Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State Aggies (10-2, 6-0 WAC) vs. Toledo Rockets (9-3, 6-2 MAC)
Location: Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
Bronco Stadium is located 2,700 feet above sea level and is famous for its blue turf. The Aggies play in Logan, Utah at 4,500 feet above sea level and the Rockets play in Toledo at 614 feet above sea level. Both teams are used to cold environments from Utah and Ohio, respectively. Logan is a little less than 300 miles (5 hour drive or so) from Boise Idaho and Toledo is obviously a long plane ride. Utah State has some experience playing on the blue turf of that stadium having played against Boise State there in 2010 and again against Ohio in last year’s Famous Idaho Bowl. As you can see there are some factors favoring Utah State with regards to the venue. They are close and their fans can travel easily… it is not a resort destination for the Toledo fans to get excited to travel to .. it has a unique playing surface that they have played on before and of course there is a big edge with the elevation difference.
Coaching: Gary Andersen vs. Matt Campbell
I think you have to admire what Gary Andersen has done with the Utah State program, leading them to its second consecutive bowl appearance after not having seen a bowl game since 1997. Matt Campbell coached Toledo to a victory in the Military Bowl after Tim Beckman left for the Illinois job last year on a failed two pt conversion try by the Falcons at the end of the game. Campbell is in his first year as HC of the Rockets and the bowl game probably does mean something to him. I have to give Andersen the advantage here because he has done so well but do so with the Caveat that I don’t have a strong opinion of Matt Campbell either positively or negatively.
Motivational Edges:
Utah State has some strong motivation here. They haven’t won a bowl game since 1993 and these players failed to end that streak last year in a close loss to Ohio in the same bowl game. One could argue that this motivation didn’t help them last year. In addition to that, the team feels they just missed making a BCS bowl game this year. The rule that allowed NIU into a BCS bowl was in play for Utah State with one less loss. They finished 22nd in the BCS standings. The Aggies have a lot of returning starters for next year and they believe a bowl win will help them to possibly make the preseason polls next year which would give them an inside track to such an occurrence again.
In addition to those motivational factors, the school and community has really bonded together after Utah State Guard/Forward Danny Berger survived a brush with death and cardiac arrest earlier this month. I am not a huge believer in cross-sport motivation but this is a story that really had legs in Logan. Toledo has minimal motivation in my opinion. I think anytime you have a first year coach playing in a bowl game that there is motivation to win it and put your stamp onto the program but how can Toledo get excited for this game? The opponent is Utah State, the fan base will not travel to the game and the “reward” most Ohio school’s look for in their bowl game is to either get a big bowl game/opponent or to get the heck out of the cold and into a more fun and more warm environment. I don’t see how they could be excited for this game. I think there are rather large motivational edges for Utah State here.
Conference/Strength of Schedule/Current Form:
Utah State comes into the game in great form having won its last 6 games, including a 48-41 overtime win over then #20th ranked Louisiana Tech. The Aggies play in the WAC which was an exceptionally weak conference this year but they did play three rather significant nonconference games against Wisconsin, Utah and BYU. It should be noted that both of their losses came from that group of games with a 2 point loss to Wisconsin and a 3 point loss to BYU. However, it should also be noted that they held Wisconsin to 12 first downs and missed a 37 yard game winning FG with seconds remaining and lost 16-14. And they held BYU to 6 points and had a chance to tie halfway through the fourth quarter but again missed a FG, this time from 38 yards. They played 3 bowl teams plus a 9-3 LaTech team that bungled its way out of a bowl appearance.
Toledo appears to be somewhat limping to the finish line. After a big win against Cincinnati which we will talk about in a moment, they won by five against Buffalo, lost consecutive games by a TD each against Ball State and NIU, and finished with a 12 point win against lowly Akron. Their two noteworthy out of conference games were at Arizona and a home tilt to the bearcats of Cincinnati. They beat one of them and took the other to overtime which would seem to be impressive at first glance but really is not. Their overtime loss to Arizona was a game where they were outgained 624 – 358. It takes a small miracle to get a game to overtime with those kinds of yardage numbers. Against Cincinnati they were at a 5 fd deficit and were outgained by 123 yards but had an interception return for a TD and a kickoff return for a TD to get a narrow win. The Rockets played 6 bowl teams and went 3-3 in those games with wins over BGSU, Cincinnati and Central Michigan. Their losses were to Arizona, Ball State and NIU. They played in the MAC conference which I rate as a weak conference but a notch above the WAC overall.
I think that Utah State is in much better current form, I think their performances against competition are more impressive but I think Toledo has played the overall tougher schedule from the better conference of the two.
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"I intend to post thoughts on every single bowl game and the writeups for these games tend to show my handicapping style. I truly believe those who are not currently winning cappers could learn how to handicap college football by using the principles found in these writeups. I recommend using them not only to understand each play, but to understand how one comes to find quality investments in this particular sport.
"If you do not wish to read long writeups or articles, each writeup will have a summary at the bottom and you can skip to that for the basic reasoning or you can just look at the selection itself and be on your merry way. I work really hard to try and provide you guys with winners. I cannot always make the time to write up the plays each week but I think you will really enjoy the bowl content this season. I will add plays as I cap the games out. I will also be advocating the purchase of half points in certain games this year. I advise you to take my advice on those half points or to find a better number. I will not be providing limitations. Use your own judgement. Again with weeks between some selections and gametime you may see movement either for the good or the bad. I will have writeups for every play at least a day prior to gameday and at times weeks prior. Check in daily.
"Because of the time I spend handicapping during bowl season, I will be making an investment in every bowl game this season. Some of these edges will be smaller than normal. If you want to limit exposure you will likely be able to ascertain which ones I am really confident about by the accompanying writeup. Please reread that .. I will be recommending at least one play in every bowl game this season(obviously some will be small edges). In addition to that, I will be watching almost all bowl games with the exception of the Hawaii bowl ( Christmas eve ). Therefore I will be stalking halftimes on each."
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Location: Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
Bronco Stadium is located 2,700 feet above sea level and is famous for its blue turf. The Aggies play in Logan, Utah at 4,500 feet above sea level and the Rockets play in Toledo at 614 feet above sea level. Both teams are used to cold environments from Utah and Ohio, respectively. Logan is a little less than 300 miles (5 hour drive or so) from Boise Idaho and Toledo is obviously a long plane ride. Utah State has some experience playing on the blue turf of that stadium having played against Boise State there in 2010 and again against Ohio in last year’s Famous Idaho Bowl. As you can see there are some factors favoring Utah State with regards to the venue. They are close and their fans can travel easily… it is not a resort destination for the Toledo fans to get excited to travel to .. it has a unique playing surface that they have played on before and of course there is a big edge with the elevation difference.
Coaching: Gary Andersen vs. Matt Campbell
I think you have to admire what Gary Andersen has done with the Utah State program, leading them to its second consecutive bowl appearance after not having seen a bowl game since 1997. Matt Campbell coached Toledo to a victory in the Military Bowl after Tim Beckman left for the Illinois job last year on a failed two pt conversion try by the Falcons at the end of the game. Campbell is in his first year as HC of the Rockets and the bowl game probably does mean something to him. I have to give Andersen the advantage here because he has done so well but do so with the Caveat that I don’t have a strong opinion of Matt Campbell either positively or negatively.
Motivational Edges:
Utah State has some strong motivation here. They haven’t won a bowl game since 1993 and these players failed to end that streak last year in a close loss to Ohio in the same bowl game. One could argue that this motivation didn’t help them last year. In addition to that, the team feels they just missed making a BCS bowl game this year. The rule that allowed NIU into a BCS bowl was in play for Utah State with one less loss. They finished 22nd in the BCS standings. The Aggies have a lot of returning starters for next year and they believe a bowl win will help them to possibly make the preseason polls next year which would give them an inside track to such an occurrence again.
In addition to those motivational factors, the school and community has really bonded together after Utah State Guard/Forward Danny Berger survived a brush with death and cardiac arrest earlier this month. I am not a huge believer in cross-sport motivation but this is a story that really had legs in Logan. Toledo has minimal motivation in my opinion. I think anytime you have a first year coach playing in a bowl game that there is motivation to win it and put your stamp onto the program but how can Toledo get excited for this game? The opponent is Utah State, the fan base will not travel to the game and the “reward” most Ohio school’s look for in their bowl game is to either get a big bowl game/opponent or to get the heck out of the cold and into a more fun and more warm environment. I don’t see how they could be excited for this game. I think there are rather large motivational edges for Utah State here.
Conference/Strength of Schedule/Current Form:
Utah State comes into the game in great form having won its last 6 games, including a 48-41 overtime win over then #20th ranked Louisiana Tech. The Aggies play in the WAC which was an exceptionally weak conference this year but they did play three rather significant nonconference games against Wisconsin, Utah and BYU. It should be noted that both of their losses came from that group of games with a 2 point loss to Wisconsin and a 3 point loss to BYU. However, it should also be noted that they held Wisconsin to 12 first downs and missed a 37 yard game winning FG with seconds remaining and lost 16-14. And they held BYU to 6 points and had a chance to tie halfway through the fourth quarter but again missed a FG, this time from 38 yards. They played 3 bowl teams plus a 9-3 LaTech team that bungled its way out of a bowl appearance.
Toledo appears to be somewhat limping to the finish line. After a big win against Cincinnati which we will talk about in a moment, they won by five against Buffalo, lost consecutive games by a TD each against Ball State and NIU, and finished with a 12 point win against lowly Akron. Their two noteworthy out of conference games were at Arizona and a home tilt to the bearcats of Cincinnati. They beat one of them and took the other to overtime which would seem to be impressive at first glance but really is not. Their overtime loss to Arizona was a game where they were outgained 624 – 358. It takes a small miracle to get a game to overtime with those kinds of yardage numbers. Against Cincinnati they were at a 5 fd deficit and were outgained by 123 yards but had an interception return for a TD and a kickoff return for a TD to get a narrow win. The Rockets played 6 bowl teams and went 3-3 in those games with wins over BGSU, Cincinnati and Central Michigan. Their losses were to Arizona, Ball State and NIU. They played in the MAC conference which I rate as a weak conference but a notch above the WAC overall.
I think that Utah State is in much better current form, I think their performances against competition are more impressive but I think Toledo has played the overall tougher schedule from the better conference of the two.
For the complete write-up and analysis of this game, sign up for our Bowl Season Money-Back Guarantee in the next 2 days!! http://www.gameanalysts.com
GameAnalysts.com is offering this special deal for the next 2 days ... enroll as a new subscriber for the College Bowl Season and get a full, 100% refund if we don't win!
There are 35 bowl games this year, starting with the GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL at 1pm EST on Saturday, December 15, and we will have at least 1 play on each of the 35 games.
Our recommendations have earned players over 19 units this fall already, including 8.5 units in college football, and we are so confident, that if we have a losing record in the bowl season, we will provide you with a full refund, no questions asked.
Here's a message from VK on the College Bowl Season:
"I intend to post thoughts on every single bowl game and the writeups for these games tend to show my handicapping style. I truly believe those who are not currently winning cappers could learn how to handicap college football by using the principles found in these writeups. I recommend using them not only to understand each play, but to understand how one comes to find quality investments in this particular sport.
"If you do not wish to read long writeups or articles, each writeup will have a summary at the bottom and you can skip to that for the basic reasoning or you can just look at the selection itself and be on your merry way. I work really hard to try and provide you guys with winners. I cannot always make the time to write up the plays each week but I think you will really enjoy the bowl content this season. I will add plays as I cap the games out. I will also be advocating the purchase of half points in certain games this year. I advise you to take my advice on those half points or to find a better number. I will not be providing limitations. Use your own judgement. Again with weeks between some selections and gametime you may see movement either for the good or the bad. I will have writeups for every play at least a day prior to gameday and at times weeks prior. Check in daily.
"Because of the time I spend handicapping during bowl season, I will be making an investment in every bowl game this season. Some of these edges will be smaller than normal. If you want to limit exposure you will likely be able to ascertain which ones I am really confident about by the accompanying writeup. Please reread that .. I will be recommending at least one play in every bowl game this season(obviously some will be small edges). In addition to that, I will be watching almost all bowl games with the exception of the Hawaii bowl ( Christmas eve ). Therefore I will be stalking halftimes on each."
For one low monthly price, you'll get all our College Bowl Season Plays, plus have access to other areas of the site including the NBA, the NFL and College Basketball.
We win, you win!
We lose, you get a 100% refund!
Simple as that, so sign up today at http://www.gameanalysts.com
Follow along on Twitter @Game_Analysts
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