cbb 23-22 +2.5 -$107
NBA 31-25 +7,5 +$564
in the NBA i do it one way and will not change....but there are bumps in the road from time to time...its a long season
CBB i have made a few adjustment....as you said I'm in a funk the last two week
its hard to have a profit and lose it...its harder to be 15-25 and down all season!
it will turn
View attachment 11383this is the formula
total yards avg -325 div by 7.5 will should you the edge
total yards avg -325 div by 7.5 will should you the edge
Well I was pretty close considering I didn't have the formula! I'm trying to figure out now how you got the formula. Is 325 the league avg. in total yards? Why 7.5? Don't tell me, point me in the right direction....I'll figure it out. BTW Ace, thanks for sharing, without the info on Dogs, Away and over I'd be starting from scratch. Like to see more guys trying to figure this stuff out rather than waiting for a handout, so what if you post the wrong answer, if you don't ask questions you'll never learn anything................Bob
Well the 7.5 has to be number of games played, that's obvious to get a point total. Since 11 games have been played is it a way to throw out an extremely high scoring or low scoring games to get a true average? If so that means that the 7.5 would increase as the season progresses correct or am I walking down a wrong path here Ace?
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich
WHAT SHARPS THINK ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL ACTION
We have a big weekend of NFL action ahead. Let's see what the sharps have been doing with their early week betting. As always, games are presented in rotation order...
BUFFALO AT MINNESOTA: Support for the Dog and Under at the opening numbers. Buffalo opened at +6½, but is down to +5½ given their strong cover tendencies of the last several weeks. The total opened at 45, but is down to 44 based on Minnesota's more conservative, defensive-minded play last week. Note that Overs have been getting hit hard the past few weeks...so any sharp bet on the Under is actually a very strong opinion.
CLEVELAND AT MIAMI: Miami is down a half a point, from an opener of -5½ down to -5. Cleveland has been getting a lot of respect from sharps this year. They like the new look offense and the attitude of the team. They're more fond of Colt McCoy than Jake Delhomme as a dog though, which is why this line didn't come down further. Nothing of interest has happened yet with the total. If I don't mention a total in a game from this point forward, assume that the sharps haven't shown any interest.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: Not much happening here because of the quarterback situation for Tennessee. We may see some sharp money hit on game day once the picture is clearer. Tennessee is -3 with a total 43½.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Big support for Kansas City, as an opener of -6½ has jumped all the way to -9. And, no, that's not because Kyle Orton suffered an injury. It was just a very bad opening line. Kansas City has played very well vs. bad defenses, and is now in a revenge against a divisional rival. Sharps loaded up at anything below -9. Should the public drive the line to -10, some of the earliest money may shoot a middle at the 7-10 window. Right now, sharps are happy with their positions. Denver's been fading, and Kansas City has a chip on its shoulder. The total is up a point and a half from 47 to 48½ on the assumption that KC's offense will have another good day.
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS: Support for the Dog and Under, with Washington +8 dropping to +7, and an opening total of 45½ coming down to 43. Washington has been playing competitive low scoring games, so those openers were a bit of a surprise. Oddsmakers have been overshooting on the NY Giants for a few weeks now. Sharps will keep fading the G-men until they cover. Big move on the Under considering all the Overs we've been having. Washington doesn't play many shootouts.
CHICAGO AT DETROIT: Chicago is up to -5 from -3½ because of the injury to the Detroit quarterback. The Bears will be facing a third-teamer in Drew Stanton. And, they've looked good the last two weeks too. Sharps have always loved this Chicago defense. If Jay Cutler comes around, the sharps will ride the Bears for awhile.
SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Some support, but not passionate for the Dog and Under. San Francisco opened at +9½, and is down to -9. Sharps apparently don't believe the public will hit the Packers Sunday since SF looked so good this past Monday Night. The total is down to 40½ from 41½. I'm guessing that sharps have been reading weather reports given their new fondness for Unders in the cooler cities. It's been an Over season thus far.
NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI: Another Northern game where the total has dropped, with an opener of 47 falling to 45. Sometimes I think sportsbooks should just run the weather channel on the big screens along with sports telecasts. Of course, this would help sharps even more...and that's the last thing sportsbooks want to do on Over/Under bets. No move yet on the team side, with New Orleans laying 6½. Usually when a number hangs that close to a key number without moving...sharps prefer the underdog and are hoping public money will give them the extra half point before kickoff. Had the sharps liked New Orleans to win big, they would have jumped in at -6½ because it's right below the key number of seven.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: Atlanta opened at -2½, and jumped right to -3, where it's sat ever since. Interesting that sharps didn't like Atlanta at the field goal. They did see value just below that critical number...and they were also sure the public would come in and take the "hot" team that's trying to earn home field through the playoffs. Betting value on favorites tends to disappear quickly in the NFL market.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: The total has dropped a point and a half from 46½ down to 45. San Diego isn't a cold weather city, so this may be related to Jason Campbell getting the start at quarterback for the Raiders. San Diego opened at -12½, and got bet up to -13 quickly. That's sharps taking position with a game that may go higher. The public loves to bet San Diego at home because they win so many blowouts. Sharps are hoping for a 12½ to 14 middle opportunity. And, sticking with -12½ with the early bets may not be a bad option considering how well San Diego has been playing lately. You also have the superior team in a revenge spot, which some sharps respect.
CAROLINA AT SEATTLE: Seattle's been playing so badly lately that sharps had to take Carolina +6½ on the opener. No way the public drives Seattle higher. Take what you can get with a line that should settle closer to +5½ or +5 was the sharp strategy here. Carolina hung tough with Cleveland last week as a road dog...and Cleveland's been playing better than Seattle for much of the year.
DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS: I was a bit surprised that an opening line of Indy -5 went up to -5½. The Colts are injured, and not impressing at all as favorites lately. The support didn't continue at 5½, and we're not talking about key numbers here. May have just been a few rogue sharps. I would expect to see some serious Dallas money at +6.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: St. Louis got bet to -3½ as a road favorite from -3. It's important to note that it takes a lot of money to move off a three in Vegas. And...no money came in on the dog after the move! So, that's a very strong endorsement of the Rams at the original price. Support didn't continue at -3½...but the important thing to note is that it wasn't coming in on the dog at +3½ either. The total is up a point from 42 to 43.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore opened at -2½, but moved to -3 very quickly. I think three is the right number based on the competitive series history. Sharps would jump all over Pittsburgh at +3½, and possibly everyone would jump on Baltimore at -2½ (except for basic strategy teaser players, who would max out on Pittsburgh +8½ in two-teamers). I'm surprised it opened below the key number. Early money rectified that.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: We've seen a move from New England -3 to -3½, without countervailing support for the road dog. So, as you've learned already, that's pretty strong support for the Patriots. New England has been playing better ball the past several weeks. But, NYJ usually isn't getting points. I know we're all looking forward to this one.
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich
WHAT SHARPS THINK ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL ACTION
We have a big weekend of NFL action ahead. Let's see what the sharps have been doing with their early week betting. As always, games are presented in rotation order...
BUFFALO AT MINNESOTA: Support for the Dog and Under at the opening numbers. Buffalo opened at +6½, but is down to +5½ given their strong cover tendencies of the last several weeks. The total opened at 45, but is down to 44 based on Minnesota's more conservative, defensive-minded play last week. Note that Overs have been getting hit hard the past few weeks...so any sharp bet on the Under is actually a very strong opinion.
CLEVELAND AT MIAMI: Miami is down a half a point, from an opener of -5½ down to -5. Cleveland has been getting a lot of respect from sharps this year. They like the new look offense and the attitude of the team. They're more fond of Colt McCoy than Jake Delhomme as a dog though, which is why this line didn't come down further. Nothing of interest has happened yet with the total. If I don't mention a total in a game from this point forward, assume that the sharps haven't shown any interest.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: Not much happening here because of the quarterback situation for Tennessee. We may see some sharp money hit on game day once the picture is clearer. Tennessee is -3 with a total 43½.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Big support for Kansas City, as an opener of -6½ has jumped all the way to -9. And, no, that's not because Kyle Orton suffered an injury. It was just a very bad opening line. Kansas City has played very well vs. bad defenses, and is now in a revenge against a divisional rival. Sharps loaded up at anything below -9. Should the public drive the line to -10, some of the earliest money may shoot a middle at the 7-10 window. Right now, sharps are happy with their positions. Denver's been fading, and Kansas City has a chip on its shoulder. The total is up a point and a half from 47 to 48½ on the assumption that KC's offense will have another good day.
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS: Support for the Dog and Under, with Washington +8 dropping to +7, and an opening total of 45½ coming down to 43. Washington has been playing competitive low scoring games, so those openers were a bit of a surprise. Oddsmakers have been overshooting on the NY Giants for a few weeks now. Sharps will keep fading the G-men until they cover. Big move on the Under considering all the Overs we've been having. Washington doesn't play many shootouts.
CHICAGO AT DETROIT: Chicago is up to -5 from -3½ because of the injury to the Detroit quarterback. The Bears will be facing a third-teamer in Drew Stanton. And, they've looked good the last two weeks too. Sharps have always loved this Chicago defense. If Jay Cutler comes around, the sharps will ride the Bears for awhile.
SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Some support, but not passionate for the Dog and Under. San Francisco opened at +9½, and is down to -9. Sharps apparently don't believe the public will hit the Packers Sunday since SF looked so good this past Monday Night. The total is down to 40½ from 41½. I'm guessing that sharps have been reading weather reports given their new fondness for Unders in the cooler cities. It's been an Over season thus far.
NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI: Another Northern game where the total has dropped, with an opener of 47 falling to 45. Sometimes I think sportsbooks should just run the weather channel on the big screens along with sports telecasts. Of course, this would help sharps even more...and that's the last thing sportsbooks want to do on Over/Under bets. No move yet on the team side, with New Orleans laying 6½. Usually when a number hangs that close to a key number without moving...sharps prefer the underdog and are hoping public money will give them the extra half point before kickoff. Had the sharps liked New Orleans to win big, they would have jumped in at -6½ because it's right below the key number of seven.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: Atlanta opened at -2½, and jumped right to -3, where it's sat ever since. Interesting that sharps didn't like Atlanta at the field goal. They did see value just below that critical number...and they were also sure the public would come in and take the "hot" team that's trying to earn home field through the playoffs. Betting value on favorites tends to disappear quickly in the NFL market.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: The total has dropped a point and a half from 46½ down to 45. San Diego isn't a cold weather city, so this may be related to Jason Campbell getting the start at quarterback for the Raiders. San Diego opened at -12½, and got bet up to -13 quickly. That's sharps taking position with a game that may go higher. The public loves to bet San Diego at home because they win so many blowouts. Sharps are hoping for a 12½ to 14 middle opportunity. And, sticking with -12½ with the early bets may not be a bad option considering how well San Diego has been playing lately. You also have the superior team in a revenge spot, which some sharps respect.
CAROLINA AT SEATTLE: Seattle's been playing so badly lately that sharps had to take Carolina +6½ on the opener. No way the public drives Seattle higher. Take what you can get with a line that should settle closer to +5½ or +5 was the sharp strategy here. Carolina hung tough with Cleveland last week as a road dog...and Cleveland's been playing better than Seattle for much of the year.
DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS: I was a bit surprised that an opening line of Indy -5 went up to -5½. The Colts are injured, and not impressing at all as favorites lately. The support didn't continue at 5½, and we're not talking about key numbers here. May have just been a few rogue sharps. I would expect to see some serious Dallas money at +6.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: St. Louis got bet to -3½ as a road favorite from -3. It's important to note that it takes a lot of money to move off a three in Vegas. And...no money came in on the dog after the move! So, that's a very strong endorsement of the Rams at the original price. Support didn't continue at -3½...but the important thing to note is that it wasn't coming in on the dog at +3½ either. The total is up a point from 42 to 43.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore opened at -2½, but moved to -3 very quickly. I think three is the right number based on the competitive series history. Sharps would jump all over Pittsburgh at +3½, and possibly everyone would jump on Baltimore at -2½ (except for basic strategy teaser players, who would max out on Pittsburgh +8½ in two-teamers). I'm surprised it opened below the key number. Early money rectified that.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: We've seen a move from New England -3 to -3½, without countervailing support for the road dog. So, as you've learned already, that's pretty strong support for the Patriots. New England has been playing better ball the past several weeks. But, NYJ usually isn't getting points. I know we're all looking forward to this one.
Ace, thanks for all the info you share here in "the free zone". Your sharing has been very valuable to a lot of people. I, for one, am very thankful for all the info shared in the past couple of years. But it seems this year was a hell of a lot more helpful than normal. Maybe it is the fact that I am learning how to cap better. Just wanted to say "thanks dude" from all of us eager amatuers out here. Can't tell you how much you have helped me, and a lot of others I'm sure. Here's to you :toast: PS: the "my line" tool has been an awesome addition to my capping this year. The explanations on this system in the beginning of the year, and then throughout the year helped a ton!!
WHAT SHARPS THINK ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL ACTION
We have a big weekend of NFL action ahead. Let's see what the sharps have been doing with their early week betting. As always, games are presented in rotation order...
BUFFALO AT MINNESOTA: Support for the Dog and Under at the opening numbers. Buffalo opened at +6½, but is down to +5½ given their strong cover tendencies of the last several weeks. The total opened at 45, but is down to 44 based on Minnesota's more conservative, defensive-minded play last week. Note that Overs have been getting hit hard the past few weeks...so any sharp bet on the Under is actually a very strong opinion.
CLEVELAND AT MIAMI: Miami is down a half a point, from an opener of -5½ down to -5. Cleveland has been getting a lot of respect from sharps this year. They like the new look offense and the attitude of the team. They're more fond of Colt McCoy than Jake Delhomme as a dog though, which is why this line didn't come down further. Nothing of interest has happened yet with the total. If I don't mention a total in a game from this point forward, assume that the sharps haven't shown any interest.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: Not much happening here because of the quarterback situation for Tennessee. We may see some sharp money hit on game day once the picture is clearer. Tennessee is -3 with a total 43½.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Big support for Kansas City, as an opener of -6½ has jumped all the way to -9. And, no, that's not because Kyle Orton suffered an injury. It was just a very bad opening line. Kansas City has played very well vs. bad defenses, and is now in a revenge against a divisional rival. Sharps loaded up at anything below -9. Should the public drive the line to -10, some of the earliest money may shoot a middle at the 7-10 window. Right now, sharps are happy with their positions. Denver's been fading, and Kansas City has a chip on its shoulder. The total is up a point and a half from 47 to 48½ on the assumption that KC's offense will have another good day.
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS: Support for the Dog and Under, with Washington +8 dropping to +7, and an opening total of 45½ coming down to 43. Washington has been playing competitive low scoring games, so those openers were a bit of a surprise. Oddsmakers have been overshooting on the NY Giants for a few weeks now. Sharps will keep fading the G-men until they cover. Big move on the Under considering all the Overs we've been having. Washington doesn't play many shootouts.
CHICAGO AT DETROIT: Chicago is up to -5 from -3½ because of the injury to the Detroit quarterback. The Bears will be facing a third-teamer in Drew Stanton. And, they've looked good the last two weeks too. Sharps have always loved this Chicago defense. If Jay Cutler comes around, the sharps will ride the Bears for awhile.
SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Some support, but not passionate for the Dog and Under. San Francisco opened at +9½, and is down to -9. Sharps apparently don't believe the public will hit the Packers Sunday since SF looked so good this past Monday Night. The total is down to 40½ from 41½. I'm guessing that sharps have been reading weather reports given their new fondness for Unders in the cooler cities. It's been an Over season thus far.
NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI: Another Northern game where the total has dropped, with an opener of 47 falling to 45. Sometimes I think sportsbooks should just run the weather channel on the big screens along with sports telecasts. Of course, this would help sharps even more...and that's the last thing sportsbooks want to do on Over/Under bets. No move yet on the team side, with New Orleans laying 6½. Usually when a number hangs that close to a key number without moving...sharps prefer the underdog and are hoping public money will give them the extra half point before kickoff. Had the sharps liked New Orleans to win big, they would have jumped in at -6½ because it's right below the key number of seven.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: Atlanta opened at -2½, and jumped right to -3, where it's sat ever since. Interesting that sharps didn't like Atlanta at the field goal. They did see value just below that critical number...and they were also sure the public would come in and take the "hot" team that's trying to earn home field through the playoffs. Betting value on favorites tends to disappear quickly in the NFL market.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: The total has dropped a point and a half from 46½ down to 45. San Diego isn't a cold weather city, so this may be related to Jason Campbell getting the start at quarterback for the Raiders. San Diego opened at -12½, and got bet up to -13 quickly. That's sharps taking position with a game that may go higher. The public loves to bet San Diego at home because they win so many blowouts. Sharps are hoping for a 12½ to 14 middle opportunity. And, sticking with -12½ with the early bets may not be a bad option considering how well San Diego has been playing lately. You also have the superior team in a revenge spot, which some sharps respect.
CAROLINA AT SEATTLE: Seattle's been playing so badly lately that sharps had to take Carolina +6½ on the opener. No way the public drives Seattle higher. Take what you can get with a line that should settle closer to +5½ or +5 was the sharp strategy here. Carolina hung tough with Cleveland last week as a road dog...and Cleveland's been playing better than Seattle for much of the year.
DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS: I was a bit surprised that an opening line of Indy -5 went up to -5½. The Colts are injured, and not impressing at all as favorites lately. The support didn't continue at 5½, and we're not talking about key numbers here. May have just been a few rogue sharps. I would expect to see some serious Dallas money at +6.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: St. Louis got bet to -3½ as a road favorite from -3. It's important to note that it takes a lot of money to move off a three in Vegas. And...no money came in on the dog after the move! So, that's a very strong endorsement of the Rams at the original price. Support didn't continue at -3½...but the important thing to note is that it wasn't coming in on the dog at +3½ either. The total is up a point from 42 to 43.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore opened at -2½, but moved to -3 very quickly. I think three is the right number based on the competitive series history. Sharps would jump all over Pittsburgh at +3½, and possibly everyone would jump on Baltimore at -2½ (except for basic strategy teaser players, who would max out on Pittsburgh +8½ in two-teamers). I'm surprised it opened below the key number. Early money rectified that.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: We've seen a move from New England -3 to -3½, without countervailing support for the road dog. So, as you've learned already, that's pretty strong support for the Patriots. New England has been playing better ball the past several weeks. But, NYJ usually isn't getting points. I know we're all looking forward to this one.
We have a big weekend of NFL action ahead. Let's see what the sharps have been doing with their early week betting. As always, games are presented in rotation order...
BUFFALO AT MINNESOTA: Support for the Dog and Under at the opening numbers. Buffalo opened at +6½, but is down to +5½ given their strong cover tendencies of the last several weeks. The total opened at 45, but is down to 44 based on Minnesota's more conservative, defensive-minded play last week. Note that Overs have been getting hit hard the past few weeks...so any sharp bet on the Under is actually a very strong opinion.
CLEVELAND AT MIAMI: Miami is down a half a point, from an opener of -5½ down to -5. Cleveland has been getting a lot of respect from sharps this year. They like the new look offense and the attitude of the team. They're more fond of Colt McCoy than Jake Delhomme as a dog though, which is why this line didn't come down further. Nothing of interest has happened yet with the total. If I don't mention a total in a game from this point forward, assume that the sharps haven't shown any interest.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: Not much happening here because of the quarterback situation for Tennessee. We may see some sharp money hit on game day once the picture is clearer. Tennessee is -3 with a total 43½.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Big support for Kansas City, as an opener of -6½ has jumped all the way to -9. And, no, that's not because Kyle Orton suffered an injury. It was just a very bad opening line. Kansas City has played very well vs. bad defenses, and is now in a revenge against a divisional rival. Sharps loaded up at anything below -9. Should the public drive the line to -10, some of the earliest money may shoot a middle at the 7-10 window. Right now, sharps are happy with their positions. Denver's been fading, and Kansas City has a chip on its shoulder. The total is up a point and a half from 47 to 48½ on the assumption that KC's offense will have another good day.
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS: Support for the Dog and Under, with Washington +8 dropping to +7, and an opening total of 45½ coming down to 43. Washington has been playing competitive low scoring games, so those openers were a bit of a surprise. Oddsmakers have been overshooting on the NY Giants for a few weeks now. Sharps will keep fading the G-men until they cover. Big move on the Under considering all the Overs we've been having. Washington doesn't play many shootouts.
CHICAGO AT DETROIT: Chicago is up to -5 from -3½ because of the injury to the Detroit quarterback. The Bears will be facing a third-teamer in Drew Stanton. And, they've looked good the last two weeks too. Sharps have always loved this Chicago defense. If Jay Cutler comes around, the sharps will ride the Bears for awhile.
SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Some support, but not passionate for the Dog and Under. San Francisco opened at +9½, and is down to -9. Sharps apparently don't believe the public will hit the Packers Sunday since SF looked so good this past Monday Night. The total is down to 40½ from 41½. I'm guessing that sharps have been reading weather reports given their new fondness for Unders in the cooler cities. It's been an Over season thus far.
NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI: Another Northern game where the total has dropped, with an opener of 47 falling to 45. Sometimes I think sportsbooks should just run the weather channel on the big screens along with sports telecasts. Of course, this would help sharps even more...and that's the last thing sportsbooks want to do on Over/Under bets. No move yet on the team side, with New Orleans laying 6½. Usually when a number hangs that close to a key number without moving...sharps prefer the underdog and are hoping public money will give them the extra half point before kickoff. Had the sharps liked New Orleans to win big, they would have jumped in at -6½ because it's right below the key number of seven.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: Atlanta opened at -2½, and jumped right to -3, where it's sat ever since. Interesting that sharps didn't like Atlanta at the field goal. They did see value just below that critical number...and they were also sure the public would come in and take the "hot" team that's trying to earn home field through the playoffs. Betting value on favorites tends to disappear quickly in the NFL market.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: The total has dropped a point and a half from 46½ down to 45. San Diego isn't a cold weather city, so this may be related to Jason Campbell getting the start at quarterback for the Raiders. San Diego opened at -12½, and got bet up to -13 quickly. That's sharps taking position with a game that may go higher. The public loves to bet San Diego at home because they win so many blowouts. Sharps are hoping for a 12½ to 14 middle opportunity. And, sticking with -12½ with the early bets may not be a bad option considering how well San Diego has been playing lately. You also have the superior team in a revenge spot, which some sharps respect.
CAROLINA AT SEATTLE: Seattle's been playing so badly lately that sharps had to take Carolina +6½ on the opener. No way the public drives Seattle higher. Take what you can get with a line that should settle closer to +5½ or +5 was the sharp strategy here. Carolina hung tough with Cleveland last week as a road dog...and Cleveland's been playing better than Seattle for much of the year.
DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS: I was a bit surprised that an opening line of Indy -5 went up to -5½. The Colts are injured, and not impressing at all as favorites lately. The support didn't continue at 5½, and we're not talking about key numbers here. May have just been a few rogue sharps. I would expect to see some serious Dallas money at +6.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: St. Louis got bet to -3½ as a road favorite from -3. It's important to note that it takes a lot of money to move off a three in Vegas. And...no money came in on the dog after the move! So, that's a very strong endorsement of the Rams at the original price. Support didn't continue at -3½...but the important thing to note is that it wasn't coming in on the dog at +3½ either. The total is up a point from 42 to 43.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore opened at -2½, but moved to -3 very quickly. I think three is the right number based on the competitive series history. Sharps would jump all over Pittsburgh at +3½, and possibly everyone would jump on Baltimore at -2½ (except for basic strategy teaser players, who would max out on Pittsburgh +8½ in two-teamers). I'm surprised it opened below the key number. Early money rectified that.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: We've seen a move from New England -3 to -3½, without countervailing support for the road dog. So, as you've learned already, that's pretty strong support for the Patriots. New England has been playing better ball the past several weeks. But, NYJ usually isn't getting points. I know we're all looking forward to this one.
