HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING THIS WEEKEND’S NFL
MIAMI VS. OAKLAND (in England): Not much interest here beyond the fact that sharps want to fade Miami if it becomes locked in stone that the Dolphins are going to make a quarterback change. The Wise Guys tend to fade any prominent personnel move on the assumption that any starter is worth something, and a downgrade of even fractions of a point should be bet for value. The market price is hopping between Miami -4 and Miami -3.5 as this story sorts itself out. (Note that we’ll only discuss Over/Unders on moves of a point or larger)
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: We’ve flipped favorites here as Green Bay +1 has moved to Green Bay -2. Sharps do like betting quality teams in “must-win” situations if they see value. Typically there ISN’T value because teams are medium or large favorites. Here, the 1-2 Packers opened as a small dog, and are still laying less than a field goal. Note that Chicago +8 in two-team teasers (where you move the line six points per team) will be a popular choice if the line doesn’t move any more. Many sharps will be on Green Bay at pick=em or +1 and Chicago (+) in teasers because the math works both ways in their view.
BUFFALO AT HOUSTON: Support for the underdog here as Buffalo +4 has been bet down to the key number of three. Sharps have generally been thinking positively of both teams this season. Sources say they just don’t see Houston being ready to lay more than a field goal yet with this group of talent to anyone except the true dregs of the league. The Over/Under has been bet down from 42 to 41 amidst concerns about turf quality at this site.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: The health of Tennessee quarterback Jake Locker is looming large over this one. An opener of Indianapolis -7 has been bet up, off the key number to -7.5 or -8 at most sites. If Locker’s wrist injury keeps him out of the lineup, then Charlie Whitehurst would get the call. Sharps took positions on the favorite just in case, and are actually fairly confident right now that either Locker will play at something less than 100% or Whitehurst will start. That’s enough to keep the line over a field goal. And, you can bet that sharps will be all over Indianapolis in teasers that cross both the 7 and the 3 down to -1.5 or -2. Sportsbooks will be rooting hard for Tennessee this week.
CAROLINA AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore has been bet off the key number of three to -3.5 as a home favorite. We’ve told you in the past it takes a lot of money to move off the three and STAY there. So, even though it’s just a half a point, this is actually a serious move created by the Wise Guys. Baltimore has gotten the money the last two weeks vs. Pittsburgh and Cleveland. And, those of you who have been with us all season know the sharps entered 2014 very skeptical of Carolina. The total has been bet up two points from 39 to 41 because the influence of new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is starting to be felt in Baltimore’s games.
DETROIT AT NY JETS: The Lions opened at -1, and have been bet up to -1.5 or -2 in early action. There wasn’t enough passion to threaten the key number of three. And, frankly, sharps are okay if the line stays here because that opens up the Jets +7.5 of +8 for use in two-team teasers. Sources tell us this line didn’t move higher because Detroit is in a potential letdown spot after its win over Green Bay, while the Jets had better stats last week in their loss to Chicago than the final score would have indicated. New York will be a popular teaser team if the line doesn’t move from where it is now.
TAMPA BAY AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh opened at -8. Tampa Bay has been drawing support off the quarterback change to Mike Glennon, which has many stores now showing Pittsburgh -7.5 or -7. This is tricky for sharps. They’d love to have Pittsburgh stay in the teaser window while also getting value on the Bucs at +8. If the line falls down to Pittsburgh -7 everywhere, then the game is no longer a qualifier for classic basic teaser strategy because you’re supposed to CROSS the 3 and 7, not start there. Sportsbooks may choose to post a solid 7 on game day just to reduce potential teaser exposure. The total has been bet up from 43.5 to 45 because the Wise Guys think Glennon will provide a spark…because TB had a few extra days of preparation time…and because Pittsburgh’s defense has been very soft for long stretches so far this season.
JACKSONVILLE AT SAN DIEGO: Not much interest here, with different stores testing -13 or -13.5 to see if they can generate any interest just to get some money in play. This will be one of the least bet games of the day, though it’s late starting time will help it generate action of the public wins early and wants to re-invest. Squares almost always take home favorites. If a game-day move to -14 occurs, then sharps would come in at that price based on what sources are telling us.
PHILADELPHIA AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco has been bet up from -3.5 to -5, which surprised some market-watchers since the Eagles are undefeated and the Niners are struggling to find their form. Sources tell us that sharps are looking at injury issues for the Eagles, and the letdown/bounce-back scenarios in play for an undefeated visitor against a must-win host. We are hearing that some Philadelphia money is waiting to come in at +6 or better if the public also backs the home team. Because this is the marquee game of the late TV window, we may see a tug-of-war develop prior to kickoff between that late Philly money and squares on San Francisco. Sharps who liked the Niners are already in at -3.5, -4, and -4.5 and are satisfied with their positions.
ATLANTA AT MINNESOTA: Not much betting here, though some action could be hidden because it takes so much money to move off the key number of three. Atlanta opened -3, and will likely stay on the three because sharps are generally optimistic about Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback for the Vikings. They’re not ready to load up on him because he was fairly generic last week at New Orleans. But, they’re not going to fade him unless they see a lot of mistakes this week. We’re not mentioning Over/Unders much this week. Very little early interest, as oddsmakers now use many of the same algorithms that the quant guys do to make their numbers. Late weekend weather developments could inspire some betting. Remember that Minnesota is playing outdoors this season.
NEW ORLEANS AT DALLAS: Another game sitting right on the key number. New Orleans is -3 as we go to press, as they have been all week. Sources tell us that Dallas is likely to receive more action…particularly since sharps might play them just to try and drop the line into the teaser window. Squares have been losing so much on the Saints in road games that they’re less likely to come in strong here. The total has been bet up from 52.5 to 54 in what many observers believe will be a shootout.
NEW ENGLAND AT KANSAS CITY (Monday Night): Sharps have taken positions on Kansas City +4. We’re seeing a line of New England -3.5 everywhere right now. Sportsbooks are afraid of testing the three because a lot of money would flood the market on the popular Patriots at the key number. Vegas doesn’t want to be in the position of a game landing on 3 or 4 costing them a fortune. This is likely to be a heavily bet game…and the marked could be a lot of fun to watch on game day as sportsbooks decide how to handle all that action.
MIAMI VS. OAKLAND (in England): Not much interest here beyond the fact that sharps want to fade Miami if it becomes locked in stone that the Dolphins are going to make a quarterback change. The Wise Guys tend to fade any prominent personnel move on the assumption that any starter is worth something, and a downgrade of even fractions of a point should be bet for value. The market price is hopping between Miami -4 and Miami -3.5 as this story sorts itself out. (Note that we’ll only discuss Over/Unders on moves of a point or larger)
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: We’ve flipped favorites here as Green Bay +1 has moved to Green Bay -2. Sharps do like betting quality teams in “must-win” situations if they see value. Typically there ISN’T value because teams are medium or large favorites. Here, the 1-2 Packers opened as a small dog, and are still laying less than a field goal. Note that Chicago +8 in two-team teasers (where you move the line six points per team) will be a popular choice if the line doesn’t move any more. Many sharps will be on Green Bay at pick=em or +1 and Chicago (+) in teasers because the math works both ways in their view.
BUFFALO AT HOUSTON: Support for the underdog here as Buffalo +4 has been bet down to the key number of three. Sharps have generally been thinking positively of both teams this season. Sources say they just don’t see Houston being ready to lay more than a field goal yet with this group of talent to anyone except the true dregs of the league. The Over/Under has been bet down from 42 to 41 amidst concerns about turf quality at this site.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: The health of Tennessee quarterback Jake Locker is looming large over this one. An opener of Indianapolis -7 has been bet up, off the key number to -7.5 or -8 at most sites. If Locker’s wrist injury keeps him out of the lineup, then Charlie Whitehurst would get the call. Sharps took positions on the favorite just in case, and are actually fairly confident right now that either Locker will play at something less than 100% or Whitehurst will start. That’s enough to keep the line over a field goal. And, you can bet that sharps will be all over Indianapolis in teasers that cross both the 7 and the 3 down to -1.5 or -2. Sportsbooks will be rooting hard for Tennessee this week.
CAROLINA AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore has been bet off the key number of three to -3.5 as a home favorite. We’ve told you in the past it takes a lot of money to move off the three and STAY there. So, even though it’s just a half a point, this is actually a serious move created by the Wise Guys. Baltimore has gotten the money the last two weeks vs. Pittsburgh and Cleveland. And, those of you who have been with us all season know the sharps entered 2014 very skeptical of Carolina. The total has been bet up two points from 39 to 41 because the influence of new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is starting to be felt in Baltimore’s games.
DETROIT AT NY JETS: The Lions opened at -1, and have been bet up to -1.5 or -2 in early action. There wasn’t enough passion to threaten the key number of three. And, frankly, sharps are okay if the line stays here because that opens up the Jets +7.5 of +8 for use in two-team teasers. Sources tell us this line didn’t move higher because Detroit is in a potential letdown spot after its win over Green Bay, while the Jets had better stats last week in their loss to Chicago than the final score would have indicated. New York will be a popular teaser team if the line doesn’t move from where it is now.
TAMPA BAY AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh opened at -8. Tampa Bay has been drawing support off the quarterback change to Mike Glennon, which has many stores now showing Pittsburgh -7.5 or -7. This is tricky for sharps. They’d love to have Pittsburgh stay in the teaser window while also getting value on the Bucs at +8. If the line falls down to Pittsburgh -7 everywhere, then the game is no longer a qualifier for classic basic teaser strategy because you’re supposed to CROSS the 3 and 7, not start there. Sportsbooks may choose to post a solid 7 on game day just to reduce potential teaser exposure. The total has been bet up from 43.5 to 45 because the Wise Guys think Glennon will provide a spark…because TB had a few extra days of preparation time…and because Pittsburgh’s defense has been very soft for long stretches so far this season.
JACKSONVILLE AT SAN DIEGO: Not much interest here, with different stores testing -13 or -13.5 to see if they can generate any interest just to get some money in play. This will be one of the least bet games of the day, though it’s late starting time will help it generate action of the public wins early and wants to re-invest. Squares almost always take home favorites. If a game-day move to -14 occurs, then sharps would come in at that price based on what sources are telling us.
PHILADELPHIA AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco has been bet up from -3.5 to -5, which surprised some market-watchers since the Eagles are undefeated and the Niners are struggling to find their form. Sources tell us that sharps are looking at injury issues for the Eagles, and the letdown/bounce-back scenarios in play for an undefeated visitor against a must-win host. We are hearing that some Philadelphia money is waiting to come in at +6 or better if the public also backs the home team. Because this is the marquee game of the late TV window, we may see a tug-of-war develop prior to kickoff between that late Philly money and squares on San Francisco. Sharps who liked the Niners are already in at -3.5, -4, and -4.5 and are satisfied with their positions.
ATLANTA AT MINNESOTA: Not much betting here, though some action could be hidden because it takes so much money to move off the key number of three. Atlanta opened -3, and will likely stay on the three because sharps are generally optimistic about Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback for the Vikings. They’re not ready to load up on him because he was fairly generic last week at New Orleans. But, they’re not going to fade him unless they see a lot of mistakes this week. We’re not mentioning Over/Unders much this week. Very little early interest, as oddsmakers now use many of the same algorithms that the quant guys do to make their numbers. Late weekend weather developments could inspire some betting. Remember that Minnesota is playing outdoors this season.
NEW ORLEANS AT DALLAS: Another game sitting right on the key number. New Orleans is -3 as we go to press, as they have been all week. Sources tell us that Dallas is likely to receive more action…particularly since sharps might play them just to try and drop the line into the teaser window. Squares have been losing so much on the Saints in road games that they’re less likely to come in strong here. The total has been bet up from 52.5 to 54 in what many observers believe will be a shootout.
NEW ENGLAND AT KANSAS CITY (Monday Night): Sharps have taken positions on Kansas City +4. We’re seeing a line of New England -3.5 everywhere right now. Sportsbooks are afraid of testing the three because a lot of money would flood the market on the popular Patriots at the key number. Vegas doesn’t want to be in the position of a game landing on 3 or 4 costing them a fortune. This is likely to be a heavily bet game…and the marked could be a lot of fun to watch on game day as sportsbooks decide how to handle all that action.
