Hey Ace, first off I want to say thanks for providing us with all your insight and plays. I am a little bit confused though. On Docsports it says you have a 6 unit play on your game of the month yet you say you bet .2 units to 4 units on games. Do you put some more units on these kind of big plays? Is your play on the big matchup NY-NE a investment play? Thanks.
I asked him a similar question. Doc sports requires him to assign units to his plays for their website. But his personal unit max is 4 units which equals $4000. I know for a fact that his highest investment 99 play last week and this week were not personal 4 unit plays. I assume that a 4 unit would be equivalent to a "game of the year"
HERE YA GO ....This pretty much sums up ACE's long time theory.
It has exactly what you want Mr.Duke.
The pointspread matters in only about 17 percent of all games. In roughly 83 percent of the games, the team that wins the game also covers the spread. Favorites win and cover just under 48 percent of all games while underdogs win outright (and thus obviously cover), just over 31 percent of the time. About FOUR percent of games either end in pushes or are pick 'em games, which leaves the 17 percent of all games in which the favored team wins but by less than the pointspread.
Nick: What Sharps Think in the NFL
Submitted by nick on Fri, 2010-09-17 01:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING THIS WEEK IN THE NFL
Back for my weekly look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about in the NFL. It's a full schedule so let's jump right in.
KANSAS CITY AT CLEVELAND: Support for Kansas City off their Monday Night win, and news that Jake Delhomme was walking around in an ankle boot at practice. The opener of Cleveland at -3 has come down to -2 in many places. This puts Kansas City (+) in the teaser window. Sharps aren't always fond of asking a road team to perform well in a short preparation week. Circumstances are dictating that to this point. The total has gone up from 38 to 39.
BUFFALO AT GREEN BAY: Sharps took an early position on Green Bay -12 figuring the squares (the general public) would be all over the Packers at home against a team with no offense. We're seeing -13 now. If the public doesn't act, sharps will buy back some of that and root for a 12 or 13 finish (overloading their preferred side whether it's the dog or the favorite). If the public does act on Sunday and drives the line higher, we'll see a big try for a middle, and conceivably a "coming back over the top" bet on Buffalo +14.
BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: Baltimore has gone up from -1 to -2 based mostly on last week's results. Cincinnati didn't impress until they fell way behind at New England. Baltimore won outright at the Jets. This is another short week road team though, so sharps won't get too aggressive. If this game stays where it is, Cincinnati will be a popular play for sharps in two-point six-team teasers.
PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE: Interest here has been on the total, with an opener of 38 coming down to 37 or 36½. These two played a very low scoring game early last season, and that was when Ben Roethlisberger was playing rather than Dennis Dixon. May have been a bad opener from the sportsbooks.
PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT: Big move here on Philadelphia, as an opener of -3½ is up to -5½ or so as I write this. I've mentioned to you often in the past that an opener of -3½ is begging for underdog action. Once it was confirmed that Matthew Stafford would be out several weeks, sharps figured they should take a position knowing that squares would be on the Eagles and Michael Vick. I'm interested to see what the public does here on game day.
CHICAGO AT DALLAS: The game opened Dallas by 8½, which is right in the teaser window. Sharps basically LOVE Chicago plus the points AND Dallas -2 or -2½ in teasers. You might think it's weird for wagerers to like both sides of the same game. It's not about the teams, it's about line value. This game has such a high likelihood in the eyes of many of landing on either a 3 or a 7 that both sides make sense depending on the proposition. If the public hits Dallas on Sunday, sharps will buy back on the dog. If the public decides the line is too high, sharps will be heavily involved with teasers.
TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA: This was very common last year, and it will be common again soon. There's a line at -3 where the favorite gets hit at -3, and the dog gets hit at +3½...and each sportsbook has to make a decision for themselves how they want to be positioned on the game. The action isn't likely to split out evenly at any number. And, this isn't a game the public is going to pay much attention to. Many stores will use a moneyline to try to balance out their exposure. Sharps hit the total down to 39 from an opener of 40.
ARIZONA AT ATLANTA: Similar situation here except it's on the 7. Sharps like the dog Arizona at +7, but Atlanta at -6½ is getting bought back up in places. Neither team impressed last week, so it's unlikely sharps would want to take a big stand on either side. Under 44 was popular early because of those poor showings, with 43 or 42½ out there right now.
MIAMI AT MINNESOTA: Interest on the dog and Under here. Miami +6 has been bet down to +5½. And, that's interesting because you'd think squares would want rested Minnesota and Brett Favre at home at less than a TD. Sharps decided that wasn't a sure thing, and went ahead and took the six long before the weekend. The total has dropped from 42½ all the way down to 39½ off the low scoring games these teams played last week. Miami/Buffalo landed on 25. Minnesota/New Orleans landed on 23.
ST. LOUIS AT OAKLAND: Big support for underdog St. Louis. They opened at +6, and are now down to +3½. Sportsbooks are afraid to drop it to three because that would invite a lot of middle shooters on the favorite at a key number. Sam Bradford apparently impressed the sharps more than he impressed me last week. Or, there's a sense that Oakland is going to have another disastrous season. Don't think it's that yet because Oakland over its Regular Season Win total was popular with sharps.
SEATTLE AT DENVER: Nothing of note has happened here. Denver might get public support on Sunday because of the perception that they have a strong home field. Still Denver -3 and 40 where I'm looking.
HOUSTON AT WASHINGTON: Support on Houston -2 up to -3, which would have been a surprise a couple of weeks ago...but certainly isn't now that Houston looked GREAT vs. Indianapolis, while Washington couldn't score an offensive touchdown against Dallas. Note that sharps pay a lot of attention to the ground game. Houston was dominant in the running game last week. The total has dropped from 44½ to 43½ because of Washington's low scoring game with Dallas.
JACKSONVILLE AT SAN DIEGO: Support for the underdog Jaguars at +8½, +8, and +7½. We're seeing Jacksonville -7 most places now. Some of that may have been attempts to get the number out of the basic strategy teaser window. The last thing sportsbooks want is a bunch of people betting public teams like Dallas and San Diego at cheap prices at home on the same day. The Chargers do have some weakness though, and sharps have been clear about looking to exploit those.
NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS: The Patriots went from -1½ up to -3. Again, this is probably a mix of sharp sentiment and sportsbooks moving through the teaser window. The Jets and that great defense would be a popular teaser choice cross the three and the seven. New England looked much better than the Jets last week. Sharps wanted to bet that before the squares got out of bed. If the squares decide to pile on, some sharps will probably buy back some to shoot for a middle. Note the total has dropped two points from 40 down to 38.
NY GIANTS AT INDIANAPOLIS: Games that open up around a dead number like five don't often get early action. Nobody's worried about a teaser window. Sharps are pessimistic that taking position is going to matter unless there's very clearly an underpriced favorite in terms of public sentiment. Not much action here yet. The total has risen from 46½ to 48, which is interesting because most of the early action was on Unders across the schedule this week.
NEW ORLEANS AT SAN FRANCISCO: Here's another game that opened up around the five-spot. We'll see a lot of action on game day, as always for a Monday Nighter. Not much happening early.
Submitted by nick on Fri, 2010-09-17 01:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING THIS WEEK IN THE NFL
Back for my weekly look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about in the NFL. It's a full schedule so let's jump right in.
KANSAS CITY AT CLEVELAND: Support for Kansas City off their Monday Night win, and news that Jake Delhomme was walking around in an ankle boot at practice. The opener of Cleveland at -3 has come down to -2 in many places. This puts Kansas City (+) in the teaser window. Sharps aren't always fond of asking a road team to perform well in a short preparation week. Circumstances are dictating that to this point. The total has gone up from 38 to 39.
BUFFALO AT GREEN BAY: Sharps took an early position on Green Bay -12 figuring the squares (the general public) would be all over the Packers at home against a team with no offense. We're seeing -13 now. If the public doesn't act, sharps will buy back some of that and root for a 12 or 13 finish (overloading their preferred side whether it's the dog or the favorite). If the public does act on Sunday and drives the line higher, we'll see a big try for a middle, and conceivably a "coming back over the top" bet on Buffalo +14.
BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: Baltimore has gone up from -1 to -2 based mostly on last week's results. Cincinnati didn't impress until they fell way behind at New England. Baltimore won outright at the Jets. This is another short week road team though, so sharps won't get too aggressive. If this game stays where it is, Cincinnati will be a popular play for sharps in two-point six-team teasers.
PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE: Interest here has been on the total, with an opener of 38 coming down to 37 or 36½. These two played a very low scoring game early last season, and that was when Ben Roethlisberger was playing rather than Dennis Dixon. May have been a bad opener from the sportsbooks.
PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT: Big move here on Philadelphia, as an opener of -3½ is up to -5½ or so as I write this. I've mentioned to you often in the past that an opener of -3½ is begging for underdog action. Once it was confirmed that Matthew Stafford would be out several weeks, sharps figured they should take a position knowing that squares would be on the Eagles and Michael Vick. I'm interested to see what the public does here on game day.
CHICAGO AT DALLAS: The game opened Dallas by 8½, which is right in the teaser window. Sharps basically LOVE Chicago plus the points AND Dallas -2 or -2½ in teasers. You might think it's weird for wagerers to like both sides of the same game. It's not about the teams, it's about line value. This game has such a high likelihood in the eyes of many of landing on either a 3 or a 7 that both sides make sense depending on the proposition. If the public hits Dallas on Sunday, sharps will buy back on the dog. If the public decides the line is too high, sharps will be heavily involved with teasers.
TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA: This was very common last year, and it will be common again soon. There's a line at -3 where the favorite gets hit at -3, and the dog gets hit at +3½...and each sportsbook has to make a decision for themselves how they want to be positioned on the game. The action isn't likely to split out evenly at any number. And, this isn't a game the public is going to pay much attention to. Many stores will use a moneyline to try to balance out their exposure. Sharps hit the total down to 39 from an opener of 40.
ARIZONA AT ATLANTA: Similar situation here except it's on the 7. Sharps like the dog Arizona at +7, but Atlanta at -6½ is getting bought back up in places. Neither team impressed last week, so it's unlikely sharps would want to take a big stand on either side. Under 44 was popular early because of those poor showings, with 43 or 42½ out there right now.
MIAMI AT MINNESOTA: Interest on the dog and Under here. Miami +6 has been bet down to +5½. And, that's interesting because you'd think squares would want rested Minnesota and Brett Favre at home at less than a TD. Sharps decided that wasn't a sure thing, and went ahead and took the six long before the weekend. The total has dropped from 42½ all the way down to 39½ off the low scoring games these teams played last week. Miami/Buffalo landed on 25. Minnesota/New Orleans landed on 23.
ST. LOUIS AT OAKLAND: Big support for underdog St. Louis. They opened at +6, and are now down to +3½. Sportsbooks are afraid to drop it to three because that would invite a lot of middle shooters on the favorite at a key number. Sam Bradford apparently impressed the sharps more than he impressed me last week. Or, there's a sense that Oakland is going to have another disastrous season. Don't think it's that yet because Oakland over its Regular Season Win total was popular with sharps.
SEATTLE AT DENVER: Nothing of note has happened here. Denver might get public support on Sunday because of the perception that they have a strong home field. Still Denver -3 and 40 where I'm looking.
HOUSTON AT WASHINGTON: Support on Houston -2 up to -3, which would have been a surprise a couple of weeks ago...but certainly isn't now that Houston looked GREAT vs. Indianapolis, while Washington couldn't score an offensive touchdown against Dallas. Note that sharps pay a lot of attention to the ground game. Houston was dominant in the running game last week. The total has dropped from 44½ to 43½ because of Washington's low scoring game with Dallas.
JACKSONVILLE AT SAN DIEGO: Support for the underdog Jaguars at +8½, +8, and +7½. We're seeing Jacksonville -7 most places now. Some of that may have been attempts to get the number out of the basic strategy teaser window. The last thing sportsbooks want is a bunch of people betting public teams like Dallas and San Diego at cheap prices at home on the same day. The Chargers do have some weakness though, and sharps have been clear about looking to exploit those.
NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS: The Patriots went from -1½ up to -3. Again, this is probably a mix of sharp sentiment and sportsbooks moving through the teaser window. The Jets and that great defense would be a popular teaser choice cross the three and the seven. New England looked much better than the Jets last week. Sharps wanted to bet that before the squares got out of bed. If the squares decide to pile on, some sharps will probably buy back some to shoot for a middle. Note the total has dropped two points from 40 down to 38.
NY GIANTS AT INDIANAPOLIS: Games that open up around a dead number like five don't often get early action. Nobody's worried about a teaser window. Sharps are pessimistic that taking position is going to matter unless there's very clearly an underpriced favorite in terms of public sentiment. Not much action here yet. The total has risen from 46½ to 48, which is interesting because most of the early action was on Unders across the schedule this week.
NEW ORLEANS AT SAN FRANCISCO: Here's another game that opened up around the five-spot. We'll see a lot of action on game day, as always for a Monday Nighter. Not much happening early.
MY wife knows I work way to much...so....my birthday Is on tuesday
wife taking me today for a get away for my birthday
and will not be around for the next 28 hours
she ask me if I could be without a laptop for that long..............................hmmm.....we will see......back on Sunday before the Kickoffs
wife taking me today for a get away for my birthday
and will not be around for the next 28 hours
she ask me if I could be without a laptop for that long..............................hmmm.....we will see......back on Sunday before the Kickoffs
WOO is saying that "IF" a dog covers , they will win 83% of the games.
MY source is breaking it down a little deeper .
Favs win and cover 47.9% of all games.
Dogs win and obviously cover 31.1% of all games
ALL games push 4% of the time .
that leaves 17% that the spread actually takes/or gives $$$$.
MY OPINION:
That really should not play a part in your capping the NFL. Its just a very interesting fact and you should not think that being able to simply pick the winners is going to make you rich. It is not . that 17% is 1out of every 6 games of ALL games.
So if you picked the straight up winner 65% of all games for the season , would you be successful betting flat ?
NO, you would be hitting at 48% and you know it takes 53% to break even .
break it down a little more...
you would have to hit at 70% picking straight up winners just to break even because that 17% of all games that matter that looks so inviting is what will eat your lunch.
bet the line , not the team. If that 17% was 1 sided ( dogs or favs ) it would be a significant tool . It is not 1 sided and it takes into account both dogs and favs.
That is just my opinion tho . Take it how you want . My goal is to exploit the line, not ignore it !!!!!
