[h=1]Fantasy baseball: Is the Seattle offense just an April Fools' joke?[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
A mere eight teams scored fewer runs than the 2018 Seattle Mariners and things figured to only get worse this season after the defections of Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino. One of those fellows hit 37 home runs, another 20 and the other two each hit better than .300. Others replaced them, of course, but let us just say big things were not among the reasonable expectations when it came to the 2019 rebuilding Mariners.
Perhaps we will all have a big laugh about the great start, too. It is, frankly, only six games. The Mariners swept the Oakland Athletics in Tokyo and few noticed. Taking three of four from the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox, with Chris Sale headlining a solid rotation, is different, but if that happens in July, nobody overreacts. The Mariners scored 34 runs this weekend, battering the Boston starters for 28 runs in 15 innings. Three of the first five players on the very early Player Rater are Mariners hitters. No, this is not an April Fools' joke.
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Not surprisingly, outfielder Domingo Santana, shortstop Tim Beckham and first baseman Ryon Healy are also among the most added players in ESPN standard leagues. Should they be? Well, I have recommended Santana all winter after the Mariners acquired him from the Milwaukee Brewers. Santana finished the 2017 season as a top-10 outfielder, hitting .278 with 30 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 88 runs among the highlights, but most of us predicted regression the following season. The Brewers added superman Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, and could not reasonably bench moneyman Ryan Braun, so when Santana did not hit in April, his season was ruined. He needed to move on.
Four Mariners ended up drafted in most leagues: Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion, Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith. The first two provide power, the latter two speed. Santana can provide each and through six games and 26 at-bats, he has hit three home runs and swiped two bases. I would not say he definitively ends up with more than 30 home runs and 15 steals, but I have shares of him all over, so while I admit to being wrong about several predictions -- Yelich might bash 60 homers -- I will not shy away from Santana love. He can do this and should be rostered in all formats. He was originally in all of my leagues.
With Beckham and Healy, along with Jay Bruce, catcher Omar Narvaez and injured Kyle Seager, I am not quite as optimistic. Beckham is hitting .435 with three home runs. A season ago, he hit .230 for the Baltimore Orioles with no plate discipline, modest pop and no speed. Beckham had a productive stretch for the 2017 Orioles, after his acquisition from the Tampa Bay Rays -- they wanted him gone -- when he hit .394 with six home runs in August. Then he hit .180 in September. This is not going to last, and eventually prospect J.P. Crawford will steal his job. Ignore in anything but an AL-only and do the same with Healy. While Beckham's batting average could drop 200 points, Healy is not close to a .300 hitter, either. It is hollow power, and, frankly, not enough for a corner man in a mixed league.
Mariners fans had to know the longest current streak of playoff-less seasons would continue this season, so I am not predicting anything surprising. However, this is not a terrible offense. Haniger is a legit top-20 fantasy outfielder. Encarnacion should extend his streak of 30-homer seasons to eight. Santana could really go 30-15 again. Gordon and Smith have combined for four stolen bases and they could each top the 40 mark. Beckham, Bruce, Healy and eventually Seager should provide hollow power, at least. Narvaez is intriguing for on-base percentage formats. There will be more losses than wins, but in fantasy, more help than originally expected.
[h=2]Sunday recap[/h]
Box scores
Highlights:
• Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, SB
• J.D. Martinez, OF, Boston Red Sox: 2-for-3, HR, 4 RBI, 3 R
• Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Detroit Tigers: 5-for-6, 2 RBI
• Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
• Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox: 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Lowlights:
• Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees: 1-for-5, 4 K
• Christin Stewart, OF, Detroit Tigers: 0-for-4, 3 K
• Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox: 2 2/3 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
• Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians: 4 1/3 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Weekend takeaways:
• In a general sense, nothing that happens the first weekend should get fantasy managers too excited, or too depressed. Yes, my prediction of Milwaukee's Yelich struggling to hit for big power looks ridiculous and I own up to it. His fly ball rate in the second half of last season seemed fluky and unsustainable. I was hardly the only one pessimistic, but after he homered in each of the first four games, either we question how St. Louis Cardinals pitchers approached the defending MVP or believe Yelich can do this all season. Still, he is rostered everywhere as a first-round pick. I ranked him 12th. It is not as if I hated him or his value. Twenty-five home runs? Eh, he might hit that by May.
• As for Red Sox pitchers, do not panic. Yes, lefty Chris Sale certainly was paid and then his fastball velocity dropped, but those worried because the lowly Seattle offense crushed him should look again. Seattle has a decent offense. Sale is fine, unless he is hurt and we do not know it. If this outing occurred in June, nobody asks questions. Do not trade him away, and do not worry yet about Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi. It is one weekend. The bullpen, by the way, might be just fine with Matt Barnes closing. Thirty saves!
• To me, the weekend was more about the young players, starting in San Diego. Fernando Tatis Jr. looks as if he belongs in the majors, as we thought he would. He will hit for power, run a bit, defend a lot. Right-hander Chris Paddack is also not the least bit overwhelmed. Add him in your league if he is somehow available. In general, I rarely advise a fantasy manager to ignore an intriguing young player, hitter or pitcher, early on because the lure of big production could be real. I do not drop my 12th-round draft pick to do it, but it depends on who it is. The most dropped list, so far, is mainly injured players and relievers that do not appear to be in line for saves. Go ahead, add Paddack and his pal Matt Strahm. Get Pete Alonso and Luke Voit and Jorge Soler. It might be real.
Health report:
• Colorado Rockies second baseman Daniel Murphy busted a finger and while this could be a short-term injury, more information is expected Monday. If there is ligament damage, he could miss months. Enticing power option Ryan McMahon figured to share second base with speedy Garrett Hampson. Now each should play regularly, though watch Mark Reynolds steal the plate appearances at first base versus lefties. That is fine. If Murphy is out months, like the next fellow listed, try to keep him rostered.
• I always feared that Los Angeles Angels outfielder Justin Upton would miss more than a week with his toe injury. Now it is at least two months. Upton always hits, so dumping him to free agency could cost you, but in June. The Angels, unlike the Rockies, have no reasonable outfield replacements.
• New York Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton could miss only the minimum 10 days with a biceps strain, so do not get any ideas about cutting him. Buy low if possible. The Yankees called up Clint Frazier and he might play quite a bit, but it is tough to call him a must-add in mixed formats. One could debate the middle of the New York lineup is a problem but Luke Voit looks like a 25-homer guy that hits for average, so perhaps not. All will be well.
Closing time:
• Brewers closer Corey Knebel will miss the season with Tommy John surgery but right-hander Jeremy Jeffress and his ailing shoulder could be all right in a week. Whether Jeffress or another right-hander sees saves opportunities is another story. Lefty Josh Hader is amazing, a strikeout machine. Nobody denies this. However, manager Craig Counsell could easily shift him to earlier in games, and still could do it. That does not mean we should sell high on Hader; however, I still take the under on 25 saves. Jeffress should get them, or if he is hurting then Jacob Barnes. Craig Kimbrel can end up here. This is fluid.
• The Mariners lost right-hander Hunter Strickland for several months with a lat strain. Go ahead and guess who gets the next save chance. I thought it would be Cory Gearrin on Sunday, and it was. Then he proceeded to walk everyone. Nick Rumbelow saved a weekend game and on Sunday entered in the fifth inning. Chasen Bradford? Could be. Watch for Anthony Swarzak when he comes off the injured list soon.
W2W4:
• The last of the four ESPN games on Monday features Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Julio Urias against the meager San Francisco Giants lineup. Lefty Drew Pomeranz starts, but he does not come recommended against LA. The Dodgers could handle Urias carefully this season, restricting innings, placing on the IL sans worrying, but worry about that later. He is a strikeout option with a high-90s MPH fastball, and he had no trouble locating it in spring games. The shoulder is fixed. Get him now before the outing, even if you do not use him later in the week at Coors Field.
• San Diego Padres lefty Matt Strahm starts versus the beleaguered Arizona Diamondbacks. Strahm looked great in the spring and should pile on the strikeouts. Again, add him now before it is too late. Watch the lineups for these teams, too. Arizona should be playing Christian Walker against all lefties and some right-handers. The power is legit. San Diego's outfield situation still lacks clarity, though fantasy managers are cutting Hunter Renfroe. It is a bit early to do anything.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
A mere eight teams scored fewer runs than the 2018 Seattle Mariners and things figured to only get worse this season after the defections of Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino. One of those fellows hit 37 home runs, another 20 and the other two each hit better than .300. Others replaced them, of course, but let us just say big things were not among the reasonable expectations when it came to the 2019 rebuilding Mariners.
Perhaps we will all have a big laugh about the great start, too. It is, frankly, only six games. The Mariners swept the Oakland Athletics in Tokyo and few noticed. Taking three of four from the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox, with Chris Sale headlining a solid rotation, is different, but if that happens in July, nobody overreacts. The Mariners scored 34 runs this weekend, battering the Boston starters for 28 runs in 15 innings. Three of the first five players on the very early Player Rater are Mariners hitters. No, this is not an April Fools' joke.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Not surprisingly, outfielder Domingo Santana, shortstop Tim Beckham and first baseman Ryon Healy are also among the most added players in ESPN standard leagues. Should they be? Well, I have recommended Santana all winter after the Mariners acquired him from the Milwaukee Brewers. Santana finished the 2017 season as a top-10 outfielder, hitting .278 with 30 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 88 runs among the highlights, but most of us predicted regression the following season. The Brewers added superman Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, and could not reasonably bench moneyman Ryan Braun, so when Santana did not hit in April, his season was ruined. He needed to move on.
Four Mariners ended up drafted in most leagues: Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion, Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith. The first two provide power, the latter two speed. Santana can provide each and through six games and 26 at-bats, he has hit three home runs and swiped two bases. I would not say he definitively ends up with more than 30 home runs and 15 steals, but I have shares of him all over, so while I admit to being wrong about several predictions -- Yelich might bash 60 homers -- I will not shy away from Santana love. He can do this and should be rostered in all formats. He was originally in all of my leagues.
With Beckham and Healy, along with Jay Bruce, catcher Omar Narvaez and injured Kyle Seager, I am not quite as optimistic. Beckham is hitting .435 with three home runs. A season ago, he hit .230 for the Baltimore Orioles with no plate discipline, modest pop and no speed. Beckham had a productive stretch for the 2017 Orioles, after his acquisition from the Tampa Bay Rays -- they wanted him gone -- when he hit .394 with six home runs in August. Then he hit .180 in September. This is not going to last, and eventually prospect J.P. Crawford will steal his job. Ignore in anything but an AL-only and do the same with Healy. While Beckham's batting average could drop 200 points, Healy is not close to a .300 hitter, either. It is hollow power, and, frankly, not enough for a corner man in a mixed league.
Mariners fans had to know the longest current streak of playoff-less seasons would continue this season, so I am not predicting anything surprising. However, this is not a terrible offense. Haniger is a legit top-20 fantasy outfielder. Encarnacion should extend his streak of 30-homer seasons to eight. Santana could really go 30-15 again. Gordon and Smith have combined for four stolen bases and they could each top the 40 mark. Beckham, Bruce, Healy and eventually Seager should provide hollow power, at least. Narvaez is intriguing for on-base percentage formats. There will be more losses than wins, but in fantasy, more help than originally expected.
[h=2]Sunday recap[/h]
Box scores
Highlights:
• Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, SB
• J.D. Martinez, OF, Boston Red Sox: 2-for-3, HR, 4 RBI, 3 R
• Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Detroit Tigers: 5-for-6, 2 RBI
• Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
• Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox: 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Lowlights:
• Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees: 1-for-5, 4 K
• Christin Stewart, OF, Detroit Tigers: 0-for-4, 3 K
• Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox: 2 2/3 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
• Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians: 4 1/3 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Weekend takeaways:
Bryce Harper has 43 HR in March/April since making his debut in 2012, breaking a tie with Nelson Cruz and Ryan Braun for the most in MLB over that span. pic.twitter.com/IUztIHZAg8
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 1, 2019
• The most noteworthy player on the last unbeaten team homered both Saturday and Sunday, but then again, Bryce Harper generally starts his seasons quickly. Can he sustain things? Can he remain healthy? Harper fits in nicely in a rebuilt Philadelphia Phillies lineup that had little trouble hitting for power, taking walks and scoring runs against what was, in fairness, hardly the best pitchers the Atlanta Braves boast in their organization. Still, Harper's power has never been in question. I doubt, however, that he will steal bases. In fact, after manager Gabe Kapler growled at Cesar Hernandez for stealing a weekend base and thus leading the Braves to intentionally walk Maikel Franco to get to the pitcher, one wonders if any Phillies will be running. They will be hitting, though. Add Franco; the big league mark for home runs by a No. 8 hitter is only 22. Franco should surpass that figure.- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 1, 2019
• In a general sense, nothing that happens the first weekend should get fantasy managers too excited, or too depressed. Yes, my prediction of Milwaukee's Yelich struggling to hit for big power looks ridiculous and I own up to it. His fly ball rate in the second half of last season seemed fluky and unsustainable. I was hardly the only one pessimistic, but after he homered in each of the first four games, either we question how St. Louis Cardinals pitchers approached the defending MVP or believe Yelich can do this all season. Still, he is rostered everywhere as a first-round pick. I ranked him 12th. It is not as if I hated him or his value. Twenty-five home runs? Eh, he might hit that by May.
• As for Red Sox pitchers, do not panic. Yes, lefty Chris Sale certainly was paid and then his fastball velocity dropped, but those worried because the lowly Seattle offense crushed him should look again. Seattle has a decent offense. Sale is fine, unless he is hurt and we do not know it. If this outing occurred in June, nobody asks questions. Do not trade him away, and do not worry yet about Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi. It is one weekend. The bullpen, by the way, might be just fine with Matt Barnes closing. Thirty saves!
• To me, the weekend was more about the young players, starting in San Diego. Fernando Tatis Jr. looks as if he belongs in the majors, as we thought he would. He will hit for power, run a bit, defend a lot. Right-hander Chris Paddack is also not the least bit overwhelmed. Add him in your league if he is somehow available. In general, I rarely advise a fantasy manager to ignore an intriguing young player, hitter or pitcher, early on because the lure of big production could be real. I do not drop my 12th-round draft pick to do it, but it depends on who it is. The most dropped list, so far, is mainly injured players and relievers that do not appear to be in line for saves. Go ahead, add Paddack and his pal Matt Strahm. Get Pete Alonso and Luke Voit and Jorge Soler. It might be real.
Health report:
• Colorado Rockies second baseman Daniel Murphy busted a finger and while this could be a short-term injury, more information is expected Monday. If there is ligament damage, he could miss months. Enticing power option Ryan McMahon figured to share second base with speedy Garrett Hampson. Now each should play regularly, though watch Mark Reynolds steal the plate appearances at first base versus lefties. That is fine. If Murphy is out months, like the next fellow listed, try to keep him rostered.
• I always feared that Los Angeles Angels outfielder Justin Upton would miss more than a week with his toe injury. Now it is at least two months. Upton always hits, so dumping him to free agency could cost you, but in June. The Angels, unlike the Rockies, have no reasonable outfield replacements.
• New York Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton could miss only the minimum 10 days with a biceps strain, so do not get any ideas about cutting him. Buy low if possible. The Yankees called up Clint Frazier and he might play quite a bit, but it is tough to call him a must-add in mixed formats. One could debate the middle of the New York lineup is a problem but Luke Voit looks like a 25-homer guy that hits for average, so perhaps not. All will be well.
Closing time:
• Brewers closer Corey Knebel will miss the season with Tommy John surgery but right-hander Jeremy Jeffress and his ailing shoulder could be all right in a week. Whether Jeffress or another right-hander sees saves opportunities is another story. Lefty Josh Hader is amazing, a strikeout machine. Nobody denies this. However, manager Craig Counsell could easily shift him to earlier in games, and still could do it. That does not mean we should sell high on Hader; however, I still take the under on 25 saves. Jeffress should get them, or if he is hurting then Jacob Barnes. Craig Kimbrel can end up here. This is fluid.
• The Mariners lost right-hander Hunter Strickland for several months with a lat strain. Go ahead and guess who gets the next save chance. I thought it would be Cory Gearrin on Sunday, and it was. Then he proceeded to walk everyone. Nick Rumbelow saved a weekend game and on Sunday entered in the fifth inning. Chasen Bradford? Could be. Watch for Anthony Swarzak when he comes off the injured list soon.
W2W4:
• The last of the four ESPN games on Monday features Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Julio Urias against the meager San Francisco Giants lineup. Lefty Drew Pomeranz starts, but he does not come recommended against LA. The Dodgers could handle Urias carefully this season, restricting innings, placing on the IL sans worrying, but worry about that later. He is a strikeout option with a high-90s MPH fastball, and he had no trouble locating it in spring games. The shoulder is fixed. Get him now before the outing, even if you do not use him later in the week at Coors Field.
• San Diego Padres lefty Matt Strahm starts versus the beleaguered Arizona Diamondbacks. Strahm looked great in the spring and should pile on the strikeouts. Again, add him now before it is too late. Watch the lineups for these teams, too. Arizona should be playing Christian Walker against all lefties and some right-handers. The power is legit. San Diego's outfield situation still lacks clarity, though fantasy managers are cutting Hunter Renfroe. It is a bit early to do anything.
