The most important thing for Advanced Sports Bettors to remember is that not all byes are created equal…
*Byes help veteran teams more than young teams. Even if you’re not as old as the Dean of Sports Handicapping, you’ve probably come to understand the value of rest and recuperation as you get older. Veteran teams benefit greatly from having some time to recover from the physical damage done during the regular season. Younger teams tend to have enough energy and exuberance to play at peak intensity through the playoffs.
*Byes help well-coached teams more than poorly-coached teams. Give a smart coach extra time to prepare, and he’s going to come up with meaningful adjustments that will help his team win. Give a bad coach extra time to prepare…and he either won’t do anything or he’ll make bad choices. We’ve seen often over the years that the value of coaching looms very large over who wins and covers playoff games. Many of the best coaches in the modern era have made great use of their bye weeks.
*Byes help fresh teams really exploit the fatigue of worn down opponents. Many second round blowouts over the years weren’t necessarily caused by the greatness of the fresh host. They were caused by a tired visitor completely running out of gas because they hadn’t had a break in a couple of months. Bye teams can lose on their home fields, but it’s never because they ran out of gas! Remember that the hidden value of the bye involves the negatives that hit the team who DIDN’T have one.
*Byes help veteran teams more than young teams. Even if you’re not as old as the Dean of Sports Handicapping, you’ve probably come to understand the value of rest and recuperation as you get older. Veteran teams benefit greatly from having some time to recover from the physical damage done during the regular season. Younger teams tend to have enough energy and exuberance to play at peak intensity through the playoffs.
*Byes help well-coached teams more than poorly-coached teams. Give a smart coach extra time to prepare, and he’s going to come up with meaningful adjustments that will help his team win. Give a bad coach extra time to prepare…and he either won’t do anything or he’ll make bad choices. We’ve seen often over the years that the value of coaching looms very large over who wins and covers playoff games. Many of the best coaches in the modern era have made great use of their bye weeks.
*Byes help fresh teams really exploit the fatigue of worn down opponents. Many second round blowouts over the years weren’t necessarily caused by the greatness of the fresh host. They were caused by a tired visitor completely running out of gas because they hadn’t had a break in a couple of months. Bye teams can lose on their home fields, but it’s never because they ran out of gas! Remember that the hidden value of the bye involves the negatives that hit the team who DIDN’T have one.
Here is a good read for you ACE. I know that you have probally made your mind up already but a good read anyway.
http://www.toddstake.com/2013/01/03/anatomy-of-a-champion/
http://www.toddstake.com/2013/01/03/anatomy-of-a-champion/
[h=1]What Sharps are Betting in the NFL Playoffs Saturday and Sunday[/h]
It’s been an interesting week in Las Vegas because sharp betting has largely been overshadowed by what sharps might be waiting to bet after square money hits the board. We have three games that are sitting a half point away from a critical number as we go to press, and another that’s been sitting right on three, the most critical number of all. Let’s go game-by-game through the weekend NFL playoff schedule to see what the lack of early sharp action means about each game.
Taking the matchups in schedule order…
BALTIMORE at DENVER
Opening Line: Denver by 9.5, total of 45.5
Current Line: Denver by 9.5, total of 46.5
If sharps liked Denver here, the line would have moved to the key number of 10 immediately. The public is likely to support Peyton Manning and the rested home favorite at altitude once they start betting heavily this weekend. Any sharp who wanted the Broncos would have jumped in at the 9.5 now in advance of that action. You have to bet Denver -9.5 if you know -10 or higher is likely in the near future. That DIDN’T happen, which tells you that most sharps prefer Baltimore in a highly priced playoff game, and are waiting to see if they can get +10 or better before kickoff.
Now, it could turn out that the public doesn’t come in heavily on the Broncos because they’re scared off by the high line (less likely given the incredible number of favorites who have covered recent playoff and bowl games), or because the game’s relatively early start (first matchup of the weekend) keeps the overall handle lower than it might otherwise be. And, maybe sportsbooks are okay with being one-sided in the game, and would rather root for Baltimore +9.5 against the public then bring the 10 into play for sharps. Sharps aren’t guaranteed to see a 10. Those preferring Baltimore may have a choice to make before kickoff if there isn’t a move.
What we’re sure of now is that sharps aren’t in love with Denver, or that line would have moved quickly to the key number.
The total has seen support to the Over. Manning gets respect at home for his ability to point points on the board. Baltimore didn’t play an Over game last week vs, Indianapolis, but the game had Over yardage and ball movement. The math guys got an Over in their gradings here at 45.5 and 46.
GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Opening Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 45
Current Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 44.5
You regulars know how big the number three is in the NFL…and that it takes a lot of money to move a game off the three. Well, that’s magnified even more in a playoff game because the betting totals are even greater. Sportsbooks would prefer not to give SF fans a shot at the 49ers -2.5, or Packers fans a shot at +3.5.
Sharp and early square money have largely been coming in on the underdog here. You could tell that when many stores lifted the juice on the underdog. Instead of Green Bay +3 at 11/10, some places made you pay 12/10. And, late Thursday afternoon, we saw the first experimental moves to San Francisco -2.5 with -120 to take the favorite. Oddsmakers experimenting with this move had their fingers on the trigger to go back to three if heavy action on the Niners dictated that. This is something we may have to watch all weekend. That’s because:
*Even though SF is the favorite, the public generally supports Green Bay with enthusiasm
*Even though SF had a bye, it’s Green Bay who has the much more battled tested quarterback
We may end up with a tug of war between the 2.5 and the three. We may find that 2.5 is what comes closest to balancing the books because of public support for Green Bay. Watch this line carefully in the hours leading up to kickoff Saturday Night.
Sharps who bet totals showed slight interest in the Under. We hear that’s out of respect for San Francisco’s defense that will be even fresher after the bye week. Sources also tell us that sharps who like San Francisco’s defense but don’t trust the quarterback prefer to invest in SF’s defense by taking the Under rather than laying the points.
SEATTLE at ATLANTA
Opening Line: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 44.5
Current Line: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 46
Moving to Sunday now, we start with a game that’s hung under the key number of three in Las Vegas virtually the whole time it’s been posted (outside of a few outlier openers that had the Falcons at three initially). What’s interesting is that many offshore places have gone to the three in anticipation of square money betting the #1 seed at home off a bye as a cheap favorite.
Seattle did suffer a major injury to its defense, and that has influenced sentiment here according to our sources. Sharps who had loved Seattle to go the distance in the NFC brackets have backed off that just a bit. Sharps who loved Seattle to win outright in Atlanta are now down to seeing them as a value play rather than a big bet.
So, if you like Atlanta, you’d better act quick! If you like Seattle, you may be able to find an out before kickoff that will let you grab the full field goal.
The total is up 1.5 points because of Seattle’s defensive injury, and because of the team’s tendency to open things up more away from home this year. The offense has put up some good numbers in recent weeks, and the defense was more mortal away from the Pacific Northwest.
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND
Opening Line: New England by 9, total of 49
Current Line: New England by 9.5, total of 47.5
This game has a lot in common with Baltimore/Denver, so it’s a fitting bookend to the weekend. This line didn’t make it to the key number of 10. There was some initial support for New England at -9. We hear that some of that was position-taking from market players in anticipation of public money over the Pats before the last kickoff of the week. Though, there are some sharps who believe New England matches up very well here, and will create a near replay of the regular season meeting from a few weeks ago.
The stronger dynamic is that sharps are waiting to see if they can get underdog Houston at +10 or better. Sharps have respected this Texans team when healthy this year and last year. Those who prefer betting on the better defense also believe they have a big edge here. We should also note that sharps who have been fading New England in recent postseasons have made A LOT of money!
The total has dropped 1.5 points because Houston tends to play grinder games, because New England may focus more on running clock if they get a lead than they do during the regular season, and because there’s a chance for rain in the current forecast.
Summing up the weekend: Sharps are looking at all four dogs, particularly if they can get Baltimore and Houston in the AFC at +10 or better, and if they can get Seattle at +3. Sharps and the public alike may be clustered on Green Bay. Squares will probably be on favorites Denver, Atlanta, and New England. The totals guys like the Overs in Denver and Atlanta, but the Unders in San Francisco and New England. Those are all relatively light opinions from what we’re hearing, or there would have been more line movement.
It’s been an interesting week in Las Vegas because sharp betting has largely been overshadowed by what sharps might be waiting to bet after square money hits the board. We have three games that are sitting a half point away from a critical number as we go to press, and another that’s been sitting right on three, the most critical number of all. Let’s go game-by-game through the weekend NFL playoff schedule to see what the lack of early sharp action means about each game.
Taking the matchups in schedule order…
BALTIMORE at DENVER
Opening Line: Denver by 9.5, total of 45.5
Current Line: Denver by 9.5, total of 46.5
If sharps liked Denver here, the line would have moved to the key number of 10 immediately. The public is likely to support Peyton Manning and the rested home favorite at altitude once they start betting heavily this weekend. Any sharp who wanted the Broncos would have jumped in at the 9.5 now in advance of that action. You have to bet Denver -9.5 if you know -10 or higher is likely in the near future. That DIDN’T happen, which tells you that most sharps prefer Baltimore in a highly priced playoff game, and are waiting to see if they can get +10 or better before kickoff.
Now, it could turn out that the public doesn’t come in heavily on the Broncos because they’re scared off by the high line (less likely given the incredible number of favorites who have covered recent playoff and bowl games), or because the game’s relatively early start (first matchup of the weekend) keeps the overall handle lower than it might otherwise be. And, maybe sportsbooks are okay with being one-sided in the game, and would rather root for Baltimore +9.5 against the public then bring the 10 into play for sharps. Sharps aren’t guaranteed to see a 10. Those preferring Baltimore may have a choice to make before kickoff if there isn’t a move.
What we’re sure of now is that sharps aren’t in love with Denver, or that line would have moved quickly to the key number.
The total has seen support to the Over. Manning gets respect at home for his ability to point points on the board. Baltimore didn’t play an Over game last week vs, Indianapolis, but the game had Over yardage and ball movement. The math guys got an Over in their gradings here at 45.5 and 46.
GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Opening Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 45
Current Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 44.5
You regulars know how big the number three is in the NFL…and that it takes a lot of money to move a game off the three. Well, that’s magnified even more in a playoff game because the betting totals are even greater. Sportsbooks would prefer not to give SF fans a shot at the 49ers -2.5, or Packers fans a shot at +3.5.
Sharp and early square money have largely been coming in on the underdog here. You could tell that when many stores lifted the juice on the underdog. Instead of Green Bay +3 at 11/10, some places made you pay 12/10. And, late Thursday afternoon, we saw the first experimental moves to San Francisco -2.5 with -120 to take the favorite. Oddsmakers experimenting with this move had their fingers on the trigger to go back to three if heavy action on the Niners dictated that. This is something we may have to watch all weekend. That’s because:
*Even though SF is the favorite, the public generally supports Green Bay with enthusiasm
*Even though SF had a bye, it’s Green Bay who has the much more battled tested quarterback
We may end up with a tug of war between the 2.5 and the three. We may find that 2.5 is what comes closest to balancing the books because of public support for Green Bay. Watch this line carefully in the hours leading up to kickoff Saturday Night.
Sharps who bet totals showed slight interest in the Under. We hear that’s out of respect for San Francisco’s defense that will be even fresher after the bye week. Sources also tell us that sharps who like San Francisco’s defense but don’t trust the quarterback prefer to invest in SF’s defense by taking the Under rather than laying the points.
SEATTLE at ATLANTA
Opening Line: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 44.5
Current Line: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 46
Moving to Sunday now, we start with a game that’s hung under the key number of three in Las Vegas virtually the whole time it’s been posted (outside of a few outlier openers that had the Falcons at three initially). What’s interesting is that many offshore places have gone to the three in anticipation of square money betting the #1 seed at home off a bye as a cheap favorite.
Seattle did suffer a major injury to its defense, and that has influenced sentiment here according to our sources. Sharps who had loved Seattle to go the distance in the NFC brackets have backed off that just a bit. Sharps who loved Seattle to win outright in Atlanta are now down to seeing them as a value play rather than a big bet.
So, if you like Atlanta, you’d better act quick! If you like Seattle, you may be able to find an out before kickoff that will let you grab the full field goal.
The total is up 1.5 points because of Seattle’s defensive injury, and because of the team’s tendency to open things up more away from home this year. The offense has put up some good numbers in recent weeks, and the defense was more mortal away from the Pacific Northwest.
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND
Opening Line: New England by 9, total of 49
Current Line: New England by 9.5, total of 47.5
This game has a lot in common with Baltimore/Denver, so it’s a fitting bookend to the weekend. This line didn’t make it to the key number of 10. There was some initial support for New England at -9. We hear that some of that was position-taking from market players in anticipation of public money over the Pats before the last kickoff of the week. Though, there are some sharps who believe New England matches up very well here, and will create a near replay of the regular season meeting from a few weeks ago.
The stronger dynamic is that sharps are waiting to see if they can get underdog Houston at +10 or better. Sharps have respected this Texans team when healthy this year and last year. Those who prefer betting on the better defense also believe they have a big edge here. We should also note that sharps who have been fading New England in recent postseasons have made A LOT of money!
The total has dropped 1.5 points because Houston tends to play grinder games, because New England may focus more on running clock if they get a lead than they do during the regular season, and because there’s a chance for rain in the current forecast.
Summing up the weekend: Sharps are looking at all four dogs, particularly if they can get Baltimore and Houston in the AFC at +10 or better, and if they can get Seattle at +3. Sharps and the public alike may be clustered on Green Bay. Squares will probably be on favorites Denver, Atlanta, and New England. The totals guys like the Overs in Denver and Atlanta, but the Unders in San Francisco and New England. Those are all relatively light opinions from what we’re hearing, or there would have been more line movement.
very good read
[h=2]Anatomy of a Champion[/h]Posted January 3, 2013 By Todd
32,882 plays, 256 games, and 17 weeks later, the field to determine the 2013 Super Bowl Champion has been dwindled down to 12 teams. The past four months of NFL action has produced a sample size of data that, when analyzed appropriately, can provide a wealth of information and go a long way in evaluating the strength and abilities of the remaining teams vying for a championship.An effective method to predict future outcomes is to study past results of similar situations. Thus, the goal is to better understand the anatomy of a Super Bowl champion by identifying meaningful shared statistical characteristics of those teams. In this new age NFL where quarterback play and the passing game is as important as ever, here are three key statistical parameters each of the past four champs fall under.
- Pass Efficiency Ratio greater than 1.20: The ratio compares net yards per passing attempt and net yards per passing attempt allowed (NY/PA divided by NY/PA allowed). A ratio equal to one indicates for every one yard an offense gains per pass attempt, the defense allowed one yard per pass attempt. In today’s aerial league, this performance measure captures arguably the two most important team qualities; the ability to pass the football and the ability to stop the pass. This season only three teams, the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks, boast a pass efficiency ratio greater than 1.20.
- Positive Turnover Margin: This statistic is the total number of forced turnovers minus the total number of turnovers committed. The ability to take care of the football and force the opposing offense into turnovers remains a crucial determinate in the outcome of football games. In 2012 alone, the team that won the turnover battle is 162-42-1 (.794) SU and 154-48-3 (.762) ATS.
- Positive Sack Differential: This statistic is the difference between a team’s total sacks on defense and sacks allowed on offense. The number helps to quantify the ability of the offensive line to protect the quarterback and the defensive line to get after the opposing quarterback. Sacks, which result in the rare scenario where a team gains negative yardage on a play, can change the complexion of drives and ultimately have a significant effect on the final score.
Team | Pass Eff. | TO Margin | Sack Diff. |
| 2011 Giants | 1.20 | 7 | 17 |
| 2010 Packers | 1.31 | 10 | 9 |
| 2009 Saints | 1.24 | 11 | 15 |
| 2008 Steelers | 1.37 | 4 | 2 |
Team | Pass Eff. | TO Margin | Sack Diff. | SB Odds |
| Broncos | 1.42 | -1 | 31 | 5-2 |
| Patriots | 1.01 | 25 | 10 | 5-2 |
| 49ers | 1.30 | 9 | -3 | 9-2 |
| Falcons | 1.04 | 13 | 1 | 6-1 |
| Packers | 1.16 | 7 | -4 | 9-1 |
| Seahawks | 1.28 | 13 | 3 | 9-1 |
| Texans | 1.14 | 12 | 16 | 20-1 |
| Redskins | 1.06 | 17 | -1 | 25-1 |
| Ravens | 1.03 | 9 | -1 | 25-1 |
| Bengals | 1.09 | 4 | 5 | 50-1 |
| Vikings | 0.88 | -1 | 12 | 80-1 |
| Colts | 0.93 | -12 | -9 | 100-1 |
Lastly, the Denver Broncos were dominant this season in the pass efficiency ratio and sack differential, yet, their turnover margin finished below zero. Looking at the turnover data more closely, however, can reveal a more telling story. The Broncos forced 16 interceptions and surrendered just 11 picks but experienced a negative margin in fumbles. This is largely due to the fact that they had a fumble recovery percentage of just 35.5% (28[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFL). All in all, turnovers via interceptions are far more predictive than turnovers via fumbles. Couple this with the Broncos dominance in the other two statistical categories, and I have a great deal of confidence in the team’s Super Bowl prospects.
few more sheets
WinningPoints
http://www.mediafire.com/?msabuh6hks8oaxb
Sportsreporter
http://www.mediafire.com/?5wddiz3jor9qnd2
SportsReporter Mw
http://www.mediafire.com/?g9au6rswj57wo9p
WinningPoints
http://www.mediafire.com/?msabuh6hks8oaxb
Sportsreporter
http://www.mediafire.com/?5wddiz3jor9qnd2
SportsReporter Mw
http://www.mediafire.com/?g9au6rswj57wo9p
