FROM MY CO-WORKERS AT DOCSPORTS....GOOD READ
October 7th, 2010
NFL Yards Per Point Rankings
By Robert Ferringo
Yards Per Point isn’t a statistic that is readily available for common fans and bettors to view. However, it is one of the tools that professional football handicappers use to gauge performance of NFL teams on both offense and defense.
Offensively, a low yards per point number encompasses a lot of “hidden” things that play a large part in determining games. Turnovers or kick returns that result in a short field and defensive and special teams touchdowns are some of the easiest things to point to. Inefficiency in the red zone and turnovers are two other factors that play a major role in cashing bets on Sunday that are correlated to a yards per point ranking.
The same can be said for the NFL defensive yards per point rankings. A quick scan of these numbers can point out which defenses have been the hardest to generate big plays against and help you find the units that really make opponents work for every point.
The average yards per point in the NFL is around 16.0 and teams in the 15’s and the 17’s are generally still within a standard deviation. However, utilizing NFL yards per point rankings as a handicapping tool is most effective when you scan the outliers and find which teams are overachieving (the Pittsburgh and New England offenses, for example) and underachieving (the Giants and Chargers defenses, for example).
Here is a look at the current NFL Yards Per Point rankings through Week 4:
YARDS PER POINT OFFENSE
Rank Team Yards Points YPPS
1 New England 1377 131 10.51
2 Tennessee 1142 98 11.65
3 Green Bay 1285 106 12.12
4 Pittsburgh 1078 86 12.53
5 N.Y. Jets 1358 106 12.81
6 Indianapolis 1644 117 14.05
7 Kansas City 966 68 14.21
8 Seattle 1109 75 14.79
9 Philadelphia 1456 95 15.33
10 Houston 1662 108 15.39
11 Buffalo 949 61 15.56
12 San Diego 1803 113 15.96
13 St. Louis 1249 77 16.22
14 Atlanta 1513 93 16.27
15 Detroit 1338 82 16.32
16 Jacksonville 1170 71 16.48
17 Chicago 1157 69 16.77
18 Arizona 996 58 17.17
19 Tampa Bay 864 50 17.28
20 New Orleans 1376 79 17.42
21 Cincinnati 1399 79 17.71
22 Washington 1313 73 17.99
23 Denver 1578 87 18.14
24 Cleveland 1238 68 18.21
25 Oakland 1417 76 18.64
26 Baltimore 1226 61 20.1
27 N.Y. Giants 1476 72 20.5
28 Miami 1358 66 20.58
29 Dallas 1175 54 21.76
30 Carolina 1033 46 22.46
31 Minnesota 985 43 22.91
32 San Francisco 1193 52 22.94
YARDS PER POINT DEFENSE
Rank Team Yards Points YPPA
1 St. Louis 1388 52 26.69
2 Kansas City 939 38 24.71
3 Pittsburgh 1156 50 23.12
4 Minnesota 829 38 21.82
5 Atlanta 1281 60 21.35
6 Washington 1624 79 20.56
7 N.Y. Jets 1232 61 20.2
8 Chicago 1329 68 19.54
9 Seattle 1499 77 19.47
10 New Orleans 1338 72 18.58
11 Cleveland 1378 77 17.9
12 Tennessee 1211 68 17.81
13 Baltimore 943 55 17.15
14 Tampa Bay 1005 59 17.03
15 Dallas 898 53 16.94
16 Green Bay 1214 73 16.63
17 New England 1538 96 16.02
18 Houston 1632 102 16
19 Indianapolis 1468 92 15.96
20 Philadelphia 1220 79 15.44
21 Carolina 1337 87 15.37
22 Cincinnati 1197 78 15.35
23 Denver 1291 85 15.19
24 Jacksonville 1619 111 14.59
25 Detroit 1501 106 14.16
26 San Diego 942 71 13.27
27 Arizona 1552 118 13.15
28 San Francisco 1343 103 13.04
29 Miami 1197 92 13.01
30 Buffalo 1531 125 12.25
31 N.Y. Giants 1028 88 11.68
32 Oakland 1223 107 11.43
October 7th, 2010
NFL Yards Per Point Rankings
By Robert Ferringo
Yards Per Point isn’t a statistic that is readily available for common fans and bettors to view. However, it is one of the tools that professional football handicappers use to gauge performance of NFL teams on both offense and defense.
Offensively, a low yards per point number encompasses a lot of “hidden” things that play a large part in determining games. Turnovers or kick returns that result in a short field and defensive and special teams touchdowns are some of the easiest things to point to. Inefficiency in the red zone and turnovers are two other factors that play a major role in cashing bets on Sunday that are correlated to a yards per point ranking.
The same can be said for the NFL defensive yards per point rankings. A quick scan of these numbers can point out which defenses have been the hardest to generate big plays against and help you find the units that really make opponents work for every point.
The average yards per point in the NFL is around 16.0 and teams in the 15’s and the 17’s are generally still within a standard deviation. However, utilizing NFL yards per point rankings as a handicapping tool is most effective when you scan the outliers and find which teams are overachieving (the Pittsburgh and New England offenses, for example) and underachieving (the Giants and Chargers defenses, for example).
Here is a look at the current NFL Yards Per Point rankings through Week 4:
YARDS PER POINT OFFENSE
Rank Team Yards Points YPPS
1 New England 1377 131 10.51
2 Tennessee 1142 98 11.65
3 Green Bay 1285 106 12.12
4 Pittsburgh 1078 86 12.53
5 N.Y. Jets 1358 106 12.81
6 Indianapolis 1644 117 14.05
7 Kansas City 966 68 14.21
8 Seattle 1109 75 14.79
9 Philadelphia 1456 95 15.33
10 Houston 1662 108 15.39
11 Buffalo 949 61 15.56
12 San Diego 1803 113 15.96
13 St. Louis 1249 77 16.22
14 Atlanta 1513 93 16.27
15 Detroit 1338 82 16.32
16 Jacksonville 1170 71 16.48
17 Chicago 1157 69 16.77
18 Arizona 996 58 17.17
19 Tampa Bay 864 50 17.28
20 New Orleans 1376 79 17.42
21 Cincinnati 1399 79 17.71
22 Washington 1313 73 17.99
23 Denver 1578 87 18.14
24 Cleveland 1238 68 18.21
25 Oakland 1417 76 18.64
26 Baltimore 1226 61 20.1
27 N.Y. Giants 1476 72 20.5
28 Miami 1358 66 20.58
29 Dallas 1175 54 21.76
30 Carolina 1033 46 22.46
31 Minnesota 985 43 22.91
32 San Francisco 1193 52 22.94
YARDS PER POINT DEFENSE
Rank Team Yards Points YPPA
1 St. Louis 1388 52 26.69
2 Kansas City 939 38 24.71
3 Pittsburgh 1156 50 23.12
4 Minnesota 829 38 21.82
5 Atlanta 1281 60 21.35
6 Washington 1624 79 20.56
7 N.Y. Jets 1232 61 20.2
8 Chicago 1329 68 19.54
9 Seattle 1499 77 19.47
10 New Orleans 1338 72 18.58
11 Cleveland 1378 77 17.9
12 Tennessee 1211 68 17.81
13 Baltimore 943 55 17.15
14 Tampa Bay 1005 59 17.03
15 Dallas 898 53 16.94
16 Green Bay 1214 73 16.63
17 New England 1538 96 16.02
18 Houston 1632 102 16
19 Indianapolis 1468 92 15.96
20 Philadelphia 1220 79 15.44
21 Carolina 1337 87 15.37
22 Cincinnati 1197 78 15.35
23 Denver 1291 85 15.19
24 Jacksonville 1619 111 14.59
25 Detroit 1501 106 14.16
26 San Diego 942 71 13.27
27 Arizona 1552 118 13.15
28 San Francisco 1343 103 13.04
29 Miami 1197 92 13.01
30 Buffalo 1531 125 12.25
31 N.Y. Giants 1028 88 11.68
32 Oakland 1223 107 11.43
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 5
Sunday, October 10
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DENVER (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at BUFFALO (0 - 4) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ST LOUIS (2 - 2) at DETROIT (0 - 4) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 108-140 ATS (-46.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 108-140 ATS (-46.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 78-109 ATS (-41.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 3) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) at CINCINNATI (2 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CHICAGO (3 - 1) at CAROLINA (0 - 4) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 0-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (2 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 127-96 ATS (+21.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NY GIANTS (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) at ARIZONA (2 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN DIEGO (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 3) - 10/10/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TENNESSEE (2 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 4) - 10/10/2010, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, October 11
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MINNESOTA (1 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 1) - 10/11/2010, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 5
Sunday, 10/10/2010
DENVER at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 2-13 ATS off an Over
BALTIMORE: 10-2 ATS at home off SU win as road dog
JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 1-11 ATS after a division game
BUFFALO: 20-8 Under after allowing 35+ points
KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 2-7 ATS vs. Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 16-4 Over off outright div loss as favorite
ST LOUIS at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 6-0 Under in conference road games
DETROIT: 33-53 ATS as favorite
ATLANTA at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 1-8 ATS off back to back wins
CLEVELAND: 9-0 Under vs. NFC South
TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 10-2 Under off home loss by 21+ pts
CINCINNATI: 0-6 ATS as home favorite
CHICAGO at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: 5-1 Under off double digit loss
CAROLINA: 6-0 Under off back to back losses
GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 41-18 Over after gaining 99 or less rushing yards BB games
WASHINGTON: 0-3 ATS vs. Green Bay
NY GIANTS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 2-8 ATS vs. AFC South
HOUSTON: 6-1 Under after gaining 175+ rushing yards
NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 17-5 Over Away off home division win
ARIZONA: 7-0 Over after gaining 200 or less yards/game L2 games
SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 14-4 ATS at Oakland
OAKLAND: 9-26 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less
TENNESSEE at DALLAS, 4:15 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 34-15 ATS in non-conf games
DALLAS: 16-5 Under off SU win as road dog
PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PHILADELPHIA: 14-4 Over off an Under
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-4 ATS vs. NFC East
Monday, 10/11/2010
MINNESOTA at NY JETS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
MINNESOTA: 22-9 Over Away off BB home games
NY JETS: 4-0 ATS vs. Minnesota
NFL
Week 5
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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 10
1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road
Washington is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 17 games at home
1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. BUFFALO
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Buffalo's last 16 games
Buffalo is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. HOUSTON
NY Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
Houston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
1:00 PM
DENVER vs. BALTIMORE
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Denver
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CAROLINA
Chicago is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
4:15 PM
TENNESSEE vs. DALLAS
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing San Diego
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
8:20 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Monday, October 11
8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NY JETS
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Minnesota
NY Jets are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games
NFL bye week trends
If you’ve been around ******* the last few seasons, you’ve probably been anxiously awaiting the annual articles highlighting the top team trends for pre- and post-bye week games. Those of you who subscribe to The Platinum Sheet were tipped off to the following top two trends from this past Sunday:
SEATTLE at ST. LOUIS
HOME TEAMS have won eight of the last nine SEATTLE pre-bye week games, and those teams are 6-3 ATS over that span.
Play on: ST. LOUIS SU & ATS
BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight PITTSBURGH pre-bye week games.Play on: BALTIMORE ATS
For those of you who may have missed both of those winners, the good news is that there are five bye-week angles for this coming week, which we’re giving to you right here, free of charge. Our next issue of The Platinum Sheet will contain a feature listing top handicapping angles for NFL Weeks 6, 7 and 8, so you’ll want to be sure not to miss that. In the meantime, here are the Week 5 angles that boast winning percentages over 65 percent:
TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI
ROAD TEAMS are 6-3 ATS in CINCINNATI pre-bye week games since 2001.
Play on: TAMPA BAY ATS
JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO
BUFFALO has not won a pre-bye week game since 1999 and is 2-8-1 ATS over that span.
Play on: JACKSONVILLE SU & ATS
CHICAGO at CAROLINA
UNDERDOGS have covered 12 of the last 13 CAROLINA pre-bye week games.
Play on: CAROLINA ATS
NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 5-1-1 OVER the total in its last seven pre-bye week games.
Play on: OVER the total
MINNESOTA at NEW YORK JETS
MINNESOTA is 10-2 OVER the total since 1998 in post-bye week games.
MINNESOTA is on a 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS run overall in post-bye week games.
Play on: MINNESOTA SU & ATS and OVER the total
Tech Trends - Week 5
October 5, 2010
DENVER at BALTIMORE... Ravens have covered 6 of past 7 since 2000 vs. Denver, winning and covering last four meetings at M&T Bank Stadium by 11 or more. Last 4 in series "under" as well. John Harbaugh 10-4 vs. line as home chalk since ‘08 (but 0-1 TY). Broncos "over" 8-1 last 9 since late LY. Tech edge-Ravens and "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.
JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO... Jags on 11-25 ATS run since beginning of ‘08 season (1-2 TY). Jags also "under" 8-4 last 12 away (though "over" 1-0 on road TY). Tech edge-slight to Bills, based on recent Jag woes.
KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Chiefs have covered their last 5 since late LY, all as dogs, winning the last four of those SU. Chiefs 17-8 as road dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.
ST. LOUIS at DETROIT... Rams won their only game of ‘09 at Lions’ expense, 17-10! Lions 3-1 vs. line TY but just 7-11 since ‘09. St. Louis has covered last 23 in 2010. Rams also "under" 7-2 their last 9 away. Tech edge-Rams and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
ATLANTA at CLEVELAND... Falcs 7-4 vs. line as “chalk” since LY, they’re also 13-7 overall vs. number since ‘09. Tech edge-Falcons, based on recent trends.
TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI... Marvin Lewis 1-1 as “chalk” TY but 5-18 last 23 in role, and just 3-10 last 13 as home favorite. TB "under" 12-7 for Raheem Morris since LY. Tech edge-Bucs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
CHICAGO at CAROLINA... Panthers "under" 14-7 last 21. Tech edge-"Under," based on recent team and "totals" trends.
GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON... Pack 37-19 vs. line last 56 on board since late ‘06. Pack also 22-9 last 31 vs. number on road. Note Pack "under" first 3 TY after "over" 32-19 the previous three years. Skins 9-18-1 vs. number last 28 at FedEx Field (1-1 for Shan). Tech edge-Packers, based on team trends.
NY GIANTS at HOUSTON... Giants 1-5 vs. line last 6 on road. G-Men also "over" 13-6 since beginning of ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and Texans, based on "total" and team trends.
NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA... Rematch of Saints’ 45-14 playoff win LY. Saints no covers first 4 TY and just 4-12-1 last 17 on board. Cards 6-1 last 7 as home dog for Whisenhunt. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on recent trends.
SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND... Bolts had covered 7 straight at Oakland before failing to get number in LY’s opener. Norv also 14-7 "over" last 21 since late ‘08. Raiders 14-34 vs. line last 48 at home. Tech edge-Chargers and "over," based on extended series and "totals" trends.
TENNESSEE at DALLAS… The old Oilers vs. Cowboys. Jeff Fisher dog marks not as impressive as earlier in career (15-14 in role since 2005). Wade Phillips only 27-27 vs. line with Cowboys, but he is 10-5 vs. line last 15 as host. Tech edge-slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.
PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO... Eagles have won and covered last 4 meetings since ‘05. If 49ers getting points, note Singletary 9-1 last 10 as dog. Tech edge-slight to Eagles, based on series trends.
MINNESOTA at NY JETS (Monday, October 11)... Favre returns to face the Jets. Note Vikes "under" first 3 in 2010. Vikes 2-1-1 as dog with Favre at controls. Jets have won and covered big last 3 TY. Tech edge-"Under," based on recent Vikings "totals" trends.
__________________
Here is an automated yards per point spreadsheet if anyone is interested:
http://users5.nofeehost.com/myline/Spreadsheets/Yardsperpoint.xls
http://users5.nofeehost.com/myline/Spreadsheets/Yardsperpoint.xls
aichdee...the teams in the points per yard sheet are ranked according to totals yards per game....i believe the offense points per yard....less is better...while defense...more is better...means on O a team only has to have so few yards to score...and on D....opponent has to go so many yards for each point...
since my spreadsheet pulls this info...i should be able to add a column or 2 for O and also for D so i can use these values in my rankings....agree?
i wish i was a friendly with excel as you ared1g1td1g1t<><>
since my spreadsheet pulls this info...i should be able to add a column or 2 for O and also for D so i can use these values in my rankings....agree?
i wish i was a friendly with excel as you ared1g1td1g1t<><>
