Fade the Smart Money (22-6-1)

[letsgohoosiers]

Thats not what your 1st post says.

First post said -1.5 movement indicating negative movement, or away from the team, sorry if there was confusion.

 

[GimmeDattt]

So for example.

Michigan St vs Michigan...Line opens Michigan St -4.

65% are on MSU and the line goes to Michigan St -2.5...

Your betting on........

 

[NickfromNJ]

I'm not exactly sure how it works but I'll go for a ride with you on Wright and Kent.

 

[Paddywack]

The system is pretty straight forward.

Wright State opened at -5.5 and they have over 65% of the bets on them according to SI. Yet the line drops 2 full points to -3.5. That makes it a play with this system.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Ok so now Wright State is at -5.5 all the public is on Wright St. Line drops 2 full points.

Why did the line drop? Big smart money was placed on the other side. I don't understand why you are fading smart money.

I don't trust this 22-6-1 record at all.

 

[Paddywack]

Kent State opened at -10.5 and over 80% of the bets on them according to SI. Yet the line has dropped 1.5 points to -9. Making Kent State a play with this system.

 

[HawaiianWarrior+]

Hey hoosier maybe you should draw a picture for this people that dont understand what the system is.............As for me I understand and by the way nice research

 

[GimmeDattt]

I was not confused until he contradicted himself three different times in this thread. Oddly, the two posts I was talking about are no longer in the thread.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I was not confused until he contradicted himself three different times in this thread. Oddly, the two posts I was talking about are no longer in the thread.

I haven't had any posts deleted in this thread. What are you talking about? Am I not being clear to anyone else?

 

[GimmeDattt]

I don't know. Your response to Chase isn't in here anymore.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

For those interested in the NBA, a play tonight would be Dallas -10.5, that fits this criteria. I haven't been tracking the NBA so I have no idea how good of a play this would be.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Lakers -11.5 just fit the criteria for an NBA play. I'm on the Lakers BIG tonight.

 

[apacholikewhoa]

Alright I'll try to explain the philosophy.

There are people who believe sincerely in reverse line movement. This is when there is a smaller percentage on a team that the line is moving towards. This is the "smart money".

For example, in the Wright State-Loyola Chicago game, the line has moved 2 points to Loyola Chicago's side. However, only 34% of the bets are on Loyola Chicago, meaning the "Smart Money" is on Loyola Chicago.

What this is doing, using the aforementioned factors, is fading that. We're taking the other side of the smart money.

People define "squares" as the public, the obvious bets. So whatever side the public is on is a square bet. Squares would be on Wright State.

thank you...makes much more sense now.