralta has fanned 22, but seven walks are a tad high. There's certainly some talent here, but between the home run risk and the spotty control, Peralta isn't viable in mixed leagues. Pitching in Miller Park for home affairs isn't as enticing since it's such an extreme home run venue.
Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Based on six homers in 43⅓ innings, it may appear Cole's inclusion could be prescient. However, his average fly ball distance has dwindled, suggesting Cole's bloated 17.1 percent HR/FB mark is circumstantial and due for a fall. There's some concern the regression isn't all the way to last season's 10 percent level, but the slight uptick in damage should be minimal.
Dereck Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants
There were several troubling signs surrounding Rodriguez heading into 2019, even without the unknown added worry regarding a juiced ball. In 2018, Rodriguez registered a .257 BABIP and 6.9 percent HR/FB despite an elevated hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate is pedestrian with no signs of an increase. Regression doesn't punch a time clock. This season's early woes are independent of a longer average fly ball distance.
To sum up, there's a plethora of factors influencing a pitcher's outcome. Some are within his control, others happenstance. The combination renders a lot of variance. Even if an individual's fly ball distance increases, it may not manifest in more homers. Still, in terms of probability, it behooves the fantasy baseball enthusiast to keep the possibility in the back of their mind when evaluating the above 20 starting pitchers.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Based on early evidence that the baseball is traveling farther than last season, I recently discussed 16 batters in the best position to benefit. While it's far too soon for a victory lap, the early returns are encouraging.
Using HR/PA (home runs per plate appearance) as the measure, here are the results through April 30:
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 112px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| 2018 | 2019 | INCREASE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| League Average | 3.0 | 3.4 | 13.3% |
| Test Subjects | 4.2 | 5.8 | 38.1% |
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody>
Collectively, the 16 players identified as strong candidates to increase their home runs have indeed done so, at a rate nearly three times that of the league. This begs the question: "What pitchers should be targeted or avoided based on analogous research?"
To briefly review, the hitting parameters are
- Above 40 percent fly ball rate (Fangraphs)
- Below 25 percent strikeout rate
- Average 2017 fly ball distance between 315 and 329 feet
Unfortunately, 70 hurlers meet the criteria, and that doesn't include six guys not appearing in the majors last season. More filters are necessary.
Again, approaching the conundrum from a draft-worthy perspective, starting pitchers should be expected to be at least league average with respect to strikeout rate. Setting the fly ball rate to 37 percent avails 20 pitchers meeting the following criteria:
- Above 37 percent fly ball rate (Fangraphs)
- Above 22.3 percent strikeout rate
- Average 2017 fly ball distance between 315 and 329 feet
- Top-100 pitcher according to 2019 ADP
Before revealing the score of scary starters, here's the aggregate season-to-data for the 20 pitchers:
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 112px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| 2018 | 2019 | INCREASE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| League Average | 3 | 3.4 | 13.30% |
| Test Subjects | 3.4 | 4 | 15.73% |
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody>
Admittedly, it's not as encouraging as the hitting results, but there is an increase. What follows are the 20 pitchers to be leery about, listed in order of their 2018 HR/PA, with the highest first.
Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Bundy's inclusion is making the top 100 starters. That speaks toward his latent skills as well as the quality of the back end of the pitching inventory. Needless to say, to date Bundy has surrendered big flies at a rate surpassing last year's bloated mark.
Domingo German, New York Yankees
Conventional analysis points to an ERA correction based on an xFIP and SIERA well over a run higher than German's 2.56 ERA. The reasons are a low .198 BABIP and 6.3 percent home run/fly ball. This suggests selling high. However, it's difficult pulling the trigger in this climate as German is likely the ballast stabilizing other underperforming arms. Further, in keeper leagues, he was probably acquired at a future-friendly price.
However, according to this research and other factors, a huge homer correction is coming. German's fly ball rate is the same as last season's, but he's fanning fewer hitters. Perhaps most damning are the lineups he's faced so far, each one residing in the bottom half with respect to home run rate: Angels (16th), White Sox (17th), Royals (20th), Orioles (25th), Giants (27th) and Tigers (30th).
Everything points to the regression monster sending German's home run rate upward. As an aside, cherry-picking data to prove a point is a dangerous practice. However, if it can be agreed that German's early-season numbers have been kissed by Lady Luck, removing them from the aggregate renders the remaining 19 pitchers' collective home run rate at 19 percent. This increase better supports the working hypothesis.
Mike Fiers, Oakland Athletics
Like with Bundy, hopefully you don't require an explanation with the curious part being Fiers making the top-100 cut.
Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals
Junis is more apropos for deeper formats, though there are indications he could be a sneaky play for shallower formats, despite being listed high. His strikeout and walk rates aren't great, but they're certainly playable. Last season, Junis' home run per fly ball (HR/FB) was a bloated 16.2 percent. This year, it's expectedly higher at 19.2 percent. Even with the juiced ball, he's due some regression.
The most telling difference from last season is a much lower fly ball rate. If Junis can keep up his increased ground ball profile, he becomes an attractive streamer with three subpar offenses on tap in the AL Central. His last outing was a step in the right direction as he held the Rays homerless over six frames, though he fanned only a pair.
Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
With such an emphasis on strikeouts in today's fantasy landscape, many are willing to overlook Darvish's other blemishes since he remains dominant in terms of punchouts. Like Junis, Darvish's ground ball rate has spiked, on paper mitigating the effect of a greater fly ball distance. That said, early on, Darvish's HR/FB has ballooned to 31.8 percent, following a season where it was an excessive 17.5 percent.
He's still missing bats at an elevated clip, but combined with a high walk rate, he's averaging only 4⅔ innings a start, though that's brought down by his 2⅔-inning outing to open the season. Still, he's not pitching deep into games, which tempers the volume of strikeouts. While fewer fly balls is encouraging, there's a plethora of other issues surrounding Darvish, making him a risky buy-low target.
J.A. Happ, New York Yankees
There are all sorts of warning signs for those expecting Happ to turn things around. He's off to a sluggish start, and that's facing a similarly weak array of foes as teammate German. Happ's strikeouts are down, a big contributor to a 4.68 ERA with 4.90 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA, so it's not bad luck. The strikeouts are bound to pick up, but even so, homers relative to the league increase appear to be an issue.
Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hill has pitched only one game this season, so nothing can be gleaned from current stats. However, meeting the requirements to make the list should temper expectations for those hoping Hill is a staff savior.
James Paxton, New York Yankees
Paxton is the third pinstriped hurler to make the list. With matchups with the Astros and Red Sox, his schedule has been a bit tougher, but he's still faced four lesser lights. Paxton started off slow, but he's found a groove, fanning 32 in his last three efforts, spanning 19⅔ stanzas. Considering the state of starting pitching in general, it's hard to part with Paxton, so the best advice is brace for an ERA uptick once the weather warms -- more homers are probably on the way.
Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ray's fly ball rate is on the lower end of the filter and he fans a bunch of batters, so from that perspective, there's less to be worried about, especially if last season's 17.4 percent HR/FB mark is thought to be unlucky. However, Ray's walks pose a significant concern, especially in light of the higher than ever number of runs scored by virtue of the long ball. If Ray being in the sweet spot of fly ball distance indeed leads to more homers, the high free passes add to the run total.
On the other hand, Ray's average fly ball distance has dropped from last season. It's too early to assume it remains this way, but it's at minimum heartening. The lefty is in the same boat he's always in: attractive for whiffs, risky for ratios. The added homers don't change the math significantly.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
Chances are, another reason to be cautious with Teheran isn't needed, but here it is anyway. His strikeout and walk rates are close to last season's, but his HR/FB has increased, as portended by the research. Even if you want to take a chance that there's regression, Teheran's inconsistency and career-long difficulties with lefties better cause peril.
David Price, Boston Red Sox
After rocky initial outings following an abbreviated spring, Price is in a groove, sporting numbers nearly identical to last year's, save for more strikeouts. Thus far, Price has not been victimized by the juiced ball, in large part due to only incurring an extra foot on his average fly ball distance. Even if the fly balls start traveling farther, the veteran southpaw is sporting a career best swinging strike rate, so the added whiffs will offset any effect from the ball.
Caleb Smith, Miami Marlins
Had this been written before the season as a means to alert drafters to potential landmines, it would have come with the disclaimer, "Unless the pitcher increases strikeouts or induces more grounders." Over his first six starts of the 2019 campaign, Smith has accomplished both. His average fly ball distance has inched up, but with cavernous Marlins Park at his back, he doesn't appear to be in danger of a home run onslaught.
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
Curiously, Berrios' average fly ball distance has increased a whopping 16 feet, more than can be accounted for by the alleged reduced drag on the baseball. However, his HR/FB is a tick below last season's mark. With the caveat that the fly ball distance could easily lessen, at this rate Berrios is looking at allowing more homers. In addition, more fly balls have been hit off him so far.
Berrios is another example of a solid arm likely too precious to deal. Just beware, on paper he's due an ERA correction, perhaps steeper than portended by a 3.67 SIERA, likely closer to his 4.07 xFIP.
Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox
Lopez wouldn't have been on the radar for those in mixed leagues, only in play for AL-only. Cutting to the chase, despite an impressive bump in strikeouts, Lopez is a huge risk as he works in a homer-friendly park, has spotty control and, most alarming, is inducing even fewer grounders.
Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies
Eflin's draft stock was on the rise late in the spring. Had we known the ball may be juiced, he would have been one of the hurlers coming with the caveat emptor label. The early returns are a mixed bag. His walk rate is stellar, but Eflin's already middling strikeout rate has dropped. The real oddity is that his average fly ball distance has reduced by 15 feet, supported by an improved soft-contact mark. The jury is still out with respect to how soon exit velocity/hard hit rate become stable, so some reversion is likely, leading to more homers.
Eflin's current ERA is 3.34 as compared to a 4.57 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA. If there's someone in your league lamenting missing out on Eflin's perceived breakout, be a good sport and see what you can get; the breakout is ominous.
Anibal Sanchez, Washington Nationals
Sanchez seemingly reinvented himself last season, introducing a cutter that yielded a lower hard-hit rate. Early on, he's been maintaining those gains but has exhibited horrid control, walking batters at an 11.8 percent clip. On the home run front, Sanchez barely made the average fly ball cutoff, sitting with one of the shortest distances making the list. The sustained soft-contact clip has contributed to a drop in fly ball distance. The concern is much more about walks than homers.
Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins
We're approaching the bottom of the list, meaning these hurlers narrowly landed above the cutoff. Still, they're worth investigating, especially those off to solid starts, like Richards. Richards' first three outings were promising, with the last three rather disappointing, including allowing two homers in each of the last two.
Richards' average fly ball distance is 2 feet shorter than last season, so he may have simply been snake bit the last couple of efforts, at least with regard to homers. That said, only 13 strikeouts with eight walk and three hit batsmen isn't a good combination. Richards likely isn't on the radar of shallower mixed leagues anyway. In deeper formats, he's a hold, especially if you can keep him on reserve and deploy only for home matchups.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
Peralta has started only four times, working 17⅔ stanzas, so his sample is even smaller than others discussed. That said, his average fly ball distance has skyrocketed 29 feet, no doubt responsible for five balls leaving the yard. Peralta has fanned 22, but seven walks are a tad high. There's certainly some talent here, but between the home run risk and the spotty control, Peralta isn't viable in mixed leagues. Pitching in Miller Park for home affairs isn't as enticing since it's such an extreme home run venue.
Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Based on six homers in 43⅓ innings, it may appear Cole's inclusion could be prescient. However, his average fly ball distance has dwindled, suggesting Cole's bloated 17.1 percent HR/FB mark is circumstantial and due for a fall. There's some concern the regression isn't all the way to last season's 10 percent level, but the slight uptick in damage should be minimal.
Dereck Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants
There were several troubling signs surrounding Rodriguez heading into 2019, even without the unknown added worry regarding a juiced ball. In 2018, Rodriguez registered a .257 BABIP and 6.9 percent HR/FB despite an elevated hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate is pedestrian with no signs of an increase. Regression doesn't punch a time clock. This season's early woes are independent of a longer average fly ball distance.
To sum up, there's a plethora of factors influencing a pitcher's outcome. Some are within his control, others happenstance. The combination renders a lot of variance. Even if an individual's fly ball distance increases, it may not manifest in more homers. Still, in terms of probability, it behooves the fantasy baseball enthusiast to keep the possibility in the back of their mind when evaluating the above 20 starting pitchers.
