[h=1]Fantasy baseball: Do not draft these players[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Josh Hader put together a solid fantasy baseball résumé in 2018. The Milwaukee Brewers left-hander comes off a fantastic season in which -- as a multi-inning relief weapon for the eventual National League Central champions -- he struck out 143 of the 306 batters he faced in 81⅓ innings, or more whiffs than all but 67 starting pitchers. Hader also won six games and saved 12, and with his 2.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, he ended up placing better on the final ESPN Fantasy Player Rater than all but five relief pitchers. Why would I not want him on my team in 2019?
Well, there are several reasons, and the prime one is, as usual, that the price of rostering him has caught up to the value. History tells us it is rare for any relief pitcher to dominate for consecutive seasons, let alone for the long term, even when they throw as hard and nasty as Hader, who permitted a .132 batting average against and a mere eight base hits to lefty hitters in 102 plate appearances. I cannot see Hader doing this again, at least quite to this level. The other issue is that despite how awesome the strikeouts and innings are, we need saves. All of us. Hader earned 12, but with a healthy Corey Knebel and perhaps Jeremy Jeffress looming, I predict Hader's save total goes the same way Andrew Miller's did in recent seasons.
Miller closed for the 2015 New York Yankees, and it was an incredible season. The following year, with lefty Aroldis Chapman on the club and an ascendant Dellin Betances needing more opportunities, Miller appeared earlier in games, and then he was traded to the Cleveland Indians. There was nothing special about right-hander Cody Allen, but he got the saves, and in 2017, when everyone drafted Miller ahead of Allen, the former saved two games, the latter 30. Bryan Shaw saved more Indians games than Miller did that season. Of course, Miller was awesome and his Player Rater ranking proved it, but I not only desire good innings from relievers, I want saves. I do not see many saves in Hader's immediate future.
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I find it peculiar that Hader is so popular that his spot seems firm in the 12th round in ESPN average live drafts, 10th among relief pitchers. For one, I'm not sure I'll draft even actual closers who do figure to accrue saves before that. New York Mets right-hander Edwin Diaz in Round 5, ahead of Eugenio Suarez, Lorenzo Cain, Gleyber Torres and Nicholas Castellanos, among many others? Hard pass from me. This is still a relief pitcher, and saves are available much later and rather easily from free agency during the season, when a third of closing roles are likely to alter. Kenley Jansen a mere five picks after Diaz? In a points league, sure. In a roto league, which is my main area of concentration in writing and participating, no way.
Hader might defy odds and generate another awesome statistical season, and perhaps find his way into double-digit saves should the team's right-handers struggle with performance or health, but the Player Rater tells us only so much. One can select a squad of Rater favorites and still fail to contend in a roto league. We need categories. There is context. I cannot tell you with certainty that Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Archie Bradley delivers a great season, but he seems more likely today to provide myriad saves, and at a bargain price.
[h=3]Players to avoid at their current ADP[/h]Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: We shall get this one out of the way early. Posey has won World Series titles and someday the Hall of Fame will come calling. As a fantasy option, he is annually overrated, earning top-50 status in average draft position and mostly delivering excellent numbers that simply were not worth that value when compared to others. This is a value game. Catching is the most rigorous defensive position in baseball. Catchers get hurt, and most play through maladies that affect their hitting. It happens.
To be fair, Posey is, for the first time in six seasons, not a top-100 ADP pick, but he remains too popular in drafts (Round 14) as he comes off major hip surgery. The plate discipline remains, so perhaps Posey can hit near .300 in maybe 400 plate appearances, but the power is gone. Posey hit fewer than 15 home runs in each of the past three seasons. I do not recommend any catcher too early; Philadelphia Phillies newcomer J.T. Realmuto cracks my top 100, the lone catcher to do so, but Round 6 is early. Gary Sanchez and his .186 batting average a round later is foolish, and powerless Willson Contreras in Round 10 is as well. Wait on catcher. Until the end. Having the best one is hardly the edge most think it is.
Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets: Well, he made 32 starts ... stop, I am told that is 32 starts over the past two seasons combined. Look, we know he is awesome when he hurls. I just have a problem drafting a pitcher in Round 4 who, history tells us, does not pitch enough. It's not personal. There is upside here for top-five numbers, but I prefer to be risk-averse in early rounds, and you'll need to use an early-round selection to secure him.
Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros: I admit this is a tougher case to make against Correa since his ADP has him in Round 5, which is fair. I think people want to draft Correa this high because of his status as a first-round choice a few seasons ago -- foolishly, based on 99 games as a rookie -- and they think middle infield is bereft of talent. Oh, it is strong. Correa failed to reach 500 plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, and he stole five bases in those 219 games, limiting his fantasy upside. He has also hit at least .280 in only one of his four seasons. Statistically, Correa really is not what you think he is.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: You cannot help the club from the tub. That is the saying, right? Kershaw averaged just 25 starts the past three seasons because of chronic back problems, and now his left shoulder is not right. The numbers are still great, but that strikeout percentage has dropped for sure. Look, Kershaw could end up a top-10 starting pitcher on our Rater with only 25 starts. He does it annually. But we know he is starting the season on the injured list (it's no longer the disabled list, by the way) and age and underlying peripherals tell a story. You know the saying about getting out a year early rather than late? OK, that one works.
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Similar to Correa, I suppose, in that there are not only durability concerns but also the numbers and narrative themselves. Seager could be great, assuming all is well after not only Tommy John surgery but also a hip procedure. What numbers do you think he provided in the first place? He averaged 24 home runs and 75 RBIs his first two full seasons, and he did not steal bases. Even in the eighth round, there is more risk here than most want to acknowledge. A few rounds later and I'm all-in, as with most of the names already mentioned, except the catchers. Welington Castilloor Francisco Mejia in the final round, please.
Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Atlanta Braves: He is already hurt. Perhaps it's two weeks, a few starts. Perhaps it's myriad starts. Any elbow injury in March needs to be taken seriously in the real and fantasy worlds. I thought his numbers would regress a bit to start with.
Joey Gallo, 1B/OF, Texas Rangers: Love the power, hate the batting average. There is ample power available, even in later rounds. Why hamstring your team with a .206 batting average? It was .209 the year before. I think we know his baseline at this point. It hardly means you cannot compete in the batting average category, but it is a huge hurdle to get over.
Yu Darvish, SP, Chicago Cubs: A repeat selection on this list, Darvish is an elite strikeout option when healthy, but that last point is the problem. Well, it's one of them. Darvish can help in WHIP, but not likely in ERA and wins. Remember, the massive innings on that valuable right arm began far before he joined the Rangers in 2012. I'll let others gamble on this "upside."
Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers: Mazara is young enough to blossom into the 30-homer option that so many expected, but after three mostly full seasons, we have received precisely 20 home runs in each of them, with a batting average below .267 and fewer than 65 runs each and every time. He does not steal bases. I fail to see evidence that Mazara, even as he approaches age 24, will suddenly aid fantasy managers and live up to his Round 15 ADP. These ordinary numbers are available in free agency in April.
Billy Hamilton, OF, Kansas City Royals: So many people scoffed when I said years ago this fellow simply could not hit well enough to hold a full-time job. Oh, he can run. He can defend in center. He's a one-category fantasy option and the value in Round 16 is fine, certainly better than Dee Gordon six rounds earlier, but I cannot make a great case to use an active roster spot on a one-category hitter, even in a market starving for stolen bases. Take a three-category hitter in Round 16.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/UT, Los Angeles Angels: What an amazing MLB debut! However, Year 2 is not going to be as impressive. Ohtani will not pitch this season after needing Tommy John surgery. The Angels think he can hit by May, and Ohtani certainly proved himself against right-handed pitching, but expecting regular duty in that arrangement is dangerous. The Angels want this hitter/pitcher available in 2020 and beyond. I just think those expecting more than 400 plate appearances, and the numbers that go with them, could be disappointed, because there is no evidence the Angels want to sit Albert Pujols, despite the fact that his ridiculous contract is, at this point, a sunk cost. I am not against "clogging" my utility spot, as some put it, and generally reach for Nelson Cruz whenever possible, but even in Round 18, stashing Ohtani for at least a month and being patient enough to wait seems like a losing proposition.
The unchosen: Best I can tell, the lone free agents in the top 200 of ESPN ADP are reliever Craig Kimbrel and lefty starter Dallas Keuchel. It is already the ides of March. Perhaps they sign today or tomorrow and assume roles and home ballparks of perfection. The fact is, Kimbrel's stats are trending in the wrong direction after a decade of excellence, and Keuchel, since his Cy Young Award season, has posted an ERA on the wrong side of 3.70 twice, with a high WHIP and below-average strikeout rate. If they sign today, they do not pitch in early April. By the way, there is a chance neither finds employment at all. We scoffed when then-Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell threatened it, and -- voilà -- he never did play this past season.
[h=3]Pitchers to avoid in late rounds[/h]
In a general sense, I never recommend avoiding a player after Round 20 or so because the value is fine at that point. If the player struggles in April, just move on. The commitment level is low. However, and this is mainly for starting pitchers, late-round players can still hurt a fantasy team. I avoid the following pitchers, for various reasons:
Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies: People simply never want to stop believing, even when the ERA and WHIP get worse. We love strikeouts, but not with the added mess. This is not solely about playing at Coors Field, either, since his road numbers were more ghastly.
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals: Sure sounds like that valuable right arm is a mess at this point. Give up on him returning to top-20 status anytime soon, and I doubt he closes when the team forces him to the bullpen.
Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals: I invested a season ago and the reward was four innings. Health is a skill he appears to lack, and the Cardinals will be cautious with his workload. Add in a dynasty format, but again, if he cannot stay healthy, it's a problem.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: The concern is not home/road splits. They are not a thing in this instance. What is a thing is the dropping fastball velocity and ability to control left-handed hitters.
Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds: Tell yourself his problem was pitching at Yankee Stadium and then realize the Cincinnati ballpark is a launching pad.
Trevor Williams, Pittsburgh Pirates: The luckiest second-half pitcher in recent years induced soft contact with average stuff and a low K rate. Do not draft last year's numbers.
Dereck Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants: Similar to Williams, the son of Hall of Famer Pudge was hardly a top prospect, and an average K rate portends trouble.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: I feel like I should not need to even type his name here, but the geniuses on TV keep talking about how he'll bounce back. Sure he will. Please. How can you not know what is happening with Felix by now?
Matt Harvey, Los Angeles Angels: His Cincinnati numbers really were not so great. Now he has to face designated hitters on a regular basis. Stop living in the past. It seems fitting that Hernandez, Harvey, Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright and free agent Bartolo Colon boast roughly the same ADP. It's a sign!
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Josh Hader put together a solid fantasy baseball résumé in 2018. The Milwaukee Brewers left-hander comes off a fantastic season in which -- as a multi-inning relief weapon for the eventual National League Central champions -- he struck out 143 of the 306 batters he faced in 81⅓ innings, or more whiffs than all but 67 starting pitchers. Hader also won six games and saved 12, and with his 2.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, he ended up placing better on the final ESPN Fantasy Player Rater than all but five relief pitchers. Why would I not want him on my team in 2019?
Well, there are several reasons, and the prime one is, as usual, that the price of rostering him has caught up to the value. History tells us it is rare for any relief pitcher to dominate for consecutive seasons, let alone for the long term, even when they throw as hard and nasty as Hader, who permitted a .132 batting average against and a mere eight base hits to lefty hitters in 102 plate appearances. I cannot see Hader doing this again, at least quite to this level. The other issue is that despite how awesome the strikeouts and innings are, we need saves. All of us. Hader earned 12, but with a healthy Corey Knebel and perhaps Jeremy Jeffress looming, I predict Hader's save total goes the same way Andrew Miller's did in recent seasons.
Miller closed for the 2015 New York Yankees, and it was an incredible season. The following year, with lefty Aroldis Chapman on the club and an ascendant Dellin Betances needing more opportunities, Miller appeared earlier in games, and then he was traded to the Cleveland Indians. There was nothing special about right-hander Cody Allen, but he got the saves, and in 2017, when everyone drafted Miller ahead of Allen, the former saved two games, the latter 30. Bryan Shaw saved more Indians games than Miller did that season. Of course, Miller was awesome and his Player Rater ranking proved it, but I not only desire good innings from relievers, I want saves. I do not see many saves in Hader's immediate future.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
I find it peculiar that Hader is so popular that his spot seems firm in the 12th round in ESPN average live drafts, 10th among relief pitchers. For one, I'm not sure I'll draft even actual closers who do figure to accrue saves before that. New York Mets right-hander Edwin Diaz in Round 5, ahead of Eugenio Suarez, Lorenzo Cain, Gleyber Torres and Nicholas Castellanos, among many others? Hard pass from me. This is still a relief pitcher, and saves are available much later and rather easily from free agency during the season, when a third of closing roles are likely to alter. Kenley Jansen a mere five picks after Diaz? In a points league, sure. In a roto league, which is my main area of concentration in writing and participating, no way.
Hader might defy odds and generate another awesome statistical season, and perhaps find his way into double-digit saves should the team's right-handers struggle with performance or health, but the Player Rater tells us only so much. One can select a squad of Rater favorites and still fail to contend in a roto league. We need categories. There is context. I cannot tell you with certainty that Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Archie Bradley delivers a great season, but he seems more likely today to provide myriad saves, and at a bargain price.
[h=3]Players to avoid at their current ADP[/h]Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: We shall get this one out of the way early. Posey has won World Series titles and someday the Hall of Fame will come calling. As a fantasy option, he is annually overrated, earning top-50 status in average draft position and mostly delivering excellent numbers that simply were not worth that value when compared to others. This is a value game. Catching is the most rigorous defensive position in baseball. Catchers get hurt, and most play through maladies that affect their hitting. It happens.
To be fair, Posey is, for the first time in six seasons, not a top-100 ADP pick, but he remains too popular in drafts (Round 14) as he comes off major hip surgery. The plate discipline remains, so perhaps Posey can hit near .300 in maybe 400 plate appearances, but the power is gone. Posey hit fewer than 15 home runs in each of the past three seasons. I do not recommend any catcher too early; Philadelphia Phillies newcomer J.T. Realmuto cracks my top 100, the lone catcher to do so, but Round 6 is early. Gary Sanchez and his .186 batting average a round later is foolish, and powerless Willson Contreras in Round 10 is as well. Wait on catcher. Until the end. Having the best one is hardly the edge most think it is.
Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets: Well, he made 32 starts ... stop, I am told that is 32 starts over the past two seasons combined. Look, we know he is awesome when he hurls. I just have a problem drafting a pitcher in Round 4 who, history tells us, does not pitch enough. It's not personal. There is upside here for top-five numbers, but I prefer to be risk-averse in early rounds, and you'll need to use an early-round selection to secure him.
Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros: I admit this is a tougher case to make against Correa since his ADP has him in Round 5, which is fair. I think people want to draft Correa this high because of his status as a first-round choice a few seasons ago -- foolishly, based on 99 games as a rookie -- and they think middle infield is bereft of talent. Oh, it is strong. Correa failed to reach 500 plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, and he stole five bases in those 219 games, limiting his fantasy upside. He has also hit at least .280 in only one of his four seasons. Statistically, Correa really is not what you think he is.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: You cannot help the club from the tub. That is the saying, right? Kershaw averaged just 25 starts the past three seasons because of chronic back problems, and now his left shoulder is not right. The numbers are still great, but that strikeout percentage has dropped for sure. Look, Kershaw could end up a top-10 starting pitcher on our Rater with only 25 starts. He does it annually. But we know he is starting the season on the injured list (it's no longer the disabled list, by the way) and age and underlying peripherals tell a story. You know the saying about getting out a year early rather than late? OK, that one works.
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Similar to Correa, I suppose, in that there are not only durability concerns but also the numbers and narrative themselves. Seager could be great, assuming all is well after not only Tommy John surgery but also a hip procedure. What numbers do you think he provided in the first place? He averaged 24 home runs and 75 RBIs his first two full seasons, and he did not steal bases. Even in the eighth round, there is more risk here than most want to acknowledge. A few rounds later and I'm all-in, as with most of the names already mentioned, except the catchers. Welington Castilloor Francisco Mejia in the final round, please.
Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Atlanta Braves: He is already hurt. Perhaps it's two weeks, a few starts. Perhaps it's myriad starts. Any elbow injury in March needs to be taken seriously in the real and fantasy worlds. I thought his numbers would regress a bit to start with.
Joey Gallo, 1B/OF, Texas Rangers: Love the power, hate the batting average. There is ample power available, even in later rounds. Why hamstring your team with a .206 batting average? It was .209 the year before. I think we know his baseline at this point. It hardly means you cannot compete in the batting average category, but it is a huge hurdle to get over.
Yu Darvish, SP, Chicago Cubs: A repeat selection on this list, Darvish is an elite strikeout option when healthy, but that last point is the problem. Well, it's one of them. Darvish can help in WHIP, but not likely in ERA and wins. Remember, the massive innings on that valuable right arm began far before he joined the Rangers in 2012. I'll let others gamble on this "upside."
Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers: Mazara is young enough to blossom into the 30-homer option that so many expected, but after three mostly full seasons, we have received precisely 20 home runs in each of them, with a batting average below .267 and fewer than 65 runs each and every time. He does not steal bases. I fail to see evidence that Mazara, even as he approaches age 24, will suddenly aid fantasy managers and live up to his Round 15 ADP. These ordinary numbers are available in free agency in April.
Billy Hamilton, OF, Kansas City Royals: So many people scoffed when I said years ago this fellow simply could not hit well enough to hold a full-time job. Oh, he can run. He can defend in center. He's a one-category fantasy option and the value in Round 16 is fine, certainly better than Dee Gordon six rounds earlier, but I cannot make a great case to use an active roster spot on a one-category hitter, even in a market starving for stolen bases. Take a three-category hitter in Round 16.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/UT, Los Angeles Angels: What an amazing MLB debut! However, Year 2 is not going to be as impressive. Ohtani will not pitch this season after needing Tommy John surgery. The Angels think he can hit by May, and Ohtani certainly proved himself against right-handed pitching, but expecting regular duty in that arrangement is dangerous. The Angels want this hitter/pitcher available in 2020 and beyond. I just think those expecting more than 400 plate appearances, and the numbers that go with them, could be disappointed, because there is no evidence the Angels want to sit Albert Pujols, despite the fact that his ridiculous contract is, at this point, a sunk cost. I am not against "clogging" my utility spot, as some put it, and generally reach for Nelson Cruz whenever possible, but even in Round 18, stashing Ohtani for at least a month and being patient enough to wait seems like a losing proposition.
The unchosen: Best I can tell, the lone free agents in the top 200 of ESPN ADP are reliever Craig Kimbrel and lefty starter Dallas Keuchel. It is already the ides of March. Perhaps they sign today or tomorrow and assume roles and home ballparks of perfection. The fact is, Kimbrel's stats are trending in the wrong direction after a decade of excellence, and Keuchel, since his Cy Young Award season, has posted an ERA on the wrong side of 3.70 twice, with a high WHIP and below-average strikeout rate. If they sign today, they do not pitch in early April. By the way, there is a chance neither finds employment at all. We scoffed when then-Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell threatened it, and -- voilà -- he never did play this past season.
[h=3]Pitchers to avoid in late rounds[/h]
In a general sense, I never recommend avoiding a player after Round 20 or so because the value is fine at that point. If the player struggles in April, just move on. The commitment level is low. However, and this is mainly for starting pitchers, late-round players can still hurt a fantasy team. I avoid the following pitchers, for various reasons:
Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies: People simply never want to stop believing, even when the ERA and WHIP get worse. We love strikeouts, but not with the added mess. This is not solely about playing at Coors Field, either, since his road numbers were more ghastly.
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals: Sure sounds like that valuable right arm is a mess at this point. Give up on him returning to top-20 status anytime soon, and I doubt he closes when the team forces him to the bullpen.
Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals: I invested a season ago and the reward was four innings. Health is a skill he appears to lack, and the Cardinals will be cautious with his workload. Add in a dynasty format, but again, if he cannot stay healthy, it's a problem.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: The concern is not home/road splits. They are not a thing in this instance. What is a thing is the dropping fastball velocity and ability to control left-handed hitters.
Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds: Tell yourself his problem was pitching at Yankee Stadium and then realize the Cincinnati ballpark is a launching pad.
Trevor Williams, Pittsburgh Pirates: The luckiest second-half pitcher in recent years induced soft contact with average stuff and a low K rate. Do not draft last year's numbers.
Dereck Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants: Similar to Williams, the son of Hall of Famer Pudge was hardly a top prospect, and an average K rate portends trouble.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: I feel like I should not need to even type his name here, but the geniuses on TV keep talking about how he'll bounce back. Sure he will. Please. How can you not know what is happening with Felix by now?
Matt Harvey, Los Angeles Angels: His Cincinnati numbers really were not so great. Now he has to face designated hitters on a regular basis. Stop living in the past. It seems fitting that Hernandez, Harvey, Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright and free agent Bartolo Colon boast roughly the same ADP. It's a sign!
