Forget last year. Last year Michigan beat Florida, you think Michigan beats Florida this year?
Play the under and stop worrying about who is going to cover. SJSU has a struggling offense, but they have a solid defense.
If you like the game take Boise. Don't OVER analyze. It is one thing to analyze the game, but go with what you feel, don't worry about everyone else.
If you take Boise and they cover, you are going to say, see I told you, if they don't cover, you are going to start doubting yourself in the future when you see others on the opposite side of you and then you will eventually lose another game that you would have been on the correct side.
Confidence is everything in life and even in gambling. If you lose confidence, you will start to lose more plays, as you will begin to second guess yourself.
If you like it, take it and don't worry about what happens, at least you made a play you felt comfortable with.