Fairgrounds - LeComte Stakes - Full Card Analysis

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RACE 1 - #9 – GRACELEADSUSHOME – 8/1 – WP – We’re coming out of the gates backing a first-time starter from the Louis Roussell barn. One thing we’re hoping to see is early speed from the break.


We feel the past two works are sandbag moves as you can see this son of Congrats showed speed going 3F at Gulfstream Park and on November 15th here at the Fairgrounds.


One other angle, is Louis and Ronnie like to win on big days and what a way to start the day in the winner’s circle!!




RACE 2 - #8 – ONE MORE BABY – 6/1 – WP – He finally gets off the inside as in his 3 career starts, he’s broke from the following post (1-2-1) and now today he gets the open outside post and will be able to dictate the lead or layoff the early presser from the jump. The Biscuit was in the iron for his debut, and most probably has been working him in the AM. Very nice work tab for this race.




RACE 3 - #7 – KEVIN’S FOLLY – 9/2 – WP – Can you say “Class Relief”, this is probably the easiest field he’s faced to date.


Now we have Amoss adding the hood and Lasix for today’s start. We’re expecting a huge run for this son of Distorted Humor!




RACE 4 - #7 – WING COMMNADER – 12/1 – WP – We know this one very well, we backed him first out at 26/1 and he ran his eyeballs out for Howard. We love James G. up in the irons today as he knows these blades very well here at the Fairgrounds.


We see him in the race early and we won’t be shocked if he crosses the finish line first at double digit odds!!




RACE 5 - #9 – FENWICK – 9/2 – WP – We all know that Steve likes to win on big days and has his runner in peak form for big a effort. This is also one of our favorite angles, two works 12 days and entered in the gate.


That signals a very sound horse and that work on the 11th was the goods as he came home his final 3F that AM in 35.3!!!




RACE 6 - #9 – BAJ – 5/1 – WP – The Bun Man is 0/4 to date at the meet. One thing that is glaring to us is B.J. taking the mount today as we all know that Brian knows this weed course like the back of his hand and BAJ is regally bred for the blades and it doesn’t hurt to get LASIX today.


ADDED WAGER – EXACTA BOX – 3-6-8-9-13




RACE 7 - #11 – ELLE OF THE BALL – 8/1 – WP – She had no shot last out as she basically dwelt in the gate and spotted the field about 5 lengths. Her head was cocked to the left when the gate popped and she was flat footed and lost all chance from that point.


One thing to note, she was 6/1 on the ML that day and went off at 7/2 as she took money. Joe has been very COLD over the main track all meet, but we feel this one is better than her last two races. Don’t be shocked if she goes off higher than the listed ML!




RACE 8 - #7 – MANNY WAH – 3/1 – WP – We backed Manny last out and he just wasn’t good enough that day to run down Just Might. We see Just Might getting a little more pressure this afternoon and don’t be surprised if Manny don’t duplicate last year’s Duncan Kenner slingshot move to the winner’s circle.


It’s ashamed that MIGGY won’t be up this year, RIP!!!




RACE 9 - #13 – ZOZOS – 6/1 – WP – We were tipped to him during the Keeneland fall meet from out backstretch contact, he never showed up at Keeneland and has a very strong and lengthy work tab for his unveiling.


We feel, he’ll draw in as the 1 and 2 are both entered for Sunday! This one could be a debut MONSTER for Cox! Also note, Reylu doesn’t have a mount!




RACE 10 - #10 – PASS THE PLATE – 6/1 – WP – This mare has run extremely well over this weed course and she’ll also get non-firm blades today and the early pace will be to her benefit as well as she’s drawn nice as she’ll move in a few spots from the early scratches.


She’ll make you lean as she’ll be finishing like a freight train way outside down the lane!


EXACTA KEY – 10 OVER 1-3-4-6-8-12 – REVERSE IN 2ND HOLE ALSO!




RACE 11 - #4 – SWEET AS PIE – 5/2 – WP – TAP’s not shipping in for a prep race. We know she can win off a layoff as she won at first asking. She also gets off the rail today as she’s been trapped down inside in both her career starts. Look for FLO to have her in the race early and we feel she’ll finish this group down the lane.




RACE 12 - #3 – CALVARY CHARGE – 8/1 – WP – He was extremely good to us last out at Keenland, this son of Honor Code has become a totally different animal over the weeds. All four of his career wins are over the blades and it doesn’t matter if it’s firm or some give in the ground. He can run well over any going and he looks ready to fire right back for Dallas and B.J.!


ADDED WAGER – EXACTA KEY – 3/11 OVER ALL





RACE 13 - #2 – MANDALOUN – 1/1 – WIN BET ONLY – He should get the perfect stalking trip for his comeback effort today. He loves this track and has been working as good as he did last year during the Triple Crown trail.


We see FlO stalking the speed and then unleashing a huge run down the lane.





RACE 14 – “THE LECOMTE” - #3 – PAPPACAP – 8/5 – WP – Mark C. has always been high in this son of Gun Runner and he hasn’t disappointed over the track in the afternoon.


He’s really been working well for this comeback effort today; we fell he’ll get a great trip and he looks to be the best finisher in the race and look for Casse and his crew back in the winner’s circle today as they’ve had a strong hold on this race in the past few years.​
 

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NEW SELECTION - RACE 9 - #11 – I’M YOUR CAPTAIN – 20/1 – WP – Well we thought Cox was going to run Zozo’s today, but he’s decided to keep him in the nightcap tomorrow. We went back and looked at this one’s workouts. He starts working 2F back in April of 21!



We just cannot help to notice this blazing just 8 days ago. It’s beyond any of his past 4F works, his prior works at 4F have been (49.4,50,49), what changed on the 14th?

We know this is a salty field and it’ll take a huge effort 1st out to get past this group down the lane, but we feel this one as turned on the switch for this race.​
 

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