Fading RLM

letsgohoosiers · Apr 2, 2009

Figures, Magic lose tonight, opening as 10 point favorites. I find a 55-0 streak and the last two days it loses twice.

Do I consider a 0.5 point move significant? Yes. Games that have more than 50% on a team yet the line moves 0.5 points the other way are 45-28 (+14.2 units) since Feb 1.

I bet minutes before the game starts. NBA games always start 5 minutes past the hour, so wait for the update every half hour at Sports Insights to check if the percentages held up, and check SBR Lines to see if the line is fine.

I would also try and only bet on games where there is 56% or more on a team. 56% or more on teams that see the line move the other way are 73-45-2 (62%). If you want to eliminate teams with an unusually high amount on them (83% or more), it improves to 71-40-2 (64%).

letsgohoosiers · Apr 2, 2009

Unbelievable, the Cavaliers go down tonight.

arewson · Apr 2, 2009

What the Hell is this mess u r posthing?

No real eplanation of what your finding are here. Give us something to work with here are u playing ml's here? And why the favs this late in the season????

letsgohoosiers · Apr 3, 2009

A solid opportunity to make 13.45%

Jazz -1700, Suns -1400, PARLAY

You can shop around and get better rates, I'm listing what is on Bookmaker.

There's also some other high probability winners in other sports.
Handball: ZARJA KASPIA A -1300
Handball: VFL GUMMERSBACH -2500
Handball: THW KIEL -800
Handball: FC BARCELONA BORGES -10000 (WOW)
Handball: MT MELSUNGEN -800
Aussie Rules: GEELONG CATS -1400
MMA: EDDIE ALVAREZ -800

Parlaying all those would double your money.

Unbelievable that 3 straight days a DD favorite has lost. I swear once I post these systems they go to the crapper.

letsgohoosiers · Apr 3, 2009

How crazy is that? Utah loses! 4 days in a row!

RLM seems to be doing very well though.

letsgohoosiers · Apr 5, 2009

OK, Fading RLM has hit a groove. Hasn't had a losing night since March 15. Seeing as every system I have posted has gone to the crapper, should I start fading this?

BET on any FAVORITE with 50-81% of the public on them that has seen the line move 0.5 or 1.0 points towards the OTHER team.

Record: 66-34 (66%) since February 1st

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="537" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="553"><col style="width: 22pt;" width="29"> <col style="width: 144pt;" width="192"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 24pt;" width="32"> <col style="width: 30pt;" span="2" width="40"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 36pt;" width="48"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="50"> <col style="width: 52pt;" width="69"> <col style="width: 36pt;" width="48"> <col style="width: 29pt;" width="39"> <col style="width: 35pt;" width="47"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt; width: 22pt;" width="29" align="right" height="20">103</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 144pt;" width="192">505 Portland Trail Blazers</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 32pt;" width="42" align="right">7421</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 24pt;" width="32" align="right">61%</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 30pt;" width="40" align="right">-6.5</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 30pt;" width="40" align="right">-6</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33" align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 38pt;" width="50" align="right">16-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td style="width: 36pt;" width="48">W</td> <td style="width: 35pt;" width="47">AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">123</td> <td class="xl64">622 Los Angeles Clippers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">5916</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">51%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-7</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">18-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">106</td> <td class="xl64">615 Orlando Magic</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">8200</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">73%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">18-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">95</td> <td class="xl64">702 Atlanta Hawks</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6365</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">52%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">19-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">114</td> <td class="xl64">706 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">12437</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">56%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-13.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-13</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">19-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">107</td> <td class="xl64">816 Houston Rockets</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6194</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">51%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-11.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-11</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">20-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">101</td> <td class="xl64">809 Utah Jazz</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6352</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">68%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">20-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">96</td> <td class="xl64">511 Portland Trail Blazers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">5996</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">75%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">21-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">117</td> <td class="xl64">509 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">16952</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">80%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3.5</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">21-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">85</td> <td class="xl64">702 San Antonio Spurs</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">11381</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">72%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">22-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">96</td> <td class="xl64">709 Cleveland Cavaliers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">11302</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">81%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-7</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">22-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">94</td> <td class="xl64">606 Miami Heat</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">9863</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">64%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-9</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-8.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">23-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">107</td> <td class="xl64">641 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">16490</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">76%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-8</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-7.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">24-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">135</td> <td class="xl64">674 New York Knicks</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6827</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">71%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-7</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">25-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">101</td> <td class="xl64">866 Dallas Mavericks</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">7659</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">51%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">27-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">112</td> <td class="xl64">852 Toronto Raptors</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6669</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">53%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">27-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">95</td> <td class="xl64">856 Philadelphia 76ers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">7646</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">59%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4.5</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">27-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">107</td> <td class="xl64">862 Cleveland Cavaliers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">4293</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">67%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-14.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-14</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">27-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl64">868 San Antonio Spurs</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">12041</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">73%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-12</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-11.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">27-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">102</td> <td class="xl64">508 Miami Heat</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">12173</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">70%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-9</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-8.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">28-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">86</td> <td class="xl64">516 Portland Trail Blazers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">11804</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">72%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-13</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-12.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">28-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">101</td> <td class="xl64">710 Detroit Pistons</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">7778</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">59%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">29-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">76</td> <td class="xl64">703 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">16476</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">75%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">29-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">103</td> <td class="xl64">714 Boston Celtics</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">19803</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">85%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-11.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-10.5</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">29-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">112</td> <td class="xl64">736 Utah Jazz</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">13348</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">61%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-12</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-11</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">30-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">101</td> <td class="xl64">731 Orlando Magic</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">12081</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">66%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">30-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">98</td> <td class="xl64">754 Philadelphia 76ers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">7395</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">62%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">31-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl64">767 New Orleans Hornets</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">9599</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">69%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-7</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">31-Mar</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">114</td> <td class="xl64">514 Phoenix Suns</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">15447</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">53%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-1.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">1-Apr</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">112</td> <td class="xl64">510 Memphis Grizzlies</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6695</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">63%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">1-Apr</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">104</td> <td class="xl64">507 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">14576</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">80%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-7.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-7</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">1-Apr</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>L</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">107</td> <td class="xl64">509 Portland Trail Blazers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">12120</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">62%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">3-Apr</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">104</td> <td class="xl64">506 Boston Celtics</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">13150</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">68%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4.5</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">3-Apr</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">93</td> <td class="xl64">520 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">17572</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">72%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5</td> <td align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">3-Apr</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">118</td> <td class="xl64">809 Miami Heat</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">7342</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">60%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-1.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">4-Apr</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">88</td> <td class="xl64">807 Orlando Magic</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">13942</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">63%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-1.5</td> <td align="right">-0.5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">4-Apr</td> <td valign="top">
</td><td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
There were two games earlier today that already won: Dallas -3.5 and Cleveland -5.5. That makes it 68-34 (67%) and 7 straight winners.

Toronto -5 was a play. That's currently in progress.

At 7:00 Houston -3.5 and Denver -7.5 are plays. New Orleans is a line shift away from a play.

letsgohoosiers · Apr 5, 2009

Data

Line movements:
-2.0+: 11-11-1
-1.5: 12-10-1
-1.0: 21-16
-0.5: 51-30

Percentages:
69%+: 30-28-1
54-68%: 55-27-1
51-53%: 10-11

Spread:
Underdogs: 19-22
Favorites: 76-45-2

Home/Away:
Away: 45-37-1
Home: 50-30-1

System:

BET on FAVORITES with 60-68% of the public on them (per SportsInsights) with the line moving 0.5 points in favor of the underdog (using Pinnacle lines).

Record: 18-1 (95%) +16.9 units