PART 2: THE RETURNING STARTERS
Many handicappers use a returning starter guide as their sole means of evaluating a college football team’s experience. They often use what I refer to as the “16/5 rule”. This simply states that we are looking to play on a team who has 16 or more returning starters, with 5 or more returning starters than their opponent. This system is usually successful through at least September and often through much of October. This year in 2009 college football, there is an average of 13.6 returning starters per team. Here are the problems with that system:
1. You must have an accurate list of starters, from a reliable source.
2. You must scour injury reports each week to subtract injured starters from your beginning number.
3. You are assuming that it does not matter what positions the returning starters play.
From reviewing the 3 previous issues, you can see why the “16/5 rule” will be somewhat less successful than your expectations. To be more specific, the best use of returning starters must entail the key elements of any football team. That means you want a returning quarterback, and you want stability along both the offensive line and the defensive line. These are the 2 most important, yet most underrated units on any football team. For example, of a team with 7 returning offensive starters, I would far rather have them return their QB and 5 OL than no QB and only 2 OL. Two other factors to always consider when evaluating returning starters is the continuity of the coach staff (review Part 1 in this series of articles) and that our team in consideration had at least 4+ wins the previous year. Though teams with 3 or fewer wins from the previous season may indeed show improvement from last year’s debacle, if they were not able to win more than 3 games LY just how much upside potential do they really have?
Many handicappers use a returning starter guide as their sole means of evaluating a college football team’s experience. They often use what I refer to as the “16/5 rule”. This simply states that we are looking to play on a team who has 16 or more returning starters, with 5 or more returning starters than their opponent. This system is usually successful through at least September and often through much of October. This year in 2009 college football, there is an average of 13.6 returning starters per team. Here are the problems with that system:
1. You must have an accurate list of starters, from a reliable source.
2. You must scour injury reports each week to subtract injured starters from your beginning number.
3. You are assuming that it does not matter what positions the returning starters play.
From reviewing the 3 previous issues, you can see why the “16/5 rule” will be somewhat less successful than your expectations. To be more specific, the best use of returning starters must entail the key elements of any football team. That means you want a returning quarterback, and you want stability along both the offensive line and the defensive line. These are the 2 most important, yet most underrated units on any football team. For example, of a team with 7 returning offensive starters, I would far rather have them return their QB and 5 OL than no QB and only 2 OL. Two other factors to always consider when evaluating returning starters is the continuity of the coach staff (review Part 1 in this series of articles) and that our team in consideration had at least 4+ wins the previous year. Though teams with 3 or fewer wins from the previous season may indeed show improvement from last year’s debacle, if they were not able to win more than 3 games LY just how much upside potential do they really have?
