Experience Counts in College Football
By: Joe Gavazzi, Private Players of Pittsburgh
In previous years I’ve written articles relating to the correlation of a college football team’s experience with their success in the upcoming season. For the 2009 season I will be writing a series of articles which will point out to readers many of the important facets involved in quantifying a team’s experience. This can serve as a “Do it Yourself” guide for the self handicapper who wishes to draw his own conclusions on the ATS success, or lack thereof, of the 2009 season’s 120 college football teams on whom there will be a wagering line every Saturday. For those of you who feel my 30 years of experience may do a better job than yours, please feel free to enlist my services by calling me toll free 800-678-7529. And don’t forget to call for your comp winner every day at 412-967-9737. This free winner on a recorded message has won over 60% of the time on over 200 selections since December, 2008. Call it every day. Tell all your friends.
PART 1: THE COACH AND HIS STAFF
The head coach and his coaching staff are clear indicators of a team’s potential success in any season. In this regard, it is important to not only look at the length of time a head coach has been with the program, but also the number of years his offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator have been with the program. At the most positive end of the spectrum you will find a coaching staff that has been with their team, as a unit, for 4+ years. This means they have been involved in not only recruiting the players but also nurturing them in the same system from their freshmen through senior seasons. This is of immense importance as it builds team unity, chemistry and cohesion among team members. In systems such as these, by the time a player gets to be a senior he is virtually a “coach on the field” as he mentors and grooms the younger players. When these teams are dominated by upper classmen, the value of experience is most meaningful. At the other end of the spectrum is a team that has been through a series of unsuccessful seasons resulting in the dismissal of a head coach, and usually his staff. The administration at the school is usually looking to make a fresh start, often going in an entirely opposite direction with their philosophy. The blocking schemes are wholly unique for the linemen, and skill position players recruited for a running game are often not suited to a passing attack. Likewise, it is hard for a defense that has been taught to react and be more passive, to turn into an attacking, blitzing unit. Do not underestimate how hard it is for college athletes to adjust in just several short weeks of spring training and pre season practices. Lack of continuity in the schemes is a major negative when evaluating a team’s overall experience. Never underestimate the value of a coaching staff on a team’s experience.
PART 2: THE RETURNING STARTERS
Many handicappers use a returning starter guide as their sole means of evaluating a college football team’s experience. They often use what I refer to as the “16/5 rule”. This simply states that we are looking to play on a team who has 16 or more returning starters, with 5 or more returning starters than their opponent. This system is usually successful through at least September and often through much of October. This year in 2009 college football, there is an average of 13.6 returning starters per team. Here are the problems with that system:
1. You must have an accurate list of starters, from a reliable source.
2. You must scour injury reports each week to subtract injured starters from your beginning number.
3. You are assuming that it does not matter what positions the returning starters play.
From reviewing the 3 previous issues, you can see why the “16/5 rule” will be somewhat less successful than your expectations. To be more specific, the best use of returning starters must entail the key elements of any football team. That means you want a returning quarterback, and you want stability along both the offensive line and the defensive line. These are the 2 most important, yet most underrated units on any football team. For example, of a team with 7 returning offensive starters, I would far rather have them return their QB and 5 OL than no QB and only 2 OL. Two other factors to always consider when evaluating returning starters is the continuity of the coach staff (review Part 1 in this series of articles) and that our team in consideration had at least 4+ wins the previous year. Though teams with 3 or fewer wins from the previous season may indeed show improvement from last year’s debacle, if they were not able to win more than 3 games LY just how much upside potential do they really have?
PART 3: RETURNING LETTERMEN
Perhaps of even great importance than the number of returning starters (and their positions) is the percentage of lettermen who return to a team. Since there are no true guidelines as to what constitutes a “letter winner” (It’s at the discretion of the coach), it is more important to use the percentage of returners rather than a raw number. A high percentage of returning lettermen normally indicates a team that is filled with experienced juniors and seniors. A high percentage of returning lettermen also strongly implies there is a better chance of both offensive and defensive linemen returning, and that quality depth has been developed on the team. If the coaching staff returns in tact there is a good possibility that team chemistry, unity, and cohesion is in place as the team aims for lofty goals. The opposite of the above statements is, of course true, if there is a limited percentage of returning lettermen. Teams generally average about 70% returning lettermen in any given year. A generally accepted rule of thumb is the “60/80 rule” indicating that a team with 60% or fewer returning lettermen is an inexperienced team, while a team with 80% or more returning lettermen is an experienced team. When used in conjunction with the “16/5 rule” discussed in “Part 2” of this article, it becomes a valuable general indicator of a team’s experience or lack thereof as they enter the season. Those who wish to delve further into the experience factor could take the time to determine such offensive indicators as “percentage of yard gained that are returned” or such defensive indicators as “percentage of tackles returning”. Each of these generally average around 66% in a given year. In conclusion, returning lettermen may indeed by the most reliable indicator of a team’s early season success. It can become particularly effective when used in conjunction with the returning starters as described above. And always remember to look for continuity in the coaching staff and veteran leadership at the signal caller pot.
PART 4: INTANGIBLES
In “Part 1, 2, and 3” of this 4 part article, we discussed: 1) the coach and his staff, 2) the returning starters, and 3) the returning lettermen. These are the most important factors when determining a team’s experience as they enter the upcoming season. But there are also less obvious factors that play into a team’s success and alter their mindset either positively or negatively. Let’s a take a look at some of these behind the scene factors that are worth consideration:
1. Strength of Schedule – With only 12 games in a regular season, every win and loss goes a long way to building or tearing down a team’s confidence. At the opposite end of the spectrum are a pair of subtle examples that positively or negatively impact a team’s psyche. First, consider a team who faced a difficult schedule last year, but now has a much easier row to hoe for the current season. Regardless of their number of wins in the previous year, they have been toughened by the harder strength of schedule. Even if it is only in their subconscious, the good feelings and confidence derived from their probable success against a weaker slate will result in a team who outperforms expectations. Conversely, a team who faced a relatively easy schedule last year, most likely emerged from the season with inflated good feelings about themselves and overconfidence. Should this team be faced with a considerably more difficult schedule in the current season, it will be easier for their bubble to be burst and more difficult for the confidence to reemerge against a tougher slate of opponents. The handicapper who notes the divergent strength of schedules year over year, and follows a team’s reaction to adversity or success can find the type of value that results in lengthy ATS winning streaks.
2. Margin of ATS wins or losses – I call this the “AFP” (Away From the Point spread.) It is a major factor used by the line maker when he makes an adjustment to a team’s power rating following each game. IF each game were played out true to form, there would be little divergence from the point spread in the outcome. But games in which one team commits multiple turnovers and their opponent scores on several special team’s opportunities, or on fluke plays, result in the type of blowouts we see every weekend in football. Yet those types of unique circumstances tend to even out throughout the campaign. You can take advantage of the value this provides by doing solid preparation in the preseason and following it up with weekly homework. The preparation includes adding and subtracting a team’s AFP to determine their net AFP for the previously complete season. Then compare that number to set of reliable power ratings from the opening of the previous season to the close of the previous season. By comparing your plus or minus AFP number with the difference in opening and closing power ratings, you will get a good feel as to how accurate the adjustments were in the course of the season. When using this conclusion in conjunction with experience factors for the upcoming season, you can find built in value in the early weeks. As the season plays out, do your homework each week to find out which team’s rating has been over adjusted as a result of inaccurate AFP results. This is one of the best ways you can isolate value on a weekly basis. This takes a lot of time but with some practice you will learn to draw your conclusions more quickly and accurately.
3. Last years turnovers – Going hand in glove with the AFP theory is examining a number of net turnovers a team had each year. Since turnovers are to degree random, one can assume that fortune or fate played at least some role in a team’s net outcome of turnovers over the course of a season. Remember the more turnovers a team commits, the more a coaching staff is drilling it into their minds to NOT commit turnovers. Conversely, a team who forces FEW turnovers is being forced to practice the art of making their opponent turnover the ball. Being plus or minus more than 1 net turnover per game over the course of the season will imply that the evening out process will begin to be at work. This often translates into a reversal of a team’s net turnovers the following season and the corresponding reversal of a team’s ATS fortunes. As you begin to study ATP results, as discussed above, you will see what a great correlation there is between net turnovers and the ATP number of a team. Use these two together in your search for value each week.
4. Last year’s injuries – This is a hidden gem. The biggest advantage comes when you realize that quality starters who missed last season, but are returning for the current season are actually a player usually NOT included on returning starter or returning lettermen lists. Yet these players add depth and create competition. In a similar way, multiple players being injured can be disastrous to the outcome of a season particularly if they are spread out over several games. The good news is that this gives reserve players more playing time and experience and creates extra depth in the following season when these players are all competing for jobs. This can be a powerful, yet underestimated factor, when considering the intensity level with which a team practices and plays.
Conclusion – I hope you have enjoyed this 4 part article on “Experience Counts in College Football”. Literally hundreds of hours of work can go into preparing for the upcoming college football season to explore and draw conclusions from all the factors discussed in this 4 part article. At my Private Players of Pittsburgh offices, we spend much of the summer putting all this information into a massive spreadsheet. This immensely helpful organizational tool allows me to reach conclusions at a glance and to compare one team to another for any given Saturday. If you like what you have read in this article but don’t feel you have the hundreds of hours necessary to compile the information, you may wish to take advantage of my services. I draw conclusions from not only this preseason information but from the weekly data that is accumulated as the season marches on. For rates, details and information about selection services offered, you may contact me toll free at 1-800-678-7529 or via email at joesplays@hotmail.com.
By: Joe Gavazzi, Private Players of Pittsburgh
In previous years I’ve written articles relating to the correlation of a college football team’s experience with their success in the upcoming season. For the 2009 season I will be writing a series of articles which will point out to readers many of the important facets involved in quantifying a team’s experience. This can serve as a “Do it Yourself” guide for the self handicapper who wishes to draw his own conclusions on the ATS success, or lack thereof, of the 2009 season’s 120 college football teams on whom there will be a wagering line every Saturday. For those of you who feel my 30 years of experience may do a better job than yours, please feel free to enlist my services by calling me toll free 800-678-7529. And don’t forget to call for your comp winner every day at 412-967-9737. This free winner on a recorded message has won over 60% of the time on over 200 selections since December, 2008. Call it every day. Tell all your friends.
PART 1: THE COACH AND HIS STAFF
The head coach and his coaching staff are clear indicators of a team’s potential success in any season. In this regard, it is important to not only look at the length of time a head coach has been with the program, but also the number of years his offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator have been with the program. At the most positive end of the spectrum you will find a coaching staff that has been with their team, as a unit, for 4+ years. This means they have been involved in not only recruiting the players but also nurturing them in the same system from their freshmen through senior seasons. This is of immense importance as it builds team unity, chemistry and cohesion among team members. In systems such as these, by the time a player gets to be a senior he is virtually a “coach on the field” as he mentors and grooms the younger players. When these teams are dominated by upper classmen, the value of experience is most meaningful. At the other end of the spectrum is a team that has been through a series of unsuccessful seasons resulting in the dismissal of a head coach, and usually his staff. The administration at the school is usually looking to make a fresh start, often going in an entirely opposite direction with their philosophy. The blocking schemes are wholly unique for the linemen, and skill position players recruited for a running game are often not suited to a passing attack. Likewise, it is hard for a defense that has been taught to react and be more passive, to turn into an attacking, blitzing unit. Do not underestimate how hard it is for college athletes to adjust in just several short weeks of spring training and pre season practices. Lack of continuity in the schemes is a major negative when evaluating a team’s overall experience. Never underestimate the value of a coaching staff on a team’s experience.
PART 2: THE RETURNING STARTERS
Many handicappers use a returning starter guide as their sole means of evaluating a college football team’s experience. They often use what I refer to as the “16/5 rule”. This simply states that we are looking to play on a team who has 16 or more returning starters, with 5 or more returning starters than their opponent. This system is usually successful through at least September and often through much of October. This year in 2009 college football, there is an average of 13.6 returning starters per team. Here are the problems with that system:
1. You must have an accurate list of starters, from a reliable source.
2. You must scour injury reports each week to subtract injured starters from your beginning number.
3. You are assuming that it does not matter what positions the returning starters play.
From reviewing the 3 previous issues, you can see why the “16/5 rule” will be somewhat less successful than your expectations. To be more specific, the best use of returning starters must entail the key elements of any football team. That means you want a returning quarterback, and you want stability along both the offensive line and the defensive line. These are the 2 most important, yet most underrated units on any football team. For example, of a team with 7 returning offensive starters, I would far rather have them return their QB and 5 OL than no QB and only 2 OL. Two other factors to always consider when evaluating returning starters is the continuity of the coach staff (review Part 1 in this series of articles) and that our team in consideration had at least 4+ wins the previous year. Though teams with 3 or fewer wins from the previous season may indeed show improvement from last year’s debacle, if they were not able to win more than 3 games LY just how much upside potential do they really have?
PART 3: RETURNING LETTERMEN
Perhaps of even great importance than the number of returning starters (and their positions) is the percentage of lettermen who return to a team. Since there are no true guidelines as to what constitutes a “letter winner” (It’s at the discretion of the coach), it is more important to use the percentage of returners rather than a raw number. A high percentage of returning lettermen normally indicates a team that is filled with experienced juniors and seniors. A high percentage of returning lettermen also strongly implies there is a better chance of both offensive and defensive linemen returning, and that quality depth has been developed on the team. If the coaching staff returns in tact there is a good possibility that team chemistry, unity, and cohesion is in place as the team aims for lofty goals. The opposite of the above statements is, of course true, if there is a limited percentage of returning lettermen. Teams generally average about 70% returning lettermen in any given year. A generally accepted rule of thumb is the “60/80 rule” indicating that a team with 60% or fewer returning lettermen is an inexperienced team, while a team with 80% or more returning lettermen is an experienced team. When used in conjunction with the “16/5 rule” discussed in “Part 2” of this article, it becomes a valuable general indicator of a team’s experience or lack thereof as they enter the season. Those who wish to delve further into the experience factor could take the time to determine such offensive indicators as “percentage of yard gained that are returned” or such defensive indicators as “percentage of tackles returning”. Each of these generally average around 66% in a given year. In conclusion, returning lettermen may indeed by the most reliable indicator of a team’s early season success. It can become particularly effective when used in conjunction with the returning starters as described above. And always remember to look for continuity in the coaching staff and veteran leadership at the signal caller pot.
PART 4: INTANGIBLES
In “Part 1, 2, and 3” of this 4 part article, we discussed: 1) the coach and his staff, 2) the returning starters, and 3) the returning lettermen. These are the most important factors when determining a team’s experience as they enter the upcoming season. But there are also less obvious factors that play into a team’s success and alter their mindset either positively or negatively. Let’s a take a look at some of these behind the scene factors that are worth consideration:
1. Strength of Schedule – With only 12 games in a regular season, every win and loss goes a long way to building or tearing down a team’s confidence. At the opposite end of the spectrum are a pair of subtle examples that positively or negatively impact a team’s psyche. First, consider a team who faced a difficult schedule last year, but now has a much easier row to hoe for the current season. Regardless of their number of wins in the previous year, they have been toughened by the harder strength of schedule. Even if it is only in their subconscious, the good feelings and confidence derived from their probable success against a weaker slate will result in a team who outperforms expectations. Conversely, a team who faced a relatively easy schedule last year, most likely emerged from the season with inflated good feelings about themselves and overconfidence. Should this team be faced with a considerably more difficult schedule in the current season, it will be easier for their bubble to be burst and more difficult for the confidence to reemerge against a tougher slate of opponents. The handicapper who notes the divergent strength of schedules year over year, and follows a team’s reaction to adversity or success can find the type of value that results in lengthy ATS winning streaks.
2. Margin of ATS wins or losses – I call this the “AFP” (Away From the Point spread.) It is a major factor used by the line maker when he makes an adjustment to a team’s power rating following each game. IF each game were played out true to form, there would be little divergence from the point spread in the outcome. But games in which one team commits multiple turnovers and their opponent scores on several special team’s opportunities, or on fluke plays, result in the type of blowouts we see every weekend in football. Yet those types of unique circumstances tend to even out throughout the campaign. You can take advantage of the value this provides by doing solid preparation in the preseason and following it up with weekly homework. The preparation includes adding and subtracting a team’s AFP to determine their net AFP for the previously complete season. Then compare that number to set of reliable power ratings from the opening of the previous season to the close of the previous season. By comparing your plus or minus AFP number with the difference in opening and closing power ratings, you will get a good feel as to how accurate the adjustments were in the course of the season. When using this conclusion in conjunction with experience factors for the upcoming season, you can find built in value in the early weeks. As the season plays out, do your homework each week to find out which team’s rating has been over adjusted as a result of inaccurate AFP results. This is one of the best ways you can isolate value on a weekly basis. This takes a lot of time but with some practice you will learn to draw your conclusions more quickly and accurately.
3. Last years turnovers – Going hand in glove with the AFP theory is examining a number of net turnovers a team had each year. Since turnovers are to degree random, one can assume that fortune or fate played at least some role in a team’s net outcome of turnovers over the course of a season. Remember the more turnovers a team commits, the more a coaching staff is drilling it into their minds to NOT commit turnovers. Conversely, a team who forces FEW turnovers is being forced to practice the art of making their opponent turnover the ball. Being plus or minus more than 1 net turnover per game over the course of the season will imply that the evening out process will begin to be at work. This often translates into a reversal of a team’s net turnovers the following season and the corresponding reversal of a team’s ATS fortunes. As you begin to study ATP results, as discussed above, you will see what a great correlation there is between net turnovers and the ATP number of a team. Use these two together in your search for value each week.
4. Last year’s injuries – This is a hidden gem. The biggest advantage comes when you realize that quality starters who missed last season, but are returning for the current season are actually a player usually NOT included on returning starter or returning lettermen lists. Yet these players add depth and create competition. In a similar way, multiple players being injured can be disastrous to the outcome of a season particularly if they are spread out over several games. The good news is that this gives reserve players more playing time and experience and creates extra depth in the following season when these players are all competing for jobs. This can be a powerful, yet underestimated factor, when considering the intensity level with which a team practices and plays.
Conclusion – I hope you have enjoyed this 4 part article on “Experience Counts in College Football”. Literally hundreds of hours of work can go into preparing for the upcoming college football season to explore and draw conclusions from all the factors discussed in this 4 part article. At my Private Players of Pittsburgh offices, we spend much of the summer putting all this information into a massive spreadsheet. This immensely helpful organizational tool allows me to reach conclusions at a glance and to compare one team to another for any given Saturday. If you like what you have read in this article but don’t feel you have the hundreds of hours necessary to compile the information, you may wish to take advantage of my services. I draw conclusions from not only this preseason information but from the weekly data that is accumulated as the season marches on. For rates, details and information about selection services offered, you may contact me toll free at 1-800-678-7529 or via email at joesplays@hotmail.com.
